Newbie 2025 | Lilies | Game Over

[Frogsterking]

Both MagikHorse and Casey voted Italiano as a single-person BW and interacted with him and nothing ever came of it before joining mainstream BWs.

[Frogsterking]

Bandwagon or voting block. For example on D1 there was a shelly bandwagon and a Frederick bandwagon at the end of day. If you go through the day page by page and keep track of everyone's votes (or just go through the mod's iso) you can see who is voting together with whom and their explanations for doing so. It appears to me that Italiano took extra care to never vote in a way that would pair him with the MagikHorse/Casey slot. He also has fought with the slot randomly throughout the entire game though nothing ever came of it.

He's had the opposite relationship with the Lavar slot that hard town-read him shortly into joining the game. He did vote with Lavar for a period of time, either on D1 or D2 I can't remember. Italiano voted with me for a while on D1 after saying he town-read me. It looks like Italiano votes with townies who potentially town read him to earn their trust and fights with his partner in the chat so they don't get paired.

[Frogsterking]

Thanks.
I am a little confused because Italiano only performed one action this night. This implies he is the goon. Why would the scumteam not just have the rolecop perform both a rolecop and kill? This seems like a much safer method as any motion at this point is scum, and info about PR is crucial.
BW is bandwagon

My guess is that Redados was the N1 role investigate. I assumed Casey had role investigated him. I wasn't aware multi-action was enabled in the setup.

[Frogsterking]

Frederick do you know if multi-action is enabled in the newbie setup?

[Frogsterking]

Frederick do you know if multi-action is enabled in the newbie setup?

Yes, scum can perform multiple tasks.
I am a little confused right now. I don't see why Fredrick is cleared.

God that's so annoying. I just assumed he was clear because scum would want to use their power N1 and the same mafia couldn't kill+investigate.

[Frogsterking]

I guess he's probably clear anyway because it's better for one scum to do the kill and the other to investigate so when the tracker outs them they can claim they're the other pr.

[Frogsterking]

I mean not clear, but it's less likely. He was under fire D1 so it's possible he didn't want to perform a night action.

[Frogsterking]

So my real reports were that Fred visited no one N1 and Italiano visited Redados N2

I was coming round to townreading ItalianoVD again, actually.

Normally, I would think scum doesn't say stuff like this regarding their partner and would be more eager to bus. However, Fred strikes me as a somewhat unconventional player. Any scumgames I can skim over?

I was thinking the same thing about you and how adamant you were about town reading Italiano, Lavar. That's why I was curious about your ideas about scum play. I wasn't sure if you would town read Italiano as a form of meta-distancing. It seems now as though you are aware enough to make such a play.

[Frogsterking]

I guess he's probably clear anyway because it's better for one scum to do the kill and the other to investigate so when the tracker outs them they can claim they're the other pr.

Oh wait this is true because they were killing Redados that night, so it would make sense to just have one member perform both tasks. Since they killed Redados, any motion detected would be fatal, so they would want to keep motion to a minimum?

Yes if they visit two places only a scum could do that confirming them to the tracker, also they may not choose to use the role report the night before the lylo if they already confirmed 1 pr.

[Frogsterking]

I've wanted to believe that both of you were town for a couple of days now.

[Frogsterking]

A couple of days IRL not since D1 of this game.

[Frogsterking]

ok, I am fine with voting Casey soon. I believe LYLO with her will be much more annoying in f3 rather than right now.

Ok, why do you say so?

[Frogsterking]

Casey as scum does not make sense given how much she questioned the scumread on you.

Fmpov Italiano and Casey were hoping that I would vote you today because of our interaction D2, and they've both been not-subtly pushing for that outcome today. I felt like Casey's questions were more of a question of you than of a question of Lavar. There wasn't really a bit of me that doubted Casey would hammer Lavar in a heartbeat today.

[Frogsterking]

I’ve read the past few pages and I think at this point we should all list our scumteam.

Frederick already stated his and I don’t blame him for thinking that even though it’s only halfway true.

My scumteam is

Lavar and Casey

, however, I’ve been wrong on both days so far (shelly / rocknil) so I’m not real confident about placing a vote down unplanned or without logic. I would like to hear from Frogster.

At that point I will make my decision and if the consensus ends up being me, there’s nothing I can do, but it’d be game over at that point.

I am fine with that.
rocknil said he was going to look for the scum team though, so I think we should at least give him that chance to get his thoughts out in the case he is town. In fact, if he does flip town, I will be questioning my townreads on you and Italiano.
Casey seems fine.

Posts like these are what make me think Lavar is town.

But then I cross that with Italiano's sheer confidence and Fred's familiar aloofness and a "pick two" situation just makes me freeze up.

One of you just do something extremely townie or extremely scummy please. Or someone talk to me.

One day I will probably take aim, close my eyes, and snap-vote based on how my gut is feeling.

Gun to my head I'd say

Fred/Lavar

because I've been able to connect on a better level with Italiano.

I'm reading both of these posts as fence sitting, pushing for a townie lynch while distancing from each other, and they put the name first of the townie they're hoping gets lynched because they are listing in order of operations.

[Frogsterking]

I guess it's awkward because either way one of Casey and Lavar were pretending have a townread on Italiano and Italiano bussed one of them, unless Fred is scum and decided not to use a night action N1.

I guess lynching Italiano today clears up some things because if he's the goon it would cast some doubt on Frederick choosing not to perform any night actions N1.

[Frogsterking]

I was planning to vote Casey tonight but I guess I will choose to sleep off the remaining alcohol instead. For what it's worth I thought both of your reactions to the real reports were townie enough.

[Frogsterking]

The longer the day goes the less confident I become in Lavar.

[Frogsterking]

I've noticed three times now that he's mirrored Italiano in his posting style and it's disturbing me. I'm not sure what to make of that except maybe they've been chatting it up in the PT and they're taking on each other's communication style.

[Frogsterking]

Casey hopefully these links will work better:

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... unting#VCA

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... _VCA_Guide

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=VCA


https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?t=70951

[Frogsterking]

Someone verify please: am I crazy or am I crazy? Am I just imagining these??? I believe there are others that I missed too.

_____________________

Well that wasn’t surprising, I figured it’d be me or Redados to get killed. Rocknil is a little surprising.

I’ve done my reading though. I’ve actually read 759 many times over and it’s still confusing to follow.

@Frederick: So are you saying you initially scumread Frogster for his obsession over what people thought of the nightkill and then 640 solidified your scumread or vice versa?

Actually, while that was what I was saying, I misremembered. I actually scumread Frogsterking for not seeming to attempt to solve the game, then 640 made me more suspicious. The rest of what I recounted was more recent and so I doubt I misremembered anything else.

I find it strange not to remember why you scumread somebody. Like it wasn’t a real scumread to begin with.

Some might even find it a little suspicious that you are townreading me so much . . .

_______________________

Actually, looking at the player list, it seems that I have a minor townread on everyone except for shellyc and rocknil.

Aside from Shelly and Frogster: everyone explain why I’m town.

Drawing out information through the early game (even using fluffier posts to do so), plenty of informative "hot takes" like 89 and 304 that aren't afraid to ruffle a few feathers, and snapping me out of the dumb Italiano argument helps as well (I daresay scum would've probably been happy if I just kept my focus on him all day long). Overall you're utterly oozing with drive and determination to figure players out, not just eliminate them, and you've now kept to your promise to explain things as well.

I would still like a response to 431 though, though I will amend that I've re-ISO'd Italiano and found his 149 rather weird, like he was trying to placate the town with a more valid reason to justify the Shelly scumread when we started to squeeze down on him about his fallacious logic. Am I reading too much into this, or is this worth the callout?

Weak. If you’re gonna call me out, then call me out. And yes that read was facetious, since you and Mush were saying how bad my reasons for reading Shelly were. You, however, responded and said it was better and now you wanna come back and push it again?

LavarManos - Absolutely 100% disappointing and gross posts.

You are not going to be able to hang me with no elaboration on those reasons. If you truly believe I am scum and aren't just throwing shade, please explain to the rest of us

why

I had disappointing and gross posts. Also, I think my posts being disappointing is to be somewhat expected, and I don't think "disappointing" is scummy in general.

________________________

I'm the town tracker, both of my reports are dead. I suggest not voting if you're town because with three to eliminate it gives the mafia the chance to quick hammer.

If this is true then Frogster is the only one I believe I can trust. Everyone else gets the heisman.

Italiano visited Redados N2

________________________

Welcome to the game Casey. You can definitely talk.

Who is the mafia?

Mafia: an organized international body of criminals, operating originally in Sicily and now especially in Italy and the US and having a complex and ruthless behavioral code.

I just did

_______________________

I have more experience with NKA, is anyone here amateur, pro or otherwise experienced in VCA?

Pretty experienced. My vca is trash. I’ve been wrong both times (shellyc, rocknil), so if we go by vca, I don’t look too good. I’ll try to see what’s happening elsewhere, but I wouldn’t have the moral authority to make a case.

I'll try to partner hunt, but considering my reasons for townreading Italiano were fallacious, I might not be the most reliable.
Between Fred and Casey huh

_______________________


It's creeping me out and making me want to vote Lavar.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lavar

[Frogsterking]

Fred + Italiano is cleared in my book.

[Frogsterking]

To clarify, Fred is clear in my book, for asking for an unvote and not visiting N1. I don't believe he's the scum partner at all.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Lavar

[Frogsterking]

You do know what you just did was extremely risky, right?

Yes.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lavar

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Lavar

I would really hate it if you lose us the game this time.

The vote doesn't become more dangerous the longer it's left on without a hammer.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Italiano
I believe Casey to be the last scum, but voting Italiano is the right move given the time of day left. In addition, Italiano flipping goon should semi-clear Fred.
Vote for fast night thanks.

Why do you want a fast night, LavarManos?

Perhaps because he is conscientious and the stress of lying is a burden to him.

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Lavar

I think that I'll feel some guilt if I don't attempt to post the results of my VCA.

Spoiler:

So my real reports were that Fred visited no one N1 and Italiano visited Redados N2

Neat.

Both MagikHorse and Casey voted Italiano as a single-person BW and interacted with him and nothing ever came of it before joining mainstream BWs.

First guesses always best guesses.

I guess he's probably clear anyway because it's better for one scum to do the kill and the other to investigate so when the tracker outs them they can claim they're the other pr.

You're coming at this in a way suggesting that mafia played in some perfect or robotic way. I wouldn't rule that out. They'd have to know what row and column they're in ahead of time and with my stellar powers of logic I don't see how that's possible.

So my real reports were that Fred visited no one N1 and Italiano visited Redados N2

I was coming round to townreading ItalianoVD again, actually.

Normally, I would think scum doesn't say stuff like this regarding their partner and would be more eager to bus. However, Fred strikes me as a somewhat unconventional player. Any scumgames I can skim over?

Is... is this... effort?

I was planning to vote Casey tonight but I guess I will choose to sleep off the remaining alcohol instead. For what it's worth I thought both of your reactions to the real reports were townie enough.

Why would you not vote the obvious maf? That's what the university you linked says to do.

I'm not sure what gave you the idea I lean toward being a follower.

VOTE: Casey

We have 27 hours left to discuss BTW.

Spoiler:

Also @Fred: #1070 is my answer to you. Before today you were like 80% town and now you're 99%.

You're welcome.

@Frederick:

Do you have any thoughts on the commonalities between Lavar and Italiano I posed in 1058?

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Casey

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Lavar

I think that I'll feel some guilt if I don't attempt to post the results of my VCA.

Spoiler:

So my real reports were that Fred visited no one N1 and Italiano visited Redados N2

Neat.

Both MagikHorse and Casey voted Italiano as a single-person BW and interacted with him and nothing ever came of it before joining mainstream BWs.

First guesses always best guesses.

I guess he's probably clear anyway because it's better for one scum to do the kill and the other to investigate so when the tracker outs them they can claim they're the other pr.

You're coming at this in a way suggesting that mafia played in some perfect or robotic way. I wouldn't rule that out. They'd have to know what row and column they're in ahead of time and with my stellar powers of logic I don't see how that's possible.

So my real reports were that Fred visited no one N1 and Italiano visited Redados N2

I was coming round to townreading ItalianoVD again, actually.

Normally, I would think scum doesn't say stuff like this regarding their partner and would be more eager to bus. However, Fred strikes me as a somewhat unconventional player. Any scumgames I can skim over?

Is... is this... effort?

I was planning to vote Casey tonight but I guess I will choose to sleep off the remaining alcohol instead. For what it's worth I thought both of your reactions to the real reports were townie enough.

Why would you not vote the obvious maf? That's what the university you linked says to do.

I'm not sure what gave you the idea I lean toward being a follower.

VOTE: Casey

We have 27 hours left to discuss BTW.

Spoiler:

Also @Fred: #1070 is my answer to you. Before today you were like 80% town and now you're 99%.

You're welcome.

@Frederick:

Do you have any thoughts on the commonalities between Lavar and Italiano I posed in 1058?

No.

Considering I tracked Italiano because of the results of my NKA, which you also did not have any thoughts on, do you believe it might be reasonable to assume these commonalities are also indicative of Lavar's alignment?

[Frogsterking]

Spoiler:

Yo Frog:

I'm reading both of these posts as fence sitting, pushing for a townie [lim] while distancing from each other, and they put the name first of the townie they're hoping gets [limmed] because they are listing in order of operations.

I'd appreciate it if you would actually pay attention today instead of phoning it in with confirmation bias. Here are

all

my reads today:

I don't know any more.

Italiano / Fred?

Also Casey what is your current opinion of the scum team?

Gun to my head Lavar Italiano. Or Lavar Fred. Italiano Fred has the greatest interactions and I am super sleepy and don't recall but I think I marked them as likely to be genuine.

Gun to my head I'd say Fred/Lavar because I've been able to connect on a better level with Italiano.

Currently feeling Fred/Italiano. It may be Lavar's lack of action that has me focused there. I'm giving Lavar a pass for being a newbie

It's genuinely impressive that Lavar is my biggest townread, and he's

emulating his mafgame.

Also just before you did your explosive gender reveal,

993 is pretty much where my opinion of Italiano dramatically dropped.

lol

[Frogsterking]

I'm pointing out a possible chainsaw defense (defending your partner by dismantling their attacker) from the slot that Lavar replaced into.

I don't like 41, for a couple of reasons:

• 1. There are many better ways to get information other than voting randomly. The statement made about "
  voting is the only way for town to make any headway
  " is both a stretch and an overreaction to a non-issue.
  
  2. SE or not, RVS depends on the type of player you are, it has very little to do with experience itself. There's a good amount of shade being thrown here with the "
  as an SE, he should know that
  " statement, and I don't feel like it's warranted. Statements like that should be made based on the player itself (and his/her play style), and not their experience with the game as a whole without any context.

Redados dodged MagikHorse's simple question in 128. While both the original post (81) and the question (105) aren't great, I find it odd that both Redados dodged the question and that MagikHorse never followed up on it. Why ask something if you're going to drop it without an answer? It's not a reactionary question in any shape or form, so there's little reason to drop it regardless of if you think you know the answer or not. This is especially true when you consider what MagikHorse said in 76 about pressure.

The initial vote was weak, and was dropped without any pressure being thrown from MagikHorse's side.

• If MagikHorse's vote on Frogsterking was (semi-)RVS, then he would've done a reactionary play that caused some amount of pressure onto Frogsterking. This not only would've strengthened everyone's read on Frogsterking, it would've allowed every players in the pool to create discussions and build opinions at a much faster rate. I say this because it's one of the sole reason why you RVS someone. RVS by itself doesn't help anyone, but the reactions and interactions you can create from it can. I'm not saying every (or any) other player in this game did this, however MagikHorse voted Frogsterking with weak reasoning which I would consider a semi-RVS and applicable to everything I just said.
  
  If MagikHorse's vote itself was genuine, then he wouldn't have dropped it so easily. There was very little content from Frogsterking before that unvote that could've caused MagikHorse to vote swap. Because of this, MagikHorse could've caused a lot more pressure onto Frogsterking to solidify his read before potentially voting someone else regardless of if he still scum read Frogsterking or not.

VOTE: MagikHorse.

For reference, here is what MagikHorse said leading up to van's first post and vote:

Call it anxiety or paranoia, but I’m not gonna feel comfortable with you until you are flipped and we know what your true alignment is.

I don't like this paranoid outlook at all. It makes it particularly hard to take you seriously regarding Shelly, especially as I don't see the biggest thing you've accused her of (repeating others) at all. VOTE: ItalianoVD

Is this you leaving RVS or are you giving an RVS vote off the lack of an RVS vote?

The latter mostly, though a start like that is a good move towards the former.

In any event, I don’t like Magik’s framing of it. Even after Redados explained it in 73 he still wants to pressure. @MagikHorse: What else would you like to know? I’d like to know what made my push on Shelly different from Redados’ in your mind? Same question for MUSHSHAGANA.

You're the one pushing this a lot harder, even to the point of admitting to being tunneled on her, and that draws my eyes as I consider this a very, very bad read. Redados is sorta just throwing it at her in the middle of all the fluff and joking around, and though he's said it he's also not actively pursuing it like crazy.

To be blunt, one game is

not

a meta. You need at least two, one scum and one town, to be able to pick apart the differences between. Trying to meta read off of one game is destined to fail, and I don't like meta reads in general as more than a supporting argument for something stronger.

This was my point. In the only game she played she was scum and she had tells. She uses those same tells in this game, which is her second game. You expect me to just say... “oh she’s probably town this game, even though she is doing the same thing and using the same tells she did as scum?” I’m not metareading per se because you can only meta read with more games. I only have one game to go by. Am I crazy? Does anyone else understand what I’m saying?

She's typing words. She did that during your scum game too I bet. Is she scum for that? Obviously not. This is a massively overblown hyperbole, but still the same sort of logic you've been using against her.

All you've seen is a scumgame. You claim an action is scummy because they did it while scum. You have no clue if they do this as town because you've never seen them be town, and yet assume you must be correct. This looks like a classic case of confirmation bias, and so I have to ask: What about this action specifically are they unable or unlikely to do as town? Is it reasonably possible that this is just part of their ordinary behavior?

I'll give you some credit for 149, but that's the first thing you've said so far against Shelly that actually has any real substance. Even then I find her aggression to be townie, and actually would put her as my highest townread thus far. The only thing that gives me pause is 134, which comes across a lot more stilted and unnatural to me than the rest of her aggressive posts.

Something I was thinking about. This is for MUSHSHAGANA and MagikHorse. Why are guys not questioning my townread on Redados? Redados is in the exact same category as shelly. It was his first game onsite and my first time playing with him. I’m using the exact same logic to read Redados that I am for shelly. If the premise of your argument is not to look at meta or to look at both the similarities and differences to come to my conclusion, then why not question my townread, why only the scumread? This is why I don’t necessarily like the push. I feel that if shelly is scum than one of you may be her partner.

I admit the Redados townread hardly even registered because you literally just said it once in 71 and haven't mentioned your read on Redados before or since, or any reasoning for doing so either. Even then "I want to think they're town but I don't know how they act as scum" still doesn't fly at all for the same reason the Shelly read does.

I went over all this in 154, but I never really got a response to that either. I'd like one.

Vote Count 1.03

Redados (2):

Frederick A Campbell, shellyc

Frederick A Campbell (2):

Frogsterking, MUSHSHAGANA

shellyc (1):

ItalianoVD

, Redados

ItalianoVD (1):

MagikHorse

Frogsterking (0):

MagikHorse

,

MUSHSHAGANA

MUSHSHAGANA (0):

rocknil

Not Voting (3):

van,

MUSHSHAGANA

, ItalianoVD,

MUSHSHAGANA

, rocknil

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

MagikHorse is the only one actively pushing Italiano as well as voting him. Then van suddenly appears in his first and only post, providing indirect "aid" to Italiano. This this is represented in the vote counts following 1.03 as well:

Vote Count 1.04

shellyc (2):

Redados, Frederick A Campbell

Frederick A Campbell (1):

Frogsterking

, MUSHSHAGANA

Redados (1):

Frederick A Campbell

, shellyc

ItalianoVD (1):

MagikHorse

MagikHorse (1):

van

rocknil (1):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (2):

van

, ItalianoVD, rocknil

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Vote Count 1.05

shellyc (2):

Redados, Frederick A Campbell

rocknil (2):

Frogsterking, ItalianoVD

Frederick A Campbell (1):

MUSHSHAGANA

Redados (1):

shellyc

ItalianoVD (1):

MagikHorse

MagikHorse (1):

van

Not Voting (1):

ItalianoVD

, rocknil

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

Prodding Frosterking.

After these two vote counts above MagikHorse stops voting Italiano and votes Frederick, while van/Lavar leave their vote on Italiano, which made this possible dynamic (van indirectly defending Italiano with a fake scumread on MagikHorse) something I missed the first and second time rereading D1.

There is something else I wanted to point out, which made me suspicious of Casey.

You'll notice a pattern here on D1 where Italiano prefers to vote alongside players we now can confirm as townie. In the post above, he's voting for the first time since RVS, alongside me. In the post below, he follows me to the shelly wagon, where we are joined by rocknil.

Vote Count 1.06

shellyc (3):

Redados

,

Frederick A Campbell

,

shellyc

, ItalianoVD, Frogsterking, rocknil

Frederick A Campbell (2):

MUSHSHAGANA, MagikHorse

MagikHorse (1):

LavarManos,

Frogsterking

ItalianoVD (0):

MagikHorse

rocknil (0):

Frogsterking

,

ItalianoVD

Redados (0):

shellyc

Not Voting (3):

rocknil

,

Frogsterking

, shellyc, Redados, Frederick A Campbell

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Vote Count 1.07

shellyc (4):

ItalianoVD, Frogsterking, rocknil, Redados

Frederick A Campbell (3):

MUSHSHAGANA, MagikHorse, shellyc

MagikHorse (1):

LavarManos

Not Voting (1):

shellyc

,

Redados

, Frederick A Campbell

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-08-25 15:51:33)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With nine players alive, it takes

five

to reach majority.

Note:

I will be at work when deadline arrives. Votes made after the official deadline will not count, but discussion may continue until I lock the thread for the night.

It seems like there is some effort being put into distancing here on D1, regardless of whether the partner is Casey or Lavar.

That's why I found it strange on D2 when Lavar and Italiano voted together on the Rocknil BW for so long.

Casey also touched on this and I wanted to point these posts out before the hammer:

I am here. Should I hammer shelly?
I think Fredrick did not vote because he wanted to give us more time to discuss. I still think Fredrick is pretty suspicious.

VOTE: shellyc

This is from D1 before hammering Shelly and I think these are terrible and scum tells. It appears that he knows it's going to be a mis hammer and is fishing for town points. It's a scum tell because of the part where he knows it's going to be a mis hammer. As of this date, I'm not sure I've ever seen a townie make the comments he made above.

For reference, here are the vote counts in D2 below where Italiano and Lavar voted together without any townies, which I thought Italiano might want to avoid and made me initially scum read Casey earlier in D3:

Vote Count 2.01

Frederick A Campbell (2):

Redados, rocknil

rocknil (2):

LavarManos,

Frogsterking

, ItalianoVD

LavarManos (1):

Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

Not Voting (1):

LavarManos

,

ItalianoVD

,

Redados

,

rocknil

, MagikHorse,

Frederick A Campbell

,

Frogsterking

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-09-03 18:44:04)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Today's opening vote count displayed an incorrect deadline earlier. It has been corrected.

Vote Count 2.02

rocknil (2):

LavarManos, ItalianoVD

Frederick A Campbell (1):

Redados

, rocknil

LavarManos (1):

Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

ItalianoVD (1):

Casey

Not Voting (1):

Casey

, Redados

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-09-03 18:44:04)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Today's opening vote count displayed an incorrect deadline earlier. It has been corrected.

Vote Count 2.03

rocknil (2):

LavarManos, ItalianoVD

Frederick A Campbell (2):

rocknil, Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

, Frederick A Campbell

LavarManos (0):

Frogsterking

ItalianoVD (0):

Casey

Not Voting (2):

Redados, Casey,

Frederick A Campbell

,

Frogsterking

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-09-03 18:44:04)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Today's opening vote count displayed an incorrect deadline earlier. It has been corrected.

These two vote together for quite a while until they're joined by Casey.

Vote Count 2.04

rocknil (3):

LavarManos, ItalianoVD, Casey

Frederick A Campbell (2):

rocknil, Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

Not Voting (1):

Redados,

Casey

The deadline is paused at 24 hours until replacement(s) can be found. Once resumed, day 2 will end in 24 hours, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Deadline paused. Still seeking replacement for rocknil

I also wanted to point out that Lavar is strongly town reading Italiano while they are on this BW together. It's like he's trying to play so closely to Italiano that they aren't read as scum buddies, which I think is a valid play, and one that Lavar seems to have the knowledge to make based on his answers to my questions earlier.

This is unfortunate because based on Italiano and MagikHorse/Casey's experience level, I'd expect them to make some heavily distancing plays, which is what they've been doing all game. It makes it difficult to discern the chances between an Italiano/Lavar and Italiano/Casey scum team because it's like two completely different games. I think if Lavar had done anything to town tell D3 or even D2 I wouldn't have had a problem lynching Casey.

Vote Count 3.01

ItalianoVD (2):

ItalianoVD, LavarManos

LavarManos (0):

Frogsterking

Not Voting (2):

LavarManos

,

ItalianoVD

, Casey, Fredrick A Campbell,

Frogsterking

, Frogsterking

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2020-09-12 19:00:00), at which point we will default to no elimination.

With five players alive, it takes

three

to reach majority.

[/quote]

I'm not town reading Lavar's eagerness to vote Italiano.

Today, they're even voting together again. After what appeared to be a conscious effort on the part of Italiano to vote alongside townies on D1, why vote alongside his scum buddy for the rest of the game? This is why I was feeling the Italiano + Casey scum team.

I think the answer is that either Lavar is less interested in traditional distancing than Italiano is, or that the scum team is Italiano and Casey. I think if it is Italiano + Lavar, then Italiano may have wished that Lavar put more distance between them, but he needs to play with his partner the best he can. I think if Italiano's partner is Casey then he's probably pretty happy.

Like I pointed out earlier D3 in a different post, both sides of the MagikHorse/Casey slot voted Italiano early in the day and neither pushed the vote toward anything meaningful.
"First vote best vote," as Casey said. For what it's worth, I think both MagikHorse and Casey looked genuine in respective their votes on Italiano.

I think MagikHorse's attempts to scum hunt D1 and Casey's attempts to solve on D3 look more genuine than Lavar's (and van's) respectively. Overall I'm leaning toward Lavar as the scum buddy now, however, I think there's a solid chance we've been outplayed by an Italiano/Casey.

[Frogsterking]

I noticed here that, in case of scum!(Lavar + Italiano), they are both actually being voted at this point in D2, which may explain why they were comfortable voting together on the lurker slot without any townies to buddy or provide cover.

Vote Count 2.02

rocknil (2):

LavarManos, ItalianoVD

Frederick A Campbell (1):

Redados

, rocknil

LavarManos (1):

Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

ItalianoVD (1):

Casey

Not Voting (1):

Casey

, Redados

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-09-03 18:44:04)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Today's opening vote count displayed an incorrect deadline earlier. It has been corrected.

There was slightly more pressure on the scum team D2 and they wanted to make sure the Rocknil lynch went through.

I'm going to flip through D3 on my phone for a little while to see if I notice anything new.

[Frogsterking]

I noticed here that, in case of scum!(Lavar + Italiano), they are both actually being voted at this point in D2, which may explain why they were comfortable voting together on the lurker slot without any townies to buddy or provide cover.

Vote Count 2.02

rocknil (2):

LavarManos, ItalianoVD

Frederick A Campbell (1):

Redados

, rocknil

LavarManos (1):

Frogsterking

Frogsterking (1):

Frederick A Campbell

ItalianoVD (1):

Casey

Not Voting (1):

Casey

, Redados

Deadline is in

(expired on 2020-09-03 18:44:04)

, at which point we will default to no elimination.

With seven players alive, it takes

four

to reach majority.

Note:

Today's opening vote count displayed an incorrect deadline earlier. It has been corrected.

There was slightly more pressure on the scum team D2 and they wanted to make sure the Rocknil lynch went through.

I'm going to flip through D3 on my phone for a little while to see if I notice anything new.

And of course, in case of scum!(Italiano + Casey), Italiano is voting Rocknil alongside the townie who townreads him, Lavar, the same way he voted Rocknil alongside me on D1, and Casey is being good at the game and distancing herself from her partner early on before sliding into the policy lynch. I found this second explanation more likely than the first of scum!(Italiano + Lavar) which is why I scumread Casey, after looking at the game as a whole though, I find scum!(Italiano + Lavar) more likely.

[Frogsterking]

Okay, I'm going to post one more thing I noticed then hammer.

[Frogsterking]

Two things.

[Frogsterking]

Casey mentioned that Lavar is emulating his scum play and I found another example:

Why are you voting rocknil instead of me though and why do you think we are scum together? Do you really think I would choose to attack him, but have him completely ignore my presence?

I am still townreading Italiano and I still townread you, so I am thinking we can try to find the scumteam in the remaining pool of four players based on how they have interacted. I do not think rocknil is scum with Fredrick because there is no need to open up the day with a vote on his scumbuddy. I also do not like how rocknil chose to ignore my vote on him.

Oh well that is what I generally do.
I know some players who will fight the wagon until the end if one of their townreads was being wagoned.
I'm going to try to keep looking at the interactions. I do like Italiano's tone and his denial of being townread was townie for me. I'm still townreading Redados too.
Another scumteam I do not find likely would be Fredrick and Frogsterking. I don't think that interaction earlier today looks fake.
Perhaps the scumteam is (Frogster, rocknil)? I am not sure.

It seems that not only does scum!Lavar prefer not to bus his partner, town!Lavar eliminates other potential pairs while scumhunting because he does not expect them to bus, and he is surprised when I FoS him because it involves a bus, believing his mindset to be universal to some degree. I believe this might be an example of Lavar having experience in certain meta of the game where bussing is extremely uncommon.

The reason I bring this up, is that I had issues believing Lavar would work so closely with his partner, however after understanding how he approaches the game as scum, I no longer have these issues.

I find this final post a sign that scum!Lavar may have been unaware of the intentions of his slot prior in chainsaw defending Italiano, or it may be that he did not want to draw attention to it.

Redados, why do you want me to comment on the post of my own slot?
shellyc, I am catching up. It is quite late for me, but i will be sure to get my thoughts in before the deadline.

For reference I'm including a link (hopefully) that contains a description of the chainsaw defense from the wiki in case anyone is not sure what I mean by this.

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... aw_Defense

[Frogsterking]

Welcome to the game Casey. You can definitely talk.

Who is the mafia?

Mafia: an organized international body of criminals, operating originally in Sicily and now especially in Italy and the US and having a complex and ruthless behavioral code.

VOTE: Italiano

This moment is similar to Frederick on D1 and I consider it a town tell.

I think we need to finalize a few candidates for the D1 lunch.

I have stated my lynchpool - either Redados / Fredrick / you. I would not lim either Mush or Italiano. I am fine with lynching lurkers/VI category.

This sounds creepily like a scum trying to find a compromise elim though. Just a gut feeling that I want to state here.

VOTE: shellyc

I do not like it that you decide to ignore the argument I just made.

I'm not sure why I consider it a town tell, maybe just because it appears genuine.

[Frogsterking]

I don’t know what to say because your reasons seem pretty good. I was townreading Italiano until LYLO where I said I was going to reconsider.

Did you notice the similarities I posted between you and Italiano?

[Frogsterking]

It does make sense you would town read the player with similar mannerisms to yourself.

Very close indeed. I have to admit it's a coin flip for me between Lavar and Casey. I feel like both players played the way I would expect them to as scum. Maybe I used my time ineffectively and it would have been better spent building a case on Casey.

I wonder if I would have more insight if the game were played over livechat instead of forum. I'm more sensitive to lylo dynamics there.

I'm curious whether the scum team was high or low communication. I believe Italiano + Casey could coordinate their distancing interactions.

Overall it's just a hair toward Lavar being scum for me.

[Frogsterking]

I don’t know what to say because your reasons seem pretty good. I was townreading Italiano until LYLO where I said I was going to reconsider.

Did you notice the similarities I posted between you and Italiano?

Yeah

Okay cool maybe I'm not crazy then lol

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Italiano