Micro 152 - BSG Mafia (Galactica Survives?)

[fferyllt]

This was the post where I thought it sounded like he knew I was town. I can see myself posting something similar to someone. And I can't imagine not putting the phrase "If you are town" in there somewhere.

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

And here's his counter-argument. It boils down to "statistically you're probably town". That seems weak.

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

It's carefully worded, but there's an assumption in here that I'd be moved by the argument that self-voting would deprive town of information.

I think that's assumption that I'm town.

What the fuck is wrong with you? Even if you're by far the scummiest person in this game it would be extreme if I thought that you'd be more likely to flip scum than town statistically speaking. You know this, and you know I know this, but you conveniently ignore it because you also know that most people just think in absolute terms of "either scum or town", i.e., many people mistakingly think that because someone is more scummy than someone else on day one, that person is also more likely to be scum than town.

That being said, I'm pointing out that you're acting inherently anti-town which, should you turn out to be town, would be something in your game that you can improve on.

[fferyllt]

In fact, I unvoted expecting to be today's lynch though I am constitutionally unable to just accept that and not fight it even when I think my cardflip sooner rather than later would help town.

This is some elaborate fence-sitting that's advantageous for you as scum because it allows you to act pro-town by advocating your own lynch for the better of town while still in reality fighting it.

I don't know what I'll do when push comes to shove. I have self-voted in the past when I thought my situation or my role indicated it was better for town if I were out of the game. In one case, I did that and it probably lost the game for town two days later, so I'm more cautious now than in the past. No matter how snake-bitten I may appear to be as town. As scum, I have tactically self-voted a few times with no intention of keeping my vote on myself. My self-voting prior to when it matters won't tell much about my alignment.

A majority-lynch mechanic is different from what I'm used to, and self-votes have a totally different impact from the type of games I've played elsewhere.

[fferyllt]

This was the post where I thought it sounded like he knew I was town. I can see myself posting something similar to someone. And I can't imagine not putting the phrase "If you are town" in there somewhere.

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

And here's his counter-argument. It boils down to "statistically you're probably town". That seems weak.

If someone doesn't beat me to it, I'll self-vote after I have one last chance to interact with buldermar. If I'm wrong about him, I'll retract my scum read before I flip.

I don't often lecture you, but in this situation I'd say that self-voting is considerably anti-town as you effectively deprive town some information that could have been obtained from vote analysis.

I'm off to bed soon, but I'll respond to every question you may have as detailed as possible when I wake up.

It's carefully worded, but there's an assumption in here that I'd be moved by the argument that self-voting would deprive town of information.

I think that's assumption that I'm town.

What the fuck is wrong with you? Even if you're by far the scummiest person in this game it would be extreme if I thought that you'd be more likely to flip scum than town statistically speaking. You know this, and you know I know this, but you conveniently ignore it because you also know that most people just think in absolute terms of "either scum or town", i.e., many people mistakingly think that because someone is more scummy than someone else on day one, that person is also more likely to be scum than town.

That being said, I'm pointing out that you're acting inherently anti-town which, should you turn out to be town, would be something in your game that you can improve on.

No, it does not "boil down" to that. Read the last sentence.

I think discussing this with you is a waste of time at this point. You're obviously going to insist in your perspective if you're scum and if you're town you really should have read me clearly as town by now.

Yes, in your second post after I called you out on the implicit assumption in your first post, you said "should you turn out to be town".

I have to go back through this. It's at the root of my uncertainties about you. After I got past the WKing I still had this, along with your apparently not getting that a Kara Thrace safe claim should not have been wasted on a VT role claim. In one post, it looked like you were even arguing that I'd claimed a power role.

[fferyllt]

In fact, I unvoted expecting to be today's lynch though I am constitutionally unable to just accept that and not fight it even when I think my cardflip sooner rather than later would help town.

This is some elaborate fence-sitting that's advantageous for you as scum because it allows you to act pro-town by advocating your own lynch for the better of town while still in reality fighting it.

I don't know what I'll do when push comes to shove. I have self-voted in the past when I thought my situation or my role indicated it was better for town if I were out of the game. In one case, I did that and it probably lost the game for town two days later, so I'm more cautious now than in the past. No matter how snake-bitten I may appear to be as town. As scum, I have tactically self-voted a few times with no intention of keeping my vote on myself. My self-voting prior to when it matters won't tell much about my alignment.

A majority-lynch mechanic is different from what I'm used to, and self-votes have a totally different impact from the type of games I've played elsewhere.

Okay, I'll ask you so that we get a clear answer. If you're getting to L-1 and there is no appropriate counter-wagon, and if both of orc and I agrees that you should be todays lynch, would you self-vote? Yes or no.

Right now, your agreement would be irrelevant. If orcinus thinks I should self-hammer and I think I should self-hammer I absolutely will. If he doesn't and I think I should, I don't know what I'll do, yet.

[fferyllt]

I'm trying to search for other games where you've lectured someone about self-voting. I keep getting a gateway time-out. :/

[fferyllt]

No, it does not "boil down" to that. Read the last sentence.

I think discussing this with you is a waste of time at this point. You're obviously going to insist in your perspective if you're scum and if you're town you really should have read me clearly as town by now.

Why would I have dropped it in the first place if I were scum? You can try to handwave away that I got you to L-2 in a hurry, with at least one other player having indicated they were leaning scum on you. But, there is hard evidence of that in the game thread. It was a conscious decision on my part that would increase the likelihood of my lynch.

[fferyllt]

Fascinating - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 3#p4651393

There's a time for self-voting - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 5#p4366255

An analysis of a self-vote that was rescinded - http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4290177

I was hoping to find a a game where buldermar emphaticly told someone else that self-voting is anti-town, and to see that he didn't make any sort of "If you are town" qualification. I didn't find that. His argument to me about not self-voting doesn't quite line up with the above posts, though.

[fferyllt]

Children, be nice.

I am being nice.

[fferyllt]

No, it does not "boil down" to that. Read the last sentence.

I think discussing this with you is a waste of time at this point. You're obviously going to insist in your perspective if you're scum and if you're town you really should have read me clearly as town by now.

Why would I have dropped it in the first place if I were scum? You can try to handwave away that I got you to L-2 in a hurry, with at least one other player having indicated they were leaning scum on you. But, there is hard evidence of that in the game thread. It was a conscious decision on my part that would increase the likelihood of my lynch.

Also, I could say exactly the same about you - that you're going to insist that your interpretations are correct if you are scum, and that you should at least have some doubts about your read if you are town.

This is really the first game we've ever played where we've engaged anywhere near this much. Maybe it just takes a good serious shitfest of a game to work things out. If so, I hope one game is enough. In one case it took almost a year's worth of games before one player and I got past the day 1 sledge phase.

[fferyllt]

What are you doing then?

[fferyllt]

That's irrelevant crap. Are you reading the game thread? It looks kinda like you just skim a page or two and post something that vaguely ties to the most recent discussion.

[fferyllt]

Close, I read until page ten, and about the last 5 pages.

The rest is a grey area.

Seems legit.

Yeah it's a great basis for putting votes down. Not.

[fferyllt]

SD has posted some genuinely hinky stuff. I'm interested in reading what he posts tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

I mean calendar tomorrow. SD said he'd be back to reply to my posts then.

[fferyllt]

Yes, in your second post after I called you out on the implicit assumption in your first post, you said "should you turn out to be town".

I have to go back through this. It's at the root of my uncertainties about you. After I got past the WKing I still had this, along with your apparently not getting that a Kara Thrace safe claim should not have been wasted on a VT role claim. In one post, it looked like you were even arguing that I'd claimed a power role.

I don't have any flavor knowledge at all, but I know on theoretical grounds alone that you can't use it as an argument for being town. I believe I've pointed out why at least three times already - don't make me do it again.

Please do point out in what post I was arguing that you had claimed a power role and additionally, regardless of whether or not you succesfully pull such post out of your little scum-hat, explain to me why it should be indicative of alignment in the first place.

This one.

Ofc you'd use a great fake power role claim if it would keep you alive -

which is exactly what you're attempting to make it do right now.

Will read 309 tomorrow.

[fferyllt]

CAN WE PLEASE JUST LYNCH ff ALREADY?

This post looks fed up and frustrated.

That's exactly how I feel as well.

But, it does at least look like town frustration. I don't think I've ever seen someone this certain I'm scum and wrong before. Well, maybe once, but the guy had a lot of issues.

orc, vote me please, and I'll hammer.

[fferyllt]

Lynch SD next, please.

and sort pitoli.

[fferyllt]

Yes, in your second post after I called you out on the implicit assumption in your first post, you said "should you turn out to be town".

I have to go back through this. It's at the root of my uncertainties about you. After I got past the WKing I still had this, along with your apparently not getting that a Kara Thrace safe claim should not have been wasted on a VT role claim. In one post, it looked like you were even arguing that I'd claimed a power role.

I don't have any flavor knowledge at all, but I know on theoretical grounds alone that you can't use it as an argument for being town. I believe I've pointed out why at least three times already - don't make me do it again.

Please do point out in what post I was arguing that you had claimed a power role and additionally, regardless of whether or not you succesfully pull such post out of your little scum-hat, explain to me why it should be indicative of alignment in the first place.

This one.

Ofc you'd use a great fake power role claim if it would keep you alive -

which is exactly what you're attempting to make it do right now.

Will read 309 tomorrow.

I'll admit that was phrased poorly, but given the context it should be quite obvious to you that what I meant is that you'd ofc use a great fake flavor role claim that's commonly attributed a power role if it would keep you alive.

And here you make the argument again that I would intentionally do something bad for my team if I were scum.

The first time we went through all this, that argument on your part pretty much convinced me that you had to be scum because it's not predicated on any sort of respect for my scum game. It's contemptuous of it. And it's in stark contrast to your initial arguments that I'm too valuable to d1 lynch because of my town game.

Townie outrage about being misread. I guess we both have it.

[fferyllt]

I have to go back through this.

It's at the root of my uncertainties about you. After I got past the WKing I still had this, along with your apparently not getting that a Kara Thrace safe claim should not have been wasted on a VT role claim. In one post, it looked like you were even arguing that I'd claimed a power role.

Second time's the charm.

[fferyllt]

Not it all. It's resignation.

[fferyllt]

VOTE: fferyllt

SD next please.

[fferyllt]

Town.

It's not quite 4 am my time. If there's anything you want to talk about before nightfall, make it quick.

[fferyllt]

He and pitoli have stayed well clear of my bandwagon. Plus all the other stuff involving his absurd lists.

I think the earlier competing wagons were probably town vs town.

I don't know that I can really read him either. I think so but it takes a test-to-destruction to get there. The way he flipped out when I went back through the stuff that had made me think he was scum earlier does feel like town outrage.

[fferyllt]

Syryana gives me a town vibe.

[fferyllt]

I don't know that I can really read him either. I think so but it takes a test-to-destruction to get there. The way he flipped out when I went back through the stuff that had made me think he was scum earlier does feel like town outrage.

This was about buldermar.

[fferyllt]

Okay

How dangerous is keeping Buldermar alive if he were scum? How good is his town game?

Very dangerous. That's why I could not leave the question alone.

[quote[How strong is your town vibe on Syryana?[/quote]
Pretty strong. I wouldn't take it to the bank, and if I were alive day 2 and beyond I'd reevaluate at the drop of a hat if there were any reason to.

[fferyllt]

No more time to sort Deltabacon is my biggest regret about self-hammering.

I think town's power roles are going to have to do something about one or both of Nero/Lurker.

[fferyllt]

Town:

orcinus
Syryana

Unsure leaning town

buldermar

Unsure leaning scum

pitoli

Scum

SD

Who the fuck knows

Lurker
Nero
Deltabacon

[fferyllt]

I feel we could've worked alongside each other better in the game.

Me too.

Good luck.

I look forward to playing another game with you.

[fferyllt]

Funny that buldermar disappeared. I thought he'd have a few last questions for me too.

[fferyllt]

We're going to need one more vote once she doesn't hammer, but it should be obvious for even the retards in this game that she's scum at that point.

Quoting for posterity.

If he's scum and convinced me to take myself out of the game, it will color every game interaction we have until the heat death of the universe.

[fferyllt]

I still think you either don't or pretend to not understand the point I am trying to convey. I'd go as far as stating that because I'm making the point I'm making, I must think highly of your scum game.

If this is honest, then you have no idea what the parameters of my scum game are.

[fferyllt]

I'm trying to think of a town motivation for misrepresenting the content in that manner and I really can't.

I didn't misrepresent them IMO. I found them and linked them for players to read and make up their own minds if your advice to me was in line with your prior discussions.

So, should I have taken your earlier advice about self-hammering? Or should I have done what I said I would and you said I wouldn't - self hammer if orc agreed I should go?

[fferyllt]

Given that you can be reasonably sure now that you are talking to town-me, is there anything about the game from this point forward that you want to talk about?

[fferyllt]

We're going to need one more vote once she doesn't hammer, but it should be obvious for even the retards in this game that she's scum at that point.

Quoting for posterity.

If he's scum and convinced me to take myself out of the game, it will color every game interaction we have until the heat death of the universe.

I can't believe you're still seriously entertaining the idea of me being scum, but whatever.

I'm still flabbergasted and incredulous that town-you could misread me this badly, to the point that nothing I've posted since I put a vote on you struck you as coming from a town PoV.

[fferyllt]

There's a time for self-voting - viewtopic.php?p=4366255#p4366255

Read this quote carefully in addition to the one below from the same game:

buldermar, why so much corner case theory talk and no vote?

Your statement entails self-voting being optimal under certain circumstances. Since this is wrong for this setup, me neglecting pointing it out would lead to a net utility loss from the town perspective relative to if I do point it out. I sincerely disagree that pointing something out that would lead to a decreasement in the odds of town winning if omitted qualifies as corner case theory talk.

As for the lack of vote, that's a simple one: I'm convinced that I can obtain more information during this day and thus make a more qualified estimate of peoples alignment before voting. The difference between voting person A before voting person B who gets lynched

and

not voting person A before voting person B who gets lynched is negligible when voting person A is unreasoned (as is the case with random votes). In other words, I simply prefer to postpone voting until I have preferences regarding who to lynch (i.e. until I have some information to base my vote on).

You might object that the random votes themselves is a valid method to obtain such information, and that's in my opinion reasonable. However, I think that discussion without the random votes is an equally valid and viable method.

FWIW I'd like to be proven wrong as the general consensus seems to be that RVS is a necessity.

Do you really think I am arguing that there is a place for self-voting?

You argued that it was "wrong for this setup", not that it was wrong, period. But, I'll grant that my label overstated what I'd gathered from this discussion.

[fferyllt]

I'm very apprehensive of how quickly we got to L-1 on ffery. The last few pages have been weird honestly and hard for me to read a la ffery's and buldermar's new cases. I like that buldermar at least unvoted whilst not backing down from his position, that makes him seem more town to me than anything else he's done.

Lurker and Nero just seem opportunistic to me, I'd be willing to lynch either of them until they become more open with their reads/reactions to the last couple of pages.

@Sryrana - what made you change your vote so quickly?

@Ffery - I feel like town should fight harder against their own mislynch since you're at least confirmed to yourself, no matter how great your doubts are on another town-looking mislynch. Do you think your lynch would provide the town with the most information?

Never watched BSG so I really don't get the references/significance of claiming Kara, I think that particular point is moot.

I think in general you are right about fighting mislynch. If I am all but certain to be mislynched sooner or later, then sooner may be better, especially if there's something worthwhile to be learned from the bandwagon.

LOL you pretty much confirmed yourself as scum in this post. If you were town and actually considered me scum you'd think that succesfully getting me lynched would close to confirm you as being town. However, if you're scum who pretends to be thinking that I'm scum but actually knows that I'm not you'd make

exactly

this kind of slip, knowing that

even if

you get me lynched, you'll be up next once I flip.

Please attempt to explain yourself out of this one.

VOTE: ff

Yep, I wrote that in the middle of my first "what if I'm wrong?" brainstorm.

[fferyllt]

Fery, were there any connections between players that you picked up on that'd be good to check tomorrow? Anything from subtle to blatant

The main thing I picked up was that neither you nor SD had a scum read on me. It looked like distancing.

You could argue that Lurker also distanced but he's completely disconnected from the game afaict.

[fferyllt]

Town:
orcinus
Syryana

How certain are you of these? I only feel very certain about orc, but I agree that Syr is the second most town-looking player.

Less sure about Syryana, but stronger than any other player besides orcinus.

[fferyllt]

My hackles raise at what I perceive as reverse cheerleading, but the twilight mechanic makes it almost inevitable that there will be posts like that. And I've been surprised how many players reverse-cheerlead in recent games.

I learned the concept of cheerleading from the mafiascum wiki years ago. I'm surprised that so many people do it and there aren't more repercussions.

[fferyllt]

Why would buldermar act like that after you turned town?

There's absolutely no point to continue acting like town for such an extended period of time.

Why why why where is the motivation

Scum defending a lynch.


Fuck.

He's obsessive about being right. Or in this case, about being justified in being wrong - i.e., it's my fault entirely that he thought I was scum. It pings for me too, but I have seen him argue long past when there's an utility in continuing in other games. It wasn't a twilight situation, though.

[fferyllt]

My hackles raise at what I perceive as reverse cheerleading, but the twilight mechanic makes it almost inevitable that there will be posts like that. And I've been surprised how many players reverse-cheerlead in recent games.

Could you explain, I'm not familiar with the term, and can't find it on google.

Ah fuck gonna be late to class...

Classic cheerleading is things like reacting to a daybreak post with something like "good work doc", "awesome vig work" etc.* Reverse cheerleading is being vocal about being sad or disappointed by something going wrong for town.

*however sometimes a town night action has unexpected and game-changing results. In cases like that, sometimes a town player will do something that looks "cheerleader"-like. Like most tells, context matters and it's just one piece of the puzzle about a player.

[fferyllt]

Ugh but then

The WKing is too blatant


Did Buldermar and I ever call you ideal lynch at the same time

I don't think so.

[fferyllt]

Why would buldermar act like that after you turned town?

There's absolutely no point to continue acting like town for such an extended period of time.

Why why why where is the motivation

Scum defending a lynch.


Fuck.

He's obsessive about being right. Or in this case, about being justified in being wrong - i.e., it's my fault entirely that he thought I was scum. It pings for me too, but I have seen him argue long past when there's an utility in continuing in other games. It wasn't a twilight situation, though.

I don't feel like this is entirely fair. I pointed out where I think I made a critical mistake in my analysis. I do think that much of my skepticism regarding you stems from your sudden change in opinion with respect to me. I'm not insisting that it's entirely your fault that I thought you were scum.

24 hour game days do not lend themselves to deliberateness. My play-style is abrupt, abrasive and mercurial because that's what it takes to sort someone quickly. Apply pressure, test, move on for now if the reaction looks town. You were the player I felt was hardest to read and most dangerous if scum. That made you a priority, and it preloaded a ton of suspicion and paranoia about you. Next game, it may not take as much to convince me because this game becomes a baseline.

One thing I've seen over and over again is that my test/sort process tends to freak players out, and the people I go after for a while often come out the other end convinced I have to be scum, esp if they have little game experience with me.

You really haven't seen this aspect of my game elsewhere. I've been on a bizarre roll for several months there. My first tests have hit scum players for several games in a row.

[fferyllt]

ff, do you think it's unlikely that there was a scum on your wagon? I still think Nero looks bad.

I'm agnostic on this. of the players on the wagon Nero looks worst, but I can totally see scum standing back to watch two town wagons compete. But, if scum split up on town-wagons, Nero looks bad and so does lurker if you are town.

[fferyllt]

Why would buldermar act like that after you turned town?

There's absolutely no point to continue acting like town for such an extended period of time.

Why why why where is the motivation

Scum defending a lynch.


Fuck.

He's obsessive about being right. Or in this case, about being justified in being wrong - i.e., it's my fault entirely that he thought I was scum. It pings for me too, but I have seen him argue long past when there's an utility in continuing in other games. It wasn't a twilight situation, though.

I don't feel like this is entirely fair. I pointed out where I think I made a critical mistake in my analysis. I do think that much of my skepticism regarding you stems from your sudden change in opinion with respect to me. I'm not insisting that it's entirely your fault that I thought you were scum.

24 hour game days do not lend themselves to deliberateness. My play-style is abrupt, abrasive and mercurial because that's what it takes to sort someone quickly. Apply pressure, test, move on for now if the reaction looks town. You were the player I felt was hardest to read and most dangerous if scum. That made you a priority, and it preloaded a ton of suspicion and paranoia about you. Next game, it may not take as much to convince me because this game becomes a baseline.

One thing I've seen over and over again is that my test/sort process tends to freak players out, and the people I go after for a while often come out the other end convinced I have to be scum, esp if they have little game experience with me.

You really haven't seen this aspect of my game elsewhere. I've been on a bizarre roll for several months there. My first tests have hit scum players for several games in a row.

In one game I played with Nacho, I just decided to assume that he was town and play the game accordingly because I thought I'd be spending too much time trying to figure him out - time that could be better spent on people easier to read. Perhaps I should have just done that this game.

A guy I used to play mafia with, I mostly just tabled questions about his alignment until day 2 or 3. Even if I got a good scum read on him day 1 I couldn't get him lynched that early.

[fferyllt]

Jesus Christ, it's like you can't even take eight hours to go sleep around here. I leave you people alone and there's a dead person by the time I get back. For shame.

We had eight days left on deadline, you people couldn't have waited or even given things a bit more thought?

I think this was all but inevitable. but it would have been good to get more of read on deltabacon first.

I'm sorry my play got us into this blind alley. But at least all the speculation about lynching my potential scum buddies today can be put to rest.

[fferyllt]

sorry, town. really glad my crap didn't cost town the game. buldermar did a real number on my head. I was not kidding about the heat death of the universe.

[fferyllt]

chicken