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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:21 pm
by quiet
I want to be clear; I am not trying to set you two against each other in any way. If you say you would vote me, that's fine.
I won't ever be voting outside of prism/floo today, and am pretty much locked on floo at this point, given that floo really hasn't showed a lot of...desperate effort that I would expect out of a town about to lose the game, and given that I already was scumleaning them before the day started, and especially given that I TR the hell out of Prism.
So basically, unless you find a prism+quiet team as high frequency (in which case tell me, because I think I can give some good cases for why that is not the case here), if Prism is scum, I've already lost the game. This means we kinda have to start discussing tmmrw, and ideally I'd like to do that with more voices around.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:25 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1929, Prism wrote:I think what makes flow trap difficult to sort is that he goes from virtually no content to going over the top. I want to know what a flow trap scum looks like, because I suspect they make these same sort of YOLO calls as scum, but the reasoning on the partners was not bad at all nor has their wall analysis.
The bad things about the slot are:
1) Not doing anything at EoD yesterday
2) The one real wall he made was defending floo, and imo it was super lackluster
3) That contradiction on why he voted quiet was bad but also...totally flow trap
Leaning me as town is cool and all but he's got complete freedom here as scum and is absolutely taking advantage of it, which is why I've pushed for him to give more conclusions.
In contrast, even if he's been able to justify them, Spartan's reads have been really,
really
off the mark. I get why he townreads floo in a vacuum now, but me/quiet have given that same level of driving content and good textured analysis. flow trap hasn't given as much, and it's unclear if it's because he's scum, because that's just his personality, or both, but what he has given has been
fine
and the question on flow trap is really just if he's sitting waiting for Spartan to misvote or waiting to push Spartan in 3 way. We've seen flow trap's town game, it does look like this, and he's put in a ton more effort this game.
Like I concur, I think Spartan is scum and it's really up to him to come through and powertown for us here, because flow trap as scum can just sit and either wait for him to misvote, or just bus floo and get Spartan in three way.
I can certainly see both you and quiet as town here, just because i read floo strongly as town doesnt mean that, this was a contributing factor to how i read you and quiet yesterday. my problem is d2 i had more of a sus on most people looking at everyone with squinted eyes, now d3 i can see floos posts have been lackluster and far less, with no real pushes. and see both you quiet and flow trap as all looking town, i guess i would say that with how content rich and influential you and quiet have been you both seem the strongest towns. and from my pov that would mean a flow trap floo scum team, where seeing how quiet reads me vs flow trap, he probably feels confident he can get a vote on me from quiet tomorrow
I was pretty sure that fredrick was going to flip red so when he didnt I kinda feel I need to rethink everyone's positions which has lead me to this. I don't think ive ever made it this far in mafia scum let alone to d4 so im finding it a different experience as far as what i have experienced so far in mafia.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:32 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1949, quiet wrote:@spartian what did you think about the second half of that post, which goes into why I ultimately fall on the prism town, floo scum side?
Are you relatively sold on a flooScum world at this point? Or are you still deciding between the two?
Assume that floo flips scum, and Prism gets shot tonight as conftown. Final 3 are {quiet, spartian, flow}. From the above, you would be voting flow, as you think a flow trap/floo world is more likely than a quiet/floo world?
Sorry for the direct questions, I'm just trying to lock down where your reads are at.
No please dont apologise, I appreciate the direct questions it makes it easer to answer, I wouldn't say sold on flooscum but can see more merit for it at this point based clearly upon what each of them are presenting.
between you and flow, I have felt uneasy with flow trap all game since d1, although i think that might have been more playing style but their reluctance to provide their reads however simple early on did stand out to me, but i can understand why town flow trap might do that. I definitly felt better about your slot from yourself and safebet d1 as appose to flow trap and d2 i dont think flow trap really did too much to make me feel much better about the slot, my concern about your slot was more of you are a strong town looking mafia who is pulling the strings. as far as scum partnership goes, i think it looks much more likely of a floo/flow trap partnership than a floo/quiet one. so to answer your question i think i would be leaning towards flow trap but thats not to say thats a guarentee, i would still want to do more evaluation on your slots.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:38 pm
by quiet
Yeah, I'll be doing plenty of re-evaluation tmmrw, assuming the game gets there and I'm alive for it (which is seeming incredibly likely).
I feel you on the getting this far thing, it's new for me as well. I 100% commit to engaging in good faith with both you and flow trap as I try to sort you two-while I've expressed some suspicion towards your slot today, your positioning towards floo is really strange if you are scum together; I just tend to think a floo+flow trap team kills prism, so the kill on Fairy instead scares me a bit, and something something I think chaos can sometimes be towny something something.
@Flow Trap, if you are around, I'd like you to engage with the same question.
Are you sold on prism town?
In a world where it's {quiet, spartan, flow trap}, how are you feeling?
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:39 pm
by Spartan117
In post 1950, quiet wrote:I want to be clear; I am not trying to set you two against each other in any way. If you say you would vote me, that's fine.
I won't ever be voting outside of prism/floo today, and am pretty much locked on floo at this point, given that floo really hasn't showed a lot of...desperate effort that I would expect out of a town about to lose the game, and given that I already was scumleaning them before the day started, and especially given that I TR the hell out of Prism.
So basically, unless you find a prism+quiet team as high frequency (in which case tell me, because I think I can give some good cases for why that is not the case here), if Prism is scum, I've already lost the game. This means we kinda have to start discussing tmmrw, and ideally I'd like to do that with more voices around.
Yeah thats fine, I feel like at this point with what we have infront of us right now with everyones reads on each others, i feel if floo is town we have already lost, and perhaps its a deflated scumfloo that has given up at this point? (or just trying to give us minimal to no info to influencing sorting their partner as they know they cant end the day sooner themselves idk) i dont know I understand if they are busy i can fully resonate with that, and look forward to any response to the content that is here that they might have. It will always be useful.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:42 pm
by quiet
Yep, and I'll note that I'm not going to be voting until like, 12 hours or so before the deadline, or whatever time that people commit to being online and around, as I'd like to take advantage of the next few days to discuss and try to sort you and flow while Prism is around. So if floo wants to pop in at any time, I'm always happy to hear it, and will do my best to continue engaging in good faith with that slot as well, though that is decently hard for me at this point.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:47 pm
by Prism
I'll be back home in probably like ~2/3 hours, super glad to see you around Spartan, and definitely around to talk when I get in
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:41 pm
by flow trap
In post 1953, quiet wrote:Are you sold on prism town?
In a world where it's {quiet, spartan, flow trap}, how are you feeling?
I almost never locktown, but I'm still 90% sure it's floo over prism atm
I'm definitely leaning Spartan who is a SR over you who is a NR
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:43 pm
by flow trap
In post 1842, flow trap wrote: In post 1708, Prism wrote:While I'm thinking about it, Spartan, you're experienced enough to meta. Review my scumgames. Pull a towngame that isn't Mini Normal 2181 where I hated the table. Extremely stark difference.
It's Elo, you can spare the hour.
Spartan, do this
Spartan, I haven't forgotten this
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:35 pm
by quiet
Tmmrw read from flow trap:
Tmmrw read from spartian:
In post 1952, Spartan117 wrote:between you and flow, I have felt uneasy with flow trap all game since d1, although i think that might have been more playing style but their reluctance to provide their reads however simple early on did stand out to me, but i can understand why town flow trap might do that. I definitly felt better about your slot from yourself and safebet d1 as appose to flow trap and d2 i dont think flow trap really did too much to make me feel much better about the slot, my concern about your slot was more of you are a strong town looking mafia who is pulling the strings. as far as scum partnership goes, i think it looks much more likely of a floo/flow trap partnership than a floo/quiet one. so to answer your question i think i would be leaning towards flow trap but thats not to say thats a guarentee, i would still want to do more evaluation on your slots.
Is there absolutely anything in the world I can do to make this decision easier tmmrw? Because I am very much not looking forward to it. It's starting to look like I might be in the hot seat.
was really hoping one of you would sus me more and turn it into a 1v1 in that direction.
Prism, would you and I giving strong polarized opinions just result in wifom?
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:39 pm
by Prism
Good timing, I'm working on posts atm so give me a sec and I'll circle back.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:43 pm
by Prism
In post 1947, flow trap wrote:I mildly suspect Prism/Quiet/FaC for that NK. FaC seemed new and therefore could’ve eaten the person that suspected them most. Prism’s has already been retracted previously in part 4.
I didn't see this, is it in
1787?
I looked at the 1050s with floo/Spartan and it's basically just...them giving brief back/forth on Frederick, probably some of the lowest effort posting Spartan has had all game. Asking about me was again ??? and coming after the brief Frederick discussion seems like arbitrary SvS discussion about third parties rather than legitimate sorting, especially given that this is right at day start. Might look at their Day 1 interactions in a bit to see how many there were. Spartan is disagreeing with floo so much and still coming out hard town on them is interesting.
Re: The quiet stuff yeah, I did not like the safebet slot at all, so quiet had to put in some work to get me to come around....and still does sometimes, lmao, though I think we're finished now. I hope.
Finally I also definitely agree that Spartan hasn't really held himself to the same standard w/ interrogating his reads against the reads of others, see: the post interrogating quiet about his townreads vs. how much of it he had justified on floo at the time. He's been able to justify it in a vacuum now, but it's still retrospective and it's not clear how the other slots fit into this puzzle.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:44 pm
by Prism
For Spartan, you're saying now that you can see and quiet as town now, even over floo. I've said a lot about why I think this is the case and quiet has gone in some depth too.
Can you explain what's made you lean back the other way towards townreading me? I ask because I've said that I've done the same thing w/r/t quality of analysis and such, but that's different than you working through it. Have you reread my posts at all-what did you think?
On a smaller note, can you elaborate on the two teams you're eliminating with me/flow trap and floo/quiet? I don't think you're wrong, but I'm really curious as to why me/flow trap isn't viable to you while me/quiet is.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:53 pm
by Prism
In post 1959, quiet wrote:Is there absolutely anything in the world I can do to make this decision easier tmmrw? Because I am very much not looking forward to it. It's starting to look like I might be in the hot seat.
was really hoping one of you would sus me more and turn it into a 1v1 in that direction.
Prism, would you and I giving strong polarized opinions just result in wifom?
I think both slots just said they leaned the other was scum over you but if feeling in the hot seat helps you sort I support it. Unless you mean "hot seat" as in the hammering party but the question made me think the opposite.
I think I'm likely getting shot just because...voted mafia in 5 way over doing nothing or pushing flow trap/Spartan, but if you're wondering if you'll get shot over me, given that we're leaning the same way, it's fundamentally going to be more about who they think they can persuade/what pairing has the highest chance of being a dysfunctional mess. I would say to keep in mind that persuasion doesn't have to be active, sometimes doing nothing is the best option (as a hypothetical scum flow trap has shown D2/D3)
Given that we're both leaning the same way right now I'm not sure what you're suggesting with the polarized opinions to begin with outside of us just arbitrarily taking stances and hiding real thoughts which I am not a fan of, entire point of keeping the day going atm is to be able to dialogue over just speedrunning to Day 4.
Also if neither of us get nightkilled, oh boy, please do not. Or do.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:57 pm
by Prism
So if you don't really want to shoot ideas by me the next 2/3 days, I don't think I can really force you, but I think it's worth considering that the chance of me being around tomorrow to run ideas by is very slim.
I'm glad to see you be right, and am again proud of the level of analysis you've shown today and hope you keep it up tomorrow. If the 10% starts seeming more likely to you, let me know if there's any way for me to help.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:58 pm
by quiet
hot seat as in i'm the one having to decide which is lying scum and which is my best town friend forever. It appears to be trending towards me winning/losing the game which, uh, no thanks, make someone else do it.
polarized thing is a possible info play, which works if you and I are both not considered worth pushing. I think it ends up being too wifom-y to be worthwhile, but I wanted to hint at it and see if you wanted to run that.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:58 pm
by flow trap
In post 1961, Prism wrote: In post 1947, flow trap wrote:I mildly suspect Prism/Quiet/FaC for that NK. FaC seemed new and therefore could’ve eaten the person that suspected them most. Prism’s has already been retracted previously in part 4.
I didn't see this, is it in
1787?
I definitely remember typing why, let me check on notes, give me second
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:03 pm
by quiet
In post 1963, Prism wrote:Given that we're both leaning the same way right now I'm not sure what you're suggesting with the polarized opinions to begin with outside of us just arbitrarily taking stances and hiding real thoughts which I am not a fan of, entire point of keeping the day going atm is to be able to dialogue over just speedrunning to Day 4.
this was the thing, and I'm a) not sure how effective it would have been, and b) am not sure I'm capable of doing it well. Theoretically, getting me shot vs you still getting shot could have provided info. Now that it's explicitly called out, it's scrapped
a you + me alive endgame sounds just...let's not do that, pretty please
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:03 pm
by Prism
If it's not obvious my current thoughts on Spartan are too little, too late. It's great that he leans floo now but the "eh maybe I can vote there" and "okay yeah you are just as content rich" does not inspire a ton of confidence. The bulk of his read was about the quality/level of analysis, and he's right that floo had it, and he's right that me/quiet had it...but me/quiet were not top TRs Day 2.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:05 pm
by flow trap
Ah, it was actually part 2
You said you would NK people who aren't going to be shot, and you proved ot, so that's why O said that
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:07 pm
by flow trap
I mean we could do it now with Prism and Floo, it would also catch Spartan off guard
Granted it would also catch you off guard
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:08 pm
by flow trap
um what was that automatic quoting thing
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:10 pm
by quiet
Aw, I'm hot. very kind.
what could we do exactly with Prism + Floo? Don't exactly understand that post.
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:12 pm
by flow trap
Like do a Spartan v I this round instead
Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:13 pm
by Prism
So I'm actually starting to favor ending the day earlier. This is largely just because consensus is universal and I'd rather go for it before anyone changes, and partially because I've gotten most of what I wanted at this point and feel comfortable saying I think it's Spartan. I'm also not really going to be around as much tomorrow except maybe really early/really late, and I don't want deadline scramble take 2, and while I am having a lot of fun when I'm here...I do not know if I can take spending 3+ hours on this game for 3 more nights running in circles, and I want a break/my life back lmao
My checklist before I want the day ending is basically:
-flow trap to finish his notes
-Spartan answer about why I'm town
-I want to more explicitly track flow trap's reads, which is super difficult but I need to bite the bullet. Spartan's are pretty straightforward and he doesn't do much changing, the issue is more in what's not there (floo explanation, good read on me/quiet)
-Probably going to reread quiet one more time because I'm a masochist
-Answer any questions/give feedback on anything anyone else has