Mafiascum.net

In post 1899, Replica wrote:

In post 1883, Farkran wrote:The inductive vs deductive reasoning debate is not born today.

Starting with a desired conclusion then gathering evidence is not inductive inference/reasoning.

1. What does "desired" mean to you? How does reading posts from different povs imply that i "desire" those post to be scummy? Is there anyone i didn't apply such method?

2. Did i hardpush anyone based on any "desired" conclusion? Because a similar argument happened during d2 too, and i don't recall changing my gamesolve based on the analysis of new theories. I have been asking questions, sometimes they were answered, sometimes they weren't.

I am still waiting on your answer, and Nacho's.

In post 1897, Amrun wrote:

In post 1895, Farkran wrote:

In post 1888, Amrun wrote:

In post 1884, Farkran wrote:Actually Amrun, what's your scumcase on me over Bingle, Chemist, Nacho or Replica? Because what i have been reading up to this point is doubt towards my slot, but i don't find any reason to PoE me in your posts, except for townleaning Chara because you agree with it - yet posturing against it too.

In particular, i want to know why you are voting for me today instead of pursuing my flip during the earlier days. Let me understand what makes you think that today i am a good lynch as opposed to d1 or d2.

I don’t have one! I just think it’s viable. I’m not getting my Bingle lynch, clearly. I think there has been a lot of discussion surrounding you this game day that would make your flip informative, one way or the other.

I can create maybe just as many scenarios in my head of you being town as you being scum. If I had a strong scumread in me for this game, you all would never hear me shut up about it, but that’s not the case.

I want to fight in {Bingle, Farkran, Chemist} today. Anything outside of that I’m not interested in.

The part about wanting to lynch in that group, and the part about my flip being plenty of info, i can understand and i also agree that from a pov different than my own, that trio can have scum equity.

The part i do not understand is why you haven't been pushing me earlier, when it would have been viable and useful - instead you started pushing Bingle and ended up doing nothing - as opposed to today, where you started pushing me first after you have seen a progression swing from Nacho (start of d3 ISO) and Bingle (1758). What changed your lynch priority order besides me looking "easier"? How would my flip help you today? It's not even that i disagree that it would help, but i wanna know your perspective about it.

For at least most of yesterday, I decided I townread you. I also had some sort of delusion that I could make Bingle lynch happen (clearly not).

With a couple of viable pairings (to me) taken off the table with Psyche’s death, and deciding that I think Nacho is probably town after all, my PoE narrows.

That’s kinda it, really. My heart has been fickle this game.

What were those viable pairings, and why do you think Nacho is town?

#802, #996, #1608, #1840

Whoops, I linked to 804. Here's the real #802

In post 1902, Replica wrote:#802, #996, #1608, #1840

Yeah. All of those posts are you declaring what i am doing, not what i am actually doing.

Name a slot that i haven't been reading from both povs in mind, and tell me exactly where i have been pushing for a desired conclusion rather than an inferred one based on the gamestate, or -viceversa- where i have been directing my townreads and scumreads based on conveniency rather than genuine thinking. You weren't scumreading me when i voted you, if i recall correct. Nacho was not scumreading me yesterday, when i reconsidered him. Chara was not scumreading me when i started voting it. Amrun, on the other hand, WAS scumleaning me when i had her as one of my highest townreads, back at the time - then she progressed her read on me, and i did the same.

If you started reading my posts, rather than just fixating yourself on reading the name of who written them and then say "oh, here it is, another shitpost from the same guy", everyone would be happy.

Since you say you think it is an effort to reread my wall posts, despite ISO being made mostly by nested links - like that would be in any way easier - i'll make a brief recap to you:

I have been scumreading ALL slots in the game at some point. I have found scum motivation in pretty much EVERY post that i read. Ultimately though, some of those made sense, some didn't. Some were worth questioning further, some i deemed as paranoia and let them go. This is because some explanations fit with the other pieces of the puzzle, some others do not. I keep those who can form a shapely figure, and i discard those that clash with their adjacent pieces. For example, your slot has a lot of instances that are scummy if taken in a vacuum, but the gamestate as a whole wouldn't be explained -properly- by scum!Replica. The same is true for Chemist and the Almidia/Bingle succession, and for Amrun. Hectic, Chara and Nacho are still the slots that i could explain the whole gamestate with, if they are scum.

That's how i play, in every game, as both alignments. Which is why i am not denying plausible scumread of me, but i want to know what puts me below the other slots and/or what made you change your mind about the Hectic/Chara/Farkran trio today of all times.

In post 1875, Bingle wrote:And yes, I see that Chara responded.

what's your conclusion from that? i haven't had time to go over your Amrun case in detail though i've gotten the gist. i think she's right about the general absence of strong pushes this game.

In post 1904, Farkran wrote:Yeah. All of those posts are you declaring what i am doing, not what i am actually doing.

Name a slot that i haven't been reading from both povs in mind, and tell me exactly where i have been pushing for a desired conclusion rather than an inferred one based on the gamestate, or -viceversa- where i have been directing my townreads and scumreads based on conveniency rather than genuine thinking.

#989 pretty decisively rules out that you reached the conclusion you did from reading my ISO. This is not looking at it from both viewpoints. You further claimed that "you couldn't miss [the conclusion]" if you read my ISO, making this even more of a joke.

The links you're replying to, #802, #1608, #1840, all very clearly point to specific instances, not just broad trends. #1319 goes further on why I perceived your push as opportunistic.

Links are generally made for reference materials and brevity. Rehashing the exact same argument, quoting past posts extensively, and responding to you in general, given your 5 second attention span, refusal to search for an answer yourself even when I have indicated repeatedly where it can be found, have all bloated the game and made it harder for others to engage in meaningful ways. I am actively hurting us all every time I bother to respond to you.

In post 1887, Farkran wrote:

In post 1834, Chara wrote:

In post 1829, Farkran wrote:And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.

this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.

Do you think Replica answered?

If so, what was your question to me?

Also, what do you think of the current gamestate?

i don't think Replica answered in response to this, but i didn't want to affect the interaction right then. given his followups i believe Replica is of the opinion he did already answer, and i have to agree. the answer being that his confidence was not "demolished today" given he did not have that confidence day 2, either.

my question to you was this: your post here implies a belief that concrete flips are the only source of information worth changing opinions over. is this a fair statement?

current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

In post 1906, Replica wrote:#989 pretty decisively rules out that you reached the conclusion you did from reading my ISO. This is not looking at it from both viewpoints. You further claimed that "you couldn't miss [the conclusion]" if you read my ISO, making this even more of a joke.

The links you're replying to, #802, #1608, #1840, all very clearly point to specific instances, not just broad trends. #1319 goes further on why I perceived your push as opportunistic.

Links are generally made for reference materials and brevity. Rehashing the exact same argument, quoting past posts extensively, and responding to you in general, given your 5 second attention span, refusal to search for an answer yourself even when I have indicated repeatedly where it can be found, have all bloated the game and made it harder for others to engage in meaningful ways. I am actively hurting us all every time I bother to respond to you.

None of the quoted posts point at me adjusting my reads based on conveniency though, and they clearly show how you are reading only things that are convenient to further your case of me. This is evident in all the posts you quoted. You should learn to read context, it will be a useful skill in the future.

I have been saying a million times that i think there is scum on my wagon, and all the instances where i was voting people outside it were when i was trying to read the game from town!hectic pov, after sujimichi slipped and i was townleaning amrun - which made me try to look at the game from a "my wagon is entirely town" perspective. Around the same time i was also scumreading Chemist, who was townreading both Asriel and me; and i considered a Psyche/Chemist solve as my favorite guess. Then d2 and the Chara thing happened.

Nothing that you have said in your posts directed at me is even close to demonstrate that my reads are opportunistically tailored to favor my scum agenda. You are quoting pieces of my ISO literally without any context and you are making absolutely no attempt to sort my slot.

Ah, yes, the old "That isn't ACTUALLY evidence of what you think, because you are wrong" defense

In post 1907, Chara wrote:

In post 1887, Farkran wrote:

In post 1834, Chara wrote:

In post 1829, Farkran wrote:And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.

this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.

Do you think Replica answered?

If so, what was your question to me?

Also, what do you think of the current gamestate?

i don't think Replica answered in response to this, but i didn't want to affect the interaction right then. given his followups i believe Replica is of the opinion he did already answer, and i have to agree. the answer being that his confidence was not "demolished today" given he did not have that confidence day 2, either.

What's your interpretation of post 1827? How do you not assume that him afraid he's wrong on his read of me/you/hectic is a demolition - hyperbolically speaking, of course - of his previous confidence on you and me at least, if not Hectic? I would still think that you shouldn't spare where you aren't confident to hit on town, but we're talking about Replica so i'll concede that he'd spare people even in the face of scum equity. That doesn't explain WHAT changed his reads today, and HOW he is still throwing shit at me even when post 1827 is actually in my favor despite the subsequent hurt vote. The vote is not what i disliked in that series of posts, for anyone who was wondering.

In post 1907, Chara wrote: my question to you was this: your post here implies a belief that concrete flips are the only source of information worth changing opinions over. is this a fair statement?

No, of course not. But they are a solid, reliable source of info that shouldn't be ignored, especially when you aren't confident in your reads enough to do otherwise. If the gamestate is stalling and you do not have a clear view of what scum is doing, it means scum is likely doing good (or town is doing very bad), and this usually implies that you can't have reliable reads on tone/content/progression analysis only. That's when you need a flip.

In post 1907, Chara wrote: current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

Talk to me more about your Nacho read, please.

first pass on Nacho is there's a lot of Farkran interaction and i don't know how to get a conclusion out of it.
but out of time.
before i go: Nacho, i asked about your Replica townread not because i want a Replica towncase but because i want you to tell me why you strongly believe he's town.

haven't read the rest of that post Farkran but please check my ISO for Nacho. i remember saying a few times that i want to concentrate on him because i don't have a read.

In post 1909, Replica wrote:Ah, yes, the old "That isn't ACTUALLY evidence of what you think, because you are wrong" defense

Oh, sorry. I forgot the only way to engage with you is to agree with you even when presented with hard evidence that you did NOT read my posts in context, instead accumulating circumstantial nonsense to go even deeper in your tunnel.

Otherwise you refuse to address the simplest of questions with a straight answer. Keep it up, you're doing great.

In post 1912, Chara wrote:haven't read the rest of that post Farkran but please check my ISO for Nacho. i remember saying a few times that i want to concentrate on him because i don't have a read.

I will. And i'll be waiting on the results of your concentration on Nacho.

In post 1898, Replica wrote:If someone that is not Farkran does not understand why I spared Hectic, or incorrectly thinks I had him as a solid town, I will gladly answer 1829/1882 and point to the relevant posts.

I have been more than generous enough with my time and patience to Farkran. The Buddha had limits. Mine are much lower.

Do you think I’ve been hard to engage with this game?

In post 1901, Farkran wrote: What were those viable pairings, and why do you think Nacho is town?

What were which viable pairings? Do you mean with Bingle?

Bingle/Farkran is my preferred solve, and you know that.

Bingle/Chemist is viable too.

Bingle/Nacho also works.

Bingle/Chara works, even Bingle/Replica though I think the last is a little less likely.

I think the only Bingle pairing that is obviously untrue is Bingle/Amrun.


I think nacho is making a genuine effort to sort you and I follow his train of thought very clearly. It’s not the strongest TR I have ... maybe a townlean? If I were to add one person to my lynch pool it would be nacho, but I’d still rather keep him out, mostly for the original reasoning I had of him really sticking his neck out for Hectic.

In post 1897, Amrun wrote: With a couple of viable pairings (to me) taken off the table with Psyche’s death, and deciding that I think Nacho is probably town after all, my PoE narrows.

Oh, i meant those you mentioned in this post.

Yes, i know Bingle/Farkran is your solve - i was just wondering why you didn't try to push me yesterday, when today you immediately sheeped Replica on my wagon. I had two votes yesterday too, and with my own i reached 3 (though for only a brief period, because psyche countered that by sparing hectic, but i did say i would help if needed), and Chara could have rejoined.

Why did you think i wouldn't be viable yesterday? I might have been more viable than Bingle, actually. What concerns me about you is what made you change your mind on that. I can only see Nacho's swing as a difference, and i don't see why that would change a thing in your perspective about me.

Wrt nacho himself, yes it may seem that he's sorting me. But i'm taking issue with the timing of this. Today is the day where scum could lose by lynching one of them - this is the day where you narrow your pool, not when you broaden it. I would have been fine with my lynch d1 or d2, said that many times, offered more than one opportunity to get a flip. I produced tons of content, generated tons of interactions. Why townreading me until he achieved the spare on hectic, and then starting a reconsideration on me today?

Farkran, if it’s normal for my PoE to be my narrowing, why are you questioning my PoE narrowing?

In post 1918, Amrun wrote:Farkran, if it’s normal for my PoE to be my narrowing, why are you questioning my PoE narrowing?

I asked you a different thing: why are you pushing me today instead of yesterday?

The comment about PoE narrowing is about Nacho, not you.

In post 1919, Farkran wrote:

In post 1918, Amrun wrote:Farkran, if it’s normal for my PoE to be my narrowing, why are you questioning my PoE narrowing?

I asked you a different thing: why are you pushing me today instead of yesterday?

The comment about PoE narrowing is about Nacho, not you.

I feel like I answered this question, though. I’m not sure what else to say about it?

I was feeling like I could maybe lynch Bingle and I have accepted it’s not happening. Nacho seems like he could vote you now which makes you seem more viable to me. Yesterday I had you closer to town on the spectrum than I do today, due to PoE narrowing. This is all basic restating a previous post? Not sure what else you want, sorry :/