Warrior Cats Mafia [Day Three]

[PenguinPower]

Penguin's Unofficial votecount because it's been 19 hours, again

[9]

mastina

: Shiro, Dannflor, fireisredsir, Val89, Bell, PenguinPower, NorwegianboyEE, Alisae, Charloux
[3]

NorwegianboyEE

: mastina, Something_Smart, KittyTacky
[3]

KittyTacky

: Mistyx, catboi, Datisi
[2]

T3

: Marashu, Cephrir
[1]

Datisi

: SCRRRDBEAR
[1]

Bell

: Frozen Angel

[2]

Not Voting

: T3, Titus

—

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to YEET.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-10-30 12:12:34).

[PenguinPower]

nice

[NorwegianboyEE]

ok nvm the discussion wasn't that interesting, i'm just an idiot

anyway, she claimed apprentice into 2-shot town crier. that has to submit during the day, and that may or may not (?) work when she's dead too

yeah basically

i have no doubt it's a true claim, just y'know, idk what's the alignment lole

Okiedokie

[fireisredsir]

It should be noted that that was both a multiball game (I could get real read progression, not needing to fake it), and also I had a negative utility role so I knew from the onset that I needed to die for my team to stand a chance (so I deliberately didn't want to go into too much detail, as to avoid spewing players town after I flipped).

hmm this is actually a pretty good point i didn't think of that you would be genuinely scumhunting

i looked at control and it kinda does match the description of "have reads at the start of the game and never adapt" with lots of walls about why you're obviously town and how confident you are and basically any topic except giving reasoning for reads

but in that you linked subreddit upick, which i also looked at and i think is a much better scumgame and shows more thought and progression and responding to new info just on d1 than you've even done here, and even more on later days

so i still think that FA's description of your play was very ungenerous to your abilities as scum, and your own kinda encouraging that perception here and downplaying your scum abilities is actually p scummy imo bc based on your post-game comments from those games i don't really think that you would actually agree with that perception? its just that here it's convenient for you

[fireisredsir]

Are we absolutely sure that executioner isn’t an possible role in this game?

I know right? It's a huge part of why I TR Datisi, since I am town, doing this as scum would be delayed suicide once I flip green.

i don't get this thought process at all but the sort of self-centeredness kinda vibes towny to me

[Mistyx]

i feel that voting based on perceived alignments is currently suboptimal for me to do and i have severe distaste for that fact

[Mistyx]

VOTE: T3

rage, rage against the dying of the light

that’s a song lyric right

i don’t think i’ve ever heard it

[Cephrir]

idk i did go read mastina's most recent scum game and i don't think this is really accurate, she's not like incapable of progression as scum. but i think there she was a lot less willing to go into detail on reasoning or respond to new posts and stuff. and i think the level to which she's doing that here is closer to that than it is to her play in datisi's cafe as town

It should be noted that that was both a multiball game (I could get real read progression, not needing to fake it), and also I had a negative utility role so I knew from the onset that I needed to die for my team to stand a chance (so I deliberately didn't want to go into too much detail, as to avoid spewing players town after I flipped).

What a lot of folks don't seem to get is that there's more than one mastina scumgame style (but most of them have in common: "find the least-effort way to easiest generate a scum win", the shortest path to victory, doing the least amount necessary, and in general, not relying on myself to carry), and there's more than one town mastina style, and that both are affected by real life factors, and that being affected by those real life factors doesn't change those alignments, it just changes the representation of them. And most people get those affected-by-rl representations wrong.

It's not really worth going into detail tho, because my flip will do the talking for me in demonstrating once more that basically everyone who claims to know my meta, is bullshitting, because if they

did

know my meta they would know I was town.

What IS worth talking about?

Spoiler: past version

{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)

TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}

{PenguinPower}

TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}

???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}


PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}

SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.

I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.

Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.

I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.

When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.

Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.

Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.

Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.

Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.

The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)

The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.


The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.

Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.

Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.

SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.

Rest, meh.

Updated:

100% reads

:

TOWN:

{Datisi, Dannflor, catboi}

SCUM:

{NorwegianboyEE}

NO DOUBT

:

TOWN:

{Frozen Angel}

SCUM:

{Alisae}

HIGH CONFIDENCE

:

(~80-90%)

TOWN:

{Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Mistyx}

MID-CONFIDENCE

:

(~65-75%)

TOWN:

{Charloux}

LOW-CONFIDENCE

:

(~50-60%)

TOWN:

{Cephrir}

SCUM:

{Something_Smart}

ZERO-CONFIDENCE

:

(fucked if I know)

{SCRRRDBEAR town?}
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
{PenguinPower, KittyTacky}

{Titus}

As a reminder: baseline is 0%. So 50% isn't null, 50% is +50% from null. 60% isn't 10% above null, it's 60% above null.

Norwee moves up to a locked read because I discussed my read on him in the neighborhood and I realized that, actually, yeah. I CAN soulread Norwee. He IS scum. I guarantee you he is scum. 100% guaranteed. I reviewed it in my head countless times. I approached it from every angle, wondering, "am I wrong here?". But I'm not.
I don't know why I can soulread Norwee. But I can. And he's scum this game. You might not believe me today, but it doesn't matter. You want to eliminate scum, you eliminate Norwee. Period. I guarantee you. Literally 100% guarantee you. Norwee is scum. Norwee is so scum that if a cop claims an inno on him, the cop is lying.

I know Norwee's play. I know I can read him. I know that he's scum here. He's the one player onsite that I can randomly soulread. And he is scum, here.
I know I

should

give reasons for why he's scum, demonstrating why he's scum, but I'm done being mastina so I'm done trying to explain reads. It's a read I'm NEVER wrong about tho. I KNOW I can read Norwee, and I KNOW that Norwee's scum this game.

Frozen Angel, her posting and stances I believe are town aside from the meta suggestion she's town. I'm comfortable locking her there as town, with no doubts.

Alisae I realize people think e's town today, but when Alisae continues to defend Norwee to the death when Norwee flips scum, remember that Alisae has done so from the onset. Remember every mislim Alisae pushes through, and e will push through several! Remember all the players that are town that Alisae ends up suspecting. Eventually, Alisae will feel the pressure of widely not being seen town anymore, and at that point will probably bus, but then e will use the towncred from that bus to leverage even more mislims. So remember this and remember that all of it collectively means that Alisae is scum.

I remembered the reasons on fire beyond "fire isn't playing like Datisi's cafe, therefore town", and yes, they are good. fire's early thoughts I find highly town, highly accurate, and highly reasonable in a way unlikely to be scum. His engagement has just felt a lot more natural and organic this game. Tonewise he's an entirely different player and that tells me probably town. But, I've never played with fire outside of Datisi's cafe, so it's not the same level of locktown. He IS locktown tho.

Mistyx's posts have gotten better throughout the game, raising her to locktown as well. She's different from what I remember her being like as scum, is matching what I remember her being like as town, and has tone similar to fire that I think is town. But it's not a 100% read.

Bell's reads are honestly shit this game (see also, he thinks I'm scum, he pushed Datisi), which is in of itself a concern, and he's not QUITE as active and strong as I know a town Bell to be, but I'm still like 90% sure this is Bell's towngame because his activity has picked up (rather than died down) and he is being fairly strongly present.

Marashu is never scum here for their entering posts. Everything about Marashu radiates town. Marashu is only this low because no familiarity with Marashu.

Ditto for Val. Val is never scum here for their perspectives throughout the game, the sheer town tone, and being initially suspect of scum (Norwee, Alisae) but later ending up pocketed by them in a way that hard-spews Val town. The only reason this is a 90% rather than 100% is lack of familiarity with Val.

Charloux, I basically believe the clan leaders are all (or at least mostly) town both reads-wise (Dannflor and FA are locktown), and also mech-spec-wise (them being town makes sense given the apprentice mechanic). Play-wise Charloux's content has felt fairly good, but my lack of engagement with the majority of Charloux's stances as well as lack of familiarity keep this from being stronger.

Ceph, vibe-wise I just have a gut-town read on him. He's notoriously difficult to read, but he just seems town?

Something_Smart, similarly so, vibes as scum.

The rest, fucked if I know, with the exception of Titus.

I think Titus is scum here because I feel that if Titus were town here, she would be defending me as town in a similar way that Frozen Angel is defending me right now. Titus should

know

why I am town this game (similarly to how FA does), and yet, she is not defending me.
I know that she's busy. I know she's not doing much in the game.
But I know she's not too busy to defend me. Which is why I feel her lack of doing so is loosely scum-indicative.
But it's not a strong read because I realize that she is playing this game solo, and as a solo-Titus, she is less likely to be engaged when as busy as she is. The timeline crunch with her absent feels a little suspect, her lack of defense of me feels a little suspect, but it's not strong.

I'm NEVER wrong on any of these.

I guarantee you.

I can soulread Norwee and Norwee is scum this game.

I guarantee you that all of Datisi, Dannflor, and catboi are town.
I guarantee you that FA is town, too, albeit not to the same tier as the holy trinity is.

And given the above guarantees, between my read on em and eir stances over the game, you'll be able to

eventually

see that Alisae is scum, too.

But I'm done fighting for the reads in spite of being more sure than ever in the above being true.

Pagetopping these!

It's from a poem

[fireisredsir]

its a poem!

SS what are your current thoughts on norwee and mastina?

[Mistyx]

oi stop quoting that giant wall some of us play on mobile

[Cephrir]

The Q+ button and my fat fingers are a match made in heck

[Alisae]

Mastina flip waiting room

[Mistyx]

i need more memes i don’t have enough warrior cat memes

[PenguinPower]

[Something_Smart]

SS what are your current thoughts on norwee and mastina?

I think I lean town on mastina because what she's doing just feels like a big throw as scum, and I lean scum on Norwee because I'm inclined to trust mastina to some extent (obviously not as much as she claims we should).

[Alisae]

You're going to have to suggest an alternative other than Norwee who's wagon had peaked at 5 votes.

[Something_Smart]

Norwee peaked at 6 which is higher than any other wagon did (at least according to VC's).

[Alisae]

Copium
not happening
please suggest alternative option

[Something_Smart]

I think it's fair to say that no counterwagon is happening.

I'd switch to Kitty if that got more support.

[Datisi]

something something be the change you wish to see

[Charloux]

I think it's fair to say that no counterwagon is happening.

I'd switch to Kitty if that got more support.

I would switch to it in a heartbeat if it was viable

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think it's fair to say that no counterwagon is happening.

I'd switch to Kitty if that got more support.

That probably would get more support so why aren't you?

[Ydrasse]

VOTE COUNT 1.10

[9]

mastina

: Shiro, Dannflor, fireisredsir, Val89, Bell, PenguinPower, NorwegianboyEE, Alisae, Charloux
[3]

NorwegianboyEE

: mastina, Something_Smart, KittyTacky
[3]

T3

: Marashu, Cephrir, Mistyx
[2]

KittyTacky

: catboi, Datisi
[1]

Datisi

: SCRRRDBEAR
[1]

Bell

: Frozen Angel

[2]

Not Voting

: T3, Titus

—

With 21 alive, it takes 11 to eliminate.

Day one ends in (expired on 2022-10-30 12:12:34).

MOD NOTES

• have fun!

• let us know if you have any questions, or if something's wrong! sorry for the vc errors, i've been sustained by cold medicine the past few days.

• currently v/la: shiro, fireisredsir

• a joint mod iso may be found here!

[Cephrir]

VOTE: kittytacky just to see what happens

[fireisredsir]

SS what are your current thoughts on norwee and mastina?

I think I lean town on mastina because what she's doing just feels like a big throw as scum, and I lean scum on Norwee because I'm inclined to trust mastina to some extent (obviously not as much as she claims we should).

ok can you share more of your thought process of why you put her as scum when you did your readlist? ik afterwards you said you were going back and forth, what made you decide to put her as scum?

that just seemed kind of out of place with the rest of the way you were handling them