In post 1847, Something_Smart wrote:I'm waiting until it's been decided if there will be a third person and if so, who they will be.
It's you.
You and I are the first two.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:52 am
by NorwegianboyEE
NK15 is also shipping wheat.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 7:55 am
by Something_Smart
But not with Icon's blessing.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 8:57 am
by Radical Rat
Don't need Icon's blessing. The only reason it's "picking" the inspections is so the TD doesn't get hit by one. That's already settled, so no need for you to stall.
scum. Doesnt want to get a second guiltea and tries to escape it.
...if S_S is scum why would he want you, who are town, to be off the wheat shipment, narrowing the scum pool further? How does this escape anything from his perspective?
Right now, assuming random executions and random guessing, we have a 21% chance of executing two scum in five tries, and scum have an 8% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 20%.
If we clear 5 townies, we would then have a 42% chance of executing two scum in five tries, while scum would have a 13% chance of guessing the daughter. That gives us an EV of 37%.
(I could calculate the numbers for other sizes but the point is the same.)
if everyone agrees that it's mathematically beneficial to include a third today, i won't oppose it
I think we should add a third name, even if it's not Umlaut. NK15 has volunteered to be the third name. EE, NK15, S_S.
That's my understanding anyway.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:39 pm
by GuiltyLion
I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with
It is time for Something Smart to come over and join Wheat(Or get lynched)
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 3:50 pm
by Umlaut
In post 1859, GuiltyLion wrote:I'm swayed by the 3 pool > 2 pool argument from a math perspective and now that NK15 has openly claimed NotTD then we may as well throw him in the pool. Umlaut's 1856 again strikes me as someone who is more concerned with scoring points over logical/mechanics arguments instead of actually evaluating alignments, he's right about the flaws in NK15's reasoning but he's also at the same time ignoring the fact that there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with
Despite the tone, that was an actual question I was asking NK15 and was (and am) hoping for an answer to. Maybe that answer is just "derp, I wasn't thinking" but maybe there is some actual reasoning there and I was hoping to see what it was.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 4:01 pm
by GuiltyLion
I don't wanna poison the well for your question by pressing you further on that front but I may be interested in revisiting this line of conversation if/when NK15 answers.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 5:03 pm
by Titus
Alisae, talk to me. What are your thoughts here? Why are you still voting moment?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:16 pm
by Iconeum
i don't remember asking for NK being inspected
so eh
yeah we're not inspecting NK
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:26 pm
by Iconeum
In post 1859, GuiltyLion wrote:there's really no scum!agenda in NK15 volunteering himself to be in the pool to begin with
so what's the argument about putting him the pool again? because the main thing is catching a guilTea, not clearing town let alone paranoia
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:28 pm
by Iconeum
town shouldn't be volunteering to be in the pool imo
it decreases the chance of catching scum
right NK?
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:33 pm
by GuiltyLion
It's mostly that a 3 person pool is no worse than a 2 person pool from the perspective of getting a guilty, bc we can use our remaining investigations and executions in such a way that we guarantee 2 scum eliminated by EOD5.
The downside is we might clear more townies as not!TD with an inno result, but if someone's already spewed themselves not-TD then this downside is negated.
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:34 pm
by Iconeum
eh you know what fuck it
i have no clue what this game is anymore
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:35 pm
by Iconeum
NK will be inspected
i've fucking warned you guys about taking my day 1 picks into account
but if NK is insisting about being inspected himself he can fucking have it
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:35 pm
by Iconeum
In post 1868, GuiltyLion wrote:It's mostly that a 3 person pool is no worse than a 2 person pool from the perspective of getting a guilty, bc we can use our remaining investigations and executions in such a way that we guarantee 2 scum eliminated by EOD5.
The downside is we might clear more townies as not!TD with an inno result, but if someone's already spewed themselves not-TD then this downside is negated.
not arguing about 3 or 2, SS was pretty convincing about that yesterday
it's about who would be number 3
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:36 pm
by username
How the fuck did we catch scum out of three people on night one and we still clearly have no idea what the fuck we're doing
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:38 pm
by Iconeum
In post 1872, username wrote:How the fuck did we catch scum out of three people on night one and we still clearly have no idea what the fuck we're doing
we know what we are doing
we are inspecting someone everyone thinks is town, but did a scummy thing so hE MusT bE inSpeCteD
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2020 6:39 pm
by Iconeum
everyone agrees we want to hit scum with the next 3, so everyone agrees that NK should be included despite most people believing NK is probably town anyway
makes perfect sense right?
not to mention NK is asking for this himself which is?????????????????????
but im fucking done fighting this, he can be inspected if that is his grand desire