Open 721: Pick Your Poison (Game Over)

[ruru]

Vig isn't a good fake claim for scum
Fake claiming vig as PR seems suicidal
Fake claiming vig as VT is like massively antitown compared to fake claiming generic PR

[ruru]

And claiming vig as vig seems awfully pointless

[ruru]

So, I guess he's a coinflip?

His actions have been scummy and he's not really helping town, which is the main reason I've wanted to lynch him regardless

I think "his vig claim is likely fake" is a kind of poor reason for voting him now though, even if it could be true

[ruru]

Like what happens when scum fakeclaim vig on d1 is they either get shot n1 or lynched d2 like a large portion of the time right

[ruru]

My exact reaction both duckling and skitter. ruru stop the speculation, leave out the hesitation, bring us scum for our nation and we'll give you a standing ovation!

We lost

[ruru]

VOTE: AP

[ruru]

[ruru]

By my own admission, I'm not that serious, but I do think Ugly is scum and the argument about "scumpartners would coach him on their PT" is bullcrap, and the first fella who brought that argument was Sunshine, so from my point of view seemed like a soft defense on a slot that was not providing anything thoughtful

I think it was skitter

[ruru]

[ruru]

i think NSG thinks that you play scum like jaydragonking

What does this mean?

[ruru]

This game's a disaster

[ruru]

How confident are you on AP being town right now

[ruru]

??????????????

[ruru]

It's 2126 that I don't understand at all

[ruru]

How about lynch ofrhz vig AP

[ruru]

Maybe I don't understand the depths of NM's antitown behavior having not seen it before? But I kinda feel like there are too many policyable players to policy NM when I'm townreading his slot in general

[ruru]

By disassociation with ofrhz, who I think is scummy

And her posting didn't feel scum-motivated to me

[ruru]

524

This is the post that makes SS+ofrhz seem unlikely to me

[ruru]

so, dear newbies of 1841 and 1859

what have we learned about AP's alignment from this page

Probably town, definitely not reading the thread

VOTE: ofrhz

[ruru]

also open to suggestions as to what conversation could possibly have prompted killing a VT TW over me

If we're having this particular conversation, I feel like the consensus scummiest players should probably post their theories first?

[ruru]

But he's VT by physicist induction

[ruru]

Wait a minute you're not a consensus scummiest player

[ruru]

Like the issue with this topic is it either gives a bunch of red herrings because everyone is lying, or it's like 80% a massclaim

I'd rather use massclaim protocol than leak a ton of info while scum afk

[ruru]

I guess I feel like the discussion on why there was 1 kill on tw last night could likely leak so much information as to amount to kind of massclaiming, and in massclaim the scummiest players are supposed to go first

Am I being excessive?

[ruru]

N_M: "NM ia readable" "So if we can avoid lynching NM after d1 I'd rather do it"
SS: generic lynchpool entry

AP: "conftown Math seems to accept within reason AP is likely town"

UD: "Fmpov Ugly is one tier down from townblock, strong read there"

Oxy: "I am starting to feel that Oxy is getting too towny to be scum!Oxy fwiw"

NSG: nullscum
Mohab: "Mohab was a nullshit read but this post is easily the worst post in the game."

Sunshine: "Probtown: sunsh"

[ruru]

I can't tell whether he was scumreading skitter or just flaming her

[ruru]

Nvm he was strongly townreading her I'm crazy

[ruru]

The N_M entry is interesting I suppose

I'm guessing not many players claim that ability?

[ruru]

People are more often lynched for being right than killed for being right

Thinking about this,

I feel like ofrhz was himself up until 742, which was admittedly a weird reaction

Later came 1322 and an apparent lack of interest in really clearly explaining his theories. I don't particularly suspect scum manipulation after this point, because he actually looked scummy. So (sorry ofrhz) I don't really care as much who he was scumreading at that point. Regardless of the final wagon, he was already a designated mislynch/vig long before then.

So, what about scum manipulation before that point?

Scummy:
Mohab500, UglyDuck, AP

UD's day 1 voting was actually really questionable now that I look at it, he just parked on ofrhz all day starting with 512 until 1525

1605 and 1606 were his only other votes

I still don't feel like his posts are scum indicative but maybe the voting could be?

[ruru]

If there’s a jk, it would probably mean there were no scum on math’s wagon as to avoid him outing himself.

Is this a townslip

[ruru]

OK. so here's what I think:

- If there's a Cop who

had already used up his shot

, please claim
- If there's a Vig who

had already used up one shot

, please claim

Nobody else should claim yet, and neither of the two should claim in they have not acted last night.

I did not use a cop or vig shot last night

[ruru]

AP, are you personally hardclaiming no cop or vig shot?

[ruru]

Okay, sorry, I see why your order is better

Nobody follow my example please

[ruru]

Also I'm strongly townreading AP as of now

[ruru]

VOTE: UglyDuck

[ruru]

Wait, you were even in that game with him?

What's happening

[ruru]

I support the idea of Draynth claiming

I actually hadn't fully thought about the implications for his slot of my previous theory being false until now

I think he has enough votes on him now though

[ruru]

Hmm what are the odds of SS replacing out because her scumteam wasn't trying/communicating

[ruru]

I had a tinfoil hat theory that I didn't post about but I don't think it makes sense anymore and it's probably not super productive to discuss

[ruru]

[ruru]

I'm ready for d3

Draynth, if you're actually a PR, the best thing you can do right now is just post your night action before someone decides to lol-1 vote you

I think you're going to get scumread no matter what it was at this point

The reason I am OK with a Draynth lynch is because skum both would lynch him if he was town and wouldn't lynch him if he was skum. However, to skum read him without considering the WIFOM alternative is (imo) super skummy. the fact his D2 wagon started so quickly is at least slightly suspicious as well.

Also I'm scumreading this

[ruru]

Oh I know where this is headed

[ruru]

I guess I don't believe you're oblivious to Draynth being a good bus candidate, also the wifom lines seem pretty -ev for scum in this case

[ruru]

I think scum's priorities in this setup are to shoot PRs and to set up believable fakeclaims/mislynches due to the lack of counterclaims. Doing those things is extremely +ev whether or not town chooses to do X or Y in wifom situations

I feel like it's nowhere near the same thing as actual wifom situations that barely mean anything like shooting a player who had

lucky

good d1 reads

Like, suppose Draynth was cop and shared his result and then we lynched him because of wifom. Congrats?

[ruru]

I came up with some strategy to reduce scum's claim space based on IC claiming D1.

I'm here to out the IC

[ruru]

Like, suppose Draynth was cop and shared his result and then we lynched him because of wifom. Congrats?

He already said he’s not.

If Draynth is town then scum didn't know that n1

[ruru]

I really want to see Draynth's result...

[ruru]

Wait so what do you want to do pin

[ruru]

Along that line of thinking I guess it's relevant that someone else will have to perform the nk if we lynch Draynth today

[ruru]

But yeah I guess there's a high chance they just nk you so we may as well not play around your n2 action

[ruru]

Do we think that scum!UD gave an accurate analysis of why we should scum read him in this post?

Mmmmm not really

I don't feel like "haha! that thing you thought on d1 would make you scum if it's true" is indicative of someone being scum

I don't personally feel like his d1 was scummy aside from a) typically not posting unless he was getting voted (probably a weak indicator) and b) pushing ofrhz in general (before ofrhz started gamethrowing)

My main reasons for sring him right now are the early ofrhz push (which I also kinda suspect you for) and it feels like he's hedging on Draynth / randomly throwing shade around

[ruru]

Interesting

[ruru]

I guess I find the post somewhat towny but I don't think ofrhz flipping green makes it more towny

[ruru]

I am saying the fact there has been no counter claim to any PR actually claimed to this point is suspicious.

[ruru]

I think we should lynch a VT claim today because reasons

[ruru]

The list above is the order I would like to lynch, but in reality I have to decide who I want to lynch the most between UD and Oxy. Was Oxy pushing Draynth yesterday? Can't remember. Do you know who wasn't pushing Draynth? Me sorry for over complicating things about him

Oxy was pushing Draynth yesterday yeah

Perhaps more interestingly Draynth had that weird vote on Oxy d1. I didn't find examples in Draynth's meta of him bussing for no reason

Also, 2566 could have been coordinated with NM, but I think it's somewhat less likely than Oxy just being town

[ruru]

VOTE: UglyDuck

[ruru]

I didn't find examples in Draynth's meta of him bussing for no reason

For example he didn't even scumread this and it became that

[ruru]

I guess the selection of scum games I read was chosen by Draynth. There's a possibility he's actively defying his meta of those particular games

Which would be awfully tryhard for someone who isn't trying as either alignment

[ruru]

If we mislynch today, we hit draynth tomorrow without any discussion.

I disagree, also because reasons

[ruru]

BTW, it's not for a reason ya'll know.

I'm pretty sure I have (my first!) solid meta tell on ruru

Actually how does this work

I feel like I'm super different in this game and (especially without knowing my alignment 100%) what makes one of those differences a tell?

[ruru]

Okay well Draynth is definitely scum because if he were town he would have jailed skitter

Regardless of nk, if skitter claimed roleblocked start of d3, he's conftown
If there was an nk, pin would also be confscum (unless scum!skitter somehow predicted that she should claim roleblocked out of the blue to mislynch pin)

I wanted to keep him alive so that scum continue to play suboptimally and shoot non-conftown

I completely agree that had we lynched a VT today, we should have lynched Draynth tomorrow btw, I just didn't want scum to think I thought that

[ruru]

Oh my god

Hardclaiming insane cop

[ruru]

VOTE: UglyDuck

[ruru]

If I'm looking at that post from that perspective, I feel like AP is a bit implicated too

[ruru]

Does anyone feel like looking up more Draynth scumgames

[ruru]

^ This kinda

Like I don't think scum!Oxy is completely impossible but signs point to the opposite

If Draynth's partner is Oxy and he's going to be afk/low effort all game it makes no sense to bus Oxy d1, Draynth should be the one getting bussed

Draynth started sring Oxy when there was a wagon on Oxy, so it's not like Draynth was just trying to distance himself from Oxy given that Draynth expected to flip red soon

[ruru]

And Oxy's wagon outcome was pretty unpredictable at the time that Draynth changed his reads. It's not like Oxy was guaranteed to flip either

[ruru]

My reasons for sring Oxy, if he is town, amount to a weak d1 tunnel and too many smileys

Those are not good reasons compared to Draynth's scum motivations

[ruru]

I'm not sure if you would be my preferred lynch tomorrow, I was only commenting on pin's logic

It would be between you and Sunshine and I kinda think you've towntold more (2605 is whatever, Draynth was getting lynched one day or another anyway, but my biggest reason for townreading you right now is that I don't think scum hints at being vig on d1 and then proposes specifically that vig/cop come out in a way that's pretty +EV for town on d2. Also I feel like the JK claim being wasted on Draynth points to less experienced scum?)

Can you explain to me why Oxy is scum in this game, aside from having an opinion on lynch order?

[ruru]

Oh, I misread, it's his post after that you don't like

I still don't see why it makes him scum

[ruru]

brassherald: Thanks for hosting!

[ruru]

I can't wait to find out why scum shot tw

[ruru]

ofrhz was the main reason I kept pushing UD, so his death wasn't in vain

[ruru]

Also I'm kinda surprised scum didn't shoot skitter n1

I thought the only reason for her read on AP to change so dramatically is if she's a PR or she's scum

[ruru]

Yeah, I think I read your mind on why you townread AP and it's part of why I stopped pushing him, but I thought he was most likely to be scum especially after he softed vig

[ruru]

When tw died at first I thought scum were trying to setup both JK+vig claims to be possible because AP was scumreading tw and softed vig

I wasn't capable of seeing anything else on d2 until AP claimed not vig

I didn't want to post about it because my reasons for thinking it was likely would out me as VT

[ruru]

Because I saw no other reason for shooting tw (over, say, skitter / town!Draynth)

[ruru]

Hmm

Do you still think the vig thing is mechanically incorrect (even given Tracker exists 100%)?

I feel like Tracker is so unlikely to get a guilty that the vig vote is probably more useful, and confirming PRs is super useful in this setup anyway, which is the most likely useful track result

[ruru]

I meant is no vig vote + track top scumread better than vig vote + track top pr read? Considering there's 1 nk and cop/vig/jk as possible pr actions

[ruru]

I feel like I would track a pr read n1 even in a setup without vig. Like tracking a scumread is useless in 2/3 cases even if your read is accurate right

[ruru]

Especially in this setup, where confirming a pr is hard, so having the knowledge that a later pr claim is true is super valuable

[ruru]

Especially in this setup, where confirming a pr is hard, so having the knowledge that a later pr claim is true is super valuable

In retrospect this is very true and def what I should have done.

Okay, glad I'm not crazy

I still super townread your explanation on d2 though, I thought it was 99% Draynth or pin at that point

[ruru]

multiball :<

I feel this way too

Any counterwagons?

[ruru]

ofrhz was the main reason I kept pushing UD, so his death wasn't in vain

Ayyy I was more than vindicated

It’d be fun to play with you all again. Maybe when another open game opens up

You could try the UglyDuck L+1 vote on purgatory in case someone /outs