Newbie 1988 | Octopus | Over

[LuckyLuciano]

@CJV, who do you think is more likely to be mafia out of Menal and Homura?

I really dislike this post. Crush's vote is on me. There's only 1 mafia left. Homura and CJV have already stated that they are probably going to vote me today. It feels like Crush is putting the cart before the horse and looking forward to how he can best setup the gamestate for LYLO.

[LuckyLuciano]

What happens first, the mafia night kill, or Phoenix's jailkeep? In other words, could Phoenix have jailed CJN night 1, preventing him from using his role to visit someone, and thus causing Titus to see that he visited nobody and think he is confirmed town?

This springs to mind because TSE unvoted Cheeky at L-1, whereas Crush kept his vote on Cheeky at that point, and broke a 3-way tie to make Cheeky the leading wagon upon joining in.

[LuckyLuciano]

Actually, looking at https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... Resolution, it seems my question is answered. Going to look back to Phoenix's iso to see if it appears he would jail TSE Night 1.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no, then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock. I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

[LuckyLuciano]

I would also be fine with giving happyorange more time to catch up. Replacing into a 1500 post game is an intense undertaking and I feel he should be given the time to properly parse through the game.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm not sure whether Phoenix used his role to protect someone, to to try and block mafia. I'm not sure if it's worth trying to figure out, but I think if we mislynch today, it's worth reevaluating CJN at LYLO.

Question, however, it say Jailkeeper prevents a player from using 'their' role, and the mafia nightkill is factional, even though it's carried out by a player. Can the jailkeeper stop the nightkill by jailing the player who carries out the nightkill, or no? If the answer is yes, then CJN should probably be treated as locktown as mafia would use their roleblock on the jailkeeper in addition to the night kill. If the answer is no,

then it makes sense strategically for the mafia to waive their roleblock.

I'm asking Ploti about this in my role pm too, but if anyone knows the answer and can provide it sooner that would be great.

Good one, but you forget that mafia have almost perfect information after D1. They know that town has a tracker and that it would be risky for roleblocker to move.

That's the entire point of the bolded part of my post. Anyway, it doesn't really matter because Ploti answered me and the jailkeeper will block the nightkill if used on the person carrying it out. That means that CJN is pretty much locktown, because it makes more sense for the mafia to both roleblock and night kill Phoenix. Not doing so risks the nightkill being blocked, and one player has to move anyway to carry out the kill, so why not have that same person also roleblock?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, 797.

[LuckyLuciano]

Spoiler:

Thanks for the quotes, I went back to look for myself quickly to make sure and found this bit, which is both helpful and baffling at the same time.

First, I didn't like you because you liked me or because of the early aggression. I am bothered by you scumreading both TSE and me. My reexamination over the night phase has TSE at greater than 75% town. Putting us in a dichotomy is bad. Second, you do knowing one of your other scumreads, nom, will capitalize.

Judging by Titus's posts around this one, she actually does strongly townread TSE and isn't having a moment of doubt or inconsistency here. This must mean she thinks that 75% is a strong townread, rather than being the baseline random chance for anyone in the game to be village. Given that, it's possible she also thought that CNJ was mechanically clear based on her night result? Even though there was no way for her to know whether or not CheekyTeeky was the roleblocker, or whether or not she missed the wolf making the kill, or a number of other things. Kind of hard to stomach that someone would make that many assumptions, but it's possible? I guess?

Everything that concerns you with Titus' confidence is exactly why I read CJN as FN day 2 and Titus as his target. I've been disappointed in myself for not figuring out that Titus was Tracker until she was NK'd, but that just makes me realize that Wooper knew all along there was no FN and at certain points implied that he thought CJN was. I just woke up so I'm going to go make coffee and breakfast, but I'm going to go look back at that part of Wooper's ISO. I'm not really sure what I'll find or what I'm looking for, but he suggested a few players that CJN try to visit as FN, maybe there's something worth looking at. I'll report back when I'm done.

[LuckyLuciano]

So the posts are 1132 and 1217. There's a chance Wooper+CJV were playing for a Mena mislynch into roleblocking Titus + killing Homura or Me night 2 and counterclaiming Titus as town power role at LYLO.

I do not think this is the case, however. I am only putting this out there as something to look at if we mislynch today and I think any attempt to wagon CJV today would be a mistake. Let me remind everyone that CJV put Wooper at L-1 yesterday when Mena was already at L-1 1199.

Official Vote Count 2.12

Lynching

With 7 votes in play, it takes 4 to lynch.

Menalque

(3):

Wooper

, LuckyLuciano, Crush

Wooper

(3):

Titus

, Menalque, ceejayvinoya

Not Voting

(1): Homura

[/area]

[LuckyLuciano]

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1):

Titus

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Orange

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(3): Lucky, Crush,

Karnage

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Homura

(2): Orange,

Titus

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Orange

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(3): Lucky, Crush,

Karnage

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Homura

(2): Orange,

Titus

Lucky

(2): Homura, CJV

Orange

(2):

Ph0enix

,

Karnage

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(2): Lucky, Crush

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Crush

(2):

Ph0enix

,

Wooper

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Lucky

(1): Homura

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Lucky

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Homura

(1): Orange

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Titus

(1):

Wooper

Lucky

(1): Homura

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Lucky

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(2):

Titus

, CJV

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Titus

(1):

Wooper

LuckyLuciano

(1): Homura

Wooper

(1): Orange

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): LuckyLuciano

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

CJV

(2): LuckyLuciano,

Wooper

Wooper

(2): Orange, CJV

Ph0enix

(1): Crush

Crush

(1):

Ph0enix

Karnage

(1):

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(1): Homura

Orange

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(3): Orange, CJV, Crush

CJV

(2): LuckyLuciano,

Wooper

LuckyLuciano

(2): Homura,

Ph0enix

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1):

Titus

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(3):Orange, Crush,

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(2): Homura,

Ph0enix

Ph0enix

(1): LuckyLuciano

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1): CJV

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Wooper

(1): Crush

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1):

Titus

, Orange

LuckyLuciano

(1): P

h0enix

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Ph0enix

(3): LuckyLuciano, Homura, CJV

Wooper

(2): Crush,

Titus

LuckyLuciano

(1):

Ph0enix

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Karnage

(1): Orange

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): Orange, CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Wooper

(1): Crush

LuckyLuciano

(1):

Ph0enix

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

Titus

(2):

Karnage

, Orange

Wooper

(1): Crush

CJV

(1):

Wooper

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(4): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

Orange

(2):

Wooper

, Crush

Titus

(2):

Karnage

, Orange

Not Voting

(1): Homura

With 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to lynch.

Karnage

(5): CJV,

Titus

, LuckyLuciano,

Ph0enix

, Orange

<-- LYNCH

Orange

(2):

Wooper

, Crush

Titus

(1):

Karnage

Not Voting

(1): Homura

[LuckyLuciano]

250 makes a Wooper + CJV team look really odd, as they both are making each other the leading wagons.

[LuckyLuciano]

Accidentally made Wooper green in 283. Of note, in 303 Titus voted the Wooper slot, making it L-1 and in 320 the CJV slot unvoted the the Wooper slot. I read this as town early when I was townreading Wooper, but now that Wooper is red it isn't a reason to townread CJV now. However, it is worth pointing out that I made the CJV slot aware of something they had missed giving them reason to unvote, so it's not a reason to scumread the slot either.

[LuckyLuciano]

I think that CJV is town. I don't think they are locktown. My intent is on Crush today. I know I'm town. I think your slot is town based on Mena's push against Wooper. I think Homura is town for the hammer. We know the surviving mafia is the roleblocker and I think + Titus is a strong reason to believe CJV is town. I'm not pushing hard because we're 5 weeks into a game that's on DP3 and has had as many replacements as its had players. In that time I've pretty much only pushed town and defended scum. I'm not exactly in the mood to lead tbh. I think it's worth noting that the roleblocker could have waived night 1, and that there's a possibility of Wooper + CJV, in case Crush is a mislynch and we have to go to LYLO. I think that's possibility is solidly on the unlikely spectrum of possibilities.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

[LuckyLuciano]

I feel the same about Homura. Prior to replacing in myself, my strongest town reads as an observer were QQ (Crush) and Cheeky (You). The QQ slot is probably my strongest townread in the game. That leaves Titus, Non, and CJN (TSE). We have one mislynch left. Assuming we lynch one of the three aforementioned players this DP, which flip do you believe reveals the most information?

Can you explain what you meant when you said we have one mislynch left? Did you think the game was in lylo?

LYLO-X, where X represents the number of mislynches until LYLO. We were at 5v2. If we mislynch and mafia night kills, that leaves us at 3v2. We had 1 available mislynch. I'm not sure what was confusing about what I said?

Also, to help you under time constraints, I townread QQ hard because I believed he softed a power role early on. That read is going to carry on until the end of yesterday without me really looking at Crush much more because I'm under the assumption up until that point that he's the remaining TPR.

[LuckyLuciano]

As for the Crush/Teeky interaction, I can see it going both ways. What's been taking up more of my headspace is whether or not Crush let's Teeky get to L-1. 315, and 316 are making me wonder whether a Crush + Teeky team is actually viable. It's possible that Crush wanted to scumread his partner early to distance, but coming into the game and putting a heavily suspected teammate at L-2 feels like an overly bold strategy. His entrance still feels like a softball SR, and Cheeky just ignored it. How likely is it that Crush expected Cheeky to give him an easy out to drop his scumread on her and she just didn't do it before the wagon picked up steam and he was committed to it?

If not Crush, though, then who? My gut tells me to look at Homura next. CJV has a point that getting to LYLO by hammering Menal would be pointless as Wooper was 100% the lynch if Menal flipped green, and Homura would be largely suspected at 2v1 LYLO for hammering Menal. Under the assumption that Wooper always dies yesterday or today, and that if Wooper dies yesterday, Homura never dies today, I would think hammering Wooper appears to be the better play. Remember when Titus gut pinged from Tapio (Orange) to Phi (Homura) in RVS and Cheeky started to hard tunnel Titus? 23.

Looking more at Cheeky's ISO, she happily tagged along with my push on TSE when I replaced in, making me more town on CJV. While Crush's entrance feels softball towards Cheeky, it also feels like his analysis of Cheeky catching every wave is just true. I feel it's a lot harder as scum to find a true reason to attack your scummates in order to distance than it is for town to find true reasons to push scum. UNVOTE: Crush. We're low on time, however. We gotta work fast.

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Crush. I don't really see any reason to lynch anyone else today. The most notable parts of his iso sticking out to me are 276 + 277, and 861 + his posts today that feel like he's planning future mislynches ahead of time.

Actually the more I think about it the less I understand why I need to be the lynch

, unless you really think I would just kill off my partner D1. It was also good rereading those posts of mine, I still like the reasoning behind it; except that I TR'ed you so much that I thought

Wooper

would automatically lead to

CJV

.

Mood.

[LuckyLuciano]

Crush, how do you feel about Homura?

[LuckyLuciano]

276
290-293.

[LuckyLuciano]

Homura was also the one the helped me the most in pushing the Phoenix counterwagon which helped take pressure off Cheeky.

[LuckyLuciano]

menalque i'm gonna need you to level w me pretty quick if you're scum dude

Wooper, I'm going to need you to level w/ me pretty quick if you're town, dude.

This made me laugh.

[LuckyLuciano]

I don't think an all-town lynching of Karnage is that unlikely considering how it was a flash-lynch with a hard deadline after Phoenix claimed TPR. It was always going to be Karnage under those circumstances if Phoenix is TPR, the VCA of his final wagon really just boils down to, who was online?

[LuckyLuciano]

I do find it odd that Homura declared intent to hammer with 6 hours left (495) and just gave time for someone else to hammer, and then immediately next day raises suspicion of the player who hammers with about 2 hours left in the day 557 575.

Also, Wooper declared intent to hammer as well and specifically placeholder voted Non (543) and, much like Homura, questioned him for the Hammer (575). I feel that it's strongly possible that Wooper instructed Homura not to be on the lynch if at all possible, planning on doing VCA in day 2 and using it to create a lynchpool that excludes both of them because, despite declaring intent, they didn't actually vote (583).

[LuckyLuciano]

VOTE: Homura. There's too much going for Crush. The more I reread Cheeky + Homura, the less I like Homura.

[LuckyLuciano]

Yup, I've been wrong at pretty much every turn. I think I'm right about Homura, but he's also the only person I haven't scumread until now. Before voting me, try to look at how Cheeky / Wooper interacted with me and used my misreads to push their Agenda. Homura pretty heavily used me to justify leaning against Menal for much of day 2 before logging off and coming back to a tied wagon.

[LuckyLuciano]

I do find it odd that Homura declared intent to hammer with 6 hours left (495) and just gave time for someone else to hammer, and then immediately next day raises suspicion of the player who hammers with about 2 hours left in the day 557 575.

Also, Wooper declared intent to hammer as well and specifically placeholder voted Non (543) and, much like Homura, questioned him for the Hammer (575). I feel that it's strongly possible that Wooper instructed Homura not to be on the lynch if at all possible, planning on doing VCA in day 2 and using it to create a lynchpool that excludes both of them because, despite declaring intent, they didn't actually vote (583).

How does that outweight Hamura hammering wooper when wagons were tied at 3-3? I find it pretty difficult to believe that she would bus her partner when she would have to think that doing so would more or less clear the other villagers on the lynch, and given that she doesn't seem like the type of player to believe in herself to carry a game on her own, not to mention mena was the main source of the push on wooper and with mena dead there would always be a chance that wooper could have convinced village not to lynch him, or that's the sense I get of things without having read that part of the game in full.

I think you'll change your perspective once you do read that part in full. I myself was getting close to hammering Wooper by the end of the day if it wasn't for external events making me question whether I was starting to townread Mena because of his actions in this game, or because of that external event. There's a reason why I'm much more willing to cooperate with you than I was Mena despite it being the same slot, I'm just not allowed to disclose the reasons.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, do you think it makes sense for Wooper and I to align so hard day 2 if our strategy is for me to push mislynches all game?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Orange, if I'm lynched today, promise to reevaluate Homura tomorrow. He most likely night kills CJV and puts himself in a 1v1 with Crush, who already seems to be trying to resort him but left his vote lingering carelessly on me.

[LuckyLuciano]

What makes more sense, scum!Cheeky+scum!Lucky, with Cheeky sheeping me the moment I replaced in and Wooper and I all-inning on day phase 2 after outing one of the TPR day 1 and NKing them night 1, or scum!Cheeky/Wooper taking advantage of town!Lucky playing horribly?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Crush, if you think that I'm onto something, unvote me so that Homura can't hammer and look more into it. It's worth giving yourself time to read Homura again, even if you decide you'd rather lynch me today. Tbh, if I wasn't me and I didn't know I was town, I'd be voting me today too. But I have the unique advantage among townies in that I know that I'm green, so I'm more able to see other players as red. I haven't even given that strong of a case against Homura because I'm afraid of being wrong again and am embarassed with how badly I've thrown this game, but if both you and CJV see reasons to consider what I'm saying about Homura, there's a good chance I'm onto something.

[LuckyLuciano]

I mean, if I'm mafia here there's no reason for me to argue CJV is town when Orange came into the game doubting it. What part of Orange's posts prior to him scumreading me make me think, "Man, you know how I win the game here? I give good reasons for people to believe Crush is town and then I tunnel the player that hammered scum yesterday." The only way I'm scum the way I've played today is if I'm intentionally trying to look TBTBAW, because every move I've made today hurts my chances of winning if I'm scum.

[LuckyLuciano]

He's not going to slide in and random lynch. He's going to contemplate for an hour or two and then lynch me. If there's a chance he's scum, and you know that you are town, wouldn't you rather take away his ability to decide the lynch today and seize it for yourself? He's never voting himself, and there's no time to wagon anyone else, so he always has to vote me whether he's town or mafia. If you know you are green, you should take your time to be the deciding vote.

[LuckyLuciano]

Are you going to be around when the deadline comes to an end? If you're going to have to leave soon and won't be back to re-vote, it makes a lot more sense to leave your vote. I think I'd rather by lynched than have a no lynch. If we no lynch then we have to no lynch again tomorrow and mafia gets to pick both deaths going into LYLO instead of just one.

[LuckyLuciano]

Cool, I'll be around throughout the rest of the day as well. I just messaged Ploti a question. If he says yes I might be able to suggest you do something that will help you see me as town. Do you mind unvoting for a little while so I can get a response from Ploti?

[LuckyLuciano]

@Crush, Ploti responded and asked that I don't make the suggestion I wanted to, so that avenue is a dead end.

[LuckyLuciano]

Looking back at Wooper's last posts atm. Mena interpreted Wooper's push for a Crush CW as a last-minute distancing attempt. I disagree. Wooper had enough heat that I think he was operating under the assumption that he was dead, especially after I suggested that I might hammer him, and was looking to create false associations with Crush. They were on the same wagon, so it makes it easier to say Wooper + Crush scum, just like people want to use me voting alongside Wooper as reason for Wooper + Lucky scum, but the EoD distancing is way too obvious and to take it on face value I think is to underestimate Wooper. I truly believe he told Homura to hammer him for town cred and their path to victory would be to lynch me + Crush.

[LuckyLuciano]

1.5 hours. Crush, you still around? Have you thought any more about Homura or looked at Cheeky + Phi, Cheeky + Homura, and Wooper + Homura?

[LuckyLuciano]

Can confirm, site is running slow.

If I'm playing the mafia face and open wolfsiding all game, why does Wooper play aggro day 2? It just doesn't make sense. scum!Lucky only ever works with a passive second mafia, or if you assume Wooper horribly misplayed our team dynamic. The latter assumption still fails to explain why Cheeky sheeped the hell out of me when I replaced in. Are we really trying to operate under the assumption that both Cheeky and Wooper misplayed their role in a scumteam with me massively? Further, why would I take an open-wolf stance as the mafia PR? Knowing what we know now with flips, if I'm mafia, I'm the roleblocker. Why would I play so aggro as the roleblocker? It doesn't compute.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, I hope whatever you are going through is resolved quickly and positively Homura. Best wishes.

Homura, if I'm lynched and flip green, who is scum?

[LuckyLuciano]

Mena also said that if we lynch me and I flip green to not autolynch Crush next DP, meaning he was open to re-evaluating your slot or CJV's. Both of which seem foreign to you. I think Mena was hiding some of his thoughts to avoid being nightkilled in the case that I'm mislynched today.

[LuckyLuciano]

13 minutes, Crush MIA.

[LuckyLuciano]

Good luck in LYLO. Remember not to vote until you are 100% sure of who you want to lynch so mafia can't hammer. There's no reason we can't come out with the win. Take your time, evaluate all the slots and their relation to Wooper. Evaluate the night kill and the motive behind it. Look at who sheeped me the entire game and just let me be wrong repeatedly without ever contesting my reads. We win this.

[LuckyLuciano]

Also, I did explicitly townread Cheeky, not sure if that makes a difference for you.

pedit: That plot twist.

[LuckyLuciano]

When did I said I would self-vote? I said I'd rather be lynched than no lynch, but self-voting is playing against my wincon.

[LuckyLuciano]

I feel really bad for mafia if I'm right about Homura. Without the server lagging he hammered me 100% and got to LYLO.

[LuckyLuciano]

I don't think I deserved to win this game.

[LuckyLuciano]

He hammered you because there was 2 minutes left in the DP.

[LuckyLuciano]

I really need to readjust my play for this site. My old site had 72 hour days with easily 500-1k posts per day so it was easy for me to take every read to the extreme and let people check me if I was going too far off the deep end with them. I started realizing after the Wooper lynch that with the slower pace of mafiascum I just made it super easy for the mafia to sit back and slightly nudge me in the wrong direction and I took the reads too far before people have time to chime in and correct my course.

[LuckyLuciano]

I also need to take more care of myself outside of the game. This shutdown has had me isolated for so long that it's really getting at my motivation to do anyway. It felt like once I figured out Homura was scum and I wasn't just testing a read anymore but truly believed it I had no motivation to go back and explain what I saw to other players.

[LuckyLuciano]

Homura, it's so likely that you lost because of server issues, you can't blame yourself. If the servers don't lag, I get lynched, you night kill CJV, and LYLO is a 1v1 between you and Crush and I think you win that.

[LuckyLuciano]

I feel really bad for mafia if I'm right about Homura. Without the server lagging he hammered me 100% and got to LYLO.

Well played LL!

Hard disagree.

[LuckyLuciano]

@Menalque, I think I am. I just miss seeing other people. I think I've spent roughly a third to half the year so far in quarantine.

@Crush, the only reason there was a 1v1 D3 is because I cast a giant shadow for the mafia to hide under. It was hard for us to scumread scum when I was playing scum for them.

[LuckyLuciano]

Menalque and Titus really impressed me. Looking back at their posts helped me immensely. Honestly, once I started realizing Wooper + Crush just makes 0 sense, what got me to look into Homura more was Titus' gut ping onto Phi and Cheeky's problem with it. I just admitted that Titus has played much better than me this game and decided to look into her reads instead of my own.

[LuckyLuciano]

Yeah, I'm not happy with the way the game ended.

[LuckyLuciano]

I'm just going to go vomit at the thought of quarantines becoming seasonal.