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Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:16 am
by acryon
In post 1949, Mathdino wrote: In post 1940, InfernoBrafin wrote:We are a One Shot Double-Day Maker aligned with town. With this, we can create an extra day phase after a lynch. This dayphase will be as long as the time left on the clock at the time of flip, unless it would be less than 7 IRL days, which would make it 7 IRL days. No lynching is an option. We must submit during the day we wish for it to take effect before twilight. We also may not use it during MyLo or LyLo.
I want this today, yes. I'm not comfortable going into the nightphase if A50-town.
There's pretty transparently scum in {Beefster, mastina} tbh. 3 protectives would be silly, even if against a strongman. That's why I'm having them block each other.
That said, for night purposes, I think the optimal move is to do A50 --> acryon and then lynch mastina tomorrow, so we at least get her night action in. There's a very good chance we won't have any kills at all.
Doesn't it make way more sense to use the double-day when we have
less
PRs and
more
information?
We had the plan setup for a reason, because we realized a way we could gain a lot of information by organizing role usage. This approach doesn't make any sense to me. Also if we lynch A50 and he flips town and then lynch me, wer go into the night 6 vs. 3, start the day at 5 vs. 3 and MyLo.
I think the much smarter play is to adjust our plan to protect IB, and use the double-day tomorrow after we've gained significant information from a flip, NK, and multiple investigations.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:21 am
by Mathdino
I'm not protecting a non-investigative. Protecting IB just results in Kthx's or the worst's results going down the drain.
The plan was to use everyone's abilities to force scum to either not take a shot, or get caught in the process.
But the plan was also literally on the condition that A50 flips scum, which we can immediately test for right now. We're in a similarly bad spot tomorrow lynching A50 AND you (with townflips) as we would be just lynching A50-town.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:26 am
by acryon
In post 1951, Mathdino wrote:I'm not protecting a non-investigative. Protecting IB just results in Kthx's or the worst's results going down the drain.
The plan was to use everyone's abilities to force scum to either not take a shot, or get caught in the process.
But the plan was also literally on the condition that A50 flips scum, which we can immediately test for right now. We're in a similarly bad spot tomorrow lynching A50 AND you (with townflips) as we would be just lynching A50-town.
We're not quite in the same spot because we get the extra investigatives. Why would we ever choose to do two lynches in a row in such an uninformed position? There's a reason night-phases are as important for town as they are for scum.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:27 am
by acryon
I understand all of this is self-serving for me since your plan involves lynching me, but I just really do not see the logic in trying a lynch and then running it back with just a single flip and no additional PR info. That feels like town suicide.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:27 am
by Mathdino
the worst can only get innocents, not guilties.
Kthx can only catch people doing the nightkill.
Not_Mafia can only catch people who otherwise would not perform night actions doing the nightkill.
And one of them is probably scum. You're speaking in generalities when I'm speaking within the specifics of the claims we have.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:29 am
by acryon
In post 1954, Mathdino wrote:the worst can only get innocents, not guilties.
Kthx can only catch people doing the nightkill.
Not_Mafia can only catch people who otherwise would not perform night actions doing the nightkill.
And one of them is probably scum. You're speaking in generalities when I'm speaking within the specifics of the claims we have.
Ok ignore the aspect of the PR claims and we are
still
running this day back with the information of just a single flip vs. two flips.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:34 am
by acryon
If we had an IC that could be NK'd then I understand how doing the double-day now makes sense, but we don't. No matter who dies, it helps us find scum, especially if we can protect our investigatives.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:35 am
by Kthxbye
Acryon's REALLY make me want to lynch him first.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:37 am
by acryon
You're also welcome to contribute to the game and explain how you think using the double-day today is best for town.
But forgive me if I'm not pleased with a plan that, best-case scenario gives us an extra day with a single flip and no PR info, and worst-case scenario puts us in MyLo.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:40 am
by Mathdino
We can't protect both the investigatives and also IB.
Best case scenario from your point of view, A50 flips scum and we don't have to check you anymore. FMPOV at least one of you flips scum and we have the game on lock.
Worst case scenario means we still just lynch mastina tomorrow.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:42 am
by Mathdino
Consider that if scum has the ability to produce an extra kill somehow, IB still doesn't get to use his ability tomorrow.
PLUS if IB uses it tomorrow and we lynch town the first time, we're in MyLo already anyway!
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:46 am
by Kthxbye
We confirm IB town for one. Thus, at night, scum have to go after PRs and leave confirmed town alive or leave the PRs alive and go after confirmed town.
Do you not think well hit scum between you and A50?
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:51 am
by Mathdino
Considering he's been avoiding voting A50 all game, I'm guessing the answer is "he doesn't".
Entirely possible the scumteam is literally {A50, acryon, Beefster}.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:54 am
by acryon
In post 1960, Mathdino wrote:Consider that if scum has the ability to produce an extra kill somehow, IB still doesn't get to use his ability tomorrow.
PLUS if IB uses it tomorrow and we lynch town the first time, we're in MyLo already anyway!
To your first point, based on the power-level we've seen so far, it feels incredibly unlikely scum would have an extra kill.
To the second point, here's how I see it. If we protect IB tonight, we actually aren't in MyLo tomorrow.
Double-day today: 1 uninformed lynch, 1 lynch with 1 flip, then MyLo with 3 flips + investigations.
No double-day: 1 uninformed lynch, 1 lynch with 2 flips + investigations, then MyLo with 3 flips + investigations.
So to me, the scenario of protecting him and using double-day tomorrow gives us
2
heavily-informed lynches vs. 1.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:56 am
by Mathdino
The lynches aren't going to be heavily informed because scum will literally just kill one of the investigatives.
I don't understand how you don't see this.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:56 am
by acryon
Let me know if I'm wrong on this because things did get a little confusing as I got into the details, but I think it's right.
Kthxbye wrote:We confirm IB town for one. Thus, at night, scum have to go after PRs and leave confirmed town alive or leave the PRs alive and go after confirmed town.
Do you not think well hit scum between you and A50?
Well I know for a fact on one of those, and I think it's a real possibility we miss on A50 too.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:57 am
by acryon
In post 1964, Mathdino wrote:The lynches aren't going to be heavily informed because scum will literally just kill one of the investigatives.
I don't understand how you don't see this.
They kill one. We protect the others. So we just don't protect someone like N_M who has a weaker investigative.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:58 am
by acryon
Not to mention even if we pretended that we will get ZERO helpful info from our PR's, we still are making more informed lynches in the 2nd scenario because we have more flips.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:59 am
by Mathdino
Look, again, the purpose of the plan isn't to catch scum, it's to force scum to no kill.
That means we need to lynch just 1 scum today, while leaving intact the night actions of:
Beefster/mastina (need to be alive to block each other)
the worst/Kthx/Not_Mafia (need to be alive to produce results)
That means our lynchpool must be {Mathdino, Bujaber, IB (if we doubleday), Marangal, A50, acryon}
So unless you think THE ENTIRE SCUMTEAM is in the 5 that we need alive, pick 2 in the lynchpool and we design the night plan around the hope that we hit scum in one of them.
THE NIGHTPLAN DOESNT WORK IF WE DONT HIT SCUM TODAY THOUGH.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:00 am
by Mathdino
In post 1966, acryon wrote:They kill one. We protect the others. So we just don't protect someone like N_M who has a weaker investigative.
N_M's investigative used correctly is stronger than the worst's.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:00 am
by Kthxbye
Then who would you lynch to for the best possibly of hitting scum?
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:01 am
by Mathdino
In post 1967, acryon wrote:Not to mention even if we pretended that we will get ZERO helpful info from our PR's, we still are making more informed lynches in the 2nd scenario because we have more flips.
The fuck?
Literally all that's gonna happen is scum kill an investigative, we lose that result, and we have a townflip today.
WE STILL HAVE THAT TOWNFLIP TODAY IF WE DOUBLEDAY THOUGH.
VOTE: acryon
IB's role was literally designed to counter acryon's. This should be fairly obvious to everyone.
IB, activate doubleday thanks.
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:04 am
by Kthxbye
I would say there is likely at least one scum in the protect pool and one in the invest pool. Fmpov, that leaves 1 in NM and Worst/1 in CS and Beef.
I'm not willing to lynch any of those today though.
Pedit:
VOTE: acryon
FINALLY!
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:19 am
by Aristophanes
In post 1636, Gamma Emerald wrote:Extra votecount for an extra-special announcement! Aristophanes is officially replacing RadiantCowbells as backup mod, effective immediately.
=D
I should probably ego this shouldn't I!
Happy to be here
Posted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:25 am
by acryon
In post 1971, Mathdino wrote: In post 1967, acryon wrote:Not to mention even if we pretended that we will get ZERO helpful info from our PR's, we still are making more informed lynches in the 2nd scenario because we have more flips.
The fuck?
Literally all that's gonna happen is scum kill an investigative, we lose that result, and we have a townflip today.
WE STILL HAVE THAT TOWNFLIP TODAY IF WE DOUBLEDAY THOUGH.
Except you're wrong. N_M's slot is heavily in question, with many people scumreading him. How is him getting NK'd not a win for town decision-making?
You're acting like all of the PR's we have are conftown. They are not.
Kthxbye wrote:Then who would you lynch to for the best possibly of hitting scum?
Personally C&S or Beefster.