Not Quite Normal Multiball II (Game Over)

[Save The Dragons]

show me the math

[Well Done]

8/23 = ~.348

[Flavor Leaf]

9/23 with malefactor

[Well Done]

Probability of 1 scum in 4 random people is not 35%

It is if you act like the malefactor is a bad elim, which is what they're talking about

[Save The Dragons]

how is 8/23 taking a random group of 4 people and seeing if at least one of the 4 people is scum

[Well Done]

Are we eliminating a group of 4 people, or 1 person today?

Those are the right numbers if we use the real rules

[Save The Dragons]

omg

that's not the question that's being asked

[Save The Dragons]

you can't be like "2 + 2 = 4 and all other equations are irrelevant"

[Save The Dragons]

if you don't want to read up the context don't bother calling people out

[Flavor Leaf]

It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

ive already found scum, so dont know what you're talking about.

majority of my play has been pushing Catboi.

[butterchurn]

I'm kinda shook that two people seriously thought that I thought we had a 90% chance of eliminating scum today. Do I come across as that dumb?

[Save The Dragons]

im confused about that as well

[Flavor Leaf]

We think that Flavor Leaf is scum and has taken great efforts to establish narratives this game to control the flow of the game. Setting up strong ideas that it is this person vs that person, or that this other person is pocketing people, that scum are covering for Catboi and that mastina is a good elimination (she's not). They feel like they're talking past us and setting up their own version of events for this game. It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

Also, I do this as town, and scum need to find other scum too, so this doesn't really have much base.

I've been waiting to get pushed for a while.

My thoughts on that are it's very possible that both scum teams thought it was possible that i was scum on the other, so this looks probably like scum who's finally trying to stop any momentum I have going.

[Well Done]

omg

that's not the question that's being asked

OK

For your question, the probability of at least 1 anti-town player being within a group of 4 players in this game is 86%

[Well Done]

if you don't want to read up the context don't bother calling people out

Nah

Numbers like 30% and 37.5% were being thrown around

[Save The Dragons]

omg

that's not the question that's being asked

OK

For your question, the probability of at least 1 anti-town player being within a group of 4 players in this game is 86%

so the point is that Flavor leaf in all his "mafia genius" is calling out 4 people as catboi defenders stating that there's definitely 1 scum within them.

i'm trying to point out how ridiculous that call out is. 86% is a high chance that any 4 people with at least 1 being scum

so i don't want him to be like "look at how right i was" if he turns out to be right because he's making a speculation where the odds are on his side

[The Keeper]

i mean there's 9 scum you can be like there's definitely scum in any 4 people and probably hit

90.2% chance of hitting one, I think? It's been a while since I've done that type of math.

I think you picked up Bob's Brain.
We have around a 39% chance to hit a non-town faction.
35% to hit Hushies or Mom's Minions.

I think you misunderstood. I'm surprised you thought I meant the chance of any one person being scum, because obviously that would not be that high. The 90.2% was the chance that any randomly chosen group of 4 has at least 1 scum in it, in this setup.

My bad. you are a bit off though.
Ever get so bored you decide to put the bits of programming you know to use?

Code: Select all

Total samples taken: 1,000,000
Total with Mafia: 562,110 (56.211000%)
Total with Wolf: 561,742 (56.174200%)
Total with Malefactor: 174,533, (17.453300%)
Total with any scum: 887,004, (88.700400%)
Total with hostile scum: 845,744, (84.574400%)

[Well Done]

Flavor Leaf calls anybody who pushes him scum.

[The Keeper]

Thats grabbing samples of 4 as well from this setup with at least 1 of said grouping of Hush, Mom and Beast.

[Save The Dragons]

well done what other scum reads do you have

[The Keeper]

I'm kinda shook that two people seriously thought that I thought we had a 90% chance of eliminating scum today. Do I come across as that dumb?

No, I just found a load of spikes and didn't pick up the Callous trinket so I've taken a lot of damage today and I'm a little disorientated.

I just realised I can use this to find our kill chances...

[Save The Dragons]

i believe we can find something we agree on

[Well Done]

[butterchurn]

I was including all 9 anti-town and using a pool of 22, to not include whoever's perspective it is from. Not very important, I know, but I do believe my math was correct.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Well Done - You wanna act like this is anything different when I know for a fact Dunnstral knows I play this exact way as town. Catboi is doing the same exact thing with the "pushing whoever pushes them" but you chose to ignore it.


Here's where I stand right now.

If you want to act like I haven't given my thoughts on nearly every single slot on the game bar a few, like The Keeper or your slot, it's because I was still needing something more concrete for the both of you.

I would say this is your first major point of action during this.

The fact that it came after my Mastina push and not my Catboi one makes me think there's merit in Mastina/Well Done being on one scum team, then Catboi/Cassowary on the other.

The rest is probably somewhere in my town reads because I don't expect to be correct on Day 1 with all my town reads, i fall in pockets early, and that's okay.

Sword of Ducks
Save The Dragons
Tracer Bullet
MonkeyMan576
Bnuuy

Malcolm
WallFlower
Menalque
Norwegian
Cat Scratch Fever

Toogeloo
MegaZumarill
Enchant
Butterchurn
Tictac
Klick

The Keeper
Well Done
Nashville Dreams

Mastina
cassowary

catboi