Mafiascum.net

Votecount 2.02a

Blair (1)

- Dunnstral (Lilith2013),

Nauci (1)

- Battle Mage (Formerfish)

Dunnstral (1)

- Nauci

Not Voting (4) -

BBmolla (Osuka), Tuxedo Mask, Gibus, Alortom (Votato)

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2020-06-02 08:15:00)

Elmo, you are a saint for identifying the replacements in the vote count.

More panadas, please.

Usually, I like to hunt for scum by sussing out the players who seemed to mysteriously "forsee" the Day 1 mislynch. So, I rolled up my sleeves and dove straight into vote count analysis -

I noticed two odd things about the Wavesarc (Brassherald) mislynch wagon development. I'm not going to editorialize (yet), let's start with the facts:





Formerfish cast the first vote on what would eventually become the wagon that mislynched Wavesarc here:

In post 618, Formerfish wrote:VOTE: Brass

Let's dance.

At this point, Gibus has joined FormerFish in voting for Brass herald (Wavesarc), and FormerFish decides to hop off the wagon onto Freddie:

In post 932, Formerfish wrote:VOTE: Freddie

We aren't lynching Tux today unless someone builds a fucking scotus level brief against them and destroys the view I have of that slot on review.

Copy was bleeding town.

Since then, three more people have joined Gibus in voting for Wavesarc, and FormerFish decides to return to the wagon and hammer:

In post 1114, Formerfish wrote:VOTE: Waves

You scum bro?

Gibus casts what is ostensibly an RVS vote for Brassherald (Wavesarc) as the first in a series of 9 rapid-fire votes over the course of his next 13 consecutive posts, beginning here:

In post 56, gibus wrote:VOTE: Brassherald

And ending back on Brassherald again, here:

In post 95, gibus wrote:I'll just stick with brass for now. VOTE: brassherald

He then reiterates his Brassherald (Wavesarc) vote here (this was not a vote movement, his vote was already on him):

In post 166, gibus wrote:

In post 153, gibus wrote:Quicksolve: brass, lilith, formerfish

VOTE: brassherald

Much later, after FormerFish has started the wagon that will eventually mislynch Wavesarc, Gibus rejoins as the second vote on the wagon:

In post 768, gibus wrote:Do not scumread me for this please, but I'm going to sheep Fish and Nauci and change my vote in 3 posts.
VOTE: brassherald (wavesarc)

It seems arrogant of me to suggest a solve so early in the game, but here's what may have happened:

Gibus made up his mind from early in the game that he was gunning for Brassherald (Wavesarc). I won't pretend to read his mind and guess why, but the fact that he was is more than evident.

FormerFish started a wagon on Brassherald (Wavesarc) and Gibus jumped on board. As it became more evident that Wavesarc was not going to get any townier and he became a more and more viable lynch, FormerFish blinked first. The fact that he jumped back in to hammer without much rhyme or reason suggests that FormerFish didn't mind lynching Wavesarc, he just didn't like seeing his name right next to Gibus in the vote count.

Theory:

FormerFish/Gibus Scum team?

VOTE: Gibus

I'll start here because Gibus is still here to talk to us about the above. We'll have more to talk to FormerFish's replacement about after he reacts to his partner's tragic lynching today.

Hark! Let us commence our steadfast march toward a glorious town victory!

Do you think that scum!Gibus would really make post 768? IDK if it's a newbie game thing, but half of the players in this game have made wildly LAMIST posts that I can barely fathom to the point I no longer know what to make of the whole genre

P.S. I came back after getting Asian-Girl-Drunk to catch up on the thread and there's only one real post? For real?

Why do you think town is less likely to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch?
Just having an RVS vote on brass in the start and a serious vote on him in the end doesn't imply that I made my mind up from early in the game to gun for brass.
Even if I did (hypothetically), it would only be bad play to tunnel into a slot and is not AI.

Also what do you think of my interaction with Fish? Does it affect your theory?

In post 1747, Nauci wrote:

In post 1721, gibus wrote:

In post 1716, Blair wrote:Greetings!

I was promised panadas.

88% of living players in this game are replacements. This presents a unique challenge! I'll review the thread over the next 24 hours.

Gibus, as the sole remainder of the original playlist, can I trouble you for a tl;dr?

Wavesarc, Fred and CopyKat were the main wagons of D1.
Votato was scumread by lilith and waves for not pushing his scumreads.
Fred claimed even though someone else got hammered. FF, osuka, lilith speculated that this was scummy. Votato was very confident that it came from a town mindset, which made others think that votato could flip scum if Fred flipped town/Fred could flip scum if votato flipped scum.

But we (I, but I believe Osuka agreed) settled on votato being definitely town regardless of Freddie's alignment because it would be insane of him to throw away his generally town read status to quintuple down on defending Freddie for any reason other than genuinely town reading her because of IRL meta knowledge

Did you exclude this from your summary because you disagree... Or?

I agree. Sorry for missing that part, Blair.

In post 1803, Nauci wrote:Do you think that scum!Gibus would really make post 768? IDK if it's a newbie game thing, but half of the players in this game have made wildly LAMIST posts that I can barely fathom to the point I no longer know what to make of the whole genre

He is a new enough player that he has no completed games yet. Arguments based on, "We all know this would be an unforced error as scum," don't apply very well to new players.

In post 1804, gibus wrote:Why do you think town is less likely to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch?

I don't. I suggested you were fixated on Brassherald because you voted for him over and over again throughout the phase - reducing my analysis to a single RVS vote as you have done here seems disingenuous, yes?

In post 1805, gibus wrote:Also what do you think of my interaction with Fish? Does it affect your theory?

Say more about this. The implication here is that you believe it should ("affect [my] theory") - explain what parts of your interaction should affect my theory and why.

Driving 6 hours, headed back to LA

Will post when I’m home, might be tomorrow

In post 1807, Blair wrote:

In post 1804, gibus wrote:Why do you think town is less likely to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch?

I don't. I suggested you were fixated on Brassherald because you voted for him over and over again throughout the phase - reducing my analysis to a single RVS vote as you have done here seems disingenuous, yes?

You said, "sus out the players who seemed to mysteriously "forsee" the Day 1 mislynch" and pointed to my RVS vote as scumtell, which implies that scum is likelier (than town) to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch. Or am I misinterpreting this?
My votes do reduce to a single RVS vote. The "phase" that you mention was just a very brief period of time in RVS when brass didn't post.
It isn't disingenuous.

In post 1805, gibus wrote:Also what do you think of my interaction with Fish? Does it affect your theory?

Say more about this. The implication here is that you believe it should ("affect [my] theory") - explain what parts of your interaction should affect my theory and why.

I was the only player here who scumread Fish (apart from votato, who never made his case clear), when he was being strongly townread by others.
I was expecting you to go through our interactions and point out anything you might have felt was SvS.

Also I don't seen any case on FF other than "he hammered waves without much reason". Do you have anything more?

just checking in to say you're all doing well - Nauci is the lynch today. Gibus is giving me some little townpings.

In post 1809, gibus wrote:You said, "sus out the players who seemed to mysteriously "forsee" the Day 1 mislynch" and pointed to my RVS vote as scumtell, which implies that scum is likelier (than town) to RVS vote an eventual D1 lynch. Or am I misinterpreting this?

You're misunderstanding. I said I "usually" look for that - but if you read the rest of that statement, I said, "something else," had caught my attention. i.e. This is outside of that formula.

That was just an introduction to explain what sent me back to Day 1 analysis in the first place.

In post 1810, gibus wrote:Also I don't seen any case on FF other than "he hammered waves without much reason". Do you have anything more?

Yeah, a lot more, but it all boils down to, "There were some very strange circumstances surrounding Wavesarc's mislynch wagon and FormerFish happens to be the main driver of those dynamics," which I won't reiterate here because I outlined them in the post you're referencing.

The short version is: He started the wagon (with little conviction), seemed to become uncomfortable when you joined him on the wagon, jumped off, then jumped back on to hammer (with no evidence of any new conviction).

In post 1811, Battle Mage wrote:just checking in to say you're all doing well - Nauci is the lynch today. Gibus is giving me some little townpings.

Why Nauci?

What townpings?

If everyone is caught up, could I get a read list from the replacements? Sorry, everything is a bit up in the air at the moment. So I'd appreciate being able to pin down where people stand specifically, and not just how they feel about certain major moments.

In post 1802, Blair wrote:

Gibus

Gibus casts what is ostensibly an RVS vote for Brassherald (Wavesarc) as the first in a series of 9 rapid-fire votes over the course of his next 13 consecutive posts, beginning here:

In post 56, gibus wrote:VOTE: Brassherald

And ending back on Brassherald again, here:

In post 95, gibus wrote:I'll just stick with brass for now. VOTE: brassherald

He then reiterates his Brassherald (Wavesarc) vote here (this was not a vote movement, his vote was already on him):

In post 166, gibus wrote:

In post 153, gibus wrote:Quicksolve: brass, lilith, formerfish

VOTE: brassherald

Much later, after FormerFish has started the wagon that will eventually mislynch Wavesarc, Gibus rejoins as the second vote on the wagon:

In post 768, gibus wrote:Do not scumread me for this please, but I'm going to sheep Fish and Nauci and change my vote in 3 posts.
VOTE: brassherald (wavesarc)

---

Now we editorialize:

It seems

extremely

arrogant of me to suggest a solve so early in the game, but here's what may have happened:

Gibus made up his mind from early in the game that he was gunning for Brassherald (Wavesarc). I won't pretend to read his mind and guess why, but the fact that he was is more than evident.

FormerFish started a wagon on Brassherald (Wavesarc) and Gibus jumped on board. As it became more evident that Wavesarc was not going to get any townier and he became a more and more viable lynch, FormerFish blinked first. The fact that he jumped back in to hammer without much rhyme or reason suggests that FormerFish didn't mind lynching Wavesarc, he just didn't like seeing his name right next to Gibus in the vote count.

Theory:

FormerFish/Gibus Scum team?

VOTE: Gibus

I'll start here because Gibus is still here to talk to us about the above. We'll have more to talk to FormerFish's replacement about after he reacts to his partner's tragic lynching today.

Hark! Let us commence our steadfast march toward a glorious town victory!

I don't 'get' this. Why is it likely for Gibus to have wanted to mislynch Wavesarc from the start, vs that being a real read that formed?

Tuxedo Mask wrote:If everyone is caught up, could I get a read list from the replacements? Sorry, everything is a bit up in the air at the moment. So I'd appreciate being able to pin down where people stand specifically, and not just how they feel about certain major moments.

I don't really work that way (I don't typically have hard reads on anyone, rather I develop "If/Then" reads based on how likely I consider certain interpretations of particular events), but I will attempt to satisfy your request. If I had to represent my current impression of the gamestate as a formal read list, it would be:


Battle Mage
Gibus
Aloratom
Tuxedo Mask
Nauci
Dunnstral
BBmolla
Blair


P-edit:

Dunnstral wrote:I don't 'get' this. Why is it likely for Gibus to have wanted to mislynch Wavesarc from the start, vs that being a real read that formed?

That part was an observation, not an opinion. You should ask Gibus why he was tunneling Brassherald/Wavesarc the entire phase, instead of asking me why he was likely to do so - unless I am misunderstanding the question?

I thought it was a case

I didn't tunnel.
He was null here - #391

Dunnstral wrote:I thought it was a case

It was - but the part you asked me to clarify was a factual observation, not an interpretation.

Either you are disputing the veracity of my observation (you are welcome to do so!), or you are questioning one of my interpretations in a sort of awkward way.

Help me understand which one it is so I can respond?

I don't get how it is a factual observation - has Gibus admitted to it?

You're saying that he wanted to lynch Wave from the start of the game - it looks like they disagreed with you above.

In post 1820, gibus wrote:I didn't tunnel.
He was null here - #391

This appears to be lean-scum? I don't actually see a null section.

In post 1822, Dunnstral wrote:I don't get how it is a factual observation - has Gibus admitted to it?

You're saying that he wanted to lynch Wave from the start of the game - it looks like they disagreed with you above.

In the post you initially responded to, I outlined Gibus' vote movements as they related to Brassherald on Day 1, and it seemed apparent to me that Gibus' vote returned to Brassherald again and again, more than any other player. If you disagree, say so and provide evidence, instead of asking vague questions without acknowledging the posts and vote history I have already provided in the post you quoted.