Mafiascum.net

In other words strategically, and gut-wise, and in scumhunting a newbie can be better than an experienced player. But being right in those things doesn't always mean you win games.

Experienced players are more successful at winning games even if they are wrong more.

sure... but i think you're missing the point because at no point have i said i know better because i've played more games so *shrug*

is your scum read on me based entirely on the eddie thing or do you have individual reasons for thinking i'm scum?

oh and can you talk about your read on REAL MAN and fitz without reference eddie?

@NSG

what was the reason you were so certain kokichi was town early? and is that still the reason you're town-reading him or is there something else to that read?

First let me just explain real quick I didn't mean anything about you personally with the comments.
It's just that we're still in the game and I've read your arguments and think you're wrong and I'm right. Even when it comes to my approach. I understand the dangers of assumptions but I think some of the things you said aren't applicable here.
After the game I'd be more inclined to trust your views over mine because you are more experienced and after the game I'd know for sure they were genuine. If I disagree I will disagree but I won't debate it. The beauty of mafia comes from the fact that there different ways to approach the game and nobody can for sure say which is best. It depends on the player's style and strengths.

My scumread on you is based on some day 1 stuff and the eddie thing and frankly that you are playing devil's advocate for every point I make. At some point I have to start making decisions based on certain reads and assumptions. If I am wrong about the assumptions it doesn't mean I am wrong about how I act upon them. Same thing with a math problem. If you get some calculation wrong at the beginning your answer will be off at the end but you might have used the correct method/logic.

Some of the day 1 stuff: the aggressive push for a g2 lynch without any swapping. The overly sarcastic comments when people scumread you or a particular post of yours. Your rare use of subjective arguments and opinion and reliance on probability and objectively optimal moves etc. Like I explain earlier, it isn't that these kind of arguments are scummy by themselves, but when someone's ISO is dominated by them it looks sketchy. Why are they not taking a chance with some of their reads? It seemed to me like if you were more trusting of your reads you'd make different arguments but you were content with things that are mechanical and numerical rather than making reasonable conclusions based on your reads.

Day 2 the eddie stuff is a big part of it.


Fitz I've townread since he started posting more. He started the game a little inactive but then he posted a little more and the posts seem innocent enough and town motivated. Not the most proactive and helpful player around but didn't read anything that seemed anti-town.

I don't like RMOJ's posts. I suspect I'm just not comfortable townreading this particular style of playing. I did suspect throughout day 1 that the real man and honor stuff was all a strategy to avoid talking about anything real and to look like a playful innocent townie.

But then eddie used his move. And now I can't townread it. And if I conclude that eddie is scum it doesn't make a lot of sense for me to vote for g3 regardless of what I think of RMOJ. It also means eddie put rmoj in group 3 with me and fitz and I have to account for that.
Can RMOJ and eddie be scum together? Yes in theory but then if he moved koki to group 3, it makes it more likely that wisdom is scum and that goes against my most confident townread.

Problem is with his behavior after eddie switched I am now doubting even that read. So I'm just really confused now. If I am wrong it means that scum is not following any strategy at all but instead just sort of splitting themselves up in an even and somewhat safe arrangement and just hoping they don't lose.

Like if all the top posters are town then scum are doing no pushing at all. They are relying on blind luck and town implosion. And in a regular game that could work but in partition mafia scum have a lot power because they define who dies with whom. It doesn't make sense to me for them to be passive in this game.

There's also the confirmed guilty in koki/wisdom.
See whichever one of them is the scum they intentionally out each of us 3 in a separate group. Wis/koki/me. From wisdom's pov group 3 should now be a wet dream if he is scum. If eddie and you are town he doesn't care that I want to lynch g2. Why would he need to change his perspective on eddie? And why isn't he pushing for group 3 with more conviction?


Finally, and I admit this one is the weakest argument, but koki's towngame tends to have more roleplay, more jokes about being scum, much more public confidence in reads, and generally posts more than what I've seen so far in this game.

For the record I'm not sure about nsg. Having difficulty settling on a read as I've flip flopped but other people seem scummier so I've more or less treated her as a townread by default or at least as a "will sort later".

bu the scumteam is nsg/kokichi/rmoj

when you realize eddie can be town youll see it

In post 1701, BuJaber wrote:You know nsg/koki/RMOJ would be pretty strong here.

I have no problem with this team if eddie is town as you can see this was one of my predictions at the beginning of the day.

But it requires me to townread eddie.
Maybe his future posts could change my mind but for now I don't see it.
So if you're right hopefully town follows you. And if I'm right hopefully they follow me.

Either way your team allows you to vote for g1 so we don't have to lynch g3 yet.

yep
though technically g3 is safe too with this team as it contains two scum
But i feel like nsg is going to be scum either way so g1 is the best

It comes down to this really.. if we lynch g2 and eddie flips scum we'll win. Only a handful of potential teammates for him.

If we lynch g1 and nsg flips scum and you flip town koki is conf scum. So we can easily win after that too.

If we lynch wrong we lose.

Please never move your vote from g1 to g3 though. If you are still voting for g1 and it reaches L-1 maybe even L-2 you would confirm yourself as town.

In post 1858, BuJaber wrote:if we lynch g2 and eddie flips scum we'll win. Only a handful of potential teammates for him.

And thats why scum eddie doesnt do it
If they wanted kokichi to be hard to lynch, theyd make the groupings so without using his move

In post 1859, Wisdom wrote:

In post 1858, BuJaber wrote:if we lynch g2 and eddie flips scum we'll win. Only a handful of potential teammates for him.

And thats why scum eddie doesnt do it
If they wanted kokichi to be hard to lynch, theyd make the groupings so without using his move

I know you might be right, I do.
But the point is if eddie is scum he would need to use his power to make you townread him.
Also if they made it so at the start of the day it would be obvious that koki is scum.
Like if koki is town they would want him dead.
If he is scum they wouldn't want to be easy to lynch him. Because exposing him clears me and you.

So if he's town they wouldn't put him in a big group.
So if they put him in a big group it makes him look bad.

Buj...I don't think Eddie is scum.
I think he screwed up using his move on Koki.
There's no way G3 is a consideration imo as unless it has 2 or more scum....town lose. At best I think rmoj could be scum. Or slimmer Koki.
I see no way in bleep that scum created a group with 2+ scum in it today.
If Eddie was scum his lack of mention towards G1 is very suspect.
If he's town his opinion is no better than any other townie and tarnished imo by the koki move to g3.
I'm still leaning group 1 for Wisdom's sake though his self vote has me wanting to look nsg over closer.

In post 1861, havingfitz wrote:I see no way in bleep that scum created a group with 2+ scum in it today.

kokichi wasnt in g3 in the groups scum made though

In post 1862, Wisdom wrote:

In post 1861, havingfitz wrote:I see no way in bleep that scum created a group with 2+ scum in it today.

kokichi wasnt in g3 in the groups scum made though

I'm not talking about the post Koki move groups.

In post 1844, BuJaber wrote:Still no explanation for wisdom buddying me

In post 1722, havingfitz wrote:@BuJaber...do you seriously not know what Wisdom gains from buddying/white knighting you? For starters...what's your read on Wisdom and is it in part based on his read of you? That's the only reason I can see you giving in fact for TRing him. iirc.

you were talking about why you're not considering voting g3

In post 1865, Wisdom wrote:you were talking about why you're not considering voting g3

I'm not sure what you're getting at? I explained why I think G3 isn't an option.

I realize Koki has moved groups. My G3 opinion is the same...stronger with him in G3 as it still allows scum to sacrifice one member and still win.

When the groups were 2-3-3 losing 1 scum would not equal a win.

the way i see it
Scum go 1:1:1
They put nsg with me - they know I won't let a lynch on myself and a townread to happen, so their most townread member is safe
They put Kokichi with the two most likely to be suspected due to claims - this is a lynch they're fine with because 2 townies for 1 scum
They put RMOJ with fitz who is a scumread for many and bu that is the other possibly guilty - another lynch they're fine with for the same reason

Both of these lynches would lead to 5p with 2 scum alive

In post 1834, BuJaber wrote:Wisdom doesn't make sense as scum unless he has another PR partner. So if you townread eddie/koki/muffin you have to townread wisdom.

In post 1835, BuJaber wrote:No wait that doesn't make sense..

Slip?

Lynch me then you won anyway you don't have to rub it in.

I'm not even mad.. it was a brilliant strategy and nice move by eddie.

it wasnt, dude, stop it
youve been reasonable so far, why are you so stuck on this now

I don't participate in a lynch unless I believe in it.
Sorry if it seems I'm being unreasonable but only person who has a chance at changing my mind is eddie himself. I'm giving around 5% chance of him being town.

48 hours into day 2 and it's been mainly a 3 way conversation..let's let others pitch in.

~