Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!


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Post Post #1900 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:22 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 144, MariaR wrote:When this game starts to get serious so will I
And now I'm starting to get really paranoid. You sound like you did in TM2020 (although -to be fair- you also did that in the game with corporations and a civil war... what was it's name?)

OK: IF I WAS THE HIDER (AND I'M NOT CLAIMING TO BE) I'D BE HIDING BEHIND MARIA TONIGHT.

In other words, if I flip overnight, and I happen to be the Hider, and Maria is still alive, chances are she is Scum (who would probably try to claim Commuter to buy herself another day/night).

Now if I'm still alive by D2, and/or if Maria is herself dead, then we will know for sure.

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Post Post #1901 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:33 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 146, skitter30 wrote:
In post 141, Bingle wrote:Oh, and also I am explicitly claiming not to be a commuter.
is this something that you think that everyone ought to claim?
CERTAINLY NOT! At the extreme case we have THREE Commuters, and everyone who claims not to be one is adding themselves to the pool of the NK for the scum/SK to shoot. (Unless -of course- you have a track record of fake claiming as either alignment. in which case nobody's going to believe it anyway)

Like, I am NOT the Hider, but IF I WAS I'd be hiding behind Maria tonight. Now am I a Hider? Am I a Commuter? Or am I something else? I mean, I could be Tracker and "track record" would be my crumb. Then again, I could be just a VT messing around and making Scum unsure. Hell, I could be a 1-shot Tracker (thus KNOW there has to be a FULL Tracker) and I'm just baiting the NK away from them, while -simultaneously- telling them that I would be on Maria so they should be on someone else.

I bet not even YOU can guess what my role is. :lol:

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Post Post #1902 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:02 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 164, gobbledygook wrote:Theoretically we should actually all crumb a person we are hiding behind at the end of the day to obscure any real hiders in plain sight.
Theoretically that's a bad idea because if I'm the Hider and announce that I'm hiding behind Maria:

A) Maria is Town >> Scum shoot her >> I'm dead on N1
B) Maria is Town >> Scum shoot her >> I'm not dead = I'm not the Hider
C) Maria is Scum >> I'm dying anyway >> Scum know not to shoot me and will shoot another townie
D) Maria is Scum >> I'm not dead >> Scum know I am not the Hider

Now apply that to ALL slots, knowing there is only ONE Hider in play at max, and you know they can exclude 3-4 players already from being it on a single night

BUT we can certainly think of another way to go about this. Like, if we knew there was a Doctor (and we don't) then we announce the Hider targets Maria and the Doctor protects her. That was if Maria is Town she is either confirmed or Scum would have to use their 1-shot Strongman on N1. If she is Scum and the Hider dies that's a hard guilty anyway.

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Post Post #1903 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:02 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Disclaimer: Sleepiness is creeping into my eyes, so I may have overlooked something at one point or another

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Post Post #1904 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:05 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 168, Bingle wrote:and hider results aren't 100% with JK/busdriver in the potential mix.
They both resolve AFTER the Hider (according to the wiki page).

Order of operations for night resolution is as follows:
Commuting
Hiding
Bus Driving
Jailkeeping / Roleblocking
Protecting
Killing
Investigating

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Post Post #1905 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:06 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Not that I disagree that it's still a bad idea for all to crumb theoretical Hider targets, but I was refuting the part about Hider's results not being reliable.

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Post Post #1906 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:10 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 169, Bingle wrote:
Lynch Almost50
and together we can rule Antarctica as Penguin and some kind of weird bear thingy.
WTF? Are you a soothsayer? psychic?? Or do you have a Time Machine???

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Post Post #1907 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:12 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 173, Bingle wrote:Hider is one of the safest fakeclaims in the setup, in that it has a built in reason for not dying and a massive benefit for town. Commuter, similarly, is a fairly safe claim.
Thanks for the tip. I shall claim one of these if I'm driven to L-1. :twisted:

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Post Post #1908 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:22 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 178, Bingle wrote:~3 of the pseudoclaims come from scum, meaning that scum has no added incentive to kill that person. 3 town players all say that they're going to hide behind Y, because Y is moderately townread but not outside of their scumrange entirely. 2 more town players say they're going to hide behind X because same reasons. Scum now has the ability to bus drive Y and scum, and kill X. If no hider flips, none of X and the 5 players can be the hider. That's 10 players who can't be the hider at day start of D2. During N2, killing the hider becomes trivial.
I don't see how you got FIVE even if you thought BD resolved first. It's either or. BD resolves before Hider = those targeting X will actually hit Y and vise versa. If BD resolves after the the Hider hits the designated target of their choice. Unless you also assumed Y is SCUM (in addition to thinking BD resolved before Hiding), so you thought Y visitors would hit X (and if there's a Hider among them they will die, otherwise they're not the Hider) AND those who targeted C will hit Y (and if the Hider is among them will die because they hid behind Scum, otherwise they're not the Hider).

But anyway, since BD resolves AFTER the Hider that makes the Hider result 100% accurate, as they can neither be affected by the BusDriver nor the Jailkeeper (or even the 1-shot RB from the Scum JOAT if existent)

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Post Post #1909 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:27 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 194, Pink Ball wrote:Yes
In post 144, MariaR wrote:When this game starts to get serious so will I
Scum!Maria doesn't post this
Image

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Post Post #1910 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:32 pm

Post by Almost50 »

Wait! I just realized NOW that Menalque resides at Southampton, UK. Did I confuse you with "teacher"?? I could have sworn you said you spent a few years in Latin America working as a teacher. :facepalm:

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Post Post #1911 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:34 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 227, gobbledygook wrote:I think Ppay have met his match
It's spelt POPEYE! :P

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Post Post #1912 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:43 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 253, gobbledygook wrote:I don’t like the idea of commuters claiming to confirm the hider exists.
Mate, Bingle said specifically that ONLY ONE Commuter should claim. There is no plural there. Just one. And while that
could
be Scum fishing for setup info, it could come from a town mindset all the same. Let's say it's NAI

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Post Post #1913 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:49 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 274, Menalque wrote:I can’t remember if you shit on my ability to read you in 1992 but I think possibly there as well
Mate. that was 28 years ago. get over it. :P

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Post Post #1914 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:53 pm

Post by Almost50 »

In post 317, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 315, Menalque wrote:
In post 311, PenguinPower wrote:Lilith is scum.
Are you disappointed in yourself for not managing to flashlynch me within 5 pages despite me trying to help?

Also, why?
Extremely disappointed. I wanted to get you a good gift.

Also, because I want to give her more reasons to scum read me since she thinks I’m being serious.

Image
Don't bloody lick you finger, rub your eyes or touch your nose. It's how you let the covid-19 virus into your body.

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Post Post #1915 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:58 pm

Post by Almost50 »

I think I'll stop here (bottom of page 14). I'll continue my catch up tomorrow (so don't be posting more than 10-12 new pages).

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Post Post #1916 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 9:57 pm

Post by Blake Belladonna »

In post 1889, MariaR wrote:I mean I already had Chem in my poe list and now since A50 has joined it really is helping turn that poe into a scumread.

To answer previous questions: Blake has promised some kind of content the next day or at least getting into the game. I don't think anyone has any real reason to say 'no' to lynching Blake besides the fact you may have stronger scumreads. So at one point she's gonna need to deliver on some reads, if they're wrong well... you know where that leads.

PB depends on Mena/Gobble.
It appears that the last couple of days haven't happened.
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Post Post #1917 (ISO) » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:52 pm

Post by skitter30 »

Hi a50 !!!!

A50 is town! That was easy!

Gobbles i hope you're ok/not suffering from covid
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Post Post #1918 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:58 am

Post by PenguinPower »

Oh god...it’s happening again.
<(") | (")>
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Post Post #1919 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:31 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1887, gobbledygook wrote:I'm very ill with some sort of respiratory sickness (please dear god not covid) so I will not be here much over the next couple of days
:(

Be well turkey

We'll try to help lighten your load by removing all your responsibilities in this game.
Shame on a martyr claiming friends
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Post Post #1920 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:33 am

Post by Pink Ball »

What responsabilities?? You guys got responsabilities??
"Your intentions are not defined by how things went, but how things could've gone." (Ball, 2019)
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Post Post #1921 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:34 am

Post by Something_Smart »

In post 1901, Almost50 wrote:Like, I am NOT the Hider, but IF I WAS I'd be hiding behind Maria tonight. Now am I a Hider? Am I a Commuter? Or am I something else? I mean, I could be Tracker and "track record" would be my crumb. Then again, I could be just a VT messing around and making Scum unsure. Hell, I could be a 1-shot Tracker (thus KNOW there has to be a FULL Tracker) and I'm just baiting the NK away from them, while -simultaneously- telling them that I would be on Maria so they should be on someone else.
Oh, I've missed playing with you. :lol:
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Post Post #1922 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:58 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 1908, Almost50 wrote:I don't see how you got FIVE even if you thought BD resolved first. It's either or. BD resolves before Hider = those targeting X will actually hit Y and vise versa. If BD resolves after the the Hider hits the designated target of their choice. Unless you also assumed Y is SCUM (in addition to thinking BD resolved before Hiding), so you thought Y visitors would hit X (and if there's a Hider among them they will die, otherwise they're not the Hider) AND those who targeted C will hit Y (and if the Hider is among them will die because they hid behind Scum, otherwise they're not the Hider).
You misunderstand how NAR works, as always, old friend.

The Golden Rule applies first:

Apply actions which modify other actions before the actions they modify.

In this case, say that a Hider targets Maria and a busdriver targets Maria. The busdriver effects the hider, but the hider doesn't effect the busdriver. Therefore the busdriver applies first, meaning the hider will target someone who is not Maria.

To get a case with the ordered list mattering here, we'll say the hider is the case where it is fully untargetable, not just immune to NKs. The hider targets Maria and the Busdriver targets Maria and the hider. The hider and bus driver both attempt to effect each other (hider by making the busdriver fail, busdriver by making the hider change targets). The hider takes priority, the busdriver fails, and the hider is awkwardly crouched behind Maria all night while she showcases a complete lack of situational awareness as town or has a murderparty as scum.

Of course, that's not the version of the hider in this game. The version of the hider in this game is the version where only nightkills fail to target them, so the busdriver will always be able to effect the hider's target.



As far as narrowing down the hider faster than 4 per night, there will be overlap in the hider target claims. It doesn't make sense to target someone who is a universal townread or a claimed PR since they're probably going to die and you don't get much knowledge from targeting them. It doesn't make sense to target someone you're sure is scum because innocent results are better for a hider than guilties. As such, with 12 people going into night we can assume only 8-9 of them will be reasonable choices for a hider, meaning we can assume significant overlap in the hider crumbs.
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Post Post #1923 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:59 am

Post by Bingle »

In post 1917, skitter30 wrote:Hi a50 !!!!

A50 is town! That was easy!

Gobbles i hope you're ok/not suffering from covid
Yeah, probably.
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Post Post #1924 (ISO) » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:59 am

Post by skitter30 »

ok so can we lynch ss now!
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