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Post Post #1825 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:12 am

Post by The Pied Piper »

Ranger, talk to me when you have time. You don't have to answer all of this; leave out the parts you don't think are important and I'll pursue them or I won't, but I'm trying to see where you're coming from.

Spoiler: questions for ranger about her catchup posts
Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez}
{The Pied Piper}
{Cerberus v666}
{Skybird}
{dramonic, Axelrod}
{beeboy, Friendless Seniors}
{Spiffeh}

One.
Why were and sharing a tier on page 1? Was Seniors so low because they suggested a policy lynch or for some other reason? Was Spiffeh on the bottom for claiming or some other reason?


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez}
{The Pied Piper}
{Cerberus v666}
{Skybird}
{dramonic, Axelrod}
{
Sakura Hana
}
{beeboy, Friendless Seniors.
The Wrong Lynch
}
{Spiffeh}

Two.
(Bolded the changes)
What was wrong with posting on page 2?
Is Sakura's postition primarily based on or a different one?


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez}
{The Pied Piper}
{Cerberus v666}
{Skybird,
SnarkySnowman
}
{dramonic, Axelrod,
davesaz
}
{Sakura Hana,
Mirhawk, beeboy
}
{Friendless Seniors. The Wrong Lynch}
{Spiffeh}

Three.
Is beeboy rising because he was making so much noise?


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez,
beeboy
}
{The Pied Piper}
{Cerberus v666}
{Skybird, SnarkySnowman}
{dramonic, Axelrod,
Sakura Hana
}
{Mirhawk,
davesaz
}
{Friendless Seniors, The Wrong Lynch}
{Spiffeh}

Four.
Why does beeboy jump to the top on page 4 specifically?, sakura goes up a notch for or something else?, davesaz is falling a little due to other people being rearranged or some other reason?


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy}
{The Pied Piper}
{Cerberus v666}
{Skybird, SnarkySnowman}
{dramonic, Axelrod, Sakura Hana}
{davesaz}
{Mirhawk}

{Friendless Seniors, The Wrong Lynch}
{Spiffeh}
{True Ogre}


Five.
Is davesaz a little bit towner than mirhawk on this page because of or something else?
Is True Ogre at the bottom because of how late their entrance was? Because of withholding their vote? It feels like True Ogre's stances in were fairly similar to your own stances. Did the post feel like testing the waters to you or something else?


Ranger wrote:
VOTE: True Ogre.
{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy}
{The Pied Piper,
Skybird
}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman}
{dramonic, Axelrod, Sakura Hana}
{davesaz}
{Mirhawk}
{Friendless Seniors, The Wrong Lynch}
{Spiffeh,
tictac
}
{True Ogre}

[snip]...six.
True Ogre vote because of their vote at the top of page 6 or?
Almost
asked hey why isn't swordsworth on your readslist. Then I felt dumb!
Skybird is towner because of of Ogre or?
is tictac scummy for the things they're missing in or the things they're noticing?


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman}
{dramonic, Axelrod, Sakura Hana}
{davesaz}
{Mirhawk}
{The Wrong Lynch,
tictac
}
{Spiffeh,
Friendless Seniors
}
{True Ogre}

8.
If Spiffeh is supposed to be obvtown, so far, it's not showing.
tictac a little townier for ? seniors a little scummier for ? Do you think there's probably exactly one scum in each of these lists:
Friendless Seniors wrote:town: tictac, beeboy, mirhawk
scum: cakez, dave, ogre



Ranger wrote:Tonality-wise, though, page nine does give a glimpse of what might be a town-Spiffeh.

That gets me to this:
{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman}
{dramonic, Axelrod, Sakura Hana}
{davesaz}
{Mirhawk}
{
Spiffeh
}
{The Wrong Lynch, tictac}
{Friendless Seniors}
{True Ogre}
Because of his interactions with us or something else?

Nothing else on page 9 affected your reads on any other slots?


Ranger wrote: is enough.
VOTE: Friendless Seniors.

{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy,
Amihan
}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman,
pistachi0n
}
{dramonic, Axelrod, Sakura Hana,
davesaz
}
{Mirhawk}
{Spiffeh}
{The Wrong Lynch, tictac}
{Friendless Seniors}
{True Ogre}
You're voting Seniors but you still have Ogre beneath them in your readslist. Is this intentional? Is pistachi0n's place here solely due to her miller claim? Is Amihan's place solely due to the miller gambit? I feel like Spiffeh got towner on page 11. You didn't? Why is Mirhawk's position unchanged? There's very little motion in your readslist around this time. What would you attribute that to? is a naked vote on pistachi0n in response to amihan's counterclaim. Why was this vote worse than the other votes that were piling on at this time? (This is partially answered in your but why are naked votes from hiplop surprising to you? If you can tell that the naked voter was hiplop, and I agree that was almost certainly him, that means that naked voting isn't surprising from hiplop except in this case it is?)


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman, pistachi0n,
Sakura Hana
}
{dramonic, Axelrod, davesaz}
{Spiffeh}
{The Wrong Lynch, tictac,
Mirhawk
}
{Friendless Seniors}
{True Ogre}

Should waited until the
end
of page 14 before making a list.
Okay, so Mirhawk got a little worse in , but they didn't get worse before that? I feel like they were already worse before .


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman, pistachi0n, Sakura Hana}
{dramonic, Axelrod, davesaz}
{Spiffeh,
The Wrong Lynch
}
{tictac, Mirhawk}
{Friendless Seniors}
{True Ogre}

also feels like a scum-Errant for what it's worth.
Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman, pistachi0n, Sakura Hana}
{dramonic, Axelrod, davesaz}
{Spiffeh, The Wrong Lynch}
{tictac,
True Ogre
}
{Friendless Seniors,
Mirhawk
}

Same page, reordering accuracy. This is a more accurate reads list.
Can you talk some about your Cakez read? I realise it hasn't changed since page 1 but that's part of the problem I'm having with it. What did you like about Ogre and Mala's posting on page 16 in particular?


Ranger wrote:, minus beeboy (as Spiffeh said, beeboy's town), plus Mirhawk (but
not
pistachi0n), is basically where I'm at now if you couldn't tell.

Unfortunately, I have to leave soon (just enough time to read the current posts), so I'll leave with half the game finished, and a reads list currently looking like this:
Untouchable town: {Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
Decently-strong town: {The Pied Piper, Skybird}
Rogue tier: {Cerberus v666}
Town: {SnarkySnowman, pistachi0n, Sakura Hana}
Mostly town: {dramonic, Axelrod, davesaz}
Town with minor reserves: {The Wrong Lynch,
podoboq
, Spiffeh}
Probably scum: {tictac, True Ogre}
Most definitely scum: {Friendless Seniors, Mirhawk}

Cerberus is honestly a rogue tier. He could be placed in any tier above tictac that's not the untouchable-town tier right now, and it wouldn't be out of place honestly.
Other than that, the tiers are approximately: {Untouchable, decently-strong town, town, mostly-town, town-with-minor-reserves, probably scum, most definitely scum}.
(i edited the labels into the tiers to make it easier for myself to follow.)

Snarky isn't falling a little? I know that Cerberus is a rogue tier but did his predecessor's "18 pages holy moly" affect your read in any direction?

Is your town read on podoboq partially based on how cute he is?

Is your dramonic read meta based or?

What do you think of the rest of Cakez' seven scumreads? You pointed at his and said what you thought of them but he was also considering pistachi0n, mirhawk, and you.


Ranger wrote:{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird}
{Cerberus v666}
{SnarkySnowman, pistachi0n, Sakura Hana}
{dramonic, davesaz,
podoboq
}
{The Wrong Lynch, Spiffeh,
Axelrod
}
{True Ogre}
{tictac}

{Friendless Seniors, Mirhawk}
Is podoboq improving because of posts like where he's looking past things he doesn't like to townread people in spite of antitown behaviour? Because of the jester questions on page 21?

What did you think of ? I notice it didn't leave a mark on your readslist.

What did you think of chiming in to the jester conversation and continuing to ignore everything going on in the thread?

Given that Seniors is/was one of your strongest scumreads, what do you think of which occurs right after Amihan has retracted her miller counterclaim but before anyone has really had time to unvote. How does this affect your read on Amihan? I've been townreading her until now but I've got this sudden worry that we're underestimating her. At the time of her counterclaim, Seniors had 5 votes on them, Cakes had 3, and then there were a bunch of vanity wagons. At the end of it, pistachi0n was the leading wagon, Mirhawk was starting to look bad with 4 votes on them, and the only people left voting Seniors were Snarky, Ogre, and beeboy.

The time to do something crazy is when multiple members of the scumteam are in trouble because things can hardly get worse and they might get better. This would make Mirhawk and pistachi0n both likely town, and Seniors, Cakez, and Amihan all scum. Axel too, maybe, for .

Is Ogre looking better for mixing up the heads in my hydra on page 22 or something else?

What did you think of pistachi0n's ?

This is a page 24 readslist. I feel like so much has happened in these 4 pages that isn't reflected in your readslist. :(


Ranger wrote: means I can
finally
stop orphaning my Cerb read.
{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird,
pistachi0n, podoboq, Cerberus v666
}
{SnarkySnowman, Sakura Hana}
{davesaz,
Spiffeh
}
{The Wrong Lynch, Axelrod,
dramonic
}
{True Ogre}
{tictac}
{Friendless Seniors, Mirhawk}

Most of these are reads getting stronger, but True Ogre looks more town (still more likely to be scum than not, just less likely scum than before) and read atrophy is why Axelrod and dramonic have dropped a few pegs.
Was a large part of why podoboq moved up?

I agree that Tammy's town but it feels like you've written her off as town.

Dramonic did post during this time actually and so did Axel. Why don't you have read atrophy on Snarky?

Why is enough to make Cerberus town? Have you played with scumCerberus before? Is he that bad at it?

/page36


Ranger wrote:
Spiffeh wrote:Ugh I feel like I have too many townreads and someone is dogging me
This is one of the reasons dramonic and Axelrod have dropped in my reads.

Another being I hated Axel's reads when he did give them.

Speaking of which,
{Tammy, SirCakez, beeboy, Amihan,
Cerberus v666
}
{The Pied Piper, Skybird, pistachi0n, podoboq,
Sakura Hana
}
{
SnarkySnowman
}
{davesaz, Spiffeh}
{The Wrong Lynch, dramonic}
{
Axelrod
}
{True Ogre}
{tictac}
{Friendless Seniors, Mirhawk}
Now the orphaned read is SnarkySnowman. My stance on Cerb now applies to him; he could be anywhere above Axelrod that's below untouchable.
This is your final readslist for when you were caught up. I know you've made a few since then but I haven't had time to examine the pages they're based on in depth yet.

I'm sort of running out of steam to be reskimming the parts of the game that i'd already read when I desperately need to get caught up myself, and I don't even really disagree with this list as such because it's pretty similar to what my own lynch pool was looking like around that time and I do think there's scum in [mirhawk, seniors] though I don't think they make sense as scum together right now.

But at the same time, and maybe it's an artifact of reading so much in such a short time but I feel like there are some eddies in the thread that didn't leave ripples in your readslist. :(
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Post Post #1826 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:15 am

Post by Rob14 »

Vote Count #1.23:


Friendless Seniors:
SnarkySnowman, podoboq, Skybird, Ranger, Sakura Hana, True Ogre, tictac (7)
Ranger:
davesaz, beeboy, Amihan, Mirhawk, Friendless Seniors (5)
Mirhawk:
THE WRONG LYNCH, The Pied Piper, Cerberus v666 (3)
tictac:
SirCakez, Spiffeh (2)
SirCakez:
Tammy (1)
Skybird:
pistachi0n (1)
dramonic:
Axelrod (1)
Axelrod:
dramonic (1)

Not Voting:
None.

With 21 players alive, it takes 11 to lynch.


V/LA:
None.

Deadline:
(expired on 2016-04-06 21:00:00)
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Post Post #1827 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:11 am

Post by SirCakez »

I'll do the Ranger ISO and town case as soon as I get home, sorry for flaking on that.
I'm not as comfortable with a Seniors lynch anymore. I'd really prefer Mirhawk.
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Post Post #1828 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:39 am

Post by True Ogre »

Rob13 wrote:
SirCakez:
Tammy (1)
Skybird:
pistachi0n (1)
dramonic:
Axelrod (1)
Axelrod:
dramonic (1)


These people need to move their votes.
True Ogre WINS!
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Post Post #1829 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:41 am

Post by tictac »

I also have questions for Ranger.

Ranger wrote:
beeboy wrote:Spiff is prob town here even if he can't see obv scum.
That's the problem.

Spiffeh
does
see obvscum in my experience.

Why was Seniors obvscum on page 9?

Ranger wrote:{tictac, Mirhawk}
{Friendless Seniors}
{True Ogre}

Ranger wrote:{tictac, True Ogre}
{Friendless Seniors, Mirhawk}

Same page, reordering accuracy. This is a more accurate reads list.

What does reordering accuracy mean here? What are the relevant tiers?
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Post Post #1830 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:47 am

Post by Spiffeh »

VOTE: Ranger
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Post Post #1831 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 2:59 am

Post by beeboy »

1 day 11 hours let's see a ranger lynch plz
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
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Post Post #1832 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 3:40 am

Post by The Pied Piper »

SirCakez wrote:Omg Ranger's reads are pretty fantastic.
Were Ranger's reads fantastic primarily because they agreed with yours? What read of hers did you find most surprising?

Mirhawk wrote:Lol sure. I'm not the one who you're going to have to justify this to later anyhow. I already think you're scum.
Are you scumreading Pistachi0n for more than miller claim?

Ranger wrote:
SirCakez wrote:There were three scum replace outs in a Mini Theme I just finished and no town replace outs.
My mini normal also had three scum replace-outs and no town replace-outs, too. Incidentally, Mirhawk replaced in.

I have deliberately been avoiding comparing this game to that game because it's a whopping sample size of one, but for what it's worth, there are some strong elements of the same game Mirhawk had there in here.
My mini had 1 town pregame replace out. My micros had 1 and 2 town replaceouts. My blitz had two town replace outs. One of my newbies had two town pregame replacements and the other had 1 town and 1 scum replacement. In the game where I backup modded there was 3 town replacements and the large where I replaced in as moderator there was 1 town and 3 scum replacements.

Ranger wrote:Orphaned read: I don't really have any definitive place for SnarkySnowman, and am hoping to see more of him. I liked his early posting, which got him that high in the first place, and his posting since then hasn't made me think "could be scum", I just don't have anything right now that gives me an idea of where he'd be on the town scale, he's just somewhere in there.
What about Snarky's early posting did you like? What kind of posting would you have expected from scumSnarky early on? It looks like the game you played with scumSnarky was multiball.

SnarkySnowman wrote:Or don't vig me tonight, that would be nice. I take a while to get into large games, and I'm not quite feeling this one yet.
I want to sympathise with this because I remember my first large and how long it took me to get my head into the game (an entire month) but this isn't your first large. As far as I can tell from your ISO, your readslist is:

SnarkySnowman's Readslist{}
{Amihan, Axelrod, beeboy, Cerberus v666, davesaz, dramonic, Mirhawk, pistachi0n, podoboq, Sakura Hana, SirCakez, Skybird, Spiffeh, Tammy, The Pied Piper, THE WRONG LYNCH, tictac, True Ogre}
{}


That's certainly a start. I know your wiki says that you hate day 1. I used to hate day 1 too. You've played with some of us before, though:

  • In Fire and Ice,
    you
    played with
    beeboy
    and
    Ranger
    .
  • In Midsummer Night's Dream,
    you
    played with
    Goodmorning
    ,
    Spiffeh
    ,
    Friendless Seniors
    , and
    beeboy
    .
  • In Machina, your first large,
    you
    saw
    Ranger
    ,
    Nacho
    ,
    Tammy
    , and
    Spiffeh
    .
  • In Miller's hollow
    you
    saw
    Plotinus
    . Miller's Hollow wasn't a large but it might as well have been with 40 pages in 2 real life days and a 90 page day 1.
  • In your first newbie game,
    you
    met
    Cakez
    and
    Goodmorning
    was your IC.


You don't have to compare our play with previous games if that's not your thing. You can keep it to this game if you prefer, but I think it's not an accident that the two reads you do have are on players that you've met before. I'd like you to try to have reads on at least a few more slots and familiar faces can be easier than strangers sometimes, so what do you think of
beeboy
,
spiffeh
,
the wrong lynch
,
cakez
, and
the pied piper
?

A good goal is to be transparent about your thoughts. If you have a bunch of thoughts on things, bring them up even if they sound a little ridiculous. If you don't have thoughts on things, say so.

How can I understand what your motivations are if you don't explain what stances you have or why you have them? I personally think it's more likely that you're having trouble faking reads (since it's harder to fake reads than form them naturally) than you simply not having any.
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Post Post #1833 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 4:11 am

Post by The Pied Piper »

davesaz wrote:
The Pied Piper wrote:
davesaz wrote:Plenty of inferences can be made from it, granted. I just have a preference for straightforward "Joe is scum because of X,Y,Z" type posts.
You may prefer this when you're reading but you don't prefer this when you're writing.

I do try to make reasons clear for my scumreads, though it would not surprise me a bit if they are less clear for others. One of my RL struggles is difficulty in getting my assumptions right about what other people understand. Also available time varies a lot plus I do know how to strategically use a weak push for reactions... :wink:
It's okay, but you've only used "because" 5 times in your ISO to explain your thoughts (the other 16 times it appears are from quotations or questions.) You did explain your reads more than 5 times but sometimes you leave off the because or sometimes when you're just asking questions it's hard to tell if you're also scumreading the person you're questioning or if you think they're town and are trying to compare notes or something in between. I'm not always the best at reading between the lines but I probably don't really need the level of resolution that I prefer.

davesaz wrote:
No read on tictac at all. And "biggest" is relative, I typically don't have someone in a strong townread this early and this game is no exception.
That makes sense.

davesaz wrote:
Pied Piper wrote:
You were defending seniors early on (, ) but you backed down pretty quickly in response to pressure and haven't interacted with them since. I'm worried that this is a result of beeboy taking the stance that everyone who supported his tunnel was town and everyone who resisted it was scum because beeboy was making a lot of noise and you may have worried that beeboy's guns may be turned on you. You've been explicitly townreading beeboy since .

Defending Seniors is incorrect. I didn't have a read at that point. It is more accurate to say that in I was questioning the method used by beeboy. There was no point in followup because it was obvious that beeboy was going to tunnel the point. is a weak scumread of Snarky. No fear involved, I feel confident that this playerlist is likely to read me correctly (after getting it wrong multiple times in the past). As noted below, beeboy is more "not scum" than "clearly town".
It did occur to me that Seniors could've been null for you at that time. It fits with you backing down too: there's a limit to how far a person is willing to go to defend a null read from attacks.

Trusting a playerlist who has misread you multiple times in the past to get it right this time feels like a townier stance than not.

davesaz wrote:
The pied piper wrote:
Everyone else is a morass of null for you but gun to your head you are more suspicious about this half of the players (S -> W): mirhawk, dramonic, Axel, spiffeh, skybird, cakez, podoboq, snarky, amihan, pistachi0n,
and more trusting of this half of the players (S -> W): True Ogre, Us, beeboy, tictac, The Wrong Lynch, seniors, cerb, tammy, sakura, ranger

Spiffeh on the nulltown side, cakez is stale and needs review, amihan is much more town than that, tictac is much lower, seniors somewhat lower. Ranger could do this as scum so I'd start her in the middle and will need to see post-catchup activity to determine whether this is a strong town entrance or a masterful scum one. I'm warming up to the Ranger style reads lists, with fewer tiers, vs the S->W method. In fact enough players have town S->W and scum W->S, or vice versa, that I didn't interpret the town list correctly on first read. Tammy and Sakura would be higher, I haven't put much effort into sorting your slot and you'd be lower due to that, and it's most accurate to say that beeboy doesn't look scum but I wouldn't sheep.
The reason I thought you might be scumreading Spiffeh was -?+? -?, -, -?=.
Your only mention of Amihan was in ; I figured that you not asking her anything after the miller thing was due to you townreading her but I wasn't sure to what extent or how much to read into the silence. Looking at my map, I think that accounts for all the differences in placement. Thank you for your responses to this.

Davesaz about Spiffeh wrote:For me, trouble reading means a player stays null for a long time and it's never really strong either way.
I think that's a better kind of trouble to have than the kind where you can't help townreading someone you know you shouldn't or wind up with a scumread that you know is based on non alignment indicative things but it's hard to push through that and see what's
is
indicative, both of which are problems I have sometimes.
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Post Post #1834 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 5:51 am

Post by Skybird »

SirCakez wrote:I'll do the Ranger ISO and town case as soon as I get home, sorry for flaking on that.
I'm not as comfortable with a Seniors lynch anymore. I'd really prefer Mirhawk.


What has changed your read on Seniors?
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Post Post #1835 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:18 am

Post by The Pied Piper »

Mirhawk wrote:She's slotted every person into what appears to be a fairly solid read with little to no justification for almost any of them.
This is bog standard Ranger, but in my experience, she is capable of providing reasoning if reasoning is desired.

Mirhawk wrote:Also where the heck is TWL?

I haven't seen anything of substance from them since 751.
They said in the signups thread (and reiterated it the multiple times that someone brought it up), that they would have limited access. Mala works long hours and is also going to school. It is not scummy for her to not be able to post frequently. It's important to read her on the quality of her posting, not the quantity.

This is not a fair attack to make.

Cerberus v666 wrote:I need to interact with people other than [Mirhawk]/FS, right now the game is revolving around too few people for me to be comfortable with the game state, but I feel as though my initial read through was too hasty and I don't have a firm grasp on the nuances of things. :(
Do you still feel this is the case?

THE WRONG WAGON wrote:
Skybird wrote:Ranger's entrance and catch-up feels town to me.

It kinda does to me??

I don't really like the fact she put Tammy up at a top tier when she was absent for like pages at a time and before that her posts didn't really sway me either way.

Idk.

It's just feels made up

~M
I think Tammy being absent for pages at a time is a result of her IRL schedule, just like yours is. I think the page 1 townread of Tammy was premature and I went and looked at Mafiception where Ranger also townread Tammy pretty early but I didn't get as much out of this exercise as I thought I would.

beeboy wrote:Why did this games activity quarter?
I don't know but I really appreciate it because the thought that I could be 72 pages behind instead of 18 is nightmare fuel. Thank you everybody for your efforts to only post when you have something to say.

Ranger wrote:And, yes. This is the peak of my town game. Maybe I've been more town than in this game in some prior game, but subjectively, I can tell you I've never felt more town than this game before. The question isn't whether I'm town or scum, it's whether I'm accurate-town or inaccurate-town
This is how I felt in that horrid blitz. And how I still feel about my play there. I don't think I'll ever be as town as I was in that game, and nobody could see it. Perhaps that's what made me so town.

Ugggh i don't have time for another side project when I am eighteen pages behind :(

Am I a sucker or is this a townpost?

Ranger wrote:
podoboq wrote:@Ranger: whose lynch and flip provides the most information for town? Is there another metric that we should use to determine who we lynch today?
Well, those two give the most information in my opinion.

For instance, a lynch on Mirhawk will elevate Amihan and pistachi0n to truly-confirmed-town, among others. It also would reveal many of the strong Mirhawk pushers as being town. (I'd have to skim to name them all and why they're not bussing.)

A lynch on Friendless Seniors would serve a similarly-informative purpose.

They give the most information, they have the highest chance of flipping scum, they are the two leading wagons. For day one, you literally could not ask for better lynches.
In my experience, all of the times I thought I would get information out of lynching somebody, I didn't.

"they have the highest chance of flipping scum" is the only point in here that I find compelling. Have you talked about why they're scum together at any point?

True Ogre wrote:Yes I suppose we have a couple of times. Your read on me is wrong which actually matches you as town. Your entrance of sorting and ignoring outside happenings matches you as town. I'm jsut not a fan of your "night on untouchable town" list, mainly.
because of Cakez or somebody else too?

Ranger wrote:I was waiting for a votecount. I have one. If the votes haven't changed since then, I will move to you. If they have, then I'll see who they have moved onto and who was moving and evaluate from there.
Ranger, this is reminding me of something you said in Blitz 19. Can you tell me what that thing was and why it is reminding me of that thing?

SirCakez wrote:I think Ranger is town here tbh. Her play is reeking of her town game, I read Mafiaception and her play is nothing like it was there.
Can you explain this meta read with some more words?

podoboq wrote:So I think Ranger is obvtown here, but even if she isn't, what does it honestly matter for today's lynch? We were probably going to lynch Mirhawk or FS anyway.

I suggest we proceed as normal. If today's lynch flips scum, what does that say about Ranger? If they flip town, we can reassess.

In case this is some super complicated bussing, I'd suggest FS as our lynch tonight since Ranger is voting Mirhawk. Plus, this way we can get beeboy on the wagon.

VOTE: FriendlessSeniors

If there's a flaw on this logic, someone please point it out to me.
If you think Ranger's town, then you think she's not bussing. If you think she's bussing, then you think that she's scum voting her partner, so you vote the person that she's not voting because?

Tammy wrote:I'm enacting skim the game agogo
I wish I knew how to skim :(

Tammy wrote:(this is more likely than the quote stripe reading :/)
:(

podoboq wrote:I wasn't given pause by beeboy, but this is making me reconsider. I still think the best course of action is to continue as normal for the day, and reevaluate during the next day. One of Mirhawk or FS is almost definitely scum, and scum!Ranger would probably deflect onto the townie, so why not move forward with the person who wasn't her target in case it's a ruse?
Okay, this makes more sense but here's what you're considering as I understand it:

  • Ranger is town because effort and high resolution of catchup.
  • Ranger could be scum bussing.
  • Ranger could be scum trying to derail a wagon off a scum player onto a town player


This is true: Ranger is definitely [scum or town] and Ranger is definitely voting [scum or town]. But that doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know.

If you think the most logical option is that she's town, which I'm guessing you do because you started your earlier post with "Ranger is obvtown", then your vote means that you think she is town who is wrong about her reads. Why do you think this is the most likely of the four options?

Tammy wrote:Then she stepped in the midst of Sakura's sort by telling her you hadn't done anything out of the ordinary. It just did not feel right.
That makes sense to me.

Tammy wrote:Do you like amihan's posting because you want to give her a hug for being adorable? That's why I was town reading her.
At the time this was posted, I think that was playing into my read on her; not sure about nacho. How do you feel about podoboq's posting? I keep wanting to talk to him the way I wished someone had talked to me in WDPT.

podoboq wrote:beeboy wanted reads on a few people, so I just decided I'd post a read on the whole town,

On a scale of 1-7 where 1 is obvscum and 7 is obvtown. X is a person (or hydra) who I basically have no read on either because I haven't paid enough attention to their walls, or I'm just completely torn.

Of note, I scumread prolonged inactivity, especially when paired with useless posts and prod dodges. Sorry 'bout you, Snarky. Also, hydras have been hard for me to get a read on.

Amihan - 7
pistachi0n - 7
beeboy - 6
SirCakez - 5
Tammy - 5
Axelrod - 5
Sakura Hana - 5
tictac* - 5
davesaz - 5
Mirhawk - 4
Spiffeh - 4
Ranger - 4
Skybird - 3
True Ogre - 3
Friendless Seniors (hiplop/Errantparabola) - 2
SnarkySnowman - 2
dramonic* - 1

The Pied Piper (Plotinus/nachomamma8) - ??
Cerberus v666 - ??
THE WRONG LYNCH (Malakittens/goodmorning) - ??

This was super on the cuff, and obviously, all subject to change.
Is your townread on pistachi0n based solely on her miller claim or on something more? Can you point to some other posts of hers that you liked?

Can you talk some about the reads you're having trouble with, saying what you like about us and what you don't like or what your reservations are that are holding you back from a more solid read? It's okay to be unsure; waffling isn't a real scumtell. :]

I've found that sometimes thinking out loud about a read can help me make up my mind or help me figure out what I need to do to get a stronger read.



...I spent literally all day reading 9 pages. At least i'm only 16 pages behind now. This game is dense. :|

I hope it goes quicker tomorrow.
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Post Post #1836 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:31 am

Post by Friendless Seniors »

Friendless Seniors wrote:I'm sure you've noticed a game where you're town and missed something, skimmed over some content, miss things ya? It happens to everyone (except plot).


point proven ;)
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Post Post #1837 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:39 am

Post by The Pied Piper »

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Post Post #1838 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:43 am

Post by Axelrod »

Life is meaningless and full of pain.

I have no interest in voting Mirhawk. Between FS and Ranger, I am not a huge fan of either, but I like Ranger a little better.

Vote: Friendless Seniors


I could still be persuaded to change this. I'll be back before deadline. I also think FS should go ahead and claim.
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Post Post #1839 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:45 am

Post by Friendless Seniors »

vote ranger. you can't get away with "I'm not a huge fan of either but I like ranger a little better"

why? for what reasons? have you read the game?
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Post Post #1840 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:46 am

Post by Spiffeh »

Axelrod wrote:Life is meaningless and full of pain.

I have no interest in voting Mirhawk. Between FS and Ranger, I am not a huge fan of either, but I like Ranger a little better.

Vote: Friendless Seniors


I could still be persuaded to change this. I'll be back before deadline. I also think FS should go ahead and claim.

Yeah this post fucking sucks
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Post Post #1841 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:47 am

Post by podoboq »

The Pied Piper wrote:
podoboq wrote:So I think Ranger is obvtown here, but even if she isn't, what does it honestly matter for today's lynch? We were probably going to lynch Mirhawk or FS anyway.

I suggest we proceed as normal. If today's lynch flips scum, what does that say about Ranger? If they flip town, we can reassess.

In case this is some super complicated bussing, I'd suggest FS as our lynch tonight since Ranger is voting Mirhawk. Plus, this way we can get beeboy on the wagon.

VOTE: FriendlessSeniors

If there's a flaw on this logic, someone please point it out to me.
If you think Ranger's town, then you think she's not bussing. If you think she's bussing, then you think that she's scum voting her partner, so you vote the person that she's not voting because?

podoboq wrote:I wasn't given pause by beeboy, but this is making me reconsider. I still think the best course of action is to continue as normal for the day, and reevaluate during the next day. One of Mirhawk or FS is almost definitely scum, and scum!Ranger would probably deflect onto the townie, so why not move forward with the person who wasn't her target in case it's a ruse?
Okay, this makes more sense but here's what you're considering as I understand it:

  • Ranger is town because effort and high resolution of catchup.
  • Ranger could be scum bussing.
  • Ranger could be scum trying to derail a wagon off a scum player onto a town player


This is true: Ranger is definitely [scum or town] and Ranger is definitely voting [scum or town]. But that doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know.

If you think the most logical option is that she's town, which I'm guessing you do because you started your earlier post with "Ranger is obvtown", then your vote means that you think she is town who is wrong about her reads. Why do you think this is the most likely of the four options?
So if Ranger is town, I think FS and Mirhawk are both equally good options. This is what I consider the most likely possibility.
If Ranger is scum, she is has narrowed her choices down to be the two highest scum reads of town (at the time). I think that this would be a play to get towncred. In this situation, let's assume that one of FS or Mirhawk are scum and the other is town. She would choose the push the town's wagon instead of the scum's wagon. So on the low chance that she's scum, lynch the person she ISN'T targeting, because in the case she's town, both options are equal anyway.

I don't think that Ranger is wrong about her reads, I just read Mirhawk differently. Either I'm wrong about my read on Mirhawk, or Ranger is scum. I think the former is more likely. I'm more confident in my townread on Ranger than my townread on Mirhawk, so if it came down to it, I would follow Ranger on this.


The Pied Piper wrote:
podoboq wrote:beeboy wanted reads on a few people, so I just decided I'd post a read on the whole town,

On a scale of 1-7 where 1 is obvscum and 7 is obvtown. X is a person (or hydra) who I basically have no read on either because I haven't paid enough attention to their walls, or I'm just completely torn.

Of note, I scumread prolonged inactivity, especially when paired with useless posts and prod dodges. Sorry 'bout you, Snarky. Also, hydras have been hard for me to get a read on.

Amihan - 7
pistachi0n - 7
beeboy - 6
SirCakez - 5
Tammy - 5
Axelrod - 5
Sakura Hana - 5
tictac* - 5
davesaz - 5
Mirhawk - 4
Spiffeh - 4
Ranger - 4
Skybird - 3
True Ogre - 3
Friendless Seniors (hiplop/Errantparabola) - 2
SnarkySnowman - 2
dramonic* - 1

The Pied Piper (Plotinus/nachomamma8) - ??
Cerberus v666 - ??
THE WRONG LYNCH (Malakittens/goodmorning) - ??

This was super on the cuff, and obviously, all subject to change.
Is your townread on pistachi0n based solely on her miller claim or on something more? Can you point to some other posts of hers that you liked?

Can you talk some about the reads you're having trouble with, saying what you like about us and what you don't like or what your reservations are that are holding you back from a more solid read? It's okay to be unsure; waffling isn't a real scumtell. :]

I've found that sometimes thinking out loud about a read can help me make up my mind or help me figure out what I need to do to get a stronger read.
Yeah, I'm townreading pistachi0n because of her (not countered) claim. Maybe that's the newb in me showing. I honestly haven't seen anything else form pistachi0n I'd consider indicative enough for me to read her, or maybe I missed something in skimming.

As for the people I can't read, this comes mostly from skimming on my part. I'm not reading everyone's walls in depth usually unless they're asking me questions. If I had to guess, I've liked you (PP) and TWL on the most part, and disliked Cerberus. I'm gaining more confidence in my read on Cerberus because of his attack on Ranger for switching between FS and Mirhawk.

I know that's not a complete answer, but it's the best I have at the moment. I'm expecting after n1 to have a lot more direction in ways to go about doing reads. In party games (which are most of my experience with mafia) we call this part of the game day 0, and people aren't expected to actually form reads of any kind. This part of playing the game is new to me, so I'm putting a lot of weight into concrete things (like pistachi0n's claim), and still learning how to get actual reads from more nuanced things.
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Post Post #1842 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:51 am

Post by Friendless Seniors »

axel is like 100% scum.

I think this latest development paints ranger scum pretty clearly, too. He rolefished, set up for a potential deadline bus.

Axel playing like newbiescum, left his partner caught in the dust
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Post Post #1843 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:56 am

Post by Axelrod »

Yeah, that's making me feel a lot better about the vote.
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Post Post #1844 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:56 am

Post by beeboy »

Wait wait wait, can someone break down to me why Seniors is scum.
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Post Post #1845 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 6:57 am

Post by beeboy »

Over Ranger or anyone else.
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Post Post #1846 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:01 am

Post by Spiffeh »

Axel you are scum
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Post Post #1847 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:01 am

Post by beeboy »

I WANT RANGER VOTES PEOPLE I AM THE TOWN LEADER BECAUSE I SAID SO SHEEP ME.
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Post Post #1848 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:01 am

Post by beeboy »

Although if Seniors ever flips scum I am hard pushing Spiffeh.
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Post Post #1849 (ISO) » Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:02 am

Post by beeboy »

He was dodging that wagon like the plague as soon as he realized his pressure started actually impacting the game.

Actually that is just scummy either way.
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