Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[lilith2013]

also pretty sure gobbles was TRing me at the end of yesterday. mena it kinda seems like you’re trying to force the facts to fit a lynch on me here

[lilith2013]

pretty likely, but i'm not at all convinced that the inverse is true

I am townreading Lilith for her reaction to my suspicion, for the most part. Her melodramatic and petulant “I guess I’ll never be honest again!” made me roll my eyes, but I townread it.

I think I have my scumreads. I’ll be posting a list later today

[lilith2013]

SS/FB my top picks for scum

Sheep this and you might have a chance

If you really trust gobble’s reads due to him being conftown then maybe this is a better place to start...

[lilith2013]

ok

[lilith2013]

no, i’m not the SK.

[lilith2013]

doctor/jk/hider/commuter.......

[lilith2013]

i mean i’m just agreeing with a50’s thoughts, pb didn’t really make sense as a scumkill unless they were trying to guarantee a kill? and he said SK so i automatically thought of SK first but my logic could have been applied to a vig as well

[lilith2013]

there’s a 50% chance of there being an SK.... vs like a 5% chance of a vig. like in most universes we do have an SK?

[lilith2013]

oh my vig math is wrong. i didn’t actually do the combinatorics but chances of having at least one K should be 10% and if it’s exactly one K then it’s less than that so somewhere between 5-10%. i think sk probability is still 50% though?

[lilith2013]

okay i’m just gonna do the math

[lilith2013]

okay according to my math there’s approximately a 3.3% chance of there being a vig in this setup so clearly i went wrong somewhere

[lilith2013]

welp clearly i’ve been thinking about this setup completely wrong

[lilith2013]

he was basically at L-1? (votes were at L-2 but a50 said he was on the wagon in spirit)

[lilith2013]

i think it’s pretty bad.

mena -> seems pretty hungry to lynch me and SS in succession regardless of what we flip. i don’t think that’s a town thought process. surely if he sees me flip town that would make him reconsider SS?
pp -> no explanation on the vote, i guess i’m in his poe and he’s just voting whoever out of those is wagoned
blake -> has been super passive on her scumreads. she’s been calling me scum since D1 but hasn’t tried to garner any votes on me? and also called penguin scum today but dropped that completely when there was no traction.

the only person i’m townreading on my wagon is a50.

[lilith2013]

idk if it makes sense for mena/blake to be partners though, i think my top picks for scum are blake + firebringer atm

[lilith2013]

penguin is kinda null i guess, i can’t tell if he’s scummy or i just really don’t vibe well with his playstyle

[lilith2013]

also blake was saying that the stagnation D1 indicated that there were scum in the influential players and then proceeded to post a readslist where all her nullreads and below were low influence players

[lilith2013]

ouch

[lilith2013]

i was on your wagon at the start of day 2, thoughts about that?

didn’t you vote me because mena asked you to? and then unvoted because you became unsure of mena?

idk i still think you’re town, that feels like a natural progression?

[lilith2013]

lilith can you provide an updated readslist?
and maybe you should be pushing blake and/or mena?

no time atm, will do this later

[lilith2013]

sorry, i've been working until 4am this week and this game isn't really a huge priority for me atm. in hindsight i probably shouldn't have joined this game knowing i'd be busy, but i thought it'd be more manageable than this :/

[lilith2013]

i'm a bit shocked that i wasn't immediately run up after SS's wagon died and i think that means mena is probably town. i think i'm still here:

VOTE: blake

[lilith2013]

i guess i would also be okay voting maria but nothing she's said has particularly pinged me? whereas blake has felt very distant from my wagon all game

[lilith2013]

i'm a bit shocked that i wasn't immediately run up after SS's wagon died and i think that means mena is probably town

Extrapolate?

You were pretty vocal about wanting me lynched and I think you would have had plenty of momentum off the backend of SS’ wagon to immediately push a successful wagon on me without a ton of suspicion. That didn’t happen, so i feel like you’re probably town.

[lilith2013]

i don’t think my reads have changed much recently - current lynchpool is probably like {blake, pp, firebringer, bingle, maria} in roughly order of preference.

in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun

[lilith2013]

if you have specific questions i can answer stuff but i can’t really do a reread atm

[lilith2013]

hmm i think pp should be more to the right in that list, maybe below fb in the order

[lilith2013]

@skitter/mena: blake’s been calling me scum since D1 and says i’m the scumread she’s most confident on, but hasn’t directly engaged with me at all, so i feel like there’s a bit of a disconnect there; also as i’ve said, she’s been very distant from my wagon - basically voteparking me without trying to get more votes or push my lynch through, for like half of D1 and most of D2. she feels very passive (both re: her scumread on me and in general), which feels pretty similar to a game that i spectated where she was scum (jigsaw), like kind of an avoidance of direct interactions with players, if that makes sense. in terms of her actual play today - if she were still scumreading me after SS’s wagon fell apart, then why not try to redirect the wagon back to me? instead she acted like my wagon was a lost cause, when there were still 3 votes on me at the time? and she voted firebringer and then bingle immediately after skitter voted bingle. so now that bingle is getting heat, she suddenly no longer townreads bingle..?

[lilith2013]

I mentioned before that PenguinPower's push on me makes more sense from a town perspective than a scum perspective. This is still the case mainly because I don't suspect he is the type of player that would show teeth like that as scum and have ultimately nothing come of it.

also - penguin never pushed blake, so i don’t understand why blake is townreading him

[lilith2013]

What lilith thing? The 2 vote wagon that was just Blake + Mena?

Strong push on her strongest scum read that led her to vote me right before eod.

ok fair. i took another look when they both started pushing her and i had thought that blake's push starting significantly earlier than it actually did.
i don't know what you're saying with your last bit tho

I'm saying if she was really pushing lilith her last min swap to me doesn't really make sense given what she said.

ergo I don't believe she was really pushing lilith genuinely.

okay i think this is the exchange referenced, but i’m not really seeing what about this makes penguin town

[lilith2013]

anyway - i think this read also lines up with my observation of how distant blake feels from the game, i don’t think she and penguin have directly interacted other than this

[lilith2013]

anyway - i think this read also lines up with my observation of how distant blake feels from the game, i don’t think she and penguin have directly interacted

ebwop, i don’t think this counts as a direct interaction either

[lilith2013]

(oog: i appreciate everyone’s concern! i made it home in one piece, although after i got home my muscles started doing that thing where they feel like they’re burning. and my entire body is screaming today! 0/10 would not recommend)

[lilith2013]

also skitter, hope you feel better!

[lilith2013]

i’m not sure i can articulate this well, but the way you said stuff was indirect imo

[lilith2013]

well i’ve never read any of your other games so i wouldn’t know?

[lilith2013]

are you saying that you’re always passive and don’t try to hardpush wagons on your scumreads?

[lilith2013]

i mean i said a bunch of things that don’t have to do with jigsaw that i’m scumreading you for and in addition to that, your posts feel similar to your posts in jigsaw?

[lilith2013]

it’s by no means the crux of my argument

[lilith2013]

i think i have more of an issue on how you approach things? like if you’re scumreading me the most, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for you to not be trying to get me lynched? and again, after SS’s wagon disintegrated if you’re still scumreading me (which i think you are), why wouldn’t you try to direct the wagon back to me if you still scumread me the most?

[lilith2013]

is your sole reason for scumreading me still that my posts are fluffy?

[lilith2013]

and yes i do think it’s suspicious to form reads on people without ever directly interacting with them

pedit: @skitter what makes you say that?

[lilith2013]

is your sole reason for scumreading me still that my posts are fluffy?

No.

I'm scumreading you because the way your posts are fluffy do not indicate a town mindset.

can you explain what that means?

[lilith2013]

if it means what i think it means, then it’s eerily similar to the most common reason that scum have said they’re scumreading me, from back when i was first on this site (before my hiatus)

[lilith2013]

i'm kinda maybe thinking about voting lilith

?

[lilith2013]

i forgot how to math, i was calculating it as like a permutation (whichever one is order-specific) instead of a combination

[lilith2013]

okay according to my math there’s approximately a 3.3% chance of there being a vig in this setup so clearly i went wrong somewhere

[lilith2013]

.... so you’re voting me because my math is bad and you think it’s me intentionally miscalculating rather than me just being bad at math?

[lilith2013]

wait what

[lilith2013]

oh i see because you said 6T

[lilith2013]

i don’t really understand why you think scum would want there to be only one kill?

[lilith2013]

isn’t more town deaths better from their pov?

[lilith2013]

i’m vengeful.

[lilith2013]

i much prefer blake especially given that she unvoted me when i think it’s pretty clear i would vengekill her

[lilith2013]

Let skitter30 vig her.

Eh? If she's vengeful it's better for her to be lynched than vigged.

also this

[lilith2013]

UNVOTE: for a minute
ngl i think that vengeful is a bit suspect? odds of there being 2 K prs aren't super high, right?

the probability of a K given another K is the same as the probability of a K given any other role rolled?

[lilith2013]

i don’t think my reads have changed much recently - current lynchpool is probably like {blake, pp, firebringer, bingle, maria} in roughly order of preference.

in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun

hmm i think pp should be more to the right in that list, maybe below fb in the order

this is still my poe

[lilith2013]

No it is not.

uhh...... yes it is?

[lilith2013]

no i mean the probability of a second K given that there’s already a K is equal to the probability that there’s at least one K if we had a game with only 6 rolls

[lilith2013]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

[lilith2013]

the probability of getting two heads if we already have one head is p(2h)/p(h) by bayes theorem, so 1/4 divided by 1/2 = 1/2 which = p(h) for the second flip

[lilith2013]

the probability of 'getting two heads' is different than the probability of 'getting two heads knowing that you have at least one'

lilith you're saying you'd venge blake?

yes, unless there’s like overwhelming consensus i should venge maria instead

[lilith2013]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

it doesn’t really work the same because there’s only two coin flips. let’s say there are 3 coin flips.

the probability of having 2 or more coins flip heads, given that one has already flipped heads, is basically equivalent to ignoring the first coin flip and calculating the probability of one or more heads given that we are now flipping the coin twice. the previous flip has no bearing on the probability of the two other flips. the probability that i am a K, given that skitter is also a K, is equivalent to the probability that i am a K given that skitter is literally any role - the probabilities are independent

[lilith2013]

do you have anything in your iso that would point to you playing as a venge
like is there anything you can point to that would make this more likely to be true, if that makes sense?

i thought an SK was more likely than a vig, i really fucked up the vig probability calc, and have put up very little resistance to being lynched today? tbh i’ve never played vengeful before so i don’t really know how i’m supposed to be playing

[lilith2013]

i don’t really mind being the lynch for today since it means i get to venge blake, and it also gets me out of the way as a distraction. i know i’ve played pretty horribly so far.

[lilith2013]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

pedit i mean i would have been p amneable to venging mariar ... i didn't say at any point i thought you were ncessarily the best venge

i think it's 1 - .9^7

[lilith2013]

meh. skitter who are you SRing the most out of those 3?

[lilith2013]

i don’t think i really understood the reasons you were scumreading her for?

[lilith2013]

they're pretty much the same tier to me

[lilith2013]

is the probability of at least one K

1 - (5/6)^7 ?

oh wait this is wrong since we're not literally rolling letters

1 - (9/10) ^ 7

i think ?

yeah that's what i said

[lilith2013]

blake claimed pr so i don't really want to venge there, i think that can be sorted out tomorrow

[lilith2013]

okay i attempted this again - i think the probability of exactly 2K's is .1^2 * .9^5 * (the number of combinations of arrangements for 2 K's in a 7 letter setup which is 27 = 6 + 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1), which is 12.4%

[lilith2013]

oops sorry it's 21, not 27, but the 12.4% is the result using 21

[lilith2013]

i kinda suck at probability

[lilith2013]

it's pretty shameful since i'm an actuary :/

[lilith2013]

it's been like years since i took P!

[lilith2013]

I'm going to skip all the math talk since it is A) 100% useless and B) Not helpful. We lynch the vengeful claim. There's no world where that is bad for us since Lilith is a strong scumread and you can take out someone in the 'poe' without the bus driver being a threat. Like me and Bingle

Well said.

you know literally no one is arguing against my lynch, right? not even me

[lilith2013]

sorry for fucking up so much, team

[lilith2013]

gg town, yall did great