Night 2 has begun! Please send in your night actions within (expired on 2020-08-31 13:10:00). If you want a Fast Night, all alive players need to submit Fast Night requests via PM to me.
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:38 am
by TemporalLich
Fast Night has activated!
Dunnstral has died during the night. He was a
Town Cop
Day 3 has begun!
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:47 am
by Marashu
Unfortunate. He probably cleared someone who wasn't in his D2 suspect list on N1.
We do know we had a Town Cop. This means theoretically we may have (s) a Neapolitan or a Doctor (remaining Mafia is a Roleblocker), (b) a Tracker (remaining Mafia is a Rolecop), or (c) No more anti-Mafia PRs (remaining Mafioso is a Goon)
It is abundantly clear Nea/Doc become useless after a massclaim, and Tracker could still catch the Rolecop if they're not outed. If it's a lone Cop then the Goon can fake any of the fore-mentioned 3.
Furthermore, although we have eliminated the WWs, there's a Guardian or an Auditor out there and we don't want them outed today either.
Mathematically we are at 7-1 now. Assuming 3 PRs alive, Nea can give us 2 clear results, unless they've checked a PR. Doctor shouldn't claim if that's the one alive, and Tracker can only give us one clear.
Assuming 2 PRs alive (Seer + Auditor/Guardian) there is absolutely no point in a massclaim.
So, IF and ONLY IF there is a Neapolitan with TWO clears they should claim first, as it would put us on an auto-win. Otherwise, no massclaim for me.
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:37 am
by Chemist1422
auditor/guardian should claim if they're in the PoE
Last mafia is probably in Penguin/Gamma/Teacher/Chemist. It can likely be narrowed down further from pr claims and actions tomorrow
Dunn probably checked in RCE/Dann (both N1 kills). First off, I very much doubt he would have checked ON the wagon (for obvious reasons). Second, He listed ALL LIVING PLAYERS off the wagon at the time of the quoted VC, which means he couldn't clear any of them.
His only post after that was:
In post 1861, Dunnstral wrote:Of those, Chemist/Teacher both basically said 'whatever' and voted jake at the last moment, while Penguin was actively campaigning for anybody else he could convince. Gamma did a bit where he asked someone why they thought jake was town, then a few posts later said they were considering lobbying against the wagon, but after reading decided against it. Kind of weird progression
Which -again- confirms he didn't have a clear on any of the 4 slots.
ONLY if they are being wagoned. As long as we don't have a lol!hammer I think we are good.
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 4:33 am
by Hiraki
mafia could also have rolecop which means they know the PRs anyway, not helpful unless they have something helpful
Vote: Chemist
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:10 am
by dramonic
In post 1886, Hiraki wrote:mafia could also have rolecop which means they know the PRs anyway, not helpful unless they have something helpful
Vote: Chemist
I think there's a fairly solid chance mafia does have said rolecop and actually saw Dunn Night 2, which is how he ended up shot today. The quick night works out for them because they get to silence a strong town role against them.
I want a massclaim before we hit scum.
If we have 3 living PRs with one good result, we can win from here.
With any luck, both of them will fall for the gambler's fallacy and NK me, effectively reducing NKs by 1.
I assume youre just playing along with Gypyx's joke but if not why do you think mafia/werewolf would target the other faction this early?
Partly - it makes sense to me that scum would try to take each other down so they could control the game state, Prisoner's dilemma style. They could hunt PRs, but risk being picked off if the other team isn't doing that.
In post 103, dramonic wrote:Considering they just spent 2 pages circle-jerking, I'm not sold.
That and I'm somehow at 5 out of 4, which is an issue.
vote: TripleHaven
Also teacher and marashu, with one of Dann or Menalque, not sure which since they're both spamming banter rn.
Mind explaining the read on teacher and myself?
VOTE: TripleHaven
I didn't like the way she came in (and I remember hearing a stat that new scum have a higher tendency to say a greeting in their first post). Haven't really felt anything towny since.
I'm not new scum, have played 30+ games on MU (4/5 scum winrate btw... please don't ask about my town winrate) Also that stat is dumb even if I was new scum.
1. you say i'm "spamming" the newb card then point out 2 posts. Apparently 2 posts is spamming. Also, it wasn't even spamming the newb card, it was spamming the "i'm new to this site" card which ARE DIFFERENT
2. and you were expecting me to explain my vote change back then... why? it was RvS, the votes literally didn't matter. The "umulaut was sheeping" thing wasn't even being serious to begin with either. Umulaut voting was like, the second post of the game
3. ???? how does this make me scum ????
4. Or maybe, instead of "caught for the wrong reason" it's "towny pushing against the dumbest reason to scumread them they've ever seen" I've been ML'd like 10+ times and that last part isn't even an exaggeration.
5. It's not even an allusion of content, I was just confused about the post in general.
In post 405, TripleHaven wrote:Dram i wanna conclude that your bad case on me is just towny bad but the lack of anything else towny in your ISO is making me doubt that
I've voted 4 people this game
two of which weren't even serious votes
You've voted 5, 3 of which in the last 12 hours.
And they were serious until someone called you out.
either way your point is stupid and me voting a lot of people is irrelevent to my allignment unless you want to convince me otherwise
like do you *actually* have a problem with me voting a lot of people or do you just want to keep shading me
haven stuff
pretty sold on marashu and dramonic being town from this
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:23 am
by dramonic
...also Marashu is a claimed PR and I was the spearhead of that wagon '_'
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:27 am
by chkflip
Yeah nobody has ever hard bussed their buddy before.
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:34 am
by dramonic
Do you realize how thoroughly fucked I'd be in a game with possibly 2 PRs who can catch me, the solid chances of a crosskill and not letting counterwagons happen this much?
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 5:37 am
by chkflip
The remaining mafia player is either someone very experienced, very smart, or very lucky. Their kills were both on point for their win condition. Calculated risk, etc.
Last mafia is probably in Penguin/Gamma/Teacher/Chemist. It can likely be narrowed down further from pr claims and actions tomorrow
No cop clears, but one can infer he got a clear outside of this list.
Generally unhelpful but a place to start.
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 6:27 am
by Chemist1422
In post 1890, dramonic wrote:...also Marashu is a claimed PR and I was the spearhead of that wagon '_'
look
i'm starting at level 0 just to ensure i'm not insane
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:19 am
by dramonic
In post 1893, chkflip wrote:The remaining mafia player is either someone very experienced, very smart, or very lucky. Their kills were both on point for their win condition. Calculated risk, etc.
I'll take the compliment :p
I'd be most tempted to ex between gammaslot and chemist
...
Coincidentally, you are gammaslot
I still feel fairly strongly about mafia having a rolecop, because the dunn shot feels really... arbitrary? Scum has information over us by virtue of knowing which setup we can be in, I don't see why they wouldn't try to shoot a bigger townslot.
RCE was just meant as a low-info bullet that hit ww imo.
btw we're lynching chemist today regardless
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:20 am
by dramonic
exec*
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 8:52 am
by Hiraki
i thought about it more - i am sort of on the massclaim side again
Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2020 9:13 am
by teacher
Essentially we are playing the old newby setup, with two extraneous PRs. Clearly Pp is the expert in that setup, but he hasn’t been here. I don’t care much about massclaim or not at this point.
VOTE: chemist is still the most likely pairing for Jake in my book.