Mini Normal 2141: The World of Tomorrow [Game over!]

[Quick]

More or less where I am rn. I was doing a reads list at the time hammer was done so didn't get it off before EoD, but at that point I had NPOM as Null, I think.

Gamma
VP, R2R, Atarashi
Dany, Puppy, mav<Null
Blair
votato
Dunn

Noteworthy, is that my method takes time to work, but it does work and I have concrete evidence of this seen here:

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p11822500

So when I get NKed, then is the time to take my reads seriously.

Also, I kinda hate Blairs response to one of my posts seen here:

@Blair...

We totally smoked 'em.

Fine, but only because you pinky-promised you'd help us lynch scum even if you are scum!

Going to vote it

VOTE: Blair

[Quick]

Quick, if Gamma is your top townread you are absolutely going to have to actually explain that one.

Sure. They have a low number of posts but by the looks of it, they engage meaningfully with other people. Also keep in mind that my reads list is very rough at this point. It will take more time to develop, but once the game has gone on long enough, that is when it can pretty much nail every single Scum in the game. It gains a lot of momentum on a Scum flip as well as it clears people from being Scum which is very valuable because it essentially makes people into an innocent child given the Scum who got lynched interacted with Town in a certain way.

[Quick]

basically quick's system for solving the game is the same way the rest of us play, except he thinks hes wayyyyy smarter.

No?

[Quick]

He's saying, by the way you've described your system, it analyzes and draws conclusions from all the same variables that everyone else is trying to analyze and draw conclusions from.

Which is generally true.

I don't really want to talk about your system anymore to be honest, and I wish you'd quit referencing it. The system is designed by you and draws conclusions based on variables you decided to look for using the assumptions you gave it. So it's really not a system, it's just you. It's your thought process. So I'd rather talk to, and about, you than your "system." The latter irrationally absolves of responsibility for the reads you produce.

Way to contradict yourself in the same flipping post.

[Quick]

Way to contradict yourself in the same flipping post.

Way to miss the point of the flipping post:

So it's really not a system, it's just you. It's your thought process. So I'd rather talk to, and about, you than your "system." The latter irrationally absolves of responsibility for the reads you produce.

And your wrong too. I would not doubt you trying to discredit me if you are Scum here. This would also make the NK make sense because I was SRing Nauci. What exactly is saving you at this point is your post count. Other than that, you actually sheeped me D1 so the fact you are trying to discredit me now is very telling.

[Quick]

It is notable that Nauci only seriously voted between votato and R2R. I am taking that into consideration here and it actually emphasizes my SR on votato.

[Quick]

I'm not discrediting you, I'm giving you agency.

If I were discrediting you, I would be voting for you.

You could never get my lynched here. The fact people haven't given you their stance on me is evidence of this.

[Quick]

This sounds more like wounded ego than a case, to me.

If I'm scum and want to get rid of you, but I'm not voting for you because I know I can never lynch you, then why aren't you dead?

I'm not scum and I'm not voting for you because we need to resolve Gamma today.

No? It's based on my reads. You are a SR of mine based on my method/system/way I solve the game. So I have every reason to push you rn.

[Quick]

And let it be known: no one is talking about Dunn's hammer.

[Quick]

Quick was wrong D1

You disappoint me with such low posting.

[Quick]

I think the wagons should be between votato and R2R tbqh.

VOTE: votato

[Quick]

I think the wagons should be between votato and R2R tbqh.

VOTE: votato

why is that your lynchpool? why do you prefer me over r2r?

I think there are people who want to spill your blood. I also think there are people who want to spill R2R's blood. I currently have R2R above you. That's why I am voting you. That and the fact that there are already some people voting for R2R and I want to help facilitate the wagons here.

mav's switch from votato to R2R seems a bit short sighted and I have previously thought mav to be a critical thinker. So this puzzles me.

[Quick]

Quick was wrong D1

You disappoint me with such low posting.

I am a changed man

How much of the game have you read and,
Why are you not voting rn?

[Quick]

Gun to my head, if I had to solve right now it would be:

Gamma

+

Puppy

/Midway +

Mavs

/Atarashi/Quick

Bolds being my best guesses, sorted left to right by confidence both within each slot and overall.

The Mav read is my highest confidence for a third scum, but still isn't very high at all - and that's if there even are three scum.

The lurkers are basically just me accounting for the unknowable. We need more content from those slots to sort them.

Why is votato Town? Also, votato cannot be Scum with Puppy, but I might go back and double check that for accuracy.

[Quick]

ASSUMING R2R is Scum means Gamma is NOT Scum and vice versa.

[Quick]

Here is what I have so far for people who are least likely to be teamed at this point:

VP/votato
VP/Puppy
Gamma/R2R
Blair/Atarashi
Atarashi/Puppy

[Quick]

So based JUST OFF THIS. The most strongly TR people should be:

VP
Puppy
Atarashi

But we haven't seen Atarashi post in a while...

[Quick]

VP/votato
VP/Puppy
Gamma/R2R
Blair/Atarashi
Atarashi/Puppy

This also fits my solve.

You should vote Gamma with me.

I would but I am not SRing Gamma. Also, I don't have that as SvT, but just Not SvS.

[Quick]

I would but I am not SRing Gamma.

Care to review this exchange?

686 694 697

I keep asking people for thoughts on that.

Yeah, this all means pretty much nothing considering Gamma wasn't on the NPOM lynch. Also, Gamma comes out of that looking better than you.

[Quick]

I'm really trying to communicate with you here but you're being deliberately obtuse again.

I'll spell it out: It is my hypothesis that Gamma was avoiding the NPOM wagon because he knew it would flip Town, and those posts support that hypothesis because they represent a defense so flawed that even NPOM himself rejected them.

Except it's an argument from silence. Saying Gamma is Scum for being right not being on the NPOM lynch is bad. That is why I said Gamma comes out of that looking BETTER than you. Hence, if Gamma fucks up on something later in the game, we can probably nail them for that.

[Quick]

I think the wagons should be between votato and R2R tbqh.

VOTE: votato

why is that your lynchpool? why do you prefer me over r2r?

I think there are people who want to spill your blood. I also think there are people who want to spill R2R's blood. I currently have R2R above you. That's why I am voting you. That and the fact that there are already some people voting for R2R and I want to help facilitate the wagons here.

mav's switch from votato to R2R seems a bit short sighted and I have previously thought mav to be a critical thinker. So this puzzles me.

Thanks for the compliment haha.
Votato is the one person I’ve been swinging wildly on since the NPOM town flip. I go from thinking he’s DEFINITELY scum with R2R to think he’s DEFINITELY town. So expect more, but currently I’m on the he’s DEFINITELY town part of the pendulum.

@Blair: R2R is absent from your possible pairings list. Looking through your posts, I don’t actually see a case on why you believe him to be town or explain a town read? (Full disclosure: when I say “looking through” your posts what I mean is skimming through them as there are A LOT.)

So rn you are SRing R2R more than you are SRing votato. I can see that I suppose. Flip flopping usually comes from Town, so that is a slight reason to boost the TR on you to Null-Slight Town. Still, that is how you stack up anyways...

[Quick]

Nice 6 post read

are you gonna answer any of my questions? you have said that you're reading but you havent contributed anything. not even shitposts. its a total void.

True statement.

Also, it should be noted that votato is Efforting this game. Hence, getting a solid read there is going to actually be pretty difficult because I think votato usually plays Town based on kinda sorta saying the opposite of what is true and just letting that hang forcing people to think about what they (she?) is saying. The fact that votato is trying this game could mean they are Town or it could just mean they like the players in this game.

[Quick]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

By all means.. show me where R2R and VP are Not SvS.

[Quick]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

By all means.. show me where R2R and VP are Not SvS.

Scum!VP does not jump into the middle of QuickVsBlair at 517 to hard-bus scum!R2R (who was only being voted by NPOM at the time), and then actively try to break up QuickVsBlair to make us engage with his hard-bus.

That would be a colossal unforced error. VP is basically the reason the R2R wagon even existed, and he pushed it hard. So hard, in fact, that it's still a wagon today.

If VP/R2R is a scum pair, then VP hard-bussed his partner into a viable lynch wagon, when his partner was previously only being voted for by the day's eventual lynch, and then

actively sought to break up a fight

between two other players in order to bring more focus onto his hard-bus.

It could very well be a bus. Why are you ruling that out?

[Quick]

@votato: some people don't generate reads (or solid ones) until later in the game. Are you aware of this?

[Quick]

In my view, VP Baltar and R2R are not scum together.

Quick, you didn't include that pairing in your "Not SvS" list - what am I missing?

By all means.. show me where R2R and VP are Not SvS.

Scum!VP does not jump into the middle of QuickVsBlair at 517 to hard-bus scum!R2R (who was only being voted by NPOM at the time), and then actively try to break up QuickVsBlair to make us engage with his hard-bus.

That would be a colossal unforced error. VP is basically the reason the R2R wagon even existed, and he pushed it hard. So hard, in fact, that it's still a wagon today.

If VP/R2R is a scum pair, then VP hard-bussed his partner into a viable lynch wagon, when his partner was previously only being voted for by the day's eventual lynch, and then

actively sought to break up a fight

between two other players in order to bring more focus onto his hard-bus.

It could very well be a bus. Why are you ruling that out?

It's not impossible, but as I've laid out in the above:

If that was a bus, it was extraordinarily reckless and unnecessary - VP seems fairly competent, so I doubt this was an unforced error from scum.

Sure, except Scum had Day Chat...

[Quick]

>>> gives reads
>>> waits
>>> goes and finds reasons to have those reads

That's exactly what I did D1 and it turned out bad.

Also, where is VP so far today? I really want his take on all this since he is a fairly stron Town Lean for me rn.

[Quick]

@R2R, I got pretty much nothing out of my 1v1 with Blair.

[Quick]

@Quick/Blair: was there anything deeper behind your motivation to push each other so much aside from your suspicion of each other?

Uh, this is what he asked though. Weren't you guys fake tunneling on each other to try to catch scum?

IDK what Blair was doing. That's why I got nothing out of it.

[Quick]

unvote

Vote: Blair

VOTE: Blair

I would love to see Blair Tunnel this about now.

unvote

Vote: Blair

eggs, plain

Both of you: what votato said

Mine had a double meaning.

Way too much fun.

I thought that this suggested that it was staged

Yeah, that was given NPOM was Scum like I thought they were. Their Town and Blair sheeping me of all people rubs me all kinds of wrong because people never sheep me. It's also the way it was done which is almost like Blair saying, "I'm Scum and you are never going to catch me."

[Quick]

man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

I feel like you have this backwards. I get what you are trying to do, but it looks really agenda-y.

[Quick]

For some reason, I had a scum read on VPB, but it seems like you guys think that is unrealistic

If VP is Scum, then it's going to be between:

Gamma
Blair
Atarashi
R2R (outside chance)

For the other two.

Still, if it IS Gamma, then it's never with R2R or Blair, but everyone else is fair game. As far as that goes, I'd much rather lynch R2R over Gamma to rule the other out. It would also be nice to semi-crear mav here, because mav is a valuable asset if Town.

Votato is interesting because the only people they REALLY can't be Scum with is VP and to a lesser extent, Puppy. But R2R and votato can totally be SvS as far as I can see. That's why I would really prefer the wagons be between those two. Votato has pretty good Scum equity and R2R has actually been pretty damn Scummy.

[Quick]

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

I thought your agenda was to "sort" Gamma. It's a lynch now? Why? I think your reasons for wanting to lynch there are bad and you'd be better off on the R2R wagon I think.

[Quick]

i think r2r is town based on tonereads

Tone reads are shit.

[Quick]

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

I thought your agenda was to "sort" Gamma. It's a lynch now? Why? I think your reasons for wanting to lynch there are bad and you'd be better off on the R2R wagon I think.

This is a distinction without a difference. I do not vote for people I am not willing to lynch.

Do you?

Don't understand why you phrased it that way. If that's the case, then NPOM really seemed like a compromise lynch to me. I didn't see a whole lot of conviction from you that they were Scum.

Unless you can prove me wrong and pull up some posts that do show some conviction that NPOM was Scum? Like I said, the post where you voted NPOM was fishy and smells gross.

[Quick]

Are you implying I was not willing to lynch NPOM?

Good luck defending that one.

There are many posts that demonstrate my interest in lynching NPOM, but if I had to single out the clearest one - it would be the one you said you hated when you initially voted for me today.

It's interesting that you thought my NPOM push was fake and my vote was gross but... decided not to mention it or imply it at all until Day 2?

I said conviction and you know it. Are you dropping context on purpose or what?

[Quick]

VOTE: Blair

[Quick]

In the context of a vote, what on EARTH does "conviction" mean other than "to lynch"?

You say it but I don't feel it. I don't feel that edge that you were out for blood on NPOM. That is deeply concerning since it DOES make it look like it was just a compromise wagon. But maybe you are not actually talking to me, but talking to the rest of that game and not really trying to convince me, but them. I will point this out since no one else is likely to.

[Quick]

can i get some quotes?

From who?

[Quick]

Still like my vote!

I did state a case on NPOM but not one person commented on it. Not really sure why that is.

OK, I give up, I can't find it. Please link your NPOM case?

All I found was this:

This is more or less my reads at this point.

Atarashi
mav, Gamma, Puppy
Dany, VP, Blair
votato
NPOM
R2R

But I would like to see what R2R brings to the table.

So this is my vote after analysis (seperate from what I have said ITT).

VOTE: NPOM

Unless your NPOM case came before your NPOM vote. I didn't go back much farther than that.

Plus, it means either his SR on Blair dissopated (with no progression) and that he is ignoring the VP wagon while even saying the people voting there are likely Town -1. At what point does NPOM make the "logical" choice just vote VP here? Does he TR VP or is the Town -1 mean there is no possibility of Bus or what? Cuz I am pretty sure NPOM knows Scum would for sure sit on a Scum early game if they don't intend to be active.

The sentence structure is botched as well, which would normally feel like a petty objection, but here it is actually obstructing understanding.

I'm trying really hard to put my "Nice Blair" hat on here and help you articulate this, I'm just not sure where to begin. That "either," for instance, in the first sentence: Is that vestigial? (It feels like a relic of an earlier, edited version of the sentence)

@Blair...

We totally smoked 'em.

Fine, but only because you pinky-promised you'd help us lynch scum even if you are scum!

VOTE: NPOM

The case being decent (and finally coherent) didn't hurt, either. Even if he was null reading me at that point, why move your vote off of a null read on to a random "one of these three is probably scum, I guess this one will do"?

NPOM, you are welcome to commence flailing in abject terror and/or despair. I'm not fussy.

My vote was on a very weak townread because i liked Quick's answer -- should i leave it there while i look for a better one?

Your non-answer and abject terror are noted.

The thing is... you were never picking up what I was laying down until several other people decided my case had merit.

[Quick]

can i get some quotes?

From who?

about the conviction

Yeah, but who were you asking to fetch the quotes?

[Quick]

That is the moment I moved my vote off of Quick onto NPOM.

I literally said exactly why I was doing it, but Quick wants to play dumb for some reason.

I wanted to flip NPOM because he was either scum or town who isn't scumhunting - but mostly

I wanted to flip NPOM to sort Quick.

P-edit: You're deliberately trimming out the multiple posts in which I explained your case to other players. (Why would I do that, thus helping your wagon, if I didn't believe in it? Especially if it puts a target on me when NPOM flips town, which I would know if I were scum?)

No. I am not playing dumb. YOU are doing that now by not adequately addressing what it is I am saying here.

[Quick]

That is the moment I moved my vote off of Quick onto NPOM.

I literally said exactly why I was doing it, but Quick wants to play dumb for some reason.

I wanted to flip NPOM because he was either scum or town who isn't scumhunting - but mostly

I wanted to flip NPOM to sort Quick.

P-edit: You're deliberately trimming out the multiple posts in which I explained your case to other players. (Why would I do that, thus helping your wagon, if I didn't believe in it? Especially if it puts a target on me when NPOM flips town, which I would know if I were scum?)

I only went UP TO THE POINT that you voted for NPOM. Sure, you can hammer him as Scum AFTER THE FACT, but that means jack shit at the time of your vote.

[Quick]

I still like my votato case, but we have some time and I want to try something else on for a moment

VOTE: ready2rock

Let's not forget this post. What do you [all] think of this post now that NPOM has flipped green?

Might as well come out here with a big fat poster saying you are hard defending R2R at this point.

[Quick]

That post from Puppy still looks bad post-lynch, Quick. It is amazing to me that you would disagree.

For you, yes, totally. Looks really bad for you.

[Quick]

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

R2R is a better push since it appears Gamma is the better player.

[Quick]

VP also completely ignored all the questions asked of him. interesting.

Pardon? I've tried to answer all questions directed my way. I'm sure there are things that have been missed along the way though due to the river of content, so feel free to point them out.

going through your ISO, I see this in post 244:

puppy and VP, what are your reads? what do you think of atarashi? you're both asking questions without actually offering up any thoughts of your own.

this was at the time with your name calling match with puppy, which i found quite silly and passed through relatively quickly since I was also working at that time. I've given reads at this point, so that answers that question. I do find your effort to slide in a completely unfounded remark like I'm not "offering up any thoughts of your own" complete cum BS. I'm 100% out in front here pushing your wagon to get people to weigh in, and it's not exactly like it's the most popular position to go after a likely scum who people think is too wreckless to not be town.

As far as I can see, I've directly addressed every other question you've put to me. This again fits with the pattern I identified when I first had a weird twinge about you and voted: You mischaracterize because you are fake scum hunting.

Hi again VP!

it's ur responsibilit to not get NK'd, not mine!

It's your responsibility to be good town. A mild reading between the lines of my words, which you accurately did, revealed where my head was at about possible busing. My point was there wasn't a benefit to the town making that more explicit there than it needed to be.

Quick: Blair is saying you were lying because you, on 3 separate occasions, claimed you purposely post enigmatically/mysteriously, and then in the 4th post claimed that you were NOT trying to be cryptic, which totally contradicts the previous 3 posts

Blair: I think that Quick both meant what he said the first 3 times, and what he said with that last bit, because A: the part about him NOT trying to be cryptic was referring to a very specific subset of his posts, and B: he sometimes owns the fact that he's unintentionally cryptic because he doesn't explain his theories well enough, but sometimes he also says that this happens because he's intentionally being mysterious. It's the sort of thing that has gotten him mislynched many a time. I think that if you're going to scum read him, you have to go a bit deeper than surface contradictions.

Major town points on Nauci here for me. I had been eyeing her carefully, but only town would defuse this pointless fight that well. Not looking great for you iDany.

Atarashi are more likely town than scum

What led you to determine this before he has come back today and responded to the scum reads on him?

Atarashi won me over with his initial flurry. Obviously I could be wrong and I want to hear more from him. But I got solid town vibes from what i have seen.

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

In 376, VP Baltar says he’s pretty sure Quick and Blair are town. I don’t think town!VP Baltar asks his TR Quick about their case on TR Blair. Town!VP Baltar would only asks this if he’s scum reading at least one of Quick/Blair.

His town read post came after a Blair vs Quick so it’s possible he read that as TvT since, but that means he was scum reading Blair since he was town reading Quick in 317.

He never makes a push on Blair prior to this or expresses any sort of scum read on Blair. I think the above is disingenuous and he looking for town to eat itself here.

Vote: VP Baltar

Two things here. First, the fighting between them later definitely enforced my sense of TvT. Second, the point of me asking that question was to try to get Quick to articulate his case, which at that point felt very flimsy and undefined (at one point his reasoning to Puppy was that Blair seemed "off" because Puppy said she was good). I had hoped that by asking Quick to explain, he would be forced to acknowledge the case was weak and he might move on to a more productive path. I'll admit i did not have thorough follow through, in part because Quick's playstyle is a little exhausting for me to read.

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

So at the time of this question, Blair’s VC was 2, NPOM and Quick. NPOM voted Blair way back in 189. Quick voted Blair closer to this post in 270 while baiting “feel free to ask me for my reasoning” which makes me believe that VP Baltar is directing the above at Quick.

In 376, VP Baltar says he’s pretty sure Quick and Blair are town. I don’t think town!VP Baltar asks his TR Quick about their case on TR Blair. Town!VP Baltar would only asks this if he’s scum reading at least one of Quick/Blair.

His town read post came after a Blair vs Quick so it’s possible he read that as TvT since, but that means he was scum reading Blair since he was town reading Quick in 317.

He never makes a push on Blair prior to this or expresses any sort of scum read on Blair. I think the above is disingenuous and he looking for town to eat itself here.

Vote: VP Baltar

this is what i was talking about when i said i was waiting for juicy/tasty posts. atarashi is not off the hook, but VOTE: VP

I am jack's complete lack of surprise at this vote.

-Among active people, I think my biggest suspicion is on VP, as he seems to be trying to jump on minor more obvious things people say

Oh really? elaborate on this please..because literally just above in this post, you literally sheep my reasoning for voting votato...which is that he mischaracterizes posts.

for reference:

Also not a fan of 301 when he misinterprets what puppy is saying

And then there is this hilarious turn:

OK so I can't read today and there's only 1 vote on VP, so let's make it 2

VOTE: VP Baltar

Which is "DINGALINGALING, here comes the scum counter wagon to votato because he can't quite shake the pressure."

mavs and votato had just voted me. In fact, here is WHAT YOU LITERALLY JUST SAID IN THE PREVIOUS POST:

pedit: OK was about to vote and wanted to look for the last vote count first and

2 new votes on VP happened, brb gonna go count

Bold emphasis mine. So you knew there were two votes, and then you immediately cast a vote and tried to avoid any attention for hopping on that scummy as hell wagon by saying "oh I haven't read" and then intentionally misstated the vote count on me so people would believe you hadn't read.

Unvote, Vote: ready2rock

@Blair...

This exists... Any comment on it?

[Quick]

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

I don't recall so much snark y'day, but ok


@quick - you saying the case on gamma is better for town today or that Blair might be scum on a go nowhere wagon? Or something else I'm not interpreting correctly?

Gamma/R2R is never SvS. That is why Blair want to lynch Gamma instead. That is why R2R is a better push rn. Plus that whole lying about the vc is pretty damning I would say. That's a way better thing to push than whatever Blair is pushing about how Gamma is Scummy for being off wagon when the off wagon has a better chance to be on Scum. My read is that Blair is trying to push something creative here and that doesn't really fly when we have a lot of other leads we could follow like Dunn's hammer or mav's flippity floppity on votato. If votato is Town and R2R is Scum then that actually makes it look like there is not a whole lot of coordination going on in Scum Chat if mav is Scum with R2R, which I am not ruling out as I have mav as pretty dead Null at this point. Gamma is like way back in who I would be pushing if I was Blair, I think. Blair as Town I would push myself or R2R and possibly Dunn, but not much on Gamma who really hasn't misstepped much at all so far.

[Quick]

(If anyone thinks I'm scum on a go nowhere wagon, please reaction test me by sheeping me and running the Gamma wagon to L-1)

Quick, you've done it wrong. When you quote a giant wall post you're supposed to give your thoughts on it, THEN ask other people.

Since you didn't, I have no idea which part of it you're asking me about or why.

So you never commented on that post? Is that what you are saying? I was half expecting you to drag up your response to that post you made D1, but there

is

no response to it? That doesn't look good for you then.

:cheers:

[Quick]

You're speaking in riddles again.

If you're town, ask your actual question so I can answer it.

If you're scum, spell it out so at least other people can understand it and sheep your wagon.

Either way, being enigmatic isn't the right move here, it's just annoying.

Okay, you are Scummy for distancing yourself from VP's case on R2R. That's what can be inferred in what I posted, but you do you.

[Quick]

I referenced VP's case *while talking to you* today discussing why I don't believe VP/R2R can be SvS.

Good luck pretending you forgot that conversation. It literally just happened.

How about D1? Did you have anything to say about VP's case on R2R D1? BTW, it still holds up pretty well even with R2R's defense of what there were doing IIRC. So no comment on the actual CASE on R2R then?

That's

a straightforward question.

[Quick]

I am beginning to feel that Town is in a really bad spot and maybe R2R just has a really Scummy meta...

[Quick]

@Blair - I'm going to make the assumption that you're town for this post for the sake of not convoluting it with hypotheticals

You are/were right that my argument for NPOM being town because he had a better reason to vote r2r than 'he was one of the three non-active people voting VPB' was wrong/flawed/whatever you want to call it. I thought I saw him see the same thing I did in r2r's posts and immediately vote r2r for it and I assumed he gave that reason for his vote with the implication that he thought r2r was the scummiest of the three he mentioned when there wasn't actually anything he said to really back that up.

In retrospect I probably should have actually posted something to say that at the time when NPOM ultimately cleared it up near my last post of game-day yesterday instead of logging off but at the time I felt like saying 'hey I was totally wrong but I'm still not confident in NPOM flipping scum but I need to re-evaluate him I guess' wouldn't have actually added anything useful to the conversation. I doubt this will change your opinion of me but I am town who made a dumb assumption on behalf of someone I thought was town and I think you can see why if you look through my iso alongside NPOMs.

Yeah, but it's a chain argument that I really don't like...

"Lurkers on such and such means that such and such is Town. As such, lurkers are Scum because so and so is Town. So I will vote the player that voted such and such last because they are Scummiest for being on that wagon."

It's both convoluted logic based on generalities AND makes assumptions without probing before voting.

[Quick]

how are people not pressuring midway yet? midway's scum meta is to coast by fluffposting and posting IIoA. midway has been lurking and is now posting pure fluff/mild sheeps.
VOTE: midway

is anyone else having trouble reading quick and blair's posts? i just glaze over.

Your content is pretty Town motivated, I have to say. I will actually take you up on this rn!

VOTE: midway

[Quick]

VOTE: R2R

[Quick]

VOTE: R2R

your midway vote didnt last long... what happened there?

I'd kinda prefer Gamma not getting lynched and I really don't like any of the people voting there. Not because I dislike those people, just that I think they all have a pretty decent chance at being Scum here.

[Quick]

Also, I doubt people will follow us on midway at this time and I really don't deserve to lead another lynch this phase.

[Quick]

VOTE: R2R

your midway vote didnt last long... what happened there?

I'd kinda prefer Gamma not getting lynched and I really don't like any of the people voting there. Not because I dislike those people, just that I think they all have a pretty decent chance at being Scum here.

These posts were about an hour apart though with literally a vote count in between, why this sudden conclusion?

Oh, I also replied to Gamma and didn't get a response. Also, Midway didn't react at all to my vote on them or they went to sleep or something. It wasn't really doing anything. I still have midway as pretty Null and I would much rather vote for you. You actually gave a reaction.

[Quick]

Also, Midway didn't react at all to my vote on them or they went to sleep or something. It wasn't really doing anything.

You waited, like, what? An hour?

I am very low in conscientiousness. Which means I have poor self discipline.

[Quick]

Happy birthday, by the way.

Why should I expect that when I don't say happy B-day to other people because it's a useless holiday? Still, I appreciate the thought.

[Quick]

HOWEVER, if you were to assume it was a three scum game (which is fairly standard for this size setup unless meta around her has changed), that would mean you could have up to a 2 out of 7 chance of hitting scum on the wagon --- or roughly 28%. Any way you slice this, it doesn't feel statistically significant to me unless you assume only two scum in the game.

I would contend your math is askew, not mine.

Starting from the base assumption of this discussion (not all scum are on the wagon), and the reasonable inverse (not all scum are off the wagon) we are left with at least one scum in seven and at least one scum in four. Then, if there is a third scum, the third scum has a 2/3 chance of being on the wagon, or a 1/3 chance of being off.

Doesn't that still add up to "We have better odds off the wagon than on it"?

Are you using the same kind of logic that NPOM used that you lynched him for?

[Quick]

Side Note: I am getting an extraordinary amount of pushback on a case on someone with about 20~ posts. Not everyone townreading Gamma this firmly right now will flip town. Count on it.

Why is Gamma more Scummy than R2R?

[Quick]

I would like Blair to unpack how they know there are only 2 Scum in this game.

[Quick]

P-edit: I'll ISO him and find the quote from him, but basically when I initially looked into the vote count after you said he was lying, I started scrolling and saw "two votes," then realized one of them was actually in a quote block and thought "whoops, that's one vote, actually." I kept scrolling to make sure the quoted vote was current, and it was, but guessed that R2R probably didn't do that diligence. That ended up being his explanation, and since his explanation matched my (unstated) explanation, I'm inclined to believe it.

Looking back at this as well. He explained his reasoning in #547, which you say you believed.

But in post #570 you said this:

No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

Where is that LaL now @Blair?

BTW, some serious Déjà Vu going on in this game so far. I feel like people are going to think Blair is inno based on me pointing out the LaL thing was a lie.

[Quick]

you said he's still lying and that you'd be OK with lynching him. I don't believe you ever said yesterday that you believed his reason given. Am I missing something?

You're right, I never said I believed him yesterday.

I waffled back and forth a bit on whether or not I bought his excuse. I'm still waffling on it. It's not a verifiable thing. I was okay with testing it on Day 1, because zero information Day 1 lynches are historically risky, today I think we can do better though.

I'm not sure why Quick is pretending this doesn't exist.

When I believed R2R was lying, I was open to lynching him.

Now I am not sure if R2R was lying and would rather lynch Gamma.

In other news: Votato is openly manipulating Quick, and Quick usually notices things like that but hasn't pointed if out in this case.

This makes zero difference given:

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

I thought your agenda was to "sort" Gamma. It's a lynch now? Why? I think your reasons for wanting to lynch there are bad and you'd be better off on the R2R wagon I think.

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

R2R is a better push since it appears Gamma is the better player.

[Quick]

You're missing the forest for the trees.

Devils in the details, Blair.

Why is Gamma a better lynch than R2R when R2R was the off wagon?

[Quick]

I don't get this. Are you suggesting that there is something inherently optimal about lynching the runner-up after a mislynch?

It means Scum may be on the NPOM wagon to save R2R, duh. Thus, flipping R2R because they have a decent shot at being Scum (since second tier wagons are often on Scum) and looking at the latish voters on the Town wagon get to be Sused a lot if the off wagon flips Scum the next day. (You are Scum in both cases given R2R flips Scum here.)

Like I said, you have it backwards. We don't lynch Gamma to sort R2R, we lynch R2R to sort the NPOM wagon. Else, you are assuming R2R is Town here.

[Quick]

I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

It's pretty common and you really

should

know off wagons are usually on Scum since you play on MU.

[Quick]

I am aware that people believe it.

I am not aware of evidence of statistical significance.

Well, you are lying since you should have said that at first instead of as a defense second.

[Quick]

I'm not voting for Gamma to sort R2R.

I'm voting for Gamma to sort Gamma.

Your belief that "second tier wagons are often scum" is unsubstantiated.

what do we gain from sorting gamma via lynch? it seems that thats a pretty bad information lynch. flipping r2r gives us a lot of information about the NPOM wagon. Flipping you gives us a lot of information too.

Yeah, lynching me today would mean lynching Gamma tomorrow.

So let's skip that formality.

LOL. Unless you have a guilty on Gamma, just stop. Too much. You have too many sorts based on R2R flipping green and it's annoying.

[Quick]

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.

Scum already know if you are Cop. This has been apparent since your push on gamma at like post 1000 or so.

[Quick]

Which part do you disagree with?

And what agenda do you believe I have?

(Hint: My agenda is to lynch Gamma)

Post 1000 btw and I totally guessed there.

[Quick]

Let it be known that Quick sniffed out a PR and then spent the next 150 posts teasing a claim out of them.

I have a positive investigation on Gammagooey.

It is not a Town/Mafia result, but it is something usually exclusive to Mafia.

I need Gamma to claim so I can check their claim against my result - which I will happily share, but only after Gamma claims (if they know my result, they will know exactly what role to claim).

I am fine with this.

[Quick]

If Gamma is scum, it may be worth hunting between R2R and Dunn tomorrow, as scum may have picked up the PR tells and slid on the wagon early.

Was that a lynch or a sort on Gamma... I forget...

Spoiler:

[Quick]

The process is:

L-1

Gamma Claims

Blair Claims

If Gamma's claim doesn't fit Blair's investigation: Lynch Gamma

I'm sorry this is so hard for you to follow that you feel the need to keep asking vague, pointless questions.

They are not vague and they are not pointless. They are meant to implicate people if they have the wrong answer.

[Quick]

Gamma needs to claim his role.

Then I will claim what I learned about his role from my Night 1 investigation.

Then we will discuss if Gamma needs to be lynched. If Gamma is town, his claim will match my investigation. If Gamma is scum, he will have to fake claim based on whatever his best guess is as to my investigation. If we're lucky, he guesses wrong and becomes conf-scum.

Why [redacted] Gamma?

[Quick]

For someone who usually lives up to his name, Quick is taking a longer than usual amount of time to respond to a direct question here.

Maybe I finally stumped him.

I went to my parents house for my B-Day.

Then, someone I was kind to years ago showed up. They are now homeless. They have the same first name as myself but are opposite gender. So I came home because that person needs help and I can help them by not being involved in their life because they are obsessed with me it seems. I thought they even said there was some restraining order or something that there was for her against me.

Not making this up. I care about this person but they need help and I can help them by not being involved in their life granted they get a therapist.

[Quick]

So I came home to play mafia, not like I am actually excited about it, but whatevs. I am actually very very sad right now.

[Quick]

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

R2R is a better push since it appears Gamma is the better player.

If you thought Blair was claiming cop, why were you making posts like this?

I said I literally guessed at the 1000 post thing. Sticking by that. I did guess. It's just my guess was right.

Very weird day for me rn.

[Quick]

I side with Blair despite my method saying Gamma is Town here. No way Blair fakes that guilty like that as Scum. And if they do, then we just kill Blair and R2R. 2 for 1, would make that trade any time.

Still, let's not rush this...

[Quick]

Why is R2R connected to Blair?

I'll let you figure that out on your own.

[Quick]

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

What in the world?

Actually, not a terrible idea because Blair, theoretically, should be dead by D3.

[Quick]

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

So basically anything just not roles that involve elements of chance.

Blair is more believable here and one of them has to go.

VOTE: gamma L-1 I believe

Scummy.

[Quick]

959 is actually a good case on r2r from votato, makes me want to go back to my case on votato from d1 and figure out if i still agree with it. would be entirely happy at this point to resolve between votato/r2r from yesterday, still

yeah wtf. you can resolve that later. but today we lynch gamma. VOTE: gamma. thats L-1

Scum with Scum on top.

[Quick]

ok well thats actually a hammer

yup.

My pick for Scum team is in: [VP, Gamma, votato, Blair, R2R, Dunn]

GLHF

[Quick]

Never letting go of Blair, R2R for SvS if Gamma flips green. Also, VP can very well be Scum with both due to there being no Non-Associatives between any of them. Blair vs Myself makes sense that VP comes in to be the "good guy" if they are all Scum.

[Quick]

Never letting go of Blair, R2R for SvS if Gamma flips green. Also, VP can very well be Scum with both due to there being no Non-Associatives between any of them. Blair vs Myself makes sense that VP comes in to be the "good guy" if they are all Scum.

So why am I on that list?

IDK, you seem ignorant enough... Maybe you are just Town here. I do feel like you said something Scum would never say except to look Townie for bizarre reasons but that could have been Puppy. For now, I have you as Null.

[Quick]

Straight down the player list:

VP
Puppy
0
R2R
Gamma
Atarashi
Blair
Atarashi
0
0

Can't be Scum with each other.

[Quick]

Taking out NPOM ofc

[Quick]

And nauci

[Quick]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

[Quick]

Straight down the player list:

VP
Puppy
0
R2R
Gamma
Atarashi
Blair
Atarashi
0
0

Can't be Scum with each other.

How do I read this?

Read down the player list minus NPOM and Nauci

Those who "fit" those slots to the list cannot be SvS

[Quick]

So votato cannot be Scum with VP for example.

[Quick]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

I figured he wasn't around given he seems to go long periods of time without posting. I wanted to put L-1 and see if another scum would come in for the hammer.

They could be lurking. Not Strok logic from you here.

[Quick]

Blair, who is your pick for Scum now that you are dead D3?

[Quick]

More or less where I am with flips and subtracting myself...

Hellbooks
VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

[Quick]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

[Quick]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

why are hellbooks and r2r so high up? why is mav so far down?

R2R has Non-Associatives with Gamma. Mav has 1 Non-Associative now that players have died and he doesn't have one with Gamma.

[Quick]

Hellbooks isn't based on Hellbooks, it's based on their pred., but there is nothing there saying hellbooks cannot be teamed with Gamma. It's a general read based on Non-Associatives with Donkey and the number of posts they have.

[Quick]

we have to pressure midway today. why its so hard to get a wagon going on that guy i dont know, but i feel like its because his buddies are trying not to bus.

Agree. I would love to see the wagons on Midway and mav today...

[Quick]

I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her? Looking through her ISO she had votes on r2r and votato. She’s not the only suspecting those two. She also had 851 asking about GammaGooey that went unfulfilled before the hammer.

Looking at the votes on NPOM, I must think there was at least one scum voting there. (Yep, I was on that wagon too, I’m aware.) Quick’s case and post detailing his case I think is extremely hard for scum to fake and for him to learn hard on it, I can’t see him being scum. Blair piggybacks off this but has independent thoughts asking NPOM to scum hunt and town hunt which would suggest she was influenced by Quick’s case but did have her own reasons to suspect him. Atarashi had reason to suspect NPOM but that was very early in the game, so can’t say much about that as he’s disappeared. Dunnstral, R2R, and votato are the others and I’ve gotta think scum is most likely here.

Dunnstral

- I didn’t like the catch up and hammer. Read to me like a “sure, why not” vote. Reading the catch up, I couldn’t see conviction in a reason to hammer with the thought of NPOM flipping scum.

R2R

- I’ve gotta go back and reread the interaction between him and NPOM and see if I think this is TvT. I’m leaning a vote here right now with the flip of NPOM. The reason I won’t is cause I don’t trust my reads right now, speaking of which...

Votato

- so I was pretty vocal about reading votato as town. But with NPOM’s flip and looking through the ISOs of the voters’ this one I did have issue with, specifically the development of the NPOM vote. So 310 was awhile ago with the amount of posts this game has, but votato states here he feels strongly about Atarashi and won’t move his vote. He then flips to VP Baltar. Then again on NPOM. Seems like a drastic change from “not moving off Atarashi.” Of all the votes, this one seems to be the most hopping on a wagon. I still read the rest of his ISO as town, but the vote progression from resistance of moving his vote to willingly hopping on the NPOM wagon, I’m having serious doubts here and want a better read here.

VOTE: Vote: votato

I read over a decent chunk of the game yesterday so have some thoughts

I really dislike r2r's chunk of posts here: 637, 702, 781
637 I could definitely see a scum making as a way get away with 'oh yeah I was also scumreading them but it was minor and now that you've pointed out more I'll happily join you on this person trying to lynch me', and 702 tries to make him look like he's trying to get more info out of the wagon when I suspect he'd know that VPB was strongly scumreading him from VPB's #535 through #574 and then uses that in #782 as another reason to vote NPOM.

I still don't like his earlier jumping on of Quick v Blair being TvT (this is the thing that I thought NPOM might have voted r2r for originally along with the VPB wagon stuff, though his response after Blair and I talking about his reason for voting r2r for a bit showed that it almost definitely wasn't the case) and then explaining it with him thinking that they were town separately before that and their pushing each other felt genuine without saying why he was townreading them both before that. It felt more like him using their argument as an easy reason to read them both as town and dismiss their arguing than him really having pre-existing reads on both of them, and I still don't see why he has Blair as one of his top town reads.

If he is scum I also think Blair makes a lot of sense as his partner - I think r2r never really gave a good reason to townread Blair, she hopped off of r2r to vote NPOM after saying the below earlier, she had what I saw as her two previous scumreads (quick and r2r) on the wagon, AND she dismissed Puppy's post voting r2r in 754.

No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

But your meta argument is terrible.

VOTE: ready2rock

man, i was hoping after that atrocious hammer and missing the last few pages that i'd be nightkilled out of this game

i do want to get votato again, came into this thread two days ago to put my vote back there only to find the thread locked

any questions anyone had from yesterday that i missed, let me know and i'll answer

Thoughts:

1. Upon analysis, Gamma can talk more. Need to resolve this slot.

2. There is a lot of speculation about scum being on the NPOM wagon - which is fair, because more than half the game was on that wagon. Unless you think ALL the scum were on that wagon, however, we should probably be looking just as hard at the people who were off of it:

All seven voters from the NPOM wagon are alive today, only four of the people who were off of that wagon are alive today.

I like my odds better hunting in the group of four than the group of seven today. I do not believe it is likely that the entire scum team jumped on the Day 1 mislynch together.

That leaves at least one scum in here:

Gammagooey
VP Baltar
CantLynchAPuppy
iDanyboy

Out of that group, we can hunt for people who seemed to avoid the wagon in anticipation of a town flip. My best guesses there are Gamma and Puppy.

Gamma seemed to be reaching really hard to find a defense of NPOM where there wasn't one in their back and forth with me shortly before the lynch (not saying there was no good defense of NPOM, but the one Gamma chose fell apart upon inspection - even NPOM didn't go along with it). Gamma had very few posts during Day 1, and this awkward conversation made up about 30% of them.

Puppy swooped in to support a counterwagon with a pretty flimsy post shortly before the lynch as well.

Of those two, Gamma seems more likely to flip scum to me.

VOTE: Gammagooey

Oh, didn't mean to quote Puppy in that post, but I did want to point out how awful that post was. Is anybody buying that first line?

im not buying any of it. who would want to vote for me

Me. But the Blair/R2R pairing makes waaaaay more sense than you/R2R.

UNVOTE: Votato

Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

@VP Baltar: where does Puppy’s LAMIST post compare with mine?

This progression from mav is wacky - especially if mav is SvS with Gamma... Not seeing that clear analytical process from mav here... looks more like panic.

[Quick]

Big burrito from chipotle with extra of the hottest salsa they have. I am full and that was good.

[Quick]

More or less where I am with flips and subtracting myself...

Hellbooks
VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

Where's midway on this list?

(And definitely burrito jealous)

Based on the time I made that list, midway was unreadable according to what I use. It was intentional to keep them off the list.

[Quick]

Based on the time I made that list, midway was unreadable according to what I use. It was intentional to keep them off the list.

How do you determine your reads again? I am intrigued because I recall that you do something different than most players.

PoE and accounting for # of posts.

[Quick]

Based on the time I made that list, midway was unreadable according to what I use. It was intentional to keep them off the list.

How do you determine your reads again? I am intrigued because I recall that you do something different than most players.

PoE and accounting for # of posts.

Midway rn...

[Quick]

your town meta is to hard tunnel and vocally not contribute. as town you are very loud as well as useless. and you still havent explained a single one of your scum reads.

ok so if my town meta is basically my scum meta, then do you really think I am scum?

theyre very different. as scum you lurk and dont post much. as town you are really loud and spam the thread with bad posts. in this game you have been lurky, aka scummy

do you want me to spam?? I'm trying to do that less and start giving better posts

I thought you could tone read me well. What happened to that? Am I suddenly "hard to read"? why?

[Quick]

the stuff you quoted is entirely unrelated btw. Yes, I recall saying that somewhere, but I think I was being too cocky in myself when I said that. TBH, you are hard to read especially if you are actually doing the thing where you play as town even when you are scum. I was only able to toneread you that once because you were under pressure. TBH there hasn't really been much pressure on you this game(which isn't necessarily a bad thing), but I feel like pressure is how I can read you and it hasn't been there.

I think this is bs. What do you think of that?

[Quick]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

Votato is saying he did not see VP's post; doesn't that make Votato's vote just as bad?

votato just seems Town to me... I find it... hypocritical of you to say this though.

[Quick]

after reading blair's arguments yesterday i really want to go after quick or votato, blair clearly felt pressured yesterday and i'm not sure that was all town pressing her

idk about this argument. If you're referring to the claim that was all quick's doing.

I do see Votato as scummy/scum with Gamma

VOTE: Votato

Where?

[Quick]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

Votato is saying he did not see VP's post; doesn't that make Votato's vote just as bad?

votato just seems Town to me... I find it... hypocritical of you to say this though.

Me being hypocritical doesn't discount my point, does it?

Isn't Votato in your scumread area? How am I supposed to read your reads list?

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I guess the best way to read my thought process on VP/votato is that there is Scum in one of them, but not both.

[Quick]

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.

Scum already know if you are Cop. This has been apparent since your push on gamma at like post 1000 or so.

Let it be known that Quick sniffed out a PR and then spent the next 150 posts teasing a claim out of them.

I have a positive investigation on Gammagooey.

It is not a Town/Mafia result, but it is something usually exclusive to Mafia.

I need Gamma to claim so I can check their claim against my result - which I will happily share, but only after Gamma claims (if they know my result, they will know exactly what role to claim).

I'm talking about this

I assumed Puppy meant that Blair feeling pressured was the reason that she claimed, but that was your doing and seems unrelated to pressure on her - do you disagree with that assessment?

I think at the time I "outed the cop" (pretty blatantly, I would add) that mafia probably was way ahead of me with that. I literally didn't know Blair was Cop until I mentioned it. Then I literally guessed (which meant to be general and not specific post number) what post it was.

If I get strung up for being right on a guess, I am adding that to my wiki.

[Quick]

That is one of the most anti-town posts in this game.

Scum already know if you are Cop. This has been apparent since your push on gamma at like post 1000 or so.

Let it be known that Quick sniffed out a PR and then spent the next 150 posts teasing a claim out of them.

I have a positive investigation on Gammagooey.

It is not a Town/Mafia result, but it is something usually exclusive to Mafia.

I need Gamma to claim so I can check their claim against my result - which I will happily share, but only after Gamma claims (if they know my result, they will know exactly what role to claim).

I'm talking about this

I assumed Puppy meant that Blair feeling pressured was the reason that she claimed, but that was your doing and seems unrelated to pressure on her - do you disagree with that assessment?

I was asking about your SvS with votato/Gamma, not this other thing because I really don't care about that as I am inno.

[Quick]

Am I wrong in assuming there should be some sort of protective role with a Strongman? Not sure why Blair wasn't protected unless all we have is a JK.

[Quick]

Should I be able to get that from the list you posted?

No. You would have to know my stance as a whole on those two. I have "conflicting reads" based on analyzing things from different perspectives.

[Quick]

Looking at Quick and puppy to vote mavs with me.
VOTE: mavsfan

I still have mav as fairly Null based on play alone. I would rather go midway and I really don't like that the wagon switched on between you and mav. That just gives me bad vibes honestly.

[Quick]

I’m TR’ing VP Baltar and Dunnstral. But as far as I’m concerned, they could still be scum. The players I’ve excluded I don’t believe can be scum.

Where is your midway read? And why is VP Town for you here? Anything he has written you think he can't fake?

[Quick]

Midway is looking better and I kinda hate mav's reads... Might go that way if it's between Hellbooks and mav here. Still, wouldn't mind a wagon on Midway.

@votato, how are you feeling about midway lately?

[Quick]

VOTE: ready2rock

I can actually buy the votecount shenanigans as being a genuine mistake given that I don't really see the point of doing it as scum, but him saying he thinks that votato looked bad for misinterpreting something while voting VPB (for voting people over minor things if I remember correctly) while VPB is voting votato for the exact reason he mentioned feels pretty gross.
I usually give townpoints in my head to people town or scumreading people for the same reasons I am if they post about it before I get to it, and him mentioning votato feeling bad for that and then voting VPB feels like an excuse for a vote instead of an honest reason to think VPB is scum.

@ready - What makes you think Blair vs Quick is TvT? I know Puppy mentioned a reason for it earlier but do you agree with what he said or do you have your own for it?

It's partially out of my reads of them being town before they started their back and forth, then when they started their discussion with each other the way they were pushing each other felt genuine on both ends

why were you reading them both as TvT beforehand then?

Hey r2r, you didn't respond to this earlier - could you answer it for me?

@ready - What makes you think Blair vs Quick is TvT? I know Puppy mentioned a reason for it earlier but do you agree with what he said or do you have your own for it?

It's partially out of my reads of them being town before they started their back and forth, then when they started their discussion with each other the way they were pushing each other felt genuine on both ends

why were you reading them both as TvT beforehand then?

Also I'm liking mav's recent posts, esp. his #687 feels like a genuine thought process from him[/quote]

I read over a decent chunk of the game yesterday so have some thoughts

I really dislike r2r's chunk of posts here: 637, 702, 781
637 I could definitely see a scum making as a way get away with 'oh yeah I was also scumreading them but it was minor and now that you've pointed out more I'll happily join you on this person trying to lynch me', and 702 tries to make him look like he's trying to get more info out of the wagon when I suspect he'd know that VPB was strongly scumreading him from VPB's #535 through #574 and then uses that in #782 as another reason to vote NPOM.

I still don't like his earlier jumping on of Quick v Blair being TvT (this is the thing that I thought NPOM might have voted r2r for originally along with the VPB wagon stuff, though his response after Blair and I talking about his reason for voting r2r for a bit showed that it almost definitely wasn't the case) and then explaining it with him thinking that they were town separately before that and their pushing each other felt genuine without saying why he was townreading them both before that. It felt more like him using their argument as an easy reason to read them both as town and dismiss their arguing than him really having pre-existing reads on both of them, and I still don't see why he has Blair as one of his top town reads.

If he is scum I also think Blair makes a lot of sense as his partner - I think r2r never really gave a good reason to townread Blair, she hopped off of r2r to vote NPOM after saying the below earlier, she had what I saw as her two previous scumreads (quick and r2r) on the wagon, AND she dismissed Puppy's post voting r2r in 754.

No, I think R2R lied about the vote count for some unknowable reason. I pretty plainly said I'd be okay with lynching him today if I can't have Quick.

But your meta argument is terrible.

VOTE: ready2rock

All these tend to indicate to me that R2R isn't SvS with Gamma. Also worth noting is that the last post here really looks like this is a real case with intent to lynch R2R.

It's for this reason that I am clearing R2R from being Scum..

HOWEVER... R2R had very poor follow though with Gamma which could mean they are teamed.

[Quick]

For various reasons, I think scum is EXCLUSIVELY within these spots:
Dunnstral
Hellbrooks
VP Baltar
puppy
Quick

@Mav, don't get this list at all and feel it needs to be unpacked badly.

[Quick]

Idk to be honest because I heard tonereads are generally unreliable. There's not really any logic, but it's more like:does this sound more townie or scummy? I toneread Quick once and I'm happy about that. It's not how I mainly try to scumhunt though.

I guess I just noticed you mentioned it alot. And when I looked back at some of your games, I didn't see you talk about it nearly as much (though you briefly mentioned it as either alignment.)

Have you successfully read Quick as either alignment or only as town?

Also, you've never played with me, and yet you're applying this tone read approach to me. How is that reliable?

Keep in mind this is midways like less than 10th Forum Mafia game IIRC. So it's natural he has no idea what he is doing.

[Quick]

For various reasons, I think scum is EXCLUSIVELY within these spots:
Dunnstral
Hellbrooks
VP Baltar
puppy
Quick

Dunnstral

he was the first to hop onto the Gamma lynch right after Blair. I don’t think he has the grapes to bus his partner that early, but I’m not sure. So for now, he’s town in my book.

VP Baltar

he seems to actually be helping town out and trying to figure things out. Town read here. (And for what it’s worth, early game he asked for what abbreviations meant where if he was in a private chat, wouldn’t have done that? Sure, flimsy, but no reason real good reason why I think he’s scum).

As for the others....

Quick

he is almost impossible to read. He’s done massively scummy things but also pro town. His case on R2R I think is super hard to fake.

Puppy

he appeared to double down sorta on Gamma AFTER the hammer. I read Gamma as town as well, so I could see this.

And.....

hellbrooks

I think puppy/Quick, one is scum. I can’t see them both being scum. Hellbrooks of the Ayers I’ve narrowed down strikes me as most likely scum. He hasn’t offered much.

VOTE: hellbrooks

Why am I in your list of scum spots if I'm town in your book?

I will go check rn but I am pretty sure you are soft cleared from being Scum IIRC. The problem is it's not

as many

Non-Associatives as R2R but will check to see how legit it is.. Hang on...

Okay... It checks out. Somewhat willing to clear you based of the Non-Associative I have with you.

BTW, mav's logic that I could be Scum with Gamma kinda checks out, but I do NOT understand the rest of the list tbh...

[Quick]

How does his read on me differ from someone not on the list, like Votato?

That is an excellent question. That is why it needs to be unpacked.

[Quick]

yeah this is my 6th or 7th game depending on how you want to look at it. I hope I don't look like a total noob though

To be fair, your later content lately has been a lot better. I can tell you are getting better already. I also don't really see you as Scum as much as I did at SoD.

[Quick]

What do you think about the way he is buddying you quick?

Haven't noticed tbh. Doesn't really feel like buddying to me. Feels more like he is just being honest. Iunno exactly.

I still stick by that one of VP/votato is Scum but don't know which one exactly. That will be fun for LyLo if that happens.

[Quick]

yeah this is my 6th or 7th game depending on how you want to look at it. I hope I don't look like a total noob though

To be fair, your later content lately has been a lot better. I can tell you are getting better already. I also don't really see you as Scum as much as I did at SoD.

has it? can you point to any reads that are original and insightful and justified with evidence?

It's not really about any of that. It more has to do with the maturity that he is taking the game to be. I sense growth in that area. He now knows there is a lot more to this game and is taking it a lot more seriously. And I like that.

[Quick]

yeah this is my 6th or 7th game depending on how you want to look at it. I hope I don't look like a total noob though

To be fair, your later content lately has been a lot better. I can tell you are getting better already. I also don't really see you as Scum as much as I did at SoD.

has it? can you point to any reads that are original and insightful and justified with evidence?

BTW, how many games have you played so far? Just curious because I thought you were a newb, but I did remark that some of your more effortful posts were completely unexpected.

[Quick]

Haven't noticed tbh.

I will take that as a compliment either way. Thanks

What does that actually tell you alignment wise?

[Quick]

The players omitted I have various reasons for believing they’re town. Dunnstral would be in there based on the fact that he jumped on Gamma right after Blair and I don’t see that as a bus’ing scenario. This would be the complimentary way of believing R2R is town based on how Gamma tried to get R2R lynched twice. Sure, the day 1 you might WIFOM, but his push again in day 2 erases all doubt for me and where I think Gamma was attempting to lead a mislynch of R2R. So Dunnstral, I do believe is town but that can be checked, so I’ll wait for confirmation on that spot but not a top priority for me based on how quick he was to jump onto the Gamma lynch in a non-bus’ing scenario.

The players I have listed, I don’t have them all as scum reads, I’m just saying that they’re unknown but this is where I personally will be focused and my vote will go there shy of a cop’s hard guilty (but I really don’t believe the people omitted could possibly be scum). I’ve given my thoughts on VP and I think he is town. Quick/Puppy/hellbrooks. I find this to be the most likely grouping to yield 2 scum (assuming a 3 scum setup). I don’t particularly read Quick/Puppy as super scummy, but possible scum based of process of elimination and just less town than VP (but I want to do a full iso review of VP). The hellbrooks slot is weird. Atarashi I did read early game as town. I’m not a flat earther, but considering how he fell off the face of the earth, maybe
Hellbrooks hasn’t been in the game too much and between her group of posts and Atarashi’s short lived time in this game, there’s just not much there.

What if I said you could be Scum with VP. How would you feel about that?

[Quick]

@Quick: it would fit, so I do think it’s possible. 926 & 927 I think are funny compared to my list (but that was 500 posts ago so might have changed). Is that a confession by the way? If you were to be scum, are you saying VP is your scum buddy? If not, who would most likely be your scum buddy?

Why would I do that if I was Scum?

[Quick]

Can you explain why you didnt join the Gamma wagon at the point you realized she was a cop (of sorts)? Why did you feel it necessary to push all of it into the open?

I did join the Gamma wagon. I clearly said, "I will side with Blair" but I was hoping there would be more time in the day for me to analyze stuff based on what Gamma was going to say, but then they got hammered. I wasn't the one wanting to end the day prematurely, that was you and to a lesser extent, votato.

[Quick]

@Quick: are you and Hellbooks a scum pairing?

Not at all. Looking at hellbooks content, it seems pretty good and doesn't seem like there is much of an agenda there.

[Quick]

I side with Blair despite my method saying Gamma is Town here. No way Blair fakes that guilty like that as Scum. And if they do, then we just kill Blair and R2R. 2 for 1, would make that trade any time.

Still, let's not rush this...

@VP

[Quick]

If you were reading her as a cop, why not try to force the gamma wagon without outing her?

Probably because, like I have said a million times already, Scum was already probably 3-4 steps ahead of me. If I can pick up that Blair is cop and I am normally PR blind (which I am, but I do have a special ability of finding VT) then it's pretty obvious Scum already knew Blair was cop pages and pages ago. I didn't actually do any harm as far as I can see. Besides, what Scum motive is there for outing the cop as Scum?

[Quick]

VOTE: mav

[Quick]

L-1 BTW.

[Quick]

If you were reading her as a cop, why not try to force the gamma wagon without outing her?

Probably because, like I have said a million times already, Scum was already probably 3-4 steps ahead of me. If I can pick up that Blair is cop and I am normally PR blind (which I am, but I do have a special ability of finding VT) then it's pretty obvious Scum already knew Blair was cop pages and pages ago. I didn't actually do any harm as far as I can see. Besides, what Scum motive is there for outing the cop as Scum?

There absolutely is incentive to talk about PRs as scum. It gives a scum team more information to go off to fish them out the more people talk about.

Perhaps you disagree as a town philosophy, but that's generally how I think. The mafia team already has more info, so why give them anymore?

You are the guy obsessing about talking about PRs, not me.

[Quick]

Besides, I'd rather be a lynch candidate at this point so I can destroy Scum in LyLo.

Play carefully Scum, I am very dangerous late game.

[Quick]

Quick's avoidance of actually explaining why his strategy in that situation is better than what I presented is noted. I haven't said one word about PRs as far as I know, especially pre-Blair claim.

[Quick]

Besides, I'd rather be a lynch candidate at this point so I can destroy Scum in LyLo.

Play carefully Scum, I am very dangerous late game.

LAMIST boi

Now I know you are Town. Why are you listening to VP about me? VP has a pretty good shot at being Scum for multiple reasons.

[Quick]

i am not, but I wanted to point out how that was LAMIST
and what he said had a point

Bro, I didn't say that comment for Town... I said that comment for Scum. Dead serious... Scum do NOT want me around late game.

[Quick]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I'm scum now? I was no.2 on this list before. Color me confused beyond asking you legitimate questions.

Your fake confusion is bs. Pretty sure I have talked about having conflicting reads based on different methods of approach.

[Quick]

R2R is basically confirmed town via the push of Gamma.

Way too quick to confirm R2R Town given R2R had shit follow through with Gamma.

[Quick]

@mav, are you aware votato is a newbie? How exactly do you figure votato could have picked up on that?

[Quick]

Does anyone know if midway bear is fruitless?

ohh that's why you asked that question. I get it know. I trust u

Bad move bro. Don't trust it. Mav picked a "convenient" time to out his solve.

[Quick]

@mav, are you aware votato is a newbie? How exactly do you figure votato could have picked up on that?

i mean even I found it odd, and I am newbie too. If votato is mav's counterrole, it should be pretty obvious.

Well, we are not doing shit of lynching anyone until we get all the claims out.

I'm VT.

[Quick]

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I'm scum now? I was no.2 on this list before. Color me confused beyond asking you legitimate questions.

Your fake confusion is bs. Pretty sure I have talked about having conflicting reads based on different methods of approach.

I'm 100% fine with conflicting reads. I'm definitely feeling that after some misreads in this game. What I am pointing out is your reaction to being questioned is calling your questioner scum rather than just answering the question. I don't see the value in that.

I think there is value in testing our own assumptions, hence why I wanted to ask you to explain your thought process around the claim after feeling reasonably good about you for much of the game. Immediately OMGUSing me because of that ain't a good look.

Claim noted, waiting for votato response

Except I have reason to based on reactions to questions... duh... You going to talk about how I read slots now or not? Cuz you can fake ignorance on that as well.

[Quick]

I'm not moving my vote till I see what votato has to say.

[Quick]

why are we even assuming there is a fruit checker. I did not recieve fruit

I like you, but you're crazy

yeah. I'm crazy good

Pocket attempt: accepted.

[Quick]

bruh what? That wasn't even addressed at you

You done got pocketed, bro.

[Quick]

Y'all can lynch me, but not until I say what I have to say. How does that sound? Then once I am dead you can see I was right. How does that sound Midway? Also, it's not D1 anymore, it's D3.

[Quick]

Y'all can lynch me, but not until I say what I have to say. How does that sound? Then once I am dead you can see I was right. How does that sound Midway? Also, it's not D1 anymore, it's D3.

pcoket attempt:denied
idk if i will trust the same tonerads

Bro, you are Town... hellbooks is Town based on that unvote. Dunn is Town based on Non-Associative with Gamma and R2R is Town based on TWO Non-Associatives with Gamma. You do the math, who does that leave? VP is just Scum based on this:

Hi, stop blowing up my spot. I do not want to get NKed

This was to puppy

Which is a soft. And if we look here:

@VP, how do we know you are not pushing miss lynch bait?

I don't even know Miss Lynch...

I kid, I kid.

I think votato is what many might call a "wedge issue." I'm not much of a fan of the poor logic or "fuck you" reaction to being questioned. It feels like inexperienced scum to me ... which is low hanging fruit, but the delicious kind. That being said, I can see people reading that as town or scum...hence why I'm trying to get people on the record on votato. At the very least, I think this conversation will be fruitful for town later. (Much more so than the 'everyone have a single vote on your favorite scum' status we were at in the last vote count.)

We can see Scum wanted to use the idea of a fruit vender all along. Unlucky for VP is that mav had to use it and not VP. Otherwise this was Scum't play all along unless mav actually softed at some point. Will be interesting to see if they had...

[Quick]

Quick's avoidance of actually explaining why his strategy in that situation is better than what I presented is noted. I haven't said one word about PRs as far as I know, especially pre-Blair claim.

Quoting for emphasis.

[Quick]

God damnit. Votato, did you see my vote in pedit when you posted.

Yours is actually Scummier because of self hammer.

Votato is saying he did not see VP's post; doesn't that make Votato's vote just as bad?

votato just seems Town to me... I find it... hypocritical of you to say this though.

Me being hypocritical doesn't discount my point, does it?

Isn't Votato in your scumread area? How am I supposed to read your reads list?

Probably should be closer to this:

Hellbooks, VP, R2R
Puppy, votato, Dunn
mav

I guess the best way to read my thought process on VP/votato is that there is Scum in one of them, but not both.

And I've held to that. Then mav comes in and implicates votato. Bad move Scum.

[Quick]

Sorry to hear that, Quick.

To catch you up: We caught scum.

like why is she acknowledging r2r is prob scum and then pivoting to a Gamma case...huh?

There are really only two explanations:

1. Gamma is town; Blair is scum with Ready2Rock

2. Blair feels more confident in her Gamma read.

Occam's Razor might be prudent here.

R2R is a better push since it appears Gamma is the better player.

If you thought Blair was claiming cop, why were you making posts like this?

I said I literally guessed at the 1000 post thing. Sticking by that. I did guess. It's just my guess was right.

Very weird day for me rn.

I side with Blair despite my method saying Gamma is Town here. No way Blair fakes that guilty like that as Scum. And if they do, then we just kill Blair and R2R. 2 for 1, would make that trade any time.

Still, let's not rush this...

And here's my thought process immediately after all that.

[Quick]

Nevermind, I see what you're talking about; they only claimed vig as a response to Blair claiming a guilty in the first place

Bingo. And they thought they could get away with claiming vig because of NPOM.

[Quick]

"Hey did you get fruit last night"

"yea"

"you're mafia"

ohh i see, but now everyone knows so it's useless
hmm. Then mavs played this pretty bad. He could have first claimed fruit vendor and then asked you and I if we got fruit. Ugh

Yeah, and mav is NOT that sloppy IMO. His early content was good but he tanked hard after Gamma got run up.

[Quick]

Basically, he's tilted as Scum.

[Quick]

Guys, I'm pretty sure "fruit checker" isn't a normal role, and this is a normal game - they've abolished the greylist a while back, such a role doesn't exist in this game, I'm pretty sure

ok, so VPB probably scum

You mean with Mavs as well?

I kind of believe Mavs claim. I don't like Votato.

Guys, I'm pretty sure "fruit checker" isn't a normal role, and this is a normal game - they've abolished the greylist a while back, such a role doesn't exist in this game, I'm pretty sure

Tell me how this makes sense.

[Quick]

Guys, I'm pretty sure "fruit checker" isn't a normal role, and this is a normal game - they've abolished the greylist a while back, such a role doesn't exist in this game, I'm pretty sure

ok, so VPB probably scum

You mean with Mavs as well?

I kind of believe Mavs claim. I don't like Votato.

Guys, I'm pretty sure "fruit checker" isn't a normal role, and this is a normal game - they've abolished the greylist a while back, such a role doesn't exist in this game, I'm pretty sure

Tell me how this makes sense.

What do you mean? I'm talking about two different things here:

Mav's claim: Disloyal fruit vendor

What he thinks votato is: 'Fruit Checker' - this is what I'm pretty sure isn't a real role

VT is my favorite role because it's the least complicated and most straight forward.

I leave the claims to the birds.

[Quick]

i have a suspicion why you are saying this, yet I still am confused

You should see my Scum game. Never had to claim a BS role.

[Quick]

??? I was confused why you brought up VT when it seemed totally irrelevant.

VT is always relevant

[Quick]

theres also really no need to kill the slot since its potentially verifiable.

Huh? Am I missing something?

They said Watcher or Voyeur

I disagree, I think any more town investigatives would be too many town investigatives

We don't know what Scum have. All we have so far are 2 claimed roles that are dead. SM usually implies a saving role. It's for this reason I believe votato over mav.

[Quick]

i dont like the way the claim was done. if i were a disloyal fruit vendor being forced to claim on day 3, id not reveal the disloyal portion, and ask the fruit recipients to claim whether they got fruit, and only reveal the disloyal portion after they said whether they had fruit.

Again, it's sloppy because mav got nervous when Gamma got outed.

[Quick]

DID votato ever get fruit?

[Quick]

I’ll be honest, I had a slight scum read on Nauci. Anyone have a hypothesis on why it was her? Looking through her ISO she had votes on r2r and votato. She’s not the only suspecting those two. She also had 851 asking about GammaGooey that went unfulfilled before the hammer.

Looking at the votes on NPOM, I must think there was at least one scum voting there. (Yep, I was on that wagon too, I’m aware.) Quick’s case and post detailing his case I think is extremely hard for scum to fake and for him to learn hard on it, I can’t see him being scum. Blair piggybacks off this but has independent thoughts asking NPOM to scum hunt and town hunt which would suggest she was influenced by Quick’s case but did have her own reasons to suspect him. Atarashi had reason to suspect NPOM but that was very early in the game, so can’t say much about that as he’s disappeared. Dunnstral, R2R, and votato are the others and I’ve gotta think scum is most likely here.

Dunnstral

- I didn’t like the catch up and hammer. Read to me like a “sure, why not” vote. Reading the catch up, I couldn’t see conviction in a reason to hammer with the thought of NPOM flipping scum.

R2R

- I’ve gotta go back and reread the interaction between him and NPOM and see if I think this is TvT. I’m leaning a vote here right now with the flip of NPOM. The reason I won’t is cause I don’t trust my reads right now, speaking of which...

Votato

- so I was pretty vocal about reading votato as town. But with NPOM’s flip and looking through the ISOs of the voters’ this one I did have issue with, specifically the development of the NPOM vote. So 310 was awhile ago with the amount of posts this game has, but votato states here he feels strongly about Atarashi and won’t move his vote. He then flips to VP Baltar. Then again on NPOM. Seems like a drastic change from “not moving off Atarashi.” Of all the votes, this one seems to be the most hopping on a wagon. I still read the rest of his ISO as town, but the vote progression from resistance of moving his vote to willingly hopping on the NPOM wagon, I’m having serious doubts here and want a better read here.

VOTE: Vote: votato

Oh, didn't mean to quote Puppy in that post, but I did want to point out how awful that post was. Is anybody buying that first line?

im not buying any of it. who would want to vote for me

Me. But the Blair/R2R pairing makes waaaaay more sense than you/R2R.

UNVOTE: Votato

Blair’s wagon theory does make sense but I would pursue Puppy over GammaGooey here.

@VP Baltar: where does Puppy’s LAMIST post compare with mine?

Whoops, forgot to do this:
VOTE: ready2rock

Mav's vote progression D2...

[Quick]

@VP: I did lots of looking through Gamma’s posts as well. I feel pretty confident that R2R is absolutely town. The day 1 push of R2R does not strike me as a bus’ing of scum and then the day 2 pursuit of R2R absolves him in full for me.

Quick and Puppy coming up a lot and Gamma defends Puppy more than anyone I feel always reading him as town and seeming to defend him.

As for midway bear, 1190 is awkward right? The reads like a refusal to bus with the pedit section bus’ing as fast as possible. It reads almost too close to how Gamma was trying to form a fake claim to defend against Blair’s reveal. Thoughts on this?

VOTE: midway bear

UNVOTE: midway bear

For various reasons, I think scum is EXCLUSIVELY within these spots:
Dunnstral
Hellbrooks
VP Baltar
puppy
Quick

Dunnstral

he was the first to hop onto the Gamma lynch right after Blair. I don’t think he has the grapes to bus his partner that early, but I’m not sure. So for now, he’s town in my book.

VP Baltar

he seems to actually be helping town out and trying to figure things out. Town read here. (And for what it’s worth, early game he asked for what abbreviations meant where if he was in a private chat, wouldn’t have done that? Sure, flimsy, but no reason real good reason why I think he’s scum).

As for the others....

Quick

he is almost impossible to read. He’s done massively scummy things but also pro town. His case on R2R I think is super hard to fake.

Puppy

he appeared to double down sorta on Gamma AFTER the hammer. I read Gamma as town as well, so I could see this.

And.....

hellbrooks

I think puppy/Quick, one is scum. I can’t see them both being scum. Hellbrooks of the Ayers I’ve narrowed down strikes me as most likely scum. He hasn’t offered much.

VOTE: hellbrooks

yeah i doubt votato is fruit checker, I think he just used fruitless as an insult to me
we either get quick or votato today probably not hellbooks

UNVOTE: Hellbooks

I hate the votato pendulum. Up until the intent to hammer, I had votato as DEFINITELY town. Now I have him as null but scummy.

Also, bad news for you midway.... if votato isn’t the fruit checker, that means you’re not confirmed townie (unless someone does want to say how midway bear is fruitless). Votato messing up my reads.

Pretty much only votes/unvotes on Town from what I can tell...

[Quick]

DID votato ever get fruit?

he already claimed that he gave fruit to dunnstral and midway. but didnt give them an opportunity to reveal whether they had fruit until they knew only scum would get fruit. so we have no clear whatsoever on either slot regardless of how mav flips (maybe a slight clear if mav!town = true, since neither of them picked up on the fruit crumbs)

Ah, so he has pretty much zero conclusive evidence that you are Scum. Thanks. You've done good this game. Better than midway even, I would say.

[Quick]

So Dunnstral, I do believe is town but that can be checked, so I’ll wait for confirmation on that spot but not a top priority for me based on how quick he was to jump onto the Gamma lynch in a non-bus’ing scenario.

IMO towny post if you take his claim into consideration

I'd rather you look at mav's stance on me than yourself to see how Townie mav really is.

[Quick]

Why is his stance on you important though

Because you are looking at a players stance on another player and not yourself. It would help the rest of Town to do those kinds of reads instead of reads based on yourself. Those kinds of reads don't really hold their weight because no one should just "trust" you are town and acting in "good faith".

But I don't really play the game based on who reads who what, never have... well, I did once and it didn't work out so well, so I ditched it. Point being, IF you are going to give reads based on reads other players have, they should be based on reads on other people and not yourself. Does a lot more for producing content as well. Otherwise things get static if everyone reads everyone else based on how people read themselves.

[Quick]

But his read on me is important because of his claim

It's still a read based on you about you. That was the point. Their read is important to you and only you if we use your logic. If we use my logic, then it's better to see how someone reads other players that are in the game so you can analyze how someone views other players in comparison to how you view them.

[Quick]

So it’s entirely possible I fucked up the role, but having me just ask “hey, do y’all have fruit?” Without any type of confirmation whatsoever other than on my flip seems pretty insane. I mean, I claimed and some people still don’t buy it. So, yes, I assumed it would be some sort of “fruit checker” role if you would, that could give confirmation. Scum could lie and guess right and that’s it and it seems entirely possible. If somehow I tagged two scum and in the PT they discuss this and cut their losses and have one claim “yes” and the other say “no”, then you’d have town the wrong way without any confirmation whatsoever with that scenario potentially be disastrous for town.

@Dunnstral: yep, the grape comment was about tagging your during night 1

@Quick: my stance on you? I don’t know if you’re incredibly anti town or scum. If you do get me lynched, upon my flip, you’re fucked. It’s going to be pretty hard to get out of a lynch the following day, and that would suck quite a bit if you’re town. town!Quick come day 4 will be the biggest mislynch fodder ever. You pushed Blair into a claim then didn’t really buy that. 1238 & 1239 look horrible with Gamma’s flip. As for your Gamma link with me, not gonna lie, I had Gamma pegged for town to the point I did think a Blair/Dunn/R2R scenario was more likely than a Gamma scum scenario of any kind. So upon Gamma’s flip, yep, kinda fell apart as all my reads fell apart. Then I formed other reads with a possible Puppy/hellbooks or Quick/hellbooks or Quick/Puppy team until votato fucked my read and I potential fucked my role (but again, that was L-1 with intent to hammer) and the “hey, y’all have fruit” could’ve just been avoided altogether leading to nothing. There has to be some sorta complimentary role that can confirm whether or not players have fruit.

Closer to the end of the game is generally where I do more cases...

[Quick]

What happens if you don’t make it to end game cause you’re lynched immediately on day 4?

I'll risk it. Usually if I make it past D3 I am pretty good about not getting lynched. The longer the game goes on, the less chance there is of me getting lynched as a general rule.

[Quick]

Votato/mavs scumteam

Still plausible or out of the question?

To clarify

My thought in looking at this is that exactly one of these two are scum, and right now I trust votato moreso than mavs, but I'm willing to hear if other people think there are scenarios where they're both town or both scum

Good thoughts.

How would you compare this with my thought that there is one Scum in VP/votato?

[Quick]

Votato/mavs scumteam

Still plausible or out of the question?

To clarify

My thought in looking at this is that exactly one of these two are scum, and right now I trust votato moreso than mavs, but I'm willing to hear if other people think there are scenarios where they're both town or both scum

Good thoughts.

How would you compare this with my thought that there is one Scum in VP/votato?

That's possible, I just think for a possible lynch today there's more to go off with mavs/votato because of the claims (or lack thereof)

But willing to hear counterarguments

I haven't changed my vote. I would say.. keep it at votato/mav at this point. We have a lot of time left and things can develop rather quickly if this isn't a short Day.

[Quick]

VOTE: Quick

I'm inclined to believe Mavs here. The claim is too detailed and breadcrumbed to be scum I think. He also reads genuine to me when he admits he messed up the role and made a bad assumption about how it worked.

Meanwhile, quick's behavior today has been quite telling. His unwillingness to answer questions around the Blair claim (particularly since he is now claiming he picked up on the investigation sooner than most of us but didn't vote Gamma or try to keep it under wraps), and now his efforts around the mavs claim to get a town mass claim (on day 2, ok what?) don't make a lot of sense as town.

He also absurdly tries to paint me as in on some elaborate fake claim plan by going to my iso and Ctrl+fing for the word "fruit" and saying I'm soft claiming because that happened to be there.... Which is probably the most contrived thing I've read in a long time.

Nope. I F3'd: "not want" I think.

[Quick]

I can't remember all the things I searched trying to find the post you talked about PRs, but I remembered it because I thought it was important. It

is

important since you said you never talked about PRs in the game and you had.. about yourself.. with a really obvious soft... because you know you are never getting NKed... I think that's all.

The fruit thing is just a bonus. It's actually that you just blatantly lied about talking about PRs.

[Quick]

Here is an exercise that I did yesterday and I think is worthwhile everyone doing: Pull back to a 30,000 foot view and try to sum up what Quick has done to actually help town in this game. What actions has he taken that have had a net positive outcome?

When I did this and set aside the fine level detail of being a very active poster (which I think many of us have gotten town vibes off of, but upon closer view may not be a meta tell at all), I had a very hard time coming up with a good list.

A lot of town negatives came to mind though:

-Quick helped push an NPOM mislynch.
-He's outted power roles and role fished, all while trying to pretend those are pro town.
-He has offered lots of absolutist opinions that he claims are unquestionable because of The System (votato and VPB must be a scum source because of a simulpost!), all while proving very little with said system (see NPOM mislynch above, missing Gamma scum, and now inexplicably sticking with what could be a Mavs mislynch).
-Promises that if we just keep him around to late game, he will deliver scum on a silver platter.
-The weird "go ahead and lynch me then!" when there weren't even any votes on him.

A pairing of Quick/Gamma isn't outside the realm of possibility and I'm having less and less of a good feeling about him . I'd like other players to consider the above thought experiment and try to see how they think Quick has actually helped town after several days of play and results.

You're acting in bad faith. Plus, does lack of Town utility actually = Scum or is this just an excuse to get votes on me?

[Quick]

You're acting in bad faith. Plus, does lack of Town utility actually = Scum or is this just an excuse to get votes on me?

How am I acting in bad faith? All of those things are very clearly true.

My case is that you have actually done things to hurt town, and are a possible alignment to Gamma...I think there is a decent chance you are scum, and yes people should vote for you. It is certainly a better move for us than lynching Mavs when his claim is far too detailed to likely be fake.

Bad faith = painting me solely in a negative light. Hence, it's either confbias or you are Scum because there is zero nuance to your read on me.

[Quick]

[Quick]

Bad faith = painting me solely in a negative light. Hence, it's either confbias or you are Scum because there is zero nuance to your read on me.

I don't agree. I think I've actually seen you in a quite favorable light for most of the game, and given you the benefit of the doubt many times, even when I found your reasoning lacking.

That being said, I never give anyone a free pass, and when I started looking wholesale at what you've done this game, I did not see a lot of positives. I also think you've responded very poorly to what I initiated as a genuinely open minded questioning of your reasons for outting Blair.

If I'm off base, then make the case of how you've benefited town and had town goals in mind. Painting any questioning of your motives as inherently scummy is something I don't find persuasive.

Mostly though, I would like to hear from others (especially those on the Mavs wagon).

I didn't say that. I said you don't have a nuanced view on my slot. That's a different thing than Town/Scum or even like/dislike.

But do what you got to do. I already think you am mav are the Scum team. That should be pretty obvious at this point. Still, you misrep me rather than actually addressing my points. That just gives me more reason to SR you, honest. And no, that has nothing to do with you not having a nuanced read on my slot. You've mostly been quiet on how Towny/Scummy I am. Probably because you knew you would have to push me at some point.

Given I haven't given up the ghost yet, what are you going to do if you can't get my lynched?

[Quick]

[Quick]

You have not countered anything I've said, so how am I misrepping you? What is the specific nuance I'm missing in what I've said?

These are very vague defenses to pretty specific points. Even now, I'm open to hearing what you have to say. I don't claim to be perfect. But you need to actually offer something more than "poor me, I'm being maligned" if you want to convince me.

Given I haven't given up the ghost yet, what are you going to do if you can't get my lynched?

Considering no one but us has talked about this, I think this is a premature hypothetical.

This is the equivalent of me saying, what are you going to do if you lynch Mavs and he flips town?

Your read on me is simple and my play is not. Hence, I sense shenanigans.

You're basically forced to make a case against me here because I've already picked you and mav as the remaining Scum. Instead of showing how that isn't viable (because you can't) you say I haven't defeated your case. That's fine but I believe I had you as a possible Scum long before your case on me that is honestly very weak for this stage of the game. D1, sure, I think people could buy that. But D3? I don't think it's a good case because you haven't actually shown you are Town this game. Your play seems to be skirting around making reads and only really making reads when you have to. Am I wrong?

Also, it does seem like if I were you and I was Town I would be trying to lynch votato and not me because honestly, what is votato hanging on to that makes them Town in your eyes? That ofc gets upset when I say things like, "There is one Scum in votato/VP." So you are really painting yourself in a corner either way. If I were you and I was Scum, I would really, honestly, be trying to lynch mav at this point given he is Town. But you are barely looking at mav. What gives? Is mav Town? Based on what? Will you even answer these questions? Time will tell.

[Quick]

I have very clearly explained why I think the mav case is bad. His claim is far too specific and breadcrumbed to be coming from a scum on the fly pushed to L-1. Now, is it possible he planned all this? Sure. But I find that is way more complicated than scum usually are.

To quote you: Time will tell.

In terms of why I wouldn't push votato, I said earlier that I was finding him more town...and the simulpost doesn't mean a lot to me. I know I'm town and what my intentions were there. It was a freak thing he posted at the same time. Doesn't mean he is clear of anything, but it also doesn't guarantee there is a scum there. That's just faulty logic.

And saying my case against you is D1 level is BS. I'm looking at the totality of your actions from day 1 to now. That is exactly the type of case that should be made if you want to holistically catch scum.

Your case on Mavs amounts to "I don't believe his claim" and "his voting record isn't great". Well the first part of that is subjective and the second part...well you are one to talk. So if you think that case is a better quality than what I've made against you, that's cool. Eager to see where the rest of the people come down on that comparison.

Nope. All wrong. Want me to point out why?

[Quick]

But I find that is way more complicated than scum usually are.

Would you mind offering your comment on this:

This progression from mav is wacky - especially if mav is SvS with Gamma... Not seeing that clear analytical process from mav here... looks more like panic.

It was a freak thing he posted at the same time. Doesn't mean he is clear of anything, but it also doesn't guarantee there is a scum there. That's just faulty logic.

Good thing my case on there being Scum in Vp/votato has zero to do with that then... You are assuming at best and manipulating at worst.

And saying my case against you is D1 level is BS. I'm looking at the totality of your actions from day 1 to now. That is exactly the type of case that should be made if you want to holistically catch scum.

I'll watch while you make your case on me. I will go toe to toe with you if you want to 1v1.

Your case on Mavs amounts to "I don't believe his claim" and "his voting record isn't great". Well the first part of that is subjective and the second part...well you are one to talk. So if you think that case is a better quality than what I've made against you, that's cool. Eager to see where the rest of the people come down on that comparison.

There's more to it than that, surely!

[Quick]

Okay, Effort for donkey just means he is Town. That is all I am saying.

I'll bite. Give me the case on Blair.

So at the time of this question, Blair’s VC was 2, NPOM and Quick. NPOM voted Blair way back in 189. Quick voted Blair closer to this post in 270 while baiting “feel free to ask me for my reasoning” which makes me believe that VP Baltar is directing the above at Quick.

In 376, VP Baltar says he’s pretty sure Quick and Blair are town. I don’t think town!VP Baltar asks his TR Quick about their case on TR Blair. Town!VP Baltar would only asks this if he’s scum reading at least one of Quick/Blair.

His town read post came after a Blair vs Quick so it’s possible he read that as TvT since, but that means he was scum reading Blair since he was town reading Quick in 317.

He never makes a push on Blair prior to this or expresses any sort of scum read on Blair. I think the above is disingenuous and he looking for town to eat itself here.

Vote: VP Baltar

@Quick: so this was an early game distancing ploy? This is your VP Baltar/R2R thingy all over again. Where does this above fit into Quick’s formula of Non-Alignment scum solving strategy? VP was also one of the people I surmised could potentially be scum and had votato as town (when I had him as town thinking he was the complimentary role to mine) and you had a mavs/votato scum pairing then.

Why did you quote VP there?

[Quick]

Let's give it a shot...

VOTE: VP

I would normally have to make a GOOD case for a player like this, but we will see how this fairs us...

[Quick]

i could compromise on a quick or puppy wagon.

You know, Puppy has magically disappeared from the thread for the longest time...

[Quick]

Am I wrong in assuming there should be some sort of protective role with a Strongman? Not sure why Blair wasn't protected unless all we have is a JK.

This is actually a good point. Did not think of that.

[/quote]

Here is the other soft you made.

[Quick]

This is actually a good point. Did not think of that.

Here is the other soft you made.

EBWOP

[Quick]

how is that a soft?!

It doesn't need a comment at all. What else was the purpose of doing that? Willing to hear you out here...

[Quick]

Big surprise. Thought you were certain on Mavs and flipping him would be indicative of my alignment?

No, where did I say that because I don't remember saying that. I don't need to associate you two together to SR both of you. I have mav as Scum for their flip flopping (which normally comes from Town, but in this case I think mav just got nervous when Blair came out with a strong read on Gamma and mav went back and forth on votato [which actually pretty much clears votato on a Scum!mav, but I digress]) and I've said IDK how many times that I have one of you/votato as SvS.

[Quick]

Thoughts on Quick?

Glossing over him was a mistake. but I don't think he's unjustified in pressuring you, because I think both of you are in similar places in the POE process for me. I agree with you that quick has been tremendously anti town. I can totally see your case being in good faith. I dont think it makes him scum

I don't see my play as Anti-Town as much as it is that I grate on people and they don't like me or my playstyle. I'll try and cool my jets, but I actually play this game to win.

[Quick]

1) fit

2) best interests

Could you unpack what you mean by this and how I am doing/not doing that?

[Quick]

1) fit

2) best interests

Could you unpack what you mean by this and how I am doing/not doing that?

Sure, fit is about who most logically fit as scum with gamma. I can't really eliminate you from that pool given the outing of Blair and the weird agreement with Puppy when they said maybe we shouldn't even lynch Blair or Gamma yesterday. If you had come out hard at gamma immediately because you believed Blair copped him, I'd be like "quick seems very townie for that"

Best interests of the town is about pushing the town toward making the right lynches. Ive outlined already why I don't think you've done that. Do you feel like your play this game has been highly beneficial to town in that sense?

Additionally the role fishing stuff is just bad. Like, you said everyone should mass claim, and even if that were true (it's not), you didn't offer any ideas about how that should play out or the order it should be done to best benefit town. Instead, you just claimed and encouraged others to follow. You don't honestly see that as beneficial to town do you?

Why do I claim VT there as Scum?

[Quick]

why do you claim VT at all?

Because I don't want to wait until LoLo to mass claim because then it just becomes a game of who's claim do you believe more and has nothing to do with Scum hunting at all.

[Quick]

why mass claim in the first place?

So we can Scum hunt.

In all seriousness.. I am not really sure how many more claims are even out there. We could hold off another day, but waiting until LyLo for mass claim is dangerous af.

Plus, it's pretty much essential that mav claims there as Scum and expecting anything other than something that can't be confirmed is suicide for Scum. Honestly, I would probably have claimed Doc there and seen where that would take me. Doc is almost always a good claim as Scum. But like I have said, I leave the fancy claims to my betters. I just as soon Scum hunt as Scum then try and pull something out of my ass.

It is weird because in retrospect, mav would be way better off claiming VT there as Scum I think. But then that eliminates a ton of WIFOM surrounding their claim and what to make of it and waste literally 2 weeks of your life trying to decide if it's actually viable or not. Fuck that. Ignore claims entirely and just get reads based on play. Anyone who knows the roles well enough and has a bit of time can fabricate a claim that is believable. That said, it takes all the finesse out of the game. You're lying to save your ass. All you have to do is be consistent. Pretty easy actually. That said, I have never been one who has been good at making up claims. I think I claimed Doc once when I replaced into a huge game late in it. Super easy! Just claim Doc! And if Doc doesn't work, you have a really good chance at outing another PR that would contradict the Doc claim. So it's really win/win.

In any case, IDK why votato and hellbooks are so sold on mav's claim being legit. I don't really buy it, but maybe I suck with all this claiming stuff. If it was just me making the decision, mav got put to L-1 with intent for a reason. let's read them based on their play and not based on the WIFOM of whether their claim is legit or not.

BTW, I can buy that the newbies would totally think, "No way they ever claim that as Scum here" but I think, as a general rule, the wackier the claim, the more likely it is to come from Scum.

And I'm still podering that R2R case VP made. Something doesn't feel quite right about it but I would probably have to go back and look. I think I made the comment at one point (possibly D1, not sure) that maybed R2R just has a Scummy meta. Still, their content hasn't been bad and they are still offering new thoughts so my TR on them just gets more solidified.

I will have to ISO hellbooks given I make it past this phase and we are both still alive next Day Phase. I have liked their content, but honestly, them TRing me based on me talking about how I know I grate on people doesn't seem like a LEGITIMATE reason to TR me. I can get it if there is like... politics involved and they just want to manipulate me to be nicer to people and not be a prick, but that's honestly a garbage reason to legit TR someone unless it's based on tone or something like that. Nothing about what I said should really turn heads in their read on me.

Puppy is no where so that slot probably needs pressure next Day Phase. I don't want to see Scum coast to victory. That's why if VP is Scum here, I actually respect his play quite a bit. mav to to some extent because that may not be the easiest fake claim to make. Maybe Puppy is bored with this game? I would like their thoughts sometime soonish. We still have plenty of time to decide who we want to lynch.

My top choice for lynch is mav, followed by VP, followed by a tie between hellbooks and Puppy. That is where I think the last two Scum are. I am not seeing votato!Scum or midway!Scum much at all, but if they fool me here congrats to them.

[Quick]

@Blair: why did you pick Gammagooey to target with your night action? Looking through your ISO day 1, you really only mention not having a read on him late in the day and that’s basically it. This is repeated a couple times but reads to me like an afterthought. Seems like someone you didn’t have near the top of people you would target with a night action.

@Blair: never mind. Thanks

@mav, why did you just nope out of the thread after Blair claimed? Pretty much everyone else made a stance on it one way or another (except maybe Puppy, which is looking rather... ripe about now). Why didn't you use your voice or your vote? What was your plan going into N2?

If anyone doesn't know what I'm talking about there:

Quick says Blair Tunnel with the words being capitalized in post 191, and then the two start going at each other, and quick says the post has a double meaning, and then later he points it out again

Blair v. Quick would be an interesting theory you could put more time into that might be more compelling

...

except that you bring this up after justifying your hammer by appealing to quick and

immediately after

you sheep blair on gamagooey

Something about puppy's catchup is off to me. Like they're pretending not to know about the most recent of events on purpose

ok, i'm all caught up, i didn't see the stuff about roles and claims until the end

not sure there's much i can add, one of blair/gamma is scum, i've been townreading blair most of the game and will probably side that way

@Puppy, Why are you so utterly apathetic here when we caught Scum?

a very small part of me is tempted to say that we should not lynch blair or gammagooey and just let gamma live until n3 so he can shoot blair if he can

but, meh, can't outsmart the counter claims i think

What in the world?

Maybe VP is Town here and was picking up on something... Hmm..

Also you didn't comment on anything I said at all which gives me bad feelings

anything specific you want, let me know

otherwise, there wasn't much in the last page or so that looks answerable. "puppy pretending that he hasn't read the latest stuff" -- yeah, I got killed in another game and had time for this one and started where i left off. it's an understandable reason to sketch me, but it's not really something i can answer, either you believe me or don't /shrug

I was under the impression that you at least slightly scumread me. The way you talk to me feels off, like you're assuming I'm town here. Is anybody else seeing this weirdness?

i have u as null

to my mind all you did was post a couple catch-up posts and then hammer. since the hammer happened while i was offline and was a bad hammer that gives me mixed feelings about trying to read your slot (this is one of the reasons why it was a bad hammer, it could only have introduced this complexity on reading ur slot)

No follow up from Puppy on that. Very bizarre. Why prioritize answering Dunn over VP here?

And VP did this just after:

Someone tell me if traffic analyst is a standard kind of role? I have not played in years and do not know what is considered a "normal" role.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Normal_Game

So basically anything just not roles that involve elements of chance.

Blair is more believable here and one of them has to go.

VOTE: gamma L-1 I believe

Which is another huge WTF moment. Why put Gamma at L-1 to self hammer when they were RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of taking looks at Puppy. I do NOT understand dropping that like a hot potato (no pun intended @votato). It makes all three of mav/puppy/VP look SUPER suspect at how this all went down.

I sorta kinda feel like VP is traitor in this game. I had 3p feels early with the softening and all, but it could actually be traitor here. Didn't mention it because it was just gut, but the thought kept recurring so I am bringing it up now to say it's possible VP is traitor here.

Okay, so I think I'm fine with putting mav/Puppy/VP in my Scum pool for the remaining Scum. Read pending on hellbooks, but they honestly seem like they are NOT just skating by.

[Quick]

You can’t POSSIBLY be this anti-town.

VOTE: Quick

I'm sorry, I have not a clue what you are talking about.

[Quick]

Oh, it just dawns on me that mav's role only makes sense as a Town role. Like, it's not even neutral.

[Quick]

apologies for lurking

Okay???