Micro 675: Heroes of the Storm uPick - Game Over!

[borkjerfkin]

nevermind i initially misunderstood 558 in the context of the AJ's reads.

I'm holding where I am for the moment. I'll be around later tonight to maybe get more in depth.

Obv Alt replacement would be pro-town as fuck though.

[borkjerfkin]

I thought I'd saw something in AJ's 558 that alleged he never scumread Pie at all just was put off by the read on him but I don't think he's actually saying that now so don't worry about it

[borkjerfkin]

I didn't have Seiko town yet at that point in the game, I don't think that's unreasonable to have them where they are there (they're town though)

Really don't see scum Charloux making #578; I realize that's a really, really easy to fake post, but the timing gives no real scum benefit to make that post since he's 100% not the lynch target today if he doesn't speak up.

I like AJ town more on this page.

Unimpressed w/ pers so far as there is fuckall reasoning for anything yet but very neatly ranked reads somehow; reads could easily indicate that he's just fitting in with what others have said as AJ pointed out.

[borkjerfkin]

i'm holding here, esp based on 605

[borkjerfkin]

????????
I don't have multiple abilities. I'm just a town bodyguard.
Flavor is Medivh.

Somewhat questionable matching with flavor imo, medivh's W is a temporary damage nullification barrier on a player. I don't see how that fits bodyguard.

He's got plenty of options for investigative with raven form or blocking with either poly bomb or ley line seal, commute or redirect w/ portal.
bodyguard of all things for medivh seems really weird

Also I don't know about others but my ability/abilities are named after my HOTS ability, not a mafia role

[borkjerfkin]

I'm not the one who said that, pretty sure that was OA.

[borkjerfkin]

Because I actually don't agree with that.

It's definitely not how I design U-picks.

[borkjerfkin]

1. Waiting for everyone's picks to come in. (9/9)
2. Creating setup.

I mean

[borkjerfkin]

who are you talking to/about

[borkjerfkin]

he takes EVERYTHING as something bad.

Agree that this is a problem.

[borkjerfkin]

I can protect a player from all kills and I die, which may suggest there is an sk.

there isn't

[borkjerfkin]

why did your role make you think sk? just curious

[borkjerfkin]

Ah.

[borkjerfkin]

UNVOTE:

goddammit it's happening again

[borkjerfkin]

i think someone who made that up off the cuff isn't hyperanalyzing the meaning of the wording of it

[borkjerfkin]

agree it doesn't necessarily make him town, although a scum bodyguard would be a cruel joke here

actually knowing for sure that we have a vig (who i would probably tell never to shoot in this setup barring unconventional circumstances) would make me strongly suspect this claim was scum

[borkjerfkin]

well, if we end up at evens then they can shoot

[borkjerfkin]

if we don't have a vig, i would find it hard to believe this claim isn't town though

[borkjerfkin]

Meh I don't know I guess it's possible he did make it up

[borkjerfkin]

everyone seems to be posturing so hard at this point that changes in gamestate don't really change their mind on anything =/

[borkjerfkin]

i think i'm going back into retirement after this game

[borkjerfkin]

Ok I'm getting weirded out

My role pretty much lets me prove I'm town tomorrow, so if you're town and lynch me, don't say I didn't warn you.

"Pretty much lets you prove" or "lets you prove"

[borkjerfkin]

basically i'm asking: it lets you prove you're town tomorrow, is it anti-town to talk about it now?

If you really think it is then so be it, but I want that on record in triplicate right now.

[borkjerfkin]

Are we really getting off of shadow because he claimed? What if it's a fakeclaim? What if it was a provided fakeclaim?

I'm attempting to discuss that

[borkjerfkin]

I don't want to lynch persivul today anyway, I don't see us needing to dig into his role day 1

you're not the only person in the game

[borkjerfkin]

I still a little want to lynch shadow because bodyguard medivh is really hamfisted

does anyone else's role not match their ability in HOTS well? Mine is fine.

[borkjerfkin]

"Pretty much lets you prove" or "lets you prove"

Pretty much, which is why I said that. It's a role that's town probably 95%+ of the time, but it technically could be mafia.

I suppose that will do

[borkjerfkin]

Please strongly consider 666 when you deal with Pers tomorrow

VOTE: S_S

[borkjerfkin]

it wasn't bad, it's not definitely townflail. It's not really flaily at all tbh.

i don't really know what else to do at this point is my thoughts

[borkjerfkin]

also remember scum can action + kill in this setup from the start (it's in the rules)

so if the explanation ends up being "i wouldn't be able to kill and do this" from anyone, it's bullshit.

[borkjerfkin]

Medivh has a shield as far as i know, so why is the bodyguard claim a bad one? If that doesn't match, then my actions don't fit quite either.

bodyguard implies he's sacrificing himself; how does the shield lend itself to self sacrifice?

like varian taunt; there's a bodyguard role.

[borkjerfkin]

absolutely we're not lynching you, yeah.

[borkjerfkin]

maybe

the day before a 3p lylo to control who scum has to kill or a chance at ending the game.

maybe.

[borkjerfkin]

because i think he's definitely town now and i want scum to have to think long and hard about getting rid of him ^^

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: dunn

[borkjerfkin]

I want a good reason why his claim makes him town. Bork and Syryana

i think it's pretty clear from my posts the last few pages that i don't have one.

[borkjerfkin]

how does pie feel about dunn meta, considering the fakegod game they both recently got out of?

[borkjerfkin]

from his scum game there i dont really think he looks like this game here or any of the town games i read, tbh.

[borkjerfkin]

This ia kind of why i dont meta unless i am really really familiar with the player

[borkjerfkin]

did you at all read that post in context?

cause it looks like no

[borkjerfkin]

same. let's finish hashing out what needs to be hashed out before tomorrow.

[borkjerfkin]

I don't agree that Persi's soft claim is reason to give him another day; it is absurdly easy for scum to just vaguely claim "my role makes me town tomorrow" and then claim something along the lines of "herp derp I was roleblocked".

If we don't lynch SS, I may have a solution to this.

[borkjerfkin]

then I don't, lol.

[borkjerfkin]

AJ's last couple pages have seemed on the level enough to the point that I don't really want to consider him today.

I agree he had a scumread on you, I just think in his mind he's just not that able to discern between a bad read and a scum motivated one and as such it's not a strong read

my kid is sick i possibly have to deal with that, we'll see

[borkjerfkin]

I don't really know what to say to this. I disagree on principle with any kind of "let a scum read get to night phase because night actions will sort them out", because there are just too many things that can go wrong with night actions and in a role madness setup it's pointless to even attempt to enumerate and plan around them.

That might be true. Too much info has leaked on Day 1 for this to be that foolproof.

[borkjerfkin]

There's no reason to lynch persivul if he has the ability to make himself obvious town.

The thing I am wary about is all he is saying is that he'll be able to prove he's a role that tends to go to town (much) more than scum

that's not exactly foolproof

[borkjerfkin]

'set to be lynched'?

[borkjerfkin]

Pie: let's try his another angle; how sure are you that S_S s town outside of that you think the wagon on him is ass?

that is the one thing that is making me not blindly sheep you at this point

[borkjerfkin]

i feel like 460 is null because it's just addressing points on him; i feel like he's going to try to downplay those regardless of alignment.

also dunn thinks that's a misrep of his stance.

[borkjerfkin]

'set to be lynched'?

He wasn't under pressure

untrue; AJ, SxN and SS wanted to lynch him, I expressed interest

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: Pers

I'll be honest, I am trying to squint and see town tells from SS and I barely have anything. I don't think much has changed about him for me since I posted my read list.

This is a sheep from me to you because I trust you more than I trust anyone on the S_S wagon.

[borkjerfkin]

I voted dunn because I hated how he handled the Charloux situation, like he was testing to see if anyone was gonna bite on lynching Char, a blatantly antitown thing to do, especially if the progression goes

we as town decide to uncover lynch target -> char reveals ss -> ss is town -> ss gets NKed before lylo -> now we're down someone who was pretty obviously town and scum can't kill without having to deal with some consequences

[borkjerfkin]

the thing I really, really hate the absolute most about Persi is his reaction to Charl's claim.

that just isn't how town would react. at all. I read it purely as him hoping to test the waters to see if a Charl lynch is possible.

p-edit: thank you. at this point I guess we just wait for Syr and then one other person.

It's another huge reason I'm reading AJ as town now. I loved his reaction to Charloux

[borkjerfkin]

I'm still sus of syr because he's got the same kind of selective response thing that dunn has going on

maybe i'm too demanding

[borkjerfkin]

dunno piescience managed it just fine

[borkjerfkin]

oddly enough 330 is the post that looks towniest to me from SS, mainly because I think it has no agenda behind it and it doesn't attempt to posture, it's just "I'm wary of him because I've been burned"

that is about all i have

[borkjerfkin]

I still think dunn's 351 and 352 are really awkwardly timed and filled with a level of certainty that he never even hinted at at any point in the game before then.

I want notty to weigh meta (and show me a little more than vague tonal stuff) against that.

It doesn't help that he apparently used first vote of the day on somehow who i am about as positive as i can be is town. I'm guessing that his power isn't very good for whoever he used that vote on.

[borkjerfkin]

It doesn't help that he apparently used first vote of the day on

someone*

who i am about as positive as i can be is town. I'm guessing that his power isn't very good for whoever he used that vote on.

[borkjerfkin]

I would also expect clever scum to try to start a counterwagon from town onto town; hell check the EoSD scum PT i'm pretty sure I talk about that there

[borkjerfkin]

Still waiting for an answer as to why shadow's claim warranted unvotes: bork and syr

You have the only answer you're getting from me

[borkjerfkin]

sticks and stones

[borkjerfkin]

guess so

[borkjerfkin]

Ns does not post like this as scum. I promise.

[borkjerfkin]

Ns does not post like this as scum. I promise.

They can't adapt their current game to their past meta?

That is far more of an emotional battle for these two particular players than i think you realize

[borkjerfkin]

What changed your mind on ss?

[borkjerfkin]

How about syry or oxford? Can you go there?

Having issues sorting both slots although ravens last contributions before today seemed town

[borkjerfkin]

I gotta drive in to work

[borkjerfkin]

I think the claim is just not really alignment indicative. Esp if it goes away at LyLo -- I don't see why there couldn't be a scum DV with that restriction

also:

"On D2 and D3, I get an extra vote."

Does it actually say this or are you just commentating this part?

[borkjerfkin]

this has been a huge bust of a day 1 for me, I have no strong expectations of anyone flipping scum and kinda just wanna move forward. not really sure what else to do.

I almost do want to flip S_S because it would alter Dunn's trajectory and might allow me to get a better read

[borkjerfkin]

I just find it odd it would mention those days in specific, considering D3 could be LyLo.

[borkjerfkin]

I have, but only in larger games.

[borkjerfkin]

@pie/ns/aj - would like your thoughts on last page or so.

[borkjerfkin]

i think most issues were with your predecessor

ugggghhhh dammit

[borkjerfkin]

i don't agree with pie that your jump on Charloux is bad

[borkjerfkin]

UNVOTE: almost lunch time, i need to reread some stuff

[borkjerfkin]

the only way this game makes any sense if you and dunn are both town (our interaction last night is making me rethink that scumread too) is that it's some combo of (syr, tob, ss)

[borkjerfkin]

Really would take SxN, Char, AJ to the bank as all town right now.

[borkjerfkin]

Are you still scumreading pers or no

[borkjerfkin]

VOTE: shadow

I need to take a step back from this game

@pie: i am just gutreading pers town from our interactions this past page. I don't have similar feelings about shadow and i still don't trust the claim as it feels wrong for that ability. Sorry.

P-edit: eh

[borkjerfkin]

Remember what i said about visiting tob tonight please

[borkjerfkin]

So pissed i let myself be talked out of that vote

Then again i doubt we'd have gotten 5 on him

VOTE: dunn

Bye

Also sxn is absolutely town now considering whatever dunn was trying to do with that ability

[borkjerfkin]

Really didnt think they would go after char. unfortunate ib a minor way.

So glad we didnt lynch him though.

Also "shadow's claim doesn't make sense" -> flips doctor

[borkjerfkin]

Definitely think syr is a decent pick for scum 2 yeah.


If that is how the power works i bet pers is town.

[borkjerfkin]

Otherwise scum could end a day early. Thats p broken.

[borkjerfkin]

or were you not lying when you said it went away at lylo

[borkjerfkin]

Dunns flip should help gauge power level of his partner, but if done is just the hated inventor then pers scum would mean no blocking or investigative on scum team

[borkjerfkin]

Really? Thats a pretty soft engage on both of us

[borkjerfkin]

The fact that i am grouped in there makes it even more softball of an engage

[borkjerfkin]

I meant syry

Just want an honest and complete reeval today or tomorrow. I will do the same for TOB.

[borkjerfkin]

Are you hated forever or just today?

[borkjerfkin]

it occurs to me that syr's reaction test back at the beginning becomes scum theater that they likely planned if he's scum w/ Dunn

I still would love for TOB to swing.

Maybe.

Is there a playground for our innocent child to swing on, or what could you guys be alluding to here?

this is the type of post i expect against a non buddy

[borkjerfkin]

(meaning TOB, not syr)

[borkjerfkin]

Definitely think syr is a decent pick for scum 2 yeah.

692 makes me think it might not be syry. Need to check syry's ISO re: Dunn, then TOB.

Also notice that Dunn engaged my answer and not syr's

[borkjerfkin]

still think AJ is town that just whiffed D1

[borkjerfkin]

pie, notty especially: I still feel like syr's play is mostly feeling out what everyone thinks around him and strategically voting vs actually attempting to solve the game.

I'm willing to listen to you on why I'm wrong; just not seeing it.

[borkjerfkin]

bye

p-edit: to dunn

p-edit: notty: I know, that's why I called you out specifically. Fair enough.

[borkjerfkin]

pers i'm sure he's read the thread

[borkjerfkin]

would heavily advise everyone to utterly ignore everything dunn says today

[borkjerfkin]

can we talk when I wake up? I still think Persi is very likely the second scum here and I want to talk to you about why when I'm not too out of it to write complete thoughts.

ok.

[borkjerfkin]

That was for the best though, no?

[borkjerfkin]

Dude he knows

[borkjerfkin]

i'm not the biggest fan of it either but it's chump change compared to other body of work we have available.

I still feel like a team made of nothing but voting shenanigans would be underpowered if they all go away at lylo. Dunn's flip should help.

[borkjerfkin]

like if he has a night power in addition to his vote thing then sure, all bets are off

[borkjerfkin]

or he's trolling

it's what i'd do

[borkjerfkin]

Ok i stand corrected lol

Cheers

[borkjerfkin]

pers is probably hated tomorrow

just keep in mind

[borkjerfkin]

fun fact: originally zagara had summon ultralisk and kerrigan had devouring maw

[borkjerfkin]

because i think he's definitely town now and i want scum to have to think long and hard about getting rid of him ^^

also

Spoiler:

[borkjerfkin]

my pet theory was that he bombed the NK (i figured he was tyrael based on the crumb about death trait) and that'd have been more thematically appropriate

[borkjerfkin]

or got a vengeshot if NKed

[borkjerfkin]

partners

[borkjerfkin]

Dunn - voted Seiko which will do good things tomorrow

S_S - claimed Medivh: bodyguard
Persivul - Will become obviously town tomorrow
Charloux - wants to be lynched because his ability is pro-town (not quite the same under the premise I started this list for but w/e)

don't like this in hindsight either

1) if he thinks seiko is town he can't possibly think this is good things at this point (could possibly mean that it shows dunn's alignment, as even i once thought, but dunn himself waved this off forever ago in 415)
2) it's a convenient way to take scum out of the lynch pool without having to call him town

[borkjerfkin]

would heavily advise everyone to utterly ignore everything dunn says today

Sound advice...you and your buds should heed it.

i mean don't consider it in your analysis lol
i don't care if you want to engage in some top bantz

[borkjerfkin]

dunn's interactions with syryana pretty much involve no analysis of the latter's play since like page 2

note the difference between 258 (expresses a scumread on SS for this)
and 516 (ignores it)

[borkjerfkin]

Leantown: Seiko, Dunnstral (this one is stagnating a little too but not as much as charleyhorse)

why was dunn ever on the same tier as seiko here esp after pie's big post that got me (and ostensibly syr) to see that they were town

[borkjerfkin]

IMO OA looks worse than Dunn. I know the timing of the wagon is utter shit with it happening when it did and ultimately the reasoning for AJ-town is pretty lame (I'll deal with that in a minute) but I have this really strong feeling that Dunn isn't scum for it. It just feels really genuine to me I guess.

[borkjerfkin]

What are your reads now
What made you vote AJ?

Reads:

Town: Oxford, you
Leantown: Seiko, Dunnstral (this one is stagnating a little too but not as much as charleyhorse)
Was town or leantown but read is stagnating a lot: Charloux
No idea: S_S, Obvious Alt
!Town: Aj

Why vote AJ? A lot of it's gut. Some of it is that I feel he's said a fair number of words without actually saying anything. The whole PL thing was fluffy as fuck and basically led nowhere. The only thing of substance I see in his ISO is the Dunn thing but meh because he was in that game. I also still hate his 181 and he hasn't actually mentioned TOB since. (Actually I lied he said something about them in 231 but that means his whole schtick with them went nowhere so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯)

I'm open to a TOB-alogue with you notty

oh wait this never actually happened

I still would love for TOB to swing.

Maybe.

what is the progression here

[borkjerfkin]

what i actually think happened is he realized people were willing to lynch tob

[borkjerfkin]

I don't want to lynch OA today. I feel I can work with them.

...? Okay, how so? Disregard that slot's been replaced and let's pretend we've got OA sitting around and lurking for a moment. How did you feel you were going to be able to work with OA? I got the exact opposite impression for obvious reasons.

I liked their approach. They seemed open. I feel if I'd wanted to reach out to them, they would have been willing to work with me.

~ Raven

keep in mind that we know for sure that TOB-OA/pers is NOT S-S now and this seems a lot more innocuous

[borkjerfkin]

Leantown: Seiko, Dunnstral (this one is stagnating a little too but not as much as charleyhorse)

why was dunn ever on the same tier as seiko here esp after pie's big post that got me (and ostensibly syr) to see that they were town

also the implicit "let's make sure we lynch charloux first"

[borkjerfkin]

????????
I don't have multiple abilities. I'm just a town bodyguard.
Flavor is Medivh.

I refuse to believe you have a role PM that says you're Medivh, town bodyguard. My PM has character, character flavor title, ability name, etc.

Somewhat questionable matching with flavor imo, medivh's W is a temporary damage nullification barrier on a player. I don't see how that fits bodyguard.

He's got plenty of options for investigative with raven form or blocking with either poly bomb or ley line seal, commute or redirect w/ portal.
bodyguard of all things for medivh seems really weird

This is a reasonable statement, but I'm more in tune with your earlier line of thought that Foxy had roles and fit picks to roles.

UNVOTE:

goddammit it's happening again

@Mod: you have 2 entries for Persivul in your vc

UNVOTE: for now.

S_S - claimed Medivh: bodyguard

This also looks like he got more turned around by my reaction than was overcome by a fit of paranoia. doesn't mention anything that was said, just the claim

[borkjerfkin]

Pedit: bork you're doing that thing you accused someone (Dunn I think?) of doing yesterday where you're fitting evidence to a conclusion

Oh?

[borkjerfkin]

Dunn reacted to me calling him scum and pushed a scum motivated case

I am working from a scum flip

[borkjerfkin]

obvtown

Obvtown huh

[borkjerfkin]

Why is this confbias and not "i have more info today than i did yesterday"

[borkjerfkin]

What was obvtown about dunn

[borkjerfkin]

Oh he just hammered didnt he

[borkjerfkin]

Because you're wrong.

even if i'm wrong, you're accusing me of fitting evidence to a conclusion, not following evidence to the wrong conclusion. why?

[borkjerfkin]

i mean maybe i'm just wrong and it's pers i guess

pretty sure it's not TOB, not AJ
it's definitely not seiko. please don't vote seiko ever.

[borkjerfkin]

I thought it was going to give Seiko an extra vote or something, I don't remember seeing anything to suggest otherwise?

other than he was obviously scumreading seiko the whole day?

[borkjerfkin]

Six of one, half a dozen of the other imo. I don't think the evidence I've left in thread should lead to the conclusion you arrived at.

they are definitely not six of one half dozen of the other.

the latter sentence: i mean you're going to say a variant of this as either alignment so i don't know what to say to this other than it isn't helping me see that i'm wrong

[borkjerfkin]

who's scum syr

[borkjerfkin]

cool 8v1 gg

[borkjerfkin]

uh

[borkjerfkin]

vc please?

[borkjerfkin]

darn-o

we'll get em next time

[borkjerfkin]

Why do you like syr now

[borkjerfkin]

Read his ISO and TOB's, his was worse. He seemed less likely to be Dunn's partner in the early part of the game, but more likely later. Plus VCs - he popped up as fourth man on a wagon more than once.

Oh, like for scum. K

[borkjerfkin]

being a doublevoter makes you town particularly when it goes away in LyLo.

You are right, it doesn't make him town.

Finding it hard to picture him on a team with dunn though.

[borkjerfkin]

meh, i don't feel like that's a strong indicator.

[borkjerfkin]

i'm not ruling pers out either to be perfectly clear. he's considerably more likely than any of sxn, tob, aj.

[borkjerfkin]

Baited breath.

Baited.

[borkjerfkin]

I agree i dont like that progression either. Would like it way less if dunn were town.

P-edit: i fucking know dude do you not remember the thing with OA earlier in the game lol

[borkjerfkin]

Gg. meta is officially dead to me.

Maybe id then have focused more on what you were saying vs how you were saying it

[borkjerfkin]

Seiko claim deserved more scrutiny than it got, if nothing else

[borkjerfkin]

was mostly metaing notscience, not pie

and grats if it works for you

[borkjerfkin]

Stay classy