Newbie 1863: Rugby - Game Over

[Oxy]

A vote for Flicker is a vote for the Mafia!

hmmm

[Oxy]

that was funny ngl ;P

[Oxy]

Then VOTE FLICKER!

I'm probably paranoid, but can you please do an unvote?
I think bolded text Vote <person> counts as an actual vote? lolol

[Oxy]

I don't think it counted since it's in a spoiler, but just in case.

oh, derp, you are right.

[Oxy]

Flicker, you were consistently town reading nauci/brass until around post 770.

Have you gone back and looked at Nauci's play to see if it looks scummy in retrospect?

[Oxy]

I might be convinced to sleep, but I am (perhaps foolishly) worried that it will be me that eats dirt at this point.

[Oxy]

I keep meaning to start drafting posts in google drive for exactly that reason

but then I never do

sorry, elephant

[Oxy]

We've been here a week, and I'm getting restless.

town:
Oxy
Elephant
Brass

Unconfirmed:
teacher
flicker
meji

I'm going to vote flicker at the end of the post, putting both teacher and I on flicker.

If both teacher AND flicker are town, scum will coordinate and hammer for the win.

If either of them are not town, scum won't be able to hammer.

Within a day-ish, the lack of a hammer will confirm the following:

from mypov: It will confirm a minimum of one scum in {teacher, flicker}
from flicker's pov: It will confirm one scum in {teacher, oxy}
from teacher's pov: 1 scum in {flicker, oxy}
from {meji, brassherald, elephant} pov: 1 scum in {teacher, flicker, oxy}

If you are town, please don't add your vote to the wagon.

VOTE: Flicker

[Oxy]

that's reasonable, go for it

[Oxy]

teacher, brass or oxy

Except I haven't really decided who I like best as I'm not sure whether I can buy teacher now

Could you please give a little more on your thought process surrounding teacher?

You said in another post that you could believe that NK jailed him to protect him, and later in this post you still have him in your lynch pool.

I'm curious what other aspects of his play you find scummy/townie, or anything else to help me understand your thought process on his slot.

[Oxy]

and some aspects of NK play seemed curious

which parts, exactly?

[Oxy]

@Oxy: In what world is your gambit better than sleeping? In other words, why did you choose this?

@teacher because this is pretty much where I am at right now, mate ;P

I think the team is either Flicker/Teacher or Flicker/Meji at this point.

[Oxy]

I've still got like a 2% paranoia about {meji, teacher} but I'm thinking flicker is a fine lynch

[Oxy]

@brass and Oxy, re:Meji/Flicker team - why doesn't the D2 run-up on meji disqualify this? Flicker was a part of that vote.

I don't think busing is impossible

that said, I reread that vote sequence on meji:

>teacher puts the second vote on meji
>flicker puts meji to L-2
>oxy puts meji to L-1
>teacher unvotes and claims tracker

teacher here is protecting his partner meji? - When I said that I'm pretty much with brass on meji/flicker or teacher/flicker, the part where I'm not with him is that I think meji + teacher is a possibility

That's what is making this so hard. All three of them are projecting scum. If I could find one town, gg

[Oxy]

same thing with meji on teacher btw

>meji gives reason to scum read teacher
>oxy fleshes out that reasoning
>elephant and brass look like they could be willing to accept a teacher lynch
>meji retracts their reasoning to scum read teacher, but continues to keep him in their lynch pool

[Oxy]

VOTE: teacher
i still prefer this to flicker, actually

[Oxy]

The reason I didnt play through Oxy's gambit after my reflection is primarily thinking through the after-effects. Oxy was getting the board to not think about Brass, but focus on three slots including himself -- which you and Brass had locked town. After the gambit, with one confirmed scum in oxy, me, flicker, I am almost certainly the mislynch because your suspicions have been confirmed and Meji/Flicker's heightened. Sure, the possibility brass might be teamed elsewhere also played a role, but this was my major concern -- that indicting (flicker me oxy) led inevitably to my lynch rather than Oxy's, even if it did increase his appearing guilt.

Yes, the goal of the gambit would have been to focus town's attention onto a smaller subset of players with the goal of eventually lynching a high scum-equity player in you or flicker.
100% correct.

And so long as we're just throwing shade, I can't imagine why scum!teacher wouldn't want to do it ;P

[Oxy]

I really do enjoy you and look forward to purgatory.

Spoiler:

also same

[Oxy]

show me why it's got to be meji + flicker

or, less likely, why it's elephant - and don't include this game day because i can't scum read elephant for scum reading you

[Oxy]

But Im largely done with trying to argue it.

Yeah, I'm ready for some votes

[Oxy]

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass.

I would completely support this to prove that there is at least one in {brass, teacher, flicker}

[Oxy]

I don't want to knock your analysis - i think you make a number of excellent observations.

I don't think you should consider teacher not being able to reference his crumb when evaluating a possible scenario.

Scum!teacher should have had a good understanding of what this day would look like when making his crumb

And could be expected to make a similar crumb for whomever he chose to claim as his target.

[Oxy]

But who the crumbing is on is pretty AI, I think. Does Scum!me crumb Scum!flicker, drawing attention to the team?

yes, you could have done this. In no way is this out of your scum range. why would it be? you gave a no result.

[Oxy]

And could be expected to make a similar crumb for whomever he chose to claim as his target

Seriously man? I had to be able to at least CLAIM an attempt to communicate with NK (if not actually try to communicate with him). Thus, all of the hypothetical other crumbs would have to be relatively large, like the Flicker one was. I took pains to write that post somewhat weird, so that it would seem off and make NK dig at it further, and also have a post soon after it further hint at crumbs/attempts to communicate (the response to Thor).

I truly challenge you. Search through my afternoon posts and try to find another similar crumb. I didnt leave one.

I'm not saying that scum!you would have left multiple crumbs to keep his options open, though you might. I don't know.

I'm saying that scum!you probably wouldn't deviate the following day from whatever crumb he made.

Thus, had you chosen to claim a result on meji, you would have probably left a meji crumb.

I'm not arguing that it makes you scum. It was a very narrow point aimed at a very narrow subset of elephant's analysis, and I don't think that arguing it made you any more or less scummy in elephant's eyes. Why even argue the point?

[Oxy]

why is who does the night kill relevant?

It only seems relevant in a world where we know that NK either did, or did not jail teacher.

If he did jail teacher, it proves teacher didn't do the night kill, making this argument relevant.

But we don't know that to be a fact, and it's likely that he didn't, so it's not relevant.

that said, I'm getting really close to just effort reading teacher as town.

Please don't take that as a reason to post more because I have to take everything from here on as wifom

[Oxy]

I don't really want to do a full search through nauci's iso again right this second. Here is one example of a post that I found from her that I think comes far more frequently from town than from scum. Below it is an example of such a post from an earlier game of mine. It also came from town.

Quick comment is that I find it super weird how there has been very little talk about me. Every moment I was too ill to properly post I was sure that I'd come back to a thread full of people FOSing me because I usually FOS lurkers super hard. Maybe I missed it, but I'm pretty shocked to find that (outside of meji's inexplicable super tunneling) only teacher has cased me and irrelephant questioned me. I'm not sure what this means alignment wise yet, though.

I fail to follow - your argument is that you're town who is easy to mislynch so it's strange that scum aren't trying to mislynch you.
That's functionally an argument that you're scum - explain?

No I said exactly what I meant.

It's weird for people to not have pressed me for lurking from a scumhunting perspective. Obviously no one knows for sure if I'm town, so it's weird that more people didn't pressure me about being away. Analyizing whether or not people are FOSing me is important data that can be done w/o saying I'm casing myself, because my alignment and the perception of my alignment are separate.

one thing i will say from doing a thread search is that it's interesting how nobody seems to have mentioned my slot beforehand. i really don't know what it means yet, if anything. if i had to guess i'd say it might cast the SEs/IC in a more suspicious light, but that's just speculation.

Your slot is a newbie-slot that site-flaked before they even confirmed their alignment. Not really sure what you're expecting people to read into that?

i didn't expect people to "read into it", it's just the fact that my slot seemed to have just been ignored, and it was 4 whole days before it was replaced. it's just strange to me – i would have expected at least a few more mentions than i've found. my baseless theory is that the more experienced players who perhaps should have called for it to be replaced or prodded earlier didn't because an empty slot benefits them as scum, but like i said – just speculation.

[Oxy]

I'm not happy with a Flicker lynch

thanks for sharing.
wish you would give more

[Oxy]

hmmm...

everyone in my lynch pool wants to lynch brass.

How about, no.
whichever one of you is town needs to get woke

[Oxy]

time is getting short on this list. We need to lynch someone.

Brass and elephant - I need you guys in here over the next couple days

[Oxy]

good. Now we can put the Elephant + Oxy theory to bed.

[Oxy]

I think you all are voting her from lingering suspicion of me.

No, sir. Flicker has consistently been a scum read of mine since the start of this game? I should have pushed her lynch harder day 1, but James made it really difficult to help defend him.

[Oxy]

My problem is Flicker. I can’t see her with Meji with the day 2 vote to L-1. I don’t think with your suspicions from D1 she was in a strong enough position to bus that early, without a NK.

She wouldn’t have gained much town cred for a follower vote.

Are you sure? Because you're giving her a lot of cred. And you were giving strong credit to associations by the time of that vote, were you not?

[Oxy]

prodding flicker, brassherald.

[Oxy]

okay so elephant + oxy is off the table

[Oxy]

Teams that we know aren't a thing from this voting pattern (by this evening, let's say):
Oxy + Elephant
Oxy + Flicker
Elephant + Flicker

p.edit it's teacher that is voting brass with meji, not flicker. so it's the above teams that can be excluded without a hammer

[Oxy]

So now the question for me is,

Do scum!team {Teacher, Meji} prove that there is at least one scum in {teacher, Meji, Brass} when I'm saying never lynch brass, and you're saying that you don't think brass is scum?

-> If they can't convince us to vote brass, they can expect me to argue to lynch within {teacher, Meji}, which would ensure that scum is lynched.

This seems... rather unlikely.

[Oxy]

From my PoV, if {teacher, Meji} is no longer a possible team, that confirms scum!Flicker

and possible teams are:
{Flicker, teacher}
{Flicker, Meji}

[Oxy]

I mean it could be another way of trying to get a no lynch compromise.

You mean scum!team {teacher, meji} do this as a way of trying to deadlock us into not lynching? How would that work?

[Oxy]

so in their minds things would go,

-teacher and meji vote brass
-you, brass and I vote in {meji, teacher}
-flicker chooses to no lynch rather than vote in {meji, teacher}

I guess that's possible. Is flicker strongly town reading both meji and teacher? I'll go check.

[Oxy]

(Flicker: you've asked "what does scum meji have to gain from townreading me?" and if you're town the answer is pocketing)

To what end? To re-direct me to a different mislynch? To actually end the day without a lynch, despite posts opposed to the idea? The only plausible goal I see for scum!Meji to townread me is to make the mislynch machinations from their partner less suspicious, because five people scum-reading a slot at this point means either someone is (soft)bussing their partner (unlikely) or all the townies are wrong (very possible).

Although, thinking more, I suppose the other, more obvious option is to prevent me from voting them...

I'm similarly inclined to bring a player to L-2 - brass. But, before that, I think I need to go through my scum team analysis and put Meji back in the mix. I also think I'll go through the scenario of brass being town, just to be thorough.

Okay, so flicker is strongly town reading teacher, and is strongly town reading (but preparing to reevaluate) meji.

Damn, I guess they could be trying to force a no lynch.

[Oxy]

@teacher From your PoV, possible teams are exactly,
{Brass, Flicker}
{Brass, Oxy}

Is that a fair reading? (I just skimmed your iso, and want to make sure I have it right)

[Oxy]

@teacher also, could you point me to your post explaining why brass is lock scum?

I can't seem to find it in your iso

[Oxy]

@Oxy: I think teacher explains his lock scum brass theory in the post he voted for him in (post #1006).

Thanks, Flicker!

[Oxy]

alright, I don't buy the whole double vote for a no lynch play. It seems awfully contrived.

I'm pretty confident it's just teacher + flicker.

I guess we will find out.

VOTE: flicker

[Oxy]

I didn't see the p.edit but you and I are in the same spot, elephant.

Meji + teacher is possible, but flicker + teacher is the better bet.

[Oxy]

Looks like we're going to get some extra time today, anyway, teacher. Brass looks like he's lurking out.

Which would be a town tell in my mind - scum!brass would is one mislynch away from a win with 2 members of town reading him as town (by both your reasoning, teacher, and my own).

[Oxy]

As soon as two votes from town are on town scum is gonna hammer regardless of their “reads”.

truuuuue

[Oxy]

Oh sweet - hey quick

[Oxy]

I hope you'll read the whole game - it's not too long, but it's dense.

Feel free to skip 100% of James' posts. I promise you won't miss anything useful, and you'll safe yourself a lot of hassle.

(no offense, james.)

[Oxy]

Agreed. It's possible that teacher, meji just haven't synced up yet to hammer, but it's unlikely. team is exactly flicker + teacher.

[Oxy]

or flicker + meji. fuck I hate this triangle.

[Oxy]

I want to explore this further, because the major thing holding me back from Flicker is fear of a brass-meji team. Oxy, why would this be a towntell from a slot saying he's sick of mafia, and who has shown only fits and spurts of activity (and getting townread for it)? It was in part Elephant's shift to aggressiveness that made me suspect him. If brass came on all bells and whistles last week/weekend after taking Sat-Tuesday off, it would have been a red flag for me. Lurking was thus NAI.

Mate, your post where you voted Brass noted that he had adopted his predecessor's pattern of lurking as a reason to scum read him. You don't get to have that one both ways, so pick a side (we're at war).

I believe him when he said he was sick of mafia, but I also believe him when he said he felt that this game was holding him back from a break.

That implies a feeling of responsibility to finish the game. Obviously, his need for the break overwhelmed his sense of responsibility to the game.

I think that your average person would feel MORE responsibility if they replaced into a scum slot in this position because they wouldn't want to screw over that one individual who has gotten very close to a scum victory by lurking out and looking scummy.

A town player, otoh, might feel that responsibility to the game in general, but not to an individual because they don't know who is town, making that connection less real.

I'm not explaining it well, but it makes sense in my head.

p.edit I probably wouldn't discount meji + quick, if I were you with your reads, until quick posts

[Oxy]

I don't if I have mentioned this, but there is serious cogdis between my head and my gut on teacher.

my gut is screaming town, but my head is trying to beat it into submission with logic surrounding his result and his recent read on elephant and me.

in recent games when this happens, my gut is usually right.

tl;dr im really liking flicker for today's lynch

[Oxy]

Okay, quick we're in one of two setups:
JK vs goon + goon
or
JK + tracker vs RC + goon

the JK was player NK15, who was the NK last night.
N1 he jailed Thor, preventing his night kill.
N2 he jailed ???


Teacher claimed tracker yesterday - after NK15's claim.
N1 he tracked Thor, who obviously went no where (jailed VT)
N2 he tracked Flicker, but claims no result due to being jailed.

Let me pull up the posts surrounding the claims

[Oxy]

NK15 claim:
388, 389, 440, 443

We're all in agreement that NK was town reading teacher during D2. With that in mind, consider NK's last few posts:
698, 700, 717, 730, 736

[Oxy]

Teacher's claim
508, 511, 512

Don't get too bogged down in the math. we determined later that it was far less damning to Thor than teacher presents here. But then we lynched Thor anyway LOL (proplay)

[Oxy]

Irrelephant is my strongest town read in this game.
As a result, with you and meji not hammering, Flicker is confirmed scum fmpov.

You are my second strongest town read, leaving teacher and meji as possible partners for teacher.

I've been going back and forth between these three all of this game day, so don't ask me which it is. Gut says meji, head says teacher because of the NK's thought process at eod2. It's hard for me to imagine NK15 actually jailing teacher last night.

[Oxy]

You are my second strongest town read, leaving teacher and meji as possible partners for

Flicker.

ebwop

[Oxy]

Meji's iso is not long. I suggest you read it.

[Oxy]

Did the JK leave any crumbs on who they would be JKing?

Read the following posts. They are the closest we have to crumbs.
We're all in agreement that NK was town reading teacher during D2. With that in mind, consider NK's last few posts:
698, 700, 717, 730, 736[/quote]

[Oxy]

Did the JK leave any crumbs on who they would be JKing?

Read the following posts. They are the closest we have to crumbs.

We're all in agreement that NK was town reading teacher during D2. With that in mind, consider NK's last few posts:

698, 700, 717, 730, 736

ebwop

[Oxy]

oh man, we're actually going to win this game. It was looking doubtful for a while.

teacher voting flicker will confirm team to be meji + flicker

[Oxy]

Its probably just going to prove it's you and quick, since it's apparently not quick and teacher

you played well! This was a great game for the strategy you employed.

[Oxy]

Could you place your vote in a less scummy manner next time? I'm sitting here just waiting to find out that this was all a teacher + meji slooow roll

[Oxy]

wtf is all of this 'I' shit like you're not a part of town

[Oxy]

no dont unvote

[Oxy]

I don't actually think that scum!teacher voting scum!flicker makes a post like that.

And I don't believe you slow rolled me

[Oxy]

I'm not voting Flicker

that's fine. I wouldn't expect you to hammer your partner

[Oxy]

@Quick Flicker is at L-1 btw

[Oxy]

ayyyy good lynch

[Oxy]

so uh, what was the team?

[Oxy]

oh i see now

[Oxy]

huh, whatcha gonna do

[Oxy]

okay great, just one more game to finish up and i can get out of this cess pool

[Oxy]

everyone in here was terrific tho. well played gg, was much fun

[Oxy]

I appreciate the invitation. I might check it out. =)

[Oxy]

My reads certainly weren't great, but this town could also have done with better town telling.

-Meji, though he had great reads, never bothered to explain any of them, and ended the day believing the team was me + quick. What about that should have made me reevaluate?

-Flicker waffled and fence sat the entire game. I should have eventually reevaluated this when it never stopped. This one is def my bad.

-Thor refused to reevaluate on James, who I read correctly. He strongly town read elephant, which strengthened my read on flicker because I figured thor would get at least one read right. And then he made a hard switch from a town read on me to a scum read on me based on a tracker claim that didn't have to exist and the same dubious wagon analysis that he had chided me for in D1.

-NK15 hard town read teacher and then jailed him. This can't have been the optimal play to take away the tracker result when you know that you're going to be NK'd, AND you make it clear that you're town reading the tracker claim.

-teacher I read correctly until I reevaluated after NK15 jailed him. Also, that push on thor, while obviously having a town origin (and i was town reading teacher after that) was also consistent with scum. Additionally, thor was scum reading teacher, and teacher seemed like the type of person who would kill off experience.

Nauci slot: ya'll got me, what can I say. I read her d1 town.

elephant slot: the only decent case made on elephant was made by teacher, and it took as part of it's premise that irrelephant AND I were scum together pushing his mislynch. How can that be compelling to my slot?

so yeah, my reads sucked. I'm not sure what specifically should have caused me to reevaluate.

[Oxy]

why did you jail teacher?

[Oxy]

teacher was right that you thought it would clear them? It in no way cleared them...

Why would you think it would?