i really just cant force myself to look at that D1 and say she flips scum given the fact she had the option of marci that was super easy to sustain given her previous statements. in all honesty im circling back to your point and defaulting to "N_M is town" which isnt helpful,,, so could i bug you for an explanation cos i feel like im missing smth sorry :/
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:50 pm
by Dwlee99
I've seen scum do that sort of hard bus before. Look at Yggdrasil for instance. LLD suddenly hard bussed Anya when the other wagon was town.
Now that's just to say it's possible. If the mafia are somehow aware that the game is low-investigative power, doing a bus like this for towncred could be extremely helpful.
And that also isn't to say that NM!scum implies Kyo!scum, but that I think the possibility of Kyo!scum goes up if NM is because of her implicit defense of him here. If you'll notice, Kyo began by pushing me and NM as a team. But Kyo never really mentioned NM in this argument, and sort of took it for granted that he would flip red. That is beneficial for two reasons if NM and her are buddies: if she can mislim me today, then tomorrow there is less credibility for a NM flip because it's sort of policy at this point, the team theory of me and NM fell through, and people don't like policy eliminating in MELO.
On the other hand, if NM flips red today, Kyo can point to her partner theory to get me flipped tomorrow and put her in MELO.
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 5:53 pm
by ManateeDude
ty that makes a lot more sense!! i will sleep on it and revisit what u said tmrw but for now im happy placing a metaphorical vote on N_M
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 6:02 pm
by Dwlee99
Also just wanted to say that part of her scumread seemed to be sort of based on NM!scum (this is just from memory but I remember her saying she doesn't think I'm teamed with other people) but her priority is flipping me, rather than the slot she also thinks is evil that should help determine my alignment.
In post 1352, Dwlee99 wrote:If there is a vigilante or any town killing role I put the odds that "babysitter" is scum north of 80%, regardless of Titus' scummy day play.
Sorry Salsa but I always vote self-voters, including myself
Thanks for the scum claim, who are you trying to save?
Btw, don't remember if I say this already but I don’t buy your
I can read
geraintm
read, it’s sounded TMI. And at that point, if you could really read them correctly (while they were not active that much iirr), then you
should
read me properly too, because you were the mod in one of my scum games and you played with town!me in several game as both alignment. Yes, I change my play style recently but why scum!me will play like this, what benefit I'm having rn?
TL;DR you're scum!
UNVOTE: Salsabil Faria
VOTE: Not_Mafia
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:24 pm
by Not_Mafia
I always vote self voters
Posted: Mon Aug 02, 2021 11:51 pm
by geraintm
VOTE: geraintm
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:05 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1851, Dwlee99 wrote:I've seen scum do that sort of hard bus before. Look at Yggdrasil for instance. LLD suddenly hard bussed Anya when the other wagon was town.
Now that's just to say it's possible. If the mafia are somehow aware that the game is low-investigative power, doing a bus like this for towncred could be extremely helpful.
And that also isn't to say that NM!scum implies Kyo!scum, but that I think the possibility of Kyo!scum goes up if NM is because of her implicit defense of him here. If you'll notice, Kyo began by pushing me and NM as a team. But Kyo never really mentioned NM in this argument, and sort of took it for granted that he would flip red. That is beneficial for two reasons if NM and her are buddies: if she can mislim me today, then tomorrow there is less credibility for a NM flip because it's sort of policy at this point, the team theory of me and NM fell through, and people don't like policy eliminating in MELO.
On the other hand, if NM flips red today, Kyo can point to her partner theory to get me flipped tomorrow and put her in MELO.
I think you and Salsa are more likely because there is apparently no killing role. I think the idea that scum!you is contingent on scum!N_M comes from the post I thought you were rolefishing for a vigilante in, followed by the few shortly thereafter, but individually Salsa has done more than N_M that appears scummy, and she appears to be distancing with you as soon as the theory comes out that she and Marci could be teamed.
To be clear Dwlee is an
individual
scumread, N_M being scum is contingent on the existence of a killing role, and the rolefishing by Dwlee is something I saw that points toward them being teamed, but it is secondary to Dwlee's ISO. I am also now individually townreading Marcistar once again, so my entire POE is in Dwlee, Salsabil, and N_M. I think Dwlee on his own is scummy, that he and Marcistar cannot be teamed (further reinforcing my Marci TR on a scum dwlee flip), and that Salsa is distancing from Dwlee, which is not contingent on a killing role that it seems possible does not exist.
In the end, if we eliminate N_M today and he is town, if things go my way I think we are still likely to win because I am feeling confident about Dwlee, Salsa being the last 2 scum. We can mislim today and still eliminate them back to back.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:37 am
by Dwlee99
Asking a vigilante to shoot someone isn't role fishing.
At this point there’s so much posting I kinda just wanna just the night to catch up with it.
Does anyone have anything brief they wanna say or any reason why NM should not be the elim?
1. We still have 3 days to deadline
2. N_M's play is not scum-indicative. He is a policy elimination and there is no reason to policy when there exists the following alternatives:
a. Dwlee has been avoidant of questioning and is displaying inconsistencies around their handling of DGB. They have not been solving in a transparently town way, and it is easy to see the difference if you ISO Dwlee here and compare it to a towngame of his. Dwlee did not provide good reasoning to avoid eliminating DGB, and it is clear that they did not read my DGB's ISO through the lens of my case. At the time they ignored my case on DGB, he had me and DGB in his #2 and #3 townreads, but did not consider that he may be wrong on one of us at all. If he had considered it, he would have examined my case to see if it was accurate, but instead he ignored it, read DGB's ISO, and says (paraphrased) "I would only scumread them from meta, but meta is bad, and I don't want to vote them in case they are trying a new playstyle" He goes on to say that around post 260 DGB starts solving, and the solving that is in DGB's ISO is definitely not anything to hang a townread on DGB over. He has weak reasoning to TR DGB, and weak reasoning to not vote it. He also says that him wanting to eliminate N_M is because his POE is Salsabil, Marcistar, and N_M, but Salsabil and Marcistar are not teamed, so that only leaves N_M. When I ask why they are not teamed, he can only point to "vibes" which is again weak/no reasoning. I am also convinced that the usage of "divorced from" for the first time in his site-wide ego is indicative of scum searching for a powerful word to push home an exaggerated deception. He took what I said and bent it ever so slightly so he could interpret it as something else and represented it as such, then said that <that misrepresentation of my point> is divorced from <his original argument>.
b. Salsabil was not self-voting before DGB gained traction, but she began to self-vote as soon as it's wagon took off, with a huge ATE. Today they are again self-voting with ATE, probably so when N_M flips town her D1 play will look less suspicious. Salsabil has been distancing from Dwlee toDay since the moment she and Marcistar were considered a team. She comes in, says Marci and Dwlee are her scumreads, and votes Dwlee. She has to know, as town or scum, that this makes it look obviously like she is partnered with Marcistar. If she were town she would not want to give credence to the prevailing theory, and if she is scum, voting Dwlee there is an easy way to distance since town is already thinking Salsabil and Marcistar are the team. It makes Marci look bad on a Salsabil flip.
3. Math you say you are brutally efficient town. Who of the 4 candidates for elimination will provide the most useful flip for VCA? Certainly not N_M who has self-voted and not voted all game up until very recently toDay. If anything, you eliminating N_M today is contradictory to what you claim to be. Dwlee has actually used his vote in this game and shifted it around various wagons throughout D1.
4. There are actually only a few new pages of posting, and we still have 3 days, and Nights are only 2 days long. You wanting the night to catch up is inconsistent with what you said on D2. You said you asked for the Night 1 phase to be full length (not a quick night) so you could make sense of the voting patterns, but you could not, which indicated a deep wolf. If anything, you're looking to rush the day to an end now that I am building a case on Dwlee. N_M is an easy end of day compromise we're all happy with. There's no reason to end now when we have time to build actual cases and discuss them, when it is guaranteed we will be able to eliminate N_M before deadline.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:38 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1859, Dwlee99 wrote:Asking a vigilante to shoot someone isn't role fishing.
it is in the context of a game where a scum!doctor exists.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:38 am
by Dwlee99
Your theory makes no sense because even if I was evil and we had a protecting role, I would never think there was a vigilante AND a babysitter. I thought Titus' play was scummy, and she could have been a scum babysitter. I thought that if there was a vigilante it would make sense for there to be a scum babysitter, because it isn't a town-only role.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:55 am
by Dwlee99
There are no inconsistencies with how I handled DGB. No, I didn't read their ISO with your specific post in mind. I don't even know if anyone did that. I gave its ISO a skin, and came away with more to like than I felt with Roden or Titus. Yea, the solving there isn't some amazing towniness. I never said it was. It was just better than I felt about other slots in the game, and you going from "DGB's ISO was just as empty as Titus' " to "Well DGB's solviness could be faked" is exactly the BS I called out earlier. This kind of argumentative style / reading style whatever you want to call it should lock scum because you aren't trying to sort me, you're forcing a narrative. But apparently it's not cause grumble grumble chaos.
Yes, I have vibes that Marci and Salsa aren't teamed. I'm not a hard logic player, I get gut feelings and sometimes I even have a dream that I remember only as "these people are evil." If I wanted to fake a reason to think they aren't teamed, I would. I just think vibes though.
And you think I'm evil for using a new word. I think I have about ten completed games on site since becoming an adult. I have not used my whole vocabulary. (Bet I've never used the word vocabulary in a game either)
I can't comment on Salsa's actions, and I think using that to scumread me with pre-flip associatives is atrocious.
Killing someone for VCA is awful play as well. I'm not informed of who is evil, my vote patterns will probably be as bad or worse than random.
Your defense here of NM is awful as well. That slot needs to go. He is literally doing nothing and I'm not letting him get to MELO.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:15 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
In post 1863, Dwlee99 wrote:I can't comment on Salsa's actions, and I think using that to scumread me with pre-flip associatives is atrocious.
You are literally not reading my posts
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:17 am
by Dwlee99
That whole post is a scum case on me, is it not?
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:18 am
by Dwlee99
Your whole point about Salsa was that she looked like she was distancing from me.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:28 am
by ssbm_Kyouko
No, that whole post is an appeal to Math not to eliminate N_M for bad reasons before the Day ends. We can eliminate him at deadline if we have to, but cutting the day short is giving scum refuge to wait out the day without contributing anything we can use to read them later. Even if N_M is scum, we still have to catch his partner.
2.a. is a case on you. 2.b. is a case on Salsa, and part of my read on Salsa is a pre-flip associative with scum!You,
not
the other way around. The main reason Salsa is scum is her self-voting and ATE in context with the DGB wagon as well as her self-voting and ATE today. I see those as weaker reasons for her to be scum than the reasons posted in 2.a. about you.
At this point there’s so much posting I kinda just wanna just the night to catch up with it.
Does anyone have anything brief they wanna say or any reason why NM should not be the elim?
1. We still have 3 days to deadline
2. N_M's play is not scum-indicative. He is a policy elimination and there is no reason to policy when there exists the following alternatives:
a. Dwlee has been avoidant of questioning and is displaying inconsistencies around their handling of DGB. They have not been solving in a transparently town way, and it is easy to see the difference if you ISO Dwlee here and compare it to a towngame of his. Dwlee did not provide good reasoning to avoid eliminating DGB, and it is clear that they did not read my DGB's ISO through the lens of my case. At the time they ignored my case on DGB, he had me and DGB in his #2 and #3 townreads, but did not consider that he may be wrong on one of us at all. If he had considered it, he would have examined my case to see if it was accurate, but instead he ignored it, read DGB's ISO, and says (paraphrased) "I would only scumread them from meta, but meta is bad, and I don't want to vote them in case they are trying a new playstyle" He goes on to say that around post 260 DGB starts solving, and the solving that is in DGB's ISO is definitely not anything to hang a townread on DGB over. He has weak reasoning to TR DGB, and weak reasoning to not vote it. He also says that him wanting to eliminate N_M is because his POE is Salsabil, Marcistar, and N_M, but Salsabil and Marcistar are not teamed, so that only leaves N_M. When I ask why they are not teamed, he can only point to "vibes" which is again weak/no reasoning. I am also convinced that the usage of "divorced from" for the first time in his site-wide ego is indicative of scum searching for a powerful word to push home an exaggerated deception. He took what I said and bent it ever so slightly so he could interpret it as something else and represented it as such, then said that <that misrepresentation of my point> is divorced from <his original argument>.
b. Salsabil was not self-voting before DGB gained traction, but she began to self-vote as soon as it's wagon took off, with a huge ATE. Today they are again self-voting with ATE, probably so when N_M flips town her D1 play will look less suspicious. Salsabil has been distancing from Dwlee toDay since the moment she and Marcistar were considered a team. She comes in, says Marci and Dwlee are her scumreads, and votes Dwlee. She has to know, as town or scum, that this makes it look obviously like she is partnered with Marcistar. If she were town she would not want to give credence to the prevailing theory, and if she is scum, voting Dwlee there is an easy way to distance since town is already thinking Salsabil and Marcistar are the team. It makes Marci look bad on a Salsabil flip.
3. Math you say you are brutally efficient town. Who of the 4 candidates for elimination will provide the most useful flip for VCA? Certainly not N_M who has self-voted and not voted all game up until very recently toDay. If anything, you eliminating N_M today is contradictory to what you claim to be. Dwlee has actually used his vote in this game and shifted it around various wagons throughout D1.
4. There are actually only a few new pages of posting, and we still have 3 days, and Nights are only 2 days long. You wanting the night to catch up is inconsistent with what you said on D2. You said you asked for the Night 1 phase to be full length (not a quick night) so you could make sense of the voting patterns, but you could not, which indicated a deep wolf. If anything, you're looking to rush the day to an end now that I am building a case on Dwlee. N_M is an easy end of day compromise we're all happy with. There's no reason to end now when we have time to build actual cases and discuss them, when it is guaranteed we will be able to eliminate N_M before deadline.
1. We do. We could have 100. Not seeing how this makes anyone else a better elim.
2. He absolutely is. I do not want a Not Mafia that loves hammering without explanation in elo. There are other possibilities yes but I have faith those two assuming NM is town will follow elo rules. Not Mafia I do not. Leaving him alive is a huge risk. I am not sure if you know just how much of a troll Not Mafia is.
3. Most useful flip for VCA would be you. I also think that your flip would be way too damaging for town if you are town. I will sacrifice my ability for reads for town’s ability to win every time.
4. There is only a few pages but I really feel like my mind is made up here simply based on Not Mafia doing much of anything. If you can convince other people it’s the right thing then I will take another look but I see no reason to be a gambling man. Yes I am being wholly inconsistent but all that’s going on here is words. There’s no vote patterns to analyze so when I do VCA I remember who they pushed and who they didn’t want but not the details because that’s where scum like to get you.
So in short unless I am missing something it’s pretty clear Not Mafia should be the elim here
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:31 am
by Dwlee99
NM needs to go today. I agree people should still contribute but this day should not end on anything but killing him.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:14 am
by MathBlade
In post 1869, Dwlee99 wrote:NM needs to go today. I agree people should still contribute but this day should not end on anything but killing him.
That’s a catch 22.
Once you’ve decided someone is an elim anything after that is theater for the next day just scum theater or town theater is tbd. That’s why it’s best to limit it to what is useful.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:16 am
by Dwlee99
I think theater can be helpful in looking for alignment
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:20 am
by MathBlade
In post 1871, Dwlee99 wrote:I think theater can be helpful in looking for alignment
Only to a certain extent.
There’s value in brevity.
At some point you reach the “eyes gloss over” point.
When you get to elo/melo and closer to it the cases should be fading away.
For example in a 1v1 and you’re the last Townie deciding the other Townie knows the other person is scum and scum knows the other person is who they have to miselim so their arguments are geared towards that. Instead you look back a few days and some progressions.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:21 am
by MathBlade
A good rule of thumb is how many pages of someone repeating the same thing over and over again before you don’t care?
Is it 20? 10? 30? These numbers I ask not in hyperbole but to value how effective the speech is.
Posted: Tue Aug 03, 2021 3:31 am
by geraintm
I am actually finding Not Mafia even less engaged than i have found in the past. i think by this point there are attempting to make an effort to help town, and they just.......aren't. so wanting them gone today
for me
isn't just a policy elimination
i am normally a very mechanical player and go off votes in game and facts from this game, but this is one of the few times i will make an exception.
i can't remember though who objected to not mafia saying they can read me.
i am fairly sure not mafia can read me very well, he does have that in their defence and it shouldn't be used to attack them.
