Xenoblade Mafia (Game Over)

[Metal Sonic]

andrius town

broseidon leaning town

ghoslin leaning town

2, nacho varsoon cabd strong town

[Nachomamma8]

I've been using trajectory to analyze series of posts for years. It's like pattern matching was before that. people usually decide what they think I mean and then go do something different.

You know what I mean by trajectory.

Good
Do you want me to write up a case on AJ's in thread posts?

[RachMarie]

trajectory??? who brought Calculus into a mafia game

I am not liking AJ and I think it is time to lay down a vote...

VOTE: AJ

he is my top scumspect. He is not looking at everyone and yeah not much meat there just a few points on a few peeps.

[²]

@nacho It's dinnertime...so yeah. Do you want me to try the same when I get back? We'll probably focus on different stuff based on what I've seen in prior games.

- f

[Nachomamma8]

@nacho It's dinnertime...so yeah. Do you want me to try the same when I get back? We'll probably focus on different stuff based on what I've seen in prior games.

- f

yes please.

[TiphaineDeath]

Third paragraph of 1785 is a scum claim.

He's making himself sound unthreatnening, pandering to town interest, after forgetting that his counterpart claimed tracker/miller he is now making sure that all take notice. There is just so much subtle deflection in this post it does the opposite for me.

The paragraphs above are saying wifom is ok and not a big deal while at the same time inspiring a whole load of it is also bad. These kind of tactics are the same i often use as scum to great effect, thus I can spot them.

"happy to try" "Prove my alignment" "curious" these words are still in the, "look at me I am a happy team playing townie" vein of speech. While maintaining the stance that he's not angry at anyone who thinks he is scum.

1793 is more of the same.

"Simply hoping you'd save me the bother"
"form my own read"

Every word out of this mans mouth is trying so damned hard to be town he cannot possibly be.

I am completely certain that MS is scum, however given that no on else is I'll lift my vote on him to vote reverend, I maintain that anytime anyone wants to vote ms I'll be right there with them.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: reverend

[Nachomamma8]

I'm also gonna go over the people who are leaning town but not really town town yet.

[Nachomamma8]

And let's talk about TD some more because his recent posts are really really town even though I don't necessarily agree with them.

[Metal Sonic]

^

[TheReverend]

Nah I'm not self voting. You're wrong TD. You'll see my flip soon enough.

I just did an ISO of mac, he can be added to my town camp, he's clean as fuck.

TD seems town to me. I think he does actually think I'm scum.

2, MS and varsoon are the people I'm most suspicious of right now.

[Varsoon]

Third paragraph of 1785 is a scum claim.

He's making himself sound unthreatnening, pandering to town interest, after forgetting that his counterpart claimed tracker/miller he is now making sure that all take notice. There is just so much subtle deflection in this post it does the opposite for me.

The paragraphs above are saying wifom is ok and not a big deal while at the same time inspiring a whole load of it is also bad. These kind of tactics are the same i often use as scum to great effect, thus I can spot them.

"happy to try" "Prove my alignment" "curious" these words are still in the, "look at me I am a happy team playing townie" vein of speech. While maintaining the stance that he's not angry at anyone who thinks he is scum.

1793 is more of the same.

"Simply hoping you'd save me the bother"
"form my own read"

Every word out of this mans mouth is trying so damned hard to be town he cannot possibly be.

I am completely certain that MS is scum, however given that no on else is I'll lift my vote on him to vote reverend, I maintain that anytime anyone wants to vote ms I'll be right there with them.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: reverend

You tryin'a fool me, TD?
'cus this is what I believe. D:

[Nachomamma8]

Too many bad posts. Voting Nacho immediately because no scum would ever miller claim? Bad. If you don't think scum would do it, they'll try it. Unvoting with "Huh, interesting". Also bad. Bad scum must die, and I wish I could do math with that name but I can't.

He had reasoning for the miller tracker being scum, but instead chose to attack "bad scum die". There's no reasoning whatsoever in there, and the fact that he pretty much ignores the miller tracker after this except for "you can be whatever alignment you want" was bad. It felt like he didn't care about sorting it out at all and was just avoiding the situation because he didn't want to take sides in it. Cabd, what do you think of this point?

Why are we still on the Miller/tracker thing and not lynching scum TD? I am very mildly put off that we have yet to focus the minute attention needed to lynch that motherfucker.

Let's face it, TD is scum. If you want Sven to be scum in your happy world, that's fine, too. But confirmed scum die first.

Weird as fuck post. Ignores literally everything and says that "oh TD is still scum", doesn't add to his case or refine his read. I would expect town AJ to pick up on all the shit that happened, not just dumbtunnel TD.

You know, I was kind of upset about this, but then this:

REALLY pissed me off. How the actual fuck is that guy town?

This is not how town tries to sell a scumread. He's angry at being scumread, but that doesn't make sense considering he had not done JACK AND SHIT up to that point and he really shouldn't expect otherwise.

Post 52: The logical fallacy of "Scum would never do that and in my might 20 games, I've never seen it!" Bad logic, and if that was the case, scum would claim that shit all the time. Doesn't take a genius to figure out scum does what town is willing to give town points for.

Post 99 an unvote off of you, stating "Huh, interesting". No reason. Trying to get off without specifying what changed the opinion.

Post 278 votes sven (The "Can't be scum" guy) saying that he's done a 'shitstorm of wifom'. Guess what? That's what you get with ANY miller claim.

All of this is surface scumhunting, which is pretty much useless. AJ's not a surface scumhunter at all.

Nacho is the town-Venmar this game.
Orcinus is running in fucking circles at the moment. Varsoon is running in ovals. Varsoon was way too quick to back off his case for Orc, but even stranger is that Orc didn't hammer on Varsoon for completely disregarding orc after about 4 posts (even though he went through all that trouble for an incredibly long wall). Even worse, Orc backs off his own vote.

To be honest, I've learned from past that orc can have his say, but don't give him too much weight. It can result in catastrophe. So even considering him a 'town leader' (What, by posts? Definitely not by flips...) is presumptuous, Varsoon.

Mac is his general passive self, but that's not going to help this day.

Sven can easily be any allignment he wants to be. Give me the guilty results I want as a tracker and I'll consider your claim legitimate... Maybe. A miller doesn't usually have a secondary role. It sounds like a bail out of a wagon.

Discredit nation here. I don't like how he sort of attacks orc but not really; it lacks the balls of Varsoon's attack on him.

I'm not a perfect person... There's many things I wish I didn't do. But I continue learning~~~ I never meant to do those things to you!!

I should've said "Both of them are town, so the argument over them bickering over past games is not advancing our cause".

Dismissal of you and mollie in a TvT fight was a strong scumtell for me. Focusing on arguments and not on players, but worse yet the fact he just said that you two were both town instead of actually trying to explain his reasons was scum because it shows he doesn't care about the reads at all, just getting it out there to either discredit one of you or white knight.

Unvote

There was SOMETHING in that last ten pages that made me look back on TD a little differently. (Posts 962 and 970 of his, I believe).

Talk about shitty trajectory. You'd think town AJ would want to explain his reads switch, but NOPE.

I wish this read (On TMT) was easy to explain, but it isn't. His question to post rating is really high and content to post is really low, even when he got relatively active. Reading his iso is like reading his posts for the first time, none of them were memorable. He's flying under the radar flak of Ghost and 2 (and maybe varsoon). His list of reads felt forced, mainly because 9 null reads, not including Jon (who hasn't posted. That's 9 of 18 (Minus two for him and jon) are null to him.

NOW he's trying to explain his reads, cool. This read feels weaker than his TD read because of the way he was pushing his TD read, and the fact the read itself is hard to explain is strange. TMT was an easy read for me, and I thought that AJ was trying to give up a weaker scumpartner to save the giant of the scumteam which i assume is you. But even if that's a wrong assumption, it's strange that he picks out TMT and lets TD go for reasons~

I WANT to call orc scum, but he's just a general AtE player. I dislike his constant use of emotion, but that's more standard. His MS voting at the beginning was awful and his attacking Varsoon was backed off too early when he should've pressed forward. But otherwise, there's been nothing to give me more than casual passing glances of suspicion.

Discrediting orc.

2 is much more interesting. I've liked Buldermar's posting, but fferyllt seems scummy. Fferyllt asks a lot of questions and seems more or less passive and under the radar while Buldermar goes out and tries to push points. Just by their style, Buldermar makes statements to prove points, FF asks questions as a way of hunting, but doesn't push it beyond. Buldermar attacks, no matter how he makes others feel. Surprisingly, when FF comes on and sees tmt's reads, she doesn't mention anything to it in her quote other than it's 'good to see him posting'. The "That's all but a confirmed slot" from FF, even off of meta is bad. Something is rotten in the state of Xenoblade, and I think FF may not be hiding it all that well.

Waffles hard as fuck and kind of postures to distance from you/hop on the wagon.

I get the impression with all these "Lynch this order" lists of UN and his fucking with the town in Posh mafia. Let's not worry about that shit, you get one flip at a time and you move on. Telegraphing every person that you want dead is only going to cause the scum to kill everyone else, but congratulations on accomplishing that. The way you're negotiating lists to lynch feels very scummy. Why worry? Push a reasonable case, get the flip, move on. Nacho, I know for a fact you're smarter than this, but then you go around pretending that this isn't going to affect a scum night kill. What the hell, nacho? I expect town play from you, not that. If I didn't know Braveheart was scum, I'd be voting you for encouraging and not stopping that bullshit.

This is why I'm happy with paranoia as a towntell. Because when it's faked, holy fucking shit does it stand out.

There rest of his posts show a distinct lack of not-tunneling, which definitely isn't normal AJ town. There's also him refusing to work with a single townread which is weird as all hell; literally everyone works with townreads to some extent except for vets that think townreading is for chumps because they are batshit insane.

[Nachomamma8]

12. Metal Sonic
15. Sajin
16. TheReverend Svenskt Stål
18. TiphaineDeath

the "need to sort out list"

[Varsoon]

Good work, Nacho. I agree on most of your points about AJ, although I'm a bit hesitant. Seems like he doesn't play the same way he did in a lot of other games, but I've seen weaker plays/players than him (in this game, that is). I guess I can't really be sold on it until the flip.

[Nachomamma8]

Varsoon is there anything you're not hesitant about? Talk to me about your reads while I'm working on this.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

TD can be town

Nacho where are we lynching today in 2 and Aj I'm sorry I've been busy

[Nachomamma8]

2 still.

[orcinus_theoriginal]

2 still.

Okay

By the way

I liked Sven and I think he's town

And the WIFOM post is getting misrep'd

From my perspective he wrote that and then realized that it could be seen as WIFOM so tagged it on because I mean he doesn't give a shit anymore lol

I like rev too maybe but Sven is town man I don't know how to say this

Okay bye

[²]

Aj

201 Aj agrees with nacho about svenskt, but his vote is elsewhere - on TD. claims vote reason is bad (because scum wouldn't ever claim miller day 1). evidently bad logic is scummy logic. he also dislikes the reason for unvoting - "huh. interesting".

450 Pushes TD lynch with nothing added in the way of case. Tiphaine made 1 post between 201 and 450. in 271 he voted svenskt. No mention of it.

617 First significantly long post. Here he's taking exception to nacho having a town read on TD. Rehashes original case (with links!) and adds the vote for svenskt (new stuff!). Snarks back about my having asked for a case gripes about thread size.

774 This post seems weird to me. Town reads nacho. doesn't like interactions between orcinus and varsoon. winds up with a scum pile consisting of TD, svenskt, varsoon, and orcinus from most to least strongly scum. Town reads 2, B&B, Nacho, BRO, Andrius, GIF. This gave me a town sense when I first read it because he was disagreeing with one "leader" and FoSing another.

783 dings Orcinus for not keeping his vote on varsoon once they kinda sorted each other out. So...it's bad for orcinus to change his mind?

945 excuses, "I'm not a perfect person" for the post that appeared to draw Nacho's attention "town vs town"

1148 backs off TD. Trajectory is sketchy here. Not clear why the vote change (ironic given his case on TD was in part based on poor explanation fro dropping a vote) Town list now "Bro, Andy, Sajin, GIF, Cabd, B&B, Nacho, Rach (In order of strength", scum: "TMT, Ghost, Mac (motive bad, reasoning good... light scum read), Metal sonic, dntfkingcare, possibly 2." town list is now strongly resembling where it looks like Nacho is headed. Switches vote to TMT.

1199 more dissing Orcinus.

1271 explaining reasons for changing mind on TD. This post gives me some town sense, except for the timing.

1291 More about orcinus ("AtE player"). case on us (mostly me). interesting to read. I'm being more aggressive in this game than in earlier games with this hydra partly because I am a known quantity to so many of the players. my usual role prior to b's coursework taking a lot of time was way more in the background than this game. I thought thre was some trajectory here. It seems to always be after the fact. scum list or vote, then reasons when pressed.

1329 He totally misses the the actual - null read, which was where I was at re Aj then.

1395 back to TMT, and more retroactive reasoning.

1675 Nacho's purge lists are...bad...because they would be followed without analysis/revisit/reality check. This is some screwy logic and the whole post is awkward sounding.

1704 more about the purge list and why it is a bad thing.



1430 case on TMT. wants reasons for TMT's read on him changing.


p-edit gah many posts. will look at them later.

[Nachomamma8]

^

Agreed.

Sort of liked this post because it was a connect with someone else who trolls around a lot.

nacho town

freezerguy town

orc town

vassoon town

beautybeast town

mac town

tiphaine scum

sven troll

varsoon still town

cabd quite town

ghostlin leaning town


rach town

sajin leaning town

aj the epic leaning scum

broseidon leaning scum too i guess

I'll give reasons after the posting dies down. 50 pages(1000+ posts) in 72 hours, please no its torturous



2 getting scummier

aj leaning town now

ghostlin town

mac stil town

reverend a+ slip contradiction strong

beast leaning town

andrius town

also good luck with reading john or whoever had to read 50 pages

cabd and guy in freezer very town right now

ok i just iso'd tiphaine

except for #901
the rest of his posts are shit

yep scum

VOTE: TiphaineDeath

TMT is a null-leaning-town

except for his atrocious name

andrius town

broseidon leaning town

ghoslin leaning town

2, nacho varsoon cabd strong town

What I see here is a blatant, blatant lack of opportunism. I think scum in Ms's position would be a *tiny* bit opportunistic, but nope.

[Nachomamma8]

p-edit gah many posts. will look at them later.

a lot of this is summary and not motivation seeking; could you refine that post a little bit?

[Nachomamma8]

24 hours and it is from page 1 to page 31

Damn it.

I skimmed the whole 700 page of wall

god damn 16 pages in 8 hours

I'll give reasons after the posting dies down. 50 pages(1000+ posts) in 72 hours, please no its torturous

3 hours and only just 1 post

we're making progress!

This is definitely the feel of a townie who is struggling to keep up with the thread. I can see scumSonic left behind in thread and annoyed about it, but I'd expect him to use being behind as a bit of an excuse, but he hasn't at all ever. He just complains because the game goes too fast.

[Nachomamma8]

if you had really isod him instead of "hey man isos arent so fast even if its a 5 page children's book with shitton of pictures!"

you'd realise it only takes a minute

yeah i'd get frustrated if i was getting attacked for something like that too

but nacho and cabd makin up shit so yeah

td can go iso himself

and not afraid to attack other people when he feels that it's a bad attack, so yeah i like it.

there's a secret reason that I can't talk about yet, but he'd join the townblock if i could talk about it.

[²]

p-edit gah many posts. will look at them later.

a lot of this is summary and not motivation seeking; could you refine that post a little bit?

His reads started out individual and different from other players at the same time in the thread. he's pushed back at you repeatedly, and has actively dissed Orcinus, who is the other strong voice in the game. I've been reading his reactions to you as town. re orcinus, it seems more like driving a wedge or actively dissing.

The things that stand out to me are that he's had to be pressed each time for reasoning on his votes/read changes. the trajectory is backwards. he's not pushing his votes with reasons.

[Nachomamma8]

What do you think of his interactions with you? I'd certainly call you a strong voice even though we've been hammering at you all game.