Mini Theme 2116 - Undertale S Open

[Bingle]

This level of engagement took so long because I was mobile only. I've... not hidden that?

Hectic/Chara-

Even if I assume that Hectic/Chara assumed that Chara would later be able to push through the spare wagon, there's no reason not to stay on wagon from Chara. At best, jumping off there delays the day end and means town has more information. At worst, it draws attention to Chara and allows for opinions to change. If you're happy with the way the thread is going as scum (spare wagon with your partner as the target at L-1 and two slots willing to hammer qualifies) you don't generally make big waves, and it's weird to me that you don't see that.

Nacho trying to strongarm a partner spare doesn't seem outside of his range, no, but specifically looking through and finding all of his scum meta is an odd tack for buddyNacho to take. It's not an impossible team, I suppose, but I'm not really interested in Hectic/Nacho as a team that's likely. It is probably the weakest of my exclusions, and was mostly included on the basis that both Rep and Amrun had already reached that conclusion and it made sense to me.

I don't think there was any real chance of you being spared yesterday. It's why I didn't bother unvoting you. Leaving my vote there had no real chance of having a big impact. As for being worried about your lynch, your wagon capped at L-3 while the spare was at L-1 (Count 2.7). There was never any wagon in serious contention for an actual lynch yesterday, and pretending otherwise is pretty meh.

I'm not sure why you're arguing for the inclusion of Amrun/you, but I don't think a glorified lurker wagon that was the leading wagon at the time while Amrun had a pretty comfortable reason to give you room (replacement) (Count 1.8).

I'd be interested in your reasons for Replica/Fark and Replica/Chara not being viable, although I think your Rep/Nacho reasoning is sound. I think as far as me teams goes, Amrun is the only one that doesn't really make sense. The reason that I'm not talking about them is that I'm clearly biased by my foreknowledge that I'm town and so talking about them is a waste of time.

Do you disagree with my conclusions, past the individual pairings?

[Bingle]

Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?

Because what we should have done isn't relevant? Your posts are already long and difficult to parse. Adding in things that don't matter makes it more tedious to read them, when it's already the case that you tend to multipost walls and make people want to disengage in the first place.

Note, I've been holding myself back from setup speccing unless it's directly relevant to what we're doing the same day. I've made few, if any, math walls this game, although I'm certainly able to.

[Replica]

I don’t get how you don’t have a read of me, Replica.

It's mostly because I don't give townreads to players that I think are playing within their range. I don't put a lot of faith in terms of my ability to say things like "More likely to come from town Amrun than scum Amrun". Instead, I frame things as "How likely are they to be playing better than I think they're capable of?"

Outside of that, I have agreed with a lot of your reads but disagreed with some of the pushes you've made along the way even if I could understand the reasoning for them. Sujimichi and his tone was an example earlier, and later I didn't think Bingle's reaction to your push was scummy even though it was a lousy argument on his end (Sorry Bingle). I've known that reading you would likely be a very difficult endeavor all game, and my plan was to wait until Day 3/4 unless something really pinged me. Having the same reads as me for the most part helped, but it doesn't say much about you if my reads are wrong. At times I'd have probably classified you as a townlean, but that's really it.

Now that we're both lynching and it's later I don't feel like I can conveniently assume you're town anymore.

I don't really understand Replica's confidence in Alimdia based on this meta case.
The first post he calls out is Alimdia voting Sherlock because he doesn't understand why Sherlock voted Hectic early on - how is that "genuine confusion and interest"? how can he claim that's outside of anyone's scumrange?
The other two are Alimdia wanting Sherlock to offer a better reason for Sherlock following JTB's RVS vote which seems like a relatively small thing to harp on - really don't understand why town!Alimdia cares about why Sherlock voted Hectic on the second page of the game to the degree he does, and, again, don't understand how that's out of his scumrange.

This tells me it'd be helpful to start with exactly how I meta. I don't put a lock of stock in things like activity, willingness to follow others, voting patterns/bussing, etc. Even things like aggressiveness I view very skeptically. This is because people, even or especially new players, generally think about these things a lot when they're scum. The #1 thing I look for is instead how they tend to approach their reads. People think, "I need to have logical reads, or a rational vote, or make objectively defensible and reasonable pushes" as scum, when in reality their town approach often isn't. There's a bit more to how I meta (I look for town tendencies, whereas I look for scum level of play) but this will suffice for now.

With alimdia, their approach to interacting with other players this game was getting to the bottom of things, flat out admitting that they don't understand why someone does something, and thinking it's scummy from the other player when they don't understand it, and not really being concerned about the backlash that might come from it. Their scumgame tended to be more of that "this is scummy, I draw this conclusion from this post", very concerned that they not be assailable.

These things aren't out of anyone's scumrange once they

are aware of them

. Before they hit that point, they are extremely indicative imo.

[Nachomamma8]

But I don't really see how almidia ever questioned things like he didn't understand them - the posts you quoted in your meta case were linked to his push on Sherlock for following JTB in an RVS heal vote - not only was it a push that never seemed to include Almidia actually attempting to understand (the flow instead was "what is this? you are scum!), but it lasted way too long and then fizzled out kind of awkwardly.

[Nachomamma8]

2) Hectic made several bad progression swings in d1 eod and d2. I have already talked about Chara (scumreading it for the unvote was ok, sparing it in d2 made no sense at all), but even Hectic push about me is based on bad reasoning. He pushed me for not sparing sujimichi, when i immediately entered the game saying that i wouldn't spare even myself. He never tried to understand my point of view, he never offered a solve of the game that includes scum!me, even when i asked multiple times to talk about potential lynches. Promoting a spare resolution is one thing (which i conceded about just disagreeing), refusing to scumhunt at all is another. This is the same thing Chara did during the whole of d2.

This is understandable, appreciate you taking the time to rehash this for me. I'll make an attempt to think about wagonomics Day 1 more, but that will have to be at a later time - they are not something that's typically front of mind for me.

[Replica]

I don't really know how to feel about Nacho's alignment, in that a lot of the last few pages have been spent in conversation with Farkran and reviewing the many points, highlighting the problems, overstatements, and non-sequiturs that regularly abound. I appreciate that Nacho has really gotten into the game and backed up that his engagement with Farkran's Hectic read would be worthwhile, whereas initially I was skeptical.

I just...struggle to make use of it, as in what do I, Replica, take from this. I was really excited to nail down Nacho with it but instead I'm just kind of saying "Yeah, he's right, but does it

matter

?" I guess that's on me, not Nacho. He's doing the right thing for townNacho but for me I'm watching him reinvent the wheel. I don't agree that his frustration at times is town, in that I don't tend to view frustration as town indicative and often view it the opposite way (For example, scum caught for the wrong reasons), but this is going to take time and honestly I'm not eager to read 10 more Farkran walls right now.

You'd be better off interacting with my posts as opposed to just sitting back and taking potshots - the potshots themselves do nothing but annoy me and make me dread the fact that we likely have to have in depth interactions today for town to have a decent chance of winning a game where it shouldn't be that hard to win. I know that it's been a while since we've played together, but if you're trying to get me engaged with the game, it's actually quite simple - don't be a dick, read my posts. You know that. You've seen it before. Why are you taking this route instead?

I was sincere, but I definitely wasn't admitting 100% fault with my "bit of a dick" post. I think acting like I was just aiming to shoot you down isn't a fair characterization here. I have been very eager to engage with the content of your posts overall, and much of my criticism is directed at their content. I've been eager to laud you when you've shown effort and dug deeper, but I've also been quick to call out posts and reads that I think don't meet that bar (Chemist read, glorified proddodge).

I generally agree with positive reinforcement, but I think holding you to a standard-not on agreeing with me but in effort/depth of thinking-is an important of getting the best out of you. The conciliatory post was precisely because I thought I was veering too far negative.

[Replica]

But I don't really see how almidia ever questioned things like he didn't understand them - the posts you quoted in your meta case were linked to his push on Sherlock for following JTB in an RVS heal vote - not only was it a push that never seemed to include Almidia actually attempting to understand (the flow instead was "what is this? you are scum!), but it lasted way too long and then fizzled out kind of awkwardly.

I fundamentally disagree. All 3 of those expressed confusion and skepticism of Sherlock's true reasoning. #211 especially shows this. I'm not reviewing the rest of his posting right now but my instinct is that it lasting awhile is probably a good thing. Finding the end it looks like they were still dissatisfied at never finding an answer they understood beyond "OMGUS type player" and they were still frustrated.

[Replica]

#1783 is a really good post from Bingle. I can clearly follow most of the given reasoning even if some of it is missing. This is a big undertaking for Bingle town, but even bigger for Bingle scum. It makes a lot of commitments on reads/teams that scum Bingle should not be eager to have. The only criticism I'd have of it is that the lynch pool is arguably convenient, making it possible for him to go through the effort of faking it. I don't think scum Bingle needed to or had much to gain from it beyond the hope of being townread for the post, though.

[Nachomamma8]

This is interesting. Can you tell me what would you expect from town!them and scum!them? Because based on 1721 you don't seem to have a lot of confidence on your knowledge of Chemist. I only experienced a game with town!Chemist, the magireco modded by Tetsuya/Torque. With Bingle, i only have town!him in the cult game modded by Kerset. Chemist is similar to the magireco Chemist, whereas this Bingle is completely different than the Bingle i know. What's your experience?

This is a good question, but unfortunately another one I will have to kick down the curb a little bit. Chemist is inconsistent. I don't have a lot of experience with his scum game, but he occupies a space where I'm confident that he can project town as town but I can't tell the difference between scum Chemist and Chemist that I'm not feeling for any particular reason.

[Nachomamma8]

i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?

It's like you have a crush on a girl but you're a bit shy, you know? When you're a little removed and just thinking about it you're focused on the possibility of how wonderful things will be if she says yes and you start a relationship together but then you actually are talking and you're nervous taking the plunge and all of the things you have to say go out the window. It's kind of like that.

[Nachomamma8]

Like, i feel that you are trying to adjust your reads to be more and more convenient to your survival, ever since i have been suggesting to lynch you. What have i done that makes me look scummier than yesterday, except moving my vote to you? You know i have been scumleaning you for reasons similar to why i am scumreading Chara, this is not news.

Yesterday, you were considering joining the Bingle fight wagon, but you didn't get the chance to produce content about it because Hectic quickspared himself. Why didn't you consider a Farkran/Bingle solve yesterday? Or Farkran/Chemist? Or Farkran/Amrun? Are you considering any of those today?

If I cared all that much about my survival it's doubtful that I spent time the places that I did. If I was posturing to lynch you it's doubtful I spend all the time I did all day yesterday calling you town and listing all the reasons you could possibly be town. I'm just in an angsty mood so I'll probably doubt you a bunch publicly but I probably won't stab you in the back later today?

I didn't consider a bunch of Farkran/anyone yesterday because I didn't think you were scum. I'll probably try to look into some of those today because I think the "possible teams" lens will prove to be a useful one.

[Nachomamma8]

But at this point I'm promising so many things where I'm pretty sure I'll have to make a to-do list. Or just go the politician route.

[Bingle]

What the actual fuck is that kill

@Amrun: Why were you so surprised by the Psyche kill?

[Nachomamma8]

Uh... no, i'm not townreading Amrun. I am townleaning Amrun

[Replica]

Hmmm, I don't have the energy to get to the finish line, but drilling deep into Amrun's alimdia read and her progression on me are probably going to be my best bet here if she's scum. If she's town...I really don't know if I'll ever get where I need to be, at least not with what we have now.

[Farkran]

This level of engagement took so long because I was mobile only. I've... not hidden that?

Hectic/Chara-

Even if I assume that Hectic/Chara assumed that Chara would later be able to push through the spare wagon, there's no reason not to stay on wagon from Chara. At best, jumping off there delays the day end and means town has more information. At worst, it draws attention to Chara and allows for opinions to change. If you're happy with the way the thread is going as scum (spare wagon with your partner as the target at L-1 and two slots willing to hammer qualifies) you don't generally make big waves, and it's weird to me that you don't see that.

Nacho trying to strongarm a partner spare doesn't seem outside of his range, no, but specifically looking through and finding all of his scum meta is an odd tack for buddyNacho to take. It's not an impossible team, I suppose, but I'm not really interested in Hectic/Nacho as a team that's likely. It is probably the weakest of my exclusions, and was mostly included on the basis that both Rep and Amrun had already reached that conclusion and it made sense to me.

I don't think there was any real chance of you being spared yesterday. It's why I didn't bother unvoting you. Leaving my vote there had no real chance of having a big impact. As for being worried about your lynch, your wagon capped at L-3 while the spare was at L-1 (Count 2.7). There was never any wagon in serious contention for an actual lynch yesterday, and pretending otherwise is pretty meh.

I'm not sure why you're arguing for the inclusion of Amrun/you, but I don't think a glorified lurker wagon that was the leading wagon at the time while Amrun had a pretty comfortable reason to give you room (replacement) (Count 1.8).

I'd be interested in your reasons for Replica/Fark and Replica/Chara not being viable, although I think your Rep/Nacho reasoning is sound. I think as far as me teams goes, Amrun is the only one that doesn't really make sense. The reason that I'm not talking about them is that I'm clearly biased by my foreknowledge that I'm town and so talking about them is a waste of time.

Do you disagree with my conclusions, past the individual pairings?

The point about not including you in the team analysis is not to force you to say you aren't town - of course you wouldn't - but to let you realize that your slot is largely similar to chemist's. You have almidia history to back you up, but otherwise you have said and done mostly the same things that chemist did. Disengagement, being nullscum as general consensus, and sparing farkran. This trend might change from now on.

I can agree wrt Farkran/Amrun though. A unvote would have been acceptable once the slot you're wagoning gets replaced. Besides, i am too discarding any Farkran-based solve, i'm including them to see what other people have to say and see if their pushes make sense from their pov.

About Replica/Fark, he has been hardbussing me ever since our first exchange. We have been fighting over setup spec at great length, tossing borderline unpolite words at each other for...ever, and we aren't saving any opportunity to clash whenever it appears. I'm not even saying that would be outside our (or at least my) scumrange, but how are we different than Bingle/Amrun? The question is mostly aimed at why you would think we are different, rather than allowing or disallowing that team. I'm trying to understand how you arrived to some conclusions.

Hectic/Chara. Assume they are SvS. They managed to consolidate Hectic spare, but they didn't consolidate Chara spare or even a heavily Spare-based route. Why wouldn't they try to distance themselves, once they have secured Hectic town equity? Wouldn't it have been strictly better to have Hectic spared without Chara on his wagon? That was day 1, what would have happened if we chose to go for a 2S/2F or 3S/1F without including Chara? What if the 1F was Chara? This... could be me overthinking it, but it's one of the few teams that would easily explain this gamestate.

Replica/Chara... would have tried to spare Chara more than anything else, i think. And they did. But then Replica removed momentum from that wagon (1417), when Nacho was plausibly going to concede to that resolution (1316). They also had a juicy Farkran lynch available, if Chara wanted to put its weight back there. Amrun would have joined. Sparing town!hectic is a very bad outcome for them in d2, compared to the viable alternatives.

Hectic/Nacho, you are looking at it from the wrong perspective. If Nacho is scum with Hectic, he doesn't have to search through Hectic meta. He just has to ask Hectic in the PT for his scumgames. If you were scum, what would you do to plan for a spare on your partner? Would you just shout that he's town and nothing else?

I mean, it seems to me that very few people here -if any- are trying to think from a scum POV, instead assuming that scum players are inherently bad and/or lazy. Sometimes they are, people can just dislike playing scum, or cannot afford the time and effort required to be good scum. But i played scum twice so far, and both times i made tons and tons of planning with my partners. Excusing scum just because they are statistically bad is... not good practice, especially for slots that have a lot of experience with ms in general. Any argument that goes "eh, if i were scum i'd just play poorly, because i'm so much more awesome when i roll town" is not really compelling, nor believable.

[Farkran]

which is badly distributed confidence on reads.

What do you mean by this? Are you saying that you can't read me because you don't understand the confidence levels I possess (and that's additionally why you can't read Chemist)? Because if so that's an unexpected one but not the craziest one that I've ever heard from someone who doesn't know me?

Not really, i'm saying i think your confidence is misplaced. Your level of confidence is clear from your posts, even if you later adjust it, doesn't mean you weren't as confident when you post them. Whether this is scum indicative or not for you, i have yet to learn, but i would say that is more scumsided than townsided as a general behavior, statistically.

From chemist, i didn't like his defense of the lurkers, but that was back when i believed he would be scum with psyche. Aside from that, he was pushing you (roughly vanity, i'd think scum!him would have picked a better choice) which i don't dislike, and sparing me... which i can't say i like from a "good practice" standpoint, but it's not scum indicative from my pov. I understand it could be from yours, but i think me and chemist would have pretty much the same scum equity in this scenario.

[Farkran]

From what i have seen in your recent posting and past ISO, you have no reason to firmly townread any in {Chara, Bingle, Amrun, Chemist, Farkran, Replica}. Let's assume that you (used to) townread me based on tone and sincerity, perhaps Chara and Replica too, even though i don't particularly agree with Chara. Why do you pick Chemist over Bingle and Amrun as your top scumread? I understand that you are pairing him with both the other two, but if there is one important thing in this game is to lynch scum. This has been true ever since d1, but today even moreso.

Mmmmmmmm, not quite.
I pressed Chemist yesterday because he feels underwhelming and flat compared to the last game I played with him and because I thought I had an epiphany yesterday with the "oh he's just pushing those who were pushing the lurkers, it's a TMI push!". One of my many weaknesses as a player is that I tend to be a bit bipolar; I'll feel really super strong about something and then I'll temper it later or flip the opposite direction. You'll notice me fighting hard against this tendency today because it's the day we win the game.

At the moment, I'm not pairing shit for shit. I don't have a top scumread. When I get one I'll explain it and you'll know it and everything will be Groovy Tuesday.

Eh, i'd say this is also the day scum loses the game, so they would be fighting hard against it. Again, thinking from a scum point of view, their absolute highest priority would be dodging a scum lynch. Anything else goes, with preference to lynching town over sparing town AND sparing scum, if hectic is town. This is true just for today - if they can secure a town mislynch, they can no longer lose the game in a 3S/1F.

[Farkran]

why would that scum player also spare town!Hectic? Let's assume that it could work in d1 to pocket other people, but why would you pursue the same in d2, when you have already spared conftown

because you're scum in a pseudo-townblock and maintaining that townblock is more important than avoiding sparing town day 2 (because of the nature of Day 1, town basically got a free townspare. If you're scum that thinks you won't be able to let town get a single correct spare you're either a god amongst peasant or an arrogant idiot).

If you are scum in a pseudo-townbloc, you get spared. Why are you refusing so hard to consider this possibility as a scum strategy?

[Farkran]

Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?

Because what we should have done isn't relevant? Your posts are already long and difficult to parse. Adding in things that don't matter makes it more tedious to read them, when it's already the case that you tend to multipost walls and make people want to disengage in the first place.

Note, I've been holding myself back from setup speccing unless it's directly relevant to what we're doing the same day. I've made few, if any, math walls this game, although I'm certainly able to.

It's relevant if my theory that scum would push for sparing their partner is correct. It's basically VCA, except... without the flip, which means we have to assume both alignments when reading into things. I have been clearly defending this point ever since i joined this game.

[Farkran]

i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?

It's like you have a crush on a girl but you're a bit shy, you know? When you're a little removed and just thinking about it you're focused on the possibility of how wonderful things will be if she says yes and you start a relationship together but then you actually are talking and you're nervous taking the plunge and all of the things you have to say go out the window. It's kind of like that.

I get what you're trying to say, but... this is not an answer to my question, it's just you describing your feelings. What interests me is what generated those sentiments in the first place. I doubt you would be shy for talking to us, so just out your thoughts. We're around valentine, you might get a crush message.

[Amrun]

@Bingle: re: Chara

Perhaps it would be more understandable as a detailed timeline:

1) Chara townreads Hectic because of Hectic content
2) Hectic reaches Spare-1, Chara unvotes and states Hectic is not towny enough
3) Hectic scumreads Chara because of point 2
4) Chara puts back Hectic in its top townreads
5) Hectic unvotes Chara but is still suspicious of it
6) I scumread Replica
7) Chara scumreads me because i scumread Replica
8) Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me
-d2 happens-
8) Hectic now townreads Chara for no reason at all
9) Hectic now scumreads me because i scumread him
10) Suddenly, Hectic, Chara and Replica formed a townbloc of their own

literally just because of how the players involved are reading themselves

whereas i am pushed as a scumread because i scumread them.

Just no.

I think this list is the thing that struck me the worst. Chara did a good job of breaking it down point by point and I don’t have time to do that myself, but I think any list with reasons like “Chara scumreads me because I scumread Replica” and “Replica townreads Chara because it scumreads me” (demonstrably false) as well as saying people do things for “no reason at all” is not in good faith, and is not trying to determine intent behind actions. This read strongly to me like trying to paint actions in the worst possible light, the opposite of that.

Now, the wall you just did to me, Farkran, I don’t dislike. That reasoning I can understand. I don’t really agree with it, but it’s a train of thought I follow. This quoted post, definitely not. There are smaller less egregious examples littered throughout but this post in particular I had a real problem with.

snip

HURT: Hectic

I’m not going to read ISO’s and I’m sheeping you because Amrun says you logic is shit without disagreeing with any results. When the consensus seems to be “the new guy can solve the game for us!” actually pushing something is probably a town move and I don’t see signs that anyone else has done so.

I do disagree with results.

Hectic is probably town, Chara is very likely town, and Replica is a townlean though not as confident. All of this is readily available information. I don’t know what gave you the impression that I didn’t disagree with Farkran’s results besides you not remotely giving a shit or trying.

@Farkran: I’ll respond to you later. Don’t let me forget!

Thanks, Chara, for having the patience to point out the flaws in Farkran’s thinking FMPOV. I do not have that patience lately.

It’s remarkable how in sync I am with Chara in this moment which is major townpoints in my book.

[Amrun]

What the actual fuck is that kill

@Amrun: Why were you so surprised by the Psyche kill?

I talked about it a bit with Replica.

Partially it’s because I still viewed him as a viable fight even though I wasn’t currently scum reading him, but mostly I just thought his views of the gamestate were very convenient for scum (sparing Bingle, scumreading me). Obviously this holds less water when you aren’t me, with a town role PM, but I still think it was an odd kill.

I did look back and he was more TR than I remembered, though, which makes it a little less odd than I thought when I originally made this post.

[Amrun]

Whatever Bingle’s alignment, I appreciate the effort today.

I don’t hate the content, though I feel he’s about to come in with some huge bogus case on me but we will see.

[Nachomamma8]

Just a heads up - I'm traveling (again, to Nashville this time) - I'll still get valuable laptop time late night so there shouldn't be a drop off of activity with the exception of today.