Open 753: Nomination Mafia [Game Over!]


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Post Post #1329 (isolation #200) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:32 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'd like to hammer.
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Post Post #1332 (isolation #201) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:37 pm

Post by Shoshin »

How often do your scumreads flip scum, Wazoo?
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Post Post #1333 (isolation #202) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:37 pm

Post by Shoshin »

And I checked your games, Wazoo, so don't lie.
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Post Post #1336 (isolation #203) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:40 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1334, GrandWazoo wrote:If that's true, then you know I nailed scum my first two games.
I saw obvious scum lynched (e.g. tracked scum) but you consistently scumread town in all your games.
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Post Post #1340 (isolation #204) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:47 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Both his reads are wrong.
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Post Post #1343 (isolation #205) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:54 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Wazoo has also townread scum.
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Post Post #1346 (isolation #206) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:57 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'm also talking about Egix.
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #207) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:01 pm

Post by Shoshin »

You actually townread Egix before compromising onto him to make sure there was a lynch. Your vote is actually hilarious in your expectation for a town flip.
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Post Post #1351 (isolation #208) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:02 pm

Post by Shoshin »

It's also besides the point since your play here is so different from your town play. And your reasons for scumreading RC & me are actually terrible, and if you were town you would have moved off us already.
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Post Post #1352 (isolation #209) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:03 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Contrary to his claim, he's not good pre-flip. But I agree that he's better than he's been this game. Tunneling us the way he has doesn't square at all with his constant warnings as town against certainty on D1.
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Post Post #1358 (isolation #210) » Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:44 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Hey Volxen, what're your reads?
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Post Post #1376 (isolation #211) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:02 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1368, GrandWazoo wrote:Shoshin what scummy things have I done THIS game?
Scumreading me for things that aren't scummy. Scumreading RC for things that aren't scummy. Continuing to scumread me/RC despite having all your concerns addressed. Lack of fluidity in your reads. Lack of any attempt to consider other possibilities. Lack of questioning. Lack of new reads after you decided to scumread me/RC. Lack of any attempt to find third scum. Lack of development in your townreads. Internal inconsistency when it comes to scumreading me/RC while townreading Irrelephant/DT. Awkward interaction with DT/Clemency. Awkward phrasing, especially when changing votes. Opportunistic voting patterns. Unnatural dumb tells. Ignoring my questions for days. Repeatedly misrepresenting me/RC. Pretending meta isn't relevant.
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Post Post #1377 (isolation #212) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

Also:

Awkward laugh.
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Post Post #1384 (isolation #213) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 9:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

You need to step it up if you're town, Fusco.
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #214) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:33 am

Post by Shoshin »

You sound really unmotivated to find the scum.
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Post Post #1396 (isolation #215) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:45 am

Post by Shoshin »

What makes me "overbearing," "overcompensating," or "a dick"?
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Post Post #1397 (isolation #216) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

Fuck that, Irrelephant. I'm saying he sounds unmotivated because he said he's "not looking forward to reading" when he's intentionally staying in this game instead of replacing out. How isn't that scummy?
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Post Post #1398 (isolation #217) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why do you even townlean Fusco in the first place?
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Post Post #1399 (isolation #218) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

Even when I'm busy I make more contributions than Fusco has in the past four days, Irrelephant. Work isn't an excuse to say you're not looking forward to reading the game.
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Post Post #1406 (isolation #219) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:56 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1401, Irrelephant11 wrote:All I’m saying is in the case that he’s town he won’t be showing it any time soon if you are criticizing him as he tries to re enter the thread
I'm not "criticizing" his play, I'm doing my best to read his alignment based on what he's posted. He's not giving me much to work with so I have to read what's there. His lack of scumhunting is scummy. His lack of motivation to scumhunt is scummy. And his vote on RC earlier was scummy. How the hell are you townreading this, Irrel?
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Post Post #1413 (isolation #220) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:03 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I like Churches.
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Post Post #1415 (isolation #221) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:03 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'm worried posting music is a scum tell for RC. Do you do this as town usually?
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Post Post #1416 (isolation #222) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I never said why I like churches, RC. I do unspeakable things there.
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Post Post #1424 (isolation #223) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:23 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I already said I'm going to hammer.
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Post Post #1435 (isolation #224) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:40 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'm locktown on Auro but otherwise okay reads.
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Post Post #1436 (isolation #225) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:40 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Can you talk about why Volx is so towny?
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Post Post #1455 (isolation #226) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:17 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Take your time, Volx. Won't change Wazoo's alignment.
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Post Post #1456 (isolation #227) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:22 pm

Post by Shoshin »

What's your read on Fusco, RC?
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Post Post #1458 (isolation #228) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:47 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I want to know the read before we get Wazoo's flip.
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Post Post #1459 (isolation #229) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:47 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'll hammer if you tell.
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Post Post #1460 (isolation #230) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:48 pm

Post by Shoshin »

So that you can sleep easy tonight.
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Post Post #1462 (isolation #231) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:59 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I was hoping for more words than that.
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Post Post #1463 (isolation #232) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:59 pm

Post by Shoshin »

But whatever.

VOTE: GrandWazoo
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Post Post #1466 (isolation #233) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:07 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Any final words?
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #234) » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:12 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Are you actually town? I don't believe you.
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Post Post #1506 (isolation #235) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:44 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Well, that's no surprise.
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Post Post #1507 (isolation #236) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:45 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Volxen, how do you feel about being the lynch since one of us has to?
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Post Post #1513 (isolation #237) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:17 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Why isn't Irrelephant getting lynched, SR?
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Post Post #1515 (isolation #238) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1512, Auro wrote:Shoshin, I'd like for you to respond to my earlier question re: when I became locktown for you.
While rereading, post .
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Post Post #1516 (isolation #239) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:19 pm

Post by Shoshin »

I'm also never lynching RC & Auro, so I'm glad scum didn't nominate them.
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Post Post #1517 (isolation #240) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:23 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Why is Irrelephant town, Auro? What the fuck is up with these townreads on Irrel?
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Post Post #1518 (isolation #241) » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:24 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Maybe I'm clearing Auro to quickly.
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Post Post #1523 (isolation #242) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:24 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1519, Auro wrote:His treatment of my slot - in the Newbie game I played alongside town!him, he townread me, and attempted to achieve consensus on that read after a couple others TR'd me, too.

He did the same thing in this game as well, and I do not see scum!him intentionally doing that. I'll dig up the quotes when I can.
Very bad reason to townread Irrel. I strongly suggest you look at his scum games for comparison. Remember, he prefers scum for a reason.
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #243) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:27 am

Post by Shoshin »

I think Irrelephant's posting has hints of knowing Wazoo would flip town. I thought his townread on Fusco was fake. And as I said at the start of the game, calling me "ick" was terrible coming from him. I also don't see why Auro wasn't nominated and suspect it's because Irrelephant wants to keep him alive while removing actual threats (e.g. me or Volx).
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Post Post #1525 (isolation #244) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 12:30 am

Post by Shoshin »

I think RC wasn't nominated because scum are saving him as a mislynch. Irrelephant's the only one of us three that I think would have pushed RC's lynch on D3. I never would have lynched him regardless Wazoo's flip. And Volx, who knows? Irrelephant definitely was setting up RC's mislynch for Wazoo's flip, though.
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Post Post #1562 (isolation #245) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 6:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

I read the big bold parts. I'm gonna borrow that tactic, good way to make sure the important bits get read.
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Post Post #1570 (isolation #246) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:07 am

Post by Shoshin »

Let's talk a bit about scum Irrelephant, Auro.

1. He's more tryhard as scum than town. It might not seem that way in the thread but he's extremely active in scum PMs. He constantly talks with partners about how & what town tells to drop in the thread. He talks about how to emulate his town game. He talks about who to manipulate, who to pocket, who to mislynch, who to bring with them to LYLO. He's not the sort of player who just wings it.

2. As scum, he actively pockets players he thinks he can pocket. He also tends to townread townies more than scumread them, especially earlier in the game. I'm not sure if he's aware of these tendencies, though my guess is that he's doing it because it's similar to his town game. The fact that he townread you isn't towny for him because he'd do it as scum too. The fact that he wanted others to townread you also isn't towny for him because he'd do it as scum. The reality is, you weren't ever getting lynched yesterday so there wasn't any harm for scum Irrelephant to strongly push you as town.

3. Scum Irrelephant nominates himself maybe 75% of the time because he knows getting nominated puts him closer to locktown. Yes, it's WIFOM. It's also how Irrelephant thinks. It's similar to how RC thinks in some respects. That said, Irrel wouldn't nominate himself with two obvious townies (e.g. Auro/RC/Irrelephant leads to Irrelephant's death). He nominates with threats who look scummier than him. Volx is a strong choice because he's been so absent from the game that he's easily mislynchable, plus there's always a risk of Volx becoming a threat later in the game. I'm a strong choice because I'm unfairly tunneled by a few players, RC randomly imploded by calling me scum, so if there's ever a chance to get me mislynched, this is it. I'm also by far Irrelephant's strongest threat so scum Irrelephant definitely knows I need to be mislynched if he's going to win this game.

That said, there's a strong likelihood that scum didn't nominate any scum. I'm trying to find scum among townies so obviously the "case" on either Irrel/Volx will look weaker than normal. You need to be thinking about who the scum would be among this group if there's scum. I know it's not me. I know that Irrel's reads feel fake (especially that read on Fusco). I know that scum Irrelephant wants to keep people who will defend him alive (i.e .you), so that would explain why you weren't nominated. These things point to scum Irrel relative to Volx. I also think scum Volx nominates you because he knows you're a threat to him, in the same way that I'm a threat to Irrel.
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Post Post #1572 (isolation #247) » Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:13 am

Post by Shoshin »

I did, don't worry.
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Post Post #1646 (isolation #248) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1623, Auro wrote:Shoshin, can you link to some good scumgames of Irre's, which you think has similar patterns of behaviour to this game?
I think all his scum games have similar patterns to his town games. I recommend you look at his scum PTs more than his behavior, as you'll get a sense of how he thinks about the game & that's more useful for finding him in subsequent games.
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Post Post #1648 (isolation #249) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:35 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1625, Auro wrote:And to Shoshin:
1. If you were suspect that Irre was scum, why was your first post D2 asking Volxen if he'd like to take the lynch?
2. Can you point to anything that makes you objectively town? (There's a reason I'm asking this, even if it's a dumb question)
1. I had him as scummier than Irrel on D1 so that was my starting point coming into this.

2. Yes, but it's self-meta so even though it's objectively correct your source is subjective.
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Post Post #1651 (isolation #250) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:39 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1626, Auro wrote:Also @Shoshin: I'm not seeing how you arrive at the conclusion that I'm town from that post of mine; could you elaborate?
When I started rereading the game, I had Clemency as a scumread. But when I read that "grain of salt" post, I couldn't help but think it was towny. Seeing you have the exact same thought made me feel like you were reacting to subtle points in ways that I don't think scum ever pick up on, especially since I'm pretty sure Clem's actually scum. I tend to locktown people over these sorts of things all the time (often subtle, based on one post, early in the game, discovered while rereading).
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Post Post #1652 (isolation #251) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1649, Auro wrote:Shoshin, did you meta-check me?
No.
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Post Post #1653 (isolation #252) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:42 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1650, Auro wrote:
In post 1648, Shoshin wrote:Yes, but it's self-meta so even though it's objectively correct your source is subjective.
You did the same in Starcraft Mafia 2 though. Or was it TW?
I don't remember, almost all posts were the worst.

I'm a strong believer in the validity of self-meta but I always get called scummy for it so unless you want me to self-meta I'm not going to.
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Post Post #1655 (isolation #253) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

I don't think RC replaces out if he actually thought I was scum.
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Post Post #1657 (isolation #254) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

RC did the work of pushing Wazoo's lynch. I was just trying to figure out if Wazoo was bad town or scum for most of the day.
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Post Post #1670 (isolation #255) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 7:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

If scum wanted to guarantee a lynch on a particular player, they would have nominated Auro, RC, & the player to be lynched. If scum Auro wants Volx dead, he nominates himself & RC along with Volx. The fact he didn't points strongly to town Auro. It also means scum are sloppy & clueless, or they're trying to create chaos with these picks.

Volx is biting the bait by turning on Auro. We need to avoid this, Volx. Do you really think Auro plays this game as scum? It's highly unlikely he's scum trying to remove you from the game.

The nominations point to the same people who were likely scum before the nominations: DT, Clemency, Vedith, Fusco, with an off chance it's Irrelephant.
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Post Post #1672 (isolation #256) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:36 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hey Irrelephant, sorry to hear about family emergency. I hope everything is okay.

I'm not scumreading scumreading you. I townread everyone who was nominated. I'd lynch all of DT, Clem, Vedith, & Fusco before I lynched you, which means you're stronger town than at least one other townie.

If I pretend we're in 3-way LYLO with you, me, and Volx, I come out with you as scummier than Volx, for the reasons I've given. It's not a matter of changing my mind about you so much as comparing you with Volx. If you're both town, it's not really fair but that's the nature of this setup. The important thing is that we don't get sidetracked tomorrow by unnecessarily scumreading the players who were nominated.

That said, I'm open to hearing what you have to say about the game. If you think Volx is scum, please talk about it. If you think I'm wrong about townreading Auro/Alonzo, I'd also like to know that. I'd like to go into the rest of this game with as much input from you as possible.
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Post Post #1673 (isolation #257) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:39 am

Post by Shoshin »

A large part of my read on you, Irrel, comes from this thought process: "I'm in 3-way LYLO with two players that are equally town. Who do I lynch? The one that I think is better as scum. Irrelephant."
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Post Post #1679 (isolation #258) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:53 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1675, volxen wrote:Shoshin literally everything is within Auro's scumrange, as scum he generates WIFOM on top of WIFOM on top of WIFOM. That's why he is a genuinely hard player to read in spite of the fact that we hydra a lot together. You make somewhat of a fair point here, but your assertion that the nomination list would be {Auro, Alonzo, Volxen} if the goal was to specifically take me out of the game assumes that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown based on RC's replace out (scum knew that Alonzo was replacing into RC's slot during the break phase). I have Alonzo as locktown for that reason, but that would be a big assumption for the scumteam to make to assume that Alonzo would be 100% lynch proof. If RC were still in the game I would agree with you more, but it makes sense to include at least two towny players from day one that are still in the game in the nomination list, and Alonzo replacing RC is going to affect the viability of him being included in the nomination list or not.
1. I strongly believe that your paranoid approach to sorting strong scum players doesn't work. I also don't think that players who generate lots of WIFOM necessarily have a large scumrange. It's usually the opposite. And besides, Auro hasn't generated any WIFOM this game so you're proving my point that he's town.

2. I'm not assuming that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown. I'm just saying that Auro's smart enough to. It doesn't take that much to realize RC's locktown after his replacement.

3. If RC were still in the game, he'd be suspect to many players for leading a mislynch, so suspect that he'd likely be the nomination lynch unless it was something stupid like DT/Clem/RC.
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Post Post #1692 (isolation #259) » Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:09 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1690, volxen wrote:@Shoshin, I'm not understanding why you are exercising so much caution with your Irrelephant read but you have essentially locked down Auro as an "easy" townread. I get that you have a lot of experience with Irrelephant and you are very familiar with his scumgame whereas this is basically your first game ever with Auro, but I'm telling you that Auro is also an incredibly strong scum player (he has a 100% scum win rate) like Irrelephant is, and me saying this doesn't even seem to phase you in the slightest. Why are you so confident that Auro is locktown? Because it sounds like you are as confident about Auro being locktown as you are about Alonzo being locktown, and I'm not understanding why that is.
I'm less confident reading Irrel because Irrel knows a lot more about what sorts of things I find towny.
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Post Post #1705 (isolation #260) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:15 am

Post by Shoshin »

Best reason for lynching Volx today: to prevent Auro's mislynch later.
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Post Post #1707 (isolation #261) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:22 am

Post by Shoshin »

Volx, you need to promise me you're not going to mislynch Auro regardless of Irrel's flip.
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Post Post #1729 (isolation #262) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

That's random.
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Post Post #1736 (isolation #263) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 875, Shoshin wrote:I'm never voting you, Irrel.
I said this on D1.
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Post Post #1745 (isolation #264) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:18 pm

Post by Shoshin »

SR's locktown.

The scum are within DT, Clem, Vedith, and Fusco.
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Post Post #1754 (isolation #265) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:34 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1750, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 1745, Shoshin wrote:SR's locktown.

The scum are within DT, Clem, Vedith, and Fusco.
You think fusco is the only scum that participated in Wazoo’s lynch
I don't think scum always vote for a mislynch. Context matters. I think they were setting up a mislynch on RC knowing Wazoo would flip town. I don't think they expected us to townread RC as strongly as we do.
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #266) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:57 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1768, Auro wrote:@Shoshin: What do you make of Irre's willingness to be today's lynch?
Null for him. It's a very towny looking thing that actually isn't towny when you think about it.
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Post Post #1772 (isolation #267) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:58 pm

Post by Shoshin »

This is where I remind everyone that I tried steering RC to a Fusco lynch yesterday. If he flips scum, I'm taking credit for that one.
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #268) » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:58 pm

Post by Shoshin »

And if he flips town, I just embarrassed myself pretty badly, I guess.
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Post Post #1797 (isolation #269) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:14 am

Post by Shoshin »

It's like Fusco isn't reading.

Auro's locktown.

DO NOT LYNCH HIM WHEN I FLIP TOWN.

Volx voting me is bad.

Irrel realizing I'm town is good.

I now trust Irrel not to mislynch Auro more than Volx.
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Post Post #1799 (isolation #270) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:20 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why not Irrel?
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Post Post #1808 (isolation #271) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

SR, unvote while you give me a chance to town case myself.
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Post Post #1810 (isolation #272) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:13 am

Post by Shoshin »

The idea of killing the stronger townie instead of the stronger scum among a group of three likely townies doesn't make any sense by the way.
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Post Post #1842 (isolation #273) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:09 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1823, Auro wrote:I don't think self-meta is scummy, it's actually pretty useful.
I agree on self-meta.
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #274) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:23 am

Post by Shoshin »

If DT's town, he's letting a personal grudge get in the way of this game.
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Post Post #1855 (isolation #275) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:25 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1846, scum reading wrote:She’s not scum hunting at all, she’s just relying on RC’s reads and go from there, so I don’t see that scum hunting case you brought up, Auro
This is untrue.
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Post Post #1859 (isolation #276) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

SR, your perception of my posting is wrong. Why are you downplaying my contributions to the game?
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Post Post #1865 (isolation #277) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:17 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1860, scum reading wrote:
In post 1859, Shoshin wrote:SR, your perception of my posting is wrong. Why are you downplaying my contributions to the game?
Not downplaying, it’s just that I’m not used to your kind of play style. I don’t know how you play and that is making me doubt myself. I’d like if you gave a full reads list, because most of your posts are questions and you aren’t explaining your thought process after you’ve asked those questions, so I’m paying more attention to you right now.I’d like more transparency coming from you
I've made my reads & reasoning clear from the start. Look at all the scumhunting from D1:

Spoiler:
In post 302, Shoshin wrote:
In post 287, Auro wrote:Why the naked votes, sans explanation?
Is it Irre's excitement that makes you think he's scum?
If not, what is?
Naked votes test reactions differently than non-naked ones.

Irrel's excitement means he's scum, yes.

He's also scum for stoking RC's paranoia about me when he knows better.
In post 314, Shoshin wrote:Oh, nice. RC's town, then. Good read on his part.
In post 391, Shoshin wrote:I think you're letting Irrel off too easy for scumreading me when he should know better. I understand why RC would get paranoid but Irrel should know that my play here wasn't anything like what he saw as scum.
In post 392, Shoshin wrote:Clemency is bad, agreed. DT, not sure. Wazoo, I got a bad vibe from initially but something he said later feels town to me.
In post 463, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Fuscosco
In post 465, Shoshin wrote:If RC's town, this game's solved, though. That wagon on him was terrible, especially on the part of DT, Clemency, and Fusco.
In post 512, Shoshin wrote:
In post 508, GrandWazoo wrote:I get the feeling DT is trying to gamesolve and not too worried about appearing scummy doing it.
I don't see him trying to solve anything. His analysis has nothing close to the nuance a townie's would. He's actively creating a negative environment, especially with the way he's interacted with RC, the way he's interacted with Irrel, and now the way he's trying to bait me.
In post 514, Shoshin wrote:I'd also add that DT is cluttering the game with tons of pointless posts that make it harder to reread for solving purposes. He's leading a wagon on RC who's the worst possible lynch on D1. And he's blatantly playing a WIFOM-based game since he's blatantly doing the opposite of what you think scum would do, even though what he's doing is completely unnatural for a townie to do.
In post 520, Shoshin wrote:RC's the worst possible lynch on D1 because he's going to be nominated. Why would we ever waste an odd-lynch on RC when we can do it on an even one? He's also the worst possible lynch on D1 because he's one of the strongest townies on this site, meaning it would be a massive windfall for the scum to lynch town him on D1 (especially since he won't have time to catch the scum for us, plus it causes his to become self-destructive), whereas saving a lynch on scum RC for D2 doesn't hurt town at all because we still have the opportunity to lynch his partners.
In post 530, Shoshin wrote:RC self-votes as both alignments when he's treated unfairly.
In post 575, Shoshin wrote:
In post 571, RadiantCowbells wrote:What should I do if DT flips town?
Lynch Clemency or Fusco.
In post 606, Shoshin wrote:DT/Fusco/Clemency are scum. Maybe I'm wrong on DT and just want him lynched, in which case it's still Fusco/Clemency. Fusco, for sure.
In post 612, Shoshin wrote:Because Fus would have let lynch on RC happen without even trying to develop a counterwagon. And that awkward interaction with Clemency that felt like scum/scum.
In post 615, Shoshin wrote:Oh yeah, demon could be scum too. The whole "I forgot about this game" line comes from scum too often to ignore.
In post 620, Shoshin wrote:
In post 264, Fuscosco wrote:I townread you.
In post 265, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 258, Auro wrote:"Let Auro swing" huh?
Ive never been shy about a D1 infolynch.
Or a nullscum lynch.
Or just throwing around pressure.


I have to read this all tomorrow and sort it out. I stopped reading most of RC/Auro/DT for the night.
In post 418, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 379, RadiantCowbells wrote:toying with volxen scum, he seems less invested in this game than I would expect him to be and there's not really any smoking guns. still think the reasons given to scumread him were trash.
yuuuss
In post 419, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 410, RadiantCowbells wrote:i'm done sorry this game is unpleasant for my sanity.

VOTE: RC
VOTE: RadCow
In post 420, Fuscosco wrote:fuck that noise rc
In post 422, Fuscosco wrote:Replace out like a man. or at least like a veteran townie would
In post 429, Fuscosco wrote:I'm not playing the rc meta game. I've been out a few years and I have no clue how RC has developed.

But Im willing to fry mu null read who just AtEd
In post 438, Fuscosco wrote:is rc l-1?
In post 448, Fuscosco wrote::/

VOTE: unvote
In post 453, Fuscosco wrote::|

im not convinced, but Im still mobile and cant properly take notes
This is scum.
In post 622, Shoshin wrote:
In post 55, Clemency wrote:i confirmed my role two minutes ago and i've honest to god already forgotten
Same scum tell as demon. It's definitely one of these two or both.
In post 684, Shoshin wrote:Irrel shouldn't have stoked RC's paranoia about me. Irrel should have had me as null or town, not "ick."
In post 734, Shoshin wrote:I don't see why RC's townreading Wazoo.
In post 738, Shoshin wrote:I don't understand how someone like Wazoo townreads DT while scumreading me & RC.
In post 739, Shoshin wrote:And his scumhunting is super mechanical. Do you at any point feel like he's tried to sort me or RC?
In post 743, Shoshin wrote:Demon's scum.
In post 752, Shoshin wrote:Wazoo/Clemency/Demon is plausible, for sure. Wazoo could also just play like this. Reminds me of Gustavo.
In post 756, Shoshin wrote:Volxen's hope to play with town RC felt slightly townish. But I agree he's not town town.
In post 787, Shoshin wrote:Context, Auro. The problem is that there's a pattern of looking for options that aren't Clemency as evidenced by his vote on RC over Clemency and then by his attempt to build a counter wagon on me over Clemency (a wagon that clearly had the benefit of potentially attracting your vote away from Clemency given your recent posting). He's distancing from Clemency while opportunistically looking for ways to defend him.
In post 819, Shoshin wrote:I'd always lynch Fusco before I lynched Auro.
In post 825, Shoshin wrote:Look at Auro's "I prefer Demon but voting Clemency" bit.
In post 832, Shoshin wrote:Auro defending Volxen's inactivity feels pretty towny.
In post 918, Shoshin wrote:I prefer Fusco. Look how bad this is:
In post 265, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 258, Auro wrote:"Let Auro swing" huh?
Ive never been shy about a D1 infolynch.
Or a nullscum lynch.
Or just throwing around pressure.
Not scumhunting. And setting up potential mislynches.
In post 418, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 379, RadiantCowbells wrote:toying with volxen scum, he seems less invested in this game than I would expect him to be and there's not really any smoking guns. still think the reasons given to scumread him were trash.
yuuuss
Agrees with RC. Seems like Fusco should townread RC. Except:
In post 419, Fuscosco wrote:
In post 410, RadiantCowbells wrote:i'm done sorry this game is unpleasant for my sanity.

VOTE: RC
VOTE: RadCow
He votes RC in the next post. For reasons that have nothing to do with RC's alignment.
In post 429, Fuscosco wrote:I'm not playing the rc meta game. I've been out a few years and I have no clue how RC has developed.

But Im willing to fry mu null read who just AtEd
It defies belief that someone who hasn't played mafia in years ("out a few years") pushes a policy lynch as town without even trying to sort the player they're pushing (notice the "null read"). This is scum jumping on the opportunity to set RC up for a mislynch without having to do any scumhunting while it happens.
In post 1166, Shoshin wrote:Also, I still want to lynch Fusco unless he towns himself in the next few hours while he's at work.
In post 1168, Shoshin wrote:I'm still waiting on answers to my questions from Wazoo. I don't get why he's ignoring some while answering others. It's like he doesn't want me to townread him.
In post 1211, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Fusco
In post 1231, Shoshin wrote:I can't distinguish whether Wazoo's terribleness means he's bad town or bad scum. How are you distinguishing?
In post 1246, Shoshin wrote:Fusco isn't scumhunting despite presenting himself as reasonable, and he jumped on the opportunity to push an easy mislynch on RC.
In post 1297, Shoshin wrote:DT's scum. He shouldn't be scumreading me at this point.
In post 1311, Shoshin wrote:VOTE: Clemency
In post 1351, Shoshin wrote:It's also besides the point since your play here is so different from your town play. And your reasons for scumreading RC & me are actually terrible, and if you were town you would have moved off us already.
In post 1352, Shoshin wrote:Contrary to his claim, he's not good pre-flip. But I agree that he's better than he's been this game. Tunneling us the way he has doesn't square at all with his constant warnings as town against certainty on D1.
In post 1376, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1368, GrandWazoo wrote:Shoshin what scummy things have I done THIS game?
Scumreading me for things that aren't scummy. Scumreading RC for things that aren't scummy. Continuing to scumread me/RC despite having all your concerns addressed. Lack of fluidity in your reads. Lack of any attempt to consider other possibilities. Lack of questioning. Lack of new reads after you decided to scumread me/RC. Lack of any attempt to find third scum. Lack of development in your townreads. Internal inconsistency when it comes to scumreading me/RC while townreading Irrelephant/DT. Awkward interaction with DT/Clemency. Awkward phrasing, especially when changing votes. Opportunistic voting patterns. Unnatural dumb tells. Ignoring my questions for days. Repeatedly misrepresenting me/RC. Pretending meta isn't relevant.
In post 1392, Shoshin wrote:You sound really unmotivated to find the scum.
In post 1397, Shoshin wrote:Fuck that, Irrelephant. I'm saying he sounds unmotivated because he said he's "not looking forward to reading" when he's intentionally staying in this game instead of replacing out. How isn't that scummy?
In post 1399, Shoshin wrote:Even when I'm busy I make more contributions than Fusco has in the past four days, Irrelephant. Work isn't an excuse to say you're not looking forward to reading the game.
In post 1406, Shoshin wrote:
In post 1401, Irrelephant11 wrote:All I’m saying is in the case that he’s town he won’t be showing it any time soon if you are criticizing him as he tries to re enter the thread
I'm not "criticizing" his play, I'm doing my best to read his alignment based on what he's posted. He's not giving me much to work with so I have to read what's there. His lack of scumhunting is scummy. His lack of motivation to scumhunt is scummy. And his vote on RC earlier was scummy. How the hell are you townreading this, Irrel?

And if you look at D2, I've already said that the scum are likely within the group of DT, Clemency, Vedith, and Fusco. In other words, the same reads I've had since D1.

And now, compare my posts with Volx or Irrel. You'll find as much or more content in my posting than theirs. They might use more words but that reflects on their wordiness, not the actual content.
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Post Post #1866 (isolation #278) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:20 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1863, scum reading wrote:I am used to townies picking on a person at a time, instead, you are focused way too much to scum hunt from a larger pool. I would narrow it down to a few people and scum hunt from there, but first day you accused Wazoo, Fus, me, DT, Clemency, even RC for a bit, Irrelephant but you didn’t really push someone with full conviction. From my experiences, townies tend to tunnel someone and try to scum hunt them, but you are the exact opposite. I come from a place of doubt since I wasn’t exposed to this kind of play style, but I’m willing to change my mind if you give me reasons to do so. I’d like Volxen to give his opinion on your slot as well, I am townreading him the most at the moment.
This is my most recently completed town game:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=78267

You'll see notice the exact same approach in that game as the approach I've taken in this game. I don't need to find all the scum as long as I find enough townies to win the game.
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Post Post #1868 (isolation #279) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:00 am

Post by Shoshin »

A town case:

1. Meta


As a matter of comparison, here's my my most recent scum game (https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=77970). It doesn't take a lot to see the differences there.

My priority as scum was to manipulate the most influential townies in the game (e.g. Irrel, the worst, Nauci, etc.) into townreading me. I did this by actively townreading them as quickly as possible, questioning them for not townreading me, and exclusively attacking players who questioned my towniness. I normalized my towniness as quickly as possible so that I eventually became the most townread player in the game. I was unlynchable at all points of that game.

In short, I behaved in ways that I predicted would get me townread. I never alienated anyone. I didn't take risks. I didn't use WIFOM. I played a simple game of manipulation.

In this game, I didn't try manipulating the most influential players into townreading me. On the contrary, I spent the early parts of this game trying to sort the strongest scum players: Irrel, Auro, & RC. Rather than manipulate these players into townreading me, I relentlessly tested their reactions while trying to sort. I knew this wouldn't help me get townread but I thought sorting these players ASAP was more important than having them townread me, at least in the short term.

a. Irrel


I voted Irrel for reasons that I knew would alienate a number of players, especially the bit about how he prefers scum. I was testing reactions so that I could sort Irrel as well as others around him.

Irrel knows that I know he prefers scum, so I knew Irrel would understand why I was voting him, at least to some extent. I predicted that town Irrel wouldn't let paranoia fester about me -- he's clear up my vote for those who didn't understand -- whereas scum Irrel would let the paranoia fester to potentially set up my mislynch.

This is how I sort Irrel in most of my games (e.g. is he allowing paranoia to fester when he could easily clear it up based on his meta knowledge?). And I can point to previous town games where I've townread Irrel based on the way he prevents paranoia from festering, so if you need further meta evidence that this is how I approach sorting Irrelephant (with 100% accuracy so far over multiple games), that can be provided as well.

As scum, I never approach the game by testing reactions because it's too risky. There's no reason for me to unnecessarily attract suspicion of others (including Irrel), or to create a situation where paranoia about me could arise in the first place, when I easily could have easily manipulated Irrel into townreading without attracting any suspicion or doing any actual scumhunting.

If I were scum, it would have been very easy for me to say nothing about Irrel's alignment, or to townread him. The fact I didn't do those things is strongly town indicative for me.

b. Auro


I slightly ignored Auro's questioning at the start of this game to test his reactions. He doesn't know me so I expected to receive flak from him. I also knew his questions would eventually be cleared up without any problem, and I believed town Auro would quickly reevaluate my alignment if he were to scumread me at first.

As a result of my test, Auro engaged a strong line of questioning on me that was one of the towniest things in the game. His push was especially towny because he felt so unconcerned about addressing my concerns about him & almost exclusively focused on trying to understand my thought process. His lack of self-concern in that push is part of why I'm locktown on Auro.

I don't engage this sort of subtle testing as scum because it unnecessarily attracts suspicion without any upside. Auro didn't leave that conversation townreading. On the contrary, he left it with lots of paranoia about my slot, paranoia that I let sit for the moment because again I wasn't worried about my appearance. The upside of my initial play around Auro is that I was able to townread one of the strongest scum players in the game.

This is something I exclusively do as town, not as scum. I never alienate a player like Auro as scum, especially when I predict that Auro would push me in precisely the way he did. My goal as scum isn't to be pushed because, again, I don't take risks as scum. I do things that have predictable responses (from my perspective), and those predicted responses are myself being townread.

c. RC


This is the biggest one. I never vote or push RC in any manner on D1 if I'm scum, straight-up never. I keep calling him town until LYLO. This is the biggest town tell for me, although you probably won't understand it if you don't know our history.

If I were scum, I relentlessly defend RC throughout the game because doing so causes RC to keep me alive. RC struggles with surviving, so if there's someone keeping him alive, he'll keep that person alive even if the player might be scum. And, in my case, it's especially the case because RC really really doesn't want to mislynch me. He'd feel too bad about it. As long as I defend RC, RC never pushes my lynch unless he's absolutely certain I'm scum, meaning he keeps me alive until LYLO.

As far as I'm concerned, my win condition as scum against RC is bringing him to LYLO and then mislynching him with the argument that he's godtier scum who got inside my head. I don't see myself losing in this circumstance with this player list, especially given Irrel's paranoia of scum RC. Plus, I think Irrel would prefer losing to scum me over scum RC. This would be much easier than trying to fake genuine attempts to actually sort RC, which as you've seen in this game, don't necessarily cause RC to townread me.

--

There's another massive difference between my play here and my play as scum: the way I interacted with Wazoo.

As scum, I don't keep interacting with a known mislynch, continuously trying to sort them. Look at how I interact with the mislynches in Starcraft. I occasionally made cases and then ignored the lynches until they died. I didn't show any genuine interest in their thought process, nor did I give them any chances to prove to me they were town.

But in this game, I kept trying to give Wazoo a chance. I read through his games (something I'm very unlikely to do as scum), kept trying to understand his reasoning, rereading this game to see if what he was saying made any sense. I never do this unnecessary stuff as scum, especially since I'd be worried that the more I interacted with Wazoo, the more I'd betray my informed perspective about his alignment.

3. Nominations

If I were scum in this game, I never nominate myself.

For starters, RC replaced out of the game calling me scum, so if I were actually scum, I would have been scared shitless that the townies would sheep him. I'd especially be worried about it because of how much flak I received on D1 from multiple players:

DT votes me regardless of what happens.

Fusco votes me because I called him scum.

SR votes me because I called explanations scummy and because he's misreading me based on stylistic differences (as well just mistaking wordiness for content when that's not the case).

Irrel votes me because he sheeps obvtown RC.

Auro votes me because I potentially alienated him yesterday.

Clemency votes me because he's a troll who maybe sheeps RC.

RC's replacement votes me because he's sheeping RC.

You get the point. If I'm scum, why would I take this risk? What's the upside? Do I suddenly become confirmed if I survive the nomination phase? No, there's no upside. I never take this risk as scum.

That said, even if I were to nominate myself as scum, I do so only with players who I reasonably could survive against. In other words, I'm not putting myself against Irrel/Volx. That's like flipping a coin. It's suicide as scum, something I'd never do.

Who do I take with me if I'm scum? I take the townie from the group of DT, Clemency, Fusco, Vedith. I might take SR. I might take one of Irrel/Volx but not both. I create an environment where my chances of survival are better than just flipping a coin.

Again, I don't play a WIFOM game as scum. And my scum meta bears that out. I win games as scum by taking minimal risks while manipulating players into townreading me with strong day play. If I'm scum in this game, I never nominate myself. It's an extraordinary risk with no reward.
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Post Post #1878 (isolation #280) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:48 pm

Post by Shoshin »

It's not. This situation sucks.
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Post Post #1882 (isolation #281) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:32 pm

Post by Shoshin »

No.
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Post Post #1887 (isolation #282) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:15 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Have you read the whole game?
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Post Post #1888 (isolation #283) » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:18 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Are you disappointed your slot is town?
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Post Post #1897 (isolation #284) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1889, Auro wrote:Shoshin, your self-case is sound; however:
1. You assert that your reason for townreading Irre (based upon allowing paranoia on you to fester) is a reason you've used multiple times in the past accurately - does this not imply a good chance of Irre being aware about it? Also if your reads have been on the wrong side, this provides scum!Irre incentive to keep you in the game, no?
2. You mention this: "I spent the early parts of this game trying to sort the strongest scum players: Irrel, Auro, & RC". However, Volxen only brought up that my scum game is strong midway through the game; and you said you didn't meta-check me, and this is basically the first game we played. Did you know I was a strong scum player at the beginning? How?

Additionally, if DT's town, there's reason to believe his push is clouded by personal reservations, as you pointed out. Would you agree that it benefits town if you do adapt and answer his questions, as a good-faith gesture? If you agree, then why not do that?
I really don't feel like answering some of these questions in-depth right now.

I'm just going to say that I was familiar with your play before the game, not from Starcraft 2, and there's more going on with the Irrel read than just the paranoia stuff, though notice I was also testing to see how aware of the point he was by scumreading him precisely for stoking RC's paranoia.
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Post Post #1898 (isolation #285) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why are we voting Volx over Irrel? That's the question I want to know.
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Post Post #1944 (isolation #286) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:12 am

Post by Shoshin »

I can see scum aren't too happy about losing out the chance to mislynch me.
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Post Post #1945 (isolation #287) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:13 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm gonna take a look at Volx games to get a better sense of his town/scum meta.
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Post Post #1946 (isolation #288) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

DT pushing my lynch because says he can't work with me is pretty scummy.
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Post Post #1949 (isolation #289) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:29 am

Post by Shoshin »

What're your actual reads, DT?
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Post Post #1951 (isolation #290) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:32 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel, or Auro, or Alonzo, or someone, please ask DT what his reads are. It appears he has none.
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Post Post #1953 (isolation #291) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:40 am

Post by Shoshin »

If you quickly list your reads from town to scum, I'll be inclined to believe you actually have reads & might townread you for it.
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Post Post #1994 (isolation #292) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:51 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1991, volxen wrote:@Irrelephant, If Shoshin is somehow locktown then help me to understand why, because I’m there with you but I don’t know how to get there with Shoshin. You know her better than anyone else here, and I am 100% convinced that you are town, so explain to me why you are convinced beyond all doubt that she is town.
Help me get to locktown on Irrel. If I can do that, I'll lynch you over him in a heartbeat.
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Post Post #1997 (isolation #293) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:53 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Scum really want me lynched today.
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Post Post #1998 (isolation #294) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:55 pm

Post by Shoshin »

If I made that town case for nothing, I'm going to be really upset with the townies in this game.
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Post Post #2000 (isolation #295) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Which posts?
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Post Post #2006 (isolation #296) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:35 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2002, volxen wrote:@Shoshin, My townlock of Irrelephant is based purely off of the fact that scum!Irrelephant inserting himself into a {Irrelephant, Shoshin, Volxen} nomination list is far too risky for him, as I explained at length in a previous post. It's a "mechanical read" in that sense, but it's one that I am 100% confident of. Irrelephant is never scum in this game.

If you aren't going to be the "nightkill" today, then I want to resolve your slot once and for all before this day phase ends, regardless of which one of me or Irrelephant is "nightkilled". I believe that you are capable of deep wolfing as scum, and I fully trust Irrelephant at this point, so if he tells me that he is 100% confident that you are town, that will at least help me to feel better about your slot.

I would also like to know from Irrelephant how accurate he is at reading you on average in games where you are both town.
Why is nominating himself too risky for Irrel? Your previous explanation is insufficient. If you can't explain it to me in a simple sentence, the explanation is too complex to be correct and your confidence doesn't make me feel better at all. If anything, it just makes me lose faith in your ability to make sure town wins this after I'm dead.

And your paranoia that I'm scum but not Irrel doesn't make sense when your reasoning for townreading Irrel applies twice over to me. Like, it was 100x more risky for me to nominate myself than for Irrel to nominate himself, and Irrel's a stronger scum player than me to boot, meaning he's far more capable of deep wolfing than I am. Your logic is total nonsense, Volx.

If this is the level of your analysis as town, I have no confidence in your ability to win this game for town at all, no offense.
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Post Post #2008 (isolation #297) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

If I'm killed after all the work I put in to defend myself, I'm going to be really upset. If I'm lynched, please follow my road map to winning. Don't deviate. Don't overthink things. Don't overcomplicate. Just follow the map. Irrel, don't fuck this up. It's on you to convince these players to follow.

You win by lynching Fusco, Chenn, Vedith, & DT. It doesn't matter what order. The lynch order for nominations is Fusco/Chenn/Vedith/DT (again it doesn't matter between them who goes first), Irrel/Volx (doesn't matter who), SR/Auro/Alonzo.

Under no circumstance should you ever lynch SR, Auro, or Alonzo unless all three have been nominated together, in which case lynch Auro because he's the strongest scum. You never lynch SR/Alonzo. Never.
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Post Post #2009 (isolation #298) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:07 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2007, volxen wrote:The shortened version of the explanation is that you know Irrelephant would sacrifice himself to stop you from getting lynched (as long as he was convinced that you are town), but you wouldn't do the same for him. That's why it's in fact "100x more risky" for scum!Irrelephant, because his only play here is to push me. You can push either of us.

You also confidently pushed GrandWazoo and you were wrong (if you are town).
I don't know Irrel would sacrifice himself, nor would I ever take that risk as scum, nor do I think scum Irrelephant would actually sacrifice himself (saying he will and following through are two different things).

RC confidently pushed Wazoo. I allowed the lynch to happen but that doesn't mean he was my preferred lynch. Again, I tried directing things elsewhere in case that slipped you.

Irrel also voted Wazoo, but even worse, randomly townread obvscum Fusco.
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Post Post #2012 (isolation #299) » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:38 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2010, volxen wrote:@Shoshin, Why don't you have Irrelephant as locktown based on my analysis? From my point of view it's much harder to townlock you than it is to townlock Irrelephant. Which is why I have asked Irrelephant to help me with evaluating your slot.
You seem to think scum Irrel wouldn't nominate himself with me & Volx. I disagree with that analysis. It comes down to what we think scum Irrel would do. Scum Irrel's playbook is much more expansive than you're giving him credit for.
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Post Post #2020 (isolation #300) » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm done efforting in this game until I know whether I survive. You have the road map to victory, that's all you need.
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Post Post #2022 (isolation #301) » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:26 am

Post by Shoshin »

I feel like that post was a massive scum tell for me in Starcraft and there's nothing even close to that in this game. I never said you should townread me here, I said you shouldn't scumread me. Big difference.
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Post Post #2025 (isolation #302) » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:38 am

Post by Shoshin »

At post 863, Irrel. And not even saying you should townread me, just that I expected more paranoia from you about RC.
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Post Post #2099 (isolation #303) » Fri Mar 15, 2019 6:57 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Alonzo's going to lose this game for us.
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Post Post #2104 (isolation #304) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:59 am

Post by Shoshin »

This game was won before your arrival, Alonzo. If you don't follow my map to winning, we lose. Don't fuck this up.
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Post Post #2105 (isolation #305) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

Auro, who do you prefer lynching between Irrel/Volx?
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Post Post #2106 (isolation #306) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Irrelephant
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Post Post #2109 (isolation #307) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 12:08 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Sorry I'm lynching you Irrel if you're town, I'm just paranoid because you townread Fusco.
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Post Post #2116 (isolation #308) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 3:22 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2115, Irrelephant11 wrote:
In post 2109, Shoshin wrote:Sorry I'm lynching you Irrel if you're town, I'm just paranoid because you townread Fusco.
Why have you never really been paranoid of me before now?
I've been paranoid since that townread.
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Post Post #2122 (isolation #309) » Sat Mar 16, 2019 7:08 pm

Post by Shoshin »

My wagon is composed of scum & Alonzo. It's a thing of comical absurdity in all respects.
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Post Post #2142 (isolation #310) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:11 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Fusco, why is your vote on me if you don't want me lynched? That doesn't make sense. Please vote Irrel.
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Post Post #2143 (isolation #311) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:12 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Volx, can you vote Irrel and stop being fucking stupid with your paranoia of me. It should be obvious to you that I'm town by now. More than obvious.
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Post Post #2144 (isolation #312) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:16 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Chenn, explain how the hell you ever scumread me after my town case?
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Post Post #2145 (isolation #313) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:16 pm

Post by Shoshin »

And don't tell me you townread all of us but want to lynch me over Irrel when we've already covered the fact that I'm the best person to keep alive if we're all three town.
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Post Post #2146 (isolation #314) » Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:23 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2141, volxen wrote:@Irrelephant, Do you think that scum!Shoshin would be able to reasonably predict that you would be willing to sacrifice yourself in order to stop her from getting nightkilled, as long as she could convince you that she is town? I'm just curious if you think that's a reasonable thought process to come from scum!Shoshin based on your history together, because if it is then it substantially reduces her risk in self-nominating as scum.
My prediction of Irrel's behavior around me is that he never sacrifices himself for me ever again because of what happened in Starcraft. I'm amazed he's doing it here and grateful but it's not at all what I ever would have predicted.
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Post Post #2150 (isolation #315) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 2:00 am

Post by Shoshin »

Can you explain why Irrel, the strongest scum player in the game, is locktown to you?
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Post Post #2184 (isolation #316) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:53 am

Post by Shoshin »

Just hammer Irrel already so we can see the flip. I want to move on to lynching scum.
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Post Post #2192 (isolation #317) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:48 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why the fuck isn't Irrel hammered already? I'd like to move on to the lynching scum phase.
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Post Post #2194 (isolation #318) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

We're lynching Vedith tomorrow if he doesn't hammer Irrel in the next five minutes.
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Post Post #2197 (isolation #319) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:55 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel, if somehow I end up dead, lynch Vedith tomorrow, Fusco after him.
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Post Post #2204 (isolation #320) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

Volx has been more active here than elsewhere on site.

You okay with me pushing through Vedith's lynch, Irrel? Or should I go with Fusco first?
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Post Post #2206 (isolation #321) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:33 am

Post by Shoshin »

We are never lynching SR.

The whole reason scum want me dead is so that they can eliminate him.
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Post Post #2213 (isolation #322) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:36 am

Post by Shoshin »

Vedith's scum, Irrel.
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Post Post #2214 (isolation #323) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:37 am

Post by Shoshin »

Volx, will you be sheeping me to the win? This is a game where I need sheeps.
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Post Post #2219 (isolation #324) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:39 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm glad he isn't at the moment.
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Post Post #2221 (isolation #325) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:40 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel, I need you not to start increasing paranoia about me. WTF?
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Post Post #2222 (isolation #326) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:42 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel, please make a final plea to the townies in this game to sheep me. I need this town working together and stoking paranoia is going to lose this for us.
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Post Post #2226 (isolation #327) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:44 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why is SR scum, Vedith?
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Post Post #2230 (isolation #328) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel, please address the above.
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Post Post #2237 (isolation #329) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Vedith

Fusco tomorrow after nomination (unless he's nominated in which case we lynch him).
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Post Post #2242 (isolation #330) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:56 pm

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2241, Fuscosco wrote:we can make a case for auro/shos
Was this intended for the scum PT?

Fun stuff.
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Post Post #2244 (isolation #331) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:57 pm

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Fusco
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Post Post #2247 (isolation #332) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:58 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Who are they?
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Post Post #2259 (isolation #333) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:25 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel died so that you all sheep my reads. Please vote Fusco. Let's not drag this out.
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Post Post #2263 (isolation #334) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:35 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Vedith is next.
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Post Post #2267 (isolation #335) » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:04 pm

Post by Shoshin »

Auro, where's your vote on Fusco?
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Post Post #2280 (isolation #336) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why not Vedith?
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Post Post #2287 (isolation #337) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why more confident on Chenn?
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Post Post #2292 (isolation #338) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

These nominations look like something Vedith would come up with.
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Post Post #2294 (isolation #339) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

Maybe Alonzo is scum.

If so, fuck RC.
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Post Post #2295 (isolation #340) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:30 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why are you voting me, Alonzo?
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Post Post #2296 (isolation #341) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:30 am

Post by Shoshin »

How am I scummier than Vedith/Chenn?
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Post Post #2301 (isolation #342) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:40 am

Post by Shoshin »

Alonzo, your slot led the first mislynch.

I led the second.

Being wrong isn't scummy.

What the fuck?
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Post Post #2302 (isolation #343) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:41 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2298, Alonzo wrote:Also feeling like day one the plan may have been to needle RC at shoshins command
What?
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Post Post #2303 (isolation #344) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:45 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2171, Irrelephant11 wrote:Don’t lynch Shoshin before lylo
Fuck anyone who doesn't listen to the guy who literally sacrificed himself to keep me alive.
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Post Post #2304 (isolation #345) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:45 am

Post by Shoshin »

Not to mention, the person who knows my play the best in this game.
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Post Post #2305 (isolation #346) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:46 am

Post by Shoshin »

Can someone please talk to me?

This game has felt unbelievably dead.

None of my townreads are even trying anymore.
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Post Post #2306 (isolation #347) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

Vedith, please explain in greater detail why you're scumreading SR.
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Post Post #2309 (isolation #348) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:51 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2307, Alonzo wrote:I think once RC had settled into 'wanting GW' it was you that made the posts to effect the masses into joining.
What the fuck? Why are you making stuff up?
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Post Post #2311 (isolation #349) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:53 am

Post by Shoshin »

Do you think Vedith is town, Auro?
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Post Post #2314 (isolation #350) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:56 am

Post by Shoshin »

Is Alonzo still town?
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Post Post #2315 (isolation #351) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

I hate this game.
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Post Post #2317 (isolation #352) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:59 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2293, Alonzo wrote:VOTE: shoshin

I know... I'm bad blah blah
Why is he calling himself bad?

It's like he knows I'm town.

Why is this happening?
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Post Post #2320 (isolation #353) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:00 am

Post by Shoshin »

I've lost motivation to play mafia in general.
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Post Post #2321 (isolation #354) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

I need someone I can talk about the game with.
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Post Post #2322 (isolation #355) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:01 am

Post by Shoshin »

Let's go through all the players, Auro. We need to figure this out.
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Post Post #2325 (isolation #356) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'm worried you're scum, Auro.
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Post Post #2327 (isolation #357) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

What's the difference between your play here and your play as scum?
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Post Post #2328 (isolation #358) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

Can you identify any town tells?
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Post Post #2329 (isolation #359) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:10 am

Post by Shoshin »

I feel unmoored.

I usually have townreads that I can count on.

And now I don't trust anything.
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Post Post #2332 (isolation #360) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:14 am

Post by Shoshin »

Nobody seems to care except me.
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Post Post #2333 (isolation #361) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:15 am

Post by Shoshin »

You don't feel different when you play as scum? That sounds like a lie.
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Post Post #2337 (isolation #362) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:16 am

Post by Shoshin »

Help me understand your thinking on the game, then. It feels like you're just sheeping. You sheeped RC on Wazoo. You sheeped me on Fusco. Where's your own thought process?
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Post Post #2339 (isolation #363) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:18 am

Post by Shoshin »

Please convince Alonzo that I'm town. You saw first-hand my scum game so you know this isn't it. Volx knows as well.
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Post Post #2342 (isolation #364) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:23 am

Post by Shoshin »

Are you town, Alonzo? If so, why are you scumreading me for scumreading a slot that RC scumread? What's scummy about this?
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Post Post #2344 (isolation #365) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:24 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 1369, Auro wrote:Wazoo, you seem rather focused on RC/Shoshin; I've also agreed with the scumread on you and am sheeping RC on to you, what's your read on me?
Auro, you called yourself a sheep.
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Post Post #2345 (isolation #366) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:26 am

Post by Shoshin »

Alonzo, have you read the entire game in context or have you just read the iso?
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Post Post #2348 (isolation #367) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:28 am

Post by Shoshin »

Auro, you need to convince this fool that I'm town or I can't play this game.
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Post Post #2351 (isolation #368) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:35 am

Post by Shoshin »

I can answer that for you. DT.
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Post Post #2362 (isolation #369) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:24 am

Post by Shoshin »

Irrel was a townread, Vedith.

Why are you ignoring the nature of nominations, Vedith?

Again, please explain your scumread on SR.
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Post Post #2366 (isolation #370) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:31 am

Post by Shoshin »

How do you know SR is scum?
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Post Post #2372 (isolation #371) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:47 am

Post by Shoshin »

VOTE: Vedith

Auro, please don't help Vedith out in explaining his thoughts.
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Post Post #2374 (isolation #372) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:49 am

Post by Shoshin »

It's possible that SR's scum but I'm not going to get there is nobody gives strong reasons for the read. "Coasting" isn't sufficient when that's half the game.
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Post Post #2376 (isolation #373) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:50 am

Post by Shoshin »

Auro/Volx/SR/Chenn will vote you, Vedith. So actually, you have no leg to stand on.
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Post Post #2380 (isolation #374) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:54 am

Post by Shoshin »

I don't see any town tells from you, Vedith. Please point them out.
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Post Post #2382 (isolation #375) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:55 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2379, DoubtingThomas wrote:
In post 2377, Auro wrote:
In post 2373, DoubtingThomas wrote:Nonetheless shoshin is always the lynch today in all but one in 193948392002 possible situations i saw in the future
You're ignoring very strong evidence that scum!Shoshin never nominates herself given
Shoshin's
current state of mind generally; her lack of motivation isn't a lie. She just lost one scumgame, and for the rest part I can't talk about (you should figure out what to do).
Why wouldnt she?

Old friend of mine once said when you ask yourself “why would scum do that?” Then thats the exact reason why they would do it

Its all wifom
This is how scum think.

Auro's talking about what's probable.

You're talking about what's possible.

Scum lead mislynches by arguing that town could be scum.

Town find scum by analyzing what's probable.

Why are you doing the former?
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Post Post #2385 (isolation #376) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:57 am

Post by Shoshin »

I'll put this another way.

The question, "why would scum do X," isn't the right question. The question you need to ask is, "what's the probability that scum do X." The probability that I self-nominate yesterday is 0%. The probability that I self-nominate today is similarly 0%.

Either way, it's clear that I'm town on that alone.

I'm also town because the way I'm playing never comes from scum me. It just doesn't.

That town case I made earlier never comes from scum me.
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Post Post #2388 (isolation #377) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:58 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2383, Vedith wrote:
In post 2380, Shoshin wrote:I don't see any town tells from you, Vedith. Please point them out.
I don't need to point you to town tells.
Where are yours with the last 2 lynches?
Where is yours saying that Scum reading is town when this is his Scum game?
I made a fucking town case with all my town tells this game.

Leading a mislynch just means I was wrong about something. I don't pretend to have 100% accuracy. Nobody has that.
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Post Post #2393 (isolation #378) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:59 am

Post by Shoshin »

This game is fucked anyway.

Alonzo's scum who will win or he's town who will lose us the game.
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Post Post #2397 (isolation #379) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:02 am

Post by Shoshin »

Lynch Vedith.

If he's town, lynch SR tomorrow.
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Post Post #2400 (isolation #380) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:03 am

Post by Shoshin »

Town Vedith doesn't keep making this argument that I mislynched Irrel when I townread the guy.
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Post Post #2404 (isolation #381) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:04 am

Post by Shoshin »

Hey DT, this is your one chance to convince me you're town: Please explain why you're scumreading me in terms of probability, not possibility. I'd like you to address the fact that you believe I'm a terrible townie and address why you think I'm scum rather than bad town in this game.
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Post Post #2406 (isolation #382) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2403, Auro wrote:
In post 2397, Shoshin wrote:Lynch Vedith.

If he's town, lynch SR tomorrow.
Weren't you locktown on SR? What suddenly changed?
If Vedith flips town, it means I was wrong about something.
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Post Post #2407 (isolation #383) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:05 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2405, Vedith wrote:
In post 2400, Shoshin wrote:Town Vedith doesn't keep making this argument that I mislynched Irrel when I townread the guy.
Yes i do. Of course I do. I do it as Scum too difference is I vote and push you over Chen here.
You want to lynch Chen over me?
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Post Post #2412 (isolation #384) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:08 am

Post by Shoshin »

Let's assume I'm scum.

No matter who my partners are, the path to winning is nominating three townies for today & then lynching between Vedith/DT/Chen tomorrow.

Why?

Because if I'm scum, it means at least one of Vedith/DT/Chen is town.

And if one of that group is town, it means scum me is able to mislynch at some point on a non-nominating phase.
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Post Post #2439 (isolation #385) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:26 am

Post by Shoshin »

Fuck it, I'm done with this game.

I'll stick around to sheep Auro since he's the only person making sense.
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Post Post #2441 (isolation #386) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:26 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2437, Auro wrote:
In post 2413, Auro wrote:
In post 2406, Shoshin wrote:
In post 2403, Auro wrote:
In post 2397, Shoshin wrote:Lynch Vedith.

If he's town, lynch SR tomorrow.
Weren't you locktown on SR? What suddenly changed?
If Vedith flips town, it means I was wrong about something.
Wait, this is pinging me - not only were you locktown on SR, I was preceding SR in your lynch order - AND you got paranoid about me, so how does this chain of lynches hold?
Shoshin I really need you to answer this
Oh, nevermind. Even Auro's being irrationally paranoid.
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Post Post #2448 (isolation #387) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:29 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2444, scum reading wrote:
In post 2439, Shoshin wrote:Fuck it, I'm done with this game.

I'll stick around to sheep Auro since he's the only person making sense.
You have just changed one of your strongest town reads to a scum read like it's nothing. Do you believe you're making sense?

Of course I get paranoid of your alignment if you are willing to throw me as bait like that. It seemed like you just wanted to do anything to survive.
What the fuck are you talking about?
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Post Post #2469 (isolation #388) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:42 am

Post by Shoshin »

I guess I'll get into the logic of how this game breaks down:

1. If I were scum, I would never nominate myself with Vedith/Chen unless all of DT/Chen/Vedith were town. This is because scum me aligned with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith easily wins the game by nominating three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. We mislynch during nomination, and then we mislynch the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. I follow this strategy as scum because it safely wins me the game by following my poe to its logical conclusion. Thus, to believe that I'm scum, you have to believe that all of DT/Chen/Vedith are town.

2. If SR is scum with one or two of DT/Chen/Vedith, he never nominates anyone in the group of DT/Chen/Vedith. This is because scum SR easily wins by nominating three townies outside of himself or DT/Chen/Vedith. He mislynches during nomination, and then he mislynches the townie in DT/Chen/Vedith. Scum SR follows this strategy because it simply follows my poe to its logical conclusion.

3. If the scum includes two of DT/Chen/Vedith, they almost always nominate three townies outside of DT/Chen/Vedith. Again, this allows scum to follow my poe to its logical conclusion, winning them the game. Thus, the unique situation we find ourselves is unlikely to arise in a situation where two of DT/Chen/Vedith are scum.

4. If the mafia is precisely DT/Chen/Vedith, they lose if they nominate three townies outside of themselves. Thus, their optimal strategy is to shake things up. How do you shake things up? You nominate yourselves in some sort of combination. This reading is consistent with the current nominations.

5. Everything else is WIFOM. If you say scum are trying to outplay by acting differently than the above, you're saying that scum chose the harder path to victory for no reason other than style points. It's absurd to suggest that scum do things solely because of WIFOM. Scum do things to win the game, period. WIFOM is occasionally useful in that pursuit, but at the end of the day, scum are most likely to do what wins them the game. So don't give me a bunch of WIFOM excuses to argue my analysis is incorrect. I'm talking about what's by far the most probable outcomes.
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Post Post #2471 (isolation #389) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:43 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2451, scum reading wrote:
What the fuck are you talking about?
This
In post 2397, Shoshin wrote:Lynch Vedith.

If he's town, lynch SR tomorrow.
Why are you assuming that Vedith is town, SR? What the fuck?
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Post Post #2472 (isolation #390) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:43 am

Post by Shoshin »

This game is not fun. I hate this game.
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Post Post #2473 (isolation #391) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:43 am

Post by Shoshin »

In post 2472, Shoshin wrote:This game is not fun. I hate this game.
And no, it's not because I'm scum.
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Post Post #2477 (isolation #392) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:48 am

Post by Shoshin »

What the fuck are you talking about, SR?
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Post Post #2478 (isolation #393) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:48 am

Post by Shoshin »

I didn't say anything about Vedith flipping town.
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Post Post #2479 (isolation #394) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:48 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why the fuck is SR talking about Vedith flipping town.
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Post Post #2480 (isolation #395) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:48 am

Post by Shoshin »

It's like SR's intentionally dropping scum tells or something.
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Post Post #2484 (isolation #396) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:51 am

Post by Shoshin »

Why is DT town, Vedith?
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Post Post #2486 (isolation #397) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:51 am

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In post 2483, scum reading wrote:??? Does my post baffle you or what? I don't get it
You're saying Vedith is town when he hasn't flipped yet???
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Post Post #2488 (isolation #398) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:52 am

Post by Shoshin »

My logic:

"If Vedith flips town, it means DT/Chen/Vedith can't all be scum. Vedith scumreads SR. I trust town Vedith. Thus, final scum is probably SR."

SR's reading of my logic:

"Shoshin scumreads me because she's informed about the fact that Vedith will flip town."

What the fuck?
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Post Post #2489 (isolation #399) » Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:53 am

Post by Shoshin »

I never said Vedith was flipping town yet SR's acting like it's already happened.
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