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Farkran · Mon Feb 10, 2020 6:45 am

In post 1447, Amrun wrote:
In post 1442, Farkran wrote:Oh wait, i think i misread. "If farkran becomes viable" as opposed to a spare resolution, not to a bingle lynch. Nevermind.
Yes, I still strongly prefer to lynch Bingle.

@Bingle: I’m really fine with mountainous so it’s whatever. One spare doesn’t bother me at all since it was confirmed town. I just don’t care about that very much.

Is there none in {hectic, chara, psyche, nacho} you would be interested in pursuing today? I guess not, since they are your highest townreads...

Let's talk more about bingle then. I know where you are going to look if bingle flips scum - what will you do if he flips town?

Farkran · Mon Feb 10, 2020 8:41 am

In post 1451, Hectic wrote:
In post 1440, Farkran wrote:No, i'm not pushing them BECAUSE they are highly townread, and i'm not pushing Replica anymore. I'm pushing Hectic/Chara/Psyche AND now to a lesser extent Nacho because of their interactions with each other. Hectic's progression on Chara does not make sense, and vice versa. I wonder how you could say that scum!me originally planned to make myself a spare target today when i fighted with my heart and soul against any spare route from the moment i replaced in in d1. I do not care about being spared, unless i am the last one in a 4 spared route. I have said multiple times that i'd rather be lynched.
hi...
that's what you'll claim...
but to me it looks like you've entered this day with purpose casting paranoia at the most likely SPARE targets...

So... you started by accusing me of wanting to be spared, now that i entered d2 shading all the highest townread people. But to what purpose? Why scum!me would have trouble with town!hectic spare today? I would just kill the rest of the spare lineup until either me or my partner are included. In a 4 spared route, it's likely it will happen. In a 3 spared route, you do not know if you spared scum or not, because the two people will be removed unflipped, so... say i get removed, who and where do you lynch then? Spared/nonspared? Who? You will only have a couple lynches to work with, the last one in a mylo with a compulsive resolution (cannot no-lynch).

In post 1451, Hectic wrote: i still don't get why you don't understand my interactions with Chara...
i liked them early then slightly disliked them for the timing of their unvote...
then liked them again for their flurry of posts close to EoD, where i liked a lot of their opinions, and also them trying to push a SPARE on me like that has little scum motivation from my PoV...
especially after Suji and Sherlock were Sherlock townreads after the PT reveal...

...why would this be a reason for town!hectic to townread Chara? Of course scum would rather spare non-conftown over suji. They will need either someone to take the guilt when you get to new home and the game isn't over, or even better, change their mind at the last minute about town!hectic spare. Does this ring any bell? Your townread of Chara does not make sense, there are other slots that you should townread more than it, and your explanation does not help. Once again it seems that you are adjusting your reads to your convenience, why do you like only slots that townread you, and change your read when they stop townreading you? Why is Chara the only one worthy of a spare to you? Why not Replica, before this post? What's to like in the recent Replica that wasn't there before this post? Do you think that everyone who agrees with you is town, and those who don't are scum?

This is a flurry of mostly rhethorical questions, but ultimately they boil down to: who is scum? Why do you trust yourself, and people who are confident in a spare resolution if none of them want to talk about where is scum and what are they doing?

I would expect you of all people would be aware of this situation, given the recent town failure in the jester nightless game we played together.

In post 1451, Hectic wrote: for example Psyche has mentioned how i'm a good SPARE and that he should probably towncase me but not done much in actually trying to convince people...
same goes with Chemist, i think...
not saying that means they're scum, but it means they're a lot more likely to be scum who don't have actual conviction in pushing another SPARE through on a townie...

Would you push a 2 scum solve in {farkran, chemist, psyche}? Do you feel confident enough on this to go for a 4 spared route even when you reach 2v3 in day 4? Why?

Farkran · Mon Feb 10, 2020 9:22 am

In post 1454, Hectic wrote:
In post 1436, Hectic wrote:I'm not sure if scum!him originally planned to make himself a potential SPARE target today through these arguments though, I think his primary objective would be to derail the SPARE train.
i actually said the opposite...
i said your objective probably wasn't to make yourself a SPARE target...
it was to derail the train...

Uhm... i actually misinterpreted that. I thought that by saying "i'm not sure if [...]" you meant to say it was a possibility that i wanted to be spared. By the way... yes, i do want to derail the spare train. But my purpose is not to deflect it onto another target, i just think sparing is wrong and we shouldn't do that. I would be much more comfortable talking about who to lynch, and why. I am significantly more... tolerant of slots who are willing to at least consider the fight option and talk about it, providing reasons for confidence about their scumreads, than those who just push for a spare route without even trying to think at what scum would do in this game. This alone wouldn't prove them town, but it takes effort to build fake towncases AND fake scumcases. It takes time, brain, checking back into your ISO for consistency, making sure that you have readily available excuses for when all your reads turn out to be wrong. If you force them to put up their maximum effort on a game, a lot of scum players might just either give up or slip. This isn't true for me, maybe for Amrun, but it is true for a lot of people and it is how i caught some. Such strategy also works for producing correct townreads - emotional responses are some of the most reliable towntells and that's why i now townread Replica even if i hate all his posting. Don't ask me why i'm not sparing Replica

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:20 am

3.5 days to deadline.

Current wagon situation is still bad, but has improved since my last call to arms. This game NEEDS a flip to progress.

I need to make peace with the fact that no one is willing to lynch Hectic today. I completely disagree that any towncase about hectic made any sense so far. Nacho's meta towncase was definitely the worst, pushing the differences between hectic's first game on site and this one. Chara not being even slightly worried about Hectic himself, or Nacho wking him with a reasoning so weak, really make no sense to me, but Chara seems to be townreaded almost more than Hectic.

Out of the lynchable slots that i think could become viable today, i can only identify Nacho, Chemist, Farkran and Bingle.

I think that, if Chemist is scum, it has to be with me or Psyche. I see how you could buy a Chemist/Farkran team, but imagine a town!Farkran world for now - you will draw your conclusions later. I think it's possible that scum!Chemist would place a spare vote on me, hoping that the day would end differently. I can only see him partner with Psyche though, and i have little reason to scumread him.

I did townlean Almidia, but the recent Bingle has made me reconsider that significantly. Bingle's progression that made him go from "i sheep farkran: vote hectic" to "i sheep nacho: heal hectic" to "i am 100% determined i will not lynch today: heal farkran" to "i want to unheal farkran but i'm VLA until the deadline is over and i'm not going to change my vote first"... is bad. Really, really bad. It's like forcing a fake associative on me, because Amrun said he would lynch me if bingle flipped red. Psyche and Replica healing there is also very meh. Especially psyche, who didn't even include Almidia in his fotm sparelist that would lead us to a "so easy victory i don't know how you all can't see it" back in d1. I can buy a Bingle/Psyche team.

I already talked about Nacho and a possibility of a Nacho/Hectic team. I fancy this less than Hectic/Chara, that's mostly because the interactions between the latter two are doublesided whereas Hectic/Nacho is onesided from nacho. Makes sense though, that Hectic wouldn't want to associate with a suspicious read, and that Nacho would scumread town!Chara if we are in this world.

Out of these 3, i'd get Bingle or Nacho. I probably trust Amrun as a combination of "towniness + ability to read" than Chemist, although Chemist is maybe slightly townier than Amrun. In a world where i am wrong about all my main scumreads, that's likely whom i'd turn to.

HURT: Bingle i'm going to try this. If there is any interest in Psyche, i would rather lynch psyche over navho and bingle.

I still think that a lot of this game has been tainted by faulty setup interpretation, suboptimal plays, but most likely also a significant level of pocketing from the scumteam, which i respect. This game needs a flip to progress. Sparing today is a town loss.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:03 am

...could hectic be town in a 2x{psyche, chemist, bingle} world?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:05 am

No wait, psyche just voted to spare me (huh?) And chemist didn't remove his vote...

Who's bingle partner?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:43 am

In post 1500, Hectic wrote:
In post 1498, Farkran wrote:...could hectic be town in a 2x{psyche, chemist, bingle} world?

Just a theory. What's your scumcase on me again? I know i've been asking more than once but i'd like to be updated on your thoughts.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:58 am

In post 1501, Chara wrote:Farkran: why can scum never spare vote you? also, who exactly are you townreading now? i am currently rereading your posting and it's probably in there, but if you could restate any townreads that would help me understand your partner solves. do you still think me/Hectic is likely?

Psyche: not comfortable sparing Farkran right now.

Amrun: is Bingle's posting still mostly NAI to you? i've come around to the fact he's at least reading minimally enough to say something.

I wouldn't call myself a widely townread slot and i have stated multiple times i won't be hammering my own spare. If scum wants to get towncred, they would be pushing Hectic, or maybe Chara.

World 1. My reads are so unbelievably wrong that scum is not afraid of me: they wouldn't spare me, they'll let me around to help them.

World 2. My reads are correct and they don't want to nk me because that would frame them - removing me by spare would open the doors for their own future spare. Obviously i'm talking about Hectic and Chara, none of which are sparing me - why wouldn't they, if this is the world we live in?

It doesn't really make sense for scum!psyche to give momentum to my spare wagon in this gamestate, unless he is really trusting nacho not to compromise on me, and farkran not to selfhammer. Ballsy move. Would make sense in a Nacho/Psyche team and nothing else.

Bingle and Chemist were already sparing me, so this reasoning is... less valid for them, because it could have been vanity. Especially bingle, who had already expressed his will to unvote, despite going VLA before executing - i really don't like that half-shading/half-associative attempt on me.

Pedit: i love how replica predicates that i am desperate, while also pushing a spare on a slot he isn't even townreading any more. Talk about being desperate to avoid a flip. Am i wrong on replica and the team is exactly Bingle/Replica? Oh my god.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:05 am

In post 1505, Hectic wrote:
In post 1503, Hectic wrote:Anything changed with regards to your Nacho/Farkran reads since then, Chemist?

In post 1488, Farkran wrote:I did townlean Almidia, but the recent Bingle has made me reconsider that significantly. Bingle's progression that made him go from "i sheep farkran: vote hectic" to "i sheep nacho: heal hectic" to "i am 100% determined i will not lynch today: heal farkran" to "i want to unheal farkran but i'm VLA until the deadline is over and i'm not going to change my vote first"... is bad. Really, really bad. It's like forcing a fake associative on me, because Amrun said he would lynch me if bingle flipped red. Psyche and Replica healing there is also very meh. Especially psyche, who didn't even include Almidia in his fotm sparelist that would lead us to a "so easy victory i don't know how you all can't see it" back in d1. I can buy a Bingle/Psyche team.
He's probably reading too much into the "unvoting heal tag is hard on mobile" thing, but despite our
differences
, I do agree with the rest of the sentiment in this post.

Well... the point isn't really in the mobile tag, but going VLA exactly until the deadline is over, without updating your vote?

While you entered d2 hurting hectic, then sheeping nacho and HEALING hectic, then claiming you would only spare?

I mean i have seen Bingle play games with tons of more effort than this, even when he wasn't interested in the game itself. Remember our cult game modded by kerset? He said he didn't even want to join there, but he prepared an immensely convoluted reaction test to shos that required actual effort to perform, despite it resulting incorrect in the end

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:07 am

In post 1512, Chara wrote:how is it both true that you're not being townread enough for scum to spare you for towncred (first paragraph), but you're townread enough that it's a
ballsy move for scum to spare you because it might actually go through
? (paragraph 4)

Read again: it's only apparently a ballsy move, because i only allowed it in a Psyche/Nacho solve. Nacho is the only other slot that claimed a townread on me, so scum!psyche would be 100% sure nacho wouldn't join therefore i could never be spared.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:11 am

In post 1514, Replica wrote:
In post 1511, Farkran wrote:Pedit: i love how replica predicates that i am desperate, while also pushing a spare on a slot he isn't even townreading any more. Talk about being desperate to avoid a flip. Am i wrong on replica and the team is exactly Bingle/Replica? Oh my god.
? I don't remember calling you desperate.

This behavior is...exactly what you literally anyone, such as a Farkran who really believes I am town, would have expected. Farkran has seen that Bingle is my strong townread. Farkran knows I am adamantly against lynching and pro-sparing. Seeing that I call pushes to lynch Bingle+spare Farkran the "brink of disaster" should be the most expected thing in the world for town Farkran.

Instead...it's a chance to be performative and peddle more garbage.

Yeah. Or scum!Replica in team with bingle. Why not? Why is lynching bingle "the brink of disaster", exactly?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:14 am

Like, replica, why are you SO opposed to a bingle flip as to spare a slot that you don't even like anymore? Because 1508 comes before 1509, you know.

Could you summarize your towncase of bingle again, and tell me how a bingle flip is "the brink of disaster" even assuming he flips green in your opinion?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:16 am

In post 1520, Replica wrote:
In post 1517, Farkran wrote:Yeah. Or scum!Replica in team with bingle. Why not? Why is lynching bingle "the brink of disaster", exactly?
"Why is lynching your top TR when you're vehemently anti-lynching the brink of disaster?"

Supposedly, this dude has thought I was hardtown the last, like, 30 pages.

Weren't you the one promoting for a 3spare/1lynch game resolution? Set aside that bingle is your top townread, why are you insisting that much that a bingle flip would spell your loss?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:23 am

In post 1521, Chara wrote:
In post 1515, Farkran wrote:
In post 1512, Chara wrote:how is it both true that you're not being townread enough for scum to spare you for towncred (first paragraph), but you're townread enough that it's a
ballsy move for scum to spare you because it might actually go through
? (paragraph 4)
Read again: it's only apparently a ballsy move, because i only allowed it in a Psyche/Nacho solve. Nacho is the only other slot that claimed a townread on me, so scum!psyche would be 100% sure nacho wouldn't join therefore i could never be spared.
i'm not sure how likely it is that scum would think this way to begin with... and i'd be lying if i said i really understood it. this approach to categorizing teams is so alien to me.
it sounds like you don't think Hectic and i are scum anymore?

I'm testing theories. I actually don't think psyche is scum at this exact moment in time. Bingle and chemist could be vanity, psyche gave me momentum. Unless he is scum exactly with nacho, he's town. Very likely.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:25 am

In post 1524, Chara wrote:what does 3 spare/1 lynch have to do with it? the one lynch needs to be scum for it to work.

Being confident in getting EXACTLY 3 town and 1 scum lynch is ... literally even worse than being confident in getting 4 town. I mean not even i, in my worst moments, have ego that overwhelmingly grand. If that was the assumption that made him push that exact route, i'm not buying it. Ever.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:26 am

Ebwop: 3 town SPARES, 1 scum lynch, i mean

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:32 am

In post 1527, Replica wrote:Re: Bingle TR

I don't think I need to justify why lynching my top TR is a "disaster" and the fact that you're acting as though it were a scumslip for a me/Bingle team and would immediately lead to my scumloss, speaks for itself. Literally anyone who townreads me should not at all be surprised by that reaction. People don't have to townread me, but acting like THAT of all things is out of alignment with how I've been all game long is a hoot.

So, right now you have enough confidence in yourself that:

- i am the worst player that ever existed, both as town because i have terrible reads, and as scum because you caught me immediately
- amrun has shit-level reads
- psyche is the worst town player that ever existed for giving momentum to my spare wagon
- bingle is so town that his flip will glow like pristine elucidated emeralds

So much that you are willing to:
- spare a slot you don't like over Chara or Bingle himself
- concede your strategy, that you promoted with such vehemency ever since you joined, by lynching a slot in d2

To prevent a bingle flip.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:40 am

@chara: I'm not even voting replica right now. I'm just really perplexed as to why replica would go to such distances to prevent a bingle flip, instead actively strenghtening his scumcase against me - by superficially quoting how i was townreading him until moments ago - except that i didn't even say i am scumreading him right now, i just asked for his thoughts. I explicitly said i am testing theories. What generated such an aggressive reaction?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:43 am

In post 1535, Chara wrote:
In post 1529, Farkran wrote:
In post 1524, Chara wrote:what does 3 spare/1 lynch have to do with it? the one lynch needs to be scum for it to work.
Being confident in getting EXACTLY 3 town and 1 scum lynch is ... literally even worse than being confident in getting 4 town. I mean not even i, in my worst moments, have ego that overwhelmingly grand. If that was the assumption that made him push that exact route, i'm not buying it. Ever.
okay, but... back to the actual point being made here, which was Replica not wanting to mislynch a TR, where's the problem? what's the contradiction?

replica wants 4 spares: doesn't want to ruin it with a TR getting mislynched.
replica wants 3 spares and a scum lynch: still doesn't want Bingle lynched.

I mean, he wants 4 spares, yet he casts a hurt vote on me when he has never done that until now?

What gives him enough confidence in town!bingle AND scum!farkran to do that?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 8:53 am

To reiterate: i have an hard time buying that Replica was REALLY confident he could get a full town 4-spared strategy. You must assume you could spare one scum, and have a backup plan if that happens. Yet, he's now pushing for a lynch to prevent a spare on a scumread. In order to prevent a flip on a townread. Where does this level of confidence come from?

Pedit @replica: you're not going to win me via ate again. You aren't even communicating, you're just insulting.

Pedit2 @replica again: ok. Still doesn't explain where you are getting your confidence. Flipping bingle is not "the brink of disaster". You're being assertively manipulative for no reason. I am going to a desktop to reread your towncase or bingle now

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:06 am

In post 1545, Hectic wrote:
In post 1528, Hectic wrote:
In post 1507, Farkran wrote:Just a theory. What's your scumcase on me again? I know i've been asking more than once but i'd like to be updated on your thoughts.

Mostly based on the arguments you were using to push Hectic/Chara/Replica start of day. I can get why you thought my SPARE>FIGHT>SPARE on Chara could look weird, since it kinda reeks of scum SPARING someone while they townread them, and FIGHTING someone when they scumread them, and flipping again, but other than that, a lot of your arguments have flaws which have already been pointed out by Chara/Replica/Nacho, and I'm more inclined to believe you're scum who's derailing a town SPARE train that rarely concedes any points/sees reason, rather than extremely an stubborn townie that is constantly wrong (sorry if this is a little harsh but most of your arguments do revolve around scum!me), and using flawed arguments.
Where are my arguments flawed? You and Chara had terrible interactions, you acknowledged it, and that's the entire basis of my scumcase of both. I have no reasons to concede that, although i am willing to explore different theories that would explain the current gamestate. I have been denied talking about scumreads for a long time, since everything you (generally referring to everyone) wanted to talk about was sparing. I don't think my position is extreme.

In post 1545, Hectic wrote: Also, the Suji IC thing from yesterday, and I think your stance on SPARE/FIGHT is a little too extreme. I mean, you played in that townhunting game, and town managed to lynch 6 town in a row (lynching town was the aim), I don't see why you're SO averse to it. And yes, I know, that game had flips, but this game has a WIN upon 4 successful SPARES.

Er... because town lost that townhunting game? Did you realize why town lost? Neither of my two partners voted for my lynch there, yet i achieved it (note to the others: game was a jester nightless, win condition requires to die, so my lynch means i was being largely townread). As i said several posts ago, you of all people should know that rolling scum doesn't imply being bad at the game. Good scum also exist. Me scumreading you is a sign of respect that you deserve, for how you have played your recent games with me + the now finished Open TM where i was cooperating with NaCl to trick you. Amrun was in that game too.

WRT Replica: i read the "insulting post" on a pedit and i didn't notice it was sarcastic. I take back my accusation. By the way, none of those was a loaded question: all of them are specifically worded that way to show you to what extent you're sticking your arm out to prevent a Bingle flip. It was you who called it the brink of disaster, not me. And i'd like to know why. (haven't read the towncase yet, i was answering to hectic)

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 9:07 am

I messed up the bbcode but it should be understandable

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:33 am

In post 1187, Replica wrote:I really disagree with Amrun's Alimdia read-they were a townlean for me and going back through the ISO this seems true to me.

Comparing Alimdia's posting here to a recently completed scumgame makes me feel better about the slot, too. There's a lot of throwing out loose speculation and accusations with a lot less emphasis on Alimdia not understanding points or trying to get to the bottom of them.

Posts like Alim's #129, #202, and #211 show a lot more genuine confusion and interest in understanding someone's thinking imo.

I feel a lot better about the slot now. I think Bingle generally isn't framing the argument correctly with the nature of Amrun's read. It might be in reaction to Amrun's #1161 uses hyperbole that can imply it should NEVER be townread, rather than focusing on it not being a great universal tell/it being specific to the player.

I'm solidly off board with either of their approaches.

In post 1319, Replica wrote:Manna has fallen from heaven and the 'Cho has returned. Hype!

I'd really encourage you to look into alimdia meta. Bingle's posting, despite having a really bad understanding of the Amrun argument, hasn't been bad but alimdia's posting is heavily underrated imo and I don't get Psyche's scumread there. This is very likely a townslot imo.

I've got to keep it short tonight, and could probably let the posts stew, but I would say real fast that the "single thing" hangup isn't really applicable to you. I was using the Chemist read as a starting point, and starting somewhere and waiting for more is fine. If anything it applies to Farkran...but I kinda doubt it.

You townread the timing of Farkran's shove on me but the chronology really suggests you shouldn't. #500 followed by #605 represented a change towards me being more skeptical of him. He picked up on this in #616 and asked why he moved from townlean to null but potential scum. I explain that I think he'd be this forceful as mafia and I don't trust tonereading him, instead trusting more his votes and patterns He asks for my perceptions of my own play after I offer them, and 12 hours later comes back with a comprehensive attack based on the gap between my ideals/fears and my actual play. I'll skip how his point changed over time from those personality exploitations to "well spare is bad idk why you go for that over flips" for now since I've been over it enough.

It smacked completely of someone who feared a war coming and decided it would be advantageous to be the one to launch the first volley.

In post 1387, Replica wrote:I looked at Guns n Roses alimdia, stronger/more assertive play but I still didn't see the same level of investigation they do in this one. Scum alimdia really likes to unleash the accusations/scumcase all at once rather than laying out a more nuanced process over time. Granted, I only skimmed like half the game and need to double check, but I like the slot and think it's really underrated this game.

About this towncase of the Bingle slot.

Most of the case is based on Almidia's meta and posting, which i also townreaded at the time, so i largely agree with that. Bingle is occupying the same slot, but is behaving very differently, and not in a good way. His resistance to engage with the gamestate, and his progression about slots and which strategy to use is not pristine either. I don't see how Replica could be "feeling better" about the slot when he entered d2 sheeping me with a hurt vote on hectic (sheeping Replica's highest scumread, no less), or at least not to the extent Replica is townreading him right now, i.e. describing his lynch as "the brink of disaster". The problem is not the townread itself, it's the level of confidence displayed.

However, this would be indicative of a Replica/Bingle scumteam specifically, not individually scummy for either of them. Or, maybe, a Replica/Hectic scumteam with the former justifying his backpedal on sparing Hectic because the day seemed to be resolving differently, but i'm kinda past that and i wish to leave it in the past as long as we can get a flip today.

What's individually scummy about the Almidia/Bingle slot is almost entirely Bingle. Replica, have you meta'ed Bingle (or Jingle)? Why do you find that much unreasonable that scum!Almidia was engaged enough with the game to produce good content, while scum!Bingle doesn't want to? Why is town!Replica so confident in town!Bingle that you can't even imagine a Bingle/Farkran solve, same as Amrun does? Can you explain town!Bingle sheeping scum!Farkran, or even town!Farkran for that matter, just to 180° both his Hectic read and his solve strategy, with Almidia meta alone?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:41 am

In post 1556, Hectic wrote:
it's progression which
could
be perceived as scum-indicative, but there's many other scenarios where that progression DOES make sense from a town PoV, if you look at the events surrounding them, which you are failing to consider. Regarding the flaws in your arguments, it was stuff like the list of events in timeline that you presented, and where Chara refuted your points and Amrun thanked for having the patience to, I'm too lazy to go back and find the posts.

Very interesting that you were coaching NaCl into manipulating me. Good job on that, it worked till later on.

NaCl came up with the largest part of his strategy, gambiting about the doctor, etc - i'm not cashing credit where it isn't due, but we have been communicating a lot about that game. I didn't provide any advice as to specifically manipulate you, but i gave him some insight about the meta we shared together (at the time, only the jester game). We tried to push for your lynch because we thought you were easier than, say, Nancy, titus, or Amrun. Turned out you weren't. Adding that to the cult game we recently played together, i think you are a more than respectable player and you deserve to be recognized a large enough scum range over what has been described in Nacho's meta case.

I will reread my timeline, but going from memory i think most of the flaws have been wrt my read of Replica, not of you and Chara.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:58 am

In post 1559, Chara wrote:because my argument for scum Farkran has never been "well, he's bad."

at this point it's more like i find it hard to believe town Farkran doesn't reconsider when even players townreading him seem to think he's awful, because that's all i keep getting whenever i ask why he's town.
"well, i don't agree, but i like his fervor", or whatever it was you just said.
and i'm not calling him awful. to be clear. the issue here is i haven't seen evidence of Farkran really considering any outside opinions about... basically anything. well not the only issue but an issue.

Farkran: there are other things i'd like you to respond to but this post especially would be nice.

What do i have to respond, with regards to this post? Do you want to know why i am not reconsidering your slot, or Hectic's? I have no reason to, unless i can get another solve that could explain the current gamestate.

I did reconsider Replica, now i'm kinda reconsidering him

again

-but to a lesser extent- and i recently reconsidered Psyche. I'm also warming up to a Bingle flip, for everything that happened in his latest ISO and how the gamestate moved around him in the last few pages. I specifically claimed that, in a world where my reads are (were) all wrong, i'd turn to Amrun - even though i don't particularly trust her, if i can townlock her thanks to a flip, this game will be way easier for everyone, not just me. That's why i'm pushing so strong for a flip. It helps improving reads. Look at how the gamestate changed when i moved my vote to bingle. Everyone rushed back here trying to change/direct the day resolution. What do we gain from this, if we get no flip?

Do you still scumread me? Vote me. My hurt wagon has viability potential. But you are going to explain why, and where does a red or green Farkran flip get you. One more reason i'm not really fond of your slot is how you are dodging game-changing events, such as Suji's slip back in d1. I mean, that event and my vote on Bingle managed to shake off even Psyche - you are maybe the one who is reconsidering people the least, in this game. Second only to Replica, and perhaps Hectic.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:02 am

In post 1560, Replica wrote:In 4 spare, sparing a scum instantly tanks our chance of winning below 25%. The strength of the strategy comes from how likely all-town spares are. In 3 spare, sparing a scum means that they won't be forced to remove one. I do not want my strongest scumread spared. I would rather take the spare I'm not sure about but can get a coalition behind than risk a scumread being spared or a bad lynch going through.

Lynching at all removes the possibility of 4 spare. For 3 spare, lynching wrong wastes a mislynch. Lynching my strongest TR means it is both likely to be wrong FMPOV and removes my ideal spare candidate. If a lynch does happen, I want it to be on my top scumread, not on my top townread.

The fact that it does not instantly lose the game does not exclude the day being labeled a disaster. I really don't know how much more obvious I can make this.

Not even your highest scumread wants to be spared in the first place, to be honest. In order to get spared, i would need a vote from Nacho (might deliver, since i am a tier 2 townread) and one more vote from {Chara, Replica, Hectic, Amrun}. None of them are even remotely close to consider sparing me. If you think i would selfhammer my spare, you are sorely wrong. That would pretty much amount to a scumclaim, after the extent i have been contrasting spares in general.

I still don't get why you are so desperate.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:10 am

In post 1567, Chara wrote:
In post 1564, Replica wrote:Other than one line at Nacho he hasn't blinked at all of the "these reads of Farkran's are batshit crazy he can't be scum" lines. Somehow me saying "Yeah if he's scum he's playing poorly imo" has caused the steam to rise considerably.
this too. it's what i meant when i wondered why a town Farkran hasn't reconsidered at all. he says he doesn't have a large ego but i feel like receiving townreads for that sort of reason would be really annoying and/or prompt some reconsideration.

...where did i say i don't have a large ego? I have a enormous ego. Having a huge ego doesn't mean i am confident in my reads though, just in me being better than everyone else in this game, in this forum, or the universe.

Jokes aside, i never said i have a large ego. I do. I'm... only partially proud of it, sometimes it gets me in trouble more than what it's worth. I'm trying to tone down my tendency at thinking myself better than everyone else, after Normal 2106.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:24 am

In post 1573, Chara wrote:
In post 1568, Psyche wrote:I suppose my perception is that, despite your protestations, the rationales provided for your farkran scumreads are indistinguishable from criticisms of his play.

The "i haven't seen evidence of Farkran really considering any outside opinions about... basically anything" line is, again, a good example of this. How does that connect to him being scum?

I'd really rather Chara answer over anyone else pushing the wagon.
that's what i'm trying to figure out here. it's why i'm not voting to lynch him right now. i'm
not
confident he's scum.

if it's his personality, he can show me that himself in response. and if it
is
, maybe that could prompt some sort of rethinking on how he approaches the game. i don't know. mafia's a team game and i don't think soloing it is a good idea in the first place.

and if it's because he's scum, then i think it's a deliberate way to make him difficult to argue with, and possibly an attempt to emulate headstrong town.

again, your reasoning for him being town would be nice.

...did you end up reading my wiki page? You asked for a source to read my meta, some 20 pages ago or something. At least i think it was you. My meta is pretty much consistent with this game, town and scum alike. I am active, passionate, stubborn, megalomaniac, at times unpleasant, but often correct after a few trial and error iterations. So far i have never lost a game. I have never been lynched. I only mislynched town (as town) 3 times, and one of them was me trying to compromise on lynching a townread of mine (Egix, day 4 of Normal 2106). I think my scumrange is large enough to make me almost unreadable, that's why i often justify scumreads of me

that make sense

and are not just a permutation of "oh look, a newbie is being angry, must be caught scum". The sample size isn't large, i am fully aware that this will likely change sometimes in the future, but so far that's what i have.

This should answer comprehensively enough about my personality.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:35 am

In post 1596, Chara wrote:there's more to reply to, but i'm not talking about reconsidering a read or reacting to the gamestate, i'm talking about things like taking criticism, or having your opinion changed through the opinion of a different player. team town play. when you said i was being confusing i made a concentrated effort to be less confusing and have hopefully been less so since.

not everyone plays like that. i gave Wisdom as an example of someone who often doesn't (i think he still has his title for that), but there are plenty.

i want you to respond to my assertion that the players townreading you don't seem to listen to you. there was Bingle, but he was sheeping and said he hadn't looked at the case. do you think they should listen? do you wonder why they don't? is my actual assertion wrong and you are being listened to? am i wrong to say the players TRing you don't like your play? that's what i want to know. it's information i could mine from the thread but that just isn't feasible for me right now and i'd like your opinion anyway.

also, your case on me and Hectic remains something scum could have done but a situation that also has a town explanation, as Hectic already pointed out.

as for dodging game-changing events; i gave my opinion on that when it happened. that's not dodging, it's disagreeing.

and given how much i've gone back and forth on you, i find it rather inaccurate to say i haven't been reconsidering anything either.

i'm not going to vote you because i'm not confident you'll flip scum. i want to spare. if i can't spare Hectic then i have other options for that. if you flip red you flip red. if you flip green you flip green.

Eh, you are asking to me if i would like to be listened more? Yeah, i do. At least about the strategy to pursue in this game. I am not claiming i have the bestest reads in the world, but i definitely will not if we are not getting flips. The main reason i pushed so strong on a Hectic lynch instead of you, given that i scumread both with pretty much the same amount of confidence, is because Hectic has been much more in the spotlight than you were. Hectic was the top spare wagon in d1, i was the top fight wagon, and the wagons almost overlapped entirely. Don't you find that at least a tiny bit

odd

?

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:43 am

In post 1598, Replica wrote:I'm still floored that I am actually being asked to justify why I think it would be a bad idea to follow my strongest scumread in a lynch on my strongest townread

In post 1599, Replica wrote:Really Replica? Can you not
even imagine
a world where we are in fact both scum? Why are you opposing this lynch so much?

somebody please kill me

Have you ever heard of a concept called "bussing"? Do i recall wrong, or was it you who claimed that this game could be a direct extension of Newbie 1958? Could you inform the class as of why i won that game specifically?

Again, the problem is not you townreading Bingle, or you scumreading me. It's not even about not voting Bingle - i would be far more concerned if you did, actually. Voting with a scumread of yours against a townread of yours, when you have been so strong against lynching, would be immensely concerning.

The problem is your level of confidence in

both town!Bingle AND scum!Farkran

that you displayed when going out of your way and backpedaling on Hectic while at the same time placing your first hurt vote on me,

just to prevent a bingle flip

.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 11:45 am

In post 1605, Amrun wrote:
In post 1566, Chara wrote:also Replica, i replied to your Bingle towncase and wanted to know if you had anything from this game.

pedit: if Farkran is always like this, it's personality. there's no way to know that without poking at it, which is why i wanted Farkran to reply.
and it's
still
an issue if he's town.
I will say in a normal I played with Farkran, he was so deeply pocketed by scum bob he didn’t seem to consider outside opinions on it. We did end up winning though. Meh.

This is unfortunately true. It's not really nice of you to avoid mentioning that i dodged the first mislynch correctly, i pushed 2 out of 3 scum correctly while everyone else was scumreading me/egix, but yeah. I was completely burned and frustrated by that game, and your read of bob was better than mine. I respect you for that.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:10 pm

In post 1613, Replica wrote:
In post 1610, Farkran wrote:both town!Bingle AND scum!Farkran
If the first is right, a Bingle flip is a terrible idea.

If the second is right, there are two possible worlds. The first is that you are bussing. A Bingle flip is fine. The second is that you are not bussing. A Bingle flip is a terrible idea. These are not equally probable worlds.

It's not logical AND, it's logical OR.

In post 1614, Replica wrote:If neither are right, then yes, I have a huge problem...but of course you do when your two biggest reads are wrong. This does not mean "Let people lynch whoever lol"

Nope - you specifically said that both outcomes combined are why you described this gamestate as "the brink of disaster". You have seen Farkran S-2, Bingle F-3, and you panicked. Sparing scum i can understand - it's catastrophically bad, but as i explained in 1589, my spare (the catastrophical result that you are afraid of) is largely less probable than a Bingle lynch despite the 1 vote difference in my favor. Lynching town is bad, but not game-losing levels of bad - on the contrary, every flip would help improving this situation where deciding for a day resolution is a pain, every day. And this is assuming Bingle is town in the first place. You not acknowledging the possibility that he's scum, and panicking over a single potential town mislynch is what's concerning to me. So far, we have spared 1 town player. We have 3 more days in phase 1, then 1-2 more days in phase 2 depending on the route selected. How is this a bad gamestate, resultwise? The bad thing in this gamestate is the town disharmony, a situation which would be helped immensely by a flip. That you are opposing with all your heart and soul for... pretty much no reason at all.

Farkran · Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:01 pm

I admit i have been really unpleasant in that game, but i was mostly frustrated because of how i quarreled with PP and Menalque about the Garmr mislynch in d1 eod. I seriously considered quitting MS at the time. Am i that level of unreasonable in this game? If so, i'm sorry. Not my intent. I just don't want to regret conceding my instincts/reads. That Egix mislynch, in the same game, is also part of the reason why i'm being more stubborn - but at least i'm trying to communicate better.

I also mislynched Bingle in my recent cult game, but he was really different than how it is in this game. Honestly, if it wasn't for Almidia, i would probably have voted him way earlier. @Those who have direct meta experience with Bingle, is it common for him to play this halfassedly when he's disengaged in a game? Please refer to This ISO and This post in particular to see what i am talking about. Compare to Post 353/Post 609 where Bingle explains his very convoluted reaction test to shos. In the end, bingle was wrong and i was correct, but the effort he put into it was true. Then we mislynched him because of massclaim shenanigans, but that's a different story.

pedit: this post @Amrun and @everyone having meta with bingle

Farkran · Wed Feb 12, 2020 4:37 am

In post 1626, Nachomamma8 wrote:State of Nacho right now seems to be that there are two pivot points currently: the first and most important is Farkran's alignment, and the second is Bingle's alignment.

My preference currently is to lynch Chemist because I believe I have the game solved. Lynching Chemist now does two things - 1) if correct, it removes plenty of friction (in particular surrounding Replica and Farkran) and gets them reanalyzing. 2) If incorrect, it proves that my worldview is incorrect and so there's something shady in the state of Undertale. I also thought it did the same for Psyche but apparently his solve is different from mine. My second preference is a Hectic/Psyche Spare simply because I feel the case for them being town is the strongest and we definitely need to spare one of these two before they both die by bullets. My third preference is a Bingle lynch; forces me to focus in on where my reads are wrong, not AS helpful (if he's scum Replica reanalyzes, if he's town a bunch of people do), but if we aren't going to spare the people who seem to be the likeliest of being town then I think we need a chance to see if we're on the right track or not.

What's most concerning about this post is that Nacho points out the two most pivotal things as Farkran and Bingle alignment, but makes no mention of Hectic's alignment. That's literally the most pivotal thing about this game, for multiple reasons, including but not limited to sorting me, Chara, Nacho and to a lesser extent Replica.

Bingle flip doesn't even compare to Hectic's, and i really dislike Nacho waving around it as if Hectic was somehow already sorted (as town), yet sparing him is only second to lynch Chemist, which would accomplish less than flipping bingle in terms of information provided.

The disagreement in reads could justify the lynch order between bingle and chemist, but no way it would explain the lack of importance given to a Hectic flip while at the same time having him townlocked, but not enough to put his spare on top priority. This is something i could only expect from me and my drastical opposition to sparing, not nacho.

I can see team Nacho/Hectic going for a vanity push on Chemist at this point in time with the sole purpose of promoting the easiest, plausible day resolution i.e. sparing scum!Hectic, because that's what town is leaning to do.

I'm sorry, but we're not moving forward with a bingle flip, there's too much shit revolving around hectic and i'm strongly convinced we can only find scum in and around there. From the wagons that formed during d1 and the interactions between Hectic/Chara/Nacho, it makes absolutely no sense that there isn't scum among those three.

Today's lynch is always Hectic or Farkran. Pick your preference.

HURT: Farkran as i said, mislynching town is

strictly

better than sparing scum in this specific game. I will obviously update to a Hectic fight if someone wakes up to that.

Bingle is not the correct lynch for today. Except the resistance displayed by Replica and Bingle individual scum equity - which has just fallen down several levels of magnitude since he got back without unvoting me; it only required a quick VC read to grasp the current situation, so it's not just because of limited internet access: i doubt he would take his time to post, 2 days before the deadline, without even checking the easiest and quickest thing to assess the new gamestate - there's not really anything worth lynching there, except a generic flip, which however still contrasts with my reads of both Almidia and Replica. Bingle is probably town, and not a useful lynch. We can likely solve this game by lynching Hectic > Chara/Nacho. At this point i could almost consider sparing outside that group, i'd just rather not in case i am immensely wrong. Flipping them is just so much easier and involves less risks.

Farkran · Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:45 am

>"farkran is too stubborn"

>Literally everyone else in this game fails to reconsider the most obviously scummy interactions around a general consensus townread slot when the ONLY one pushing hectic is me and you are ALSO townreading me. I'm sure that scum is just afk and throwing, because that's all that any scum that ever existed is capable of doing.

Good luck sparing the slot who is townreaded by everyone

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 9:20 am

I honestly don't know how else i could contribute to this game. If you think that quickspare is town, good luck to you all.

HURT: Chara

If it's not Chara, i'm going for Nacho.

I have already cased enough for a solve, the game is still salvageable if i am correct. I am not up to have another week of discussing why sparing again is immensely wrong though, so if you are not yet willing to listen, call me when you are done. I still want to win though, i'll answer when asked to.

If anyone is interested, i think right now we can find town in Bingle > Amrun = Replica > Chemist, and one out of Chara/Nacho. Hectic quickhammering when we were waiting for Bingle to speak when he had just returned from a shortened V/LA is huge townpoints to bingle imo. And i think Psyche was killed to remove an obstacle to a Chara spare.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:18 am

This night kill was to be almost certainly in Psyche or Replica, the two most widely townread slots. Even if not the strongest townreads, pretty much no one was scumreading them by the end of d2. Psyche over Replica because Psyche reads could actually have a chance to be correct, although they probably needed some improvements.

3S/1F is ideal for scum because they get to remove 2 people unflipped and we don't even get to know if there is scum among the spared or not - assuming we don't lynch scum today, that is.

2S/2F is still good for scum because Psyche gets to be the ninja killer and he's probably targeting Amrun in this scenario.

Uhm... i just realized that Amrun could be scum too, but it would be very short sighted of her to kill Psyche specifically n2 knowing that we were probably going for a lynch by removing 1 sparepusher, when they could instead kill Replica who would have surely shot me - and then remove Psyche n3 - for the same effect with less risk.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:34 am

In post 1, popsofctown wrote: 3 players spared: The mafia immediately removes two players from the game without flipping them and must choose a mafiosi if no mafia was spared.

@pops Scum can remove people from the Spared list too?

I assumed they could only remove from the unspared ... but it's true that it isn't specified. In other cases, it is specified whether an effect can target unspared only (i.e. S1/F3) or spared and unspared alike (the kill from 2S/2F). Can you clarify?

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:46 am

In post 1666, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1640, Farkran wrote:>"farkran is too stubborn"

>Literally everyone else in this game fails to reconsider the most obviously scummy interactions around a general consensus townread slot when the ONLY one pushing hectic is me and you are ALSO townreading me. I'm sure that scum is just afk and throwing, because that's all that any scum that ever existed is capable of doing.

Good luck sparing the slot who is townreaded by everyone
Yes, you are absolutely being stubborn. You're complaining about
everyone else
in the game having a townread
that you don't share and complaining about them not reassessing when everyone else in the game having a single townread and you refusing to listen to the possibility of it being correct. This is the definition of stubbornness and the fact that you are being so angsty to the degree that you are means that you are losing the respect of the playerlist as a whole which means that if you are onto something with your scumreads then no one's going to listen to you. I've said it before, but stop reading to respond. Take a step back and make sure that you're actually listening to people.

This sentence alone is enough to prove you wrong.

The only scenario where one player is townread AND allowed to be spared by everyone -besides me- points to A. me being scum (alone, because literally nobody else was contrasting Hectic spare), or B. the consensus townread player being scum.

Guess what's more likely. Anyways, i'm tired of arguing - you have scum equity, but on the offchance you are town, we'll see postgame. I'm not changing my mind.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 11:55 am

In post 1675, popsofctown wrote:
In post 1668, Farkran wrote:
In post 1, popsofctown wrote: 3 players spared: The mafia immediately removes two players from the game without flipping them and must choose a mafiosi if no mafia was spared.

@pops Scum can remove people from the Spared list too?

I assumed they could only remove from the unspared ... but it's true that it isn't specified. In other cases, it is specified whether an effect can target unspared only (i.e. S1/F3) or spared and unspared alike (the kill from 2S/2F). Can you clarify?

The quality of being spared only protects someone from something if it is both factional and a nightkill. The remark that the 2 spare shot can target spared players is therefore redundant (but potentially helpful), because even though it's a kill, it's not factional, so being spared wouldn't offer any protection anyway.
Spared players aren't protected from removal-from-the-game because it's not factional, and doubly not protected because it's not even a kill. That was enough to make the reminder seem so redundant that I omitted it, but in hindsight it was worth including.

Thanks pops <3

I guess this means they will always remove Suji, + 1 town if scum is spared OR 1 scum if the 3S are all town, so... it's probably a bit better than how i interpreted it originally, but not really much. We still don't know if scum removed scum or town, so we don't know in which group to lynch - again, assuming we don't lynch scum today.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:01 pm

In post 1678, Nachomamma8 wrote:Or C - scum going along with sparing the consensus townread because it's not worth trying to chip away at the correct read of 6 separate townies.

Meh. 6 separate townies formed a perfect, unanimous townbloc and agreed with each other on sparing one more town. I wish i played with towns this good every time i rolled town.

It's just out of my grasp how *i* am the stubborn one out of the group, when literally no one has been willing to reassess their read of Hectic over two full in-game days, to the point that they don't even take into account the POSSIBILITY that they are being pocketed. This smells of TMI miles and miles afar, but then again Psyche was doing the same and he has just been conftowned by death, so i don't even know what to say.

I really don't want to repeat a Normal 2106 situation so i'll just shut up, we can talk postgame if you are town, otherwise i still think you have a fairly high scum equity.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:13 pm

In post 353, popsofctown wrote:
Spare Votecount 1.7
Hectic ----------------------------------
(5)
Chara, Nachomamma8
, Replica, Hectic,
Amrun

Replica --------

Farkran ------------------------------
(1)
Chemist1422

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------
(1)
Farkran

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi ----------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

SherlockHolmes -----------------------
(1)
SherlockHolmes
, Replica

Bingle ----------------------------------

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not sparing:
- (3)
Sujimichi
, Bingle,
Psyche

Fight Votecount 1.7
Hectic ----------------------------------

Replica ----------------------------------
(1)
Chemist1422

Farkran ------------------------------
(4)
Nachomamma8, Amrun
,
Sujimichi
,
Chara

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi --------------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------
(1)
Farkran

SherlockHolmes -----------------------
(2)
Hectic

Bingle ----------------------------------
(1)
SherlockHolmes

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not Fighting:
- (3)
Psyche
, Bingle, Replica

I guess i should just have stopped there for my own good. There is scum on the overlapping wagons.

Farkran · Fri Feb 14, 2020 12:40 pm

I guess Replica is my menalque, and Nacho is my Rabid. Sorry for the analogies, this game is just so very similar to that one.

@Replica, can we compromise on a Nacho lynch today, and agree that we lynch either me or Chara if he flips town, otherwise we spare either you or your highest townread (i guess bingle) on a red flip? I honestly think there's pretty much no world in which you are scum by now.

pedit: we can talk about it, nacho. As you said, the day is long. Read my posts with the premise that i thought Hectic would be scum with one of those on the overlapping wagons. I started looking at Replica, Chemist, Bingle only when i re-read the game with the assumption that Hectic and the full wagon on me was town, after the sujimichi slip event. The large majority of the weird interactions come from Hectic, not from his partners - still, the way they responded was not natural. Check my case against Chara around d2 start to see what i mean, but once again, all of this is based on the -imo- even more accurate premise that people should hear a bell ringing when Hectic behaves awkwardly and yet he's still so widely townread as to be spared by 90% of the playerlist. Also, i think your meta case of Hectic is poor and superficial - again giving you very little reason to townread the slot so much as to spare him when you entered the game with a leaning on a lynch resolution.

Right now i'll go to sleep though, almost 1 AM here.

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 3:59 am

In post 1690, Chara wrote:
pedit: why do we lynch me on a Nacho townflip?
i'd be happy to spare Replica if that's on the table.

Scum on my wagon, i don't think it's Amrun.

Have you got any updated reads to share? Besides your recent V/LA announce, you seem less and less engaged with this game, your content hasn't progressed much - if at all - in terms of both quantity and quality. Do you still feel confident on your d1 solve? Why?

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:11 am

In post 1700, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1204, Farkran wrote:And going through this from the other way around, i still think Chara should be way more paranoid of Hectic. Besides being tonally appropriate, Hectic's content is not top quality, and neither are his actions. Chara was not as confident as Replica, Hectic or Psyche about choosing the spare route, so why is it placing all its faith on a Hectic spare instead of exploring fight possibilities for today?
This seems to be a big sticking point for you wrt Chara - why does it only apply to Chara specifically? Why didn't you think it was scum indicative coming from Psyche, me, Bingle?

I think there's more chance of at least 1 scum on my wagon, after i reconsidered Replica. Neither Psyche or Almidia had anything to do with Hectic in d1. You didn't talk much during d1 eod, but when you got back trying to push Hectic again, it is scum indicative for you too. At the time, your only towncase of Hectic was gimmicking and superficial meta analysis which we still don't agree about, but i have yet to check the new scum game that you have pointed out.

In post 1700, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1341, Farkran wrote:1) Scum!Chemist = i literally cannot see a reason for him to push me as a spare unless we are exactly the scum team, which is an immediate no to me.
This is a shallow thought. I do agree that it is a move Chemist is less likely to do as scum than town, but I don't find it impossible for Chemist to spare you as scum - means that there's a possibility for him to make a friend that might defend him from a lynch, means that he's possibly connecting the two of you together in other people's eyes, etc. There is risk carried in it in maybe someone like Replica who is scumreading you will turn on him, but I don't think the risk overwhelmingly outpaces the possible rewards.

Scum!Chemist could start a spare wagon on me if he hopes for a different resolution - i pointed this out later - but while also pushing a Nacho wagon when nobody besides me was endorsing it? If Hectic was town and Chemist was scum, i would think Chemist would have put much more effort in trying to derail the Hectic spare, but his main effort was put into sparing me instead (since he came back later, when i was at Spare minus 2, without unvoting), which from my POV does not make sense.

In post 1700, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1341, Farkran wrote:Otherwise she could just push to spare her partner and it wouldn't even be a hard feat to achieve.
If her partner is in Chemist/Bingle, then who would the townies be to support her in sparing either? I don't think there's anyone who has Chemist/Bingle on the top of their list except for Replica and one person isn't going to make it happen.

I could see Amrun bussing Bingle, or Chemist trying to UTR with Amrun, but as i explained above and earlier, i don't see any significant scum equity in chemist and bingle after d2 eod. Bingle slot is ambigous in a way that could be explained by scum motivation or game disengagement - but it holds true for him too that he didn't unvote my spare when he came back from the V/LA, so i'm more inclined to believe in the towniness of Almidia and disengagement from Bingle.

In post 1700, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1341, Farkran wrote:scum!Bingle voting for a mislynch on town!Hectic. I have more of a hard time seeing scum!Bingle turning his read upside down and sparing town!Hectic, though.
Why is that?

Why would scum!Bingle spare town!Hectic or town!Farkran in d2?

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:31 am

In post 1704, Nachomamma8 wrote:/am tired, going to bed soon. questions for Farkran:

1) why did you self-vote yesterday? you have this post from NY 2106 where you said that self-voting was "gamethrowing, even if we get info". what made that situation different? did you really think there was a significant chance of you being lynched?

2) i guess i still don't understand your cases against me/hectic/chara. there's not a lot of places in your case where you talk about why hectic is scum independent of everyone else or why chara is scum independent of everyone else or why i am scum independent of everyone else which i thought was just your playstyle but clearly isn't - like i understand you like to think about associatives early but they're not a replacement for having actual reasons. have you read hectic's meta?

3) why do you think there is scum in the group that voted to lynch your predecessor that you thought was scummy and to spare hectic? like how is people agreeing with Amrun that Asriel needs to be pressured and ALSO following the town case on Hectic "too cohesive to be natural"? why would scum cluster together to spare a townie? why would scum cluster together to form a wagon on your predecessor that clearly didn't have a whole lot of bite behind it?

4) can we retread on #722? replica's post was silly but it doesn't make sense for you to jump down his throat as a result of it - what motivation does replica have as scum to post something like that?

1) I usually never selfvote, i really think it's a bad move from either alignment unless scum is trying to shut the game up before too much info about the scumteam leak out, i.e. preventing associatives from the partner, etc. In this specific game though, lynching town is strictly worse than sparing scum. I offered a viable counterwagon to prevent Hectic spare, and at the same time we (well, you) could have evaluated who would pick it up and who would turn it down. I didn't expect Psyche to push Hectic even further in response to that. I literally don't know what to say about Psyche, except hope that i am wrong and he is correct, still i think that was a very dumb move coming from town.

2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.

3) My pred was scummy, and that justifies both town and scum being on the wagon. If i was a spectator to this game, i might probably have voted Asriel too. But knowing the Asriel role PM i'm more inclined to believe there was 1 scum on it. This is not all there is to it though - i tried assuming that the full wagon was town after the suji slip, and i found out that the people outside the wagon are townier than those inside it, so i went back to consider pushing a solve of Hectic/1-on-my-wagon. Why wouldn't scum jump onto a lynchbait, in your opinion? What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?

4) My push on Replica, at that point in time, was entirely based on how Replica was pushing bad math, while also having a dominant and competitive personality, while ALSO being not confident in his ability to read. Put things together = scum trying to pursue the scumsided route by hiding behind poor logic which however sounded like solid, because "omg 7% higher EV, we cannot possibly miss that opportunity!" isn't really better than "we can improve our reads by lynching, and eventually spare later IF and only IF we lynch at least 1 scum AND we are confident enough on other people not being his partners". I simply didn't believe that town could be so inconsistent about their own personality - from a competitive and egocentric player, i would expect either that you ditch the useless 7% EV chance because you don't think your reads are accurate and go for the better route OR you are confident enough in your townreads that you don't care about the added info from lynching. I based my stance on the fact that Spare is bad though, and while i still think i am correct wrt that argument, i'm not going to resume it or be as insistent on my reasoning, because it turned out that Replica (and the majority of other players) do not agree with me (despite being town, i.e. Psyche).

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:48 am

In post 1700, Nachomamma8 wrote: I have no doubt that Hectic will have improved in many aspects when he plays his next scumgame now that he's got a bunch more town games under his belt. However, the scumgame that he's starting from is one where he was afraid to post as scum, which should incrementally improve as he plays multiple scum games but I wouldn't expect the improvement to be this dramatic.

And, embarrassingly found that Hectic posted a recent scum game that I couldn't find for the life of me here, which I'd suggest you'd read through real quick - still problematic as it includes a jester and Hectic just mostly pretended to be a jester, but still think there's a dramatic difference in Hectic actually scumhunting and trying to figure out the game here and instead just pretending to be a jester and fucking around there. Also feel delaying his spare as scum when Suji asked if he wanted to be hammered would be the sign of scum who is confident and in control (and thus felt they'd be able to cash in on the spare down the road) and don't think the profile from this game demonstrates that's who Hectic is as scum based on how he handled his partner getting lynched Day 1 there.

I thought things like picking at the alimida's inconsistency in their townread on him here was also a surprising play from Hectic if he was scum here, as was prodding Suji why they were willing to spare him - from a scum perspective, you're making people feel awkward for wanting to spare you but it makes a ton of a sense from a town perspective, later translates to him also getting a bit paranoid of Chemist for also feeling that he was jumping on townreading him for no reason.

And there are a bunch of small things, but overall it's simply because the level of content that he's produced and the smaller tiny paranoid thoughts that maybe his read here or there is wrong is a big jump from his completed scum games so far. I can go into some of the smaller things if you'd find it productive but I think the delayed spare + talking about why he thought the delayed spare in thread was a mistake is the tipping point from me to "extremely confident town".

Hmmm. That scum game, even if it's once again a different format, is still kinda bad and it's only from ~1 month ago. What you say about him could make sense. However... now that you mention it, why do you have so much interest and access to Hectic meta, and Hectic only, when in post 122 you say this is the first time you have played with him?

In post 138, you say that metadiving is an important part to your scumhunting strategy, yet if i recall correct you have only metaed Hectic for a large part of this game. You didn't even meta Chemist, currently your highest scumread - correct me if i'm mistaken - or Bingle, the slot who has the most inconsistencies with his own meta as i have been pointing out around d2 end. Hectic is a relatively new player, but he already accumulated dozens of games in his history. Why do you focus that much on towncasing him by meta, and why did you have enough time and patience to look for his scumgames when you didn't do the same for anyone else?

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:02 am

In post 1713, Chara wrote:
In post 1711, Farkran wrote:2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.
i would like to hear about my individual scum equity. i think we talked about this earlier in the game regarding my lack of suspicion when Hectic voted me, which you found strange.

also: i don't think it wise to discount that scum might let town Hectic be spared or even help it along. combination of scum not playing optimally as you're suggesting
and
deciding it isn't worth pushing against. in a vacuum i don't see a town spare wagon necessarily being composed of only town. if this wasn't your point then by all means correct me.

WRT Chara individual scum equity:

First of all, being on my pred's wagon in d1. As i said, town would have reasons to do that, but it doesn't mean scum wouldn't push for a town mislynch over a town spare when a lynchbait appears. If Hectic is town, because here we're assuming such a scenario, your Replica spare at d1 eod was to focus on promoting the mislynch instead of sparing. When Hectic started scumreading you for it, instead of being suspicious of a very weird push from him, you subconsciously accepted it as if it was correct. You were either complacent or scared, not suspicious. Which is why then you entered d2 with a Hectic spare without any reservations, even if you failed to produce any further scumread or analysis of other people. Looking through your ISO from post 931 onwards (start of d2), you only asked people around without updating any of your solve theories. "Hectic is town, Farkran is scum", period. All the other slots are pretty much null or nulltown. You have no idea what scum is doing from your POV, except for me pushing Hectic/Chara as a double town mislynch, and you don't seem interested in improving that stance.

Farkran · Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:32 am

I missed these two earlier.

In post 1705, Nachomamma8 wrote:as far as your hatred of sparing bonuses go...

why were you so opposed to the 2-2 route?

if we lynch and do nothing but lynch, we have 4 town controlled kills before we lose.
if we spare twice and lynch twice, we have 5 town controlled kills before we lose, and we get a couple days where universal townreads get to chill with one another and view the game without scum being able to specifically play to them. vca is a little weirder but you get the chance to analyze spare wagons and hurt wagons which seems like it would be strictly better.

2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly

worse

than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.

In post 1706, Nachomamma8 wrote:can you also explain the amrun townslip more in depth? and why Replica's post here doesn't qualify as a townslip? my basic understanding of it was that amrun made an obviously wrong misrep of suji during her push there which town are likely to do because tunnel-vision and scum are not because unnecessary risk. my criticism with that reasoning is that it's something that's happened a surprisingly large amount in this game but this is the only "townslip" you found, i don't like you wording it as a townslip because that makes it sound stronger than it was and it's not like this is something you specifically seek out in other games.

I suppose you are referring to 521? That's how Amrun post vibed to me when i read it. I would assume scum!Amrun would be much more careful when pushing for a mislynch, than use a misrep from something that happened immediately before her post for a case. The only circumstances where i could see Amrun pushing for scum!suji so fast are if she really believes he's scum (as explained in my post), or if she's trying to put some quick pressure on him - both pointing to Amrun being town. She does have a large enough scumrange, so it's not anything decisive. I think, though, that Amrun is one of the least scummy slots on my wagon and in this playerlist in general.

That Replica post... could also apply. And Hectic's 280 would also explain where you got that scumgame from. I had overlooked both. Still, if you found the scumgame from that post, i wonder how you wouldn't be suspicious of Hectic being self-aware of what he specifically

should avoid doing

as scum. I mean, it's not about me being stubborn, it's about your level of confidence on evidence that isn't even close to anything decisive, if at all relevant, to produce a towncase of Hectic.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:28 am

In post 1721, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1710, Farkran wrote:Scum!Chemist could start a spare wagon on me if he hopes for a different resolution - i pointed this out later - but while also pushing a Nacho wagon when nobody besides me was endorsing it? If Hectic was town and Chemist was scum, i would think Chemist would have put much more effort in trying to derail the Hectic spare, but his main effort was put into sparing me instead (since he came back later, when i was at Spare minus 2, without unvoting), which from my POV does not make sense.
chemist - if town - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense
chemist - if scum - is kinda just floating around and not doing things that make too much sense

There's probably one person who I don't expect to have a particularly firm or planned out agenda if scum and that person is Chemist. Do you disagree?

This could be paraphrased to "Chemist is unreadable". Does this mean you have him as scum by PoE only? I am always having the same problem with you, which is badly distributed confidence on reads. From what i have seen in your recent posting and past ISO, you have no reason to firmly townread any in {Chara, Bingle, Amrun, Chemist, Farkran, Replica}. Let's assume that you (used to) townread me based on tone and sincerity, perhaps Chara and Replica too, even though i don't particularly agree with Chara. Why do you pick Chemist over Bingle and Amrun as your top scumread? I understand that you are pairing him with both the other two, but if there is one important thing in this game is to lynch scum. This has been true ever since d1, but today even moreso.

Let's talk a bit, me and you, about why Chemist would be a better guess than Bingle or Amrun. I will keep my mind open, i don't even necessarily disagree within this particular context, but i want to hear the reasoning that comes from your POV. Does Chemist/any explain the gamestate and actions occurred in the past days? I am considering, as the staple points of this game, these three things:
1) d1 Hectic spare wagon
2) d1 Asriel fight wagon
3) d2 Hectic spare wagon

And to a lesser extent, Bingle spare wagon, Farkran spare wagon, Fark/Amrun push on Bingle and ultimately a lot of things that happened during d2 are worth analyzing - what scumteam would explain these interactions? I can only really see a few, and most are based on either Hectic being scum with one of his spare supporters, or Farkran being scum with one of those who didn't spare Hectic. There has been literally no direct resistance on the Hectic spare except for me, and some amount of indirect resistance by Chemist and Bingle. Keep in mind that Amrun was sparing Hectic when he was L-1 with intent during d1. If hectic is town, his spare can only be explained by a Farkran/Chemist, Farkran/Bingle or Chemist/Bingle team. Set aside that i will reject any Farkran-based solve, why are

you

not including Farkran-based solves? As for Chemist and Bingle, they resolved d2 by sparing me. Which, once again, does not make a huge amount of sense as a scum strategy unless this was a vanity spare while at the same time pushing for a viable lynch - i had 2 votes from Chara and Replica at the time, why spare Farkran instead of lynch Farkran, from a Bingle/Chemist solve pov? Amrun would have gladly joined, resulting in a hammer even without my self-contribute.

In post 1721, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1710, Farkran wrote:I could see Amrun bussing Bingle, or Chemist trying to UTR with Amrun, but as i explained above and earlier, i don't see any significant scum equity in chemist and bingle after d2 eod. Bingle slot is ambigous in a way that could be explained by scum motivation or game disengagement - but it holds true for him too that he didn't unvote my spare when he came back from the V/LA, so i'm more inclined to believe in the towniness of Almidia and disengagement from Bingle.
You said that it would be easy for Amrun to get her partner spared. I pointed out that Chemist/Bingle don't really have support to be spared at this point in time. How does Amrun get her partner spared if her partner is one of Bingle/Chemist?

In post 1711, Farkran wrote:2) Hectic and Chara have individual scum equity. You have scum equity mostly if partnered with Hectic, at this point. Before the Hectic spare was finalized, there was a chance that scum would take back their Hectic vote - if Hectic is town. Scum priority outcomes should go by: spare scum > lynch town > spare town > lynch scum.
Farkran, what is your case for Hectic's individual scum equity?

I went over it several times by now, but since i have been accused of circular reasoning, i will explain how you (most, if not all) have been superficially ditching my case by being the true stubborn people in this game.

1) There was a fight wagon on me. I assume there is scum in there. My wagon overlapped with Hectic's spare wagon. If i assume there is at least 1 scum on my wagon, why would that scum player also spare town!Hectic? Let's assume that it could work in d1 to pocket other people, but why would you pursue the same in d2, when you have already spared conftown? This could point to scum!Amrun if hectic is town, but it would have to be partnered with me or Chemist. My main concern about Hectic is that his spare wagon met no resistance from scum, during both days, and the level of confidence displayed by people who voted him is exaggerated, misplaced.

2) Hectic made several bad progression swings in d1 eod and d2. I have already talked about Chara (scumreading it for the unvote was ok, sparing it in d2 made no sense at all), but even Hectic push about me is based on bad reasoning. He pushed me for not sparing sujimichi, when i immediately entered the game saying that i wouldn't spare even myself. He never tried to understand my point of view, he never offered a solve of the game that includes scum!me, even when i asked multiple times to talk about potential lynches. Promoting a spare resolution is one thing (which i conceded about just disagreeing), refusing to scumhunt at all is another. This is the same thing Chara did during the whole of d2.

In post 1721, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1711, Farkran wrote:3) My pred was scummy, and that justifies both town and scum being on the wagon. If i was a spectator to this game, i might probably have voted Asriel too. But knowing the Asriel role PM i'm more inclined to believe there was 1 scum on it. This is not all there is to it though - i tried assuming that the full wagon was town after the suji slip, and i found out that the people outside the wagon are townier than those inside it, so i went back to consider pushing a solve of Hectic/1-on-my-wagon. Why wouldn't scum jump onto a lynchbait, in your opinion? What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?
i understand why you think that there's probably scum on your fight wagon. i agree. i don't understand 1684, which implies that those same names also being on the hectic spare wagon increases the chances of that group being scum.

As i said above, why would scum spare town!Hectic when they can readily lynch town!Asriel? The only differences in those two wagons were Replica and Hectic himself. Why would both Nacho and Amrun (and to a lesser extent even Chara), who entered the game favoring a lynch resolution, spare town over lynching town? They wouldn't even have been scumreaded for contrasting a Hectic spare wagon, it was just the correct thing to do, especially when the basis for townreading Hectic is superficial meta and gimmicking.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:39 am

In post 1722, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1711, Farkran wrote:What makes you confident that Amrun and Chara are town? What should make me confident that you are town?
i'm not really confident that either are town, particularly not confident that amrun is town. i'm town but i think the point of the game is that you're supposed to get there on your own.

I'd like to hear your case of scum!Amrun. Besides my tone and content townread, my main issue with scum!Amrun is that i don't have a ready partner for him... who isn't Hectic, i guess, but even then Amrun would just have voted for Hectic spare in d2 instead of trying to push for a Bingle flip. Amrun is the only slot who has plausible, believable concern about his read. Faking this, very likely isn't outside her scumrange, but who's she partner with? It's once again just me or hectic.

In post 1722, Nachomamma8 wrote: i want you to talk about this quote again:
In post 722, Farkran wrote:This line in particular is the most dangerous thing you have slipped out so far. This means that you don't trust your own reads enough to see them fulfill their purpose. "The DANGER of others trying to use it to start wagons"? What's up with that thought process? You have scumreads because you want to remove scum. You use wagons to remove scum. You are NOT afraid of people wagoning your scumreads - you WANT them to, that's the purpose of scumreading someone.
that seemed to be the straw that broke the camel's back wrt your read on replica. i don't understand why - what is the motivation for Replica as scum to say the quoted if it's something he doesn't believe?

At the time, i thought it did not make sense to push for a spare resolution SO HARD as Replica did back there. I mean, refusing to lynch to the point that you don't vote because

you are afraid that people would sheep you

is just... immensely nonsensical when, at the same time, you are placing your full confidence in voting your townreads. You cannot just explain this via bad math only. I reconsidered Replica later, after i realized how many people and how strongly they believe they could solve this game without flipping anyone at at all. Which is still beyond me, but such is reality.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:44 am

In post 1726, Nachomamma8 wrote:i didn't meta chemist because we've played together and i don't need a baseline of him. i didn't meta bingle because we've played together and i don't need a baseline of him.

This is interesting. Can you tell me what would you expect from town!them and scum!them? Because based on 1721 you don't seem to have a lot of confidence on your knowledge of Chemist. I only experienced a game with town!Chemist, the magireco modded by Tetsuya/Torque. With Bingle, i only have town!him in the cult game modded by Kerset. Chemist is similar to the magireco Chemist, whereas this Bingle is completely different than the Bingle i know. What's your experience?

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:48 am

In post 1744, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:54 am

In post 1746, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm frustrated that i'm still thinking about farkran at this point. i'm fine leaving maybe one or two people in the CANNOT READ bin but i didn't expect him to be one of them. i think there's a lot to point to farkran being town but then there's also the fact that the man cannot make a scum case or town case on anyone without assuming their alignment or tying it back to the HECTIC IS SCUM theory.

Like, i feel that you are trying to adjust your reads to be more and more convenient to your survival, ever since i have been suggesting to lynch you. What have i done that makes me look scummier than yesterday, except moving my vote to you? You know i have been scumleaning you for reasons similar to why i am scumreading Chara, this is not news.

Yesterday, you were considering joining the Bingle fight wagon, but you didn't get the chance to produce content about it because Hectic quickspared himself. Why didn't you consider a Farkran/Bingle solve yesterday? Or Farkran/Chemist? Or Farkran/Amrun? Are you considering any of those today?

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:00 am

In post 1748, Nachomamma8 wrote: farkran is townreading
Amrun
because
Amrun
could get any one of your hypothetical partners spared.
that doesn't make sense to me - the exchanges that we had circulating around your possible partners was me prodding at the above thought.

Uh... no, i'm not townreading Amrun. I am town

leaning

Amrun because i can't find a good partner for him that would explain this gamestate, because of how she behaved around most slots, thinking in terms of genuine paranoia/doubt rather than having misplaced confidence. This means i would always lynch Chara and Nacho first, not that Amrun is townlocked. The same goes about Chemist, Bingle and Replica. Certainly though, the Amrun/Bingle team would have had largely more luck in trying to spare Bingle rather than bussing him.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:01 am

In post 1758, Bingle wrote:I meant to spend time on this today and didn’t. I apologize. I am halfway done with reading, though and feel considerably worse about both Fark and Amrun and considerably better about Chara.

Explain yourself. What changed?

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:02 am

In post 1759, Chemist1422 wrote:hello

I’m down to fight Bingle today I think

Partner with who?

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:09 am

In post 1761, Chara wrote:Farkran: i didn't find Hectic's vote on me suspicious. it looked like paranoia and that's towny.

Why does nobody notice that this does not make sense?

You were on Hectic's spare wagon when Sujimichi asked if he was ready to hammer. This implies that you were fine with Hectic spare up to that point, you wouldn't have been disappointed if he was being spared as a d1 resolution. This is ok, if you townread him.

Then you vote Replica, and Hectic scumreads you. It's... slightly less ok, but more than plausible if he thinks scum!you found an opportunity to resolve the day differently - for instance, lynching Asriel/Farkran.

Then, you tell him you are still townreading him and every doubt is vaporized from both sides. This was enough to enter d2 with a mutual spare of each other. Immediately. Without even talking about anything else.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 6:14 am

In post 1766, Chara wrote:i don't understand how you can confidently say scum Amrun could only be partned with you or Hectic. why can't she be partnered with me? or Chemist? or Nacho?

Why would team Amrun/{Chara, Chemist, Nacho} spare Hectic or Farkran, instead of sparing Chara, lynching Bingle or lynching Farkran? There were plenty of opportunities for both outcomes in d2, you only had to join your efforts. You wouldn't even be scumread for any of those, since you would have been going with the consensus, not against it. Instead, Chara and Nacho were creating even more consensus for Hectic spare, Amrun was pretty much alone in pushing Bingle and Chemist spared me.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 7:45 am

@Chara

Scum can dissociate their pushes and they can bus themselves. Why would they allow a town!Hectic spare when they had better outcomes available though? Sparing town - when you actually

know

they are town - is bad for the scum wincon. Sparing scum, instead, is one of the best possible outcomes for them, and town wouldn't know.

Why wouldn't you push for sparing your partner, if given the opportunity? Why wouldn't you compromise on a town mislynch, if given the opportunity? The problem with you allowing townhunt as a primary strategy is that you are NOT considering what scum would be doing when you are getting a result that looks fine but in reality should ring millions of bells in your head. You should not be fine with the gamestate, if you have no clue where scum is.

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:12 pm

In post 1783, Bingle wrote:Team analysis

Now this is a post i am inclined to like as a first impression, coming from the Bingle i am used to know. Why did it take so long to build some deep-insight thoughts is still a little concerning, as well as some inconsistencies within it which however i'd be more than happy to talk about.

First of all, wrt Hectic/Chara. You are reading their interactions from a future, added-knowledge point of view, one where you already know that Suji would townslip massively and claim FN. What would happen, in your opinion, if Suji wasn't widely acknowledged as town as much as he was? Chara could go back and vote Hectic at any given time. He was always going to be the d1 spare, as demonstrated by him being the

d2

spare - do you think a Hectic/Chara team would expect a different d1 outcome at that point in time?

Secondly, do you think it would be outside Nacho's scumrange to assertively townread and push his partner as a spare, in a game where the partner wouldn't flip? Let's take the long road there, and just tell me, what would you have done as scum in this game, if you started from the beginning instead of replacing in? Note that Nacho was pretty much the first slot to push Hectic as a spare, basing his case on gimmicking and a meta analysis that i would define superficial. Do you disagree on this?

WRT any chemist team, why does chemist spare Farkran if he's scum with non-Farkran? Do you think it was a vanity spare vote? If so, why did he fight Nacho, instead of pushing a mislynch on the most likely lynch wagon, i.e. Farkran himself? If he is scum with me, why didn't he push for a mislynch on the second most likely, i.e. Bingle? You did pretty much the same thing as Chemist did, yet Chemist is significantly lower than Nacho and most importantly lower than both me and Chara in your latest readlist. I do not understand why.

If i had to correct your list, it would be like this (differences in bold or striked):

Hectic/Chara
Hectic/Nacho

Hectic/Replica
Replica/Chemist1422
Replica/Amrun
Amrun/Chara (this team is also the most threatened by psyche now that i am looking at it, and would be plausible with scum on my wagon, i'll have to take a better look at their interactions - instinctively i would say that Amrun wouldn't have played the way she did if this was the case though)
Chara/Chemist
Nacho/Chara
Farkran/Chemist

Farkran/Amrun

(bus in d1 is plausible with the added knowledge of Amrun progression on Hectic and me)

Replica/Farkran

Would you really consider this when you do not admit a Amrun/Bingle team? Why?

Replica/Nacho

A psyche kill wouldn't make sense at all with this team, they would have had the best chances of being spared with... literally any different kill

Replica/Chara

This team would have either spared Chara or lynched Farkran instead of sparing Hectic in d2, they had plenty of opportunities for both outcomes

I didn't put Bingle into any team because i am talking to you, but i could easily put you in several, if i assume that Bingle's vote to spare me is vanity the same way as Chemist was.

Thoughts?

pedit: i'll answer you tomorrow Nacho, i will likely be in my bed by the time you finished

Farkran · Sun Feb 16, 2020 12:29 pm

In post 1789, Bingle wrote:
In post 1720, Farkran wrote:2S/2F is the possibly most similar to a full genocide route, yet you still renounce to 2 flip info. We have 5 town-controlled kills in both routes though, because full genocide leads to a 5th lynch in New Home lylo. Of course, assuming you lynch at least one scum in the process, but then it's also true that you can spare scum within the 2S route. Analyzing spare wagon is strictly worse than fight wagons, because you don't get the flip. Even if you are forced to go down the 2S/2F route, it would still be better to lynch first and spare later. A minor mathematical advantage is insignificant compared to flip information, i will never say it enough, just in case we get to play another undertale some day in the future.
First of all, the setup is autowin if the first lynch is on scum. Second of all, if you want to play a game without a spare mechanic as opposed to just whining about the conceit of the game you signed up for for it's duration, maybe sign up for a game without a spare mechanic. Third, if you want to waste time talking about theory that's irrelevant to the game for some theoretical future game, maybe save it for the post game where your alignment is known and you're not a giant distraction.

A final note - if we wish to stop talking about setup spec, please consider that you could have plausibly wrong premises instead of complaining to me. I am not distracting anyone, the very post you quoted, as well as many others, were relevant to game-solving.

1) A scum lynch is close to an autowin at any point in time you get it, so i still don't understand the benefits of sparing earlier rather than later. 3S/1F is only good if the F is scum, but it doesn't make it easier to find scum. You could have spared scum and you wouldn't know, so the whole "odds are better later" argument is false.
2) The spare mechanic is not bad in a vacuum. I would have loved to make use of sparing if i were scum, because it's mostly scumsided, in my opinion. Otherwise, it just needs some tweaks to become viable.
3) Of course we can talk about it post-game, but at least during d1 i thought that pushing for spares, at least in certain circumstances that i explained at length, was scum indicative. Turned out i was wrong and i just heavily disagree with the town, generally speaking.
4) I wanted to play this game because i like pops and the Undertale theme, then i ended up not /inning when it started because of team mafia. When a free spot became available (and not filled before i could notify pops), i joined. I hate timezones.

Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:04 am

In post 1800, Bingle wrote:This level of engagement took so long because I was mobile only. I've... not hidden that?

Hectic/Chara-

Even if I assume that Hectic/Chara assumed that Chara would later be able to push through the spare wagon, there's no reason not to stay on wagon from Chara. At best, jumping off there delays the day end and means town has more information. At worst, it draws attention to Chara and allows for opinions to change. If you're happy with the way the thread is going as scum (spare wagon with your partner as the target at L-1 and two slots willing to hammer qualifies) you don't generally make big waves, and it's weird to me that you don't see that.

Nacho trying to strongarm a partner spare doesn't seem outside of his range, no, but specifically looking through and finding all of his scum meta is an odd tack for buddyNacho to take. It's not an impossible team, I suppose, but I'm not really interested in Hectic/Nacho as a team that's likely. It is probably the weakest of my exclusions, and was mostly included on the basis that both Rep and Amrun had already reached that conclusion and it made sense to me.

I don't think there was any real chance of you being spared yesterday. It's why I didn't bother unvoting you. Leaving my vote there had no real chance of having a big impact. As for being worried about your lynch, your wagon capped at L-3 while the spare was at L-1 (Count 2.7). There was never any wagon in serious contention for an actual lynch yesterday, and pretending otherwise is pretty meh.

I'm not sure why you're arguing for the inclusion of Amrun/you, but I don't think a glorified lurker wagon that was the leading wagon at the time while Amrun had a pretty comfortable reason to give you room (replacement) (Count 1.8).

I'd be interested in your reasons for Replica/Fark and Replica/Chara not being viable, although I think your Rep/Nacho reasoning is sound. I think as far as me teams goes, Amrun is the only one that doesn't really make sense. The reason that I'm not talking about them is that I'm clearly biased by my foreknowledge that I'm town and so talking about them is a waste of time.

Do you disagree with my conclusions, past the individual pairings?

The point about not including you in the team analysis is not to force you to say you aren't town - of course you wouldn't - but to let you realize that your slot is largely similar to chemist's. You have almidia history to back you up, but otherwise you have said and done mostly the same things that chemist did. Disengagement, being nullscum as general consensus, and sparing farkran. This trend might change from now on.

I can agree wrt Farkran/Amrun though. A unvote would have been acceptable once the slot you're wagoning gets replaced. Besides, i am too discarding any Farkran-based solve, i'm including them to see what other people have to say and see if their pushes make sense from their pov.

About Replica/Fark, he has been hardbussing me ever since our first exchange. We have been fighting over setup spec at great length, tossing borderline unpolite words at each other for...ever, and we aren't saving any opportunity to clash whenever it appears. I'm not even saying that would be outside our (or at least my) scumrange, but how are we different than Bingle/Amrun? The question is mostly aimed at why you would think we are different, rather than allowing or disallowing that team. I'm trying to understand how you arrived to some conclusions.

Hectic/Chara. Assume they are SvS. They managed to consolidate Hectic spare, but they didn't consolidate Chara spare or even a heavily Spare-based route. Why wouldn't they try to distance themselves, once they have secured Hectic town equity? Wouldn't it have been strictly better to have Hectic spared without Chara on his wagon? That was day 1, what would have happened if we chose to go for a 2S/2F or 3S/1F without including Chara? What if the 1F was Chara? This... could be me overthinking it, but it's one of the few teams that would easily explain this gamestate.

Replica/Chara... would have tried to spare Chara more than anything else, i think. And they did. But then Replica removed momentum from that wagon (1417), when Nacho was plausibly going to concede to that resolution (1316). They also had a juicy Farkran lynch available, if Chara wanted to put its weight back there. Amrun would have joined. Sparing town!hectic is a very bad outcome for them in d2, compared to the viable alternatives.

Hectic/Nacho, you are looking at it from the wrong perspective. If Nacho is scum with Hectic, he doesn't have to search through Hectic meta. He just has to ask Hectic in the PT for his scumgames. If you were scum, what would you do to plan for a spare on your partner? Would you just shout that he's town and nothing else?

I mean, it seems to me that very few people here -if any- are trying to think from a scum POV, instead assuming that scum players are inherently bad and/or lazy. Sometimes they are, people can just dislike playing scum, or cannot afford the time and effort required to be good scum. But i played scum twice so far, and both times i made tons and tons of planning with my partners. Excusing scum just because they are statistically bad is... not good practice, especially for slots that have a lot of experience with ms in general. Any argument that goes "eh, if i were scum i'd just play poorly, because i'm so much more awesome when i roll town" is not really compelling, nor believable.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:26 am

In post 1793, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1764, Farkran wrote:which is badly distributed confidence on reads.
What do you mean by this? Are you saying that you can't read me because you don't understand the confidence levels I possess (and that's additionally why you can't read Chemist)? Because if so that's an unexpected one but not the craziest one that I've ever heard from someone who doesn't know me?

Not really, i'm saying i think your confidence is misplaced. Your level of confidence is clear from your posts, even if you later adjust it, doesn't mean you weren't as confident when you post them. Whether this is scum indicative or not for you, i have yet to learn, but i would say that is more scumsided than townsided as a general behavior, statistically.

From chemist, i didn't like his defense of the lurkers, but that was back when i believed he would be scum with psyche. Aside from that, he was pushing you (roughly vanity, i'd think scum!him would have picked a better choice) which i don't dislike, and sparing me... which i can't say i like from a "good practice" standpoint, but it's not scum indicative from my pov. I understand it could be from yours, but i think me and chemist would have pretty much the same scum equity in this scenario.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:32 am

In post 1794, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1764, Farkran wrote:From what i have seen in your recent posting and past ISO, you have no reason to firmly townread any in {Chara, Bingle, Amrun, Chemist, Farkran, Replica}. Let's assume that you (used to) townread me based on tone and sincerity, perhaps Chara and Replica too, even though i don't particularly agree with Chara. Why do you pick Chemist over Bingle and Amrun as your top scumread? I understand that you are pairing him with both the other two, but if there is one important thing in this game is to lynch scum. This has been true ever since d1, but today even moreso.
Mmmmmmmm, not quite.
I pressed Chemist yesterday because he feels underwhelming and flat compared to the last game I played with him and because I thought I had an epiphany yesterday with the "oh he's just pushing those who were pushing the lurkers, it's a TMI push!". One of my many weaknesses as a player is that I tend to be a bit bipolar; I'll feel really super strong about something and then I'll temper it later or flip the opposite direction. You'll notice me fighting hard against this tendency today because it's the day we win the game.

At the moment, I'm not pairing shit for shit. I don't have a top scumread. When I get one I'll explain it and you'll know it and everything will be Groovy Tuesday.

Eh, i'd say this is also the day scum loses the game, so they would be fighting hard against it. Again, thinking from a scum point of view, their absolute highest priority would be dodging a scum lynch. Anything else goes, with preference to lynching town over sparing town AND sparing scum, if hectic is town. This is true just for today - if they can secure a town mislynch, they can no longer lose the game in a 3S/1F.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:35 am

In post 1795, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1764, Farkran wrote:why would that scum player also spare town!Hectic? Let's assume that it could work in d1 to pocket other people, but why would you pursue the same in d2, when you have already spared conftown
because you're scum in a pseudo-townblock and maintaining that townblock is more important than avoiding sparing town day 2 (because of the nature of Day 1, town basically got a free townspare. If you're scum that thinks you won't be able to let town get a single correct spare you're either a god amongst peasant or an arrogant idiot).

If you are scum in a pseudo-townbloc, you get spared. Why are you refusing so hard to consider this possibility as a scum strategy?

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:41 am

In post 1801, Bingle wrote:
In post 1799, Farkran wrote:Comments like this are really out of place coming from you specifically, being a heavy setup speculator yourself. Why do you find my posts a distraction, in this game specifically?
Because what we should have done isn't relevant? Your posts are already long and difficult to parse. Adding in things that don't matter makes it more tedious to read them, when it's already the case that you tend to multipost walls and make people want to disengage in the first place.

Note, I've been holding myself back from setup speccing unless it's directly relevant to what we're doing the same day. I've made few, if any, math walls this game, although I'm certainly able to.

It's relevant if my theory that scum would push for sparing their partner is correct. It's basically VCA, except... without the flip, which means we have to assume both alignments when reading into things. I have been clearly defending this point ever since i joined this game.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:44 am

In post 1809, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1768, Farkran wrote:
In post 1744, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.
Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?
It's like you have a crush on a girl but you're a bit shy, you know? When you're a little removed and just thinking about it you're focused on the possibility of how wonderful things will be if she says yes and you start a relationship together but then you actually are talking and you're nervous taking the plunge and all of the things you have to say go out the window. It's kind of like that.

I get what you're trying to say, but... this is not an answer to my question, it's just you describing your feelings. What interests me is what generated those sentiments in the first place. I doubt you would be shy for talking to us, so just out your thoughts. We're around valentine, you might get a crush message.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:00 am

In post 1827, Replica wrote:HEAL: Bingle

I'm really struggling right now in the reads department. This is the only one I feel solid on. I was able to understand/empathize with Chemist a lot more on a read through today, and I feel like choosing to engage with Farkran's points to the extent he did, and as critically but still open as he did, as scum would be difficult for him. I'm not confident in him being town but he's no longer in my desired lynchpool I think.

Chara's recent content has hashed out a lot but their reads don't really seem to be evolving in new or interesting ways. I kind of feel that, but it makes it tough to read. Amrun has been extremely difficult, all of her reads are very plausible. I don't like some of the Hectic progression, and Amrun instantly asking the leading questions (beginning in #274, continuing until I flexed a bit) to see if I would give her something to pounce on is worse in hindsight when I realize that it came shortly after her vote on Asriel (now Farkran)

I don't like my lynch preference right now. Farkran -> Amrun -> Nacho -> Chemist, where I can easily see both of Nacho/Amrun being town. I don't think I'd learn a lot from seeing only one of her/Nacho flip town, either, so I'm really not eager to lynch there.

I feel like I'm wrong somewhere and I don't like it. My fear is that it's on one of Farkran/Chara/Hectic.

I wonder if i have been correct with my initial push on Replica back in d1. I have been clashing with him since forever, but i thought the conviction and passion displayed were genuine and i was just being unable to see eye to eye with him. I have been in games where i had very strong TvT fights, where i hated pretty much all of a specific player's post, only to have them become conftown by death. I thought this was very likely going to be one of those cases.

This post, however, i... just cannot stand. Are you saying that you need a flip, now of all times, because you are unsure of your previous reads on Farkran/Hectic/Chara? Like, i have been fighting with those two for one day and a half, you were 101% certain of which side you should have taken, and

today

you are doubting your massive confidence in it? After Hectic was spared? Please tell me, what happened that changed your mind so much, when yesterday you were confident enough to change your spare of Bingle into a spare of Hectic for the SPECIFIC PURPOSE of not resolving the day in a flip. You could have easily unvoted your spare and get a Farkran flip. Chara would have gladly rejoined my wagon. Amrun would have joined. Even i would have joined, and it's not like i didn't say it.

Why did you spare Hectic? Give me a full explanation of your townread of hectic. A detailed post about what caused you to trust him so much as to compromise on sparing him instead of lynching me yesterday.

And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing

both

.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:23 am

Currently i hate Nacho's and Replica's posturing but i cannot see them as SvS. I hate Chara's progression from d1 eod until now. I am unsure whether Amrun has any clue about what to do and i'm starting to be concerned about her not having a clear read after a 3 days long rehash of the same thing. Bingle and Chemist are now probably my highest townreads, one of them has just started producing useful content and the other is MIA since forever.

I am also concerned whether or not i have been correct about Hectic/Chara, at this point. I feel that scum is trying to manipulate the gamestate into achieving a favorable lylo where they can cash in on the pocketed spared players, but at the same time saving the opportunity to turn against them by suddenly reconsidering all their previous reads today, then consolidating that move by achieving a mislynch which would explain how Hectic could be actually scum - i.e. me - and go "oh shit we have been wrong all along!" into lylo. This would point to town!Hectic, remains unchanged for scum!Nacho and scum!Chara, open the doors for scum!Replica and scum!Amrun.

I'm not sure if i want to buy this explanation over scum!Hectic, but it sure is a gamestate i don't like, and it wouldn't be fixed with a Farkran lynch

today

. I want to reread sherlock and psyche ISO.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:43 am

Replica, if you are town, you are just bad at this game. I too am tired to read your not-so-faintly offensive posts about me. Unfortunately there is actually a significant chance that you are still town. None of the kills suit scum!you, none of the spares make more sense for scum!you than any of {Chara, Nacho, Amrun}.

Just explain to me what changed your mind about Hectic and Chara.

pedit: Amrun, you had your chance yesterday. Today we lynch Chara or Nacho. Any other lynch is pointless at this moment.

pedit2: yeah. What changed your confidence in Hectic?

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:46 am

In post 1842, Farkran wrote:yeah. What changed your confidence in Hectic?

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 12:23 pm

In post 1846, Bingle wrote:
In post 1815, Farkran wrote:Snip
Rep/Fark is a team I didn't analyze very thoroughly but looking back you have a point. (I mostly glossed over the Rep teams because of the individual towniness of Rep. It's also why he was so early in the list.)

I think you're mistaking trying to think from a scum POV and trying to think "What would I do here as scum." There are players who scheme and are methodical as scum. They're not the norm. Neither Hectic or Chara fit into that perspective from what I know of them, and I've played with both of them quite a few times (although admittedly I know Chara's style mostly from it hydraing with A50.) The idea that either of them would choose "Let's draw attention to the one of us who isn't being spared by having them delay the wagon on the other who WON'T flip when the spare goes through in the hopes of towncred should either of us be lynched later" is very :/ both because it presumes that they are an entirely different type of player than I think they are (and I don't think either is hard to get a bead on in that sense) AND it's a very unlikely bit of towncred to go hunting for. At best, it helps Hectic if we lynch Chara and it flips red. At worst, it prevents Chara spare.

Similarly, Replica/Chara is a team you're discounting based on what you would do in that position, and I doubt fully that you have a good enough bead on Rep's style to say for sure what he'd try to do as scum generally, let alone in a specific situation. I also disagree wholeheartedly that "it would be easy to get a Farkran lynch through". You were being voted by Hectic, and Hectic alone. Chara/Rep could have swung to you, sure, but that does not a wagon make. A large portion of the town wanted a spare regardless. I was townreading you, and I think Amrun/Psyche/Nacho etc had all expressed some degree of "I disagree but think he's town anyway." wrt your slot. I'm also not sure how Nacho doubling down on his townread on Hectic and then immediately getting a vote for his wagon (from me) in any way indicates he's going to be willing to spare a weaker townread who is being pushed as scum by exactly the same person as his stronger townread.

Nacho/Hectic being a result of Nacho asking Hectic for his scumgames is a world where Nacho asks Hectic for his scumgames to use as meta, finds out his buddy is bad at scum, and then chooses to doubledown on his buddy being able to maintain a strong enough townread to be spared. Unless you think that Nacho's meta is faked (and I don't see any arguments that it is) then that's a frankly baffling method to take.

As far as how I would go about getting a partner spared? I wouldn't commit to a strategy like that in the early game. I play a reactive scumgame unless there is a clear reason not to (see role call and a mechwin on D3). The most important thing for scum in this setup is to ensure the first lynch is on town. All other concerns are secondary. If one of you is townread enough to get spared, go for it, otherwise play normally and respond to what the thread is putting out. Locking yourself in to a course of action just means you react woodenly when things come up.

Well, it prevented a Chara spare so much that it was the top spare wagon for a while, during d2. But i guess i really, really have different standards about how scum would think and play, because you can't ALL have rolled scum and contrast my every post, every time, in every game. Apparently fame and reputation go miles ahead than logic and good play, because i have seen TOWN players achieving flash lynches against TOWN literally within 24 hours of their rep-in, just because they asked.

I'd very much like to know who Replica is, because none of what he's doing make sense yet i cannot still have him as my highest scumread in this game. Regardless, i don't think i have ever played with his main. I would remember.

A Farkran flip would have been very easy to obtain both d1 and d2 anyways, and i hate how people are suddenly reconsidering their reads in favor of my flip today, right after Hectic has been spared, when literally nothing happened that could change d1 OR d2 reads wrt both me and Hectic. I am looking forward to see how Nacho and Chara will react around this.

In the meanwhile, good night i guess, since Replica isn't deigning to answer my question.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:32 pm

In post 1853, Replica wrote:The best part of this is I answered Farkran's question twice and he still didn't realize it.

No, you didn't.

You only said that you weren't confident in the first place, yet you spared him nonetheless.

In post 1829, Farkran wrote:
In post 1827, Replica wrote:HEAL: Bingle

I'm really struggling right now in the reads department. This is the only one I feel solid on. I was able to understand/empathize with Chemist a lot more on a read through today, and I feel like choosing to engage with Farkran's points to the extent he did, and as critically but still open as he did, as scum would be difficult for him. I'm not confident in him being town but he's no longer in my desired lynchpool I think.

Chara's recent content has hashed out a lot but their reads don't really seem to be evolving in new or interesting ways. I kind of feel that, but it makes it tough to read. Amrun has been extremely difficult, all of her reads are very plausible. I don't like some of the Hectic progression, and Amrun instantly asking the leading questions (beginning in #274, continuing until I flexed a bit) to see if I would give her something to pounce on is worse in hindsight when I realize that it came shortly after her vote on Asriel (now Farkran)

I don't like my lynch preference right now. Farkran -> Amrun -> Nacho -> Chemist, where I can easily see both of Nacho/Amrun being town. I don't think I'd learn a lot from seeing only one of her/Nacho flip town, either, so I'm really not eager to lynch there.

I feel like I'm wrong somewhere and I don't like it. My fear is that it's on one of Farkran/Chara/Hectic.
I wonder if i have been correct with my initial push on Replica back in d1. I have been clashing with him since forever, but i thought the conviction and passion displayed were genuine and i was just being unable to see eye to eye with him. I have been in games where i had very strong TvT fights, where i hated pretty much all of a specific player's post, only to have them become conftown by death. I thought this was very likely going to be one of those cases.

This post, however, i... just cannot stand. Are you saying that you need a flip, now of all times, because you are unsure of your previous reads on Farkran/Hectic/Chara? Like, i have been fighting with those two for one day and a half, you were 101% certain of which side you should have taken, and
today
you are doubting your massive confidence in it? After Hectic was spared? Please tell me, what happened that changed your mind so much, when yesterday you were confident enough to change your spare of Bingle into a spare of Hectic for the SPECIFIC PURPOSE of not resolving the day in a flip. You could have easily unvoted your spare and get a Farkran flip. Chara would have gladly rejoined my wagon. Amrun would have joined. Even i would have joined, and it's not like i didn't say it.

Why did you spare Hectic? Give me a full explanation of your townread of hectic. A detailed post about what caused you to trust him so much as to compromise on sparing him instead of lynching me yesterday.

And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing
both
.

This is the post you need to answer and you have failed to answer, choosing to shade me instead.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:35 pm

In post 1856, Replica wrote:
In post 1841, Amrun wrote:I don’t think there’s a question he’s working backwards, just whether or not it’s AI.
I'm sorry, what? This is one of the few things I think is 100% broadly scum

No. This isn't true in the first place, and if you meta'ed me properly you'd know what i am talking about. The inductive vs deductive reasoning debate is not born today.

I forgot where i talked about it, but it's easily found running a search for "inductive" in my post history. Turns out it was in my scumgame, which you claim to have read.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:44 pm

Actually Amrun, what's your scumcase on me over Bingle, Chemist, Nacho or Replica? Because what i have been reading up to this point is doubt towards my slot, but i don't find any reason to PoE me in your posts, except for townleaning Chara because you agree with it - yet posturing against it too.

In particular, i want to know why you are voting for me today instead of pursuing my flip during the earlier days. Let me understand what makes you think that today i am a good lynch as opposed to d1 or d2.

Farkran · Mon Feb 17, 2020 11:57 pm

In post 1869, Bingle wrote:Amrun Case

I don't entirely think the second part ("make your case") is true, and that's what i'd like to understand from Amrun. My problem with her - but really not just her - today is that she specifically has NOT chosen the path of least resistance in d2, and walked back from that same path during d1.

I was, and have been, a really easy lynch for the whole game, yet i am being voted today of all times. Nacho entered the day posturing against me. Replica has always been scumreading me, this is no news - but that post about "plausibly reconsidering" his reads is awfully bad to make today.

As a consequence, instead of wondering why these posts are appearing all of a sudden, Amrun is walking the path of least resistance exactly right now, not any day where my flip would have been useful for a town solve.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:10 am

In post 1876, Amrun wrote:I would fight here. Completely fine with it.

What slots wouldn't you be fine with lynching today?

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:15 am

In post 1834, Chara wrote:
In post 1829, Farkran wrote:And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.
this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.

Do you think Replica answered?

If so, what was your question to me?

Also, what do you think of the current gamestate?

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:04 am

In post 1890, Nachomamma8 wrote:Actually no I don't want nor need an answer. I'm not scumreading you. Stop acting like I am.

Never said you are. I said you are preparing yourself to allow a compromise on my lynch when this day nears the deadline, and make it seems you had a progression on me, when yesterday you weren't and i don't see any reason for you to change your stance on that. This is what i am concerned about, not that you are scumreading me right now. A better answer than 1809 would be appreciated.

If this is not the proper meaning of the word "posturing", sorry. I am still not accustomed to all the ms vocabulary. But this is what i meant.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 2:19 am

In post 1888, Amrun wrote:
In post 1884, Farkran wrote:Actually Amrun, what's your scumcase on me over Bingle, Chemist, Nacho or Replica? Because what i have been reading up to this point is doubt towards my slot, but i don't find any reason to PoE me in your posts, except for townleaning Chara because you agree with it - yet posturing against it too.

In particular, i want to know why you are voting for me today instead of pursuing my flip during the earlier days. Let me understand what makes you think that today i am a good lynch as opposed to d1 or d2.
I don’t have one! I just think it’s viable. I’m not getting my Bingle lynch, clearly. I think there has been a lot of discussion surrounding you this game day that would make your flip informative, one way or the other.

I can create maybe just as many scenarios in my head of you being town as you being scum. If I had a strong scumread in me for this game, you all would never hear me shut up about it, but that’s not the case.

I want to fight in {Bingle, Farkran, Chemist} today. Anything outside of that I’m not interested in.

The part about wanting to lynch in that group, and the part about my flip being plenty of info, i can understand and i also agree that from a pov different than my own, that trio can have scum equity.

The part i do not understand is why you haven't been pushing me earlier, when it would have been viable and useful - instead you started pushing Bingle and ended up doing nothing - as opposed to today, where you started pushing me first after you have seen a progression swing from Nacho (start of d3 ISO) and Bingle (1758). What changed your lynch priority order besides me looking "easier"? How would my flip help you today? It's not even that i disagree that it would help, but i wanna know your perspective about it.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:14 am

In post 1899, Replica wrote:
In post 1883, Farkran wrote:The inductive vs deductive reasoning debate is not born today.
Starting with a desired conclusion then gathering evidence is not inductive inference/reasoning.

1. What does "desired" mean to you? How does reading posts from different povs imply that i "desire" those post to be scummy? Is there anyone i didn't apply such method?

2. Did i hardpush anyone based on any "desired" conclusion? Because a similar argument happened during d2 too, and i don't recall changing my gamesolve based on the analysis of new theories. I have been asking questions, sometimes they were answered, sometimes they weren't.

I am still waiting on your answer, and Nacho's.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:19 am

In post 1897, Amrun wrote:
In post 1895, Farkran wrote:
In post 1888, Amrun wrote:
In post 1884, Farkran wrote:Actually Amrun, what's your scumcase on me over Bingle, Chemist, Nacho or Replica? Because what i have been reading up to this point is doubt towards my slot, but i don't find any reason to PoE me in your posts, except for townleaning Chara because you agree with it - yet posturing against it too.

In particular, i want to know why you are voting for me today instead of pursuing my flip during the earlier days. Let me understand what makes you think that today i am a good lynch as opposed to d1 or d2.
I don’t have one! I just think it’s viable. I’m not getting my Bingle lynch, clearly. I think there has been a lot of discussion surrounding you this game day that would make your flip informative, one way or the other.

I can create maybe just as many scenarios in my head of you being town as you being scum. If I had a strong scumread in me for this game, you all would never hear me shut up about it, but that’s not the case.

I want to fight in {Bingle, Farkran, Chemist} today. Anything outside of that I’m not interested in.
The part about wanting to lynch in that group, and the part about my flip being plenty of info, i can understand and i also agree that from a pov different than my own, that trio can have scum equity.

The part i do not understand is why you haven't been pushing me earlier, when it would have been viable and useful - instead you started pushing Bingle and ended up doing nothing - as opposed to today, where you started pushing me first after you have seen a progression swing from Nacho (start of d3 ISO) and Bingle (1758). What changed your lynch priority order besides me looking "easier"? How would my flip help you today? It's not even that i disagree that it would help, but i wanna know your perspective about it.
For at least most of yesterday, I decided I townread you. I also had some sort of delusion that I could make Bingle lynch happen (clearly not).

With a couple of viable pairings (to me) taken off the table with Psyche’s death, and deciding that I think Nacho is probably town after all, my PoE narrows.

That’s kinda it, really. My heart has been fickle this game.

What were those viable pairings, and why do you think Nacho is town?

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:39 am

In post 1902, Replica wrote:#802, #996, #1608, #1840

Yeah. All of those posts are you declaring what i am doing, not what i am actually doing.

Name a slot that i haven't been reading from both povs in mind, and tell me exactly where i have been pushing for a desired conclusion rather than an inferred one based on the gamestate, or -viceversa- where i have been directing my townreads and scumreads based on conveniency rather than genuine thinking. You weren't scumreading me when i voted you, if i recall correct. Nacho was not scumreading me yesterday, when i reconsidered him. Chara was not scumreading me when i started voting it. Amrun, on the other hand, WAS scumleaning me when i had her as one of my highest townreads, back at the time - then she progressed her read on me, and i did the same.

If you started reading my posts, rather than just fixating yourself on reading the name of who written them and then say "oh, here it is, another shitpost from the same guy", everyone would be happy.

Since you say you think it is an effort to reread my wall posts, despite

your

ISO being made mostly by nested links - like that would be in any way easier - i'll make a brief recap to you:

I have been scumreading ALL slots in the game at some point. I have found scum motivation in pretty much EVERY post that i read. Ultimately though, some of those made sense, some didn't. Some were worth questioning further, some i deemed as paranoia and let them go. This is because some explanations fit with the other pieces of the puzzle, some others do not. I keep those who can form a shapely figure, and i discard those that clash with their adjacent pieces. For example, your slot has a lot of instances that are scummy if taken in a vacuum, but the gamestate as a whole wouldn't be explained -properly- by scum!Replica. The same is true for Chemist and the Almidia/Bingle succession, and for Amrun. Hectic, Chara and Nacho are still the slots that i could explain the whole gamestate with, if they are scum.

That's how i play, in every game, as both alignments. Which is why i am not denying

your

plausible scumread of me, but i want to know what puts me below the other slots and/or what made you change your mind about the Hectic/Chara/Farkran trio today of all times.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:26 am

In post 1906, Replica wrote:#989 pretty decisively rules out that you reached the conclusion you did from reading my ISO. This is not looking at it from both viewpoints. You further claimed that "you couldn't miss [the conclusion]" if you read my ISO, making this even more of a joke.

The links you're replying to, #802, #1608, #1840, all very clearly point to specific instances, not just broad trends. #1319 goes further on why I perceived your push as opportunistic.

Links are generally made for reference materials and brevity. Rehashing the exact same argument, quoting past posts extensively, and responding to you in general, given your 5 second attention span, refusal to search for an answer yourself even when I have indicated repeatedly where it can be found, have all bloated the game and made it harder for others to engage in meaningful ways. I am actively hurting us all every time I bother to respond to you.

None of the quoted posts point at me adjusting my reads based on conveniency though, and they clearly show how you are reading only things that are convenient to further your case of me. This is evident in all the posts you quoted. You should learn to read context, it will be a useful skill in the future.

I have been saying a million times that i think there is scum on my wagon, and all the instances where i was voting people outside it were when i was trying to read the game from town!hectic pov, after sujimichi slipped and i was townleaning amrun - which made me try to look at the game from a "my wagon is entirely town" perspective. Around the same time i was also scumreading Chemist, who was townreading both Asriel and me; and i considered a Psyche/Chemist solve as my favorite guess. Then d2 and the Chara thing happened.

Nothing that you have said in your posts directed at me is even close to demonstrate that my reads are opportunistically tailored to favor my scum agenda. You are quoting pieces of my ISO literally without any context and you are making absolutely no attempt to sort my slot.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:40 am

In post 1907, Chara wrote:
In post 1887, Farkran wrote:
In post 1834, Chara wrote:
In post 1829, Farkran wrote:And then tell me what demolished your confidence today, because the only relevant difference that i can see is Psyche's death, which has nothing to do with me or Hectic since he voted for sparing both.
this is a reminder that i have a question for you after Replica has answered this.
Do you think Replica answered?

If so, what was your question to me?

Also, what do you think of the current gamestate?
i don't think Replica answered in response to this, but i didn't want to affect the interaction right then. given his followups i believe Replica is of the opinion he did already answer, and i have to agree. the answer being that his confidence was not "demolished today" given he did not have that confidence day 2, either.

What's your interpretation of post 1827? How do you not assume that him afraid he's wrong on his read of me/you/hectic is a demolition - hyperbolically speaking, of course - of his previous confidence on you and me at least, if not Hectic? I would still think that you shouldn't spare where you aren't confident to hit on town, but we're talking about Replica so i'll concede that he'd spare people even in the face of scum equity. That doesn't explain WHAT changed his reads today, and HOW he is still throwing shit at me even when post 1827 is actually in my favor despite the subsequent hurt vote. The vote is not what i disliked in that series of posts, for anyone who was wondering.

In post 1907, Chara wrote: my question to you was this: your post here implies a belief that concrete flips are the only source of information worth changing opinions over. is this a fair statement?

No, of course not. But they are a solid, reliable source of info that shouldn't be ignored, especially when you aren't confident in your reads enough to do otherwise. If the gamestate is stalling and you do not have a clear view of what scum is doing, it means scum is likely doing good (or town is doing very bad), and this usually implies that you can't have reliable reads on tone/content/progression analysis only. That's when you need a flip.

In post 1907, Chara wrote: current gamestate: i don't have the best sense of it honestly. i currently think we're sitting on two town spares and that both scum are in Nacho/Farkran/Chemist. if Amrun is scum she isn't trying to be spared and if Bingle is scum then i don't think Replica would be having quite as tough a time making that happen.
i'm aware going for mislynches is as valid a strategy, so no need to bring that up. reexamining Amrun is lower priority than Nacho but probably easier. Bingle and Amrun are never aligned but i imagine that's really obvious.

Talk to me more about your Nacho read, please.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:46 am

In post 1909, Replica wrote:Ah, yes, the old "That isn't ACTUALLY evidence of what you think, because you are wrong" defense

Oh, sorry. I forgot the only way to engage with you is to agree with you even when presented with hard evidence that you did NOT read my posts in context, instead accumulating circumstantial nonsense to go even deeper in your tunnel.

Otherwise you refuse to address the simplest of questions with a straight answer. Keep it up, you're doing great.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:47 am

In post 1912, Chara wrote:haven't read the rest of that post Farkran but please check my ISO for Nacho. i remember saying a few times that i want to concentrate on him because i don't have a read.

I will. And i'll be waiting on the results of your concentration on Nacho.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 7:20 am

In post 1897, Amrun wrote: With a couple of viable pairings (to me) taken off the table with Psyche’s death, and deciding that I think Nacho is probably town after all, my PoE narrows.

Oh, i meant those you mentioned in this post.

Yes, i know Bingle/Farkran is your solve - i was just wondering why you didn't try to push me yesterday, when today you immediately sheeped Replica on my wagon. I had two votes yesterday too, and with my own i reached 3 (though for only a brief period, because psyche countered that by sparing hectic, but i did say i would help if needed), and Chara could have rejoined.

Why did you think i wouldn't be viable yesterday? I might have been more viable than Bingle, actually. What concerns me about you is what made you change your mind on that. I can only see Nacho's swing as a difference, and i don't see why that would change a thing in your perspective about me.

Wrt nacho himself, yes it may seem that he's sorting me. But i'm taking issue with the timing of this. Today is the day where scum could lose by lynching one of them - this is the day where you narrow your pool, not when you broaden it. I would have been fine with my lynch d1 or d2, said that many times, offered more than one opportunity to get a flip. I produced tons of content, generated tons of interactions. Why townreading me until he achieved the spare on hectic, and then starting a reconsideration on me today?

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:18 am

In post 1918, Amrun wrote:Farkran, if it’s normal for my PoE to be my narrowing, why are you questioning my PoE narrowing?

I asked you a different thing: why are you pushing me today instead of yesterday?

The comment about PoE narrowing is about Nacho, not you.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:05 am

But why did Psyche death make you narrow your PoE? That was also part of the original question.

In post 1897, Amrun wrote: With a couple of viable pairings (to me) taken off the table with Psyche’s death, and deciding that I think Nacho is probably town after all, my PoE narrows.

Which ultimately leads to: what happened that made you put me closer to the scum side of your spectrum? I hear you said it "pings" you, but i'd rather you elaborate more in detail, about what teams have been shut off by Psyche death and how Psyche death raises the bar on my scum equity specifically.

Lastly, i guess i can word this better if i haven't been clear with my previous posts: i understand that you would rather have had Bingle yesterday, but i am not more viable today than i was yesterday, except for Nacho's -apparent- willingness to compromise on me which he didn't have in d2. The two things together (you and nacho re-positioning your lynch priority and confidence in reads) are what worries me right now about you, specifically. I was already not trusting Nacho for his misplaced confidence on Hectic, i think i have talked enough about it yesterday.

Farkran · Tue Feb 18, 2020 12:04 pm

Ok, point taken about my viability as a lynch. I disagree, but i can understand your answer. Does this make you scummy? Eh. Maybe, but the important point to me was whether i could place you in team with Hectic, or if i had to reconsider scum!Hectic by placing you in a team with Nacho. I really don't think you can be teamed with Chara, and i don't want to lynch you before either of those two.

I don't know how to word my question better about the Psyche bit. Why does ruling out teams that involve Psyche narrow your pool around me? I mean... would you have considered Bingle/Psyche but not Farkran/Psyche, for example? At this point it's just out of curiosity, i kinda had my answer wrt your push on me. I think scum!Amrun in this game would only be teamed up with Nacho (makes sense), Chemist or Bingle (neither make sense).

I wish i could disagree about Replica being town, but unfortunately i don't. I still think scum is in Hectic > Nacho/Chara > Amrun. Particularly, i think that the way Bingle and Chemist played during late d2 is strongly town indicative for them, which is compatible with Chemist and Almidia not willing to wagon me during d1 - this might be a staple for a Farkran/{Bingle, Chemist} solve, but to me it is evidence for those specific slots not pushing any scum agenda with their actions.

I'd like to hear Chara about Nacho, and Nacho's continuation of his re-examining.

Farkran · Wed Feb 19, 2020 1:15 am

I read the new hectic scumgame, that ended in his victory. It's very different than this hectic, but i don't see anything that could stray off his current play range. If you remove the easily inspired gimmicking that comes from the undertale lore, what other solid differences are there?

If anything, i think that game's chemist is also vastly different than this game. But chemist town meta in theme/very active games is consistent with what i know from him, so i don't think it's AI, and if chemist is scum i'd have a lot of issues with his d2 play in this game.

Question 1: now that the Pine lurker slot has been conftowned by death, why did scum!chemist defend the lurkers?

Question 2: if i am scum, what was my partner doing during d1? Because i think we all agree that, spare or fight routes alike, have one immediately evident thing in common: lynched scum is even more disastrous for their team than it would be in a standard game.

Question 3: what slots have been the easiest to spare, or to lynch, for every single day so far?

Questions are open to everyone.

Farkran · Wed Feb 19, 2020 2:31 am

In post 1955, Amrun wrote:Question 1: to obfuscate lurker asriel scum is one explanation

Question 2: what do you mean? Your slot wasn’t universally scumread at any point. Plus it would be easy to front when it was obvious we’d end up sparing.

Question 3: no slots have been easy to lynch - not a single one. Hectic was easiest to spare. I think Replica would be easier to sore today.

Wrt 1, sure, i agree. Which means Chemist is only ever scum if he is partnered with me specifically.

Wrt 2, as of VC 1.5 to 1.7 what you said is not true - which is also a very weird behavior for scum!you by the way, you could have pushed more for asriel lynch back in d1 instead of joining hectic wagon. Do you believe the asriel wagon was all town though?

Wrt 3, i disagree about there not being easy lynches. I have been very easy all days, but a hectic spare was always prioritized.

Farkran · Thu Feb 20, 2020 2:03 am

Bingle, do you think too that the wagon against asriel was full town?

Farkran · Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:02 am

In post 1963, Bingle wrote:
In post 353, popsofctown wrote:Asriel Dreemurr ----------------------- (4) Nachomamma8, Amrun, Sujimichi, Chara
My working assumption is that this list contains exactly one scum. Why?

Wondering why you aren't working from there instead of going through chemist first. What makes you think people will compromise on chemist more than they would compromise on amrun? What are you going to do if chemist flips town?

Farkran · Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:42 am

In post 1967, Amrun wrote:I’m here but I don’t know what else to say. Frustrated with this game.

I share this sentiment. Do you know if it's common for Chara and Nacho to miss the "heat of the battle" as any alignment?

Farkran · Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:27 am

3 days to deadline - is this correct, or without the 48h extension granted for Chara's V/LA? Based on how it was described in VC 3.0, i would assume those 48h are already calculated in the current countdown.

I am still waiting for Nacho, mostly. I might want to shift my vote to there based on the recent Chara. Even if V/LA, it has been present more than enough to cast a vote on me if it wanted to give deadly momentum to my wagon, given that the deadline is approaching quickly and the game is stalling.

Meanwhile, one more question open to everyone: where will you look if i flip green? How does this change your view of the game? This applies to people who are voting me as well as those who aren't.

To Bingle specifically: where do you look if Chemist flips green? Amrun and ???

I am assuming that Amrun is shipping a Bingle/Farkran solve, Replica is assuming a Farkran/Nacho (maybe Amrun?) solve, Bingle is pushing Amrun/Chemist, Chara = Farkran/{Nacho, Chemist}. Chemist, i remember him pushing Nacho, probably with Bingle (1759) or maybe Chara (1659). I'm really interested in hearing Nacho's solve for today.

Farkran · Fri Feb 21, 2020 7:28 am

Actually you know what

HURT: Nacho let's see what happens next.

Question to chemist: what made you change your mind from d2 hurt Nacho to d3 hurt Bingle?

Farkran · Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:21 am

In post 1971, Replica wrote:Chemist, man, this is literally your time to shine as town. If a lynch happens today, it is most likely to be on you or Farkran. If you don't get lynched, you will definitely not be nightkilled.

All of the town is looking to you right now for new perspective and content. We're looking to you to take this game to the next stage.

Literally scum is counting on you to just do nothing, halfass your reads, and be lynchbait. Please do not let this happen.

In post 1993, Replica wrote:Nacho, man, this is literally your time to shine as town. If a lynch happens today, it is most likely to be on you or Farkran. If you don't get lynched, you will definitely not be nightkilled.

All of the town is looking to you right now for new perspective and content. We're looking to you to take this game to the next stage.

Literally scum is counting on you to just do nothing, halfass your reads, and be lynchbait. Please do not let this happen.

Does anyone know Replica's main? Would it really be within his scumrange to display genuine frustration at slots who attack him? I'm trying to discern if there is really a reason to townread powerwolf!Replica besides tone and sparing too many people that could be town. I mean... Replica's correctness/actions ratio could potentially be very high if Hectic and Bingle are town (provided that he's pushing a spare-based solve), but the correctness/words ratio is definitely not for many reasons that i went over so many times now. The quoted posts are obviously a joking self-reference, but they still ping me the wrong way, in the sense that Replica is always trying to lead the gamestate to absurd conclusions. I mean, it's quite clear that he doesn't have a clue where scum is - even if i flip red, he offered no reasonable candidate for a partnership, because rather honestly only Bingle and Chemist would be valid as candidates and Replica doesn't want to lynch either.

Assuming town!Hectic, he also tried to spare Chara and Bingle. If Bingle is town and sparing vanity vote - because i mean, honestly, Bingle never had any spare equity - does Replica/Chara make sense? Chara had spare equity at some point during d2, but more people were wanting Hectic. I still think a Chara spare would have been very much achievable in this scenario though. A valid alternative would have been lynching me, but Chara removed momentum from my wagon... why? @Chara why did you unvote me back in d2? You never seemed convinced that i was town, if i recall correct.

Replica/Amrun? Both were voting Hectic d1, but in d2 Amrun didn't spare. They pushed the opposite sides of Bingle instead, but neither really had any relevant chance to succeed. Scum!Amrun would have had a lot more chances lynching Farkran, same as Chara.

Replica/{Bingle, Chemist, Nacho} suffer from the same exact fault - everyone would have such an easy time lynching me in d2 that i don't understand why they would allow a Hectic spare in its place.

Bah. Once again the only available explanation for scum!Replica is scum!Hectic. If this is the case, i guess Replica could just compromise on anything that isn't his own lynch at this point, and a Replica lynch is as distant as things could go in this game. And he still isn't scummier than Nacho or Chara, if we talk about VC 2.7 compared to 1.7

Farkran · Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:36 am

The more i try to re-examine things, the more i can't see a gamestate where Hectic is not scum. Hectic has always been on his own spare wagons, and {Nacho > Replica = Chara > Amrun} have been orbiting around that wagon trying to make it succeed at some point, even in the face of easier lynch alternatives on me, both d1 and d2. I cannot possibly think that scum allowed a town spare when they had such an easy town lynch available. This applies to pretty much everyone who is still alive in the game. There is just no reason to let the Hectic spare happen from a scum point of view. The only teams that make sense are Farkran/{Chemist, Bingle} and it's... just not possible.

Replica, Chemist and Almidia could have voted Asriel/Fark d1. Chemist, Bingle, Amrun, Nacho, Chara could have voted Fark d2. Why did a Hectic spare happen? Why did Hectic quickspare his own wagon in d2 - when there was no risk for the FN to be outed - while he waited in d1?

It just does not make sense. Hectic has to be scum, and the partner is very likely among {Nacho, Chara}. Maybe Replica. If you are compromising on me, these are pretty much my last words, i really don't think i have anything to add to this game.

Farkran · Fri Feb 21, 2020 12:34 pm

In post 2002, Bingle wrote:
In post 1966, Farkran wrote:Wondering why you aren't working from there instead of going through chemist first. What makes you think people will compromise on chemist more than they would compromise on amrun? What are you going to do if chemist flips town?
Exactly 1 scum in {Asriel/Nacho/Amrun/Chara} also implies 1 scum in {Chem/Bingle/Rep(/Hectic I guess)}. I'm hard tr-ing Rep.

Do you disagree with my thought that scum doesn't doublevote a policy lurker wagon very often in micros?

Also, if Chem flips town, I reevaluate with the dual flips and an additional wagon and come at tomorrow looking to lynch and assuming I get flipped before endgame.

How is Chem scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara though? Asriel was their target, not part of the wagon

Why would scum!chem with a non-Asriel partner allow a spare instead of pushing a mislynch on town!Asriel? I mean, Chemist was sparing Asriel back in d1. Towncred is ok, but why would you allow the day to end in a spare that is not your partner when you can push a better alternative without looking scummy?

Farkran · Sat Feb 22, 2020 12:27 am

In post 2007, Bingle wrote:
In post 2003, Farkran wrote:How is Chem scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara though? Asriel was their target, not part of the wagon

Why would scum!chem with a non-Asriel partner allow a spare instead of pushing a mislynch on town!Asriel? I mean, Chemist was sparing Asriel back in d1. Towncred is ok, but why would you allow the day to end in a spare that is not your partner when you can push a better alternative without looking scummy?

In post 2003, Farkran wrote:How is Chem scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara though? Asriel was their target, not part of the wagon
What?

I've explained why I think Asriel (you) isn't scum with Nacho/Amrun/Chara. I just explained why I don't think Nacho/Amrun/Chara are scum together.

If you're arguing Chem would have pushed the lynch through, why? Burning towncred by 180-ing on his lurker stance to get a low value lurker lynch through would be pretty dumb there, tbh. If you're arguing he should have done so after you replaced in that would have been the opposite.

This was still early game, and most semi competent players aren't going to be looking to get any mislynch that comes around but rather to set up their team for townreads. I find it unlikely that both scum would commit to a lurker push like that, so assuming I would think that someone is town because they're not aligning themselves perfectly with the reads of other potential players is at the very least batshit.

Similarly, why would vanity sparing the lurker wagon not be a scum move if he thought the wagon would flip on town? Being publicly against a town wagon seems like exactly the kind of thing scum would want. Or is the insistence that the Asriel wagon wouldn't have gone through without Chem's support?

I mean - i can follow how Chemist is partner with Asriel, but i cannot follow how Chemist is partner with anyone else, not just those on asriel wagon. I don't think chemist would have had any issues lynching Asriel, or changing his read when Farkran replaced in. Allowing a town spare on Hectic in both d1 and d2 is not good practice for any scumteam not including Hectic himself. While i think that sparing is one of the most powerful weapons for scum, it's dangerous if you allow town to spare players that you know to be town.

Your reasoning about towncred would be correct in a standard game where you would be forced to lynch *someone*, therefore being off a town wagon will make you look better - but it's different in this game. Allowing 1 town spare is kinda ok, but would you allow two? Why does scum!Chemist spare Farkran d2? Would you have done that, as scum, instead of revisiting your reads and lynch me instead?

Farkran · Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:59 pm

In post 2018, Bingle wrote:Fark, I don't think you can manage a Nacho lynch this close to the deadline. Of the options of sparing me, lynching you and lynching Chem which do you prefer?

I can't manage a Nacho lynch because nobody can see that hectic is scum in literally every possible scenario where i am not scum.

Your question is a bit loaded, you just asked me how i want to lose the game.

If i had to chose which of those three options is the least likely leading to a town loss that'd be lynch farkran, but today isn't the day where such resolution would be useful.

Farkran · Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:14 pm

I cannot get over how Replica has been more stubborn, more wrong and more unpleasant than me this game. Every single post is offensive, based on stupid premises, and hasn't changed his mind ever since d1 eod, riding along veiled insults to get his point through instead of analyzing the setup and gamestate.

I actually should give him more credit and consider him as a scum solve. Scum is in Hectic & Nacho > Chara > Replica anyways. Sparing 4 is probably better for them over lynch town, so just don't do that.

I'm fine with anything else at this point.

Farkran · Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:06 am

HURT: chemist

Better than a spare.

Farkran · Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:10 am

By the way things went, this will flip town and nacho is scum. But good luck with that, tomorrow will be another town lynch unless you start listening to reason

Farkran · Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:55 am

You haven't been reading my posts, Replica. Not even once. You picked what was convenient to further your tunnel on me and ignored the rest. I am not happy about how things went d2 and d3, i feel at least half of the town has been pocketed by hectic and the othet half just refused to commit to effort. You might be scum, but your tone is typical of wrong town. If you made even the smallest effort to understand my point of view, you would realize.

By the way, if you do not want to be offensive, stop saying that my posts are scum theatrical for no reason at all. You fail to understand that by calling my reads "terrible" and my slot basically lynchbait, you're insulting my townplay. If i am scum, you went around more than once saying how mine was bad execution. There is now world where you have been pleasant to my playstyle except for the first couple exchanges we had back in d1, out of which i scumread you, until you entered the darkest and deepest omgus tunnel ever.

Farkran · Sun Feb 23, 2020 4:59 am

Exactly my point. Thanks.

Farkran · Sun Feb 23, 2020 11:02 am

Yeah, why am i not surprised that everyone's easiest solve was wrong? I guess we'll know soon enough.

By the way, if Chemist flips red, it's very likely hectic but we don't even care.

If he flips town, as he should, i stand by my previous solve suggestion. I have a hard time believing any solve that does not include hectic, given how d1 and d2 went through. Honestly i'm not even discounting Hectic/Amrun at this point, given how she actually went by the easiest route EXCEPT on the day where she had to spare her partner, if this is true. Although she didn't even vote for Hectic spare, which is... puzzling, as a distancing strategy, but it would make sense with Hectic quicksparing himself instead of waiting for Amrun to finalize. Scum!amrun would explain the Psyche kill - i just don't think that scum!Amrun would be so ballsy about it as to blame me for the killing instead of cashing in the frame and join me against Chara.

So yeah, on a green flip it's... likely Hectic + Nacho > Chara > Replica > Amrun >>> Bingle.

I... kinda hope i am wrong on Chemist, if only because otherwise i will very likely not die tonight and another day of endless debating is awaiting me in d4.

Farkran · Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:35 am

I keep wondering why people are so aggressively opposed to Hectic scum, when there's literally nothing that proves he isn't and a lot of facts that hint he is. Can you seriously go over how Hectic is town when scum did NOTHING to stop his spare?

By the way, from how the day ended and from the the night flip, i am more than convinced that Nacho is scum. He's the solve that fits the most with the current gamestate, entering d3 with a re-evaluation on slots he was hardtownreading for no reason at all

right after he secured the Hectic spare

. Bingle is almost certainly town, from how Almidia played in d1 and how Bingle played in d2. Thinking it through, i might swap Amrun for Chara in my fallback list if Nacho is town, it doesn't make a lot of sense for Chara to go for a Chemist fight AND a town spare when there's a Farkran lynch readily available which would match its progression perfectly, whereas Amrun switched her vote to chemist just because i was hard to remove. If that is the case, it's likely that Amrun just wanted to secure a mislynch - in case a Amrun/Nacho team is a possible world, because Amrun/Hectic would just let the day die, i guess - and anyways this also means Nacho is still a good lynch. But it's likely just hectic/nacho.

Spoiler: nacho & hectic

In post 106, Nachomamma8 wrote:I feel surprisingly good about Hectic being town, considering it being page 5 and all.

There's a gorgeous feel good concoction brewing over there - a healthy mix of a strong, confident tone and a gimmick that I believe scum would be less comfortable implementing than town. The combination of both gives a loose cannon feel which I feel is significantly less likely coming from scum - as scum, you are forced to contend with your partners whispering in your ear and also silently sort of judging you whenever you are doing something crazy as Hectic is doing now whereas as town the people who lynch you are technically wrong, so it often feels less risky to go off the ranch in significant a way as Hectic has.

Now, some people might point out that Sherlock is also doing a gimmick and no I don't think it has anything to do with his alignment - that's his posting in general (aka seems like someone made a gimmick alt) and thus there's an expectation that he keeps up with it/a higher chance that's something he decided to do when he made the alt as opposed to a gametime decision like Hectic likely made here.

In the bits of scumhunting that he's done there's not obviously a ton but I do like that he pointed out the +town on Chemist's entrance. I don't understand why Billy ends up his spare vote instead of the Chemist (why go for the diluted townjuice when you can go for the pure stuff?), but I'm digging his vibes and so for now he is my spirit animal.

In post 113, Hectic wrote:
In post 110, Nachomamma8 wrote:and finally one more thought before i tear myself away.

even if we spare today (i don't think we should), and even if we spare all four days (i !!!REALLY!!! don't think we should), i think it'd be beneficial for the town to try to flush out some baddies first. hectic brought up that there's more town than scum and townies can sometimes be scummy and scum struggle to be townie (which I disagree with but different time different place) - not making an earnest effort to find them makes looking townie a hell of a lot easier. the thing that makes scum scum is the lying and it's much harder for scum to lie and say "that person i know is town is scum" or "you are wrong about my partner that you caught" than it is for them to say "i'm town! the townie everyone thinks is town!".

think about it, friends. don't let this young dragon's words of wisdom fall on deaf ears.

In post 111, Nachomamma8 wrote:i did also read the setup and my personal goal is to lynch scum D1 and then spare three townies from the towncore fallout and force mafia to kill themselves.

because that would be friggin' sweet.

Golly, this is a bold plan to put forth. My master recently played a game where he had to lynch town, and mafia needed to get themselves lynched to win. They managed to lynch town for first 5 days, and he found townhunting much easier than scumhunting. However, you make a good point that we get no confirmation in this game about those we SPARE being town or mafia. In that game, scum had reason to lynch town to build up towncred, in this they don't.
I now believe the best strategy is to adapt based on how strong your reads are. Is there an obvtown floating around? SPARE them. Is there someone you're confident is scum? FIGHT them.

In post 121, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 113, Hectic wrote:I now believe the best strategy is to adapt based on how strong your reads are. Is there an obvtown floating around? SPARE them. Is there someone you're confident is scum? FIGHT them.
I agree wholeheartedly, little one.
This is the approach that I would also like to take, with one small accompaniment - it is less punishing to be wrong when picking a fight than it is when sparing a soul, and so I'm more likely to hurt than heal.

In post 123, Nachomamma8 wrote:hit a button and didn't intend to..... this post is the complete version....

In post 117, JTheophrastus Bartholomew wrote:@Nacho, hectic is an established gimmicker - if you didn't know that already - and I don't doubt for a second he would be incapable of doing it as scum given his extensive practice.
This is my first time playing with him (I think?) so I didn't know that and I appreciate you pointing that out.

Calling the practice extensive, though - I think that means that we either have very different definitions of the word or my language when talking about my initial read on him was less precise than I'd hoped it would be. I'm not disputing that Hectic would be able to gimmick post as scum; I simply believe that if Hectic was scum, then he wouldn't be able to pull off the gimmick and have it present quite the same way, and I think a cursory glance of his completed games lends a bit of credence to my point.

A bit of homework for you:

Skim Hectic's posting in this game and compare it to his posting in this game. There are some stark differences (some more obvious than others), but in particular, I want you to focus on the difference in tone. How free and willing to take crazy swings in one game versus the other? Can you see where he seems very focused on his self-image in one versus the other?

If he is scum this game, he's doing an exceptional job in taking risks and putting himself out there (and making it count) - little things like immediately claiming his character or choosing a gimmick that could very easily backfire on him (aka people get pissed off and lynch him) and making them immediately and confidently which might not seem like a big deal now that most people have accepted it, but for someone who has one completed game as far as I can tell, this is a big deal and a stark difference.

The second point, as Chara alluded to, is the scumhunting that he's done. In particular, I liked his push on Sherlock - the "Town players can act scummy a lot of the time. It's harder for a mafia player to act very naturally towny, and that's the people we're SPARING" piece seemed genuine especially keeping the games of his that I've skimmed in mind, and I think that him calling Chemist town and instead sparing Billy Pilgrim is something that mafia would avoid simply because there's no good reason for Hectic as scum to deviate from the straight line of "call town, spare town".

In post 138, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 127, alimdia wrote:I'm not so sure why having a gimmick would indicate being town...

I have read your post 122, regarding your homework, I don't use or listen to cases that form from meta.
My read on Hectic is not "he has a gimmick and thus is town" and have said as much at least two times.

If you sort of close your eyes and try to avoid using meta, you're giving yourself a blind spot for no reason at all. In games that are competitive, it's important to study an opponent's tendencies. Doesn't mean that it's the entirety of your read or the most important piece of your read, but refusing to address something that will help you get a more accurate read is incredibly silly.

In post 235, Nachomamma8 wrote:HEAL: Hectic

My strongest townread seems to be a sickness that's spreading throughout the entire town; if I spare today, I can't think of anyone I'd rather save than you <3

I mean, Nacho started paving the path to spare Hectic really early in the game, and Hectic corroborated the thought that the spare route would fit the town best when it actually didn't.

Just look at post #123, 4th from the top in my spoilered quote. Set aside that the analyzed sample is really superficial and poor, you don't produce a meta-based towncase that early into a game. Also, i don't believe that you would change the stance posted in #110 to that posted in #121 and ultimately ending in #235 in so little time, for so little reason. It pinged me when i first read it, but i didn't give it much thought because i just assumed it was because the town was pushing for a spare resolution much more than they were pushing for a fight, but reanalyzing the early posts, Nacho is actually a major culprit for that, not a victim of social pressure.

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with me about sparing being bad, can you please re-read Nacho+Hectic combined ISO? His progression on Hectic, compared to how he started and compared to how he introduced himself in the early d3, does. not. make. any. sense.

HURT: Nacho

Farkran · Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:55 pm

In post 2057, Bingle wrote:@Farkran: If you're the sole sane townie, why are you alive?

@Amrun: If I'm scum, why are all of the people defending me dying?

Because literally nobody is listening to me, and i have been the most voted player since forever? If you were scum, who would you kill?

Farkran · Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:49 pm

In post 2062, Bingle wrote:
In post 2059, Farkran wrote:Because literally nobody is listening to me, and i have been the most voted player since forever? If you were scum, who would you kill?
Amrun.

Amrun is the only person who has seriously expressed a desire to lynch me.

If Nacho was scum with Hectic, why does he shoot Psyche over the one person who is standing in his way? It just doesn't make sense. Psyche was townreading them both pretty vocally iirc.

Do you always shoot the person who accuses you most vocally during the day, as scum? Especially when they are literally the least listened to, easiest to remove by lynch slot -

right when you need a town mislynch to avoid a whiteflag town victory

?

Hint: No. You remove a widely consensus townread that was townreading your biggest threat, so you can lynch said threat.

In post 2063, Nachomamma8 wrote:OK.

HURT: Farkran

I'll be flying out shortly which means that I'll spend my time catching up some time tomorrow - I see that I don't have a whole lot of catching up to do. I still don't think Hectic was scum and I can't see two scum in Amrun/Chara/Bingle so here we are!

Ok, sure

Farkran · Wed Feb 26, 2020 11:36 am

In post 2066, Chara wrote:Farkran: i haven't double-ISOed them and i still don't think Hectic is scum, but i will probably look because it feels only fair. what do you think of scum Nacho with town Hectic?

Scum nacho does not spare town hectic, and you can read 2056 for full insight

Hectic is not town, there is no plausible reason to think he is town with this gamestate. The only slots who didn't endorse his spare were Farkran, Chemist and Bingle. Chemist flipped town (as expected), Farkran will flip town and Bingle too will likely flip town.

pedit: can you... stop for a second and tell me

why

hectic is town in your mind, besides social pressure (which is one of the most wrong premises to ever assume in a game of fm)?

Farkran · Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:02 pm

In post 2078, Chara wrote:
In post 2070, Farkran wrote:
In post 2066, Chara wrote:Farkran: i haven't double-ISOed them and i still don't think Hectic is scum, but i will probably look because it feels only fair. what do you think of scum Nacho with town Hectic?
Scum nacho does not spare town hectic, and you can read 2056 for full insight

Hectic is not town, there is no plausible reason to think he is town with this gamestate. The only slots who didn't endorse his spare were Farkran, Chemist and Bingle. Chemist flipped town (as expected), Farkran will flip town and Bingle too will likely flip town.

pedit: can you... stop for a second and tell me
why
hectic is town in your mind, besides social pressure (which is one of the most wrong premises to ever assume in a game of fm)?
i don't have the will to have this argument again. also i don't know why you bring up social pressure for Hectic being town when we've had enough arguments about my specific reasons for townreading Hectic.

like i was about to ask a question to further this but i just... really don't think it's worth the time? i don't think you'll change my mind and i doubt i'll change yours. sorry. i'd say we can talk about other reads but at this stage of the game i don't know if that helps either.
i'm sorry if you're town.

Ok, let's play a game: i will ask you two things and two only. If you can answer me, i'll drop it and just give up because it's pointless and i have no hope of rectifying wrong premises once they are set in stone in everyone's mind.

1) Can you give me ONE reason to make Hectic townlocked? Any reason, even if you have already said it earlier, but it must be townlock-worthy.
2) If you imagine a world where Farkran is town, does that reason still stand?

Because, to me, it's not possible to have both those points answered. Hectic must be scum, and his partner must be one of the players in this thread. Nacho > Chara > Amrun > Bingle is still my order of preference.

Farkran · Wed Feb 26, 2020 12:24 pm

1) I would ask you what do you make of his d2 self-quickspare when we could lynch me or bingle instead, but ok
2) Yeah, who's scum then? Nacho and Amrun? Nacho and Bingle? Amrun and Bingle? Because i really don't think you are scumclaiming here, are you?

Anyways, i stand by my words, i'll give up the discussion. At least you realized that if i am town -and assuming you are too, which is a big if by itself- Nacho is your best pick. I don't know how else i can help.

Farkran · Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:41 am

In post 2092, Nachomamma8 wrote:I ask that because two thoughts. 1) if I'm in Psyche's shoes I'd much rather have town sort out the Nacho/Farkran debacle and shoot Bingle as opposed to the other way around and 2) if we lynch Bingle (who replica was pretty harshly townreading) and he flips town then I'll feel pretty dumb. Would not feel as dumb if Bingle flipped town after we got a scum lynch.

I guess this is the kind of post i'd expect from good scum trying to look town, but regardless of the motivation, i agree with the reasoning provided. I can't see Bingle in a team with anyone alive/unspared, except maybe Nacho himself which wouldn't be a reason to change my vote anyways

Farkran · Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:29 pm

In post 2095, Amrun wrote:What are YOUR picks for scum, Nacho?

This is actually a good question though

Do you think i am partner with Amrun or Chara? Because clearly you don't believe i am partner with Bingle.

What are you doing on a Farkran green flip? What on a red flip?

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:22 am

In post 2101, Bingle wrote:(I may or may not have forgotten about this game while fighting Kerset in TM, but that's over now.)

I will place a random lol which may or may not be a reference to this quoted post

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:51 am

About the topic at hand, i never felt like i have been significantly townreaded. As i said in the past, every player in this game - except pretty much just hectic - has been simultaneously townread and scumread by the two halves of the playerlist, at some point. During d1, Asriel has been scumreaded by Nacho, Chara, Amrun, Suji, and later by Hectic when i started scumreading him. During d2 i have been townreaded by Chemist, Bingle, Psyche; scumreaded by Hectic, Nacho, Chara, Replica, and Amrun to some extent. Then Hectic was spared, Psyche died, and during d3, Nacho entered the day re-evaluating his hard-townread of me for no reason at all, Amrun has always been flipflopping his read of me, Chara seems to have reconsidered me to some extent, Bingle and Chemist weakened their townread of me but ultimately still maintained it, Replica at first weakened his scumread but as soon as we started quarreling again he immediately reinstated it just because of his stubborness rather than any concrete reason.

Out of these players, and considering the mindset that scum was forced to have during d3 (avoid a scum lynch at -ALL- costs), i think that the most scummy player among that list is definitely Nacho, followed by Amrun and Chara, followed by Bingle whom i don't really consider scummy atm. I don't buy that Nacho's progression on me is hardtownread > potential reconsideration > hardscumread while not admitting even for a second the possibility that i could have been right about Hectic or Chara when i was pushing them, when the only added information during those progression shifts was a psyche flip. If there's a player that has been taking the easy route over all days so far, it's Nacho. D1 lynch asriel/spare hectic, d2 spare hectic and nothing else, d3 nothing but endorse a farkran lynch, d4 directly pushing a farkran lynch.

I also don't really like Amrun recently, d3 eod was... not what i would expect from her, but Amrun looks like the only player who is genuinely

looking for

scum in this game rather than just tunneling on her first impressions, if you know what i mean. She has been wrong every single time, i think she is wrong on bingle too, but she's not scummy. I don't know why she wouldn't admit scum!Hectic though, i am starting to think that everyone is ignoring the matter just because they don't want to admit they're wrong on it - which could be said about me too, but at least i am pushing a theory that would fit with the gamestate and not go against it. I have yet to hear an explanation as of why nobody opposed Hectic's spare except for me and flipped town (Chemist).

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 3:04 am

TL;DR i still think Hectic is scum and that's why you do not understand that it's pointless to look for scum associatives in the current alive list.

The only scum teams that make sense with town!Hectic are Farkran/any. All of the other available pairs in a town!Hectic world would have lynched Farkran way earlier. Hectic/any would explain why d2 concluded in a Hectic spare instead of a more sensible and useful lynch.

IF i am wrong on Hectic and somehow scum allowed his spare for no reason at all, i want to rule out any team including Bingle because he's the only one who wanted to spare me over Hectic during d2, leaving Nacho/Chara, Nacho/Amrun, Chara/Amrun - i think none of these would explain why i am still unlynched though, except those involving Nacho because he was absent for a large part of d2 and d3.

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:20 am

Like, read 2056 again - or better yet, the Nacho/Hectic ISO combined - trying to think from a Nacho/Hectic scum perspective where they planned in the scum PT to spare hectic (assumed to be the weakest player among the two, i think) and try to build a towncase of him but leave the doors open for a town mislynch in case plan A failed. Instead, Hectic spare succeeded, and they pushed for it against all odds and alternatives. Again, nacho's progression from

"let's never lynch d1"

to

"let's spare hectic d1"

to

"we didn't it d1? Let's do it in d2"

to

"ok, we spared my top townread, now i am fine lynching everyone who isn't me"

Eh.

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 4:23 am

In post 2122, Farkran wrote:Like, read 2056 again - or better yet, the Nacho/Hectic ISO combined - trying to think from a Nacho/Hectic scum perspective where they planned in the scum PT to spare hectic (assumed to be the weakest player among the two, i think) and try to build a towncase of him but leave the doors open for a town mislynch in case plan A failed. Instead, Hectic spare succeeded, and they pushed for it against all odds and alternatives. Again, nacho's progression from
"let's never
lynch
spare d1"
to
"let's spare hectic d1"
to
"we didn't it d1? Let's do it in d2"
to
"ok, we spared my top townread, now i am fine lynching everyone who isn't me"

Eh.

ebwop

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:11 am

In post 2124, Amrun wrote:I don’t think Hectic is scum, but if he is, there’s not shit I can do about it now, can I? I can’t push further to sort, I can’t do shit. So I just have to accept it and hope my read was right.

Or you can try and lynch his partner instead of pushing a player who has no valid associatives in a gamestate where town!hectic was spared.

I understand trying to sort players to verify the validity of my claims and lynch hectic later, which is why i am not completely against my lynch, but the alternative is more accurate and efficient.

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 10:40 am

In post 2130, Bingle wrote:
In post 2128, Amrun wrote:This was his post on his matter at the time. What point are you getting at right now, Bingle?
I’m trying to pull him out of a tunnel, because saying “Hectic is scum!” over and over isn’t helping things fmpov. What are you trying to do?

Why do you assume that i am inside of the tunnel, rather than you? I get that you all think that i am the stubborn one, but please tell me what should i do from my pov. It's not like i didn't try to analyze the town!Hectic world, but i couldn't find any possible scenario where that could be true. I can see how *you* think that i am scum (and therefore i am lying/wrong/etc), but what should *i* do? I am trying to listen and cooperate. I am trying to assume i could be wrong, but this is my situation right now:

Assume town!Hectic

1) The only slot that could make sense coupled with someone who didn't allow hectic spare was lynched yesterday and flipped town. Chemist/Amrun, Chemist/Bingle teams were a possibility, not one i would really push as my favorite, but a possibility.
2) Any non-Hectic (and non-Nacho, because he was absent) solve would have powerlynched me d3 with everyone's blessing, don't you agree?
3) Why any non-Hectic team would risk sparing Hectic in d2? Let's also assume that scum was looking for towncred, therefore town!Hectic spare was allowed by at least one scum member if not two (looking at Nacho/Chara in this case, because Psyche and Replica flipped town). People who did NOT spare Hectic in d2 were: Farkran, Chemist, Amrun, Bingle (1642). I specifically offered myself as a lynch in d2, where it would matter the most, to see who would pick it up. But everyone chose to spare Hectic instead. Why?

Tell me why i should not believe that Hectic is scum, and how could anyone imagine a world where Farkran is town and Hectic is NOT scum. I am

not fine

with my lynch

today

, but is it the only way for you to understand my point?

If you want to sort living/unspared people, the best lynches are always Fark or Nacho. If you want the most efficient lynch for hitting scum, lynch Nacho. Of course if i am scum i would be lying, but if i am town i don't see much room for error here.

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:05 am

In post 2135, Bingle wrote:@Nacho can you rebut your earlier towncase and give me a viable not me Fark partner suggestion?
In post 1307, Nachomamma8 wrote:
WHY FAKRAN IS FRIEND:

1)

In Fakran's opening, I really like how he was fairly scattered and combative and took a number of shots to the wall that obviously weren't popular - in particular, I liked how he went from calling Amrun his strongest townread to immediately attacking her two posts down the road (and thought that him getting concerned about her interacting with her top scumread was a reasonable line of inquiry and demonstrates him handling a bunch of different possibilities all at once). It's possible for scum to come out swinging on all cylinders in the way that he did here, but it's a remarkably risky move to take close to deadline since he's basically taken a swing at everyone who's anyone all at once - the level of conviction that resulted in "even a lynch on me is better than sparing!" is remarkably ballsy without solid theory to stand behind.

I like this post wrt Amrun from Farkran, and have based pieces of my read on Replica based on this reasoning exactly. If Farkran is scum I'm not sure he offers a townread like that which is so hard to back away from.

I think that this post is also a really weird and emotionally manipulative one if Farkran is scum here. Farkran has his feelings hurt a bit by Suji calling him "detrimental to town or a strong Mafia leader", and uses that as leverage to jab back and say that Suji wasn't acting like themselves.

It's also crazy hard for me to see something like this meta engagement bit and then launching into Replica being near certain because he spoke about the danger of people sheeping his vote and wagons creating coming from scum in a million billion years - again, that's sticking your neck way way out for absolutely no reason if scum - which of course comes in the middle of a bunch of Farkran prodding at various groups moving together (Hectic spare being equal to Farkran fight, etc) - there's just a lot of shit going on here if Farkran is scum - a ton of effort put into "showing progressions and showing that he's willing to push reads" but not a lot of effort into an actual scum agenda.

Loved the salty response here - that shit was pure.

Farkran coming out with guns ablazing against you/Replica/Hectic here makes no fucking sense if Farkran is scum here; there's definitely diminishing returns associated with being townread for being crazy in this setup (not likely to get spared if you go too far off the ranch). And I can go on if you'd like but the whole read is along the same lines - Fakran is extraordinarily genuine and taking a very very absurd track if scum, Fakran also has pretty excellent progressions on reads if scum and also tends to run through a large # of possible scum worlds all at once that surface now and again in his ISO. Fakran is almost certainly town.

Add this to:

Spoiler: d2 to d3 nacho

In post 1744, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.

In post 1746, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm frustrated that i'm still thinking about farkran at this point. i'm fine leaving maybe one or two people in the CANNOT READ bin but i didn't expect him to be one of them. i think there's a lot to point to farkran being town but then there's also the fact that the man cannot make a scum case or town case on anyone without assuming their alignment or tying it back to the HECTIC IS SCUM theory.

In post 1751, Nachomamma8 wrote:and i really don't understand his approach here if scum.

In post 1752, Nachomamma8 wrote:but i still don't trust him completely.

In post 1809, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1768, Farkran wrote:
In post 1744, Nachomamma8 wrote:i'm not really great about the game today as opposed to yesterday.
yesterday was sunshine and roses. today is not.
Why? What happened that shaked your worldview that much? Psyche, one of your Tier 1 townreads, has died. Who would you have expected to die? Why are you suddenly having trouble finding scum in this gamestate, when only two of your highest townreads have been removed?
It's like you have a crush on a girl but you're a bit shy, you know? When you're a little removed and just thinking about it you're focused on the possibility of how wonderful things will be if she says yes and you start a relationship together but then you actually are talking and you're nervous taking the plunge and all of the things you have to say go out the window. It's kind of like that.

In post 1810, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1769, Farkran wrote:Like, i feel that you are trying to adjust your reads to be more and more convenient to your survival, ever since i have been suggesting to lynch you. What have i done that makes me look scummier than yesterday, except moving my vote to you? You know i have been scumleaning you for reasons similar to why i am scumreading Chara, this is not news.

Yesterday, you were considering joining the Bingle fight wagon, but you didn't get the chance to produce content about it because Hectic quickspared himself. Why didn't you consider a Farkran/Bingle solve yesterday? Or Farkran/Chemist? Or Farkran/Amrun? Are you considering any of those today?
If I cared all that much about my survival it's doubtful that I spent time the places that I did. If I was posturing to lynch you it's doubtful I spend all the time I did all day yesterday calling you town and listing all the reasons you could possibly be town. I'm just in an angsty mood so I'll probably doubt you a bunch publicly but I probably won't stab you in the back later today?

I didn't consider a bunch of Farkran/anyone yesterday because I didn't think you were scum. I'll probably try to look into some of those today because I think the "possible teams" lens will prove to be a useful one.

In post 1889, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1885, Farkran wrote:Nacho entered the day posturing against me.
I've continually said that I'm not scumreading you. Why do you keep saying that I am posturing against you?

In post 1890, Nachomamma8 wrote:Actually no I don't want nor need an answer. I'm not scumreading you. Stop acting like I am.

In post 1896, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 1892, Amrun wrote:
In post 1890, Nachomamma8 wrote:Actually no I don't want nor need an answer. I'm not scumreading you. Stop acting like I am.
This kinda makes it seem like you’re scumreading him though, just saying.
Being annoyed at someone because I feel I'm repeating myself =\= scumreading

In post 2063, Nachomamma8 wrote:OK.

HURT: Farkran

I'll be flying out shortly which means that I'll spend my time catching up some time tomorrow - I see that I don't have a whole lot of catching up to do. I still don't think Hectic was scum and I can't see two scum in Amrun/Chara/Bingle so here we are!

Nacho has a huge shift in reads from d2 to d3, when the only relevant element that changed was psyche's death. I didn't like his initial posturing during d3. It pinged me the wrong way ever since the first time i saw it, but it... kinda made sense, i mean, it's not wrong to re-evaluate your reads once you get later in the game. Reread stuff, ask stuff. If you want to base your resolution on a non-flipping route, it's the correct thing to do. But why me specifically instead of... pretty much anyone else? Is that because i was the easiest, most ambiguous read to fake a reconsideration on? Moreover, why ONLY me? I understand that irl issues can get in the way of your play, but he had promised a lot of content -before- going away, and only came back with a Farkran hurt vote after another of my plausible partners had flipped town. Who do i consider as my top scumread right now, in your opinion?

pedit: sure, i'll get back to you in a minute. I feel like i have already explained my reasons several times here though, so if you have any specific questions about what i am potentially missing from my solve, please go ahead and ask. When i say "assume town!Hectic", that's... pretty much what you asked me to, it's like if somehow Hectic has already been flipped or pops came here slipping Hectic's rolepm

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:33 am

In post 2137, Bingle wrote:I’m not saying that Hectic isn’t scum. I’m saying sorting with the foregone conclusion that he is is counterproductive.

FMPOV, you’re completely ignoring cases like nacho/Chara Chara/Amrun and me/anyone. While I don’t particularly benefit from the third, I could use additional insight on the others.

Pretend, for an IRL day, that Hectic is flipped town. What does that mean for your solve? You’ve talked at length about Hectic scum and I engaged with that, even if we did ultimately reach different conclusions. The least you can do is share your thoughts on the rest of the players individually.

Nacho/Chara

This is maybe the most plausible team outside of a scum!Hectic world, but this implies a few weird things that happened earlier. First of all, both of them pushed Hectic as a spare when they had the option of pushing a lynch on Bingle or Farkran in d2. Let's say they did this for the towncred, because we know Hectic is town so there's not much to discuss about it. They killed Psyche though, instead of Farkran/Amrun who were pushing stronger for a fight route. This, to me, means they were more inclined to pursue a lynch in d3, and they needed to avoid a lynch on themselves at all costs. I opened the day voting Chara, Nacho scumreaded me in return. Until here, makes sense. Amrun and Replica voted me though, which means Chara would only need to push me a tiny bit to make me fall... except that it would mean convincing Bingle to join them, since Nacho (absent) wouldn't help. So Chara tries Chemist to Chemist instead, who was already voted by Bingle, hoping that me and Amrun would finish him?

This makes some sense, i guess, if we concede that this team allowed a Hectic spare instead of pushing for a mislynch during d2. It wouldn't have been hard, imo. But yeah, it could make sense.

Chara/Amrun

Pretty much the same reasoning as the above... but wouldn't explain Nacho's immotivate reconsideration of my slot in d3. It's

possible

, i guess, but it's my worst tentative solve among those that are possible. Although that Psyche kill... OR, this team could kill Psyche earlier and leave Hectic+Sherlock alive, knowing that only one of them would have been spared and the other would be the n2 kill, they shouldn't care which was which. Actually, Sherlock spare would have been maybe even better than Hectic for towncred generation?

Uhm... actually... it would ALSO make sense for scum!Nacho to kill Sherlock first instead of Psyche, i guess, whereas for this team Psyche should have definitely have been killed first and Sherlock/Hectic later?

Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?

Bingle/Any

Almidia/Bingle could achieve my lynch so many times that i just do not believe it. The only plausible team is Farkran/Bingle (which makes sense from town!Amrun pov), but eh.

Farkran · Fri Feb 28, 2020 11:39 am

In post 2140, Farkran wrote:So Chara tries Chemist
to Chemist
instead

Too many chemists in that sentence

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 12:46 am

In post 2154, Bingle wrote:
In post 2140, Farkran wrote:Also wouldn't this team just powerlynch Nacho right now?
You mean like how Amrun and Chara are both considering a Nacho lynch right now? I mean... It doesn't make them autoscum, there's legitimate reasons behind their considerations in my opinion, but you kinda just described what's actually happening.

Yeah, just as much as Nacho/Amrun wanting to lynch me, Nacho/Chara doing the same, etc. If we are trying to explore new solves other than Hectic, let's take a look at the facts. There is at least 1 scum alive and unspared, because sujimichi is the only conftown we have. Can we produce any more conftown? No. Can we try to guess? Yes. What do we use to make an educated guess? Up to you.

From what i have seen in the history of past days, despite how much you hated it, i could separate players who showed independent thought and/or genuine reconsideration from those who were sheeping and omgussing instead.

1) Chara. Was scumleaning me when i replaced in, consolidated its scumread during d2 when i started pushing it, reconsidered in favor of sparing (d2) and lynching chemist (d3). Does this progression make sense? Maybe. I have more issues with its progression on Hectic than i have on her progression on me. While i thought things excalated really quickly around d1 eod, the town flip of Replica at least proved me wrong on my "comically terrible" timeline push on those two slots. I still think there is some potential for a chainsaw defense against me if Chara is Hectic's partner, but once again that's dependant on a Hectic scumflip more than Chara itself at this point in time.

2) Amrun. Was scumleaning me when i replaced in but tried reconsidering me in favor of lynching Bingle first, then Chemist, now she's on me again. Does this progression make sense? Yes, i think it does, but she also seems to be ok with any lynch aside from her own. Except for d2. Actually, did Amrun have any time to vote me in d2, or did Hectic quickspare happen first?

3) Nacho. Was townreading me when i replaced in, started reconsidering me after Hectic was spared, ended up hardscumreading me. Never tried reconsidering any other slot, went from "we should never spare!!!" to "hectic is so town i would entrust the life of my children to him!!!" Does this progression make sense? No, even if i described it with a hyperbolical and sarcastic narrative - that's just exactly what happened.

4) Bingle. Was townreading me when he replaced in, continued townreading me despite my vote on him, with some re-evaluation from time to time. Kept analyzing other slots as well. Does this progression make sense? Yes, this is the player i have the least issues with. Might also be due to having analyzed him from both a town (cult game) and a scum (*ahem* that was fun *ahem*) point of view, i think i understand how town!Bingle plays. I have no experience with scum!Bingle though.

Does this help us sorting before entering new home? Maybe. Probably not. Everyone's highest scumread is different. The highest consensus comes from Nacho, Chara and Amrun on lynching me. I'm... only partially ok with that, i would have liked to die in d2 when it would actually help advancing the gamestate towards a solve. Now it kinda does too, but on a townflip i can see the town in complete disarray rather than in a better position to win, unless Psyche has very good aim - which i am not entirely confident with. Is there any other non-scum lynch that would produce a better result?

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:53 am

As far as VCA goes, i think i provided enough over the days.

Spoiler: resolutive VCs

In post 353, popsofctown wrote:
Spare Votecount 1.7
Hectic ----------------------------------
(5)
Chara, Nachomamma8, Replica, Hectic, Amrun

Replica --------

Asriel Dreemurr -----------------------
(1)
Chemist1422

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------
(1)
Asriel Dreemurr

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi ----------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

SherlockHolmes -----------------------
(1)
SherlockHolmes, Replica

alimdia ----------------------------------

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not sparing:
- (3) Sujimichi, alimdia, Psyche

Fight Votecount 1.7
Hectic ----------------------------------

Replica ----------------------------------
(1)
Chemist1422

Asriel Dreemurr -----------------------
(4)
Nachomamma8, Amrun, Sujimichi, Chara

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi --------------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------
(1)
Asriel Dreemurr

SherlockHolmes -----------------------
(2)
Hectic

alimdia ----------------------------------
(1)
SherlockHolmes

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not Fighting:
- (3) Psyche, alimdia, Replica

<3<3<3<3<3<3<3<3

3>3>3>3>3>3>3>3>

Amrun was fascinated by how quickly Hectic acclimated himself to his giant snowdrake headpiece. After only a couple shaky steps, he began to mimic the way Nachomamma8 ambulates his own top heavy body, in a lurching gait that is somewhat of a strut.
"I love this idea for a game! Let's play costumes and model! Hectic is a natural model! Look at him, he was born for this!"
Hectic strutted over to Amrun and began to lightly gnaw on her shoes, even though she was wearing them. The headgear pushed against her other leg and made him fall over, so then he just rolled around on his back again and enjoyed the scraping noise he could make by wriggling his head.
"Maybe that means he wants shoes. We can make him a full costume! You want to be a star, don't you Hectic?"
Hectic wagged his tail excitedly and seemed to struggle to try to stand up again. Amrun gently used her mouth to grasp Hectic's headpiece and lift him back onto his feet.
"I present to all of you, Hectic, Heavy Headed Haberdasher, Hemmer, Hairstylist, Hipness Holistician!" Amrun exclaimed.

With eleven players alive, it takes six votes to make a decision.
(expired on 2020-01-28 22:00:00)

In post 919, popsofctown wrote:
Spare Votecount 1.F
Hectic ----------------------------------
(1)
Nachomamma8

Replica ---------------------------------
(1)
Chara

Farkran --------------------------------

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi ----------------------------
(6)
Sujimichi, Hectic, Replica, Amrun, alimdia, Chemist1422
<-

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

SherlockHolmes -----------------------
(1)
Psyche

alimdia ----------------------------------

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not sparing:
- (2) SherlockeHolmes, Farkran

Fight Votecount 1.F
Hectic ----------------------------------

Replica ----------------------------------
(1)
Farkran

Farkran ---------------------------------
(2)
Nachomamma8, Chara

Amrun ----------------------------------
(1)
Sujimichi

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Sujimichi --------------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

SherlockHolmes ------------------------

alimdia ----------------------------------
(1)
Amrun

Psyche -------------------------------------
(1)
SherlockHolmes

Not Fighting:
- (5) Psyche, alimdia, Replica, Chemist1422, Hectic

<3<3<3<3<3<3<3<3

3>3>3>3>3>3>

In post 1642, popsofctown wrote:
Spare Votecount 2.7
Hectic -----------------------------------
(5)
Chara, Nachomamma8, Replica, Psyche, Hectic

Replica ---------------------------------

Farkran --------------------------------
(2)
Chemist1422, Bingle

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

Bingle----------------------------------

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not sparing:
- (2) Farkran, Amrun

Fight Votecount 2.7
Hectic ----------------------------------

Replica ----------------------------------

Farkran ---------------------------------
(3)
Hectic, Replica, Farkran

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------
(1)
Chemist1422

Chemist1422 ---------------------------
(1)
Nachomamma8

Bingle--------------------------------------
(1)
Amrun

Psyche -------------------------------------

Not Fighting:
- (3) Psyche, Chara, Bingle

<3<3<3<3<3<3<3

3>3>3>3>3>3>

With nine alive, it takes five to make a decision.
Replacement Key

In post 2051, popsofctown wrote:
Spare Votecount 3.2
Replica ---------------------------------
(2)
Chara, Amrun

Farkran --------------------------------

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------

Bingle----------------------------------
(2)
Replica, Bingle

Not sparing:
- (3) Farkran, Nachomamma8, Chemist1422

Fight Votecount 3.2
Replica ----------------------------------

Farkran --------------------------------
(1)
Replica

Amrun ----------------------------------

Chara -----------------------------------

Nachomamma8 ------------------------

Chemist1422 ---------------------------
(4)
Bingle, Chara, Amrun, Farkran

Bingle--------------------------------------

Not Fighting:
- (2) Nachomamma8, Chemist1422

3>3>3>3>3>

<3<3<3<3

"Bingle has some really good ideas. And my new father has said that having a training dummy is for our safety, even if I don't know exactly what that means. So if we don't have a replacement, we are in danger. I say that we are taking whatever measures necessary to ensure we have one." Chara said these thing as they walked to a toolbox on the porch and pulled out a saw, a screwdriver, some sandpaper, and a ratchet. They walked back towards Chemist1422 and the group smiling, and one of their eyes glowed more than the other - why was that?
"You might become the best dummy ever. Certainly the one with the largest eye." Chara used the sandpaper to sharpen the saw, being as theatrical as they could manage.
After the saw was "sharp enough", they held the sandpaper up in the sunlight. "Bingle, is it normal 'genetics' for a dummy to have horns?" They thumbed the sandpaper ominously. "Because I want us to have a dummy just as authentic as if someone had gone to the CORE and retrieved us one promptly."
"No." Bingle answered. This prompted Chara to put the sandpaper along with the saw as the instruments with primary relevance.
Chara used their feet to make a round shape of grass within the leaves, close to the shape of Chemist1422's body. "Okay, Chemist1422, step forward - with your last steps, the best ones - and lie down here for your procedure."
Chemist1422's eye widened and widened and widened. Then with a resolute blink, the loox easily decided on the better alternative.
"I'll go get one I'll get one I'll get one!" He ran as fast as he could in the direction of the CORE, running so fast he soon tripped and his spherical body began rolling towards the CORE.
"I may or may not have seen that outcome coming," Chara admitted.

Chemist1442 has been
fought
.

Spoiler: Chemist1422 Role PM
You are a lil
Loox
, aligned with the
town
. You have no special abilities besides your voice and your vote. You are in the formative years of your life when you received the "bullied" complex that will later shape your personality. But for that to bullying to have the right impact, you should play and have fun first, so that there is something to ruin. You won't bully any of your new friends, if you did, how could you ever develop a persecution complex?
To confirm for the game, tell me your alignment and tell me that the mafia have daytalk, by PM.
Here is your image. It can be posted in the game thread if it's by itself:

I think there is scum on my d1 fight wagon, and i think there is scum on all hectic spare wagons. If Almidia/Bingle with a non-Hectic partner were looking for towncred, they would spare Hectic too. If they wanted to avoid a town spare, they would lynch me at any point in time. Ignoring both means that they just disagree with the consensus rather than pushing to a convenient result in either direction, and that's more often than not town indicative. It usually is scummy only when it comes from lurker... which could fit with Almidia MIA in d1 eod and Bingle not engaging properly during d2, but then Bingle came back and didn't update the situation, which is one of the staple points for my towncase of Bingle.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:54 am

In post 2165, Amrun wrote:Why is it exactly Psyche shooting?

First night kill after both spare and fight have been used once.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:35 am

NKA

Spoiler: N1K: Sherlock

This slot was heavily townread due to the sujimichi situation, so i didn't pay much attention to his reads, but there may be more credit here than we gave him. Hectic was a very high townread too at the time, his spare was only postponed because of Sujimichi, so why didn't Hectic die first?

Spoiler: N2K: Psyche

In post 665, Psyche wrote:Suji
Sherlock
Hectic
Nachomamma
Me

I'd bet the whole game on this entire group being town. And god surely hates someone in the scumteam if the IC isn't among these. I simply do not need any scumreads this game and don't care if you don't like it. Let's just end this and go next.

In post 736, Psyche wrote:
In post 721, Replica wrote:
In post 718, Amrun wrote: I think Psyche is too sure about Sujimichi and it might make him scum. Whereas Sherlock I think is extremely town for how they went about it.
I thought a lot about this yesterday, I agree with you. The only issue for me was trying to figure out the scum incentive for him to push for 3/4 spares incl. Sujimichi/Sherlock. I think it makes sense if he thinks we won't actually spare the 3/4 people like he advocates, instead using it mostly to posture. That seems very plausible to me.
I don't think the spare route is worthwhile unless the town has a lot of strong early townreads. This is the only reason I listed or even mentioned a list of several people. I think this is a really important part of my gamestance to underline here: I would normally prefer lynching people for the rest of the game if we didn't already have so many good townreads available before even learning who the IC is.

I don't think scum sherlock volunteers or even seeks out the new info we have on Sujimishi. Why, even if he as scum had some other reason to read Suji's PT and sees the post, I don't think he as scum assesses it as potentially clearing the slot in this game. It's just not a priority scum has, and I think it takes a lot of deliberate attention and task-directed effort to produce the analysis of the PT post that he did. I'm about as confident in my SH read as I am in my Suji read for these public, easy to explain reasons.

The Hectic read isn't as confident. It's just a normal strong town read, which I explained earlier. Given my other reads, I'd prefer to spare someone else. By the time sparing those targets is already passed as an option, we'll either be even more sure he's town or will have to re-evaluate. But my strong townread is not just based on posts already here, but on a strong expectation that we'll get more evidence of his town mindset as the game goes on. I've said earlier - I think I'm a lot better at PoE than finding scum. My Hectic read fits into this strategy.

And then my nacho read has a similar basis to the sherlock read - he did a thing i doubt scum can organize the cognitive resources to do - but is weaker by comparison. I'd hope we could spare my other reads and even myself before committing to sparing nacho. We'll have many more posts, many more tells by then. But I'd still bet the game now that he's town, and all these reads are town. (It's a game - it's not like I'm betting a lot!)

I think that the situation where my assessment/strategy gets enough consensus for a Suji spare today is one where at least 3 people in my list end up spared even if I flake out overnight. A ball gets rolling w/ a Sujimichi spare and two clear options for a D2 spare (I imagine one will be killed) - all with the town IC still unknown! - that is hard for me to imagine scum overcoming. They just get too little wiggle room. No opportunities to PR hunt (the absence of lynch wagons that might elicit a PR claim even further this). Just an unstoppable plan with some but a quite low chance of failure.

If you really do agree at least with the
intuition
that Suji is probably town, along with SH and Hectic, then I don't know how you square the scum motive for earnestly advocating their sparing with the concrete losses to the faction associated with these outcomes. It's just not a calculation that makes sense fmpov. If I were scum, I imagine I'd commit to obfuscating rather than insisting on the significance of the Sujimishi revelation - unless he (or SH) were my scumbud or something I suppose. Is that the read of the gamestate you're leading yourself into? Because I just don't know how you do that, I don't.

In post 742, Psyche wrote:replica's honestly a blur to me so many of you are just blurs how do people play this damned game

ok lemme try:
i think there's good evidence in his iso of trying, of reaching for and game-advancing reads and ways to convince people of those things. but i give a bit more credence to what i perceive as successes at that - in my experience it's kind of easy as scum to fake trying, after all (you can get through a whole game as scum by performing "unsucessful trying" - it conveys a town motive without needlessly preventing mislynches). i don't see any grand successes that scum only have weak reasons to pursue (and should find difficulty
cognitively
at achieving anyway), so i don't have any strong townread.

but yeah, lean town?

yeesh who does that leave?

Hectic TOWN
JTheophrastus Bartholomew Who?
Asriel Dreemurr Who?
Amrun HmM
Chara hmm
Nachomamma8 moderate town
Billy Pilgrim WHO?
Chemist1422 ???
SherlockHolmes TOWN
alimdia HMM
Pine TOWN

ok i'm unsubtly asking for an updated playerlist

In post 748, Psyche wrote:if u turn out to be scum amrum i will experience a catharsis unheard of since st paul was restored the power of sight

In post 1048, Psyche wrote:unless you're scum lol
[to Farkran, ndr]

In post 1186, Psyche wrote:chara seems a weird spare choice for today
i don't know how anyone can be
that
certain he's town

In post 1203, Psyche wrote:Ooh, I think I have a new read. I disagree w/ Farkran on a lot of things but I think I have very little doubt that he's town compared to even Hectic. Seems super obvious that he's looking for scum in all.

In post 1239, Psyche wrote:[fight]amrun[/fight]

so i can have one on someone i dont feel confident about

In post 1394, Psyche wrote:maybe we spare farkran sooner rather than later
i'd say he's more definitely town than hectic after all

In post 1468, Psyche wrote:HEAL: Bingle

In post 1492, Psyche wrote:HEAL: farkran

In post 1565, Psyche wrote:
In post 1562, Chara wrote:
In post 1561, Psyche wrote:i still dont have a chara read
do you have any
thoughts
on me at all?
you are an enigma
i feel like i'm supposed to townread you, but it's just not happening
i have a few guesses why - after all, someone difficult the way you are comes up in every game - but i don't know how to find any clarity about it before you flip

In post 1639, Psyche wrote:HEAL: Hectic

Psyche ISO is particularly long, but it's full of shaky reads and reconsiderations. It points to scum!Amrun and scum!Chara mostly, but i don't think that's where we should look because - as Amrun is pointing out in the pedits i'm seeing while writing this post - killing Psyche on d2 specifically seems deliberate. But the point in question is not whether a Fark/Bingle team wants to remove Psyche, rather how a Hectic/Nacho team has no more use for Psyche.

pedit @Amrun: Replica and Chara were also strong spare pushers, their kill would lead to shoot Farkran during n4, but why wouldn't i take that over lynch farkran in d3 or d4? Killing Psyche leaves at least three people alive willing to lynch me in {Replica, Chara, Amrun}, right when a scum lynch is the worst possible outcome for a Fark/Any team. On the other hand, this reasoning also implies that scum knew when the day resolution would shift from a spare to a lynch - and during d2 the strongest pushers for a lynch were exactly me and you.

NK3: Replica

He was the highest townread and pretty much all over the place pushing for my lynch. I don't have much to say on this, other than scum's desire to push even further for a fight resolution. I would think that if Hectic is scum, he would wish for a 3S/1townF or 4S though, so... i don't know. What i learned from this NKA is that i see no

particular

reason to kill Sherlock over Hectic, but i would imagine any Amrun/non-Hectic team would have killed either Hectic, or maybe even Psyche, before Sherlock.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:09 am

In post 2174, Amrun wrote:I think there was a ton of reason to kill Sherlock over Hectic. Like I think N1 and N3 were brain dead scum
Kills any teams would make.

I also think it would be fairly predictable we would switch to lynch on day 3. Nacho also was a lynch supporter if you’ll recall.

It was fairly predictable by killing Psyche. What if another player was killed instead? What if d2 ended in a lynch? Why did d2 NOT end in a lynch, if the n1k was braindead?

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 3:54 am

In post 2176, Amrun wrote:
In post 2175, Farkran wrote:
In post 2174, Amrun wrote:I think there was a ton of reason to kill Sherlock over Hectic. Like I think N1 and N3 were brain dead scum
Kills any teams would make.

I also think it would be fairly predictable we would switch to lynch on day 3. Nacho also was a lynch supporter if you’ll recall.
It was fairly predictable by killing Psyche. What if another player was killed instead? What if d2 ended in a lynch? Why did d2 NOT end in a lynch, if the n1k was braindead?

That’s what I mean - killing Psyche mace it a lot more likely that we lynched the next day, making him the likely vig. I could easily see this being a smart gamble by scum in hindsight.

Yeah... which is exactly what i tried to point out in my earlier post. We agree that killing Psyche promotes a fight resolution, but do we also agree that a scum lynch in d3 is strictly worse than a scum assassination in n4, from a scum pov?

Do you agree that this kill mostly points to a scumteam that is not afraid of being lynched in the first place, and only secondarily to a scumteam that is not afraid of being shot?

In post 2176, Amrun wrote: I don’t understand the latter question? What does the N1 NK have to do with the day 2?

You said that N1K was a braindead choice from the scumteam. Why?

I'll try to elaborate. What did scum try to achieve by killing sherlock n1?
A: That d2 wouldn't end in a town spare? This implies the whole scumteam tried to contrast a Hectic spare, i.e. 2 scum in {Farkran, Amrun, Chemist, Bingle}
B: To gain towncred by ending d2 in a town spare? What makes Sherlock a better kill than Hectic, in this scenario?
C: Simply remove the highest townread at the time without further thought involved. Why do they kill Psyche n2 then? The M.O. is inconsistent
D: To spare Hectic specifically, Hectic is scum, etc.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 10:31 am

It seems we are going to conclude on Fark/Bingle and Nacho/Hectic, which means we always lynch in Fark vs Nacho. I'm not against that. Pick your choice, and after a flip there's still time to fix the situation and win in eìther case. If you pick Nacho and flips town, i am fine being shot to sort things out but the ideal target should be Hectic.

Recapping the plausible routes:

ROUTE A

d4 lynch nacho, flips scum
n4 psyche should shot hectic to a town win
d5 {Suji, Fark, Chara, Amrun, Bingle} if it exists because hectic is town, needs a Chara/Amrun lynch where the other is lynched d6 once proven wrong

ROUTE B

d4 lynch nacho, flips town
n4 psyche will likely shot me, i guess, even though Hectic is still more efficient
d5 {Suji, Hectic, Chara, Amrun, Bingle} needs an immediate Hectic lynch and hope that i was correct on my earlier Chara read

ROUTE C

d4 lynch Fark, flips town
n4 psyche should always shoot Hectic because he's always scum in this scenario
d5 {Suji, Nacho, Chara, Amrun, Bingle}, a Nacho lynch should solve the game, otherwise flip a coin

ROUTE D

d4 lynch Fark, flips scum
n4 psyche shoots pops and starts an anarchy

At least this day was kind of fun, and i didn't have to beat the same dead horse over and over and over and over, fighting and arguing against bad logic with my every post. I know i have been unpleasant, i try not to. But it's hard when people just refuse to read your posts, refuse to understand your position and reasoning rather than engaging it. Today this didn't happen, and i feel much better. If i still get lynched out of it, at least it's because there is an explanation coming from a world i know to be false, but i can't prove it without flipping.

I don't feel i have been particularly stubborn - at least not more than i should have. I don't think i am wrong in saying that scum!Hectic is the only solve that makes sense from my pov.

pedit: ...or at least i hope Nacho isn't following in Replica steps. At least now i'm confident Nacho is scum and there is a wincon reason for him to call my posts garbage, so i should have no reason to get pissed at him. I don't need to explain why i am

not

the stubborn one in me vs Nacho, do i?

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:14 am

In post 1, popsofctown wrote:
Undertale S Open
2 Mafia Goons

8 Vanilla Townies

1 Town Friendly Neighbor

Each day, town must vote to
Fight
one player (HURT: ) or
Spare
one player (HEAL: ). Selfvoting is allowed. Placing one vote on each option is allowed. The mafia have a standard factional nightkill.

If a player is selected for
Fight
, they are lynched.

If a player is
Spared
, their role is not revealed, and they are temporarily removed from the game thread and put into the Spared PT. They will rejoin the game thread later. Spared players cannot be targeted by the factional nightkill. Town aligned players lose any power roles they had when they are spared, but mafia aligned players maintain scum PT access and can still perform nightkills.

At all times: If both mafia members are
Spared
, mafia wins, and the standard win condition for mafia also applies (town wins when all mafia are eliminated, mafia wins when all town are eliminated).

After day 4,
New Home
is reached. The spare option is permanently lost. Night 4 will be skipped.
Town is awarded a bonus based on the number of players that were spared. All spared players are returned to the game thread after the bonus is resolved.

1 player spared: The spared player is granted lynchproof. The mafia must immediately kill two unspared players.

2 players spared:
Once both Spare and Fight have each been used, the most recent factional nightkill victim is set aside in case this bonus is earned. That player has read-only access to the spared PT. If this bonus is earned, the mafia protect one player if mafia was spared, then
the set-aside player performs a kill that may target even spared players.

3 players spared: The mafia immediately removes two players from the game without flipping them and must choose a mafiosi if no mafia was spared.

4 players spared: If all spared players are townies, town wins immediately. Otherwise, the town spares an additional player then all unspared players are removed from the game without flipping. All players become Beloved Princesses.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:17 am

In post 2195, Amrun wrote:
In post 2179, Bingle wrote:I’m not sure where Amrun’s concern about being shot comes from. As of the end of day 2, I think psyches reads mostly pointed at Chara/hectic vig, with an outside chance of Amrun, assuming he didn’t change his mind post death.

I did find Nachos assumption I would be shot to be very intriguing though.
Sure, if he hasn’t changed his reads, it’s either Chara/Me, but I townread Chara, sooo....

I don’t think he can vig from spare, can he? I assumed he couldn’t.

The point is that Psyche never scumread Hectic though. He scumreaded Amrun > Chara. I know it's a long post but 2173 is a quite accurate summary of Psyche ISO

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:33 am

In post 2198, Amrun wrote: @Farkran: This game has been pretty unique IMO - no real shit posting, not a super fast pace, pretty congenial, and really full of content. It’s been a mechanics-free trip down pure solving lane and I’ve enjoyed it.

I largely agree, this game was not easy, it had some surprising moments, the playerlist has been all in all enjoyable although it also had been frustrating at times, for reasons that i would gladly have avoided. Everyone, not excluding myself, could probably have put some more effort in tryharding without clashing, but sometimes it just comes to that. I rarely indulge in memeing or shitposting in general, i am really more of a nasty headbutter, perhaps obsessed with winning. It's either love or hate, i guess. After i lose my first game on ms, i will probably be more relaxed, lol

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:39 am

In post 2199, Amrun wrote:I didn’t think he would target Hectic regardless, I just missed that he could if he wanted to. Unless he re-evaluated, he will shoot between me/Chara, which is bad news.

I wonder, though - why are you discounting scum!Chara so hard? I understand that you have been empathizing with it for the longest time, but what content did it produce that is townlock worthy? What are you going to do if both me and Nacho flip town?

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:18 pm

In post 2204, Chara wrote:it's nice in theory to say "if Farkran flips town, then Psyche should shoot in Bingle/Nacho, preferably Bingle"

Wait, what...? Like, seriously, what? How does my townflip aggravate Bingle's position and make Nacho look better?

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:21 pm

In post 2210, Chara wrote:Farkran: i feel like you talked about this but i can't find it in your ISO, is English not your first language or am i thinking of someone else? sorry for the weird question.

Yeah, i'm based in italy, native language is italian. I might fail some grammar from time to time.

Farkran · Sat Feb 29, 2020 11:44 pm

In post 2212, Bingle wrote:
In post 2183, Nachomamma8 wrote: I think that you and Farkran made a mistake by shooting Psyche when you did. I think Farkran misread his confidence level in those Farkran/Bingle townreads but I think with Psyche having hard townreads on 4/5 of the living means that he's going to reanalyze and I don't think that process is going to end up looking too good for you.
So you're going to assume that Psyche is going to shoot me on the basis that you think you can guess how psyche would reevaluate using information that neither of us have in addition to the information readily available in the thread when people are saying at large that I've been acting more town recently than before?

In post 2218, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2212, Bingle wrote:So you're going to assume that Psyche is going to shoot me on the basis that you think you can guess how psyche would reevaluate using information that neither of us have in addition to the information readily available in the thread when people are saying at large that I've been acting more town recently than before?
Two thumbs up.

I might have said that you've been more townie recently, and if I did, I apologize because I've been a big fat liar. You've been more reasonable lately - you've provided sound logic which doesn't rule you out as scum in the least bit. I can't see Psyche shooting anyone that isn't you.

Ok, wait a second.

Set aside Nacho's asspulled progression on me and Bingle, and his stubborness in believing everyone else is town without having produced the smallest bit of content to backup this thought, i'd like an explanation to a couple things.

1) Psyche was hardtownreading 4/7 of the living in {Bingle, Farkran, Hectic, Suji}, he had at least a townlean on Nacho, and was at least scumleaning {Chara, Amrun}. Where does the 4/5 come from, and who are you referring to?
2) What does Psyche have to re-evaluate? The only worlds that make sense are scum!Fark and scum!Nacho, mutually exclusive. This is why sorting between us is so important today, as you have written only a few posts earlier.

Serious questions. What does Psyche have to re-evaluate after today's flip?

Farkran · Sun Mar 01, 2020 12:02 am

In [u]all over the thread[/u], Nachomamma8 wrote:Farkran, you're stubborn!

In post 2220, Nachomamma8 wrote:on the wildly off chance that I'm horribly wrong, I'll find out via egg on my face

A less serious, but no less important note about the extents you have recently been going to shade my logic, despite it being correct and despite us agreeing on more than one subject in this game - the only clashing moments we had were about our reads, not our logic.

You have never been to emotional about it - like Replica was, for instance - but you too have never been trying to

understand

my position, as opposed to read my posts and infer my alignment based on tone only. You townreaded me just as long as it was convenient, but made sure that you never agreed with me - not even once doubting your stance on your reads, which you should have if you were actually townreading me and not making that up. You know that in a town!Fark world, the noose tightens around the correct solve.

Your progression on Amrun and Chara is also very shaky and convenient. Post 1316 is the last you have spoken about them relevantly, after that it's only Farkran, Farkran and more Farkran until you voted me. How did they become both hard-townread material? Looking forward to your towncase of them.

Farkran · Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:38 am

Eh, ok.

Amrun, it's up to you. Have fun.

Farkran · Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:30 pm

I made all the postgame comments in the dead and scum pt, but once again congratulations to everyone, this town has been a thorn in our side every single day. I was afraid we would lose more than once. Much more than once.

Farkran · Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:40 am

Read the spare PT

Good job in there, and i can only reiterate once again how much this playerlist has been awesome.

Farkran · Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:52 am

In post 2543, Prism wrote:And since I made absolutely no attempt to hide who I was, didn't change my mannerisms, and am a completely unknown player anyway...

Hello everyone!

Oh, you're the guy i had 0% compatibility with in the valentine questionary!

Farkran · Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:52 am

Super lols, i guess that makes sense

Farkran · Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:49 pm

*giggle*