Mafiascum.net

In post 1924, Well Done wrote:

In post 1923, Save The Dragons wrote:Probability of 1 scum in 4 random people is not 35%

It is if you act like the malefactor is a bad elim, which is what they're talking about

In post 1916, Well Done wrote:It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

In post 1916, Well Done wrote:We think that Flavor Leaf is scum and has taken great efforts to establish narratives this game to control the flow of the game. Setting up strong ideas that it is this person vs that person, or that this other person is pocketing people, that scum are covering for Catboi and that mastina is a good elimination (she's not). They feel like they're talking past us and setting up their own version of events for this game. It doesn't feel like he is focused on finding and killing scum so much as trying to push narratives today and trying to get people to think about the game in certain ways.

VOTE: Flavor Leaf

In post 1931, Save The Dragons wrote:omg

that's not the question that's being asked

In post 1933, Save The Dragons wrote:if you don't want to read up the context don't bother calling people out

In post 1938, Well Done wrote:

In post 1931, Save The Dragons wrote:omg

that's not the question that's being asked

OK

For your question, the probability of at least 1 anti-town player being within a group of 4 players in this game is 86%

In post 1914, butterchurn wrote:

In post 1911, The Keeper wrote:

In post 1852, butterchurn wrote:

In post 1830, Save The Dragons wrote:i mean there's 9 scum you can be like there's definitely scum in any 4 people and probably hit

90.2% chance of hitting one, I think? It's been a while since I've done that type of math.

I think you picked up Bob's Brain.
We have around a 39% chance to hit a non-town faction.
35% to hit Hushies or Mom's Minions.

I think you misunderstood. I'm surprised you thought I meant the chance of any one person being scum, because obviously that would not be that high. The 90.2% was the chance that any randomly chosen group of 4 has at least 1 scum in it, in this setup.

Total samples taken: 1,000,000
Total with Mafia: 562,110 (56.211000%)
Total with Wolf: 561,742 (56.174200%)
Total with Malefactor: 174,533, (17.453300%)
Total with any scum: 887,004, (88.700400%)
Total with hostile scum: 845,744, (84.574400%)

In post 1935, butterchurn wrote:I'm kinda shook that two people seriously thought that I thought we had a 90% chance of eliminating scum today. Do I come across as that dumb?