Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Bingle]

I think Bingle trying to rationally explain something away because it is the logical action is exactly what scum him would do after not taking the logical course.

Why would I not do the logical thing when not doing the logical thing directly harms my chances of winning?

The last time this came up, the reason I wasn't doing the logical thing was because it was a closed setup and doing the logical thing outed me as scum because of information not everyone was privy to (the scumteam was smaller than it should be). There is no such consideration here.

[Bingle]

I kinda just wanna lynch S_S/A50 and call it a day but I'll only do it if me and Mena can come to an agreement.

You would have to chose only one of the two, because I am not letting Bingle get away with this if he is Scum. It's S_S or Bingle for me, so these are the only 2 acceptable lynches for the rest of the game.

I don't know why you think you not being an acceptable lynch from your POV has any bearing on whether you're an acceptable lynch from the town POV.

I'm actually pretty okay with lynching A50 and just blaming him for the loss if he flips town and you guys myslynch me at this point.

VOTE: A50

[Bingle]

I'm actually pretty okay with lynching A50 and just blaming him for the loss if he flips town and you guys myslynch me at this point.

[Bingle]

I think it’s perfectly likely he might have used it, specifically the ninja component

WHY WOULD I USE THE NINJA N2 WHEN I EITHER KNEW THERE WAS A RISK OF FAILING THE KILL OR SHOT PB AND ALSO HAD A CLAIMED VIG WHO NEEDED TO DIE?

A50 is arguing that the answer to that question is because I somehow knew all of: "It was a JK, not a doc. The vig who had every remaining scum in her bottom tier of reads was going to shoot the one least likely to endgame. There was an unclaimed tracker who would be targeting me."

I could not have known any of those to the degree I would have been comfortable acting on them. I wouldn't have let FB die because leaving him alive to be lynched doesn't hurt me and if he does get lynched I can bus him for towncred. Me being scum here presumes simultaneously that I am impossibly good at being scum AND impossibly bad at being scum.

[Bingle]

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Y-es, I just don’t know if I’m totally convinced yet

It kinda doesn't matter if you are, tbh.

You die tonight regardless. Maria is sold on PP town and a successful scumlynch requires all of the town players to be on it tomorrow.

PP has already won the game if he's scum, so thinking about PP scum is a waste of time.

[Bingle]

I'm only willing to lynch A50 at this point, tbh. He makes the most sense as scum of all remaining players by VCA and he's pushing a bad faith argument to include me in the lynch pool when common sense says I shouldn't be in the lynch pool at all.

[Bingle]

I mean... I could quote the reasons I think SS is town. I think both you and Mena make compelling arguments for PP town. A50 is very much acting not town.

If I have to be lynched, he's the other lynch 1000% of the time. I should not have to be lynched.

[Bingle]

N-on DON’T PUT THAT PRESSURE ON ME MARIA, TELL ME YOU’RE STUBBORNLY STICKING TO YOUR OWN READS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS

The pressure of whether or not to lynch the person you're townreading?

Dude, just accept that in the case where Penguin is scum he's snowed enough of the remaining players that it's just not worth agonizing over. If he's scum he deserves the win.

[Bingle]

The VCA.

[Bingle]

Specifically, it means there was a wagon of 4 town on maria!town in response to S_S wagon collapsing

And instead of moving or doing anything to support the most likely wagon to then flip town, PP kept softbussing the whole time

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Peng trying to 1v1 someone he'd know was unlynchable (you, post tracker claim) also doesn't strike me as likely from scum.

[Bingle]

First of all, there's no basis to the idea that Tracker is statistically more likely than any other PR. In fact, statistically speaking, protective roles would have had a preference (assuming scum didn't shoot Pink Buddy).

Second of all, playing around a role that might exist at the expense of playing around a role you know exists is just bad play. Take the theoretical case: I would have been fucked if vig shot me. I would have been fucked if tracker tracked me. I would have KNOWN vig existed. I WOULD NOT KNOW tracker existed. I would have known vig suspected me. I would not have known tracker suspected me, necessarily.

Your argument both presumes I accurately guessed all of the roles in the setup when they were unclaimed AND that I would choose to play around the one I didn't have confirmation on. Hence, I would have been both insanely good at picking out PR crumbs and insanely bad at cost reward analysis.

Also, Lilith claiming vengeful when I already mentioned solid scum claims in the main thread and would 100% have taken that opportunity to write a claim guide in the scum PT if I were scum.

I also went out of my way to ensure Maria was actually hard cleared instead of soft cleared yesterday by getting Blake to commit to a JK crumb.

Lynching me is 100% the stupidest idea someone could have in this game, barring lynching an actual hard clear.

But if you want to potentially throw the game away on dogthoughts, at least lynch A50 too.

[Bingle]

First of all, there's no basis to the idea that Tracker is statistically more likely than any other PR. In fact, statistically speaking, protective roles would have had a preference (assuming scum didn't shoot Pink Buddy).

To explain this, before anyone asks, yes, each non T result has a 15/50 chance of being a Tracker. Each non T result therefore has a 35/50 chance of being a role which ninja doesn't interact with in any way. Let's make that 15/40 and 25/40, to make the assumption of no vig, which is not a given.

The odds that at least one tracker is in the game from the perspective of scum who makes the reasonable conclusion of 3 town Power roles, one of which was a vig given what we now know the scum must have known going into N2 is (15^2+25*15)/40^2 or ~38%. Less than half of the time. The odds of either a hider or role cop existing is higher, and both of those are much more dangerous to potential JOAT scum me.

There was evidence that at least one of the roles being protective, assuming scum didn't kill PB, and thus the odds of there being a tracker were even lower. Scum me would know this, and thus would play around the bigger threats, not the smaller ones.

[Bingle]

@Bingle: AP suspects you're intentionally distracting him with you new avatar. He says he keeps staring at .. @$% [connection terminated]

I lost a bet.

[Bingle]

What do you mean I can't just shift the blame if I'm wrong to Mena? Boo.

I think most of us are in agreement that S_S is 1 of the 2 lynches right? Or do people have another combo to talk about that doesn't include S_S?

A50 wants me lynched.

[Bingle]

Yeah, see, here's the thing. If we lynch SS today and me tomorrow then A50 scum wins. I don't trust that that doesn't happen if we lynch SS today, because PP will always suspect me and tomorrow we'll need 100% voter agreement to lynch scum.

[Bingle]

Bingle, recap me again on why S_S can’t be scum

If SS is scum, he was run up simultaneously with one of his scumbuddies, was softbussed by the other scumbuddy as the sole scum PR, and none of the scumteam voted MariaR when she cropped up as the alternative to two scum lynches.

Also there a thing a long time ago where SS seemed to be trying to derail the gobbles lynch onto Firebringer that I thought might make them not scum together.

[Bingle]

Like I think the JK claim would be super obvious to scum!bingle so idk why he’s making out that he’d have to be this amazing crumb hunter to figure out that (1) there’s a JK and (2) that it’s Blake

If scumme knows there's a JK and that it's Blake why would I risk blake stopping the skitter kill in order to play around a potential tracker?

Your argument is that I knew both you and blake were PRs, both you and blake would target how you did, AND wasn't worried about skitter killing one of me/FB.

It's not finding one crumb, it's picking out every PR accurately and what they are and what they were going to do at night.

[Bingle]

super, super invested in not being the lynch today

Yes. I am invested in not being the lynch when I should be mechanically cleared. And I am going to give you so much shit in the post game for even having needed to have this conversation.

[Bingle]

tl;dr We absolutely lynch A50. We should never lynch me. If somehow A50 is not scum, I will definitely not sit down tomorrow and eat the lynch, because of course I won't and saying anything else is just manipulating you. I don't think either PP or SS is scum at this point, but if necessary I'd lynch either over me because I know I'm town, and, more importantly, SO SHOULD EVERYONE ELSE BECAUSE IT'S GODDAMN OBVIOUS BASED ON PR RESULTS.

[Bingle]

And, what's more? The paranoia that PP has that A50 is feeding is based on me feeding doubt on what should have been a mechanical clear on PP to lynch A50. Which is exactly what is happening to me in this game.

[Bingle]

There are two very viable explanations for you being scum namely (1) you used a ninja to kill skitter or (2) you got firebringer to kill skitter

Me using a ninja to kill skitter is bad play, because tracker is low priority as a PR to play around.

Firebringer killing skitter is bad play because there was a VERY HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SKITTER TO BE PROTECTED.

I've explained the why MULTIPLE TIMES.

You are simultaneously arguing that I predicted every single PR usage on N2 with one PR claim, and that I'm a big enough idiot to risk a doc on skitter and a rolecop on me or Firebringer and a vig on me and a vig on FB and a JK on Firebringer and a Hider on any of the potential mislynches.

I will 100% be throwing this in your face in the post game.

And no, I have not nor will I ever intentionally make shitty decisions to throw people off of the scent because it's a far bigger risk to let town power run around unchecked, because town power will remove viable mislynches from the pool, unless they're too pigheadedly paranoid to actually listen to their own results.

[Bingle]

...how is roleblocking the mechanical clear on PP a condemnation of A50 more than it is of you?

L2Read. I said A50 is playing the paranoia of me convincing PP to vote a mechanical clear in this game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=80685

As far as why anyone would not roleblock skitter.... To strongman kill skitter through a fucking protection. Which is almost certainly what actually happened, because any other choice would be fucking stupid from any scum player with two working braincells and a keyboard.



There are two viable choices going into night with a presumed protective and a claimed vig as a scum JOAT. RB the vig or strongman the protective. I provably did neither. I would have had the ability to do at least one.

But fuck it. I'm done. If this is a town loss, it's YOUR town loss. You, 100%, are responsible for it.

And I'm done arguing the point. I will be responding to 0% of your posts for the rest of the game, because any logic I attempt to use will be met with a fucking brick wall of "nuh-uh" based on the idea that I'm dumb enough to shoot myself in the foot in order to maybe have an impossibly slim chance of a perfect storm of actions to soft clear me based on the existence of role I could not possibly have known were going to act the way they did.

All of my responses to you from now until the end of this game will be images from children's books.

[Bingle]

RB for the vig or strongman for the protective.

FTFM

[Bingle]

Bingle trs SS

And Penguin.

There are good reasons for it to be neither of them. I am currently voting for the person in the lynch pool who is neither of them. This isn't rocket surgery.

[Bingle]

[Bingle]

You keep repeating this like a broken record, so I'm going to ask you straight up: If YOU, Bingle, were a JK in this game; would you have been on skitter the night she got killed? In other words: Just switch your role with Blake's and keep everything else as it is.. roles, alignments, claims, lynches.. etc. Now tell me with a straight face that you would have JK'd the claimed Vig.

No, as a JK in Blake's shoes I would have JK'd proactively. Which would be targeting potential scum players, like (from Blakes perspective at the time) Firebringer or myself, who would be likely to make the nightkill. Which is literally the argument for why I'd have used the strongman in the first place. A doctor guarantees skitter will be protected, a JK means it's likely that people in the POE (which, again, included both me and FB for the night skitter was shot) won't be able to successfully make a kill.

A failed scumkill there potentially puts town into autowin (We're damned close without it). Given the presumption of a protective role existing (which is knowledge scum would have if they didn't shoot PB) there's a 50% of Doc and a 50% of a tracker.

Skitter is protected ~100% of the time if there's a doc. The killer is blocked 10% of the time if there's a JK (Even discounting the JK not targeting themselves or Skitter, for ease of math). That's a 55% chance of a game ending result via a protective role.

Given a tracker (~38%), the killer is targeted the same proportion of the time. (10%) By random chance, a tracker therefore has a 3.8% chance of being dangerous to scum (in that they would then have to fakeclaim a PR and potentially still live multiple phases) and a protection has a 55% chance of being dangerous to scum. Adjusting the likelihood of a tracker hitting to more accurately represent the gamestate ALSO adjusts the chances of the JK hitting by the same amount.

tl;dr, the only options for night actions from a sane JOAT were strongman or roleblock on N2. I did not strongman or roleblock on N2. I am therefore not scum.

[Bingle]

I halfheartedly protest this course of action.

Also, I will totally steal the hammer from Mena if given the chance.

[Bingle]

I don't think I'm a fear kill in this list from anyone in this list.

I guess A50 probably has the most respect for my townplay, but I think everyone in the list kills Blake or Skitter above me if I'm not killed for reads.

Best guess to why I would be nightkilled? I was accurately reading most of the people in the game D1, with the exception of you/gobbles/maybePP. If PP is town, I had a 5 person accurate townblock and every scum in my PoE D1, with a legitimate scumread on FB that I only wasn't pursuing because Blake was hardtownreading him and a S/T read on Lilith/SS.

[Bingle]

I don't think I'm a fear kill in this list from anyone in this list.

What I mean by this is that while there are players in this list who might normally fearkill me, all of those players have other people I would expect them to place at a higher priority fearkill wise.

[Bingle]

Bingle is town barring the possibility that I was protected or the scum making the kill was jailed.

Yeah, I was probably protected based specifically on this.

I don't really think anyone is more likely to have killed me than anyone else though.

[Bingle]

So....

SS, towncase?

[Bingle]

My LYLO philosophy tells me to vote SS, but my head tells me to vote PP.

[Bingle]

Not sorry for neglecting this game, tbh.

Maria, come talk to me.

[Bingle]

I'm around ish.

[Bingle]

I'm not going to try to convince you it's PP over SS, because honestly I just don't have a clue. I'd probably end up voting PP here if it was solely my decision, but that's mostly because SS has a playstyle advantage in convincing me, I think.

Both of them don't really make sense as the last scum from my POV, but I know one of them has to be. I'm willing to gamble on you being right given the lack of strong feelings over here.

[Bingle]

I don't. That's the problem. I don't scumread either of them, and honestly I won't feel bad if we lose to either of them.

[Bingle]

And unless your reason for sr-ing SS is something more direct than PP being town, I don't think I'm going to get anything from it, tbh.

[Bingle]

I’m going to burninate you if you’re scum, Bingle.

I did try to convince ofhrz to let me be a serial killer. Does that count?

[Bingle]

CONFTOWN

[Bingle]

Also,

VOTE: S_S

[Bingle]

Fuck. You're a scum penguin aren't you?

[Bingle]

Sorry, SS.

[Bingle]

Let me get my flame shield ready

Eh. I don't blame you. PP played a good game.

[Bingle]

Yes. Frequently. As both alignments.

[Bingle]

@Bingle: If that tantrum is an act and you turn to be the JOAT I.. I dunno what I'd do, but I'd probably hate you for the whole of next week or so.

Quick question, what if that tantrum was an act and I'm not the JOAT?

[Bingle]

Why are you assuming I didn't just win as the SK, SS?

I'm hurt.

[Bingle]

I blame ofhrz. I want my first ever 3rd party win already, dammit.

[Bingle]

I have an undefined 3p winrate.

[Bingle]

/inb4 SS flips vengeful.

[Bingle]

PB's avatar is great.

[Bingle]

Suck it Penguin.

[Bingle]

Thank you for modding, ofhrz! Thank you everyone for coming to play in this game with me!

Sorry @A50 for the mislynch, @bingle for the shitpush, @datisi for not defending you more, @skitter and @blake for not trusting your reads more

+1 wrt the modding.

Also, don't worry about the push on me. ofhrz can back me up that that emotion was all faked.

I mean....

I WILL NOT EAT GREEN EGGS AND HAM.

[Bingle]

Subject: Open 781: JK9++ Mod PT

Subject: Open 781: JK9++ Day 1

Actively don't want dead:
Bingle
Pink Ball
skitter30 Datisi
MariaR Penguin Power



Need to sort:

Blake Belladonna
lilith2013
Chemist1422
Something_Smart
Menalque
Firebringer

Not_Bad.jpg

Subject: Open 781: JK9++ Dead PT

It’s annoying that towns continue to listen to people like Bingle who have a pedigree of having terrible reads, but it’s probably better I was day 1 Lynch because I was feeling a lot of contempt for those forcing the wagon

Just gonna...

[Bingle]

So I took quotes from when people where trackers (or a backup tracker) in other games, then repeated those lines verbatim here

A+, great way to crumb.