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Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:47 am
by NorwegianboyEE
I’m fine with just me/S_S
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:47 am
by Something_Smart
In post 1821, Iconeum wrote:the way i see it is that if I give you a third name now, scum!SS has 1 extra name to cross off the PoE. He knows he's dead anyway.
And having an extra conftown isn't worth all that much imo?
On the other hand, if you add a scum to the group of town!S_S and town!Norway, we win instantly.
So surely you can find a name that I wasn't going to pick as the daughter anyway?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:47 am
by Something_Smart
You are arguing that the information it gives scum outweighs the information it gives town.
That is saying that it isn't worth it.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:48 am
by Iconeum
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:49 am
by Iconeum
In post 1827, Something_Smart wrote:
You are arguing that the information it gives scum outweighs the information it gives town.
That is saying that it isn't worth it.
if i would think the investigation mechanic isn't worth it, i literally have a tool at my disposal to force the matter
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:51 am
by Something_Smart
You've decided on two investigations, and you're arguing that any further ones aren't worth it, because we have the best possible opportunity to get another investigation, and you aren't taking it.
Do you want me to go find my math post and repost it?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:53 am
by Iconeum
In post 1827, Something_Smart wrote:
You are arguing that the information it gives scum outweighs the information it gives town.
That is saying that it isn't worth it.
i'm saying that we need to find a balance in confirming town as that information is critical to a scum victory, not that we shouldn't be investigating at all?
the more conftown, the easier it gets for scum to guess the TD
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:53 am
by Something_Smart
What you are doing is you are giving up a large benefit to town to deny a small benefit to scum. And "large" and "small" are not vague concepts, they are actual numbers that I can calculate if you'd like. And even more you are in full control so subjectively you can choose the person least likely to be mistaken for the daughter, so the benefit to scum will be even LESS than the numbers say.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:54 am
by Something_Smart
In post 1831, Iconeum wrote:i'm saying that we need to find a balance in confirming town as that information is critical to a scum victory, not that we shouldn't be investigating at all?
Specifically you're arguing that that balance will have been hit as soon as Norway and I are investigated, or at least it seems like that's what you're saying.
How many more people after us two do you think we should investigate?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:55 am
by Iconeum
In post 1131, Something_Smart wrote:Scum do not benefit more than us.
Right now, assuming random executions and random guessing, we have a 21% chance of executing two scum in five tries, and scum have an 8% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 20%.
If we clear 5 townies, we would then have a 42% chance of executing two scum in five tries, while scum would have a 13% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 37%.
(I could calculate the numbers for other sizes but the point is the same.)
if everyone agrees that it's mathematically beneficial to include a third today, i won't oppose it
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:56 am
by Iconeum
In post 1832, Something_Smart wrote:What you are doing is you are giving up a large benefit to town to deny a small benefit to scum. And "large" and "small" are not vague concepts, they are actual numbers that I can calculate if you'd like. And even more you are in full control so subjectively you can choose the person least likely to be mistaken for the daughter, so the benefit to scum will be even LESS than the numbers say.
fair enough if I wait for others to comment on this? i won't oppose this if majority agrees
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:56 am
by NorwegianboyEE
We’ve got scum in either NS/Datisi.
And if we get scum in me/S_S then it’s basically ez win for town because only 2 scum need to die until D5 if i remember correctly. Or it was the last scum alive would guess the TD if their teammates die. One of those.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:57 am
by Something_Smart
That's fine. Thank you for listening.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:57 am
by Something_Smart
In post 1836, NorwegianboyEE wrote:We’ve got scum in either NS/Datisi.
And if we get scum in me/S_S then it’s basically ez win for town because only 2 scum need to die until D5 if i remember correctly. Or it was the last scum alive would guess the TD if their teammates die. One of those.
That's the idea, and it remains ez win if we add a third person to the pool today. Are you okay with that?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:58 am
by Iconeum
In post 1836, NorwegianboyEE wrote:We’ve got scum in either NS/Datisi.
And if we get scum in me/S_S then it’s basically ez win for town because only 2 scum need to die until D5 if i remember correctly. Or it was the last scum alive would guess the TD if their teammates die. One of those.
yes but the issue rises if both you/SS are town
and i get that we absolutely need to hit Tea for maximum effect with this investigation
because after all, if we don't manage to lynch 2 scum fast enough they also win
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:59 am
by Iconeum
would like smarter people then me to start commenting on this
that would be almost everybody
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:04 am
by Datisi
yes, which is why adding a third person lowers the chance of getting an innoTea
fresh people that were spewed not!TD and still have ~odds of being scum, or at least for removing paranoia
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:50 am
by Titus
In post 1840, Iconeum wrote:would like smarter people then me to start commenting on this
that would be almost everybody
I still would like help on my VCA. Can you please reconsider Umlaut and NK? Umlaut I know is unpopular but a good chunk of the game has requested NK.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:20 am
by notscience
I’m still here just nothing to say.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:29 am
by NorwegianboyEE
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:39 am
by Radical Rat
I agree that NK should be added.
If he's Town, he already can't be the daughter since he would have known Menalque's joke claim was a joke.
If he's Scum, we're all gonna look REAL stupid at the end after not investigating or executing him after a fakeclaim like that.
Scum gains nothing extra from including him, but Town does.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:46 am
by Not Known 15
Ship:Wheat
Inspect:Wheat
It is time for Something Smart to come over and join Wheat(Or get lynched)
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:11 am
by Something_Smart
I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.
I guess maybe you volunteering would mean that you have to be? I mean ngl I thought Icon was softing you as daughter but like if you're the daughter this is now beyond salvageable.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:17 am
by Not Known 15
In post 1847, Something_Smart wrote:I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.
I guess maybe you volunteering would mean that you have to be? I mean ngl I thought Icon was softing you as daughter but like if you're the daughter this is now beyond salvageable.
I think Iconeum wanted to make me a fake daughter but that`s just not happening. I looked at the situation and there is just no way that scum will fall for that attempted trick, whilst it continues to divert the attention of the town because there are enough people wanting me to be included, wasting their energy and time on that.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:42 am
by NorwegianboyEE
