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Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:14 am
by The Pied Piper
↑ podoboq wrote:So if Ranger is town, I think FS and Mirhawk are both equally good options. This is what I consider the most likely possibility.
If Ranger is scum, she is has narrowed her choices down to be the two highest scum reads of town (at the time). I think that this would be a play to get towncred. In this situation, let's assume that one of FS or Mirhawk are scum and the other is town. She would choose the push the town's wagon instead of the scum's wagon. So on the low chance that she's scum, lynch the person she ISN'T targeting, because in the case she's town, both options are equal anyway.
I don't think that Ranger is wrong about her reads, I just read Mirhawk differently. Either I'm wrong about my read on Mirhawk, or Ranger is scum. I think the former is more likely. I'm more confident in my townread on Ranger than my townread on Mirhawk, so if it came down to it, I would follow Ranger on this.
Ok, this does make more sense taking into account your own separate reads on FS and Mirhawk. You think Ranger is probably town, but if she's scum then it's more likely that she's voting town, and you happen to have a stronger scumread on the person that she's not voting, so it fits together.
podoboq wrote: ↑ The Pied Piper wrote:Is your townread on pistachi0n based solely on her miller claim or on something more? Can you point to some other posts of hers that you liked?
Can you talk some about the reads you're having trouble with, saying what you like about us and what you don't like or what your reservations are that are holding you back from a more solid read? It's okay to be unsure; waffling isn't a real scumtell.
I've found that sometimes thinking out loud about a read can help me make up my mind or help me figure out what I need to do to get a stronger read.
Yeah, I'm townreading pistachi0n because of her (not countered) claim. Maybe that's the newb in me showing. I honestly haven't seen anything else form pistachi0n I'd consider indicative enough for me to read her, or maybe I missed something in skimming.
As for the people I can't read, this comes mostly from skimming on my part. I'm not reading everyone's walls in depth usually unless they're asking me questions. If I had to guess, I've liked you (PP) and TWL on the most part, and disliked Cerberus. I'm gaining more confidence in my read on Cerberus because of his attack on Ranger for switching between FS and Mirhawk.
I know that's not a complete answer, but it's the best I have at the moment. I'm expecting after n1 to have a lot more direction in ways to go about doing reads. In party games (which are most of my experience with mafia) we call this part of the game day 0, and people aren't expected to actually form reads of any kind. This part of playing the game is new to me, so I'm putting a lot of weight into concrete things (like pistachi0n's claim), and still learning how to get actual reads from more nuanced things.
I think it's okay to townread her for the claim on day 1, or to have her in the pile of things to be dealt with later. I've seen uncounterclaimed millers of both alignments before, but it's not something we need to resolve right now.
Generally if I'm townreading somebody for one reason I like to see if I can approach that read in a few other ways too. If I like one or two things about them and the rest is null then that's okay but the more reasons I have to like a person, the happier I am.
Thanks for the explanation of the rest. Day 1 takes practice. I think you're right that things will make more sense on day 2. 21 people is also a lot to keep track of; it's okay to focus in on a smaller group of players, too. I find in larges a lot of people just focus in on a handful of people at a time because it's too much to take in at once. As long as everybody doesn't pick the same handful, it's fine.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:15 am
by The Pied Piper
Axel, on your homesite, is it customary to claim at L-3?
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 7:33 am
by davesaz
I like the approach to trying to get Snarky to give reads in
1832 and the detailed response to my earlier responses in
1833.
I think that's enough to townread Pied Piper, at least for now. (TBH, I don't remember if I had a read on them, and this is keeping in mind that it would be easy for someone who is not under pressure to get town points this way)
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:31 am
by pistachi0n
↑ beeboy wrote:Wait wait wait, can someone break down to me why Seniors is scum.
Is this a serious question? I know you skipped wagons, but you're the one who was originally pushing hard for a seniors lynch.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 8:46 am
by Sakura Hana
So, why is Ranger scum?
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:05 am
by SirCakez
↑ The Pied Piper wrote:Were Ranger's reads fantastic primarily because they agreed with yours? What read of hers did you find most surprising?
Yes, they were very very similar to mine which I liked because mirroring a town mindset. Nothing was especially surprising about it.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:07 am
by SirCakez
↑ Skybird wrote: ↑ SirCakez wrote:I'll do the Ranger ISO and town case as soon as I get home, sorry for flaking on that.
I'm not as comfortable with a Seniors lynch anymore. I'd really prefer Mirhawk.
What has changed your read on Seniors?
I like how they are actually interacting with me, a main accuser of theirs, and trying to show how the case I made was wrong while Mirhawk just went "Cakez is obvscum his case on me sucks!".
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:08 am
by SirCakez
Going to go indepth on Ranger in a bit after I catch up in some other games
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:33 am
by Mirhawk
I actually had a townread on you at one point. Now every time you post I cringe.
I know you know why Rangers being scumread because you've commented on it before.
Your posts get shorter and have less substance the longer the game goes on, are you even reading the game?
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:37 am
by Mirhawk
↑ SirCakez wrote:I like how they are actually interacting with me, a main accuser of theirs, and trying to show how the case I made was wrong while Mirhawk just went "Cakez is obvscum his case on me sucks!".
If someone who's not you want to know why its so bad I'd be more willing to entertain this, but would I waste my time talking to you about it.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:44 am
by Mirhawk
OMG grammar.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 9:55 am
by Mirhawk
↑ The Pied Piper wrote:Are you scumreading Pistachi0n for more than miller claim?
The miller claim isn't even a part of my scumread.
I find her opportunistic in general.
I think some of the questions she asked were only asked so she didn't have to outright admit that she was prod dodging.
She defended both Swordworth and Ranger. Which I admit is based really on Rangers alignment, but still.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:05 am
by Sakura Hana
↑ Mirhawk wrote:I know you know why Rangers being scumread because you've commented on it before.
I know why YOU think she's scum, but when i made that post a lot of ppl were townreading her from what i remember so im wondering what changed.
↑ Mirhawk wrote:are you even reading the game?
Nope i was busy all weekend. I've skimmed some of the last couple pages.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:12 am
by THE WRONG WAGON
Ploti hydra is prob town~
I'm liking both nacho and ploti so <3.
Also ploti I know that Tammy is busy, but it wasn't her absent that I was calling out, but the baseless read by ranger on a few posts that didn't even feel like alignment indicative.
Also Tammy we got off on the wrong foot, can we shake paws and start this over again. I'm sorry for getting defensive and I'll try to control it.
-M
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:14 am
by beeboy
↑ pistachi0n wrote: ↑ beeboy wrote:Wait wait wait, can someone break down to me why Seniors is scum.
Is this a serious question? I know you skipped wagons, but you're the one who was originally pushing hard for a seniors lynch.
Yes break down to me seniors > ranger plz.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:27 am
by Friendless Seniors
hey nacho can u vote ranger plz n thx
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:27 am
by Spiffeh
TWL vote for Ranger please
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:29 am
by Sakura Hana
3 more ppl asking for votes on Ranger and i dont even understand why...
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:30 am
by SirCakez
Doing Ranger thing now
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:31 am
by Spiffeh
Because she's scum
ISO me to find all my reasons why in a spoiler
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:31 am
by Friendless Seniors
sakura are you reading the game? like are you caught up? there is tons of info available for ranger scum
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:36 am
by SirCakez
This is really frustrating because I think the Ranger wagon is all town except Mirhawk and maybe Seniors, but I'm just legit not seeing the case for Ranger :/
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:37 am
by Sakura Hana
Sorry i've been spending way too much time playing Tree of Savior
Well anyway, fine.
VOTE: Ranger
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:48 am
by SirCakez
Why I think Ranger is town
-First off gut. Obviously can't explain that.
-Meta. This isn't super fresh but Ranger's catchup here very much reminded me of Open 623 where she was town. I brought up Mafiaception earlier as well. That game was very noticeably different from her usual town games. She was much less into the game, made weak pushes, and was basically flopping around all game. I'm not seeing that here.
-Liked the reads progression. Her reads were very very very similar to mine as she was catching up with a few exceptions (TWL and Spiff scum, Beeboy town) (now think Beeboy is town but was scumreading him earlier) and that's a good tell for me because it's mirroring my thoughts which were from a town perspective.
1280 is a fantastic example. Scumreads on Tictac, Mirhawk, Seniors, Ogre, nearly a match of my scumpool earlier. Tammy, Ami, PP, Cerb all up in town pile as well.
This is where the initial "Ranger's reads are fantastic" comment came from.
1316 concludes the reads catchup and it just all feels legit to me.
Mirhawk being a hard Ranger pusher but being so hesitant to join that wagon also gives me pause.
1514 is an example of a post which feels like a genuine thought process. I'm a sucker for walls but things like pointing out more recent scum games for me, explaining the Sakura townread, the defense of the replace out in Open 627 all feel legit.
The dedication to Mirhawk and Seniors feels like my play all game until very recently when I started getting some town vibes from Seniors.
The only thing I'm finding questionable here is the big stance against attempting a tictac wagon which I found odd but that's not enough for a scumread.
So yea there it is.
Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:50 am
by Friendless Seniors
shes exactly like mafiaception
I would know
I caught her