Mafiascum.net

In post 1917, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1912, Bell wrote:JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

In post 1920, Bell wrote:Nvm, found it. That’s pretty messed up on Sanae.
Well it’s not like it doesn’t make perfect sense for MALA to be the MiB but as someone mentioned, flavor/alignment.

In post 1908, Frogsterking wrote:My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

In post 1922, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:

In post 1917, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1912, Bell wrote:JF, Penguin, C&g, Taly, Roden.

This is your scum list?

I liked PP's interactions with Dunnstral; it felt aggressive enough to be townie for him

In post 1927, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I just noticed - 7 people scumreading Bell! how does that feel

In post 1933, Frogsterking wrote:Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

In post 1935, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:

In post 1933, Frogsterking wrote:Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

In post 1930, Corwinoid wrote:

In post 1908, Frogsterking wrote:My problem with Dancing Puppets claim is that even if I accept her results are are both true and applicable to any situations within this game, it doesn't provide evidence that her theory about CW has "predictive utility"

This is essentially true, for more reasons than stated. The real problem is the convolution of stats and probability; stating something has happened X% of the time (the statistic) doesn't inherently give it an X% probability of happening unless you're talking about independent

random

events. We're not talking about random events though, and the probability of it being S/S is dependent on the probability of those slots is scum in the first place. So the mistake being made is using a statistic to define a probability that it doesn't actually define.

I had something else to say after that, but got interrupted for inane BS and lost my train of thought.

I also don't like her argument that a scum v scum counterwagon is unlikely for a similar reason, because 2 scum wagons are unlikely to be selected simultaneously by random chance anyway.

I actually don't like this either though. I haven't (and have no intention of) looked at statistics for how likely town is to hunt scum vs. random selection, but my gut intuition is that it would be better than random chance. If that's the case, the odds of town splitting and picking two scum wagons at the same time would probably be higher than expected, as unintuitive as that might seem.

In post 1934, Bell wrote:

In post 1927, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:I just noticed - 7 people scumreading Bell! how does that feel

It makes sense. Colloquial expression: I’m up in their grill trying to find if there’s scum in it, but people think I stole something or are just annoyed.

In post 1613, Cephrir wrote:hey cg, and feel free to ignore this question if the answer is no

are you sure you only get 100 words and not 100 different words

i was just thinking that's what i would have suggested if i saw that post restriction in a setup to make it more fun

In post 1920, Bell wrote:Nvm, found it. That’s pretty messed up on Sanae.
Well it’s not like it doesn’t make perfect sense for MALA to be the MiB but as someone mentioned, flavor/alignment.

In post 1936, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1935, Cat Scratch Fever wrote:

In post 1933, Frogsterking wrote:Okay. Is the kind of sparse content on track for penguin? They seem a little light.

Yeah he's pretty sparse as both alignments.

And you think the Ceph wagon is likely to blow up in smoke?

In post 1643, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Ceph, I don't have too much of an opinion on actually but he's not the scummiest player by any stretch from what I've read.

Frog wagon is bad though

In post 1945, Lukewarm wrote:I plan to use my platform as Confirmed Town to start a new wagon tonight. Buy like, 5 hours from now.

Stay tuned

In post 1944, Frogsterking wrote:1918 and 1930 I appreciate, and I appreciate Cor going into the topic during your time off. My main takeaways are an increased skepticism on Puppets level of motivation to solve in this game, a slight town lean on the Cor slot, the danger of conflating probability with statistics (and I need to review the definition of random events), and the point how scum v scum wagons might be more common than I've been giving them credit for.