Micro 1054 || Fuzzy Friends Coalition || Game Over!

[Irrelephant11]

Anyone see town!mena telling me to self-vote, please link me to the last time he did. 100% AtE to get one mislim in before I take him down

[fireisredsir]

the point is that he self-voted as town in ktane which just ended and several of us were in/were reading

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13354122

i think him demanding you self-vote was kinda ridiculous tho and doesn't really make any logical sense

[fireisredsir]

or are you asking for a time when he was town and asked someone to self-vote? if that, i have no idea

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah the latter. I think it’s a very scummy thing to do because I think he’s trying desperately to get at least one townie to get limmed before him

[fireisredsir]

mmm idk if i really agree with that reasoning bc that would mean he expects you to do it. and i really don't think that's the case, as either alignment

but i think it is somewhat scummy bc i don't think there's any reason to believe that you would be likely to (or that you should) self-vote if you're town here

and the only reason to demand that is if the implication is that town would do that

[Ydrasse]

Malakittens has been prodded.

[skitter30]

Mena i feel p strongly that std is town and i dont think i'll be voting him today

can you tell me why

I'm going to try to engage (*shudders*) with the monstrosity of a wall of text he posted yesterday, but I wasn't seeing it based on the final paragraphs that I did read

basically: i very strongly believe he's approaching this game from a town mindset and trying to solve. i can track his trajectories, and they make sense to me. he keeps chiming in with good, timely observations

overall i just get Good Vibes from him

referring back to your case on him:
- i think he does have real reads. i think they might be articulated in a more vibe-y wishy-wash-y sort of way, but i think that's just who he is as a player and how he approaches the game and forming reads. i think they largely track throughout the game, and make sense
- i think he's put a lot of effort into this game that i'm not sure he does as scum, including a substantial effort to articulate his reads beyond the vibes he's had

i think you're kinda scumreading his playstyle + may be lowkey tunneled
like a lot of what you're scumeading him for basically boils down to you not liking how he's articulating (or not) his reads - is this actually scum-indicative tho?

[skitter30]

*pat pat*

it's ok skitt, if we're annoying enough, someone is gonna call us tvt eventually

Ok dropping by to say it would be a lie to say this post from skitter/datisi's scum chat from another game didn't make me paranoid but I think the whole pl is basically deciding between me/mena right now so in this world we've maybe already lost anyway? I will maybe legit cry if it's datisi/skitter

being scum with dats is fun!

[skitter30]

I did not but I’m about to go to sleep

Essentially I revisited fire and once I was happy with fire town I thought ari was much more likely to be as well

ok did any of that thought process end up in thread?

uh

no

Like you were saying earlier we need to weigh actions on the spectrum of 'does it make more sense for town or scum to do this'

You've successfully shown that this is bizarre as town, but i'm saying that its equally bizarre as scum (and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townie) so its hard for me to view this as damning

I want to townlock skitter for this

but I'm worried that she would defend me as either alignment here because as town I believe that she's able to read me this well

yet as scum she benefits a lot from being right tomorrow and would be able to get a Relly misflip almost for sure, and have good odds of winning in ari/dats

although now I say that maybe not given how hard ari/dats have been on each other being town? so maybe I can townlock skitt if defending me makes her life harder or she just doesn't need to do it, and it doesn't make the game overall that much easier (as in, she would still prob die in 5p and be reliant on her partner to win)

first bit: ok so ... can you elaborate on any of that reasoning? it is a little sketchy that you were calling them the scumteam earlier and then voted for a coalition with them (and you!) that failed with no reasoning in between
second bit: dats is townlocking ari, i'm not sure it's going the other way around as well

[Not Known 15]

Okay self then

Why did you post this?

[skitter30]

um your reasons are not v good.

1- I'd always try to pocket you as scum. Pocketing you is just something that I would enjoy doing and it doesn't have to have an obvious benefit.
2. I do make that effort as scum - esp to shut down a push coming from a townleader very early in the day and I don't need to push skitter - de-escalating and pretending to sort her is much better to do strategically.
3. I mean it could just be some excuse I made up to force my way into a coalition and blame failure on skitter?
4. I don't really need to push anyone on d2 if townies are fighting among each other and I'm not really being threatened.

here is the only reason you need:

I literally never rand scum <3

fwiw i also think dats' reasons for townreading u are somewhat poor
i will also point out that your current play today looks p similar to what you're outlining in 4

[skitter30]

im still not caught up but what frustrates me is the obvious mischaracterizations and sliminess and people are just ignoring that.

mena has clearly decided i'm scum but has no nuance to it no re-evaluation no thought process behind it. it's not like a townie finding a scumread at all, it's like scum picking someone because they have to. and people are just ignoring that.

mena has lied about what i've said to make me look worse and people are ignoring that. 1522

mena posted a monstrous wall and then acts like my monstrous wall in response is disgusting. subtle manipulation. 1669

mena's being performative again by voting for me showing off that they can't be scum because scum would be crazy to try to flip STD but i don't think he was trying to flip me i think he was showing off that he wants to in order to look townie

i think u both have v differnt playstyles and are scumreading the other for reasons that seem good to you but don't apply to the other and are therefor tunneled
i think this is tvt

[skitter30]

incidentally, i lowkey think that is mena reds, std might actually be the buddy, but i'll think about it if/when mena reds

ya fwiw this wouldn't surprise me in that universe
(this is not to say i think this universe is likely, before people jump on me)

[skitter30]

I'm writing his scumcase in a word doc but let's imagine we're scum!mena for a minute, and look at our options when we enter the thread ~48 hours(? Can't remember exactly) after D2 starts.

> try to lim datisi? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim skitter? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim aristeia? Hm well that's one of like 2.5 players in your corner and seems like a very hard 1v1
> try to lim irrelephant? And look like one of the worst OMGUS's in a long time?

Hm. Realistically the lim will probably be inside the coalition, but if I can get the heat off me for a minute maybe one of them will look bad. Not to mention, if I can take someone (anyone) down before I go down, that's 1/3 of the way to a win. So let me think if there's anyone else limmable:

> try to lim nk15? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim malakittens? Will be way to obviously scummy/might be partner
> try to lim fireisredsir? Doesn't everyone think fire is town? Doubt this gets any traction and gains me an enemy where I currently don't have an enemy
> try to lim std? Enough people scumread him that he didn't make it into the coalition, maybe I could get votes there. At the very least it fits with what I've posted previously in a way that is town. PLUS he's coming for me so I kinda need to discredit him so people don't listen to him. Keeps an enemy where I have an enemy, nothing lost there. Yeah this is the best of 8 sucky options

ok i can understand this thought process, but:
- he can just be waffle-y and not pick anyone to push like me/ari/dats are kinda doing
- his chances of flipping std are exceedingly unlikely

[Aristeia]

i will also point out that your current play today looks p similar to what you're outlining in 4

Dats: Ari is town because she's not really pushing anyone

Ari: Well I could not push anyone as scum too!

Skitter: Ari is definitely not pushing anyone.

Like um ok so?

[skitter30]

---> I think I’m the only one who has suggested this, but I find it extremely unlikely that fire or nk15 are the only scum who voted for it and skitter is the singular scum (and, from anyone else’s POV, that I’m the singular scum) in the coalition. It’s just like a mislim in any other setup, it furthered scum’s wincon so scum almost certainly voted for it, though maybe not both.

---> For this reason, I think scum!skitter’s partner must be fireisredsir or notknown15.

---> This also suggests it’s pretty likely that menalque, datisi, or aristeia is scum

can you say this again? i don't understand what point you're making here

---> This might sound like the last point, but it’s distinct. There were two viable coalitions at EOD1. Skitter, std, and I wanted std in. aristeia, datisi, fire, nk15 and menalque wanted menalque in. malakittens didn’t vote for either. This matters because I believe std to be town, and he was left out. In a world where std and menalque are both town, I think the std coalition would have hammered. In that world:
>>>>>> scum!datisi wouldn’t have objected to std so strongly because std was easier for him to mislim than menalque
>>>>>> scum!aristeia would have continued being accommodating to me/skitter and let it be std to blame us when it failed
>>>>>> scum!skitter is unlikely to get so lucky that a counterwagon appears and goes through without her vote

---> But if menalque is scum, the shift in momentum is obvious: to get menalque into the coalition.

this is actually a decent point

--->In the two games I’ve played of coalition, a way that scum became obvious in those games was a slight undertone of desperation when it seemed likely that town was on its way to forming a coalition without them. The only player I felt that from in this game was fireisredsir, which was a reason I thought he was scum for awhile. But I don’t think fireisredsir would feel desperate on behalf if partnered with any of players in the coalition, since it was consensus from pretty early on that 5 of me/std/aristeia/datisi/skitter/menalque would probably make the coalition. So scum never felt desperate. Well gee how is that helpful since like I just said the reads were mostly consensus all game. Well I personally think it’s a good reason to townread aristeia, who like me offered to stay out of the coalition with fire (I meant it so maybe I’m projecting but I think she meant it too). The more I think about this point… the less impactful it feels. Do with it what you will.

right - i didn't read anybody this way except for like fire ... to me this implies that scum are in the people who were exceedingly likely to get in, like: ari, dats, yourself (i.e. vs the people unlikely to get in)
std was unlikely to get in for a while, and so was mena, so i think it's more damning for those 3 people

i think that your point r.e. lack of townreads have some merit but i don't know if it's ai given how ~out of it ~ he's been for alot of the game
the other points don't resonate with me

[skitter30]

We can lim me today so long as the following order is relly -> ari no exceptions

dont' think scum-mena offers that

[skitter30]

why am i townreading mena for the way he's acting right now

even when i think it's more likely objectively that irrel gets flipped rather than mena

i feel like on some logic level, that should make me see mena's "flip me lol" as scummy but i just don't think it does

i think it's objectively more likely that irrel gets flipped but from a *vibes* level it kinda feels more likely that mena will to me
i literally do not know how to articulate this feeling better

[skitter30]

yes me getting exasperated and getting worried these two are t-t is definitely how i would play it as scum

pls tell me more skitter

you've been dinging me for a lot of the day for not having a solid scumread
you don't either and seem kinda content to just watch this play out

[skitter30]

okay like here's the thing

if someone wants me to get off of menalque they have to point out why as town he would mischaracterize my sr of him specifically to make me look bad

like i'm beyond my sr at this point and locked onto him for that alone

see what i wrote above

[Aristeia]

yes me getting exasperated and getting worried these two are t-t is definitely how i would play it as scum

pls tell me more skitter

you've been dinging me for a lot of the day for not having a solid scumread
you don't either and seem kinda content to just watch this play out

I don't think I've ever felt content today

[Aristeia]

like if we flip irrel and he flips mafia sure i'll be happy but if he flips town I am kind of worried we just lose this

[skitter30]

Like the push on me is so so opportunistic. Meanwhile I've burned all my towncred making this case and it still might not go through?

i mean yes but is that scummy tho

[Aristeia]

I'm not convinced this isn't T-T and I've seen Mena hard tunnel d1 on a townie before.

yea I did say I townread you/dats more than mena/irrel but its not a comfortable feeling

[skitter30]

i will also point out that your current play today looks p similar to what you're outlining in 4

Dats: Ari is town because she's not really pushing anyone

Ari: Well I could not push anyone as scum too!

Skitter: Ari is definitely not pushing anyone.

Like um ok so?

i'm implying that it hink it's scummy for you