Page 76 of 183
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:54 am
by davesaz
In post 1849, skitter30 wrote: In post 1840, Uncrowned wrote:What motivation does Lilith have to lie there?
If Mena flips green do we not just end up suspecting her?
As I'm typing this I realize it's not that simple but it's a risky play nonetheless
Idk
I'm basically i dont townread lilith
I dont scumread mena
Her result matches up on neither side (wrt the credibility of the persok giving it, and scumminess of the person being guiltied)
I cant explain the motivation but like it'a not completely adding up for me
Let's not forget that Pine was active on site but not playing this game. Menalque is the type of player who can attempt to spew a lurkscum slot town with posting that we can't verify until many flips have happened. What I don't know is if lilith knows that or not.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:54 am
by Menalque
In post 1874, lilith2013 wrote:where are you townreading them? iirc you distinctly said you weren't when asked
oh, right
err, that has changed and I guess I am now
my point still holds about completely undermining that by not sticking to a hardbus/harddistancing if we were partners
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:55 am
by lilith2013
In post 1872, Menalque wrote:
I like the point about how the frame is less likely bc why not just let me pursue town!infinity on D2 and then kill me after I served my purpose if I was wanted dead (and in fact that's a strat I've explicitly used before as scum), which would maybe imply more directly that infinity is just scum, if I was saved by your JK
do you really think the intentional no-kill is a likely scenario, as in, at all?
eh not really, I'm just throwing out possible scenarios. It's last because I think it's the least likely
kinda lowkey interesting that you didn't consider the implications of me claiming cop D1 in any of this, but I'm not sure in exactly what way
again (? actually not sure if I've said this explicitly) I just assumed that anyone low in the draft pick didn't get a PR, which is why I thought it was safe to JK you in the first place.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:55 am
by Menalque
In post 1875, davesaz wrote:Menalque is the type of player who can attempt to spew a lurkscum slot town with posting that we can't verify until many flips have happened
whadda ya mean, lurkscum slot? this was a nothing slot before I came into it, pine had 4 posts!
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:55 am
by lilith2013
fml sorry quotes
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:56 am
by lilith2013
In post 1877, lilith2013 wrote: In post 1872, Menalque wrote:
I like the point about how the frame is less likely bc why not just let me pursue town!infinity on D2 and then kill me after I served my purpose if I was wanted dead (and in fact that's a strat I've explicitly used before as scum), which would maybe imply more directly that infinity is just scum, if I was saved by your JK
do you really think the intentional no-kill is a likely scenario, as in, at all?
eh not really, I'm just throwing out possible scenarios. It's last because I think it's the least likely
kinda lowkey interesting that you didn't consider the implications of me claiming cop D1 in any of this, but I'm not sure in exactly what way
again (? actually not sure if I've said this explicitly) I just assumed that anyone low in the draft pick didn't get a PR, which is why I thought it was safe to JK you in the first place.
I think this fixes it
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:57 am
by Menalque
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:57 am
by lilith2013
In post 1876, Menalque wrote: In post 1874, lilith2013 wrote:where are you townreading them? iirc you distinctly said you weren't when asked
oh, right
err, that has changed and I guess I am now
my point still holds about completely undermining that by not sticking to a hardbus/harddistancing if we were partners
I didn't really think you were hard distancing
I mean it looks that way from his side during your wagon at the beginning of the day, but that doesn't require you to bus him back?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:58 am
by lilith2013
What made you change your read on JV?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:58 am
by Menalque
In post 1882, lilith2013 wrote:I didn't really think you were hard distancing
I mean it looks that way from his side during your wagon at the beginning of the day, but that doesn't require you to bus him back?
right, exactly
if we were partners, it would look like we were hard distancing, that's my point
incidentally, if I were scum, these are exactly the sorts of posts I would be making to fake-spew JV as one of my partners
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:59 am
by davesaz
In post 1868, lilith2013 wrote:actually skitter seems to not be considering at all that you could have been the NK target
To be fair here I would never consider that either.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:00 am
by lilith2013
In post 1884, Menalque wrote: In post 1882, lilith2013 wrote:I didn't really think you were hard distancing
I mean it looks that way from his side during your wagon at the beginning of the day, but that doesn't require you to bus him back?
right, exactly
if we were partners, it would look like we were hard distancing, that's my point
incidentally, if I were scum, these are exactly the sorts of posts I would be making to fake-spew JV as one of my partners
uh... can you ELI5? I don't get what you're trying to say at all
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:00 am
by Menalque
their kind of bad sheepy vote on me, refusal to really engage with me about why I was >rand scum when I tried to talk to them about it, all seem like things scum wouldn't do bc they'd look very bad after I flipped town
and they felt kinda townie when we were jamming about shit after that
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:01 am
by lilith2013
What I'm trying to say is that her mind went straight to "lilith must be lying" instead of like, the other 3 scenarios that mena and I were discussing which are imo more plausible (I mean obviously from my perspective I'm telling the truth, but I don't know why the second most likely scenario to skitter is that I'm lying?)
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:02 am
by Menalque
In post 1886, lilith2013 wrote: In post 1884, Menalque wrote: In post 1882, lilith2013 wrote:I didn't really think you were hard distancing
I mean it looks that way from his side during your wagon at the beginning of the day, but that doesn't require you to bus him back?
right, exactly
if we were partners, it would look like we were hard distancing, that's my point
incidentally, if I were scum, these are exactly the sorts of posts I would be making to fake-spew JV as one of my partners
uh... can you ELI5? I don't get what you're trying to say at all
just pride really, it prob makes more sense to talk about it post-game
I'm saying that if JV and I really were scum together, it wouldn't look like a bad/half-assed bussing job because I'd have told them they'd better fucking commit on the bus if that's the play and I'd be doing my very best to not look associated with them (whereas the way I'm posting about them -- i.e. trying to strongly argue we don't make sense as partners -- is the sort of shit I would do if I really were scum, only I wouldn't do it with my actual partner, I'd do it to a townie who I wanted town to THINK was my partner, in order to help my actual partners)
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:06 am
by Menalque
like, I'm not gonna argue that I'm a scumgod or anything
but all I'm saying is that I think if there are 3 things I'm good at as scum, they are
(1) having a plan to win
(2) being very aware of how I'm perceived by the other players and very sensitive to that (albeit subtly)
(3) making sure that if I am going down I incriminate innocent townies and don't look like my partners are my partners
and it's just sorta funny that I'm being scumread this game, in a non-mechanical sense, for having supposedly done a really shitty job at the things which I'm actually pretty consistently strong at when I roll scum
I'm not expecting this post to actually make anyone feel better about my slot, but it's funny to me
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:07 am
by TheGoldenParadox
In post 1764, Uncrowned wrote:I just have a real icky feeling about TGP in general tbh
The whole part where they default to Hoopla and then gets on a wagon once one has picked up looks like an attempt to show active voting/hunting although Hoopla hasn't been at the forefront of the game in what feels like forever at this point, like probably 40 pages ago or more?
But then when we have these crucial moments (DGB and Mena now, I'd say) they have almost nothing to say other than getting on the wagon?
there
is
nothing to say
my vote on dgb was because flipping a claimed pgo is protown not only because pgo is negative util but because it removes the possibility of a scum 1-shot vig being in the game so it didn't matter if dgb was a star player because mechanically their slot was proscum even if their claim was true (which it was)
my vote on mena is also mechanical because of lillith's claim
on the off chance mena flips town infinity is probably scum
i was voting hoopla because she is incredibly unlikely to be a PR and therefore a much better lim than anyone in the top half of the draft i have cased her ya know
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:08 am
by TheGoldenParadox
In post 1769, Uncrowned wrote:I'm not sure TGP/Infinity would be together judging by TGP's posting about how everyone should get off the DGB wagon and go after Infinity on D1.
But then again... they ended up going back on that decision almost immediately which is why I'm sussing them in the first place so it could be a possibility.
because dgb claimed pgo lol
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:08 am
by Menalque
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:09 am
by Menalque
do you think there are 2 scum in the 4's, TGP?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:10 am
by TheGoldenParadox
In post 1813, Uncrowned wrote: In post 1296, TheGoldenParadox wrote:this probably isn't the time to start a dunnstral wagon. i'm fine eliminating in {infinity, hoopla, dgb}, but we can't no-elim.
or can we (?) idk but isn't this game at evens or something and odds are better?
In post 1349, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
i
always
have fewer posts than the mod. it doesn't mean i haven't put a lot of content out. your play the last two pages has seemed very weird to me.
that being said, i don't buy dgb scum, and considering that i don't think she'd lie about being such a good townplayer, i'm not on board with eliminating her d1 under any circumstances. like come on, this is just a "eliminate the least charismatic player" (not an attack on you dgb, just that you have written off this game to an extent) and i don't buy this wagon at all. my vote will stay on infinity, and y'all should join me.
In post 1369, TheGoldenParadox wrote:VOTE: dgb
sorry. no one else above you in the draft took vig, you chose the vig slot, and then took PGO? don't believe it, sorry
In post 1638, TheGoldenParadox wrote:VOTE: menal
These were all back to back in their ISO. This does not look natural at all.
i'm good with this elim today.
This also looks real bad, especially considering TGP's play has consisted of "Let's lynch Hoopla" who, as I said, hasn't been the focus of the game in terms of being pressured or wagon since I want to say roughly page 20-30.
The lack of willingness to engage with the wagons, only to jump on at the most opportunistic moment with no comments on either slot (DGB and now Mena) can't be ignored.
This doesn't seem like townplay to me. Even when TGP has been "against" the wagon, they've barely spoken about it and have only either voted someone else or voted on the wagon. There's no other interaction here. No information seeking or real attempts at reads outside of Hoopla
Also forgot to mention but assuming I'm right on this TGP thing, Daves is most likely town.
ineteresting on how you call my votes opportunistic
they're very simply mechanically-driven votes
also by "any circumstances" i meant "any reasonable circumstances" to me, dgb claiming PGO was almost as unexpected as if she outright claimed scum
anyways why would she even take that slot if she hated vig and knew pgo was basically negative utility
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:11 am
by TheGoldenParadox
so convenient! a player who is guaranteed to be a power role claimed jailkeeper on a slot that is incredibly unlikely to be nightkilled, and no nightkills occured.
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:12 am
by Menalque
obviously bc she thought (correctly) that it was one of the ones that might still be available
also because she said she thought there was a good chance scum might try to kill her on N1 which would let her elim one of them
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:12 am
by Menalque
In post 1896, TheGoldenParadox wrote:
so convenient! a player who is guaranteed to be a power role claimed jailkeeper on a slot that is incredibly unlikely to be nightkilled, and no nightkills occured.
why am I so unlikely to be a NK, TGP
you've played with me
am I not a threat to scum?
Posted: Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:13 am
by TheGoldenParadox
In post 1825, Uncrowned wrote:I feel like the not wanting to vote out PRs thing is kinda NAI? its LAMISTy and can come from either alignment imo
Their casing on Hoopla does look decent but I do have an issue with it - it's mainly based around game theory and the draft. They've done nothing to progress that read since making it based on Hoopla's play outside of the whole 4s thing that was all talked about during the beginning of the game. I feel like she's posted enough to where, if you were STILL scumreading her (which I assume TGP does considering they voted her now on D2?) you'd think there'd be more substance to it by now.
i don't expect my reads in this game to be great it's filled with players who are much better than i am
but i do think that i can look at someone's play and look at their position in the draft and what they have said to arrive at a reasonable conclusion
hoopla is scum
and i've used a lot of hoopla's actual posting especially her interaction with PP it wasn't JUST the fours thing lol