Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

i'm sufficiently annoyed with NSG's play so far

VOTE: NSG

NSG if i die scumreading you, you get lynched 90% of the time

post some content please

you've posted a reads list and not actually taken any stances or given reasons for shit

[Mathdino]

"i saw oxy do a thing that got math to townread him so i'll do it too"

[Mathdino]

did we just go 14 hours on a saturday with a singular player checking in

[Mathdino]

Intent

[Mathdino]

Gotta lynch someone, may as well be dead weight

[Mathdino]

And skitter30 you don't get to vanity wagon me with 26 hours on the deadline
I don't know if you're trying to stay off both wagons or what
I gave the option to lynch scioness and people chose her counterwagons
Not lynching oxy no matter what you think of my progression on him

[Mathdino]

And where the flying fuck did you get the idea that I thought he was scum for inactivity
The #NoBamboozle post was SARCASTIC
I've been very clear this whole time about why I was scumreading him
The fact that he barely plays the game is icing on the cake

I'm not reexplaining myself to you if you're gonna choose not to read my posts

[Mathdino]

I'll reiterate: I think Draynth is the kind of player that lurks it out as a PR to avoid being NK'd. Unfortunately for him this is the kind of town that suspects lurkers (against the MS meta of not lynching lurkers on D1)

Ms meta should be lynching lurkers tbh

Draynth strikes me as the type that lurks it out whenever things get rough

[Mathdino]

Am I gonna have to towncase this sunuvabitch in the next 20 hours

Or can we just compromise on scioness so we don't have to lynch the lurker and do I don't have to actually nitpick oxys iso

I have intent already, if you wanna stop Draynth wagon you vote scioness

[Mathdino]

Sajj is by vca/gamestate analysis

[Mathdino]

my god oxy's ISO is already on page 2 and has surpassed mine in post count and word count

i'm not getting to this in the next few hours lol

[Mathdino]

What do you think of NSG's scumcase on Draynth?

it certainly was an NSG case wasn't it

i'm less interested in the case and more interested in the fact that skitter seems to be tunneling draynth as not-scum while completely talking past people's real reasons for voting him

it's actually kind of uncomfortable how she keeps framing the draynth wagon as activity-based, and pretty rich that she would accuse NSG of that

^did you like my pivot

[Mathdino]

Yeah I'm tearing my hair out on EOD Skitter. On one hand voting you like that struck me as ridiculous from scum!skitter but otoh it felt like she hadnt read everything properly...?

It was definitely an NSG case
I don't think I'm actually convinced by it, felt very much like fitting evidence to a theory rather than vice versa

Math how would you feel if I said I think one of you and skitter is scum and I have no idea currently which one it is

welcome to NSG cases

i would say you have about a 60% chance of being wrong because skitter is only about 40% scum to me

[Mathdino]

that trajectory is her trajectory in half her games

i read her thought process

[Mathdino]

town but i fucked up recently by not catching her D1 under her geriatric alt
so i'm wary given that people seem to worship my ability to read her

[Mathdino]

welcome to NSG cases

i resent this.

here's a perfect example of what i'm talking about

Spoiler:

Subject: Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

1. Vote / Reads Progression

Let's start back at the start of the game. CES votes llamarble and never explains why. He later calls for dueling marble-marquis wagons, and again never explains why. Llamarble calls him out on this, saying that he doesn't understand why he'd want that as town. This is CES' response:

It's not always about you, 'marble.

He later describes this vote as something he chose to do instead of putting down a serious vote on the marquis wagon.

He calls Marquis the scummiest of the three lurkers (Dunn, Marquis, Wgeurts), and again doesn't explain why. He makes a lot of posts just calling marquis scummy around this time still without explaining why before finally talking about it in 526. What were his reasons? "Awkward tone" and meta from one scumgame in 2015 that he never really explains in any depth. As far as I can tell,

these are still the reasons he's scumreading Marquis

, along with lurking. It goes without saying, but these reasons are both very easily fakeable and are apparently good enough for CES for that single read to last the entire game.

He briefly votes postie, perhaps influenced by marble's questioning of postie in the previous post. He again only explains this much later, saying that postie was more looking good than actually scumhunting. In that same post he says that he obviously agrees with the gist of the eddie case, but that he still thinks it would be an easy thing for postie to focus on if she were scum. All of these opinions are contradictory to eachother.

His Gamma vote comes for Gamma's case in 702, but again he only barely explains this until much later, with a vague comment about Gamma's case being "accusatory" in 823. He goes into more detail in 1567, saying that Gamma was being awkward and looked concerned with how justified his votes were. This is another weak read, and he pretty much entirely drops this point and doesn't bring it up again – you know, after the consensus largely came to be that gamma is town.

I've talked a lot about CES' read on tchill/screenplay, but let's really go over his progression there.
662 – Brings up two points that make tchill scummy, one point that makes him towny. Describes it as a "wagon driven by relatively crude heuristics."
820 – Pretty much doesn't take any stance on tchill, talks about how the lurking doesn't affect his read.
1025 – The swap makes him feel better about the wagon.
1179 – Argues that screen being willing to swap means it's more likely that the tchill slot is scum here.
1185 – When responding to ran, describes how the scumread on postie seems more convincing to him than the eddie part, which "doesn't really sway [him]".
1217 – Hammer.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change but he really didn't in any truly explanatory way. He's said how the odds of hitting scum in tchill went up for him, but the only reasons in his iso for this are the swap and screen's desire to survive.

Day two, back on the marquis wagon. Later, when Tsq asks him why he's not on the eddie wagon when he's stated that he agrees with postie's case, he says that that doesn't help with the goal of lynching two scum. What?

He later jumps on the Eddie wagon with no real indication as to why the switch.

Finally, day three, back on the marquis wagon.

---

Let's examine all of the reasons CES has voted people for, this game:
-Lurking
-Awkward wording
-Looking more good than actually solving the game (this vote never went anywhere, however)
-RVS? (Llamarble)

First of all, these reasons are, as a whole, surface level. It was llamarble who said that if CES doesn't lynch scum then he's probably scum himself – given that this is what CES has been pushing people on, I'm inclined to trust that. Next, all of his scumreads have been opportunistic – on players that looked lynchable (notable is that dunnstral is an exception to this, with a very weak reason from CES – this lends credence to my view of the scumteam). Marquis has always been a viable wagon. Tchill and eddie both actually went through. Gamma looked viable for a bit, and that's when CES voted / scumread him. His postie vote followed llamarble placing a bit of pressure there and again stopped afterwards. It's all agenda-driven.

A quick review of team mafia 2015 indicated that he didn't vote lurkers all the time. He seemed to have fairly well-developed reads that don't compare with his fairly robotic scumhunting this game.

---

2. Undeveloped Townreads

Here's a list of every time i could fine where CES calls someone "town":

662 – He talks about a "nice town tell" from tchill but still evidently scumreads him (if his behavior is anything to go off of).

1179 – Says that i had a "townish line".

1397 – Describes how one of quick's posts shows a pro-town mindset, but ultimately comes to the non-conclusion of "It's not hard to find scummy posts by Lickitung but it's not hard to find townie posts by him either."

1596 – Calls lycan town for scumreading him, calls tsq "sheaey", so wants to sheep llamarble's read on him.

1801 – Says that Ran is his strongest townread.

2223 – Says that davsto generally sounds town, but that he needs to take a closer look. This goes away after davsto votes him.

2610 – Quick is solidly town.

I'm pretty sure that's it. He's barely mentioned a large amount of the playerlist, and for the reads that he has mentioned, his reasons are always self-admittedly weak.

He's keeping his options open.

Look back at team mafia 2015 – a huge difference in how he approaches townreads. He's not playing the same at all, and i'm fairly confident it's because he's scum.

---

3. NKA

Let's examine llama and postie and their relation to cogito ergo sum.

First, llamarble's mentions of cogito ergo sum.
215 – Says to lynch CES in lylo no matter what. Can't imagine why CES called for dueling Marble/Marquis wagons if he was town.
343 – Calls CES null, and makes the point that strong players always appear town early on.
347 – Says again to lynch CES in lylo, mentions that he's been buddied by CES as scum before and to not let it happen this game.
408 – Calls CES the first alternate to his scumreads
516 – Put CES in his scumteam.
537 – Reiterates to lynch CES in lylo.
582 – Says that he could could "easily believe" a scumteam with CES in it.
664 – Same as before.
875 – Lays out a lynch order where CES is first on the chopping block if tchill flips town.
930 – This one is important – says to give CES some time,

but if town isn't winning before LyLo, CES is scum

. He also advocates lynching whoever is left in lylo that should've been nightkilled.
1146 Says that CES should be lower on Ran's readslist.
1160 – Places CES in the category of "don't let live to lylo".

As an aside, Llamarble's thoughts on marquis were that there were decent to very good reasons to townread him, and his lynch order had town leaving him alive until lylo. The llamarble kill day one is a point against marquis scum unless marquis is also scum with one of the people in marble's lynch order.

When it comes to postie, there's very little indication that postie would have gone after marquis and she had me as locktown. Her death clears the way for both of those pushes. This point less directly related to CES scum but still something i'd like to talk about later.

---

Now, a look at cogito ergo sum's use of NKA / his use of dead people's reads.

In 1557, CES says that 1160 would be where we should look given the marble kill, but the readslist in that post was heavily based around tchill being scum. One of the things marble was incredibly adamant on was that we not let CES get to lylo if town isn't winning by then. His readslist also wasn't lynch from the bottom up – he explicitly said that there was scum in the good but hard to read players.

In 2690, he says that if he doesn't care about marble's reads then nobody will as a defense of his TSQ read. Not only is this not true in the first place, but it's kind of a misrepresentation of what marble had made clear – people who are alive at lylo when they shouldn't be need to be lynched. The fact that he doesn't mention this nuance or seem to take it into account doesn't do anything to defend his weak TSQ read, and only furthers the idea of a scumteam there.

Let's look at another TSQ interaction based on marble's reads. In 2742, CES says that he feels good about sheeping marble's townread on TSQ because they know each other in real life and thus marble should have a good idea of how to read him. This again is just selectively choosing parts of what marble said.

2223 – Says that postie was killed because scum preferred to take out a scummier player with unknown reads, when postie had known reads outside of eddie.

2334 – Argues that the postie kill was to make me look better and to give me more sway to steer the lynch away from marquis. What? How does postie being dead, someone who had me as locktown, give me

more

town sway as opposed to less? If the scumteam actually cared about protecting marquis, they probably would've killed the person hard tunnelling him from day one – CES himself. The fact that he doesn't recognize this and this whole point are incredibly disingenuous.

When it comes to what dead townies have said and what the nightkills mean, CES cherrypicks the points that agree with him, ignores the ones that don't and makes disingenuous arguments.

---

4. VCA

I'm confident in saying that cogito ergo sum has voted only town this entire game.

The cogito ergo sum wagon never moves anywhere despite nobody really townreading him. Here are the people who have voted CES:
Day 1 – {Lycan, Ran, NSG}
Day 2 – {Eddie, Lycan}
Day 3 – {Lycan, Davsto, NSG, Ran}

Comparatively, the people who have voted marquis (excluding rvs) are:
Day 1 – {Davsto, Dunn, CES, Llama, Quick, Gamma}
Day 2 – {Ran, Eddie, Gamma, CES, Quick, Dunn}
Day 3 – {CES, Quick, Dunn, Ran, Gamma, TSQ}

The cogito ergo sum wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. The marquis wagon does, the same way the eddie wagon did. If cogito ergo sum were town, his wagon should have taken off at some point during this game, but it hasn't – not even after ran was canvassing pretty hard for it.

---

5. Defense of himself

Cogito ergo sum's defense of himself is notably lacking and inconsistent at times.

1662 – Ran brings up multiple valid points against CES, some of which i've talked about myself. His response is just to call the paragraph lots of spin with little substance and provide some self-meta of him as town.

2003 – His defense of the tchill lynch is to go back to his percentages without going in-depth as to why the percentages changed.

2279 – Discredits my push on him by discrediting both of my teammates' opinions, then tries to reduce my scumread on him to just his being on the lynches.

2534 – People (ran) apparently take this as some incredible reason to townread CES. I've responded to this already, but i'd like to reiterate some points.

CES says that he detailed the nature of his read change on tchill – my point is that his read change is justified with incredibly poor reasoning.
I made the point that he wasn't gamesolving, and he responded that he was solving the game and wasn't interested in "brownie points". He's not solving the game. He's not really coming up with any possible partners for marquis, he's not giving any thoughts as to what happens if he's wrong, he's not really sorting anyone else or looking for townreads (as we've gone over).

2571 – CES argues that scum marquis could just be saying that he townreads CES while a buddy of Marquis' pushes on CES, but he doesn't actually say who that buddy would be. In this same post he also talks about how he didn't like the tchill wagon, inconsistent with what he's been trying to tell me about his reasons for switching.

2690 – Basically completely ignores the question of what happens if marquis ends up being town.

2742 – Again discredits reads from my teammates saying that math is uninvested in the game.

---

6. Conclusion

Cogito ergo sum has exclusively voted town, and has voted the low-hanging fruit in marquis every day so far.

He has almost no townreads – he's keeping his options open.

He's avoided talking about what happens if marquis flips town – again, keeping his options open.

He's selectively and disingenuously used NKA and the reads of dead townies to push things like the marquis wagon.

His wagon doesn't take off because scum don't want it to. This stands in contrast to other town wagons that we've seen in the game.

Cogito Ergo Sum is Scum.

who takes the time to write up cases like this when it's just fitting evidence to a theory, amirite

[Mathdino]

i'm saying that the impression he's getting from your case is playstyle indicative, not alignment indicative

cases are more trash than they are scummy

[Mathdino]

i literally agree draynth is scum though

i had little interest in critically analysing your case

i'm saying that if he got the IMPRESSION that you were fitting evidence to your preconceived notions

that's an effect of how you write your cases, and is irrelevant to
- your alignment
- the validity of the case

i'm not really interested in being your essay editor at this time lol

i'm more interested in your read on scioness actually

[Mathdino]

do we have 2 competing scum wagons

is that where we're at

[Mathdino]

you're never going to get correct reads as long as you hold the view of "never push anything math is willing to push"
especially considering you haven't even done the research to see what my scum self's stance is on how to deal with and interact with my scumpartners
in fact you haven't even seemed to really put that much effort into figuring out my scumpartners at all
majority of the game seems to agree i can't be scum with oxy, so what the fuck is this gamestate, skitter

in other news i get the feeling scum are laughing at me and my reads in the PT :/

still not sure what to do with this game

[Mathdino]

you can't be serious. we have less than 24 hours on the deadline. claim now or you won't have a chance to later

[Mathdino]

You're softclaiming pr already
You guys wanna let him eat nightkill or what?

[Mathdino]

Why does everyone assume I actively hunt for PRs as town
It's not my job
I soft PR as scum specifically to bait that shit

[Mathdino]

We're lynching scioness let's go
If this is wrong, don't townbloc NSG unless she supertowns

[Mathdino]

don't put me in this position, duck

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Scioness

I can be read by my skill

Let's get some flips

[Mathdino]

Also i hope you're not scumreading me for being Team Iron Man

[Mathdino]

What? I didn't ask for a specific role claim wtf

[Mathdino]

you can't be serious. we have less than 24 hours on the deadline. claim now or you won't have a chance to later

This post was made before I registered that he was basically hardclaiming not VT
Also realized you guys can just lynch him if he ever does claim VT so he's not really a threat

[Mathdino]

I'm asking for votes on scioness right now

[Mathdino]

Notably, both scioness and ofrhz have essentially requested a lynch so I doubt we're running into more pr claims
Also you're misusing BoP but w/e

[Mathdino]

I thought he was dragging out what would eventually be a vt claim

Was feeling particularly policy listed at that moment in time

Claiming pr or not pr is different than specific claim

Now am i more likely to be cognizant of the perception of rolefishing as town or scum?

[Mathdino]

I thought he was stalling because he was scum

[Mathdino]

Tfw asking not to be lynched is an acceptable way to crumb pr
Jfc people

[Mathdino]

Wishful thinking, being unsure what to claim due to lack of preparation, etc
Scum claim VT all the time when they don't plan out their claims

[Mathdino]

You guys can't be serious

[Mathdino]

all you had to do was leave me for D2 and let me do my work dodging the nightkill

i hardclaim PR, everyone is that much less likely to be a PR from my POV

[Mathdino]

Mathdino(5) ~ skitter30(84), ruru(166), pinturicchio(98), the worst(389), Draynth(51)

this wagon is most likely all town, possible exception of skitter

scum sees me as a radioactive wagon

i'm NEVER d1 mislynched by scum

[Mathdino]

Draynth(4) ~ northsidegal(104), UglyDuck(62), ofrhz(141), AP(100)
Scioness Sajj(1) ~ Mathdino(235)
Oxy(1) ~ Sunshine13(54)
ofrhz(1) ~ Scioness Sajj(86)


Not Voting (1): Oxy(233)

what does that mean, you ask?

if there ARE scum on my wagon, i'm being retaliatory wagoned for trying to lynch scioness. so something like skitter/scioness. not sure how much sense that one makes.

draynth wagon was scum motivated through and through.

your lynchpool: {UglyDuck, AP, Sunshine, Scioness}

the reasons i had for townreading AP were less valid than i'd hoped upon reconsideration

you wanted mathdino to be townish, congratufuckinglations you've killed me N1 yet again

[Mathdino]

you guys are really bad this game

tfw you get suspected by all the experienced players

now help me fucking solve

[Mathdino]

oh yeah and standard acknowledgement that that was a super solid IC reveal post gj

but also i have to keep up my threatening/aggressive persona in order to get anything done ingame soooooOOOOOOOOOOO

get your votes off me, i policy lynched someone in mylo for tunneling me too hard

[Mathdino]

except we're still vigging that guy so y'all gonna have to get your hands dirty somewhere else

[Mathdino]

oh hell fucking no you are not lynching oxy after fucking up twice on draynth/mathdino

[Mathdino]

my reads are also ass this game

so you tell me

a very large part of me wants to lynch skitter for being terrible but that's probably wrong

my wagon feels town-motivated at its base

my strong townreads are {ruru, pintu} -- these are the ones i'm probably never wrong on

oxy? i literally haven't seen a single case on him that wasn't shit in some way

he's made a bunch of posts i don't think scum make

[Mathdino]

if there's no vig then yeah ofc you lynch him tomorrow

TW is probably town, don't waste your time

help me sort everyone either

A. off my wagon
B. 5th vote and onward on my wagon

[Mathdino]

skitter/sunshine is consistent, yes

[Mathdino]

why are you still giving me the middle flipper

[Mathdino]

middle feather?

anyway anyone who's townreading sunshine should towncase him for me because that townread is slowly waning

[Mathdino]

you know I'll sheep you at EOD
Low key feel stupid listening to a setup spec oriented case. note to self: trust no one and listen to nothing

i've literally been ignoring almost every case made at me over the past 20 pages

what the actual fuck happened

also trust ruru/pintu

[Mathdino]

how did you put skitter30 in your top two townreads for tunneling me all day while actively putting off the notion of metaing me at all

[Mathdino]

wow everyone who posted in this page is playing absolutely awful

i never fucking asked for a specific roleclaim jesus christ ruru i told you that multiple times

i just wanted him to stop pussyfooting and specifically say "i'm a VT" or "i'm a PR"

and i specifically wanted him to say "i'm a VT" so we could just lynch him and get this day over with

[Mathdino]

ruru has an excuse for playing bad in this instance
she's never seen scum-me so yeah it's excusable to think "oh yeah scum-Dino peddles shit setup info as scum" when i've never advocated anything but good setup advice as scum (it's suicide to do otherwise, it's an open setup, you can't read me for setup spec)
it's less excusable to think "Dino is asking what specific power role Draynth is" after i already denied that
but whatever

skitter has no such excuse
her cases on me have been awful all game
like "scumread every single post Dino makes" level awful

[Mathdino]

like yeah blame me for outing draynth sure

but the case on draynth was half policy for not doing shit

and one scumreadable post

no scumcase is all-encompassing and skitter seems to think everything i've done is scum indicative somehow

[Mathdino]

the fact that it's townish to achieve a scumlean on me is fine, like i was partially baiting that with passiveness/laziness because i wanted to go full dictator on D2, not D1

i will however argue it's pretty shit to try to lynch me on D1 all things considered

skitter has gone beyond that into the realm of "50% of all of her content is spent tunneling a Mathdino that she repeatedly says she's uninterested in lynching today, yet spends 0 time trying to find his partners"

like her play has been useless all day as a result

i would HOPE she's better than that, smh

[Mathdino]

not everyone has RC as a daytalk scumbuddy my man

who in this playerlist other than literally me would coach an entire reads list

[Mathdino]

good vote

for anyone who's wondering, pintu is locktown because scum-him notices that i hardpush VIs who tunnel me to oblivion based on Open 714

he doesn't make the same mistake as Drixx, TheGoldenParadox, pintu-back-then, etc

skitter on the other hand is far less likely to be intimidated which is why i'm very ???? about her

in fact i think it's more likely scum-skitter is forced to discredit/reduce the control i have over gamestates because gamesolving etc etc

the rest of the newbies from 1859 would probably stay out of my way as scum (also partially why oxy is likely town. scum-him should be buddying me about now since i'm hard townreading him)

pintu is locktown by setup spec

argued "why would scum pick a vig with mathdino in the game" when pintu is the only one in this game aware of my vig-directing strategy

so pintu is the only one here who would avoid picking vig as scum, yet here he assumes there's a vig already

i'm using my 1-shot governor on pinturicchio thank you very much

[Mathdino]

i'm feeling AP and sunshine and prob NSG tomorrow

if people could dive their ISOs that would be nice

[Mathdino]

i don't have a problem with you guys deferring to me and my meta read on NSG
problem is just that i'm pretty obviously today's nightkill lol
like jailkeeper on me and if i get killed now you know there's no jailkeeper
but i feel like i'm threatening enough to be killed over draynth's PR?

so meta her when i die

the problem with sunshine is we know nothing of his scumrange

he's been playing town as fuck all game but he could just be really good

[Mathdino]

does scum AP predict draynth being a PR (presumably in the daytalk thread) and then out that read in-thread?

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

i mean this is obligatory at this point

[Mathdino]

UNVOTE:

Math anything in particular you want me to address from the last few pages?

yes, reconsider your entire view of the gamestate and get back to me, thanks

and explain why you didn't put in any of the work to meta-read me or partnerhunt for me

[Mathdino]

PRs don't deserve to live amirite

carry on guys

[Mathdino]

VOTE: AP

not_mafia can you catch up on like the last 12 or so pages (or the first 12 or so pages) and get reads

[Mathdino]

a little known fact is that not_mafia actually has >random reads

[Mathdino]

NSG's read on scioness is irrelevant to not_mafia's reads if not_mafia is town

NSG's reads are in general extremely uncomfortable FMPOV

[Mathdino]

did you think AP was a PR and now think that he's significantly less likely to be a PR due to 2 PR claims

[Mathdino]

everyone's townreading someone

by PoE, AP is a coin flip, possibly better

if anyone can claim they're more than 55% confident on any other scumread i'm all ears

[Mathdino]

i hope we all realise that draynth isn't literal conftown though

[Mathdino]

i also have no clue what we're talking about but i'm not anti-town so i'm not even going to ask

[Mathdino]

Town: pintu, ruru

Probtown: TW

Townlean: Oxy, Sunshine

Town for now: Draynth

Vig this: ofrhz

everyone else: {AP, NSG, N_M, skitter, UglyDuck}

in an ideal world we'd get the chance to lynch all 5

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Beefster

if you insist

[Mathdino]

Town: pintu, ruru

Probtown: TW

Townlean: Oxy, Sunshine

Town for now: Draynth

Vig this: ofrhz

everyone else: {AP, NSG, N_M, skitter, UglyDuck}

in an ideal world we'd get the chance to lynch all 5

wow look at that

these are actually sheepable reads

gj mathdino for getting your head in the game

[Mathdino]

no, i still think AP is just 50% scum, which is enough to lynch

also i'm pretty sure welsh jokes are not racist lol

[Mathdino]

VOTE: AP

[Mathdino]

i mean if the flips show pintu is obvscum then that's what the flips show

i also have (hopefully) better reads as the game goes on

[Mathdino]

i think NSG thinks that you play scum like jaydragonking

[Mathdino]

who even is the scum on your wagon AP lol

[Mathdino]

Ofrhz has talked about or spoken directly to The Worst 6 times. This is more than his interactions with Pin and Draynth, and equal to his interactions with Mohab and UglyDuck. Everyone else he has interacted with more. And all of those players are lower activity.

(this is still all through 626, which is as far as I have gotten)

p.edit I'm including that. I'm spreadsheeting the hell out of this game. That's why I'm so behind.

You speak about him more often (6 times) but compare that to Ruru 12 directly, 3 about, Scioness 6/11, Mathdino 28/19, and sunshine 9/4

okay so oxy stuff though

1. does scum oxy explicitly avoid townreading me for the early game yet townread all my townreads

2. does scum oxy fake a tunnel on the worst so hard that he makes a spreadsheet of all of TW's interactions with people to try to hunt for TW's buddies

like wouldn't scum oxy be afraid of running into a brick wall by PoEing himself out of valid scumspects

[Mathdino]

.........

[Mathdino]

i hate myself for not policy lynching this, i really do

VOTE: UglyDuck

the case against lynching him is shit

[Mathdino]

"games where everyone knows each other are townsided" he said

"you won't lynch me on D1 because i'm mathdino" he said

lol.

[Mathdino]

yeah maybe it is oxy after all. idk

[Mathdino]

60%?

that's less than random but it is what it is

my argument is as follows

[Mathdino]

idk AP if there's any time to experiment with shaking up your meta it's in a secret alt

[Mathdino]

in fairness to myself, ofrhz self-voting was legitimately scummy and i still want him vigged

HOW ABOUT THIS GUYS

we could compromise by lynching ofrhz and vigging not_mafia

[Mathdino]

AP have you caught up in full?

[Mathdino]

to be fair i'm not BoP reading you

i just don't have a lot of lynch options right now

have you caught up in full?

[Mathdino]

Paranoid Theory: NSG/Scioness is and always was a thing

[Mathdino]

okay how about this

lynch ofrhz

if town (and especially if quickhammer), vig not_mafia

if scum... vig uglyduck?

Edit: AP we really do not have a lot of options lol

[Mathdino]

is it relevant to your read on me in this game or to how much you currently like your alt?

[Mathdino]

AP there's a specific reason i'm not answering

i will answer very shortly

but i need to know why you want to know

specifically: is this going to help you read me?

[Mathdino]

so, dear newbies of 1841 and 1859

what have we learned about AP's alignment from this page

[Mathdino]

AP, i had an idea of who your main was and right now i'm about 50% sure

in mafia 50% sure is pretty decent

my scumread was not based off of meta but off of PoE

however you basically confirming that you are who i think

means that you're right that you're probably town by meta

although you're not exactly creature when it comes to readability and you know that lol

so what's your read on me?

Edit:
VOTE: ofrhz

[Mathdino]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... 4#p9845864

Hammer? Me? Why would I do a thing like that?

[Mathdino]

i mean yeah he's probably scum what do you want from me

[Mathdino]

hey AP didn't you have to look at the opening post in order to come up with that vote count

[Mathdino]

@NSG:

Did you plan the "VOTE: DRAYNTH" thing before you officially replaced in?

This late replace-in is really fucking with my northsi-dar tbh.

[Mathdino]

lol uglyduck who called me scum because i couldn't possibly be arrogant enough to catch scum-TW

none of my reads are 100% right now, reevaluate if things change a LOT (i.e. flips, terrible D2/D3)

at the very least i would consider these sheepable for the start of D2 barring a significant shakeup however

Town: ruru, pinturicchio
Probtown: AP, TW
Town-til-massclaim: Draynth

The rest (in descending order):
Oxy
Sunshine
NSG
skitter30
UglyDuck
Not_Mafia

lynch upward unless the associations strongly rule out otherwise

notable that AP can't really be scum with either skitter OR NSG so he's also probtown by "who the fuck even are his buddies" independently of my read on him

[Mathdino]

if there's a vigshot tonight, outsource the next shot to the town, draynth gets 2 votes

if there's no vigshot, evaluate pinturicchio (still probtown but be sure about this) and just keep lynchin lynchin lynchin (what do we do? we lynch)

while ruru and pintu are most likely to be town, their reads have been bad

so AP/TW are in charge while i'm gone, just make sure they're not literally scum together

if NSG is right about scioness-slot she also gets to be in charge

- figure out what i'd do and then do it

- don't forget to do VCA/gamestate analysis for D1, i already started the work

- but also don't rule out bussing/weird plays, everyone in this game knows i would eventually bust out the wagon data compiler

[Mathdino]

HA screw you duck

<3

can't believe we're sitting here with 3 PRs still alive but so it goes

so, show of hands
A. that kill was to remove oxy's lyncher and to keep me alive to defend oxy
B. that kill was the most obvious frame-up job on oxy ever and scum are on his wagon

[Mathdino]

oh yeah and lol at there being no vig

draynth if you're a cop you should out your result now

[Mathdino]

you know the last time i was an innocent child, i called the whole scumteam on D1 and scum (stupidly) kept me alive 2 more days for the WIFOM while i lynched all 3 of them

also open to suggestions as to what conversation could possibly have prompted killing a VT TW over me

[Mathdino]

okay guys hear me out

what if mathdino is alive on D2

because he's scum

am i doing this right

[Mathdino]

	Draynth-scum	Draynth-town
JK + Cop/Track	Draynth is gonna fakeclaim Tracker. Didn't kill me because JK.	Scum is idiotic.
Cop + Tracker	Draynth is setting himself up for a JK claim. Didn't kill me so he can claim he saved me.	Draynth is a tracker, scum is idiotic.
Vig + JK	Draynth is gonna fakeclaim Tracker. Didn't kill me because JK. Vig/JK interacted very badly.	Draynth IS the vig/JK and scum is idiotic.

[Mathdino]

wow it's almost like we should've gotten a specific claim from him yesterday since he was constantly unclear ruru

[Mathdino]

NSG how am i a tier below you wtf

[Mathdino]

skitter you're not understanding

i'm suggesting scum picked cop/tracker

so the only PR draynth can claim without getting cc'd is jailkeeper

so i was left alive so draynth can claim he's jailing me

Edit: because he said so

[Mathdino]

pintu not scum with draynth gg

[Mathdino]

not taking the vig is pretty damning for uglyduck, who basically just got vigged as town in a previous game

i feel like AP would also do that as scum?

draynth needs to specific claim though

Edit: yeah i don't see why that's super complicated

[Mathdino]

because i'm in the game

[Mathdino]

honestly vig wouldn't have been picked by any scumteam that felt seriously in danger of being vigged

this hardcore implicates uglyduck and draynth

[Mathdino]

i honestly just need them all to post more. my three main scum suspects are all low-posters.

this view of the gamestate is highly consistent with a scumteam that decides against giving town a vig

[Mathdino]

I used both shots last night

i agree with AP's plan btw, is good plan

[Mathdino]

uglyduck are you playing dumb or what
you were vigged in this game that just ended last week
how do you not remember this

and glad you could come around, ruru

[Mathdino]

draynth if you don't claim i'm strongarming 2 people into voting you so i can hammer you myself

[Mathdino]

if draynth is scum, scum is bussing him

too many townies offwagon

[Mathdino]

i feel pretty lukewarm about answering that

so i await your response

[Mathdino]

Also, I would implore you to not waste your time on this too much. As in the end, my thoughts on which PRs would or would not of been chosen do not actually matter in this game.

how the fuck does this not matter

scum has choices pre-game

[Mathdino]

uglyduck you do realise that we can gain information by figuring out what different people would choose as scum

[Mathdino]

has everyone just been completely checked out of this game or what

[Mathdino]

i have stronger townreads elsewhere

this game isn't exactly solved with a nice bow quite yet

[Mathdino]

it's pronounced like bow

[Mathdino]

i prefer star trek personally
the memes about the prequels are making fun of star wars prequels and their hilariously bad writing

so does anyone feel like lynching draynth through a claim?

[Mathdino]

so draynth's been posting in another game

[Mathdino]

I'm here to shoot PRs and mislynch townies

AND I'M ALL OUT OF PRS

[Mathdino]

why do people keep investigating NSG -_-

[Mathdino]

well whatever you were already locktown in my mind anyway
someone go reevalute ruru for me and make sure that read is good

AP, Draynth, Sunshine, Oxy, Uglyduck, Skitter and Not_Mafia.

draynth is literally not playing the game after softclaiming PR dude. i mean come on this is getting ridiculous

not_mafia is playing his scumgame as well

AP and sunshine are both clearly town imo
oxy/uglyduck/sunshine makes no sense
what is it about draynth's wagon that makes you think scum are actually trying to mislynch him

[Mathdino]

i'd have done oxy, sunshine, or AP in your position, but it's cool

NSG being town basically lends even more credibility to her draynth push so that might've backfired on you

the next goal that i've been putting off is finding scumpartners for draynth

[Mathdino]

yeah like geriatric white flag amirite

[Mathdino]

is it time for massclaim? it feels like time for massclaim.

someone cc draynth if you have the ability to do so.

NSG who are draynth's buddies

[Mathdino]

are you tracker or jailkeeper

draynth is gonna claim the other one anyway and scum already knows what you are

[Mathdino]

results?

[Mathdino]

do you have any breadcrumbs or softclaims?

[Mathdino]

almost like PR hunting as town is anti-town

okay draynth or skitter is scum. draynth will claim jailkeeper.

we should actually not lynch draynth today
why?

assuming draynth doesn't want to straight up scumclaim, if we leave him alive it guarantees another night of safety for both me and skitter. skitter's death mechanically confirms draynth as town, my death confirms he failed to jail me.

this gives skitter another night to track whoever she wants. there should be 0 discussion on who skitter should target tonight. tracker isn't about guessing scum, it's about guessing who would perform the nightkill.

let's lynch some scumbuddies

[Mathdino]

that's good enough for me
at least it's approximately equal enough to draynth's breadcrumb that it doesn't outright confirm you

okay so N_M playing his scum meta, if we assume draynth and N_M are scum together, let's find associations

[Mathdino]

people think not_mafia is unreadable

he is not unreadable

this is not his towngame

[Mathdino]

to be clear, claiming scum, posting a GIF, and posting a naked vote before going totally inactive

are all red flags for him

individually it's just his playstyle but all put together without any other signs that he's town is a red flag

[Mathdino]

i mean like i said, the last time i was an innocent child i pegged the entire scumteam on D1 and scum left me alive to try to dent my confidence

TW could've just been killed for activity. he's a fairly respected player. and if draynth was planning on keeping a JK claim, he would've had to leave me alive or risk getting speedlynched today.

i'm feelin like
Not_Mafia --> UglyDuck --> Sunshine --> Oxy
and then draynth when appropriate

also it occurs to me that if pintu is town, draynth is just going to perform the nightkill every night anyway since it's not like he can be MORE confscum to skitter than he already is

[Mathdino]

NKA on 3 person teams is bad

usually it only takes one person sending in the nightkill or doing the pre-game setup and 2 people just going along with it

we only need 1 scum that would perform the nightkill honestly

[Mathdino]

hey skitz why not track draynth if you were hunting for PRs?

[Mathdino]

Skum is 100% in a town hard read right now.

why and who

[Mathdino]

okay wait a second guys

suppose draynth is scum and doesn't want to scumclaim

if we leave draynth alive, scum can't kill me (because draynth is "jailing" me) and can't kill skitter (which would conf draynth as scum)

if we lynch draynth now, scum must kill skitter, and then kills from {pintu, NSG, Math} which is probably me

draynth alive:
- scum kills pintu/NSG

draynth dead:
- scum kills skitter/math

i kiiiiinda wanna leave draynth alive selfishly

[Mathdino]

plus if we lynch outside of the PRs, we can assign skitter to track draynth

if she gets a result of draynth jailing me, then scum is in {pintu, skitter}

if she doesn't, then it further confirms pintu as town

so it helps in that worst case scenario

we should be lynching partners today imo

[Mathdino]

who are the partners N_M

[Mathdino]

Okay, so he's not claiming VT.

Night actions:
Draynth jails me
skitter tracks Draynth

This accounts for both situations in which skitter and pintu are randomly scum, and ensures skitter and I live through the night.
This probably kills pintu and NSG, granted.

also i don't think UD really understands how this setup works

[Mathdino]

Any further attempts to lynch Draynth will be treated as an attempt to kill me/skitter.

[Mathdino]

i mean keep in mind sunshine is the same player that refused to unvote me after i hardclaimed PR

[Mathdino]

well now that 4 of us are confirmed, sure let's talk oxy

@sunshine: i mean i was hoping to get out of D1 not having to reveal so

[Mathdino]

like someone summarise why oxy makes sense as scum

he can't pocket me if i'm an innocent child lol

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Not_Mafia
Mathdino seal of approval

[Mathdino]

as cathartic as it would be to just lynch the scumclaimed draynth, it's still theoretically possible that it's pintu.

keeping draynth alive keeps me alive. i promise to lynch him in lylo if it gets to that.

but lynching draynth kills me, and i would rather stick around to find partners.

[Mathdino]

I reviewed Sci's associatives with her buddy last time she was scum.

I believe her ISO spews both Oxy and Sunshine as town. It probably spews pintu as town too. She tends to avoid giving reads on her scumbuddies unless prompted.

Going from her ISO, Draynth is basically confscum. Like there's pretty much little to no doubt.

THAT SAID his claim is keeping me alive and maybe he'll bus <3

Oddly, ruru is not spewed town by Sci-SO. Neither is AP I think. And UD looks pretty shit.

We get 2 mislynches. I think UglyDuck should be our first shot.

Currently thinking:
Draynth > pintu

UglyDuck > AP > ruru > Oxy > Sunshine

I don't intend on playing dictator though. At least not yet. I want comments.

[Mathdino]

- As many have mentioned there was the Draynth L-2 non claim thing - OK yeah, might be skum. but in context to this point... and again surprised at the lack of assertion on this concept - obv they would of thought about that. In your minds, let me put it this way, " if they are willing to kill off of the IC to create chaos, why would they not be willing to also choose to kill off of the next best chaotic option?"
The reason I am OK with a Draynth lynch is because skum both would lynch him if he was town and wouldn't lynch him if he was skum. However, to skum read him without considering the WIFOM alternative is (imo) super skummy. the fact his D2 wagon started so quickly is at least slightly suspicious as well.

All in all this all seems like a plan from the get go and the answer is going to end up being Track/Cop/IC or [tracker, cop], IC, Vig. Most likely the first as it would explain the mindset behind shooting off of the IC (combined with the one kill).

does this come from a partner with draynth though

goddamn :/

maybe lynching draynth is the right call after all? at least it rules out the ultra paranoia team of pintu/NSG

i don't wanna die

[Mathdino]

no stop it you're always getting lynched before pintu

you know that, you have no defence, you haven't been in thread at all and your reads have been awful given that you were literally townreading both pintu and scioness

find a partner for pintu

[Mathdino]

you've also voted only for town this entire game until literally now

you have 0 credibility

find a partner for pintu and vote them

i will never vote pintu over you today lol

[Mathdino]

i'm so not amused

VOTE: Draynth

[Mathdino]

i wasn't even addressing your NSG comment

i'm saying you should not be voting pintu today because that's never happening

[Mathdino]

what is the purpose of a vote if it doesn't lead to an actual lynch

are you planning on just being useless all day and voteparking him until you get lynched?

or are you actually going to do an ounce of analysis?

[Mathdino]

Go read scioness iso
She's not scum with oxy smh

[Mathdino]

towncase ruru for me

we need one more townie to get to forced victory

[Mathdino]

well as long as the gamethrow's on you and not me

we can go ahead and do

UglyDuck --> AP --> Draynth then, yeah?

the question today is really solely whether it's worth keeping me/pintu alive

NSG certainly gets killed tonight if draynth is alive, so that actually forces scum to kill in our lynchpool the following night

Edit: nice!

[Mathdino]

SCIONESS SAJJ WASN'T!!!

CHECKMATE, NORTHSCUMGAL!

[Mathdino]

Yeah ap was obviously A50 lmao
I immediately thought it might be him at the beginning for some reason
Then he made some comedy posts I thought he wouldn't make
But then his first serious posts were soooo A50 style moon logic xD

[Mathdino]

oh yeah obligatory

well done all

the vast majority of the town was obvtown

at the end of the day i guess that's all that was needed

[Mathdino]

Sheeping skitter on her AP theory - can we lynch in {UD, Draynth, possibly Scioness}

sorry Ofrhz

To be fair I didn’t think this was the actual scumteam at the time

And me acting scummy probably didn’t help your reads

people are lynched for being right far more often than they're NK'd for being right

well done