Mafiascum.net

Despite her random push on me, I still think Shoshin is town. In fact, that's probably more indicative that she's town, she's just saying whatever she believes without a filter or any fear, even if it's wildly against the consensus.

I'll offer a few reasons to vote Gamma:

1. His vote for Vax wasn't based on scumreading Vax. He even attacked players for voting Vax prior to replacement, which didn't make any sense at all.

2. Gamma's vote was stuck on Vax on D1. This explains why scum felt unable to shift votes in a coordinated way onto a CW - they had someone voting Vax already who couldn't justify leaving the wagon without appearing scummy.

3. Pelican kill comes from Gamma more than anyone else, because Gamma has a lot of experience with Titus & doesn't want to deal with that meta experience coming into play. From a scum POV, Gamma more than anyone wants Pelican out of the game.

4. Gamma's reads don't make any sense. Why he town read Ari? Unclear. Why he town read BEF? Unclear. His recent vote on me is particularly bad because (a) I'm just starting to get in the game more, which is a massive town tell, not a scum tell; (b) Gamma has enough prior experience with me to know that I ask a lot of questions as town, so calling these questions performative doesn't fit at all. Gamma alos knows better than to just lynch me at this point without giving me a chance to find the scum. It just doesn't fit at all.

HBB, if you assume I'm town, what are the possible scum teams at this point?

Shelly, HUB, and Gamma are the three players who most know my meta in this game. These are the players who shouldn't be pushing me at all today, not before at least seeing flips. BoP is a lot more effective to read me than this "performative question" point. How is that even a thing for Gamma to push? It's just opportunism based on a terrible vote from Sam.

In post 1899, Shoshin wrote:

In post 1885, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:the other possibility being maybe like GX was scum ascetic and just changed his claim to commuter because it would get him towncred from shelly but that still seems oddly convoluted to me

I see no reason to believe Gypyx isn't just a scum parallel universe, as I've suggested for a while. Behavior-wise, Gypyx is one of the scummiest players.

this

Gypyx, do you have any thoughts other than more stuff about why you're town?

Gypyx, how do you feel about voting Gamma?

In post 1858, Shoshin wrote:BEF's level of effort & confidence is strongly town indicative. It's a tough read because they're always a scummy townie,

but that's just more reason to be careful about getting baited.

Are you sure they're not just scum. Because they seem like scum to me.
Their play around Tsunami was susp asf.
Their current play sucks if they're town and have you seen their reads list. What about their analysis or thoughts seems like effort to you?
This is what I mean when I say I think you're working backwards, your read of BEF isn't just outside of consensus it reads like bullshit you've conjured up out of thin air to justify an informed perspective.
You even seem to be projecting by throwing the same accusation at HBB when he at least has put some level of evidence on the table that makes some sense.

What does the bolded even mean?

Wow we have exactly one day left to come up with a good wagon

I kinda want to see a townblock in like Shelly/GX/Sam/TGP. I know, that's maybe an against the grain townblock, but I think it works tbh?

In post 1671, TheGoldenParadox wrote:so hub is town
gypyx is town
ydrasse is town
...and that's it. i'm not sure why it's been so difficult to establish a solid townblock this game but i'll read back over and give a readslist in a bit.

for TGP, this post just feels very very town to me. I don't even hate Shelly and TGP adding Ydra to solid townblock even though I'm not sure I'm there yet myself.

Actually rereading the posts that set shelly off on GX, he doesn't actually even directly claim commuter, he just says he 'confirms' ... idk I think scum would definitely maybe throw out a shitpost, see shelly grapple with it, and then roll with the change in claim. That being said I did like his day 1 interaction with me. If I'm wrong in the townblock it could be there but I'm still okay with GX town for now. The point in 1687 also isn't bad although a little wifomy

I do believe sam's claim and tbh I think she's strongly town for it

and shelly I think the convoluted nature of her read on GX is way more likely to come from town, like she's clearly trying to solve the game even if she's doing so in a way that has a minor playstyle clash with me at times.

but I'm having a damn hard time coming up with a good compromise for town tbh

In post 1932, Bell wrote:

In post 1858, Shoshin wrote:BEF's level of effort & confidence is strongly town indicative. It's a tough read because they're always a scummy townie,

but that's just more reason to be careful about getting baited.

Are you sure they're not just scum. Because they seem like scum to me.
Their play around Tsunami was susp asf.
Their current play sucks if they're town and have you seen their reads list. What about their analysis or thoughts seems like effort to you?
This is what I mean when I say I think you're working backwards, your read of BEF isn't just outside of consensus it reads like bullshit you've conjured up out of thin air to justify an informed perspective.
You even seem to be projecting by throwing the same accusation at HBB when he at least has put some level of evidence on the table that makes some sense.

What does the bolded even mean?

No, I'm not sure they aren't scum. There's some evidence they're scum, including the fact that Vax voted Sam over BEF as a potential CW.

I'm skeptical about the idea that Vax was actually trying to build a CW on a townie, or that they made any distinction between BEF or Sam.

BEF's effort is higher than I've seen in numerous other town games they've played, & their reads makes sense when you understand BEF's way of thinking. Like, town reading players who defend you when you're under a lot of pressure makes a lot of sense from town. What don't you understand from BEF's perspective? Is there something specific that you find scummy?

The bolded point above means this: town BEF is mislynch bait , similar to a player like, say, SirCake. These players are scummy-appearing townies, so you need to be careful about lynching them. I make it a point to identify easy mislynch bait in my games & to be very cautious about letting them get lynched unless I'm very confident they're scum.

The idea that I'm informed is laughable. I'm throwing out a lot of theories because I'm quite uncertain about the direction I want to go. I haven't played this past year, other than a game I just finished, so I still don't have the same level of confidence as I used to. I've gone back-and-forth on a lot of things this game, so I don't see how you can argue that I'm working backwards.

What's your take on my Gamma push? (Note: Gamma's been defending BEF as well, and BEF considers Gamma his top townread).

HUB, you should work with me. If you are unsure if my alignment, why not just assume I'm town for today? If you're town, then us working together is going to give us best shot of lynching scum today.

In post 1933, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:I do believe sam's claim and tbh I think she's strongly town for it

The claim is believable, but I'm unsure what it means about alignment at this time. I don't think roles ever indicate alignment in any particular direction, especially when we don't know the setup yet.

Scum obviously knew there was commuting in the game. They have a role that allows them to kill commuters, or Sam's scum. It's either/or.

Sure, but the problem is your gamma case doesn't do much for me

In post 1926, Shoshin wrote:I'll offer a few reasons to vote Gamma:

1. His vote for Vax wasn't based on scumreading Vax. He even attacked players for voting Vax prior to replacement, which didn't make any sense at all.

2. Gamma's vote was stuck on Vax on D1. This explains why scum felt unable to shift votes in a coordinated way onto a CW - they had someone voting Vax already who couldn't justify leaving the wagon without appearing scummy.

3. Pelican kill comes from Gamma more than anyone else, because Gamma has a lot of experience with Titus & doesn't want to deal with that meta experience coming into play. From a scum POV, Gamma more than anyone wants Pelican out of the game.

4. Gamma's reads don't make any sense. Why he town read Ari? Unclear. Why he town read BEF? Unclear. His recent vote on me is particularly bad because (a) I'm just starting to get in the game more, which is a massive town tell, not a scum tell; (b) Gamma has enough prior experience with me to know that I ask a lot of questions as town, so calling these questions performative doesn't fit at all. Gamma alos knows better than to just lynch me at this point without giving me a chance to find the scum. It just doesn't fit at all.

1 is fair, but 2 is conjecture that relies on too many assumptions about gamestate. 3 I... don't get at all? Unless you can show a game where Titus really nailed Gamma or something. 4 I subjectively disagree with; he townreads Ari because of meta BS and is making actually a similar argument about Ari that you're making about BEF in terms of being fadebaity. I also am not sure I buy the idea that gamma would 'know better than to just lynch [you]'... I'm pretty sure Gamma does whatever the hell Gamma feels like doing as either alignment lol

like I guess I can see a world where 1 is enough for you but you should probably go back to focusing on gamma's vax progression then, that's definitely the strongest part of your argument if you do think gamma is scum

Is there any reason to believe boon bank role is town? From what I know about Flavor, he likes to give scum room to try unorthodox strategies, so I don't see why he wouldn't give scum Sam's role. It gives scum a lot flexibility, allowing a roleblock or a protection on partner or self. It also fits the game's theme in some respects -- a scum who creates parallel universes. It's about 50/50, I think.

Sam's role not working introduces chaos & WIFOM that scum traffic in. It's precisely how I'd expect scum to claim the role. And if Sam commuted, she'd know that nobody could prove her claim wrong. It's a WIFOM paradise for scum, which is precisely what Flavor loves as scum. So it just makes sense that our mod gives this role to scum.

In post 1936, Shoshin wrote:

In post 1933, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:I do believe sam's claim and tbh I think she's strongly town for it

The claim is believable, but I'm unsure what it means about alignment at this time. I don't think roles ever indicate alignment in any particular direction, especially when we don't know the setup yet.

For Sam to be scum, Sam would have to have either:
-bluffed, which would maybe require a motion detector or something for scum, to *know* exactly who pelican targeted
OR
-targeted the scum nk with a commute (which makes no sense so we can dismiss)

that leaves us with scenario 1, like, I just don't think sam bets the game unless they already know the town invest structure. otherwise having a watcher confirming pelican went anywhere else in the game n1 basically confirms sam as scum. It just seems like a pointlessly risky and convoluted bluff for scum to push toward on day 2. I think she's just town

In post 1938, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:1 is fair, but 2 is conjecture that relies on too many assumptions about gamestate. 3 I... don't get at all? Unless you can show a game where Titus really nailed Gamma or something. 4 I subjectively disagree with; he townreads Ari because of meta BS and is making actually a similar argument about Ari that you're making about BEF in terms of being fadebaity. I also am not sure I buy the idea that gamma would 'know better than to just lynch [you]'... I'm pretty sure Gamma does whatever the hell Gamma feels like doing as either alignment lol

The 2nd point explains one of this game's mysteries very well. Why wasn't there a CW on D1? You need to explain this in a way that makes sense if you want to find scum.

Titus suspected Gamma through most of D1, while drawing on meta for her read. I think scum Gamma, more than anyone else, would have felt a lot of pressure from Titus, and he would have felt it difficult to tip toe around this. Pelican made this game 100x harder for scum Gamma to play. I don't see Pelican making this game much harder for anyone else. The kill simply makes sense coming from Gamma.

I played a lot of games with Gamma. Gamma has mislynched me before. I think he would know better than to vote me for asking questions. It's like the defining feature of my play.

In post 1940, Shoshin wrote:Is there any reason to believe boon bank role is town? From what I know about Flavor, he likes to give scum room to try unorthodox strategies, so I don't see why he wouldn't give scum Sam's role. It gives scum a lot flexibility, allowing a roleblock or a protection on partner or self. It also fits the game's theme in some respects -- a scum who creates parallel universes. It's about 50/50, I think.

Sam's role not working introduces chaos & WIFOM that scum traffic in. It's precisely how I'd expect scum to claim the role. And if Sam commuted, she'd know that nobody could prove her claim wrong. It's a WIFOM paradise for scum, which is precisely what Flavor loves as scum. So it just makes sense that our mod gives this role to scum.

Right now, I'm going off the assumption that scum have an obviously unclaimed variant role. While it's possible scum would get a variant and a boon bank role, I think it's much more typical for town to get 1 variant and 1 boon role and scum to get 1 variant. That's like the 'default' large boon madness setup. Certainly there can be exceptions and there's no hard reason to think the role is town simply for being an enchantress. I more think sam is town for claiming enchantress and saying she targeted pelican in a manner that seems to require pelican to have self targeted. Nothing about her role so far introduces chaos and wifom, instead she's basically claiming a 'de facto' tracker result on Pelican brief and giving us more information about what happened n1.

In post 1942, Shoshin wrote:Why wasn't there a CW on D1? You need to explain this in a way that makes sense if you want to find scum.

vax's predecessor got angle-shot and vax himself refused to claim for literally no reason

the slot gave scum nothing to work with to deflect the wagon

In post 1941, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:For Sam to be scum, Sam would have to have either:
-bluffed, which would maybe require a motion detector or something for scum, to *know* exactly who pelican targeted
OR
-targeted the scum nk with a commute (which makes no sense so we can dismiss)

No, no. Open your imagination a bit. Scum Sam could have targeted another townie without our knowledge, attempting to roleblock, and because Sam becomes commuter as a result, town can't track Sam. Pelican's role seems like the ONLY counter for catching Sam in a lie, so it makes sense to have town Pelican's role with scum enchantress

In post 1944, Happy Unbirthday Boon wrote:

In post 1942, Shoshin wrote:Why wasn't there a CW on D1? You need to explain this in a way that makes sense if you want to find scum.

vax's predecessor got angle-shot and vax himself refused to claim for literally no reason

the slot gave scum nothing to work with to deflect the wagon

I think better scum could have easily saved Vax. A lot of towniws were against lynching Vax at first (Pelican, Ircher, and assuming you're town, you). Gypyx didn't want to lynch Vax. There was lots of opportunity, yet scum did nothing. This tells me that scum felt stuck voting Vax. Gamma fits this profile the best.

In post 1945, Shoshin wrote:it makes sense to have town Pelican's role with scum enchantress

this is interesting to think about but without more knowledge about the setup I wouldn't necessarily make this leap yet

Let's say Shelly/Gypyx/Sam are town. We both want to include Golden as town. I think Ydrasse/HBB are likely town. I think Bell/BEF are probably town. This leaves who in the poe? Gamma, & Ari. It's a simple solve that makes a lot of sense when you think about it more.

If Sam's actually town enchantress, though, then scum must have a role that kills commuters. I guess I'll just claim to clarify why. I'm also a town parallel universe. This is part of why I suspected Gypyx earlier. Nico didn't commute last night but I will definitely be commuting the rest of this game.

That's three commuters, plus a role that allows for two more town commuters. That's five players that scum can't kill. Five. This doesn't seem plausible.

I also received information last night from someone. I guess that's like a messenger or something. I've ignored it for now. But the fact I received this should prove Nico didn't use role, which itself should prove I'm town.