Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Isis]

honestly I want to see how Morning Tweet responds to cos(x)+sin(x)= 1 and all of you are denying me the spectacle

[Isis]

tea leaves how did my malicious scheming in Nightmare Mafia integrate into your townread of me in this game

[Farren]

What is the likelihood I'm right and everyone else is wrong? It's nonzero, I'm a smart cookie. It just doesn't seem like what's within range of what's worthwhile. I'm a bit more collaborative than that in my approach to the game, if only just.

Worthwhile how? Like, "I'm sure I'm right, but no one else will believe me?" Or "I think I'm right, but I'm not sure, and if I'm wrong I go next?" Or "I'd have to ruin this game to convince people, and that's not worth it?" Or some other line?

[Bell]

The likelihood you’re wrong about me being scum

is

~100%~

[Bell]

Also, also, Ydrasse didn’t self hammer and I would’ve respected that and let her tough it out.

[Isis]

What is the likelihood I'm right and everyone else is wrong? It's nonzero, I'm a smart cookie. It just doesn't seem like what's within range of what's worthwhile. I'm a bit more collaborative than that in my approach to the game, if only just.

Worthwhile how? Like, "I'm sure I'm right, but no one else will believe me?" Or "I think I'm right, but I'm not sure, and if I'm wrong I go next?" Or "I'd have to ruin this game to convince people, and that's not worth it?" Or some other line?

Closest to "I'd have to ruin this game to convince people, and that's not worth it", the level of effort it would take to bring Bell into the bottom 2 slots of the consensus sort is so Herculean that it would significantly degrade the quality of the selection of the 1 other person in the bottom 2 slots of the consensus sort. And that's not worth it when it's not even guaranteed that Bell

ought

to be in the bottom two slots of the consensus sort.

[Isis]

The likelihood you’re wrong about me being scum

is

~100%~

what's the likelihood I'm wrong about Pine being scum?

[Bell]

Also, 100%

[Bell]

i should probably go reread the game again before I say it. But I do think that isis genuinely didn't Realize she wasn’t voting Ydrasse. Which points away from scum her.

That game sounds interesting Farren. I’d probably have lost that game along with the town too.

[Farren]

Bell: if you're talking about this game -

Isis: Fluff is a way of boosting one's post count in a game, and not falling victim to low-posting scum syndrome. The last (offsite) game I was in, the last scum's defense boiled down to "I know I was JK'd last night, and there was no kill, and the JK announced in advance that I was being targeted ... but look at how much I interacted with the person who just flipped scum! I can't possibly be scumpartners with them!" This is reminding me of that, to some extent.

- Town won that one. The whole "no kill after being JK'd with one scum left" argument outweighed the "look! interaction!" argument by quite a bit.

I'm not sure how genuine Isis's belief of not voting Ydrasse is.

hm. Would scum|Isis deliberately try to push something that could be factually disproven, easily? I want to say no ... not an Isis-specific thing, more like most scum don't want to undermine their own position? So genuine is more likely than not, I think.

Compare vs. the sooooooooooo moment - no doubt that was genuine. NAI, but still genuine.

Would scum|Isis genuinely forget that she's not voting her partner? With daytalk, I'd assume no. Without daytalk ... less certain? Can't coordinate, so it's at least possible.

[Isis]

I'd like to think bussing is so close to my ideological center that I could lose track of whether I was currently doing it. But I agree lying about whether I remembered I was voting is something I wouldn't do as either alignment, it's pretty medium risk low reward

[Farren]

Do you usually think in terms of risk/reward?

[Isis]

I'm gonna go with yes. I think that's kind of a tautology though.

[Farren]

Eh, not really. Tautologies have to be true, by definition. Some people don't think in those terms, or may only do so in certain circumstances. Trying to judge if that sort of thinking should be considered NAI where you're concerned.

[Isis]

My conclusion is that I think "the dark" is most likely to connect if you target GeorgeBailey. I think you should shoot whoever it is most likely to connect with because your standing is so poor that public copping yourself to advance XLO by 1 phase for me is probably a net positive. Incidentally the person my analysis ended up settling on is the person you might kill if you disagreed with that, he is someone near the bottom of your readslist that you can justify killing.

I think I need to kill someone who I can totally justify targeting, because my standing is very good. Incidentally, that also seems like someone who is a great fit for Nuclear War based on questionaire, it's Billy Pilgrim, I was already suspecting him and he was onwagon for the greenlaunch.

With 8 players alive, if both our fearkills connect, we factional NK Chara, and no players successfully vig you but 1 player misvigs, we instantly win the game 8-2-1-1=4.

that seems stated in a format of risk/reward, to me
but I think everything is with minimal head tilting and squinting

[Isis]

do you mean you think I only think about risk and reward when I'm scum?

when I'm town I like to fly free and listen to heartsongs and shake magic 8 balls

[Isis]

SHAKE SHAKE

[Dunnstral]

Unofficial Tally:

Ydrasse - 4 (Farren, tea leaves, Morning Tweet, GuiltyLion)
GuiltyLion - 2 (Bell, Ydrasse)

Not Voting - Dunnstral, Isis

5 to eliminate.

why was Bell the final vote on Ydrasse

Maybe the last scum was off wagon?

[Farren]

Which further solidifies that it's probably NAI. I'll try to hunt down a town game or two later and see if the pattern holds. I'm assuming that was a quote from the scumgame you linked earlier.

PEdit> Or at least are more likely to think about it as scum. A lot of behaviors aren't "Only do X as scum" or "Only do X as Town" - but might be more likely to do it as one or the other, or might be more extreme in doing it as one or the other.

[Dunnstral]

Fyi I would have hammered ydrasse instead of letting in no elim - I was watching

[Bell]

I sort of assumed you were already voting her since you said you didn’t think GL was scum

[Bell]

Only person off wagon was isis Dunn.

[Bell]

VOTE: Guilty

hahah i got a spot on the wagon

This vote is also super strange. It comes after Ydrasse did that scummy L-1 vote on Hobbes, and we all discuss how scummy that is and momentum starts to shift back to Ydrasse from Hobbes. Queue Morning coming in putting Hobbes right back on L-1.

Hum

[Morning Tweet]

honestly I want to see how Morning Tweet responds to cos(x)+sin(x)= 1 and all of you are denying me the spectacle

(・ω・；)

[Bell]

My one complaint from isis this day phase is the complaining about the game balance.
....I would have said if she didn’t regularly contribute to set up reviews.