Mafiascum.net

In post 188, Shinobi wrote:

In post 186, Hiraki wrote:

In post 182, Shinobi wrote:Well that's lame.

Hope you find a game that you enjoy more, I guess.

Also, his slot is a town slot. Probably.

Are you just saying this or is there any sort of reasoning here?

Gut feel. He hasn't said anything spectacular to deserve it.

In post 198, Shinobi wrote:UNVOTE: Rubicon
VOTE: DrP's slot

In post 28, shos wrote:anyone else disappointd that they're not the jester?



VOTE: shos

In post 31, ActionDan wrote:I'm a chronic lurker so when I'm having a-bit-o'-fun with that.

There is no difference in the motivations you assign to ZZZX than the possible motivations I could have based upon our posts. 'don't lower / heighten Xay's L-2 status' is simply an indication he doesn't want you to self-hammer if you are the jester. The difference of announcing / not announcing L-2 status is indeed a difference, but not one that's very important or particularly meaningful. If you think about it, who would you place more scrutiny on, the person who voted you to L-2 (which includes a self-vote, which obviously somewhat dilutes the wagon) or two other people who vote and hammer you in quick succession? I'd have my doubts that in twilight you'd look at my vote and say "That's the one, that's the one that did it! GET EM BOYS!"

Anyway, I think you post in general is a little town just because of your first sentence. I also do not think you are the jester. So much so I'd ask someone to put you at L-1 immediately to test and treat a hammerer as confirmed scum (though not to be lynched until D4 obviously). So if anyone has the balls to do so, I encourage you to vote Xay.

Doctor Pepper has a distinct possibility of being the jester, and if he's not, scum. "I am the jester" after Xay self-voted earlier seems like he'd lose value in whatever he's trying to do if he were town.

In post 48, Xayzeck wrote:

In post 46, Melmond wrote:So your selfvote must be scummy too then? I find it strange to mention when you did it yourself.

I do agree with #45 though. I think Xay is either town or jester.

hm, contextual I'd say. I'm cool with selfvotes if they're a joke, like how I used them

shos's felt kind of awkward though, why did he chose to vote himself when there are clearly better places for that at that point on the game, with wagons forming?

In post 202, Shinobi wrote:Because Psyche said a thing that made me think otherwise.

You know, because my reads evolve and stuff.

Man, I don't care about this game at all.

In post 51, shos wrote:My self vote was the best vote town could have.

Let us ignore the jest please and scunhunt
Its very hard to get lynched d1 as jest.

In post 58, ActionDan wrote:Hey Dr. P

##Vote: Dr Pepper

In post 59, ActionDan wrote:That is in fact L-1

zomg.

In post 72, ZZZX wrote:

In post 71, shos wrote:that was not risky, nobody staarting with 'I am jester. discuss' is a jester. I did that too with the selfvote, so I was pretttty sure he wasn't either.

I'm curious, AD, did it occur to you that the fact you put him at L-1 is risk of selfhammer? were you sure he wasn't jest too? or what? I mean what was that L-1 vote supposed to achieve?

Could that be AD jester slipping?

In post 205, Shinobi wrote:You're right. I'm just gonna stop scumhunting entirely because I have a wagon on me.

Ok.

In post 199, Psyche wrote:

In post 191, Hiraki wrote:

Unvote, Vote: Shinobi

I take it back. This isn't jester telling.

gimme some details
i need help making sense of this dude

In post 210, shos wrote:Oi

Aronis, please educate these peeps and tell them why we lynch you on D3 and not earlier.

alsoI think jester is within AD/Shinobi by now so I'ma go and

VOTE: psyche

thsi slot talks too much mucus

In post 210, shos wrote:Oi

Aronis, please educate these peeps and tell them why we lynch you on D3 and not earlier.

alsoI think jester is within AD/Shinobi by now so I'ma go and

VOTE: psyche

thsi slot talks too much mucus

In post 213, Aronis wrote:
At the moment we have a 1/9 shot at lynching the Jester, However, by day 3 it will be reduced to a 1/7 chance, so by waiting to lynch the conf not-jester until D3, we increase our odds of missing the Jester even more by avoiding that day.

In post 214, shos wrote:Thank you, oh wise ol' mann.

In post 215, ActionDan wrote:

In post 213, Aronis wrote:
At the moment we have a 1/9 shot at lynching the Jester, However, by day 3 it will be reduced to a 1/7 chance, so by waiting to lynch the conf not-jester until D3, we increase our odds of missing the Jester even more by avoiding that day.

In post 214, shos wrote:Thank you, oh wise ol' mann.

Since I keep seeing this pop up from shos and I guess now Aronis, I'd like to remark about how completely bullshit it is.

If you aren't lynching DrP/Aronis today and waiting until D3, then the chance of a jester lynch is 1/8 and on D2, if again we don't lynch Aronis, it's 1/7. chance of not lynching the jester is (7/8)(6/7) = 3/4.

If instead, we lynch DrP/Aronis today. The chance is still (7/8)(6/7) = 3/4.

It doesn't take math to figure this out. It takes ~1 brain cell.

In post 217, Psyche wrote:the slot is scummy and not the jester

In post 221, Psyche wrote:it doesn't matter how stressed the jester is...