Mini 1313: Blood Bowl Mafia (Game over)

[Glork]

No, that's not right. Dazzy flips a coin.
Heads, he switches

one of [Glork, Dazzy]

with

one of [Grey, PV]

.
Tails he does nothing.

[Glork]

However, I believe BB will flip scum.

There are currently:
5 Dead protown Gobbos
1 Dead GODFATHER Gobbo

There is literally no point to my role if Trolls are protown.


None of this makes sense from a setup perspective if Trolls are allowed to be protown. I think Grey sensed that I had things just about on lockdown when I asked Dazzy if he could redirect to/from himself, and had to gambit.

[Glork]

Meh, BB flips town, and I'm flipping a coin on vigging you for that post.

I'm perfectly happy to crossvig you at this point.

[Glork]

If you're protown, you're more than welcome to. Wouldn't be the first time I lost a game, and it's not likely to be the last.

I'm playing the numbers. Odds are, BB and you are scum. Not much else I can do at this point.

[Glork]

Grey, what do YOU think the play is today? And what do we do tonight depending on YOUR projected lynchee's flip?

I don't see you working towards a solution. You're just trying to puff out your chest and out-ego me, but I'm not in ego mode. I'm in "Figure this the fuck out so we can actually win" mode.

[Glork]

Wait. Flavor is fucking tech.


Throw out everything I said before.

[Glork]

I have to go for a bit

But

http://warhammer40k.wikia.com/wiki/Nurgle


I'm going to come back to this "Nurgle" thing later.

[Glork]

OK, I'm back. Sorry.

So, this isn't as conclusive as I thought. Unless the scums are all, like... demons and shit.


Maybe BB town, Grey Town, Glork Town, Dazzy town?

[Glork]

Yeah, Grey, you shooting Dazzy is exactly what I was thinking when I asked if he could self-protect.


I'm thinking

Lynch PV
You vig Dazzy
Dazzy redirects [Dazzy, inte]
Glork shoots Ghostlin

Win?

[Glork]

Yeah. I'm p sure that the other scums are, like... "beast of nurgle" and shit. They're fucking monsters.

[Glork]

Oh, right, Yates. Fucking fuck.


Let's wait for those last claims before we start naming names.

Vote count

(7 players alive = 4 to lynch)

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy, Glork, GreyICE, inte, PeregrineV, Yates

Deadline

: Tuesday 24 April 16:00 CET

[Glork]

I am. I just think that Troll is a protown race right now.

[Glork]

Yates, inte having the pogo stick is common knowledge. It's in, like, the opening scene. He's claimed to be a Vanilla Townie, and he happened to get the pogo stick. There's no way he's lying about the pogo stick / captain / position switching thing because it's essentially mod-confirmed.

[Glork]

Nope, I think flavor indicates that my Troll result on BB is a town result. I did some digging into what the minions of "Nurgle" were, and they all appear to be beasts, mutants, demons, etc.

Troll doesn't fit with any of that.

Vote count

(7 players alive = 4 to lynch)

(1) BBmolla - Yates

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy, Glork, GreyICE, inte, PeregrineV

Deadline

: Tuesday 24 April 16:00 CET

[Glork]

Ice - you seriously don't have a leg to stand on. You have already self-incriminated and I can link to your OWN statements to prove why you are scum.

Tell me how it is remotely within the realm of logic that a TROLL is Town in a game full of GOBOS. Please. I can not see past this indisputable fact so educate me as to where my logic is failing.

Hi, have you read ANY of my flavor discussion today? Start here and gogogo.

[Glork]

And yes, my investigations yield just the race. If they told me anything more, I would have claimed it, genius.

[Glork]

From the wiki:

The two Trolls are very useful to their tiny team-mates, but they can be unreliable, and do have a tendency to eat their friends on occasion.

....two trolls...
...useful to team...

...yeah, I'm not lynching BB or GreyICE. They, along with me and Dazzy, are town. The other three players are the remaining scums.


Dazzy, my initial positoin was lineman iirc.

[Glork]

....two trolls...
...useful to team...

I am literally blown away by the stupidity of this statement. Are you allowed to internet without parental supervision?

Son, you've been on MafiaScum for almost six months. I've been here for over six years. Poor trolling really isn't going to convince me that you're protown here. Why don't you go actually build a complete case on the people you want me to vote for?

[Glork]

Is the block flavor sent to everyone who targeted you?

[Glork]

Go ahead and ask. It can't hurt.

I haven't gone back to look for crumbs. Aside from the telling us to MVP vote you and not to worry about it. I assumed that if you were protown, you had a way of protecting yourself last night.

[Glork]

BB, who do you think we should lynch? Why are they scum? What behavior posts/actions have they done that makes them likely to be scum?

[Glork]

It seems to me that inte/Yates have every intention of

And BB/Grey are dead set on lynching... idk. Inte or Yates or PV. I don't even know if they can come to a consensus right now.


Meanwhile, Dazzy (obvtown) and me (obvtown) are sitting here trying to get this all sorted out, while PV is lurking his way through the game.


This is pretty retarded. I want to start seeing arguments that are

based on observation and analysis of Days 1 and 2, not "Troll is town!" "NO U DUM TROLL IS SCUM" "NO U DUMMER I GONNA MAKE FN OF U IN ENDGAME!"

That's not how we win games, people, but it is a great way to lose.

[Glork]

Glork you have a sentence chopped there

Oh, hey, you're right. EVery intention of trying to lynch GreyICE today.

This is what I get for talking in scumchat, watching television, setting up an Ohio Meet thread, and trying to respond to this game all at the same time.


Bedtime. Night, folks.

[Glork]

Yates: Apologies, I merely types the wrong name. However, BBscum strongly implies Greyscum, which is why I got them mixed up when I was typing.

Yates, I've already answered everything you're asking. I am currently inclined to believe that trolls are a protown race, and that the scums are demons/beasts/mutants, etc., based on the flavor I've read about Blood Bowl's goblin and Nurgle teams.


That said, inte's plan sounds entirely sensible. I'm going to have to set aside some serious time to devote to re-reading this game, and just figure all of this out. Because right now, I feel like I could swing in either direction.




Still waiting on PV to deliver a claim. Regardless of the BB-Grey/inte-Yates situation, PV does not look good right now. If it's 3+SK, the SK could very well be PV. :/

[Glork]

Inte and Yates: what motivation do you think GreyScum would have for claiming troll when he did?

[Glork]

Okay.

PV is obviously lying scum. What I'm struggling with is whether he is the SK or whether he is groupscum.

If he is the SK, and BB/Grey are the groupscum, we *probably* lose. Becuase BB can make the factional kill, and Grey can use his SPP to kill someone else. By my count, we'd have 4 alive tomorrow with 2 scums, unless I were to shoot one of them. Basically, Dazzy would have to switch {one of the townies} with {one of the scums}.
If he is the SK and inte/Yates are the groupscum, we win, unless Dazzy switches {one of the Townies} with {one of the scums}.

If PV is groupscum, things get really, really, *really* hairy. I would peg BB as the other groupscum, and Grey as gambiting SK (expecting the scums to shoot him tonight, which is why he went with the off the wall claim).



Over the next couple of days, I'm going to run through possible worst-case scenarios with EVERY single possible lynch (our pool, I think, is PV, BB, one of Inte/Yates). But I'm going to need some time and cooperation to get this figured out.



What I need right now is for EVERY SINGLE PLAYER to post the following statement:
"If I am protown, I agree to follow whatever plan Glork sets for us."

That premise is VITAL to ensure that whatever I come up with gives us the BEST odds of winning, even if you personally disagree with the plan. My most recent game, there was ONE scum remaining out of THIRTEEN players, but the town lost because people started using their roles on their own, rather than following along with the plan that SHOULD have caused a town autowin. I will NEVER allow this to happen again, if I can absolutely help it.

[Glork]

Hypothetically, what would be your reaction if I dropped right now that my race is also actually troll?

I'd be doing exactly what I'm doing now, except I'd have a predisposition towards lynching you for lying to the town.

[Glork]

Grey, any word from the mod on whether your flavor is sent/shared?

[Glork]

QUESTIONS WHICH REQUIRE ANSWERS:

1) Grey, any word on block flavor from the mod?
2) BB, why did you vote for me instead of Grey last night?
3) inte, why did you vote for Tierce instead of Grey last night?
4) Yates, why did you choose not to vote last night?
5) Dazzy, what is the flavor behind how your Bus Drive ability?
6) PV, why did you target Tierce last night?
7) Dazzy, you say you targeted Glork/Majiffy because you felt I was protown and didn't want me killed. So why did you put your SPP vote on Tierce instead? Or why didn't you Bus-Drive her?


N1 nominations are a mess. I'm about 90% confident that Tierce voted for me N1.
Assuming that PV is scum (becuase honestly, why would there be a 1-shot vig, a mechanic that gives us vig kills, and an odd-night Vig?), Tierce was actually LEADING Glork of the known votes. Even if I assume "Tierce voted for Glork," we'd be even. At least one of {Majiffy, pappums, Pizza} voted Glork N1, unless one of our Tierce-voters (Yates or Dazzy) is lying.
Unfortunately, I don't think we can glean any information from N1 SPP votes. Simply put, there are too many unknowns.

N2 nominations... assuming Tierce followed plan and voted for Grey, there's no obvious "player X lied about their N1 vote." Nothing really to glean about N2 nominations either. Taking PV's "MVP vote" out of the equation makes Grey's win even more likely.

[Glork]

No Lynch might actually be the correct play here.

Unless I did my scenarios wrong, I can eat Grey's vig, ensure that both Glork and Dazzy survive, and hopefully induce a crosskill to leave a 4-playe, 1-scum LyLo.

[Glork]

Well, lynch PV would work, too. I'm fairly confident that PV is the SK. Eating flavor is the grain of truth in his claim --> disappears for a method of death. And the SK would have the most vested interest in killing off the Vigilante.

Dazzy would switch one of {Grey/BB} with one of {inte/Yates}. He will RANDOMLY determine which player from each pool he selects..
I would self-protect. No chance of Glork dying here.
Everyone protown would vote Glork. Guaranteed Town SPP.

Grey/BB can't doublekill inte/Yates, because they'd risk a 50/50 shot of shooting themselves.

MOST likely, Grey will wind up saving his SPP, and the scumgroup (whichever pair it is) will kill Dazzy.
Then we'll be in 5p LyLo WITH the added bonus of having PV's flip.



Look over that, everyone, and dissect. I think lynching PV is the play to make. I also require that Glork be on the lynch today, for obvious reasons.

[Glork]

Grey, any word from the mod on whether your flavor is sent/shared?

Nope.

And Glork... I'm town. You know this.

Not taking any chances here.

[Glork]

You're right; no lynch is not the correct play. The plan outlined in 890 is a better decision on every level. There is literally less than a 1% chance that PV is protown, and given where we are right now, lynching scum is definitely preferrable to not lynching scum.


Grey, my 890 assumes that you will NOT use your SPP tonight. I need a promise from you out of this.

[Glork]

In fact, once I get agreement out of Grey and Dazzy (the only power remaining), I'm okay with going forward.

I've triple-checked this plan against all possible scenarios, and it is the correct one.

[Glork]

Alternative plan:

I shoot Inte
You shoot BBmolla

Since this is turning into a 2v2, we'll have one flip from both sides.

Scum can only kill one person. We go into tomorrow with 3 flips, with either you or dazzy alive, worst case scenario.

You shoot inte, I shoot YOU. Didn't you JUST SAY you'd agree with me 100% because you also lost a game because someone wouldn't fall a plan?

AND NOW YOU'RE FUCKING WANTING TO DO YOUR OWN THING INSTEAD OF FOLLOWING THE PLAN I'VE OUTLINED?

Vote count

(7 players alive = 4 to lynch)

(1) BBmolla - Yates

Not voting

: BBmolla, Dazzy, Glork, GreyICE, inte, PeregrineV

Deadline

: Tuesday 24 April 16:00 CET

[Glork]

And my plan doesn't require us to sacrifice any KILLS. (NOT LYNCHES. KILLS.)

Beacuse YOU and I will

BOTH BE ALIVE IN 5P LYLO. IF WE MISLYNCH, WE BOTH KILL ON NIGHT FOUR.

Jesus christ, if you're town you are literally the stupidest motherfucker in the world, Grey. THINK for ONE GODDAMNED SECOND.

[Glork]

Um, Glork.

I'm shooting Inte tonight.

So dazzy better not flop Inte with anyone, because he is dying. He is not town, Glork.

Your plan requires us to basically sacrifice two extra lynches for no gain. Fuck this plan.

so you're not trying to get glork killed at all are you

jesus christ you're so transparent

dazzy swap me with {molla, grey, or pv}

or don't

feel free to make a decision

And you, mister, shut the fuck up right now.

Dazzy and I are the confirmed innocents. He's going to take orders from ME or NOBODY AT ALL.





Grey and inte: I have plenty of reason to suspect that EITHER of you are scum right now. NEITHER of you are in any position to be making demands or decisions on your own.
Grey, I was leaning towards you being town up until you literally said "I agree 100%" and then in your very next post said "No, I'm not going to go with your plan." Breaking setups and forcing scums to make suboptimal decisions is what I do. It's EXACTLY what got my second paragon. It's how I've won COUNTLESS games. And trust me, the plan I have outlined gives us, bar none, the best odds of winning outrignt.



We are lynching PV today.
Glork is protecting himself.
Dazzy is switching one of {BBMolla/GreyICE} with one of {inte/Yates}, and he will flip coins to determine BOTH ends of his target.



Grey, if you're town and want to possibly throw this game on a coinflip, that's YOUR decision. YOU will be the one ridiculed in postgame, because I know EXACTLY what we're going to do after tonight, REGARDLESS of how the kills shake down.

If you're scum, go right ahead and kill tonight. Coinflip is literally the best odds you could possibly hope for.

[Glork]

@Glork- So I'm an SK who claimed odd night vig because....I'm retarded?

Basically. I think you forgot that we already had a Vig, because he died N1 without using his ability. Every part of your claim is convenient, too. You got "roleblocked" when there is no scum roleblocker (they would have blocked/killed me last night). You claim to be odd-night to explain why you didn't kill N2. You claimed a flavor that fits in with the one-liner of flavor I posted about Trolls occasionally eating the gobbos. Every single bit of your claim not only drips with "I'm trying to make this as convenient as possible," but if it's true, it makes for an inherently swingy, broken, retarded game. The odds of you being scum are astronomically high.

[Glork]

By the way, if PV does happen to flip Trollgroupscum, I'm vigging BBMolla tonight. Lynch GreyICE tomorrow if that happens.

[Glork]

And Grey, if you're town and you hold your kill and the scums gambit and DO manage to kill you tonight, then it's confirmed that Yates/inte are the scums and we'll just win outright anyway.

There is literally not ONE scenario you can name where we're not likely to win. I fucking DARE you to find one. Absolute WORST CASE SCENARIO is if you/BB are the scums and take a massive, giant fucking retarded gamble tonight and try for a kill on inte/Yates.

BUT THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU ARE PUSHING FOR, WHICH IS DOING AN EXCELLENT JOB OF CONVINCING ME THAT YOU ARE SCUM.

[Glork]

DAZZY, YOU NEED TO RANDOMLY SELECT ONE OF {BBMolla/GreyICE} AND RANDOMLY SELECT ONE OF {inte/Yates} AS YOUR TARGETS TONIGHT.

EVERYBODY WHO IS PROTOWN: YOU MUST CHOOSE ME AS YOUR MVP VOTE.

Now...

Vote: PV

Someone may hammah when ready. I'm willing to bet the game that this is the right play to make.

[Glork]

Dazzy: to be clear, you're doing the random thing assuming PV flips SK. If he flips GROUPscum (same alignment as Slandaar was), pick GreyICE and randomly one of {inte/Yates}.


Hopefully I've made all of this clear enough.

[Glork]

No, Grey. Stop it. We're going through with my plan.

Unless there is one very specific scumgroup (unlikely) and they risk one massive gambit, we're some 86% to win with this. STOP introducing a level of confusion into night actions. Dazzy might not be around to tell us what he did or did not do, so I can't have ANY doubt as to whether he is following my instructions.

[Glork]

Grey, in Kingmaker Mafia, he last few townies were fairly sure who the last scum was. However, they took some time to test four out of the five remaining players, even though it didn't seem like the obvious play to everyone alive. They did it RIGHT, and that's how we're doing things here.

I realize that from your perspective, the play is completely obvious, but that's not how we are going to approach it. What's frustrating ms right now is that you agreed that I couldset a plan, and then when I took the time to run possible scenarios and came up with a best plan, you keep wanting to do other things just because it doesn't agree with what YOU want.


If PV is the SK, we're going with what I outlined for me/you/Dazzy.
If he is a Troll in Gobbos of Nurgle, I'm shooting BBMolla and you're likely to get lynched tomorrow.
If he's a beast/demon/mutant etc, and GooN, we're going through with the plan I outlined.

End of story.

[Glork]

No that's totes cool.

Glork finds and lynches two scums and wants to vig the other, but his vig for the win disappears because Dazzy is a fucking derp, and a fucking mini where scum accidentally get two nightkills every night even though they're herping it up completely.


Goddammit I hate mafia right now.

[Glork]

This is even WORSE than when I thought it was scumgroup+SK and just no crosskills. This is a fucking TRAVESTY.

[Glork]

Also, Grey, this is why you should have just lynched the cop-investigated Troll. No fucking clue what you were thinking, but regardless of your alignment, going after BBMolla should have been the play.

[Glork]

I meant after Pere died. :/

Whatever. Secret millers is bastard moderation, and giving a scumgroup two nightkills in a mini is fucking terrible design.


We deserved this one and got right fucked up the ass.

[Glork]

Wait wait wait wait.

So not only did you have two kills per night effectively.

But our Vig attempt on you was a complete waste, too?

And we had NO protective roles outside of the SPP system, which we were already using on failed vig attempts we couldn't see coming?




Remind me never to play in a Johoohno game again. This is beyond atrocious.

[Glork]

"Unpreditably lucky" isn't a factor.

ANY game in which the town mislynches D1 (standard) then lynches correctly D2, D3, and vigges the last scum N3...

should NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER,

EVER

lose. Ever.

[Glork]

Grey, it does make sense for you to come out as a troll of you're the other groupscum and BB were a bulletproof SK. Because you could be night killed and he could not. That's why most of the town wound up suspecting you.

[Glork]

Grey, it does make sense for you to come out as a troll of you're the other groupscum and BB were a bulletproof SK. Because you could be night killed and he could not. That's why most of the town wound up suspecting you.

So I'd come out to save a bulletproof SK from lynch - the same bulletproof SK I would NEED to lynch to end the game.

What is this I don't even

No, the BP thing was a hindsight matter. At the time, all we knew was that BB was a troll.


There were 7 alive. Lynch BB, 1 nightkill, 5 alive. You/Pere get lynched, we win.
Lynch townie, you kill BB, BB kills elsewhere, 4 alive. You/Pere win.

That was the logic behind claiming. You were going for a home run ball by throwing a monkey wrench into the "Lynch BB, no questions asked" plan.

[Glork]

Grey, it does make sense for you to come out as a troll of you're the other groupscum and BB were a bulletproof SK. Because you could be night killed and he could not. That's why most of the town wound up suspecting you.

So I'd come out to save a bulletproof SK from lynch - the same bulletproof SK I would NEED to lynch to end the game.

What is this I don't even

No, the BP thing was a hindsight matter. At the time, all we knew was that BB was a troll.


There were 7 alive. Lynch BB, 1 nightkill, 5 alive. You/Pere get lynched, we win.
Lynch townie, you kill BB, BB kills elsewhere, 4 alive. You/Pere win.

That was the logic behind claiming. You were going for a home run ball by throwing a monkey wrench into the "Lynch BB, no questions asked" plan.

So all this revolved around there being a 4 man scumteam, since SLANDAAR HAD ALREADY FLIPPED SCUM.

Uh. No? It revolved around a Slaandar/PereV/GreyICE scumgroup, with BBMolla as the SK.

I thought you were trying to get us to lynch a townie (inte) so that you could win with 2 scums out of 4 players alive after N3.

[Glork]

^ This is a pretty good assessment of why the balance was completely off. Even the scums were acknowleding that the town did everything they could and probably deserved to win, but got dumped on by an imbalanced setup.

[Glork]

It was in fact that which led Glork to BBmolla in the first place.

You have that backwards. I suspected BBMolla was busing Slandaar, and wanted a guilty to confirm it. Suspicion led to the cop result, not the other way around.

But I backed off because of the Troll/Miller claim. Your setup is exactly what made the cop useless.

[Glork]

Still, the kills were heavily limited (and Grey exaggerating them to three doesn't make them that many successful ones.

ONE SINGLE SCUMGROUP

made SEVEN kills in FIVE nights. How the FUCK can you call kills "limited"?

It's apparent that you have absolutely NO idea what you're talking about, or how to balance a game.

[Glork]

He was agreeing with you. :/