Xenosaga Mafia (Game Over)

[Angry Frat BROs]

slow starts are a thing

Its page 73 and the most notable 'scum hunting' from Kag is her sttempt to distance from inside knowledge about neighborhoods by calling you town for asking about one.

lynch burn fire

Skull is town, Kaze is scum.

Agree, Disagree. Ceph prob-town too.

VOTE: Brian

Skull/Kaze are both nice candidates for mafia here.

If there is any scum on the brian wagon, I would think it has to be metal sonic or muffin.

Flandre's naked vote is not scummy, imo

.

ASSUMING THAT FS's VOTE IS A SCUMMY THING.

WHY IS THAT
BECAUSE KAGAMI KNOWS IT IS ACTUALLY FROM SCUM.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Its not BRO so who cares

[Angry Frat BROs]

Town Kagami Logic:

BROseidon might be scum for cooking up reads on me he knows are wrong. I'll ask them which one it is.

Oh ok I'll just say what I was thinking now so they can lie about it or attribute it to AP either way if they are scum.

Im definitely playing to my town meta, go me :3

Nacho, when did you get such a soft heart?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Urge to reference jacbosavage mafia ... rising...

[Angry Frat BROs]

reference it a lot, if you'd like
i'm certainly going to reference this one when we're done with it

ugh ugh ugh, the problem is.

If you guys are actually cheeky scum this game Im gonna be the only one to see it.

[Angry Frat BROs]

You really think that Kagami asserting that she got her fav role but it was (VT?) and whatever is defo from town?

You dont think BORK gave her that as a fakeclaim potentially and she looked at it and had the same reaction to seeing a VT PM written up for it?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Nacho...if you were to hammer Kagami in your next post.


and she flipped town.

I would feel grief.

[Angry Frat BROs]

So much grief that I may just chug this fairly large bottle of pink wine on stream tonight

[Angry Frat BROs]

Is anybody actually thinking Im something other than obvious town? I dont see how Im not just obviously town at this point.

[Angry Frat BROs]

You really think that Kagami asserting that she got her fav role but it was (VT?) and whatever is defo from town?

You dont think BORK gave her that as a fakeclaim potentially and she looked at it and had the same reaction to seeing a VT PM written up for it?

yes
i don't understand the second bit

What I'm saying is.

Imagine why you think Kag is town for her role herpaderp.

now imagine shes scum.

And got that town PM you THINK she has as a fakeclaim.

What changes?

Nothing.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Im just trying to make NAcho an offer he can't refuse to hammer. But he did successfully refuse.

[Angry Frat BROs]

No, I think shes perfectly capable of having received KOSMOS a a VT role PM FAKECLAIM and gone through the EXACT SAME THOUGHT PROCESS that you now think makes her obviously town.

The trut his that nothing shes done isn't fakeable. It just means she saw that her fav character is a fakeclaim and she was JUST AS DISAPPOINTED/BITTERSWEET ABOUT THAT AS SHE IS CLAIMING TO BE.

Nothing shes expressed is a ridiculously town emotion to be having

[Angry Frat BROs]

If Im somehow not understanding the towntells that Kagami is raining down on us, maybe you could explain them to me then?

Zeal about her character claim 'proving' that she is town is not a towntell. To the contrary, trying to prove herself as town is absurdly scummy.

[Angry Frat BROs]

And if your case consists of "not scumhunting" and nothing more, I'd like to hear why Kagami over other "not scumhunters".

Because her interactions with the FS wagon are TERRIBLE given the flip.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Yes, if she were makign a case for herself being town I wouldnt have issue with it.

I have issue with

I've never seen a chief protagonist as fake-claim.

trying to 'prove' that she can't be scum because of the claim.

Flavor seems to be relevant to role in the other xeno games.

--

I might be confbiasing this, I can't actually tell anymore

I like being over confident than wishywashy though so Im sticking to it.

Unless you can sell me on a Kaze wagon.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I ISO'd skull. I dont think Ive ever seen a worse quote stripper.

I can see if I can get my heart behind it, but Kagami is just scum. You aren't even trying to refute that, you just be stubborn. Or scum, but stubborn more likely.

[Angry Frat BROs]

If I sell you a bulletproof vest, how much will you pa me for it?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Who made the comment about SkullDug being town cause their meta would be hard to fake?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Bottle of wine

I'll chug it

live on payperview

I do wanna know which scum endorsed Skull that way though.

[Angry Frat BROs]

scanf("%f", input);
printf("Actually kinda meh about Kagami wagon, hence my lack of vote on it, would totally stab muffin with you.");

while(kagami) {

vote(Kagami);
troll(Nacho);

System.out.println("Lynch Kagami, they are scum");

}

[Angry Frat BROs]

Java? Really?

System.Console.WriteLine("I like C# more actually");

[Angry Frat BROs]

trollol.

ANYWAYS

[Angry Frat BROs]

Dan do you have a townread on mastin?

[Angry Frat BROs]

What the hell just happened >.>

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ffery, I think scum may have tried to investigate or kill you last night because four people visited you, I'm oneshot watcher.

I crumbed who earlier, in case I die.

Achievement unlocked: popular

[Angry Frat BROs]

Is there any reason you aren't just claiming them since its publicly available?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Thing is, its probably -exactly- one scum in that group and no more than 2.

If scum are rolecopping/blovking? ffery, why also kill them. seems like a waste.

[Angry Frat BROs]

goodbye forever MafiaSSK

?

[Angry Frat BROs]

One was SSK. Who seems like plausible scum.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Does anyone actually have a good townread on mastin?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Huh ok, well I'd consider lynching that sooner than later.

[Angry Frat BROs]

actually iso shows he could be investigative. easily. gdi.

you sure on your town read.

because I wouldn't be.

I skimmed his ISO and don't see it, but I usually can't read him for shit so... *shrug*

I think I see what Dan is saying. Still why investigate Sangres after thye led the FS wagon.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ssk is town. Mastin may be scum

[Angry Frat BROs]

How plausible is venmar/ms scumteam?

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm so good at this game

[Angry Frat BROs]

VOTE: frat bros

shitty misvote. Justify this or back the hell off.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Btw ap didn't post anything in the qt last night I find that very suspect cause he posted lots the previous night

This doesn't really make any sense and yes I thought Kagami was scummy because of the FS flip. I was starting to doubt myself yesterday but was too proud or whatever the fuck to back down.

I was thinking Cabd was scummy so Im glad I dont have to sort him.

I really don't know where I want to go today.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Sangres, do you guys have a read on metal sonic other than telling me to go look it up.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Cause his last post is really really lynchable.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Yes really. Are you voting me because of MS saying I didnt post anything?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Unless Cabd was lying about his Night 1 results for whatever reason, we know that Pieguy protected Sangres on the same night that ActionDan and SSK performed an action on Sangres. Pieguy was one-shot Bulletproof, which means that one of those two tried to kill Sangres on Night 1.

VOTE: MafiaSSK

Metal Sonic what was that shit about 3 neighborhoods?

Um skull said something about 3 neighbors hoods idk, but there are 8 confirmed neighbors so my point stands

Two neighborhoods are confirmed and Cabd hinted at being in a neighborhood too. Don't quite remember where, but I can go digging through his ISO to find it if you really want me to.

Nacho, I still want an answer to this:

Spoiler:

Also, who is the only player in this playerlist who would kill Varsoon N1?
SKULL SKULL SKULL

What makes you say this? What led you to the conclusion that I'm the

only

person who would want to kill Varsoon?

Actually this is a good post.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ok so mafiaSSK is scum for trying to NK Sangres on N1.

Metal Sonic is probably just mafia for trying to hedge a mislynch on me all bullshitty like that just now.

I'm guessing Varsoon was a serial kill and Sangres / Pie was the N1 mafia shot by SSK.

SSK is probably the correct lynch today unless we really think it could be dan (its not)

[Angry Frat BROs]

Makes me think one of mastin and kaze is a serial killer

Ya I think mastin is scum of some sort.

Maybe not maf for how he handled the FS lynch?

But Im just not feeling anything super town from her, could definitely see an SK trying to get townread and cast through the nights potentially.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Sangres, do you guys have a read on metal sonic other than telling me to go look it up.

The neighborhood question needs a good, solid answer IMO.

?

[Angry Frat BROs]

I had a townread on Aegor, but need to look back on that.

^ This.

Im not sure why I was townreading Aegor or why I stopped, but I don't feel extremely great about him. Feels like hes just along for the ride I guess and not really exploring avenues of interest.

You're going to have to do something really, really wonderful to rehabilitate my read of you. </3

This isn't it.

God, I hate to flipflop on another read and be wrong, but I think Im leaning town on Kaze?

SSK being town requires the nightkill to have disappeared some other way.

ninja, the scum targeted pieguy for the lolz (possible given 2 anti-town kills?), I don't know but Im paranoid and Im gonna waffle anyways? I dont see why SSK would be making the maf kill? could be SK I guess.

Yep, you're scum. (Metal Sonic is, too.)

Of your great great grand lynch pool, I think I'd prefer MS.

I dont see mastin's scum motivation for calling SSK town here? I guess its possible hes going for credit of some sort, but BLEH. I dont know.

Question: is it common for a town neighbor to also have an additional night action?

yes.

[Angry Frat BROs]

3. Angry Frat Bros- *cringe* town?

legit lold

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm just saying that's why people are considering it. I think he's probably scum but it's not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

Ceph, please be town this game. You are making tons of sense to me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

What I'm wondering is, why did pie die instead of sangres last night?

Simple answer: Because Pie protected Sangres again???????????????????

AP Conspiracy answer: Mafia team thought Pie was just a doctor after having failed to kill Sangres so they targeted her (her BP already being gone)?

[Angry Frat BROs]

1 Shot bulletproof you dunce.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SkullDuggery

No whammies, no whammies

[Angry Frat BROs]

AP GET IN HERE PLZ ASAP!!!!

You rang?

[Angry Frat BROs]

also skull is uber town!!1!

Thank you, but unfortunately, the feeling isn't mutual. I'm still waiting for you to impress me, Mollie!

Mollie why does this quote make me

[Angry Frat BROs]

I WAS WONDERING IF HOW PIE'S ROLE WORKED AND IF HE WAS SHOT N1 BUT THE BULLETPROOF PROTECTED HIM AND THEN HE SAVED SOME1 LAST NIGHT WHOM SCUM TARGETED IS THAT NOT HOW THAT ROLE WORKS

Pie was definitely shot on N1 and 2. Well ALMOST definitely. The question is did her

target

get shot or did she get shot?

P-edit: mastina is sketchy. Not sure if I want to lynch, but sketchy. Feels too not-manipulative to be mafia? Maybe a lurkaderp SK trying to avoid night kills?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Skull doesn't feel a bit..forced there?

I dunno, it would help if I actually put my nose to the grindstone in this game, but that Skull quote feels super awkward.

[Angry Frat BROs]

my thing is, is that mastina has consistently held the position that sks ought to be leashed and that they should be given a chance. he doesn't even know who they are and already he is like ACK! ACK! LYNCH THE SK ARGGGHHHH!!!

Uhhhhhhhhh?

1. We don't have any idea who the SK is (maybe mafiaSSK, but even then thats not a great lead).
2. Mastin's point that there is no reason to SK-hunt is totally valid; if there were a claimed SK or obvious/confirmed SK, I could see him actually caring.
3. Except hes not saying "lets lynch the SK?". He is saying "the SK is whatever, lets just lynch scum"

[Angry Frat BROs]

I think Im mostly amused that Skull is thanking Mollie for townreading her

Ffery, where you at.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Feels too not-manipulative to be mafia?

which mastin posts have /you/ been reading?

The ones where she votes Flandre, unvotes Flandre and says some crap about wagons, lurks, then calls SSK town for ~reasons~ that amount to gut.

Basically mastina is like trying to look intentionally scummy? IDGI.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Mollie's reason for scumreading mastin feels a bit off. The whole "mastin would leash an SK" argument feels largely irrelevant in the current game state and mastin's spiel about SKs in this game felt legit to me more than anything else shes said.

Mollie you aren't trying to get suspicion started in mastina's direction are you?

Skull/Mollie?

P-edit: I guess, but shooting a BG is like putting one in the bank so when the Cop claims, you dont have any obstacles. Not saying I 100% believe Pie was shot, but its possible. Its possible someone Docgtor read her after the kill failed and she was still alive.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Sorrymollie had to be sure

SkullDugg lynch ahoy though

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ugh ok. What do you make of mastin defending him?

[Angry Frat BROs]

mastin, if you are going to howl about MafiaSSK being obvious town, you have to justify the watch results and lack of kill.

Cause it looks fairly incriminating.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm really not as engaged in this game as I'd like to be due to tons of back2back IRL things that are (hopefully) over.

UNVOTE: Skull; VOTE: MetalSonic

Because mastin is inside my head.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Why was this question so important to you? Did you receive the answer that you were looking for?

Its important to him because I softed/trolled/fakeclaimed jailkeeper/commute-giver/doctor in the QT.

Question is, is he posturing about this for town points or is he legitimately trying to scumhunt.

[Angry Frat BROs]

MetalSonic/Skull/mastin A++ lynches today.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm going to an intern's place to play boardgames. If I survive the shitshow that is intern parties at my company, I'll actually put in :EFFORT:.

but that last reads list feels right.

[Angry Frat BROs]

VOTE: mastin

[Angry Frat BROs]

Dan, are those all your reads you've had? Your most recent ones?

[Angry Frat BROs]

^BRO who still hasn't read the game.

[Angry Frat BROs]

wait wait wait wait.

GOD DMAN It

I know I waivered ony my Cephrir read, but I was calling him the SCUMZZORZ in the neighborhood adamantly last night and Ms and Venmar can confirm that. I dont even want them to confir5m it for townpoints, IO just want my ego to get some food here.

YES

HashTag ## Vote: Aegor

[Angry Frat BROs]

Anyone have their ability inexplicably fail lately?

IDK, my BFF Mollie can tell me if it did or not.

[Angry Frat BROs]

AP I thought we were voting mastin.

[Angry Frat BROs]

then lets lynch gooner! which is funny cos I was talking about him in the qt

VOTE: gooner

danny I am not sure how i feel about you

Vote: Skull

HashTag ## Vote: Aegor

Lol

[Angry Frat BROs]

AP I thought we were voting mastin.

I might be convinced, but I think I my heart is just not in that vote right now. I doubt hes mafia, only a little SK read there. Frankly I don't think he'd SK Cephrir last night although I guess its plausible?

My excessive skims through the game left me feeling weird about Skull and Aegor for Mafia and I was pretty sure Ceph was mafia either way.

[Angry Frat BROs]

How are you feeling about your neighborhood?

Mmmm. Well they likely can't be scum together, so THAT is a relief (not that I was being super paranoid about that conspiracy).

I think I have the lightest of SK reads on Venmar.

MS still townish I think?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Just for the record it's likely we'll lynch scum today . I haz secrets

And here I thought I jailed you last night.

Mollie, I heard it through the grape vine that you wanted a lump of coal for christmas.

[Angry Frat BROs]

No AP we bus drove him with someone.

Get our role right jesus

[Angry Frat BROs]

<3

[Angry Frat BROs]

It's been fun.

VOTE: skull

Care to explain before I blindly sheep this?

[Angry Frat BROs]

I sort of expected them to die last night. ^

I think Aegor looks bad, I spent a lot of time reading last Night and I posted in the QT about PoE and how I thought Skull, Cephrir, Aegor, mastin2 likely had the remaining 3 scum in it.

Now I also may have gone off the deepend a bit, but I guessed (correctly) that Ceph was likely just mafia. I think Skull or Aegor is the buddy, leaning Aegor atm. Some of his posts look iffy in ISO and with the flips. I was seeing some skull/ceph connections too so I should look over those 2 again.

[Angry Frat BROs]

FUCK WHAT THE RESULTS SAY. FUCK IT BEING INCRIMINATING.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

That MafiaSSK has managed to lurk this much is distressing. I am awaiting a kick-ass post after the prod.

This in particular seemed sketchy to me. There are other things.

Calling mafiaSSK out on being sketch, supporting an FS lynch around this time (but not SSK?) and not wanting either of them vigged.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Do you think Mastin-scum would stick his neck out that far for a scumbuddy? This goes a few steps beyond not bussing.

No I was pretty adamant in the QT that I think mastin is essentially confirmed not-mafia. his interactions with the Flandre wagon AND MafiaSSK in general would be going for broke if he IS scum.

I think he could be a serial killer and had inside info about the NKs (i.e., he knew Varsoon was the maf kill) that led him to think SSK was town.

Buuuut, Im not 100% sold on that. I dont think mastin would have shot Cephrir last night, I think he would have shot me if he were SK.

[Angry Frat BROs]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 8#p5695358

I can't get over how much vomit this post brings to my mouth though ^

[Angry Frat BROs]

I can see it being town though even though it is shorting out my scum-radar2000^TM in every possible way.

Aegor has said somethings that look really explicitly scummy and I have a hard time seeing some of his thought process from town.

[Angry Frat BROs]

My mom spent hundreds of dollars preparing for the end of the world circa y2k.

We had hilarious enormous plasic barrels for water storage in our backyard for a while.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Now that I actually have a Computer Engineering degree, I can't help but laugh at how absurd all that bullshit was.

Truly the end of the world is when unix time no longer fits in 32 bit unsigned numbers.

The end of the world will fall in the year 2106, nearly 200 suns since the birth of our savior Alan Turing.

[Angry Frat BROs]

AEGOR I SEE YOU AROUND. GET IN HERE AND DEFEND THYSELF, DEMON.

[Angry Frat BROs]

^ Oh that was me. I serial killed Cephrir to frame you.

[Angry Frat BROs]

killing Cephrir. Like...I was the only one scumreading him.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Is matin claiming scum? I cant even tell anymore.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Muffin, is mastin scum?

I'll sheep you forever if you say yes.

[Angry Frat BROs]

if there's scum in your neighbourhood, it's aegor

Muffin you are invited to the party.

The party on this Aegor wagon.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Like I was pretty sure mastin was town, but that last post is just SO CHEEKY I want to lynch it anyways.

I need xReckonerx in here to read the CHEEK so I dont have to.

[Angry Frat BROs]

WHAT?

Well I want dibs on being Ffery's fabulous wingman.

Im not really that fabulous. Actually I'd probably be better at helping someone pick up on guys though, so this works out.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I have a post restriction, I have to get this game to at LEAST 10 pages today before Bork can post a VC.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Also Gooner seems lile a pretty likely candidate.

FOR BEING OBVIOUSLY TOWN.

Mollie that vote I dont even.

Can we lynch people who are actually scummy today?

[Angry Frat BROs]

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Sangres, do you guys think this post likely is made to a scum buddy?

[Angry Frat BROs]

AFB has been a major townread of mine all game, but...I'm beginning to have doubts on that, too. I KNOW. I shouldn't. I shouldn't be doubting them. But, well...I am

Mollie and Dan can confirm me as town.

No joke. So dont even worry about this.

[Angry Frat BROs]

On the one hand, he's not going to claim a result he couldn't back. On the other hand, him being scum going down, why would he truthfully claim a result on Skull that would clear Skull of being scum? Basically, it's fully possible for Skull to be scum, who SSK knew the result of and thus, could safely claim, in order to make Skull look better upon SSK's scumflip

[Angry Frat BROs]

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Well there is likely 1 mafia and 1 SK left, so you tell me where you think those are divided up among the 3:5:5 still alive.

See the above img I posted to mastin.

We are lynching people we think are scummy.

I'm confirmed town. MS seems pretty town. Venny could be an SK maybe but Im having a hard time buying him as maf.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Now consider the interaction between mollie and the known scum in her ISO. And mollie's general contribution to this game. Someone please explain the town mindset here.

IDK, I think mollie's poor voting record most likely comes from town who doesn't know what its doing than scum intentionally avoiding bussing.

I find it funny that you are trying to point to a lack of town motivation here (when its just derp-motivated) instead of arguing that is just likely scum-motivated.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Explain why I should think mollie is an unlucky idiot, because that is what you are asking.

No, I'm saying that there is a very reasonable explanation for mollie's voting record being not-great: it happens. Sometimes townies are wrong or not involved in the game as they should be (LIKE MOLLIE HERE) and their play is lagging or reads not great because of that.

If you tried to argue that Mollie was being BLATANTLY SCUM MOTIVATED, I'd have bought your post more. You trying to argue that her voting record + cryptic "interactions with flipped scum" is not town-motivated is....dubious? I mean her voting record could definitely be from town and I didn't see anything in her ISO that looked particularly bad wrt flipped scum other than her townreading SSK and Cephrir early on and calling Flandre a null-scum. Even still I wouldn't call that "interactions" since that really just boils down to the same thing as your first point that her reads were subpar.

--

Now, why are you calling Mollie out specifically here when you ALSO in your SAME POST said you'd rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood? Was there anyone in particular neighborhood hunting or are you just having your cake and eating it too by dissuading people from looking at your group and simultaneously casing on mollie?

--

Mollie is certainly not the only person to misread people this game. I -started- the Kag wagon, was not voting SSK (despite telling mastin the evidence looked incriminating) and only sheeped the FS wagon once other things didn't go through. Why are you not looking at me for the same reason you are looking at mollie? I also tunneled Ceph D1 just to mostly give it up D2. I even voted people other than SSK on D2 pretty exclusively.

Same for mastin. Hopped off the FS wagon blatantly when CWs were happening, adamant about SSK town, early vote on Kagami. THAT voting record is worse than mollies yet you are voting mollie.

[Angry Frat BROs]

(Also, AP, pronoun trouble. She. SHE. Not he. Habits die hard, I know.)

I know, I felt bad. Getting way too into this game, not error checking myself

[Angry Frat BROs]

At this point, I guess that my top candidates for scum would be Skull or Aegor,
And that my top candidates for serial killer would be (approximately most-least) Kaze, (the other of the two above), Metal Sonic, or Venmar.

I can get behind this.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Update your game ap

I haven't forgotten about it.

Aegor....I'm a little torn I guess? His defense pings me for a few reasons and his OMGUS at zMuffin felt a bit forced.

Buuut I could kind of see his narrative coming from town.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Scummies in the front seat

Dummies in the back seat

Gotta make my mind up

Which one do I vooooOoooOote?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Skull, you do realize that in exactly zero of those quotes did zMuffin point out that SSKs actions made sense. Like the exact opposite actually happened.

And it wasnt just your rolecop prediction that makes that post suspicious.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Is it really just skull/aegor? Aegor maf, skull sk?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Ilu mollie.

But gooner is a townie for his post today. Or at least not mafia. Sk plausible.

Actually Skull SK makes little sense unless ninja. Ssk would have outed her on d3 for sure.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Muffin's probably town, yes. Sangres-Dan being an SK pair still leaves the mystery of the N1/N2 kill dilemma, though.

Not at all? You w4ere the one floating that Pieguy could have been a shot.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Townblock?: Sangres, Dan, Mollie
Probably not willing to touch today: mastin2, Metal Sonic, Venmar, orcinus, zMuffin* (is Skulls pressure here sudden; missing mafia kill last night relevant?)

The rest: Skull, Aegor, Gooner, Kaze* (need to review him again, I keep waffling, slight townlean?)

[Angry Frat BROs]

Is SK-Mastin shooting Cephrir unlikely simply because you think you were a bigger priority or do you have other reasons for suspecting that SK-Mastin would not have shot Cephrir?

I doubt SK mastin would lie about reads in the thread. If mastin thought Cephrir was scum, then I strongly doubt she'd SK him last night since that makes the game heavily townsided with only one more mafia left (probably) for town to find before moving on.
I also doubt mastin shoots Cephrir for reasons even mastin pointed out (self wifom ahoy): the Ceph kill looks like something mastin would make.

I think SK mastin would want to remove a threat. BRO and I are good at reading mastin and have been suspecting mastin. We've even hinted at having a PR. Our death wouldn't really be extremely traceable (imo) and mastin-SK would -probably- be looking to pick off a perceived town threat last night. Kind of speculation heavy on my end, but I think it all adds up to not-mastin.

--

So I think there being mafia in the 5p neighborhood seems very likely for reasons laid out before. I'm fairly certain its not Sangres (town for Dan flavor reasons) or Mollie (town because its mollie). Gooner seems likely to not be mafia based on his one analysis post out the gates today which involved the Ceph flip. Not impossible, just unlikely IMO. That leaves Aegor or Skull for a mafia pick in all probability.

The serial killer Im a little sketch on, could see it being a few different people. SkullDuggery is (mostly) confirmed not the SK. I doubt mastin is (reasons above). I think Dan/Sangres are clear for flavor.

I think Skull flipping mafia might make zMuffin slightly likelier to be SK.

P-edit: Daww I miss you too.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Gooner way, WAY up. Then you've got a fairly decent starting point.

Do you think Gooner could be a Serial Killer this game?

[Angry Frat BROs]

God damn it, that Cephrir ISO is going to make me suspicious of mastina.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Okay, that works for me.

See, I've been mulling over a theory that SSK might actually be a Rolecop who investigated Sangres and I, saw that we don't have night actions, and made up the Tracker claim because it sounded like a more Town-centric role and he wouldn't be taking any huge risks when it came time to report his results.

Why a rolecop instead of a tracker? I mean I guess RC is -slightly- more common for mafia to have (although I think that is more true in minis) What risks does SSK dodge by claiming Tracker as a rolecop? If you -did- have an action, he'd have to try and guess what it was or you'd -know- he was scum and enter a 1v1 with him. It makes a lot of sense for SSK to just real claim either way IMO.

No, I don't know for certain whether Sangres is a regular ol' Neighbor or not, but at this point, it seems like a pretty safe assumption. (I'm not even gonna consider whatever happened between ActionDan and Sangres because that probably wouldn't have interfered with a Rolecop's Night 1 investigation, so it's not important anyway.) Metal Sonic's 2058 looked like it might have been an attempt to help his theoretical partner SSK narrow down his investigation targets by getting the Neighbors to claim whether or not they had any additional night actions. I asked Metal Sonic all those questions so I could see if that theory was plausible or not.

Of course, that was before I knew about AFB's soft-claiming in his Neighborhood, which explained a lot. Combine that with Metal Sonic's subsequent responses and it does look like 2058 was coming from a Town mindset after all. So, that theory is shot down and Metal Sonic is still Town.

I mean I guess you were townreading MS throughout the game? but the phrasing here really bothers me "guess he wa stown after all" sounds like you knew he was town the whole time.

It doesn't clear SSK, though. If we assume that Mastin is the Serial Killer (and I'm going full-force on that theory until we receive convincing evidence that this isn't the case), it makes total sense for him to try to kill Pieguy on Night 1. (If you don't know why this makes sense, you haven't been paying attention.) That would mean that Varsoon was the Scum-kill on Night 1, which means that it now makes sense for Scum-SSK to perform a non-killing action on Sangres on Night 1. Like, say, a Rolecop investigation.


VOTE: MafiaSSK

Cheeky gif, made right after a bus vote? Just makes this feel sorta bussy to me.

I don't know why I hate the above post so very much.

Because you don't understand my moonlogic methods, so like a true classy gentleman, you hate them simply because you don't understand them. That would be my guess.

This reads like distancing.

Because you're scum, and Skull is (or...at least, might be?) a scumbuddy who you're seeing their post as being more scummy than it actually is? There are plenty of Skull's posts to be suspicious of, but the one you have an issue with is utterly and entirely null; I can't see how anyone would have an issue with that particular post.

If you really think I'm Scum, feel free to stab the bajeesus out of me tonight. I highly doubt any protective roles are going to try to stop you. Nothing bad will happen to you. I promise.

TL;DR: MafiaSSK rolecop misprediction feels like somebody trying to go for credit with the bus, but not wanting to show too much of their hand so they mispredict the Tracker as a Rolecop. Skull even defacto assumed that this is what I thought was scummy which tells me that Skull was very conscious about that prediction specifically.

combined with the GIF, it really reads like someone trying to hedge onto this lynch without looking overeager to be grabbing last minute town pants.

The little quip to Cephrir reads like distancing to me although Id like to ISO them together to confirm. It just feels...unnatural? Why is Skull going out of the way to appease Cephrir here instead of being upset or prodding back like she seems to have a tendency to do? Reads like buddying, and not in a town-motivated way.

Rolecop explanation feels a little forced and their definitely seems to be some highlighting of the fact that SSK targeted her (distancing).

Sooooo, would probably lynch. Seems like a mafioso in all probability.

SK could be Gooner/Aegor I think.

P-edit: Its not a well thought out opinion on my end, mostly a note to myself to look at Skull's ISO. The thought though is that there is a mafia kill missing last night. If mafia shot zMuffin and he lived, they might strongly suspect he is the SK. Thats why I said I need to look and see if Skull's pressure on zMuffin was sudden.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Brian Skies let himself be wagoned to L-1. Does that sound like a ballsy-SK move or a town-move? Definitely the latter to me.

Its not like he had a choice in the matter?

I don't think self-votes are particularly town motivated. Ive self-voted (or threatened to) as town ONLY when the deadline is coming up and Im afraid of a possible no lynch. I think the only time I've ever raged/faked-emotion and voted myself was as scum.

Spoiler:

If he doesn't provide content he's the scummiest of the bunch and should be lynched for it.

Do you really put stock in lurking as a scum-tell?

Basically, this is where Im at.

Majiffy, and Wisdom are strong townreads.
NS, Mollie and SD look townish.

Amrun is fucking scum. Grim is likely scum. Venmar/Enomis/Elyse are PoE scum.

Grim, what is your current read on Amrun?

If I'm wrong about one of my town reads, its probably safety dance.

P-edit: Cheeky! Ok Grim lets dance. UNVOTE: , VOTE: AP

Summarize your opinion on me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

^ I left that vote on myself until I was fake-hammered by Venmar IIRC.

(Then coasted to endgame on probtown status )

[Angry Frat BROs]

Yes but the fallacy in your reasoning is that relaxed=town and panicked=scum.

Town breaks down and panics at times. Like me on D1 of Switchboard mafia where everyone called me scum for town flailing and OMGUSing my wagon.

Brian read almost OVERLY calm (I need to ISO this) and, lets face it, it was an RVS wagon. The chance of it actually going through was not that high. Brian isn't dumb.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Or ME WHEN I REPLACED INTO MINDREADER MAFIA. I -did- selfvote there, but I was nothing short of panicky and frantic the entire time I was getting lynched

[Angry Frat BROs]

*Shakes fist at Nacho*

[Angry Frat BROs]

Not even scum/SK who's calm and collected and cool as the method of dealing with it.

I guess we just have to disagree about this sentence then?

I could see him being town, but I don't particularly think the way he handled his wagon was a towntell.

He provided reads on his wagon unprompted and was very responsive to people in the thread at the time which was kind of uncharacteristic. And he also pointed out precisely when he was L - 1.

Its clear that it was a concern to him and I think his approach to it WAS calculated to a degree, make of that what you will.

[Angry Frat BROs]

From the tiny bit I read, he does read a little different though.

Chiefly he is a bit more OMGUSy directly.

[Angry Frat BROs]

^ Do you think Gooner is mafia or SK?

His attempts at scumhunting don't feel overly forced to me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Also I might be biased, but I still want to call him scummy for the whole "I wonder if AFB SK-slipped" -> "Well no I never called you an SK, but if there IS one it might be you" -> *where the fuck did this train of thought go* was suspicious and possibly distancing from inside knowledge of him being an SK.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I was pretty much prepared to go against Kaze today but Ceph turning up scum has given me pause. If we work off of the assumption there are 5 scum Kaze is likely to be scum off the wagon but with 4 scum that would mean there is no scum in either neighbourhood which I struggle to believe.

I might be insane (help?) but this post read off to me as if he were expecting Ceph to flip town last night.

[Angry Frat BROs]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=31485

[Angry Frat BROs]

Oh wait he was town there, derp. I thoughtI recalled seeing him scum somewhere.

well ok he was definitely scum here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=32268

[Angry Frat BROs]

Can someone explain to me how Mastin isn't the SK?

There's a town PM in her inbox
With green lettering
And a Chaos-aligned win condition
?

[Angry Frat BROs]

-shrug-, not really? I think the SK is a bit more up in the air at this point (mafia seems likely confined to your neighborhood for reasons) which can be PoE'd down nicely with interactive tells and townreads.

The SK is a bit more open, but some people make less sense for it. (Skull is cleared entirely, mastin seems unlikely at best unless she is really just yoloscum this game)

P-edit: you know its true

[Angry Frat BROs]

Can we just lynch backpedaling, "but you can't PROVE that I rolled mafia" players today?:

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players?

We should be looking at mollie, Kaze or within the 3-person neighborhood today.

I never said I would rather look for scum in the smaller neighborhood.

--
^^ - Backpedaling

"But you can't PROVE that I rolled scum in this game"

Could you please explain how the hell it makes sense for me to push a bus through on my buddy

My vote switch is completely anticipated, yet you ignore the trajectory completely to make your case. In that same post, I resist mastin's attempt to clear SSK.

And then explain why I am more likely scum.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Our neighborhood is the most awesome neighborhood.

[Angry Frat BROs]

You're not off the hook yet, Flandre. I'll get back to you. I've been burned for ignoring lurker-Scum before, and I'll be damned if I let it happen again here.

scum.

fire.

die.

lynch.

[Angry Frat BROs]

3) Assume I am scum. Now tell me what my strategy is and how my posts are reconcilable with that strategy.

-Distance from buddies Flandre and MafiaSSK by calling them lurkers and suspicious
-Attempt to mislynch Skull by making case walls on her.
-Point out scummy thing that mastin has done to make people interested in lynching him instead of your lurker buddies.

[Angry Frat BROs]

-Point out scummy thing that mastin has done to make people interested in lynching her instead of your lurker buddies.

Fixed

[Angry Frat BROs]

Aegor has said somethings that look really explicitly scummy and I have a hard time seeing some of his thought process from town.

You can keep saying that, but that does not make it true.

"But you can't PROVE that Im scum"

Both mastin and muffin get added to my desired-vig list. I think mastin is scummier than zmuffin, which surprised me when I re-read. The attitude present in his earlier posts (before he started making unfounded assertions about alignment) in particular gave me good vibes. None of mastin's posts have been helpful in any way, nor is there any clear scumhunting intent behind them.

Calling mafiaSSK out on being sketch, supporting an FS lynch around this time (but not SSK?) and not wanting either of them vigged.

1) Lynch scummy people. Vig useless people that could be scum. Hence the split. Plus the vig thing is facetious; cf. my similar posts in other games.

Backpedaling

[Angry Frat BROs]

If Aegor is town and Skull is scum and I counterwagon her AGAIN, Im going to cry myself to sleep.

[Angry Frat BROs]

But mastin would be a better lynch

Possibly. Do you think mastin is maf, SK, or either?

I'm really having a hard time seeing the "You'll regret thiiisisissis!!!" coming from a MafiaSSK buddy. Also SSK's posts about mastin read as if he were buddying a townie (or not-mafia) to me.

I guess mastin could have serial killed Cephrir and then hammed it up about being set up.

God knows the SSK defense was mindblowing on D3.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm going to feel awfully silly if MS is scum this game.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Venmar i have good news. I think i have an sk read on Sonic.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Aegor is just mafia aligned still

[Angry Frat BROs]

Venmar, I have good news. I think I have a scumread on MS.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Rubedo Rubedo give me a sign.

Give me a sign that you're town aligned.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Mollie you never responded to my blatant crumbs in the thread Mollie : (

[Angry Frat BROs]

Huh. I guess I was roleblocked last night?

[Angry Frat BROs]

How to read AP:

Spoiler:

My secrets revealed.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Every post we've made is a sign. Every post is town-motivated.

I know, I just made a silly post because gooner and Mollie a re having a silly argument.

But I'm feeling pretty good about where this game is headed. I have mild to good townreads on people that aren't {MetalSonic, Aegor, Skull}. Gooner can be a townie I guess.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Also lol at anyone scumreading Mollie.

[Angry Frat BROs]

No stop flailing around and lynch mafia. HI BRO

Sorry for leaving. I've decided to ignore days 1-3 and play based just on day 4 onwards.

[Angry Frat BROs]

btw, is this bro or AP in the past few posts?

1802 has the word "just" and fails to contract at least once.

Therefore AP.

C'mon people this isn't hard.

[Angry Frat BROs]

wait wtf how did I port back in time.

Ignore those last few posts.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Oh, because our ISO has 2 pages :/

[Angry Frat BROs]

We haven't reached Anything Goes level of spampositng yet, sorry. I'll get on that.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Please help me understand how any of this discussion makes any sense at all. In my 'hood, I think gooner and sangres are town. Skull is leaning town at this point, unless there is distancing that does not feel like distancing. mollie is by far the best scum candidate.

If we want to lynch with a neighborhood, why would we pick the one with more players? Unless there are independently strong scumreads within it, which does not appear to be the case.

Why are you making the assumption that both neighborhoods have scum?

[Angry Frat BROs]

Something cannot be derp-motivated. It is either town or anti-town in motivation; whether it is stupid is a different question.

No I'm gonna back up my hydra partner on this one.

Stupid motivation is one of the four motivations.

Along with town, scum, and personal. It's sort of like the 4 forces in physics.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Move orc up and move Gooner way, WAY up. Then you've got a fairly decent starting point.

Why Orc up?

I don't remember him doing anything and that worries me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I doubt SK mastin would lie about reads in the thread. If mastin thought Cephrir was scum, then I strongly doubt she'd SK him last night since that makes the game heavily townsided with only one more mafia left (probably) for town to find before moving on.
I also doubt mastin shoots Cephrir for reasons even mastin pointed out (self wifom ahoy): the Ceph kill looks like something mastin would make.

I think SK mastin would want to remove a threat. BRO and I are good at reading mastin and have been suspecting mastin. We've even hinted at having a PR. Our death wouldn't really be extremely traceable (imo) and mastin-SK would -probably- be looking to pick off a perceived town threat last night. Kind of speculation heavy on my end, but I think it all adds up to not-mastin.

So much this:

Remember, the SK is trying to build a narrative just as much as the mafia are.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I'm not above throwing a hissy fit if you clownfucks try to mislynch mastina today.

-AP

[Angry Frat BROs]

I never did. Why do you keep asking me why I believe things that I do not believe?

Did my hydra partner ask you that?

Can you quote me the answer? I'm lazy.

[Angry Frat BROs]

k. Then lynch Kaze and lynch me tomorrow if he is town.

Why are you so stupid?

Did you recently experience severe trauma to the head?

When you puzzle this one out, maybe you will stop voteparking probable townies.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Why do I get the feeling this game will be depressing me.

[Angry Frat BROs]

I will be lolling at my flip.

I mean clearly you aren't a cop or continuous Pr or some shit because you'd have claimed it.

But gooner is innocent?

Please for the love of god tell me you didnt just self hammer as a town PR of any sort.

[Angry Frat BROs]

If hes town and has role related info I'll be pretty pissed off.

Even if its just 1 shot cop or some shit.

Im hoping this was an SK claim or something.

[Angry Frat BROs]

Right, so, there's another scum alive. If there wasn't, Aegor self-hammering (well, not, but thinking so) and claiming scum would be playing against his wincon. It's one thing to think you're in a no-win scenario; it's another to give up entirely and not fight back. I refuse to believe a scum-Aegor would do so, so he has to have a scumbuddy alive.

You cant be fucking serious.

You dont feel sick to your stomach about what just happened like I do?

[Angry Frat BROs]

I will be lolling at my flip.

You had better be a Vengeful Town or some shit,

[Angry Frat BROs]

I just exposed either the SK or the last maf.

How so?

I don't think Kaze not insta voting you is a slip.

[Angry Frat BROs]

K. I would highly recommend that you eliminate him ASAP. Then Mollie. Reverse the order if you like.

Fine.