In post 203, Thespio wrote:I feel its appropriate to let you know he informed me that he was in a car accident and will be in the hospital for a while. Send him some love if you have time.
That's awful. I wish him a speedy recovery.
Okay. I reread the game and while it didn't quite give me the clarity I was hoping for I'm still gonna consolidate all my thoughts here and hope it sparks me or someone else looking at it. I imagine this will be quite the long post, and normally I'd apologize for that, but it looks like we're stuck for content anyway, so hopefully this encourages discussion of some sort or at the very least some posts from our in active slots.
READS:
Mewtaph -
Town
Gamma Emerald -
Town
mbaki -
Town
LolWagons -
Town
Podoboq -
Mixed
Doughboy -
Null
bristep123 -
Scum
Xtoxm -
Scum
As you can see, I town read basically all the active players right now, which is problematic. I'm not usually one to default to the "lurkers are always scum" thought process, and these are by no means definitive reads, but the others have town pinged me enough I kinda
have
to think one of the lurking players is at least one part of the scum team. I'll start with my town reads.
Mewtaph
Looking back over the game, the case on Mewtaph is pretty flimsy. One aspect of it is the phrasing of his initial questioning of LolWagons. Podoboq points out in
post #86 that "How someone should go about achieving their town win condition" (the way Mewtaph initially phrased the question) is not as natural as "How town should go about achieving their win condition." By itself this is a good point. However, only two posts after Mewtaph initially phrased the question, he restated it in
post #17 as "I want to hear how they think town should approach achieving their win condition..." Which completely matches the supposed "more natural" way of phrasing the question. This makes me think Mewtaph wasn't really paying special attention to how he was phrasing the question or else he would have stayed consistent with it.
There's also a lot of talk about how Mewtaph's posts are robotic and inorganic in general. His style of posting has been consistent, and glancing through his meta, I rather think this is just his style and not alignment indicative. His behavior and reactions to extreme pressure early on don't strike me as scum behavior either. His posts
#37,
#41,
#94, and
#171 all town ping me to varying degrees as specific examples. Respectively, I don't think scum!Mewtaph backs down from LolWagons as easily as he does, I don't think scum generally think in terms of what the "objectively best" place is to put their vote and rather what their scum reads should be, and finally I think scum!Mewtaph would be happy the Gamma push pops up to allow his wagon to fly under the radar for a bit, but he specifically prods bristep123 to comment on it.
Gamma Emerald
As for Gamma Emerald, I've already largely explained this in previous posts, but I'll reiterate.
Post #197 is extremely town. Scum generally just operates more carefully when it comes to their reads and how they got them, IMO. Furthermore, there's just no reason for Gamma to make the bad posts he did as scum—which is why I now peg it as a bad town entrance. Since the scum have daychat (I assume that's what "the mafia private thread will be predominantly open" means), it'd logically follow that Gamma could've made his attack on mbaki as some sort of distraction for the wagons on Podoboq or Mewtaph. As I've explained before, none of these scenarios make sense. There's no real reason to make such a blatantly bad move as scum and sit on it, unless it was just a huge blunder. But, I find town much more probably. Thus, this is probably the read I'm most confident about in the game.
Mbaki and LolWagons
I'll admit I don't have as specific reasons for mbaki and LolWagons being town, as it's mostly just gut feelings coming from their posts. I will say that of the two feuds with Mewtaph, I like LolWagons' side more than I like podoboq's push. His reactions to Mewtaph in posts
#134 and
#141 specifically also read town to me. As for mbaki, I just really like the way he uses his votes so far and how/where he pushes reads as town. I think scum would've gotten more involved in either the Mewtaph or Podoboq wagons and tried to push one of those, whereas mbaki admits he's not sure what his feelings are on either right now.
Podoboq
I have lots of conflicting feelings on Podoboq, moreso than any player. This was the slot I was most hoping rereading would clarify for me, but it just muddied the waters more. I
still
dislike the unvote of the Mewtaph wagon on principle, as I think town would behave more like Gamma Emerald did in
post #109 and not really care if they're putting what they thought to be a pretty icky slot to L-1. I also dislike Podoboq's case on Mewtaph in general. Posts
#58,
#62,
#64 scum ping me quite a bit. Mostly because, the town read on bristep has no basis—or at least not one I understand—and scum generally town reads players for dumber reasons because they already know who is town. Then, his unvote I've gone into quite enough. The psychology of realizing he left Mewtaph at L-1 really rubs me wrong as I've said many times before, but enough on that. And then, the justification for his town read on bristep doesn't track, mostly because I don't think I was "spinning out" there? It doesn't really make sense, though doesn't ping me as hard as the weird unvote.
Despite all that, some of his posts, especially recent posts read town, enough that I'm second guessing some of the bad vibes I was getting earlier.
In post 187, podoboq wrote: In post 184, mbaki wrote:It just seems odd that you'd choose to expand on bristep123 but pass Gamma Emerald as bad town and move on.
I moved on from him now because I had enough to feel satisfied at this point in the game. bristep happens to be voting one of my scumreads, one I've been rethinking. Then bristep comes in to provide a shred of analysis on something irrelevant to me, when I'm interested in an opinion on the person they're not only scumreading but voting. I'm not getting that, and it's frustrating.
I really like this post in particular. The reasoning for questioning bristep comes from a very town place, a place that wants to get accurate reads on people. Rethinking the Mewtaph scum read also gets townie points in my book.
In post 169, podoboq wrote:I was going to paraphrase how I feel about Gamma, which is that it seems like he lazily came to a bad conclusion and is just sticking to it despite the fact that it's pretty clearly a bad conclusion, but you wrote it better than I could.
I also can't fail to mention that podoboq got to the conclusion I eventually got to on Gamma Emerald much faster, one that I think is fully accurate. I think Gamma is town, and I think scum!podoboq pushes Gamma more than he does for making such a stupid move.
I'm not really sold either way on this slot. I echo mbaki's thoughts that only one of Mewtaph or podoboq is scum if at all, and while I personally think podoboq is the more likely of the two to flip red, I'm not confident enough to push for that lynch yet given the state of the game.
Doughboy
There's nothing much to say about the Doughboy slot. He has 7 posts and none of them are really related to any of the content in game.
Bristep and Xtoxm
Bristep and Xtoxm are actually basically as inactive as Doughboy! Though, they do have marginally more posts related to the actual game. As for Bristep, I don't like posts
#24 nor
#185. However, I admit this could be just a play style difference as I tend to be very transparent with my thoughts and people being secretive without much reason tends to read scummy for me.
Xtoxm is pretty much the worst. He has 7 posts,
THREE
of which are related to the game. In two of them he says some things are vaguely town without much justification, and the other one is jumping on the easy Gamma bandwagon... without voting?
VOTE: Xtoxm
The bristep and Xtoxm slots are almost impossible to read—which if not scum, is at the very least anti-town—and at this point in the game, we
need
more content from them. Still keeping an eye on podoboq, don't know exactly what to think about him yet. I keep going through his ISO and coming away with a different opinion each time. Xtoxm is the scummier of the two inactive slots, and at this point in the game, he really should be using his vote for something, regardless of his interest.