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Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:29 am
by ItalianoVD
In post 1798, Titus wrote:Italiano, what do you think of my Walter, geratim, gamma theory?
Walter is in my neighborhood and I am thinking very highly that he is not scum, however, if he is, it’s probably one of the best scum plays I’ve ever seen.

I already believe Gamma is probably scum, but what I’m questioning and what doesn’t make sense is how scum!gamma would know to “track” Walter to callforjudgment? The only way that’s possible is if all three of them (Gamma, Walter, & callforjudgment) are scum together.

Geraintm I don’t see either. I believe he is town, based on the feel of his posts and interactions.

In any event, if any of the players I am townreading at the moment turn out to be scum then I don’t mind losing. If someone can make me think otherwise because of something I missed or because I missed something then I’d be willing to listen.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:32 am
by Titus
Who exactly is your scumteam then?

Can you elaborate more on the track? I haven't read.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:42 am
by callforjudgement
In post 1800, ItalianoVD wrote:I already believe Gamma is probably scum, but what I’m questioning and what doesn’t make sense is how scum!gamma would know to “track” Walter to callforjudgment? The only way that’s possible is if all three of them (Gamma, Walter, & callforjudgment) are scum together.
That's probably an actual night action result figured out via a scum power role; either they have a Tracker and tracked Walter, or else they have some other power role that gave them the same information (e.g. a Watcher targeted at me). (Scum don't like to claim Watcher, because it's much more common as a scum role than as a town role in practice; it's too hard to balance in town hands.)

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:43 am
by ItalianoVD
Well my scumteam is Frogster and Gamma.

Spoiler:
In post 1614, ItalianoVD wrote: Here are my full reads:

TOWN


geraintm
- For almost all of Day 1 and part of Day 2 I could not get a read on geraintm. Never scumread him, but couldn’t hone in a solid read. As I started to see more of his reasoning and thoughts regarding events in the gamestate and when my own interactions with him increased I began feeling better about him. Geraintm has been the ghost vote/wagon since Day 1. Coincidentally along with Looker, it’s been Gamma, callforjudgment, and Frogster.
85%


Nosferatu
- After thinking Frog and Nos were possible scum partners earlier in the day I read Nosferatu as town late in the day for seemingly backing me up when I was going after callforjudgment even though I was the leading wagon at the time. I was hoping he was town by sending him my tfn message. I know it doesn’t make sense for scum!Nos to deny receiving the message, meaning it could be faked, but based on the late Day 1 response to my wagon along with the Day 2 posting, I’m thinking pretty strongly town here.
90%


Walter
- My strongest townread out of everyone. Nothing more needs to be said here.
100%


RCEnigma
- The two things RC is being scumread for I think are NAI and other than those two things I have not seen anyone say anything that could actually be considered scummy. I’ve pretty much townread RC since late Day 1 and as I said there hasn’t been anything I have found through his ISO that I could say would be worth voting him for.
85%


Looker
- SJReaver claimed she was scum. CFJ claimed that he thought her action was more likely to come from scum then town, although his sample size was only three (). I disagreed then and I still do. I have only seen/experienced veteran, highly experienced players claim wolf while actually being wolf and that’s only been like 5 times maybe, which is also not a strong sample size. The other times I have seen it (much more often than 5) has been from regular villager or power role villager (seer, Angel, etc.). All in all I think no matter what alignment you are it’s simply a reaction test. Anyway, I’m saying all that to say:

~While it’s possible, I think/thought it was highly unlikely for scum!SJReaver to comfortably claim scum while being scum, especially being a new player.

~SJReaver as scum would not come after me as town because town!SJReaver knows I go hard after who I think is scum and would not risk getting tunneled. I don’t think , , and comes from scum!SJReaver.

I don’t really have to say anything about Looker since it’s the same slot. I haven’t seen anything that has made me think otherwise on the slot. Though I was annoyed in it wasn’t a scumread.
85%



SCUM


Frogster
- I started to allude to my suspicion of Frogster in . I wasn’t satisfied with the answers in and . I perceived them as brush off answers. Then in changes the subject to pointlessly question Looker about his username. Again in , I tried to get some type of response/reaction out of him and was again met with sarcasm (). And thus the reason for the vote in . was an elaboration of 1385. I was ready to engage with him and understand what his thoughts were, but it seemed like he had/has something to hide so I’m good with voting him out and why he’s in my lynchpool.
90%


Gamma
- I’ve scumread Gamma since Day 2. Wasn’t able to really get a good read on him Day 1 as I forgot he was in the game although he was a top 3 poster. I think he might have been second in posting iirc. Posting that much and not being memorable had me scratching my head. After doing an iso on him Day 2 he seemed very much like a possible scum slot. I said this in and then reiterated again in when I voted for him. I don’t see any changes to this read.
90%


CFJ
- I’ve been pretty suspicious of call from the beginning. His framing of events have had me scratching my head constantly. Not sure why he frames things the way he does. Sometimes in a weird way, sometimes outright false.

No one caught it but my read of callforjudgment in was a parody of Trump’s description of everything being beautiful even though it’s not (read it again in Trump’s voice). Although it was delivered as a joke, it was a true read of how I thought his posts were too perfect. Townies post and do things that look scummy all the time. Call’s post were just too perfect and to me that seemed like he was trying too hard. Since Day 1, it’s been an up and down rollercoaster when trying to read him. Recently (mid-late Day 2) he has looked more town with his responses and interactions, but then he does something () or says something () that pushes him right back into my scumpool. I do admit, however, that callforjudgment is more of a PoE read than an actual scumread at the moment.
55%

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:45 am
by ItalianoVD
@Titus

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:16 am
by WaltertheDunce10
Yeah, also frog has acted very weird with the votes on gamma I feel like.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:17 am
by WaltertheDunce10
In post 1796, Titus wrote:@Nos - Radiant Cowbells. If we count alts and hydrae, I beat him probably.

@Walter - No. I am curious about it for the rule of three. Are you the only two? Were any of the dead in your hood?
Just me and italiano

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:22 am
by Looker
  • Has Gamma given up?

  • There's a difference between ItalianoVD disagreeing with me and him being extremely confident that I'm off-base. What I don't understand is why he would say "What on earth" if he's not extremely confident. I actually never even proposed a Nos/CFJ scumteam; I just asked if there were any reasoning to rule it out. Italiano's response is confusing to me.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:39 am
by Titus
Ok. I just lost all of my notes when MS just logged out. So I'll give the short version of why I doubt Frogster and Call as scum.

First, early game wagon overload.
Second, Frogster has been an early vote presence on Shelley/Banana.
Third, this VC makes no sense in your theory and it's worth breaking down in detail.
In post 832, Datisi wrote:
Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)
~ (42), (46), (68), (73), (70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)
~ (57), (25), (68), (83)
ItalianoVD(2)
~ (66), (70)
geraintm(2)
~ (80), (55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)


MOD REMINDERS
  • prodding Not_Mafia
  • looking for a replacement for shellyc
Let's suppose Gamma is inactive scum or waiting to hammer town!Walter for a moment rather than my S v S theory. (In my theory, Gamma is inactive lurker scum).

If Shelley is scum (known true), and Walter is town, then we should expect some scum effort to save Shelley. Yet, in your setup the counterwagon to know scum is completely town, minus the possibility of call. If you postulate Frogster is bussing, then Call must be scum for this VC to make any sense with your theory. In fact, Walter town nearly locks call as scum. Yet, I don't feel call is scum based on earlier VCs. Especially with how close call and shelley were voting.

I just don't think Frogstar was bussing. The amount of hoops he'd be going through on Day 1 alone is insane. The RVS wagons 1.2-1.4 would be inexplicable to be voting like that.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:40 am
by Titus
@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:42 am
by Titus
In post 1799, geraintm wrote:Tirus, you know we've voted off one scum already right?
Yes, that factored into all of my analysis.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:50 pm
by Gamma Emerald
In post 1790, Titus wrote:
In post 1440, GeorgeBailey wrote:
Votecount 2.11

RCEnigma(4)
~ (63), (39), (88), (51)

Raya36(4)
~ (52), (28), (34), (23)
Looker(1)
~ (45)
Frogsterking(1)
~ (71)
callforjudgement(1)
~ (72)


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)
Knowing these are two town wagons, scum shouldn't have a preference unless Raya's reads were better than RC's. I'd expect at least 1 scum off the wagons. Since I already TR Italiano and Frogsterking, I would suspect gamma scum.

Right now, Walter, geratim, and Gamma is my throry.
So you think I'm scum via PoE? In addition I actually expressed a preference regarding wagons both days, I don't think I really said anything regarding those specific two you're talking about but I did have stances out.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:52 pm
by Titus
Gamma, I just said intent to hammer you.

What is your read on Walter? Geratim? Call? Claim please.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:54 pm
by Titus
In post 1809, Titus wrote:@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?
To follow up here, I suspect it was pregame. If I am correct, that makes Walter an apparent Godfather to the PT cop. If Walter made the hood, then he had his own triggering ability to create a PT Godfather.

A PR is worth more than a lurking PT. The choice for scum was easy. Save Walter.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 12:56 pm
by Gamma Emerald
I've already claimed tracker, maybe trying reading the actual game instead of hopping immediately to VCA? I know you did this same thing of in Arbiter's Takeover so this doesn't look good on you.
I'm scumleaning walter, not sure on geraint, cfj I am thinking is scum rn

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:01 pm
by Titus
Gamma, you know more than anyone here that I don't read on subbing in.

Why are you scum leaning Walter? Why are you null on geriant? Why is call scum?

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:10 pm
by Gamma Emerald
Walter is scum via setup spec, call is scum because I don't like how he's reacted to my questioning. Geraint I mostly have lost my handle on, I had a read on him earlier but don't feel as strongly about it now and have lost focus on that reasoning

And that doesn't change the fact this is the exact play you had in AT, and RCE wasn't exactly a towny slot to start with. You should be able to read at least a few things, rather than just being a total stick in the mud and forcing everyone else to walk you through the game. There's inherent scum advantage to that as well, as it let's you figure out the gamestate without having to put your mindset out there while doing so. In fact:
VOTE: Titus
This doesn't move until there's a good reason to vote someone else or you read at least enough of today to figure out what's going on.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:13 pm
by Titus
Ok.

VOTE: Gamma

Bye scum. Walter dies tomorrow.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:31 pm
by Titus
Was your intent to get me to hammer you?

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:44 pm
by WaltertheDunce10
Lol
Lol
Prob titus if gamma is town

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:51 pm
by Titus
Regardless of Gamma's flip, we can have it out tomorrow Walter. If I am not dead, you can count on it.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:18 pm
by WaltertheDunce10
Alright

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:15 pm
by ItalianoVD
In post 1809, Titus wrote:@Walter/Italiano, Did your hood exist pregame or was it created?
From what I assume, the hood was already in existence before I got my pm from the mod.

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:25 pm
by ItalianoVD
If Gamma does flip as the tracker then my confusion about this would have been eliminated. I hope he just makes it easy and flips scum. ;)

Posted: Tue Sep 29, 2020 3:36 pm
by Gamma Emerald
There will be words when the game ends.