Micro 1005: Help Isis, Scholarship Student at Noon

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

yea im gonna stop sorry infy

[Andresvmb]

OK I've skimmed.

VOTE: Ydrasse is good for me rn.

i don’t live in a world yet where hectic doesn’t catch me as scum

It would seem our lady has quickly forgotten of her time performing the Dark Waltz.

I am here, I'm just stupidly lost, I've re-read a couple times to build my reads back up but AAAAAA.

I'm sticking to my Ydrasse vote.

I am here, I'm just stupidly lost, I've re-read a couple times to build my reads back up but AAAAAA.

I'm sticking to my Ydrasse vote.

why do you want to kill Ydrasse?

Lazy scum vibe.

and with that i’ve posted content

See?

i still don’t know why flea thinks i’m scum out of all the ones fae and i have played together

I mean it's possible I'm just not able to read you, but, I know you're an absolute beastie of a town player. I know I'm light on content but you seem just as light and ngl it worries me a touch.

Guys guys guys
does Flea actually play like this as scum?
I think Flea doesn't play like this as scum.
I genuinely don't and I'm not sure they're scum.

I also don't think its Pooky.
Or Andres.
Or Cakez
or Hectic
and it's probably not Infinity
I know it's not me so...

I wouldn't say this is out of my scumrange, but I wouldn't ever play as lazy scum because it's no fun.

it's probably andres + ?

This is so lazy.

Since you and SirCakez both want me dead, I have to think one of you is Scum. Everyone else has re-evaluated and is looking around. If I had run out of options for a push, I would be doing the same thing.

This is WEEEEEIIIIIRRRRD.

See I know activity isn't AI for you, but I'm getting a vibe for how to read you.

That wall of bricks was what I was hoping for honestly.

UNVOTE: Ydrasse

Ngl I'm getting Death Curse feels here, feeling way out of my depth for some reason.

VOTE: Pooky - When the bear is apathetic, the bear is scumz.

Here’s the relevant sequence.

[Andresvmb]

In post 1649, Infinity 324 wrote:
sigh

This is so transparently TvT

Ydrasse is definitely town from this

And this was more recently.

[Andresvmb]

Day 2 Votecount the Second

Ydrasse -----------------
PookyTheMagicalBear -
Andresvmb -------------

---

Not voting-
(expired on 2021-04-29 23:00:00)

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

Ydrasse - Flea the Magician, Andresvmb
PookyTheMagicalBear -  Sha 77
Andresvmb -  SirCakez

Not voting: Ydrasse, tris, Infinity 324, PookyTheMagicalBear, Alisae

And the switch up happens around here when Ydrasse actually has more votes than anyone right. So this is a key moment. Some had already expressed reservations about voting Ydrasse.

[Andresvmb]

So if you’re going to try and spot a Partner for Pooky, it probably isn’t Flea. That’s my take. One of these positions seems far more likely to be Scum distancing and then changing their mind once there’s real danger, versus the other. Particularly when Flea had the option to stay on me (they were already SR’ing me aggressively and trying to sideline me) instead of voting Pooky and making that a real possibility with limited time on that day (unless you think they didn’t want to get caught out of the wagon).

[Andresvmb]

I can’t make sense of this Endgame with Pooky Scum to be totally honest. Seems suicidal. At least you keep Alisae and execute Ydrasse or Flea. Both being around is almost idiotic, and Pooky seems smarter than that to me.

[Andresvmb]

But again, what do I know. I have been just as wrong as everyone else so I’m just giving you my thoughts as I have them.

[Infinity 324]

I will think about it and talk to ydrasse. Fmpov flea basically has to be scum, I can't imagine a world where it's you.

[Andresvmb]

I don’t understand why you want to talk to Ydrasse. You need to make an independent call here. One of them is Scum. You know they’re going to give you a totally biased view. You just want an excuse not to screw up is what it feels like to me.

[Infinity 324]

Interactions really help me sort people, I think I can get good info out of ydrasse based on how she talks to me

[Ydrasse]

i’m ydrasse

i’ll be around when i’m home

[Flea The Magician]

So havent you voted me infinity?

[Flea The Magician]

*why

[Flea The Magician]

Infinity to a lesser degree since they were excluded from the Team that was submitted.

This remains unexplained, btw.

[Infinity 324]

So havent you voted me infinity?

It's a pretty small risk, but I don't see what the reward would be.

[Flea The Magician]

If by PoE I'm the only scum, then it's not a risk is it? It's the only option in a YOLO phase.

[Infinity 324]

There's a pretty obvious reason why I would want to resolve this tomorrow instead of today

[Andresvmb]

Infinity to a lesser degree since they were excluded from the Team that was submitted.

This remains unexplained, btw.

Without knowing any flips, you would think it’s always more likely that a Team Lead is Town, yeah? 6 of 8 for the first one and all that (from the perspective of not being picked). If you start with that assumption (that the first Lead is Town), the more common result is that the Lead picks either no Scum or 1 Scum, but not two to be part of the Team (the odds of picking exactly the 2 Scum when making 5 choices from 7 is what, (2C2)*(5C3)/(7C5) = 0.476, and it never happens in the situation where the other Lead is Scum obviously). For Infinity to be Mafia, you have to be in a situation where both Scum were in the Team and you picked one of the Scum. If the Team has 1 Scum, then we obviously picked Town because the game didn’t end.

So, if we’re excluding someone, and the game is continuing, then it seems to me that you are finding yourself in a universe with 1 Scum in the group and a Town exclusion more often than not. I guess something like that was my mental process. I haven’t calculated the actual exact probability (and it sounds somewhat complicated) but you get the idea. If the Lead is Scum, then it’s a preference, though I still maintain that they likely would to guarantee they don’t lose.

If the Lead is Scum and they picked their Partner to be in the Team, and I’m in the Team, then just randomly you still exclude Town more often than not (and again that’s if both Scum are in the Team).

I guess this shows that outright losing for the Scum is less likely than I expected it to be.

[Andresvmb]

Though now that I think about it, you need to exclude all situations were you haven’t picked any Scum to the Team, because then the game would have ended. Meh it’s too complicated. Somebody I’m sure has done the math and figured out the balance. I don’t have the time.

[Flea The Magician]

so basically it's a WIFOM clear is what I'm getting here, gamblers fallacy kinda comes into it.

[Andresvmb]

It’s not a WIFOM clear - it’s probability. That Team either had 1 Scum or 2. If it had 1 Scum, Infinity is always Town and you’re always Scum (the game didn’t end, so this is required, and we have a 1v1 containing Scum). If it had 2, then the odds that Infinity was Scum are 2/5 from my perspective since I know my alignment. There’s never a situation where Infinity is more likely to be Scum than not. Either they never are, or more likely than not they aren’t. That’s it.

We know the other Team was lead by Town so it remains possible that Ydrasse is Scum and picked their Partner or Ydrasse is Town and picked two Scum. If the latter, both Pooky and Ydrasse have to be Scum from my perspective and this positioning really doesn’t make sense. So like the most logical solve I guess is Ydrasse / Flea for me.

[Andresvmb]

I mean I don’t know if I’m thinking about this properly but I guess that the basics right. People can chime in later and tell me if the thinking works (and I’m sure somebody will), but I don’t think I have any glaring holes in logic there.

[Andresvmb]

And by play Flea I’m literally always voting you.

Infinity has to believe that both Scum were picked to the Team AND that I’m aligned with Pooky or Ydrasse for me to be Scum. I’m obviously never aligned with Ydrasse here (I think any objective person can see that), so it would 100% have to be Pooky. If we execute Ydrasse and they flip Scum, you almost surely know I’m Town here.

[Andresvmb]

Anyway somebody tell me if I’m way off that’s why I’m writing this down.

Outside of that, by play, I want to get Ydrasse. That’s what I want to do.

[Andresvmb]

If the latter, both Pooky and Ydrasse have to be Scum from my perspective and this positioning really doesn’t make sense. So like the most logical solve I guess is Ydrasse / Flea for me.

Sorry this is wrong. If the latter (2 Scum), infinity can be Scum with the Scum in the 1v1.