Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!
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In part because what I think I said was accurate, but also because I struggle to see town!penguin choosing to just go “NOPE, big fuck mena, he’s scum and I’m not dealing with him”
Whereas I totally think that’s something scum penguin would do to avoid having to engage further"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Err it just feels like town you the last couple of times we’ve fought in games? And like idk if there’s that much more to it than that? I feel like your emotional responses are basically honest. Maybe I’m just a sucker if you are scum but rn I don’t see the reason to doubt whether you’re manipulating me like that because there are much better candidates for scum so I’m just not going to interrogate whether you’d intentionally make me feel bad to win as scum and I don’t really wanna go there soIn post 1272, Datisi wrote::thonk:
can you elaborate on this a lil bit
also was there a point in being very secretive about reads before your Readslist
there probably was but i haven't had my coffee yet so
Yes — I didn’t want scum to be able to play around me before they knew what I thought because I wanted them as natural/relaxed as possible"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Could you ctrl+f your name in my ISO because I think there were at least 2 questions for you?In post 1250, Blake Belladonna wrote:Page top."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I’m trying? It’s why I’ve taken a punt on backing my townread if you and actually saying “yes, datisi is in my top townreads” instead of equivocating over it a million times
What did you think of my readslist more generally? I wanna know what you thought about PP’s reaction after people answer you on why they thought it was town indicative"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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You think it could be (Lilith, PP, chem)?In post 1282, skitter30 wrote:No"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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So, assuming that gobbles is telling the truth and isn’t gsmbiting as scum to try and buy extra time by promising to be a pro-town SK:
The following setups are the SK ones:
TTTTTTT
TTTTT
TTT
T
I think it’s reasonable to dismiss the top outcome and the bottom as highly unlikely for now (can be reconsidered in the case of a large number of PR/VT flips later on) which gives us 2 setups, one with a two man scumteam, one with a threeman.
If it is one of those scum have either a 1s bus drive, or they have a JOAT(rb, ninja, strongman)"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Okay, then where am I going wrong?In post 1285, skitter30 wrote:I misread implausible as plausible, sorry
I think it's unlikely the entire team is in that group.
If its a 2man scumteam maaaaaaaybe but if its a 3man i would be quite shocked
What if I expand that to include S_S?
The whole scumteam in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt, S_S)?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I’d kinda like you to help explain to me your reads on everyone so I can check my thought process against yours, but like that seems positive to me? Yeah there’s a little bit of fear, same as I have with Maria saying her list is basically mine (ooi, who’s the one person you’d swap, @maria?) especially because I put my list out first which makes is easier for people to just say “yeah I agree”, but fundamentally I’m treating my townreads seeing the game similarly as a good thingIn post 1283, Datisi wrote:
i actually agree with a lot of it?In post 1279, Menalque wrote:What did you think of my readslist more generally?
which kinda makes me think back to when scum!you said something like "Datisi's and my reads are matching and that could be me getting pocketed" or some bullshit
what's your thought on our reads Mostly Matching here
i don't necessarily see anything that's strongly poitning to "not partners"In post 1281, Menalque wrote:@dats regarding 1278, do you think it’s implausible that the entire scumteam could be in (PP, Lilith, chem, skitt)?
but also nothing that's pointing to "partners"
so uhh
no?
I’d quite like bingle to talk about his firebringer read, actually, as that seems like a bit of a point of disagreement with the general consensus
I didn’t necessarily mean partner/non-partner tells, but like does the gamestate make sense to you if the scumteam is contained in those names/does each scumread make sense on an individual level?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Based on past experience or just how he is generally?In post 1280, skitter30 wrote:
I dont think he reacts to scumreads opinionatedly and aggressively like thisIn post 1271, Menalque wrote:Okay why, because pure boi and Maria said the same thing but I thought it was a really +scum reaction to have"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I think you’ve actually not explained that many
Like: pb/Lilith/Blake/bingle and even there I don’t think you’ve explained that much, plus not having much on S_S/chem/fb
But there’s still like skitt/PP/maria who I don’t think you’ve given a read on. Could you do me a readslist for ease of reference?
I think gamestate refers to what you feel is happening in the game, yeah. So like, a gamestate feels resisty so scum are either defending their partner or they’re trying to be in the right side of a townflip for example"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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This is... quite literally the opposite of c9++ where I argued that we were in a 0T setup to fit the fakeclaim I was going with, in the face of math that someone(ddl?) had done that quite clearly showed that was the least possible outcome of all of themIn post 1293, skitter30 wrote:
i'm not super comfortable removing those setups until/unless we have further information that shows why this would be highly unlikelyIn post 1286, Menalque wrote:I think it’s reasonable to dismiss the top outcome and the bottom as highly unlikely for now (can be reconsidered in the case of a large number of PR/VT flips later on) which gives us 2 setups, one with a two man scumteam, one with a threeman.
(and you saying this reminds me of nom's c++) ..."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Okay, this is fairIn post 1298, skitter30 wrote:i'm saying that i'm wary listening to you handwaving away two of the setups out of consideration just yet
But, they couldn’t though? Look at the setups, each sk setup has an equivalent non-SK setup so they’d have no way of knowing yet (without flips) which one they’re in. I remember the struggle of trying to guess if we had an SK or not in c9++In post 1299, Pink Ball wrote:@mena about the setup, we first flip gobble, then we discuss it. Scum has more info about the setup so they could know that SK is a safe claim. I mean no one's going to counter, but they could be caught in the future if the allegedly real SK flips"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads. The safest long term play is to get rid of him today, especially considering that a bus driver may be out there.In post 1314, Something_Smart wrote:
He's in the weakest negotiating position... which means he's not a threat, right?In post 1266, Menalque wrote:+1, we still lynch gobbles today
I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position.
Since we can unilaterally make him lose, he has to do what we say; even though he says he won't be leashed, if a majority agrees to leash him, he'll have to follow or be lynched. That said, straight-up leashing is a bad idea because bus driver, but it seems perfectly fine to tell him to kill someone scummy and if he doesn't (or if you want to be harsh, if he doesn't hit scum) then we lynch him.
“Weakest” was the wrong phrase. “Weak” should be right. He’d be “weakest” if we had 2 scum flips and no townies had died due to docs or jks, but that’s unlikely to happen."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I mean what people do is different to what people should do and I see no problem making it easier to see who people were ostensibly scumreading?In post 1320, Something_Smart wrote:
Or people could just read the game instead of using VC's as a crutch?In post 1275, Menalque wrote:Also — yes, we should still lynch gobbles, but you should change your vote temporarily to where you think groupscum is to make it easier to track where people thought scum was on D1 in retrospect when people look back at ofhrz’s ISO and the VCs"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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But you’re... the SK? You literally have the wincon of killing every single town player in the game and given that you’re outed helping scum is not the way to do that because it just means we get to killing you fasterIn post 1335, gobbledygook wrote:I townside whenever I am not scum but not town, for the record. I have two games to prove that.
Like let’s say we lynch scum today, vig one tonight and you kill the other one
What do you think happens tomorrow?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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There is NO INCENTIVE for the turkey to kill scum because that LITERALLY is playing against his winconIn post 1333, Something_Smart wrote:
This sounds like empty rhetoric to me.In post 1322, Menalque wrote:No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads.
You're talking about him surviving another day as if it's automatically a bad thing. Is it? If we compare lynching him tomorrow to lynching him today, the only difference is that an extra player dies overnight. If that player is > rand scum, then it's good; otherwise, it's bad.
Then, if he killed scum, we can leave him alive one more day to put us back on odds without worrying about losing majority. If he killed town, we might have to lynch him-- and this gives him a powerful incentive to play along and try to hit his strongest scumread.
If you assume that his reads are better than random, there is at the very least a reasonable argument for leaving him alive.
Like in the world where we mislynch every day and the turkey saves us by shooting 3 scum in a row — what does he think happens, we go “yeah, thanks turkey, we just won’t lynch you so that you can win bc you were so helpful to town” lmao"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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You should add yours!In post 1353, Pink Ball wrote:That's a good vote actually"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Right, but my point is that you claiming SK can be within wincon, but actually hard townsiding CANNOT be. That very, very literally conflicts with your wincon or “be the last bird standing”. So I have no reason to trust that you’re actually going to townside because all that would do is hasten your demise. I think you would shoot a slot you believe to be town but you think you could justify as having been within the PoE of slots it’s useful to eliminate, and that you would then try to barter having made a “pro town kill” into another night of life, by which point if we do mislynch twice we’d be getting close to lylo and you’d be able to start sounding quite convincing when you say the scum are the real threat and we need your help"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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If he dodges again then I’ll stop defending himIn post 1410, skitter30 wrote:i think lilith being prickly about her activity is town indicative
mena when do we get to push chemist for not doing anything
Honestly, if he hasn’t done anything by end of day I wouldn’t be opposed to lynching him if it weren’t for the fact that there is open scum in the game"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I think I still *want* to lynch Lilith the most because if I’m wrong there I think I have an idea of where I should be looking but ehhhhIn post 1409, skitter30 wrote:
he feels like how he interacted in city + i don't like his mechanics talkIn post 1381, lilith2013 wrote:
because of the mechanics talk or for some other reason?In post 1336, skitter30 wrote:man i really think ss is scum here"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Err, I’m not sure you fully understand how the bus driver mechanic works pure boiIn post 1431, Pink Ball wrote:Omg I actually think that trying to leash gobble is scummy because of the possible existence of a bus driver. If scum knows gobble's pool, they can decide if they target him or not!! :O surprised emoji indeed"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Sort of, but I’ll get to it once I’m at a computerIn post 1420, lilith2013 wrote:mena, i didn’t actually think you were ignoring me before but now it seems like you are in fact blatantly ignoring me
You post a lot of stuff"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I went through a bunch of your games looking for situations where you’d been pushed as town and agree that you flipping out on me is more likely to come from town you. Specifically the games were (I think) black and white and another one shortly before that chronologically in your “topics” list from your profile
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Subject: Mini Normal 2085: Colors (Game Over)
No wait it wasn’t black n white it was this plus another game where he tells someone to fuck off as soon as they say they’re scumreading himPenguinPower wrote:flipping vt you fucking derp town.
I don't see how anyone can believe FL's drivel."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Acceptable compromiseIn post 1454, PenguinPower wrote:I mean - you can. I won't participate.
Who do you think is scum, pingüino?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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You realise that this is basically my lynch list (minus myself) right? Why would you lynch me?In post 1458, PenguinPower wrote:Dunno. I have people I would lynch though - you, Lilith, S_S, Chemist
And why would you lynch those people?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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It is odd that he would lynch me when all the other people I want to lynch are the same people he wants to lynchIn post 1461, gobbledygook wrote:
Why does that matter?In post 1459, Menalque wrote:You realise that this is basically my lynch list (minus myself) right?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I mean I would if we weren’t lynching the SK todayIn post 1463, PenguinPower wrote:You act like I believe that you would actually lynch them..."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I kinda think he would I just don’t know if he has. He’s done it twice which has given me some doubtsIn post 1482, Bingle wrote:Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?
I think the answer is no, but I've spent the last like 4 games we play together mislynching him so I don't really trust myself on that judgment call."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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If this isn’t just riffing why do you think dats is scum anyway?In post 1481, gobbledygook wrote:
Don’t be scum next timeIn post 1479, Datisi wrote:i just don't wanna die lmao"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Why’s that?In post 1502, skitter30 wrote:actually i retract my maybe mena townread"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Prefer Lilith + gobbles is outed scum and I think that might be slowing the game downIn post 1503, Firebringer wrote:Can someone convince SS is town to me right now because I don't see anyone townread him and I don't get why this wagon only has me and skitter on it. Its like this wagon can gain no traction while gobbles can get L-1 even tho clearly no one is really townreading SS."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Do I?In post 1496, gobbledygook wrote:
But you try harder as scum...In post 1495, Menalque wrote:If I’d rolled scum in my first game back I wouldn’t be trying this hard"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I kinda think he would fake a townslip, I just don’t know if he did fake one. He’s made two things that could be seen as townslips this game and I don’t know if he would do that twice by sheer accident/coincidenceIn post 1485, gobbledygook wrote:
Is this EnglishIn post 1484, Menalque wrote:
I kinda think he would I just don’t know if he has. He’s done it twice which has given me some doubtsIn post 1482, Bingle wrote:Does anyone know if PB would be likely to fake a townslip as scum?
I think the answer is no, but I've spent the last like 4 games we play together mislynching him so I don't really trust myself on that judgment call."we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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I really don’t know what you mean by the first bitIn post 1509, skitter30 wrote:
you feel too self-aware of what scum!you would be doing in this situation and how you'd be playing differently than thatIn post 1504, Menalque wrote:
Why’s that?In post 1502, skitter30 wrote:actually i retract my maybe mena townread
i'm confused how ss entered your lynch pool
So my lynch pool goes like:
S_S
Skitt
Chem
Lil
PP
Gobbles
If we deduct a turkey (because he’s a serial killer) a penguin (because I actually think I was just wrong there about his reaction to the scumread) and a person who I generally don’t want to lynch on D1 without very strong reasons to believe she’s scum what are we left with?
A lilith, a chemist, and an S_S"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Menalque he/himSurvivor
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
Because i want to lynch the turkey, I feel I’ve been very clear on this firebringerIn post 1510, Firebringer wrote:if ss is in ur solve why not vote him"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Menalque he/himSurvivor
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
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- Location: Madrid, Spain
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
I find it weird that you would take this as me being self aware of what scum!me would be doing if that’s what you’re talking about. I think it’s pretty well known that I prefer rolling town and I’m just saying straight up that while I can emulate my towngames’ effort i would have been super bummed out if I’d rolled scum back in this game and prob wouldn’t have bothered too. Or I would have tried and dismally failedIn post 1495, Menalque wrote:If I’d rolled scum in my first game back I wouldn’t be trying this hard
Do you think I’m having to force myself to engage with this game, skitter?"we knew everything... And we knew nothing."- Menalque
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Menalque he/himSurvivor
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
- Menalque
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
- Menalque
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he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
- Menalque
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Menalque he/himSurvivor
- Menalque
he/him- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 22775
- Joined: May 15, 2019
- Pronoun: he/him
- Location: Madrid, Spain
You... know he’s outright claimed SK right?In post 1520, Firebringer wrote:i could def see gobbles play here coming from tpr, so i am very hesitant to join u mena."we knew everything... And we knew nothing." - Menalque
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