Mini Normal 2159 | Cinder Block Mafia | Game Over!

[Frogsterking]

I'm still trying to keep an open mind

[Frogsterking]

Why can't CFJ just be a mafia role blocker?

[Frogsterking]

I'm inclined to believe CFJ's claim, I often FOS PRs.

[Frogsterking]

Among the VTs I think it's important to not bring forth any presumptions about the game. I think two scum flips might be enough to find some solid deductive and inductive reasoning for lunging one player over another.

[Frogsterking]

On first glance it looks like Looker is town because Gamma joined town BWs on town players and didn't move his vote that much. I think it's worth looking into more closely.

[Frogsterking]

My FoS is Titus.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.5

Nosferatu(4)

~ Frogsterking(11), WaltertheDunce10(43), ItalianoVD(30), callforjudgement(34)

callforjudgement(2)

~ RCEnigma(38), Nosferatu(38)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Not_Mafia(10), Raya36(19)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(19)

geraintm(1)

~ SJReaver(47)

Frogsterking(1)

~ BananaCucho(39)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(31), sordros(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

NONE

FLAVOR

Scum know that Nos is town and avoid jumping on the BW, or scum is Nos or already on Nos wagon? Which is more likely?

[Frogsterking]

In hindsight, quick hammering there would have been better for them.

[Frogsterking]

My FoS is Titus.

I am literally conftown.

Not literally

[Frogsterking]

Fine I will reassess.

[Frogsterking]

This group is horrible to choose from.

[Frogsterking]

Do you guys think Gamma was intended to be deep scum?

[Frogsterking]

@Gamma: I know you’ve asked me a few questions and I’ll feel better about answering them if you can answer these for me. And these are not traps or assumptive at all.

- You mentioned that you were checking people somewhat visible but without claimed active powers. Did Not_Mafia who also faked a pr ping you at all. And on Day 2, Taylor was hinting at a pr along with RCEnigma’s second claim. Walter never hinted at anything. I know it’s probably WIFOM, I’m just trying to understand the thought process here.

- Do you feel the suspicion on you has been scum driven? Meaning, you have been getting scumread for a good part of the game and I would have to look back to see where it started, but do you feel your suspicion/scumreads are legitimate/fair or illegitimate/unfair?

NM's claim was prompted by Nosferatu's post asking for it, so it was less worth my time. I chose Walter n2 because I thought the second neighbor might have a PR or be scum, my expectation was initially actual that no action should be more indicative of scum because of that original supposition. I understand my second action is a little weird, but I already mentioned Among Us affecting my thought process and I think that's where the chief impact is. In that game I tend to like to follow up on leads that are already existent.

• Raya had better things to do.

---

VOTE: Raya

Don't @ me.

I feel the logical thing would be to eliminate RCEnigma today. VOTE: RCEnigma

lol Italiano he confirmed it
I agree with nos we launch rce for d3

Are you going to follow-up with this?

---

• CFJ is right - I picked geraintm over shelly D1
  • I had no idea who was scum.
• I wonder if CFJ would put this much effort into posts as either alignment. I'm willing to help him kill off RCE.
  
• There's a difference between survivalism/poor play and being scummy. I'm free to criticize either.

Among Us is taking up most of my time - it's mafiascum on steroids. The stupid comes at you twice as fast lol

They both mention this. Could be NAI, could be Gamma attempt ing to mirror Looker.

[Frogsterking]

LMFAO U DIDNT EVEN TRY TO MAKE AN EXCUSE

SHE CLAIMED ON THE POST RIGHT BEFORE U

VOTE: gamma

Why the change here from D2 - D3?

[Frogsterking]

Did tayl0r's death somehow make you less suspicious of RCE?

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: I don't understand what two points you're trying to compare in #1899. I've looked at the two posts you've quoted and are trying to figure out what they have in common.

Is it the mention of Among Us? It's a Mafia dervative that has received a huge surge in popularity lately, so it isn't surprising that it might end up sucking away the time of a Mafia player or two.

Yes you are correct in your assumption here and I respect your opinion.

I believe it means something that Gamma brought the same thing up later.

I think a scum might out an excuse for their in-game behavior that's similar to one another townie has used rather than their partner who is also under suspicion.

[Frogsterking]

I'm less inclined to lynch Looker today for this reason.

[Frogsterking]

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

[Frogsterking]

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

+ Do you think he was intending to die or win lylo?

[Frogsterking]

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

Why would a townie even need to know Italiano's schedule? Either he's confirmed or he isn't (in this case, he's confirmed). So at this point, any further Friendly Neighbour actions he has are effectively Fruit Vendor actions (i.e. they're visible to the recipient but no additional information is gained); and seeing as he's confirmed, he can use them as he likes.

Knowing Italiano's schedule would only be useful to eliminate possibilities in which Italiano were scum, but those possibilities have been eliminated anyway.

I was mostly trying to get a sense of whether my thoughts were on track without asking the person I felt would have had the least motive to tell the truth (Walter, if he was scum).

I recall SRing Walter d1 but d2 he wasn't really a focal point for me at all

I've already claimed tracker, maybe trying reading the actual game instead of hopping immediately to VCA? I know you did this same thing of in Arbiter's Takeover so this doesn't look good on you.
I'm scumleaning walter, not sure on geraint, cfj I am thinking is scum rn

Walter is scum via setup spec, call is scum because I don't like how he's reacted to my questioning. Geraint I mostly have lost my handle on, I had a read on him earlier but don't feel as strongly about it now and have lost focus on that reasoning

And that doesn't change the fact this is the exact play you had in AT, and RCE wasn't exactly a towny slot to start with. You should be able to read at least a few things, rather than just being a total stick in the mud and forcing everyone else to walk you through the game. There's inherent scum advantage to that as well, as it let's you figure out the gamestate without having to put your mindset out there while doing so. In fact:
VOTE: Titus
This doesn't move until there's a good reason to vote someone else or you read at least enough of today to figure out what's going on.

Gamma acts more confused around reads on certain players and I believe those players are town.

[Frogsterking]

Confused and conflicted I should say.

[Frogsterking]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

[Frogsterking]

I'll wait for everyone to respond to my recent series of questions before outting my new FoS in ~24 hours

[Frogsterking]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

Possibly prob had realized outing as tracker was not the right move.

Okay.. and do you believe it's more likely Gamma knew this going into it and was intending to die or he that he believed his tracker claim was going to carry the scum team?

[Frogsterking]

The fact he even feels he has the space to throw something like that in there implies to me he has a quiet team mate.

[Frogsterking]

@

Frogsterking

: I don't understand what two points you're trying to compare in #1899. I've looked at the two posts you've quoted and are trying to figure out what they have in common.

Is it the mention of Among Us? It's a Mafia dervative that has received a huge surge in popularity lately, so it isn't surprising that it might end up sucking away the time of a Mafia player or two.

Yes you are correct in your assumption here and I respect your opinion.

I believe it means something that Gamma brought the same thing up later.

I think a scum might out an excuse for their in-game behavior that's similar to one another townie has used rather than their partner who is also under suspicion.

I'm less inclined to lynch Looker today for this reason.

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

@Nos

@Looker

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum?

+ Do you think he was intending to die or win lylo?

ItalianoVD
callforjudgement

Gamma Emerald
BananaCucho
SJReaver

Not_Mafia
geraintm
Raya36
Frogsterking

Nosferatu

RCEnigma
sordros

WaltertheDunce10

also
VOTE: geraintm
it's not strong but the thing I called out earlier is the first thing in a while that's actively pinged me

Anyone come to a similar conclusion about callforjudgment in 1275? Or am I off in this?

That’s not really part of my read on him at all

My heart and my gut say to townread cfj, but my head is telling me the few bits of potentially scummy behavior from him are worth pursuing
So I’d vote him around deadline but I’d rather listen to my gut vs. my head

Why would a townie even need to know Italiano's schedule? Either he's confirmed or he isn't (in this case, he's confirmed). So at this point, any further Friendly Neighbour actions he has are effectively Fruit Vendor actions (i.e. they're visible to the recipient but no additional information is gained); and seeing as he's confirmed, he can use them as he likes.

Knowing Italiano's schedule would only be useful to eliminate possibilities in which Italiano were scum, but those possibilities have been eliminated anyway.

I was mostly trying to get a sense of whether my thoughts were on track without asking the person I felt would have had the least motive to tell the truth (Walter, if he was scum).

I recall SRing Walter d1 but d2 he wasn't really a focal point for me at all

I've already claimed tracker, maybe trying reading the actual game instead of hopping immediately to VCA? I know you did this same thing of in Arbiter's Takeover so this doesn't look good on you.
I'm scumleaning walter, not sure on geraint, cfj I am thinking is scum rn

Walter is scum via setup spec, call is scum because I don't like how he's reacted to my questioning. Geraint I mostly have lost my handle on, I had a read on him earlier but don't feel as strongly about it now and have lost focus on that reasoning

And that doesn't change the fact this is the exact play you had in AT, and RCE wasn't exactly a towny slot to start with. You should be able to read at least a few things, rather than just being a total stick in the mud and forcing everyone else to walk you through the game. There's inherent scum advantage to that as well, as it let's you figure out the gamestate without having to put your mindset out there while doing so. In fact:
VOTE: Titus
This doesn't move until there's a good reason to vote someone else or you read at least enough of today to figure out what's going on.

Gamma acts more confused around reads on certain players and I believe those players are town.

Confused and conflicted I should say.

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

I'll wait for everyone to respond to my recent series of questions before outting my new FoS in ~24 hours

To summarize the above, I have a handful of new reads, all town except for one, and I will reveal my new FoS tomorrow night in the hope my questions can be answered before then, for scum hunting purposes. Here are my questions:

#1
@Looker
@Nosferatu

Do you believe Gamma was the deep scum, was he intending to carry the tracker claim through lylo or was he the throw-away scum with the game state today being entered into willingly?

#2
@All

Do you believe the frustration expressed by Gamma in his final post and in getting doubted as tracker were genuine?

[Frogsterking]

A final question I have for everyone: Do you believe Gamma was really on tilt when he died?

Possibly prob had realized outing as tracker was not the right move.

I agree with this. I think Gamma didn't have any sort of grand plan Day 3; just realised that the wording of my Friendly Neighbour claim was off, and combined with tracking Walter to me, decided to test whether Walter was a Friendly Neighbour too. Unfortunately, he didn't realise that it would reveal rather too much about what he was thinking in the process, and ended up digging himself into a hole, then into a larger hole trying to escape from the first one. I guess this is the same category of things as a "scumslip", although not exactly the same as scumslips usually are.

It's also possible that he thought "CFJ will refuse to answer this question, nobody else will understand why, I can get CFJ miseliminated like that", and failed to think through what would happen after I was forced into a claim. That seems less likely, though.

I think Gamma would have been quite annoyed/frustrated when he realised how badly he'd screwed up.

I see.. I believe these are all possibilities.

[Frogsterking]

Also, it's quite possible that this game's scumteam doesn't have much in the way of long-term plans. Some scumteams decide on a plan for the whole game, in terms of who's going to survive to the end, who's going to be bussed, which townies to go after, etc.. But most scumteams don't, and even when they do, the plan normally doesn't end up working out the way they expect.

I was townreading Gamma before he started pushing me over my claim to receive a Friendly Neighbour message, and I think lots of other players were also mostly ignoring him in favour of people who were more actively scummy. (Italiano had a strong scumread on Gamma (#1614), but I vaguely remember he was in the minority; I haven't checked.) So it's quite possible that scum were hoping to fly under the radar for a while and that townies would miseliminate each other.

Yes I agree and I believe the scum team is low-conscientiousness from the OCEAN model based on events that have happened this game. Arguably introverted and low openness as well.

[Frogsterking]

The *remaining scum or team.

[Frogsterking]

@frogster I don't know what OCEAN model is.

dubious personality model

openness to experience (inventive/curious vs. consistent/cautious)
conscientiousness (efficient/organized vs. extravagant/careless)
extraversion (outgoing/energetic vs. solitary/reserved)
agreeableness (friendly/compassionate vs. challenging/callous)
neuroticism (sensitive/nervous vs. resilient/confident)

It's not dubious it's the only personality model that has statistical evidence IN FAVOR of it rather than inconclusive or even AGAINST IT like many do.

[Frogsterking]

Also, my new FoS after reviewing the wagons yesterday was Nosferatu.

[Frogsterking]

VOTE: Nosferatu

[Frogsterking]

I'm interested in your reasoning behind that. What in the wagons pointed you to him?

#1

I believe Nos behavior fits into a classic scum archetype, the "coaster" and he can also be described as "sneaky", "smug", and "skittish". He made a move of this archetype called the "quiet bus" which he apparently likes a lot because he did it twice. He mixed it up a little with his first one, incorporating a touch of the "humble bus".

#2

Gamma wasn't the deep scum which implies to me he had a deep scum which could only be geraintm or Nos or else though it wouldn't be a deep scum. Gamma interacted with geraintm similar to others who were town.

#3

Nos knows Not_Mafia offering three explanations for the N1 night kill if Nos is scum (they killed each other because they were friends, or he thought he had a PR tell, or Nos was afraid Not_Mafia would be able to read him.)

#4

Nos mentions Not_Mafia being dead makes the game more boring at least once. I believe this is gloating and a classic scum tell.

#5

I believe Nos is playing this way because his personality profile is not one that traditionally does well at lying, so he is keeping his words choice (for the most part...)

#6

Nos actively (compared to other things) BWed Raya because of her reads.

#7

Gamma and Banana both jump to Nos aid in response to my push D1.

#8

That one vote count earlier that Titus and I exchanged about briefly could not be hammered because Nos was already on it.

#9

Nos reacted poorly to my pressure D1. He made some townie lines after that and now they will no longer divert my suspicion.

#10

Gamma mentioned he felt pressure from me more so than other players. I believe this is genuine and partly because of my attack on his team mate Nos.

#11

The PoE out of Looker and geraintm in some of my recent posts has a lot to do with this read.

#12

Killed Tayl0r over Italiano because of Italiano"s read on him.

#13

He made a post putting Walter and I in a sleeper scum category and it looked inauthentic to me.

[Frogsterking]

I'm viewing your post as a cop out Looker, answer my questions seriously, both of them.

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to wait until I'm on a PC to reply to your post this time, CFJ

[Frogsterking]

I'm reading geraintm latest post right now.

[Frogsterking]

I believe #1951 shows signs of the emotions agitation and/or anxiety and/or some other negative emotion.

I believe this is causing geraintm to post out of character.

I don't believe at this time that this is AI. I can cross-reference #1951 with something I saw earlier.

[Frogsterking]

I believe #1951 shows signs of the emotions agitation and/or anxiety and/or some other negative emotion.

I believe this is causing geraintm to post out of character.

I don't believe at this time that this is AI. I can cross-reference #1951 with something I saw earlier.

I will need access to a desktop tomorrow.

[Frogsterking]

Yeah Looker, you're my compromise target. So how's about leaving the obvtown alone?

Obvtown what what

[Frogsterking]

I call obvtown "successfully increasing win percentage, slightly"

[Frogsterking]

Yeah Looker, you're my compromise target. So how's about leaving the obvtown alone?

Yeah Looker, you're my compromise target. So how's about leaving the obvtown alone?

Obvtown what what

I call obvtown "successfully increasing win percentage, slightly"

py.towntell.confirmed.script

[Frogsterking]

Frogster are you drunk?

Yes good read!

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.13

shellyc(5)

~ Tayl0r Swift(42), Frogsterking(46), ItalianoVD(68), WaltertheDunce10(73), geraintm(70)

WaltertheDunce10(4)

~ Raya36(57), Not_Mafia(25), callforjudgement(68), Nosferatu(83)

ItalianoVD(2)

~ RCEnigma(66), shellyc(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(80), Looker(55)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

• prodding Not_Mafia
  
• looking for a replacement for shellyc

Votecount 1.FINAL

shellyc(7)

~ Tayl0r Swift(48), Frogsterking(47), ItalianoVD(69), WaltertheDunce10(75), Nosferatu(85), RCEnigma(67), geraintm(74)

-- HAMMER

WaltertheDunce10(3)

~ Raya36(60), Not_Mafia(29), callforjudgement(70)

geraintm(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(82), Looker(56)

ItalianoVD(1)

~ shellyc(70)


Not Voting (0):

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

@Frogster, Does Geratim fit within your Ocean theory? Did Walter claim D1?

I struggle to see how the Walter and Shelley wagons are pure. If I am understanding you correctly, the scumteam is low engagement. That should mean most of my VCA clears are correct (Nos, you). I know I am town.

That leaves CFD and geratim as suspects.

I struggle to buy Looker as scum because that would make 2 scum voting elsewhere while shelley was wagoned.

Sorry Titus I missed this post reading the thread yesterday, I'll reply to your questions tomorrow.

[Frogsterking]

one of the more bizarre cases i've read

By bizarre you mean it's correct, I'm assuming.

[Frogsterking]

I believe #1951 shows signs of the emotions agitation and/or anxiety and/or some other negative emotion.

I believe this is causing geraintm to post out of character.

I don't believe at this time that this is AI. I can cross-reference #1951 with something I saw earlier.

I was trying to convey the emotions I was having when I was posting, is that what you mean?

Yes, if I understand you correctly, we're talking about the same thing.

[Frogsterking]

Votecount 1.5

Nosferatu(4)

~ Frogsterking(11), WaltertheDunce10(43), ItalianoVD(30), callforjudgement(34)

callforjudgement(2)

~ RCEnigma(38), Nosferatu(38)

WaltertheDunce10(2)

~ Not_Mafia(10), Raya36(19)

Not_Mafia(1)

~ geraintm(19)

geraintm(1)

~ SJReaver(47)

Frogsterking(1)

~ BananaCucho(39)


Not Voting (2): Gamma Emerald(31), sordros(6)

With 13 alive it takes 7 to eliminate.

Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-06 11:18:30)

MOD REMINDERS

NONE

FLAVOR

VOTE: CallforJudgement

Will you be doing so anytime soon or will you wait to see how the wagon develops?

VOTE: cfj

im so over this bullshit read my town pm and weep

VOTE: nosferatu

if ur on this wagon you suck at this game

it is anti-town wincon to bleed town d1 and you know it cfg, and that bullshit abt consequences of being on whats basically an rvs wagon is ridiculous

This is scummy

^ scumpost btw remember for later

I can't work out if this is genuine frustration or an pro town fake or a scum fake.
like, if any game you are in is causing you this must anger then just leave, it isn't good for your mental health.

this is exactly why i stopped playing in the first place but alas im bored and quarantined and i already quit the game that made me even MORE frustrated so here we are

you know what i dont think someone with an avatar such as urself would engage in this kind of pro-town behavior

VOTE: cfg

my god you are making it easy for a wagon to form on you

?

you think someone who couldn't take the time to carefully upload an animated avatar of some movie star consuming a cigar or joint or whatever the fuck that is and instead lazily uploaded black text on what appears to be cosmic background radiation would be the type to spend so much time pontificating about optimal pro-town play?

personally i find that to be a little bit dubious

I was just skimming part of D1 and this exchange seemed relevant now. Seems like Nos or CFJ needs to be scum for the BWs on both CFJ and Nos to not get pushed by scum.

From the mindset of a Banana - Nos - Gamma team I feel their behavior makes sense. The scum team is kind of just coasting, Nos gets BWed and goes for the full AtE/angry townie play, it works and he starts getting townread, Gamma and Banana see this happen and assume Nos will carry them and continue coasting. Nos bussing shelly and then Gamma makes sense. It doesn't need to be planned ahead, it's just intuitive. After Nos has the town read+tfn from Italiano the scum team feel more confident and Nos leads a BW on a townie that was on the right track with her reads (Raya).

I will post more and reply to questions tonight on my desktop.

[Frogsterking]

Alright I just hopped on my desktop. I remember there were thinsg I needed to respond to before today as well.

[Frogsterking]

I have been worried that this setup is implausibly townsided for a while. That's part of the reason I was so suspicious of Gamma; a Tracker on top of the roles I already knew about was just too much.

That said, there are some limitations. For example, one of the confirmations I have could not have been obtained on Night 1, no matter what else was happening in the game. I don't think it would have been possible for more than three people (plus the D1 and N1 flips, which don't count) to be cleared at that point.

I know that it's fairly hard to believe the setup, but it doesn't really matter at this point: we have three eliminations; from my point of view eliminating Looker and Frogster is enough; from your point of view you might need to eliminate me too, but there will still be enough time for that and it should be a forced town win regardless.

I'm still working on my post guys it's going slow, sorry about that.

[Frogsterking]

woops that's one of the quotes I'm using.

[Frogsterking]

I will be back in like an hour and a half to finish writing. I'm going to go and help my GF move some things for her job. Please don't hammer me lol.

[Frogsterking]

Back

[Frogsterking]

UNVOTE: Nosferatu

#1

CFJ pushing the wagon onto me first chance he gets against the reads of his clear (Titus), combined with ALL of CFJ's earlier statements in the game about how much he town reads me, combined with CFJ's earlier statements that his reads are not great and he prefers to sheep clears/townreads, is incredibly scummy.

#2

@Walter you said my D3 raised a lot of qs for you, do you really believe that's alignment indicative though?

[Frogsterking]

As a behavioral player I did find some reasons to scum tell geraintm. He made a lot of statements D2 about how the game is "weird" and how he is "confused". He also displays a narrow range of emotions, mostly anger or surprise.

I'm not casing CFJ right now because of the proposed plan to lynch him on whatever day instead, and his deceptive behavior that alarmed me earlier is explainable by attempting to conceal a town power role. His actions today continue to make me suspicious.

My best explanation for why I stopped casing Gamma D3 is that I made a mistake. It happens. I FoSed him much of D1 and D2 and was down to lynch him then.

[Frogsterking]

EBWOP: top townread among the unconfirmed players.

VOTE: CFJ

[Frogsterking]

Overall my first instincts in this game have been serving me better than when I rethink my actions so I'm going to stick with CFJ overall, and if I had to pick in the VTs I would pick Nos.

[Frogsterking]

Overall my first instincts in this game have been serving me better than when I rethink my actions so I'm going to stick with CFJ overall, and if I had to pick in the VTs I would pick Nos.

VOTE: Nosferatu

Though I guess my first instinct was to vote Nos..

[Frogsterking]

Looker vote your other scum read..

[Frogsterking]

@CFJ, Frogsterking is literally the towniest of the unconfirmeds.

He made a lot of posts trying to save Gamma on D3, despite not having a town read there.

That would normally be enough for me to vote him out of hand, but his play D2 was the sort of thing that only normally comes from town (summary: he spent pretty much the entire day tunnelling me, with reasoning so bad that it's hard to believe anyone would make it up, so it was probably genuine). So I had a rather conflicted read.

(A side note: last night I was dreaming about this game, and Frogster flipped scum in the dream. So at least my subconscious seems to think he's scum. I've never had a dream like that before, so I don't know how accurate their reads normally are.)

It means your subconscious

wants

me to be scum.

[Frogsterking]

I'm going to do an obv town dance ho-ta-ta ho-ta-ta hee

[Frogsterking]

Ra-ta-ta-ta-tee

[Frogsterking]

If Looker won't unvote me then I'll compromise lynch him.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I remember my play D3 now, I was suggesting a plan with Gamma similar to the one we are enacting now with CFJ, to test the claim. I was in Michigan that week and on tons of edibles and also drunk sometimes so it may not have made much sense and I don't recall what I was thinking beyond that.

[Frogsterking]

Oh I remember my play D3 now, I was suggesting a plan with Gamma similar to the one we are enacting now with CFJ, to test the claim. I was in Michigan that week and on tons of edibles and also drunk sometimes so it may not have made much sense and I don't recall what I was thinking beyond that.

To be fair I believe I would have made somewhat similar actions D3 had I been sober.

[Frogsterking]

CFJs play today is causing my mind to drift back to my D2 Gamma+CFJ theory places.

I wonder if Gamma's anger at the end of D3 was over Shelley's play end of D1. Both CFJ and potentially Gamma expressed anger over that.

Nosferatu skipping hammering me and voting geraintm is making me seriously rethink my Nosferatu theory.

[Frogsterking]

CFJs play today is causing my mind to drift back to my D2 Gamma+CFJ theory places.

I wonder if Gamma's anger at the end of D3 was over Shelley's play end of D1. Both CFJ and potentially Gamma expressed anger over that.

Nosferatu skipping hammering me and voting geraintm is making me seriously rethink my Nosferatu theory.

UNVOTE: Nosferatu

[Frogsterking]

I don't know, what are the odds at this point CFJ still flips scum?

[Frogsterking]

In CFJ's 2029 I'm really scum reading the overall sentiment and the final paragraph especially.

[Frogsterking]

I town read Titus and Nos lightly for not hammering me.

[Frogsterking]

That plan's actually pretty cool because if you use your night action on me then it will clear me.

[Frogsterking]

Geraintm's latest post and CFJ's unvote I view as slightly more likely to come from town than mafia. Everyone has town told in some form over the last 72 hours except Looker.

[Frogsterking]

Geraintm and CFJ's town tells are both the most recent and the weakest.

[Frogsterking]

Nos said he was going to pass on the hammer then he came back again later and voted someone else while I was still at e-1. Scum can 100% do that, it just seems like extra work and less necessary in that situation, especially when I was already pushing on him, hence the light town read.

[Frogsterking]

Nos said he was going to pass on the hammer then he came back again later and voted someone else while I was still at e-1. Scum can 100% do that, it just seems like extra work and less necessary in that situation, especially when I was already pushing on him, hence the light town read.

This was in answer to why you didn't get the same town cred as Nos for passing the hammer, geraintm.

[Frogsterking]

I'm starting to seriously consider Looker might be the last scum.

[Frogsterking]

• If I were Frogsterking, I would hammer geraintm before I was killed.
  
• I'm also surprised CFJ and Frogsterking are still refusing to vote. If you're as big-brained as you're implying, why not end the day? What am I missing?

---

I'm starting to seriously consider Looker might be the last scum.

Would it matter? This is a town auto-win. Why are you stalling? There's nothing you can do, Frogster - you lose. Vote already.

It's not autowin lol. And you haven't very clearly explained your FoS on me.

[Frogsterking]

My biggest issue in this situation is that my sense is telling me geraintm will flip town. This is leading me to suspect Looker due to PoE.

[Frogsterking]

I guess I will need to reexamine the VCA evidence produced earlier. VCA is not my strong point yet.

[Frogsterking]

[*]I'm also surprised CFJ and Frogsterking are still refusing to vote. If you're as big-brained as you're implying, why not end the day? What am I missing?

Bigbrain.load(gamesolve)

[Frogsterking]

Based on the behavior of the wagons today it also appears to me that geraintm vs frog may be T v T. It seems like the scum has simply planted themselves somewhere (Looker on my wagon for example.)

Another explanation I could see is that geraintm is scum and is unsure what to do.

[Frogsterking]

I think the game is not quite solved yet right? I am interested in reading the Looker case.

[Frogsterking]

I think the game is not quite solved yet right? I am interested in reading the Looker case.

Especially considering we do not know the role of the final scum.

[Frogsterking]

It seems like I'm having a hard time distinguishing between the conclusion that my intuition is telling me versus the conclusion that my senses are telling me.

[Frogsterking]

I don't think everyone is apathetic.

[Frogsterking]

I will also hammer geraintm to prevent a nolim.

[Frogsterking]

I'll try to do it in a few hours.

[Frogsterking]

CFJ, my reads are based on pattern matching as opposed to deductive or inductive reasoning. The patterns are relatively complex and so far I believe the patterns worth finding for the most part occur very early and very late in each day. I think most players use some combination of pattern matching and inductive/deductive reasoning, I think you rely almost solely on reasoning like inductive/deductive which is less common, and I rely almost solely on pattern-matching which is also unusual.

I also do not believe that you need to qualify your playstyle CFJ, it's similar to my friend who is a (literal) chess master. He just describes himself as a technical player.

[Frogsterking]

This game made me wonder if setups with longer days have higher town win rates.

[Frogsterking]

It's interesting that Looker and I both experienced extremely negative emotional reactions to geraintm after similar amounts of time playing the game: two weeks. It's as if we were experiencing some type of narcissistic exposure type symptoms with geraintm, like his lies were giving us a sunburn.

[Frogsterking]

This game made me wonder if setups with longer days have higher town win rates.

Let me rephrase this question: if specific time frames like one week vs two week vs three week for the same setup have been tested.

[Frogsterking]

lmao
Btw shorter deadline are actually generally more pro town

That's pretty interesting.