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Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:32 pm
by Almost50
In post 1414, Menalque wrote:I think I still *want* to lynch Lilith the most because if I’m wrong there I think I have an idea of where I should be looking but ehhhh
I had town pings from her already, and I specifically typed (in my notes file) she was not group scum. Now that we do have the SK outed I think lillith qualifies for a strong TR (not in the top 3 though)
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:36 pm
by Bingle
In post 1972, Almost50 wrote:@Bingle: What is the correct play here? Lynch gobble on D1 or let him live for a day or two?
It’s a Nash equilibrium. Theoretically, optimal play for town would be to lynch him, but the fact that that is the optimal play for town makes it so that sometimes it’s not the optimal play.
If you’re going pure mathematics we probably want to lynch gobbles here somewhere around 80% of the time.
That’s all pretty much useless right now though. I’d rather lynch one of the more contentious slots because I think it will give us a higher information D2. I would entertain lynching gobbles to not have a distraction like gobbles has been D2, but that presumes we’ll continue to have active town voices. At this point though, we really just need to pull a trigger and be done with it.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:38 pm
by Almost50
In post 1416, skitter30 wrote:i would kinda be ok with that but i'm hesitant because there's the potential of a bus driver and i'm a little worried about things turning ugly
like i would be ok with: here's a lynch pool of 3 names and you must shoot one of them. that would drastically lower the possibility of things going awry via bus driver i think because scum wouldn't know who to bus drive
Consider this though: The proposed pool actually contains only 1 scum. Scum simply BD that one with someone else who is not scum and they are guaranteed the kill doesn't hit them.
If we are letting the Turkey live we let him shoot at will, and never say or hint who he would be shooting (he already outed some reads and statements he shouldn't have, like him telling Datisi he won't be shooting there on N1, which was another bad "revelation" if he wants to side by town, and I still think he does)
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:39 pm
by Almost50
Oh, don't end the day just yet. Give me a few more hours (I don't even know how the VC looks like in the "future")
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:42 pm
by Bingle
I think we’re at two L-3 wagons. You’re in no need of rushing, I know that can be hell on the joints.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:43 pm
by Almost50
Oh, and @Bingle: YOU are allowed to speculate on my role at this point. I won't confirm or deny anything, but I would like to know if you picked up on anything I said (so far I have literally claimed/hinted Doctor, Jailer, Tracker, Hider, Commuter, Vig & Gunsmith. This leaves me with a to-do list of Vengeful & Role Cop.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:46 pm
by Almost50
I think the idea of letting gobble live is to have scum considering shooting him before he shoots them. THAT is the one true argument I have for him to live. NOT his shot (even if he sides by Town he is shooting in the dark like a Vigilante would. No guarantees).
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:56 pm
by Almost50
Good luck lynching chemist, since he has left the building.
Now if you still want to lynch
his slot
by the time I'm all caught up, I might as well be calling you "enguinower" from now on.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:58 pm
by Almost50
In post 1460, gobbledygook wrote:Here is the compromise. I will give you my PoE pool, so that you can know who I am aiming at so it isn't surprising.
God. NO! Does anybody have a time machine? I only need to go back like 3 days in time. Doctor Evil? Throw me a bone here.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:05 pm
by Almost50
In post 1477, Bingle wrote:The argument that actually holds weight? I'm willing to make the high risk high reward play that gobbles here performs similarly to tw in that game where tw shot the entire scumteam as SK.
Man, I swear I didn't read this post of yours when I made mine about letting the duck live as SK.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:07 pm
by Almost50
In post 1482, Bingle wrote:Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?
What townslip? I must've missed it.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:10 pm
by Almost50
In post 1485, gobbledygook wrote: In post 1484, Menalque wrote: In post 1482, Bingle wrote:Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?
I think the answer is no, but I've spent the last like 4 games we play together mislynching him so I don't really trust myself on that judgment call.
I kinda think he would I just don’t know if he has. He’s done it twice which has given me some doubts
Is this English
Sowndz lyk Inglish to mi, monsieur dinde
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:12 pm
by Almost50
In post 1487, Bingle wrote:It's not like it's not obvious or anything, but scum PB would know that scum can't actually determine if there's an SK
Oh, that one. I guess I didn't think of it that way.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:38 pm
by Almost50
How certain are you on him? because I have him as null (and with me failing to have as many SRs as I should he 's in my PoE)
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:50 pm
by Almost50
In post 1641, gobbledygook wrote:At any rate, I can’t lolkill anyone because I can’t kill anyone. I’m not actually a serial killer.
I would be shocked if you actually flipped not SK!! I wouldn't have thought (and still don't think) you were the type of player that pulls off such a gambit as either town/scum.
Was this the last if it? Or did you go back to claiming SK next?? I guess I should be reading a few more pages (already close to being all caught up, so I'm pushing for it and refusing to let sleep take over me)
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:52 pm
by Almost50
In post 1644, Blake Belladonna wrote:Chemist1422 is likely town. I suspect he'd have more presence or at least feel more pressure in some way if he was scum. For reference, I recently co-modded a game he was scum in.
Hmmm.. nice take. At least I now understand why you didn't try to push him more.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:00 pm
by Almost50
In post 1674, gobbledygook wrote:
Or do anything...?
Yes it was serious. I am a vt. I was dropping all sorts of crumbs with the hope a scum would catch one of them and kill me. Why would I not at least try to claim vig as SK if I was SK?
Also, it should be obvious by how fast my wagons formed and how no one has done anything since my claim that I’m not group scum.
The question is why would you retract it if your intention was to bait the NK on yourself?
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:21 pm
by Almost50
In post 1753, Menalque wrote:Well, I don’t know about everyone else, but I sure feel pretty good about the scumteam not being (skitter, gobbles, S_S)!
Like, if all 3 claimed scum together now I'd be willing to forfeit the game to them.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:25 pm
by Almost50
In post 1758, Pink Ball wrote:Judge the bird for his actions: he got to L-1 because players who have played with him thought he was a bit off. He's now voting SS, the most suitable counterwagon.
1- I/chemist never voted gobble
2- I never thought he was off
3- Judge is not playing here. Only I and -occasionally- AP are present
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:29 pm
by Almost50
In post 1763, Pink Ball wrote:Hmmm turkey makes a good point saying that he could've gone with the leash thing, so he had to unclaim 'cause he's not really the SK. Unless he's planning to no kill until the end of times. Let's see: town!gobble's reasoning behind the claim and the unclaim after I don't really get it. SK!gobble's reasoning would be to no kill until the opportunity arises. scum!gobble same as town.
So ok gobble could go either way, but I think that SK!gobble unclaiming SK is a brilliant move. SK!gobble can't win if everyone knows he's the SK 'cause he'll eventually die. So the only way to get to endgame, his absolute only course of action, is unclaiming now (because doing it later would get him immediately lynched). I think turkey succumbed to pressure and claimed his role thinking that would save him. SK!gobble would be scumsiding right now, 'cause he won't kill during the night and makes it harder for town to achieve wincon.
So in conclusion, if gobble is SK, he has to be lynched now. And people like skitter trying to make it look like the bad choice is either really wrong or really scummy hurt my tummy.
Don't forget he also said "if we get 3 red flips and the game isn't over" we can lynch him. In a vacuum that is a scum claim (because we can't possibly get 3 red flips with one group scum alive), but I'd still be questioning the sanity of a Mafioso who claimed SK on D1 regardless. It doesn't make any shred of sense to me either (so I'm with skitter on this)
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:32 pm
by Almost50
You know what? call me a fool, call me naive, but I think I'm leaning on buying Turkey goofed up once more that believing him as group scum. It's like 50% VT, 45% SK, and 5% Mafia for me.
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:45 pm
by Menalque
In post 1995, Almost50 wrote:You know what? call me a fool, call me naive, but I think I'm leaning on buying Turkey goofed up once more that believing him as group scum. It's like 50% VT, 45% SK, and 5% Mafia for me.
What do you think of the S_S wagon then?
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:45 pm
by Menalque
Also does the retraction have any impact on your take on Lilith?
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:57 pm
by Menalque
VOTE: punk bill
Posted: Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:58 pm
by Menalque
I may very well be an idiot but I think the monkey is town