Mini Normal 2012: Tropical Mafia [Endgame]

[Shoshin]

I'm not lynching BBT before I lynch Invisibility/Mumble.

[Shoshin]

JJD, you agree that Invisibility is 100% mafia if BBT's mafia, right? Where we disagree is about Mumble's connection?

[Shoshin]

Did U miss 884? BBT screwed his claim up. He's obviously not handing fruit to his townreads.

I don't understand? You're saying the only townie way to use the role is to target scumreads?

[Shoshin]

There is no benefit to killing a slot that you can neutralize while killing elsewhere. None. Maybe on your homesite they may do that, but a quality player here will not. It is standard advice that was given in the Newbie queue when Matrix 6 was the setup.

Yeah, the advice you received in the context of Matrix 6 doesn't inherently apply to every game, it applies to that setup. The number of strategies that scum employ doesn't end there, that's just the beginning of what scum do. It's absurd that you're taking advice given to newbies in Matrix 6 and applying it here, in a different setup, with players who aren't new to the game, lol...

[Shoshin]

Did U miss 884? BBT screwed his claim up. He's obviously not handing fruit to his townreads.

I don't understand? You're saying the only townie way to use the role is to target scumreads?

You read what he said the role does right?

Yeah, I did. I think I get what you're saying but can you spell this out more clearly please.

[Shoshin]

You know, it's possible to disagree with someone about how to play mafia without calling the other person dumb...

[Shoshin]

As for "site meta," that shit's constantly changing... people try out different strategies to push the game further... anything that's "established meta" is always subject to challenge in the next game...

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Invisibility

We can worry about whether BBT is scum tomorrow. I'm curious to see what happens with his role tonight.

[Shoshin]

What JJD's saying makes sense, yes. It's also something about which reasonable people could disagree, so it's not as alignment indicative as he thinks.

[Shoshin]

All that stuff you're pointing out isn't that scummy, JJD. I'd expect scum to have been a lot more consistent about what they did around the claim.

[Shoshin]

I'm not voting BBT today because there's no plausible world in which BBT is scum and Invisibility's not.

[Shoshin]

All that stuff you're pointing out isn't that scummy.

Spoiler:

You're saying it doesn't make sense. But just because things don't make sense to you doesn't mean they're scummy.

[Shoshin]

What BBT's experiencing happens all the time to townies, especially after they just pushed a mislynch - you're pushing someone who you think is scum (Invisibility) while having this niggling feeling that someone else who you've been town reading and who supports the lynch is maybe scum (me), so as the lynch approaches you start doubting it and looking for signs of town and developing paranoid suspicions on supporters, and then what you thought was a slam dunk lynch feels like a mislynch, and then you realize that you have a guilty on a lynch supporter (me), so you change course entirely, until you realize that maybe you had it right at first and that your irrational paranoia and doubts got the better of you, and so you go back to your original plan of lynching scum. That's what's happening to BBT if he's town, and it's not only a normal course of events, but a likely one because scum don't do the things BBT is doing, they don't randomly claim a guilty on someone they've been town reading all game when someone else is at L-1, and then call the person they've been scum reading all game town, and then go back-and-forth a couple times as they try to figure things out. The most likely scenario is that BBT is town, he's genuinely trying to figure shit out, and we as a town collective are getting fucked by the scum's night actions.

[Shoshin]

I'm not voting BBT today because there's no plausible world in which BBT is scum and Invisibility's not.

hi are you saying that if i'm town BBT is scum or just saying that i am guaranteed to be scum and BBT is guaranteed to be town/

I'm saying you're guaranteed scum if BBT is scum.

[Shoshin]

Shoshin, are u really banking on the fact that town has a jailkeeper, a tracker, a fruitgiver AND that the jailkeeper targeted BBT last night?

I think scum have a roleblocker or town has a jailkeeper.

[Shoshin]

There's no plausible world where BBT is scum and Invisibility isn't - so why are people pushing BBT instead of Invisibility?

[Shoshin]

Judge, take a look at Invisibility.

[Shoshin]

Jar, why vote BBT over Invisibility?

[Shoshin]

Why would BB fake claim something and his partner is the one to out him??

tbf Shoshin is hard defending BBT, and is pushing hard that scum blocked him. I could see a world where both are scum.

As usual, you're not actually answering Judge's question. Why the fuck would me and BBT fake this gambit together?

[Shoshin]

Judge, take a look at Invisibility.

The think is if BBT flips "Loyal Fruit Vendor" you're almost conf!Scum. If he flips Scum you're almost conf!Town (that's me before I see what JarJar has to say). Invis' flip doesn't confirm any of you one way or the other (and especially so if invis flips green)

It's not that simple. If Invisibility is town, why would scumBBT fake this gambit when Invis was at L-1 and I would have gladly hammered? There's no plausible world where BBT is scum and Invis isn't - so it's best to lynch Invis first, while giving BBT another chance to prove his role (or the existence of a role blocker).

[Shoshin]

Invis, are you seriously town? What the fuck?

[Shoshin]

Well, if Invis is town, at least it clears BBT.

[Shoshin]

Town's going to lose this given the current state of though here. I doubt there's anything I could say to convince you guys at this point that I'm town, and I doubt anyone cares what I have to say about the game either, but if you do then I'll reread and try to figure out who the scum are.

[Shoshin]

I'll reiterate yet again that BBT's role doesn't provide anything close to "hard evidence," it's unreliable and shouldn't be used except as corroboration for behavioral reads.

[Shoshin]

VOTE: Havo

Havo's probably scum based on his response to BBT's claim as well as his overall lack of engagement with the game.

[Shoshin]

JJD's my only town read at this point, based on the absurdity of his theories. I don't think scum would have been pushing a lynch on BBT.

[Shoshin]

i like havo

This is a strange read, especially at this point in the game. Can you explain?

[Shoshin]

I mean Jar, actually.

[Shoshin]

Judge, is there some reason I shouldn't be town reading you? lol...

[Shoshin]

Have you read the game in light of the flips? Who do you think is scum/town and why?

[Shoshin]

Who do you think is scum/town and why?

[Shoshin]

Why Havo?

Fuck it.

I'm claiming Town Loyal Fruit Vendor and I visited Shoshin last night. She should have received fruit from me but she is saying she has no idea of anything. My action only fails if I target scum. Or if I was role-blocked which is highly unlikely.

PEdit - It wasn't the claim Tex - it was the posting in general.

Where's the Scum motivation for this?

BBT is claiming a provable role. What are the odds he got roleblocked? If he's scum, then he plans on claiming Roleblocked from here on out?
Why make this play as scum this early when Invisibility is at L-1?

My read on BBT has been towny and hasn't really changed. I believe the claim. I don't see how or why he would do this as scum.

So that means.............

Scum blocked him

or he was

possibly

Jail kept by another towny or Shoshin is

actually

scum.

What other scenarios are there for Town BBT to get no result?

His initial reaction to this is to say that BBT is town, his claim is town, and that means there's three possibilities - that scum blocked him, that he was jailkept, or that I'm scum. But the first one he lists is that scum blocked him, and he qualifies both other options with "possibly" and "actually," suggesting he doesn't believe these possibilities as much as the first one. There's the scent of an informed perspective underlying this response.

Okay, prior to BBT's claim.

The game state was really annoying with the arguing going on. I'm glad something has disrupted that tbh.

I'm leaning town on Mumble and my Shoshin read went from Almost Hard town on Day 1 to not so much throughout the day 2.

I still think Invisibility could easily flip scum, and most likely I would have hammered if that was still a possibility prior to BBT's claim.

Then he opportunistically changes his reads precisely in the way scum would if they knew BBT and I were both town. So while earlier he was townreading me and willing to lynch Mumble, now he's town on Mumble and open to lynching me, as he knows I'm the obvious lynch when BBT flips town. But he still wants Invisibility lynched. This will be more apparent to you guys when I flip town.

All I know is I didn't receive a fruit and I'm town as fuck.

No, you're not.

BBT getting roleblocked makes a lot of sense with an Invisibility/Mumble team.

No, it doesn't. Why would scum with a RB roleblock an unknown slot versus a known PR? Makes no sense.

More likely, you are caught scum scrambling.

Is it possible BBT was Jailkept?

Really unnatural question to ask Mumble here. As if he knows I'm flipping town.

I'd lynch Havo on this basis alone, but if you look back at his posts throughout the game, they're pretty bad throughout.

[Shoshin]

I'm surprised that BBT is dead, confirming his role. I realize it's wifom, but if Shoshin is scum, I'd have thought they'd leave BBT alive.

People should really take this into account, as well as the fact that BBT was so sure I was town that he didn't even trust his own role...

[Shoshin]

BBT was a bit sus of Shoshin/Mumble, and it partially explains the kill. I mean, if SCUM blocked him on N1 they sure could have done it again on N2, so why shoot him?

They probably killed him to frame me.

[Shoshin]

Yeah, this is a hard game to figure out. It's very unlikely any of my scum reads are going to get lynched, so I dunno. Not sure what I can do at this point to help the town out.

[Shoshin]

Why do you have Mumble/Fitz as town?

[Shoshin]

bacy, what did you like about Havo's posts? What do you like about his thought process? How is any of it indicative of town?

[Shoshin]

UNVOTE: Havo

I don't fucking know what's going on in this game. Why would BBT give a fruit to bacy?

[Shoshin]

I'm worried that bacy/Havo are scum.

[Shoshin]

Can anybody see a texcat/Havo/Gustavo as the precise scum team?

Plausible.

[Shoshin]

I'm thinking scum might have both role blocked and killed BBT precisely so that they could safely claim they received fruit.

[Shoshin]

It's clear at this point that scum blocked BBT on N1, so that's something to think about.

[Shoshin]

Like even if you were actually town. It wouldn’t be clear to anyone but you that is what happened. Nobody else would know that 100%

I understand that it's unclear to anyone but me, but there's nothing I can do about that... so what's your point?why are you trying to get me to stop analyzing the game?

[Shoshin]

Wtf? I'm providing you with the best analysis I can, based on the information available to me.

[Shoshin]

Something is off about Gus.

[Shoshin]

The degree of confidence that some players have that I'm scum doesn't make any sense. It's especially odd that they can't even deal with me analyzing the game in the only way that I can, from the perspective of a townie... Like, how is analyzing the game as a townie equate to "tricking" anyone?

[Shoshin]

I've already accepted the fact that I'm getting lynched... my goal is to actually figure out who the scum are.

[Shoshin]

You can ignore my posts, then. But I'm gonna keep trying to figure this out.

[Shoshin]

Mod has indeed been great.

Jar, asume for a moment I'm town. Who do you think is scum?

[Shoshin]

The game is likely unwinnable if ur town so I'm not gonna spend time discussing it.

So when I flip town, what? You're going to concede defeat to the scum? The state of thought here is so fucked. Like, I don't get how a bunch of townies who keep mislynching and voting townies decide that they need to be even more closed-minded than they've been and refuse to consider any possibility that they're lynching town again... and even worse, shut down any attempts by the person getting lynched to try figuring out the game... it's like what the fuck?

[Shoshin]

So Judge is the only player considering the possibility that I'm town? Everyone else is 100% set on me flipping scum and won't even discuss anything with me? If that's the case, there's nothing to do here. You guys need to lynch me so that you can move the fuck on and start reevaluating this game with a very different mindset than the one you've been using so far.

Jar, you need to stop wasting your energy on trying to figure anything out under the assumption I'm scum, because it's just wasted effort.

[Shoshin]

I'm vanilla. Claim won't make a difference.

[Shoshin]

Well, I'm town. So... you might want to start reevaluating.

[Shoshin]

Yeah, that's what I was saying about bacy... But it's impossible to say either way. Mumble/Gustavo aren't clear either. And you need to look at Havo and HF. This game is going to be rough to figure out. If someone wanted to work with me while I was alive maybe we could have gotten somewhere, but at this point not much to say.

[Shoshin]

Why would scum let BBT give fruit to someone else?

[Shoshin]

Your townread on Havo also makes no sense. I can't figure it out.

[Shoshin]

HF's total lack of engagement with the game is also pretty concerning at this point.

[Shoshin]

I also think Mumble/Gustavo had way too much certainty that I'd flip scum - could just be the way they speak but it really doesn't make sense - like, they didn't even want me posting anything because my posts were made from the only perspective I know, a town one. It's like every time I posted, it was so obvious to them that I was town that they needed to shut me up, lest I didn't get mislynched...

[Shoshin]

There's reasons to suspect most the players in the game, so I dunno, hopefully the townies left figure this out and don't get led astray by the scum. Scum are definitely going to be working together to lead a mislynch tomorrow.

[Shoshin]

Like, look closely at the sequence of posts on page 44 - why would townies try to shut me up? why would my town-based analysis bother them so much?

[Shoshin]

And then there's HF, just allowing town to mislynch without saying much along the way... game state is pretty fucked with so many potential reasons to suspect players and very few reasosn to town read anyone.

[Shoshin]

I also think Mumble/Gustavo had way too much certainty that I'd flip scum - could just be the way they speak but it really doesn't make sense - like, they didn't even want me posting anything because my posts were made from the only perspective I know, a town one. It's like every time I posted, it was so obvious to them that I was town that they needed to shut me up, lest I didn't get mislynched...

That’s a misrep. I wasn’t trying to shut you up. You said it was clear what had happened but it wasn’t. Nobody stopped you from analyzing the game. There is the ability to ignore people.

Im not misrepping anything and that's going to be obvious when I flip town - my intent is 100% in good faith to interpret what I can from your posts. This is what I'm seeing:

It's clear at this point that scum blocked BBT on N1, so that's something to think about.

Or the more realistic explanation is that you are actually scum and that’s why you didn’t get the fruit.

Telling me that I'm scum isn't doing anything. Like, what's the point of making this post?

Trying to trick people into thinking you are cleared isn’t analyzing the game.

I state clearly that I'm trying to analyze the game from the only perspective I know. You respond by basically telling me that I shouldn't be doing what I'm doing - analyzying - because any attempts to analyze imply I'm town... How is this not trying to shut me up?

Wtf? I'm providing you with the best analysis I can, based on the information available to me.

Alternative facts is what you are coming up with. The truth is you are scum trying to stall your lynch.

Again, you are clearly bothered by the fact that I'm analyzing the game from a town perspective. What's the point of this post if not to discredit me and get me to stop trying to analyze anything?

You can ignore my posts, then. But I'm gonna keep trying to figure this out.

Fine but you can at least cut out the omgus nonsense.

OMGUS? What OMGUS? The interaction started with me simply pointing out that scum have a roleblocker and you telling me that I'm "tricking" people, lol...

Explain what your puspose was in these posts.

[Shoshin]

Mumble obviously didn't like it when I started analyzing things:

It looks like everyone has shown up, and we're not going to get any forward progress until we have a scumflip...can we just lynch Shoshin now?

No...you're are trying to muddy up the gamestate. That's why I want your lynch sooner rather than later.

I'm muddying up the game state by posting from a town perspective? He wants me to stop posting, clearly.

[Shoshin]

I mean, maybe these guys are just incredibly pro-scum townies. It's possible. Who knows?

[Shoshin]

I hope I get to find out who the scum are now that I'm lynched.

[Shoshin]

Meh, congrats scum. I'm not surprised at all by who you are.

I think if Mumble hadn't played so bad town might have won, he pretty much lost us the game with his shit play on D2 and D3 and D4. It sucks that we mislynched Invis on D1 and D2 (sorry Invis) but that didn't mean we were doomed. By D3, I had strong townreads on Jar and relatively solid townreads on tex, fitz, and bacy (and would have felt better about this if I knew Mumble's claim) - I strongly suspected Havo, and had suspicions of Mumble (who probably could have turned my read around with his claim), Gustavo, and Judge. I don't think we were that far from figuring this out if people wouldn't have mislynched me - and that mislynch could have easily been avoided if Mumble hadn't been so dumb.

This game went from winnable to lost based entirely on Mumble's play. I hope he learns from his mistakes.

[Shoshin]

I don't think lurking or lying are indicative of alignment - too many town lurk for it to have much meaning, and lying just means someone had something to hide, the question to ask is what they're hiding.

[Shoshin]

Why tho?

Definitely

not

"for the fun if it". I lie when I deem needed. For example, I once faked PGO as the Town Vig, because I obviously didn't want to get shot early by scum.

That’s different. I’m talking about poeple who fake claim roles when they are Vt.

And yeah, that's pretty dumb. Don't think I've seen that before.

[Shoshin]

Yeah, I'm noticing that as well. Very difficult to get people to work as a team here.