Newbie 1756: Balloon (Game Over)

[Accountant]

Do you scumlean everyone other than me, Transcend and WCS, or do you scumlean everyone on your wagon other than me and Transcend(ie. Morning Tweet)?

[NorskaBlue]

Is your scum read strong enough to L-1 him?

When you asked this question, no, I wasn't. He is my strongest scumread, but I'm not 100%. To be honest, I'm not certain on anyone, and seeing where I stand at the moment, I really can't afford to dig myself any deeper into this hole I'm in. However, with you shifting your vote onto WCSBO, I'm feeling a little better. Having said that, part of my scumread on Char is his reluctance to offer any useful contributions. Most of his posts seem to be either jokes or taking swings at Accountant. So I'll chuck my vote in now, but I'd really like to see his response to Morning Tweets question in 170.

VOTE: Charloux, which I believe puts him on L-2.

I'm struggling to understand WCSBO. Him scumreading Transcend and townreading Charloux is pretty much the exact opposite of what I've got, so he's slipped a little further down the rankings in my mind.

[Charloux]

Accountant
------------TOWN-----------
Transcend, Manuel
------------NULL------------=>WCSBO, Misa, thatsit
Tweet
------------SCUM-----------=>Norska
------------Hard scum------

[Accountant]

Why do you scumlean Tweet? Is it simply because she's voting you?

[Charloux]

Tweet made up a "case" against me, and voted me; But then he suddenly stopped bothering with me? Seriously, the only guy who pushed me was Accountant and some questions from Transcend. This vote screams fake at me.
Norska played well and objectively until 88. The post itself isn't that bad, but his thinking process had a sudden change in tone. 91 was really bad, he shows that he is concerned about what Transcend sees him. If he wasn't a newbie this would be a serious scumslip in my opinion. After a period of silence, in 157 he attempts to brush off his previous posts. Scumlean so far, but in 201 he left a retreat route in case my wagon drops, while coming closer to scumreading WCSBO.
VOTE: Norska

[Accountant]

To be honest, I'm not certain on anyone, and seeing where I stand at the moment, I really can't afford to dig myself any deeper into this hole I'm in.

What do you mean hole? There isn't any major pressure applied to you, nor are you being considered as a lynch candidate for today. What's with the self-consciousness? Shouldn't townies be focused on telling the truth about their reads and catching scum rather than worrying about how town they look?

However, with you shifting your vote onto WCSBO, I'm feeling a little better.

Why does Transcend voting WCS make you feel better? Transcend wasn't shifting his vote off you, nor was he justifying your own vote(because you're voting Char and he's voting WCS).

Him scumreading Transcend and townreading Charloux is pretty much the exact opposite of what I've got, so he's slipped a little further down the rankings in my mind.

Why do you think that people with different or opposite reads from you are more likely to be scum?

[Transcend]

Charloux:

You make nothing of WCSBO's defense on you?

[NorskaBlue]

To be honest, I'm not certain on anyone, and seeing where I stand at the moment, I really can't afford to dig myself any deeper into this hole I'm in.

What do you mean hole? There isn't any major pressure applied to you, nor are you being considered as a lynch candidate for today. What's with the self-consciousness? Shouldn't townies be focused on telling the truth about their reads and catching scum rather than worrying about how town they look?

Feels like there's some pressure on me. I'll possibly survive today, but I'm being read as scum be pretty much everyone. My line of thinking was that if I put Char on L-1 and then someone who's more under the radar hammers him, it'll reflect bad on me. If I was certain Char was scum I'd take the risk, but I'm not.

However, with you shifting your vote onto WCSBO, I'm feeling a little better.

Why does Transcend voting WCS make you feel better? Transcend wasn't shifting his vote off you, nor was he justifying your own vote(because you're voting Char and he's voting WCS).

Better as in safer. If Char gets lynched, it won't be directly my fault. Cowardly yes, but cowards live longer.

Him scumreading Transcend and townreading Charloux is pretty much the exact opposite of what I've got, so he's slipped a little further down the rankings in my mind.

Why do you think that people with different or opposite reads from you are more likely to be scum?

I suppose you have a point here. But I can't find much if any evidence that Transcend is scum, and plenty on Charloux. I don't buy WCSBO's explanation that his gut told him. So whereas before I had him at pretty much null, now I'm a little suspicious.

[Accountant]

I'm uncomfortable with your mindset. It feels to me like you are thinking "how can I make sure that I look as good as possible" rather than "how can I discern Charloux's alignment", which is a very scummy mindset. I could see some of this being due to your newness to the game, but there are limits to how much that can be used as an excuse.

You said earlier that WCS looked slightly scummy because his reads were the opposite of yours, but now it's due to the fact that you don't buy his gut explanation. Which is it?

[Accountant]

I'm starting to think maybe WCS or Norska would be better lynches than Charloux today. Their flips tell us more about Char than Char's flip tells us about them. Not only that, Charloux had made some good posts lately, like 204, while their posting has gotten worse and worse.

[Accountant]

UNVOTE:

[Transcend]

Information lynching isn't that good of an idea. I respect you a lot, but I think it's best to collectively decide who's the biggest scumfuck and hang them.

However, I do want Charloux to talk more about how WCSBO defended him and if he thinks he deserved said defense, and I also want WCSBO to elaborate himself a little bit more than he has.

[NorskaBlue]

I'm uncomfortable with your mindset. It feels to me like you are thinking "how can I make sure that I look as good as possible" rather than "how can I discern Charloux's alignment", which is a very scummy mindset. I could see some of this being due to your newness to the game, but there are limits to how much that can be used as an excuse.

You said earlier that WCS looked slightly scummy because his reads were the opposite of yours, but now it's due to the fact that you don't buy his gut explanation. Which is it?

But surely looking good is important? I mean, I know I'm town, but noone else other than scum know that, and I'm now at the bottom of most peoples lists, including yours. I want to find out who is scum certainly, and I have been active in trying to figure out alignments, but I also want to keep myself from being lynched. I feel as if everything I do or say seems to incriminate me more, including my attempts to scumhunt, and when I don't say anything, that also counts against me. Hence my hole analogy earlier. So yeah, I guess I have been rather too defensive, but I hope you can at least somewhat understand why.

Both. I feel pretty strongly that Transcend is town. WCSBO comes in and says he thinks T is scum, without providing any reason why other than a gut feeling. Same with Charloux, but with the roles reversed. I can't understand how he reached these conclusions. I'm not saying W is 100% scum, it just makes me lean a bit more in that direction.

[Transcend]

Why am I pretty strong town to you?

[Manuel87]

I agree with Transcend.
A flip gives information on players regardles who we lynch. While it may be true that their flip might tell us a lot about Charloux. A Charloux lynch would give us information on other players as well.
If we think 2 players are equally possible to be scum i agree that lynching the one that gives more information on the other alignment might be better.

VOTE: WeCanSimplyBeOurselves

I think Charloux is town and WCS wants to earn townpoints for defending her.
His Transcend vote makes him look like he is trying to push the lynch on someone else.
Transcend is townread quite a bit so pushing him wont stop the Charloux wagon and its a safe place to pressure without losing the misslynch on Charloux.

[Transcend]

But, the problem is

WCSBO was my best townread at one point and now I'm voting him.

I need to review his ISO to make sure if I really want to vote that way.

[Accountant]

Information lynching isn't that good of an idea. I respect you a lot, but I think it's best to collectively decide who's the biggest scumfuck and hang them.

However, I do want Charloux to talk more about how WCSBO defended him and if he thinks he deserved said defense, and I also want WCSBO to elaborate himself a little bit more than he has.

It's not a pure information lynch - I would never go for something as shoddy as that. I'm saying that Charloux has become less of a scumfuck lately, and WCS and Norska have become more - so it makes sense to lynch them under your criteria.

[Transcend]

Fair enough.

I do think that Charloux still has a decent chance of flipping scum though.

[borkjerfkin]

Votecount 1.6

[3] WeCanSimplyBeOurselves (thatsit, Transcend, Manuel87)
[2] Charloux (Morning Tweet, NorskaBlue)
[1] NorskaBlue (Charloux)
[1] Transcend (WeCanSimplyBeOurselves)

[2] Not Voting (MisaTange, Accountant)

With 9 alive, it is 5 to lynch.

Let me know if you see any problems.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-11-27 00:00:00)

[borkjerfkin]

thatsit was prodded.

[MisaTange]

@Char: Genuinely confused: Why do you slight scumread me?

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

WCS, here is a question for you.

You have two people that you'd like to lynch: Transcend and Norska. For Transcend, the reasoning is due to your gut. For Norska, it's because they're active lurking. Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to vote Norska than Transcend here? After all, you have actual reasoning for your Norska lynch so it's way more likely that people will follow you onto it. If you moved off Norska because you felt people wouldn't join you, then it makes no sense to move

onto

Transcend, who is even worse in terms of "will people join you on this wagon", since he's townread by a few people and you have no reasoning except gut. Not only that, you're saying that you trust your gut more than your reasoning regarding Norska. Is that true?

Well I have two scum leans so I should vote for whichever people are willing to vote along with me. I agree that my reason for voting Norska is stronger but no one is willing to join me on the Norska wagon. My vote is pointless by itself, no scum is going to get lynched that way.

Nah it's not true that I trust my gut more than my reasoning. It's that even if I have a better reason for lynching someone else, if no one's going to buy it and no one's going to join me then it's futitle for me to bang my head against a brick wall. If they're not going to join me they're not going to join me. Most of all I just want to get a scum player lynched.

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

I definitely prefer being asked questions to asking questions.

[Transcend]

WCS, here is a question for you.

You have two people that you'd like to lynch: Transcend and Norska. For Transcend, the reasoning is due to your gut. For Norska, it's because they're active lurking. Wouldn't it make a lot more sense to vote Norska than Transcend here? After all, you have actual reasoning for your Norska lynch so it's way more likely that people will follow you onto it. If you moved off Norska because you felt people wouldn't join you, then it makes no sense to move

onto

Transcend, who is even worse in terms of "will people join you on this wagon", since he's townread by a few people and you have no reasoning except gut. Not only that, you're saying that you trust your gut more than your reasoning regarding Norska. Is that true?

Well I have two scum leans so I should vote for whichever people are willing to vote along with me. I agree that my reason for voting Norska is stronger but no one is willing to join me on the Norska wagon. My vote is pointless by itself, no scum is going to get lynched that way.

Nah it's not true that I trust my gut more than my reasoning. It's that even if I have a better reason for lynching someone else, if no one's going to buy it and no one's going to join me then it's futitle for me to bang my head against a brick wall. If they're not going to join me they're not going to join me. Most of all I just want to get a scum player lynched.

Uh...?

Did anyone express interest in lynching me at all?

This sounds pretty fake.

@Char: Genuinely confused: Why do you slight scumread me?

What're your reads this game, and why do you care about Charloux scum reading you?

[WeCanSimplyBeOurselves]

Although I just realized that I've fallen into the trap of thinking about who's scum/town if X flips scum/town. This is called pre-flip association, and we should probably avoid engaging in it because it tends to be a house of cards, as well as a waste of time. For example, if I spend too much time talking about Charloux in the event that WCS flips scum, that's worthless if WCS flips town. It would be far better to wait until WCS actually flips, and then talk about who's scum or town based on that.

Instead, let's refocus on Charloux. WCS, you've stated a gut town read on Charloux. Do you think your gut town read outweighs the scummy activity that the rest of us have pointed out?

I don't really believe you "just realized" that even for a second.

Good acting from an experienced player is what I call it. You've moved from a slight town lean to my strongest scum lean.

VOTE: Accountant

The one thing I was most certain about is that Char and Accountant are not scum buddies. It seemed to me like they're perhaps both town talking past each other. After this post quoted above Accountant has moved to the scummiest lean for me and Char has thereby gone from a slight town lean (along with accountant who has now became scum) to a much stronger town lean. They'er not both scum and not only does Char seem townish to me, and genuinely frustrated at people taking his jokes too seriously rather than acting, but Account does appear to be acting and if they're not both scum and Accountant is, IMO, very likely to be scum then that makes Char a strong town lean along with Accountant being a strong scum lean, IMO.