Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:10 am
Saudade making it 4-1. Apply same principles = Saudade+Titus+HH/Icon are 2 confirmed impossibilities, and Saudade is unlikely scum with SSS/Titus/Creature
Page 80 of 134
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:11 am
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:34 am
pops making it 4-2 makes something like pops+Cheeky+Vecna/Oversoul/apthet/Gamma virtually impossible. Other unlikely combinations include pops+Oversoul+Vecna/Gamma/apthet & pops+Gamma+apthetIn post 446, popsofctown wrote:VOTE: Vote: Against willing to let the perfect be the enemy of the good here
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:42 am
Am I talking to myself here or is anyone going to comment/discuss. Because I can do this on mt own and save you the trouble and just sum up the conclusions, and then someone like X or Y will ask me to explain a read and I will just let them talk to the hand.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:49 am
Again, weak sauce but this is not how Gamma talks to a scum partner (OK. Maybe I am biased bc I already have Gamma in my town bin, bit still.. )In post 475, Gamma Emerald wrote:This post is like a pancil without lead, it has no point.In post 449, popsofctown wrote:I played One Night Ultimate Werewolf with my roommate and some friends last night and tried to explain that the rulebook says the troublemaker "may" exchange two other player's alignments, so I refused to use the ability since it's anti-town, but I was actually town troublemaker. My roommate said that was very logical but what about something from my heart. I said the odds I was not a werewolf were currently 25% with current gamestate information. I was told once again that that was not from the heart. Then I was mislynched and lost.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 11:56 am
5-2. get to work on what's unlikely.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:17 pm
5-3, and I will even be biased against my own TR on Nero. HeIn post 503, Nero Cain wrote:VOTE: against
I don't really like the idea of vecna as king someone come up with a better plan
can
be stubborn enough to turn down a perfect proposition for his team just because he doesn't like his role and/or even someone else's. This has nothing to do with me hard TRing Nero still. I am just trying to be objective.Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:22 pm
I will treat Oversoul's 515 the same as I treated Nero's vote, meaning I will not use it to clear any combinations that include Oversoul/Jingle. (Am I being too harf on my TRs?)
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:30 pm
5-4, and -again- not knowing Oversoul I will not try to eliminate any combinations here.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:50 pm
I am breaking my "process of elimination" to point out something I've noticed while catching up. momo has been SRing HH all game. He even suggested id RC flipped scum they were next. Yet, not once has actually pushed them for real. It seems as if he has been counting on flipping Titus/Cheeky to clear HH in the future, and here it is so convenient to suggest the scum team to be the 2 "most likely to be lynched slots at the time" + his own scum p for the 1-in-3 rule to apply.In post 601, momo wrote:Titus/Hidden Happiness/CheekyTeeky scum team?
Take this with a grain of salt and put it on the back shelf for now, but I suspect the scum team to be HH+pops+momo from this reread.
@Jingle: If you have the time, would you care to ISO the 3 of them simultaneously and "see if you see what I see"?
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:59 pm
LUV is not scum with HH for going out of his way to suggest the lynch on HH and not on Titus/Cheeky. (Note that I said he's not scum with them, not that he's town. I have already put what I said in my previous post on the back shelf myself)In post 607, Lil Uzi Vert wrote:What if we lynched HH and had someone sort Titus in the hood?
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:23 pm
You're simultaneously a good target for Miller and worthy of a lynch right now actually. If I couldn't read you by day 5 or so without leaning on investigative roles I would feel bad. If the town collectively can't they should probably feel bad (that is a harsh way to put it mafia is hard but I'm communicating the idea that relative to the rest of the playerlist dayplay should be a sufficient and adequate means to read AP)In post 1970, AP wrote: Can you please sum up what made up change your mind about me being worthy of landing Miller to me being worthy of a lynch? I'd appreciate specifics. Thank you.
If cfj PMed me that I'm spontaneously dead in Role Call I, showed me A50's red role pm, then told me he'd let me fire a Publishing Cop shot from the grave N2 as an apology for killing me, I'm not even sure it'd be correct to fire it at Austin Powers because of the opportunity cost of firing it at an illegible slot.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:30 pm
If momo is scum, chances of having the other 2 in this proposed pool are slimmer than the chances he got all 3 scums in there and he is town.In post 609, momo wrote:Sure....In post 608, popsofctown wrote:Yeah. Swap GE and Almost and I'd vote to pass thatIn post 606, Oversoul wrote:I feel like Day5 IC is almost wasted on... almost.
However, that would mean that if we lynch Titus/HH/CT and the game isn't over yet, our next lynch is likely A50 instead of Gamma.
Making likely lynch order Titus/HH/CT/a50/GE
By making a50 IC likely lynch order is
Titus/HH/CT/a50/GE
Obviously this is subject to change and heavily dependent to Titus flipping scum.
Is that the path we want to take.
Because rn, reading the game, I'm pretty sure of those five people, 3 are scum.
If only 2 out of those 5 are scum, D6 becomes MyLo.
Thoughts?
Nut that is not "just it".
The proposal draft he is discussing is:
Applying my theory here gives: momo manipulates LUV in the hood (LUV already said he's not good with hoods iirc)In post 605, momo wrote:Knowing that Vecna, if we reject the current proposal, would you consider proposing this one:In post 603, Vecna wrote:not like its a new thought momo, but yeah it does look like 3/4 in RC/Hh/CT/GE
Gladiator - Gamma Emerald
Inactive - Saudude
D5 IC - Almost50
Inventor - Iconeum
D3 King - popsofctown
Macho - CheekyTeeky
Miller - Vecna
Odd Night Motion Detector - apthet
Neighbor - Lil Uzi Vert
Neighbor- momo
Timid - Hidden Happiness
N1 Universal Backup - Nero Cain
Vanilla - Oversoul
Compulsive Quitter - Titus
Weaker roles go to the suspected scum. Greater chance of passing cause more ppl are likely to be happy with it.
Edit: Yup. 244
So, LUV gets pocketed, Saudade can't get actions, apthet is neutralized through the Rolestop on the scum performing the kill. And they only need to shoot Icon & Nero (not necessarily in that order) to be in total control of the game (or at least that's how it looks for today's list of roles).
There's more that I could say here regarding the mechanics and optimal use of roles, but I feel some of it might be anti-town as it could give scum new ideas.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:33 pm
Making an entire post to prove that a specific 3 person team is impossible doesn't have the minimum byte-value ratio needed to constitute a post.
Preflip pairwise assocs are something I try not to focus on in my playstyle because I feel like they have to be a particularly hot take to be worth the bytes, but they are exactly 11 times more useful than the trios. So stick with those, at least, if you want to do homework.
1981 and 1979 are good posts, I think something on the previous page was a good post too. I'm annoyed. This game needs to move forward a phase. If the 12 days are used it will surely collapse, maybe not literally get abandoned but town win% will plummet.
I am going to VOTE: CheekyTeeky and ask if the unofficial votecount can be used by other players as well to gauge whether we can upgrade the lynch without slowing down the game too hellaciously.
Preflip pairwise assocs are something I try not to focus on in my playstyle because I feel like they have to be a particularly hot take to be worth the bytes, but they are exactly 11 times more useful than the trios. So stick with those, at least, if you want to do homework.
1981 and 1979 are good posts, I think something on the previous page was a good post too. I'm annoyed. This game needs to move forward a phase. If the 12 days are used it will surely collapse, maybe not literally get abandoned but town win% will plummet.
I am going to VOTE: CheekyTeeky and ask if the unofficial votecount can be used by other players as well to gauge whether we can upgrade the lynch without slowing down the game too hellaciously.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:34 pm
Austin do you independently SR momo
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:38 pm
Did you write this yourself or did you hire a typing monkey? (Sorry, A50. You know I still live you.)In post 1986, popsofctown wrote:If cfj PMed me that I'm spontaneously dead in Role Call I, showed me A50's red role pm, then told me he'd let me fire a Publishing Cop shot from the grave N2 as an apology for killing me, I'm not even sure it'd be correct to fire it at Austin Powers because of the opportunity cost of firing it at an illegible slot.
Can you rephrase the quoted in simple English so that it could fit on my head?
P-edit: Yes. Upon a reread I would definitely say momo has a higher than average probability of flipping red. In fact, almost DOUBLE the average.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:43 pm
I mean, just look at 609 FGS. He's lining up FIVE lynches ahead. FIVE. All scum need id 4 mislynches to win this. So, yeah, without amy other association he sure looks like scum trying to manipulate the game in his favor.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:45 pm
Other things that I missed on my first read. How do I go from King or IC to best lynch? Why? What exactly happened in between that changed their mind so drastically?In post 615, Hidden Happiness wrote:What did my hydra partner even do that was so scummy? :thonk:
At the moment I think the inventor should go to ice
Sau gets the Glad
Almost gets the king or IC
Momo gets miller
Gamma gets inactive
Cheeky gets timid
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:48 pm
You are a bad investigate target because a sane-cop shot is scarcely more accurate than reading 5 game days of AP dayplay.
Whereas a sane-cop shot on nero, CT, Iconeum, GE, etc, is considerably higher accuracy than 5 game days of their dayplay.
Whereas a sane-cop shot on nero, CT, Iconeum, GE, etc, is considerably higher accuracy than 5 game days of their dayplay.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:52 pm
Anyway, where was I? Oh, yeah.. momo scum with 2 of Titus/HH/CT/a50/GE is not an option. So, let me go strike out the combinations of those.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:53 pm
So you're claiming you can read me through play in time, but you still want to lynch me on D1. Am I understanding this correctly?In post 1993, popsofctown wrote:You are a bad investigate target because a sane-cop shot is scarcely more accurate than reading 5 game days of AP dayplay.
Whereas a sane-cop shot on nero, CT, Iconeum, GE, etc, is considerably higher accuracy than 5 game days of their dayplay.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 1:57 pm
I'd disagree in my case: I feel like my record will show in late game I very rarely get mislynched as town but I very often fall apart as scum.In post 1993, popsofctown wrote:You are a bad investigate target because a sane-cop shot is scarcely more accurate than reading 5 game days of AP dayplay.
Whereas a sane-cop shot on nero, CT, Iconeum, GE, etc, is considerably higher accuracy than 5 game days of their dayplay.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:00 pm
I sure can't make heads or tails from Titus' confusion about what Compulsive Quitter is. Disregard. it's now 5-5
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:07 pm
Yet another incident of HH is a scum read but let's lynch town so that I can reverse my read on the slot.
Posted: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:26 pm
I keep being asked to express enthusiasm for a compromise. Should I go into politics? Will I get more of this?In post 1995, AP wrote:So you're claiming you can read me through play in time, but you still want to lynch me on D1. Am I understanding this correctly?In post 1993, popsofctown wrote:You are a bad investigate target because a sane-cop shot is scarcely more accurate than reading 5 game days of AP dayplay.
Whereas a sane-cop shot on nero, CT, Iconeum, GE, etc, is considerably higher accuracy than 5 game days of their dayplay.