Musician Mafia: Guitarists GAME OVER

[davesaz]

Why aren't you saying the same thing about Gamma?

This is in fact a very good question, TD is in a place where it doesn't make sense to WK but I'm sitting pretty, and there was the time I had called NPOM and dave's shade bad and the way dave reacted makes me think he should be calling me out at least alongside TD here.

Your approach isn't thoughtless appeal to buzzwords.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Iecerint

BTW I love how it's "shade the obvtown so he won't be killed by mafia" day. I appreciate it, thanks.

[davesaz]

I'm guessing that's entertaining but not very productive.

[davesaz]

Is Iec at shred-1? Intent to hammer if so.

When I ran my experimental program last night, it showed a count of around 7. Take that with the usual caveats.

[davesaz]

where is Grendel in your shred preference order?

Re-evaluating based on posting. Very much WIP and may not finish today.

[davesaz]

If I view DGB vs Iecerint through the lens of who looks like manipulating, I think DGB fits that more.

[davesaz]

36 hours according to last VC.

[davesaz]

36 hours according to last VC.

Riviting addition to the conversation, dave.

You should write a book.

You were making it seem like there were mere minutes till end of day.

I tried to read rude's ISO and fell asleep before the end of the 1st page.
After a short nap I finished it. I agree there is basically nothing there but a little innuendo about flavor.

VOTE: a2rudeboy

[davesaz]

I was just fucking with you, dave.

timing/speed

Explain.

IMO there has never been any real attempt to push rude. Iec gets to S-1 and claims. People buy the claim and move on. THat's all good but the sudden appearance in shredding Rude was a u-turn I guess I wasn't ready for. Maybe, I just wanted closure on this day because I feel its getting to broad and wanted to reign it end.

It just feels off to me.

I'll explain what tipped me over to being interested in rude. We're 1.5 days from deadline, and instead of doing something with one of the useful wagons he showed up and started pushing lavender again. Then the iso-read and seeing how empty it is...

I'd still be willing to shred iec. I don't think we moved off because of the claim. It didn't sit there long enough for it to be a hammer test. It will provide a nice series of votes to analyze after some more flips. Who is willing to go there / not willing will be good to analyze if we end up back there. We need S-1's to gather data.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Iecerint

[davesaz]

Having so much screaming on the videos that I can't hear the guitar is a drag.

[davesaz]

I have reached the bottom of 187 and need to go to a dentist appointment.
Someone listed all the players in the "look at" list but me. But I don't have the extra minute to go back and see who that was.

[davesaz]

VOTE: chkflip

[davesaz]

I think there must be some mechanics at work. I don't see scum offing BEF over DGB.

[davesaz]

I think we're going to want to know what ability Bambi Jay used too.

[davesaz]

.....and Lavender is LOCKTOWN just like that.

If you're locktowning someone for not using an ability, you don't know how mafia works.
If it's for another reason then I'll reserve judgment till I see what your actual role is.

[davesaz]

.....and Lavender is LOCKTOWN just like that.

If you're locktowning someone for not using an ability, you don't know how mafia works.
If it's for another reason then I'll reserve judgment till I see what your actual role is.

Are you confusing Galron and Lavender?

Nope, I'm making an assumption that you gave Lavender something that she must not have used.
I can't think of another reason that merely receiving it would cause you to locktown her.

[davesaz]

Nope, I'm making an assumption that you gave Lavender something that she must not have used.
I can't think of another reason that merely receiving it would cause you to locktown her.

No it's Galron who has not used it.

Hmm, then I completely don't get why you townbinned Lavender. You're dodging that question IMO.

[davesaz]

I probably wouldn't use #3 right away, because I don't think my reads are ever good enough. (Though I did manage to vig two scum in the same game once so it's not completely out of the question)

[davesaz]

I'm going to say that using #5

immediately

may be a mistake. If the recipient is confident about living for a while, waiting until there is a wagon with few unflipped players could be advantageous. So for me at least it would require thought on the timing and choice of wagon.

If this is surprising to anyone, they haven't played with me in a mechanics heavy game.

Pedit: I agree about Galron appearing deceptive.

[davesaz]

I just came on site after not being on for like a day to see BEF flipped my flavor and I was given a new flavor?????

Erm. What??

This is why we need Bambi Jay to check in. Or at least it's a fair assumption that we do.

[davesaz]

Why do I get the feeling I'm in one of those Korina setups? Only this one doesn't have a CULT, I don't think.

Baker reviewed by Boon. So yeah...

[davesaz]

Roles or just flavors?

[davesaz]

I'm fine with DGB/Lav now.

Spoiler: ngl

I don't like coded messages and think of communication styles that I don't understand as such. But this isn't a complaint strictly speaking.

[davesaz]

Say again what your exact role is please.

[davesaz]

Is that a speech bubble in the lower left corner of your avatar? It would be fitting right now.

[davesaz]

Why does Galron assume his targets would even know they have been targeted or that it was him who targeted them?

[davesaz]

I'm making this post only so it can be used as input to my vote analysis program. The method for ignoring votes in quotes is also ignoring other votes. Please ignore, it has no game significance.

VOTE: deadguy

[davesaz]

Happy scumday. You're hopelessly out of touch with my play, so please go away. Thanks,

[davesaz]

I think Galron is just hinting at having a power to avoid getting eliminated.
The only way to test that is the way you test a witch. Let's see if it floats or not.

VOTE: Galron

Spoiler: stuff

That's part serious and part spookyday themed a couple days too late pressure. I'm thinking actual VCA (not the stuff being thrown about with unflipped people colored in, real VCA with analyzing the actual posting that goes with it) is probably a good next move. I hope I have the time to actually do that.

[davesaz]

If my vote analyzer is working correctly now, not a single player voted BEF with vote tags the entire game. It wouldn't pick up on just bolded votes.

A50 also stands out in the results. I won't mention exactly how for now. If you'd care to guess or relate what you see in A50's voting please do.

[davesaz]

Assuming the mod would send a PM -- nothing here.

[davesaz]

Not a wiki role apparently. Sounds alien-ish to me.
Care to explain why that's not just a scumclaim? Other than the obvious that nobody in their right mind would make such a claim as scum.

[davesaz]

Not a wiki role apparently. Sounds alien-ish to me.
Care to explain why that's not just a scumclaim? Other than the obvious that nobody in their right mind would make such a claim as scum.

I just did a quick Google search, seems pretty clearly a town based role.

Unless you think scum are aliens?

What exactly did you search? I got nothing on mafiascum wiki.

[davesaz]

The role from the other site that Drew(?) linked to would be a "vanillaizer cop" on MS, and the mechanically right way to play it as town would be to check people who had said they were vanilla to begin with. I'd probably holster a role like that early game expecting there to be abundant PRs and use it like a regular cop shot after some vanilla had claimed. The way Galron has handled it feels like scum vanillaizer wanting to know how many PRs have been neutralized.

[davesaz]

I'm typing up posts with the m word in them and then deleting them because I promised myself that I would refrain from using it as along as possible.
I suppose telling you to fuck off wouldn't be a violation of that promise.

[davesaz]

If you want to shred me go right ahead.
If not then shut the fuck up and look for scum.

[davesaz]

If you want to shred me go right ahead.
If not then shut the fuck up and look for scum.

Is anyone even voting you?

2-3 afaik.

[davesaz]

I don't know yet. We're probably about 10 flips away from the point I'll be actually useful. I solve logic puzzles given accurate information, it's my whole reason for playing mafia and it's my reason for avoiding mountainous style games like the plague. My entire thing is living long enough to have the info.

It's dinner time.

Pedit: VOTE: Galron
Let's try this again, this time with your actual role.

[davesaz]

Fine, I've had dinner and thought about it a bit.
UNVOTE:

Galron, please say again who you targeted on which nights. If you are town we should extract whatever information we can.
To go with that I'd like to see Bambi Jay's power usages to be confirmed.
Also please explain what would motivate you to use the unstoppable kill on the most obviously town player in the game, and not on someone you actually scumread.

@MOD: Please confirm that by quoting Galron's post you are saying that the quoted post triggered DGB's elimination.
If that quote doesn't mean it was the trigger then we'd be getting into the mod lies category and there is time to correct it.

This technically gives The Baker an out on whether saying it was Starbuck's invention btw. I think that would be confirming too much TBH.

We might still be eliminating Galron here but we do it with as much information as people are willing to share.

[davesaz]

Crap I might have taken too long to write the post.

[davesaz]

Can we avoid any claim shenanigans from here on out?
If it's worth saying it's worth being truthful and toying with being mysterious just isn't worth it.
If you aren't sure it's worth saying then perhaps don't say it.
We'll have a bunch of dissonance if we aren't in the same tuning.

Pedit: generally in electronics a killswitch turns everything off. I'd hazard a guess at universal roleblocker.

[davesaz]

I suppose having to hit submit 3 times was worth the pagetop lol

[davesaz]

@Bambi, Wanna confirm that you did what you said you might do?

[davesaz]

The dayvig came from Starbuck
Try to keep up @Bambi

This. I took too long to write my post after I realized what had happened or might have gotten the unvote in before hammer. Partly my fault for not immediately realizing what had happened. Though in fairness to myself and others it did initially look like a spite dayvig from scum wanting to treat it like a vengeful.

[davesaz]

Technically we're just assuming that either of those kill stops came from Bambi. The supposed global ability usages line up and the claimed flavor seems reasonable but there isn't an iota of proof. Alternative theory if we think the previous night was a universal RB, I suppose a lightning rod meshes with killswitch pretty well too. I'm not gonna rolefish into other reasons a kill might fail.

[davesaz]

VOTE: TiphaineDeath
I'm not amused with this foolishness any more.

[davesaz]

I don't object to the flavor question. I'd be more interested in why NPOM thought it was AI given the terminology the mod has been using since the 1st vote count.
The quoted post is mostly a rant on how DGB and Galron both approached their results by teasing people and trying to trap their targets in an error.
While there is value in attempting to trap scum, the same activity can drive a logic solver such as myself completely bonkers.
It's also somewhat of a dig on (lack of) replies especially to Galron after he identified who he was looking at. If someone asks you a question like "will my target please speak up" then holding back on that is bad for town. Though it looks like none of his targets actually received anything myself included.

My TiphaineDeath vote is blatant OMGUS because the loltunnel is getting on my nerves.

Sorry, I need to sleep soon as well. I'll say that looking for scum chemistry can be a mixed bag. Scum know they are partners and know they should avoid laying down connections, so behavior that you would think is counter-intuitive for partners is often the right thing to do. I'll try to remember to look at specifics.

[davesaz]

I have completely lost confidence in A50 town. By this time in the game he has usually pushed something or gotten irate about something.
If he has picked up on the reason for my early game TRs it is easy to fake as scum. If that reason is why most people TR him early game, even more reason to learn how to fake it.

[davesaz]

@Grendal I was right re inviting outsiders.

I got some criticism for saying it at the time but the fact is that it's not fair to give one player an advantage over another by bringing in a possibly perferred player(not saying Grendel was preferred in this instance, just as a principal).

What prompted you to bring this up?

[davesaz]

A massclaim of flavor might have worked before the reveal. Doesn't work now for what should be obvious reasons.

[davesaz]

No, rude said he has flavor information that two other flavors (from a set of larger possible flavors) are in the game and different alignment.
I think this implies 3p must be in the game so would be a good idea to look at rude for evidence of either pushing or dismissing the idea of 3p.

[davesaz]

Remembering that Boon is the reviewer / backup mod is important here. The set could be the boon-esque role that's like an eliminator, the corresponding target/survivor role, and town.

[davesaz]

I wrote a big post on who is which role by apparent behavior but it gets into wifom circles. My wife wants help digging up bushes. Maybe later.

Pedit: There are apparently 3 roles. What if two of them are 3p? If eliminator gets target eliminated, both leave the game and eliminator wins as 3p. If eliminator gets eliminated then target may either win or may have to survive to endgame. The 3rd role could be either town or scum but I'd tend to assume town lacking other evidence. I can't evaluate whether this is more or less likely than a town / 3p / scum split other than to know that The Baker and Boonskiies tend to think similar in terms of setups, and Boon has done the paired 3p roles before.

[davesaz]

Rude wasn't targeting the grendel slot the majority of the game though.

Immaterial. If it's this combination of roles, the eliminator / target both want to avoid revealing their flavor while prompting the other to reveal. The town will want to know who the flavors are but town tend to just be patient and watch for it because outing the big brain part will send the other two into hiding. There is no specific urgency for the town of the triad.

[davesaz]

For my part I tend toward helping the 3p who helps town the most. Hint hint.

[davesaz]

DGB just punched a wall in the dead thread.

Why do you say this?

[davesaz]

Aaron Marshall of Intervals.

[davesaz]

That would be possible. I can't properly evaluate how likely with available information.
Rude's way of asking the question implies he's one of the 3p btw.

[davesaz]

Yo pisskop your vote is misplaced again.

[davesaz]

Noise gate pedals basically ensure that noise doesn't get through with the signal, if I understand them right. If anything I'd expect normally loud roles to be quiet, if it relates to that modifier.

[davesaz]

Hmm, removes hum / static sounds by making quiet signals quieter, not so much lowering volume.

[davesaz]

Man, I'm trying but I am really not good at this VCA stuff, someone ressurect Titus Q_Q.

There is enough data now to make it useful. I'll dive in as soon as there is enough time. Depends mostly on whether my wife has any surprise tasks for me today.

[davesaz]

My votes are ultra-super bad ahah~

Nobody would ever think this suspicious right after 3 people say they want to do VCA right?

[davesaz]

I didn't get anything related to 308 on replace in.

[davesaz]

NPOM's updated wincon:

You win when all opposition to the town is eliminated.

You and your band win if you are alive at end game, or you take up 50% of the player list, whichever comes first.

Rather than talk about this obliquely, let's quote and dissect.
The town wincon is struck through and replaced.
The new wincon sounds like NPOM has to be alive, or the unspecified band has to be 50% of player list. NPOM and the unspecified band win if either thing happens.
If every member of the band has this wincon, then the real condition is: if any member of the band is alive at endgame, or the band is 50%, then the band wins.
I don't think members of the band are aware of whether it's themselves only or the any member interpretation. They have no way of communicating with each other.

Seems to be a cross between survivor and cult, maybe more a group survivor than what we usually think of as cult. We don't know if the band can actually recruit, and we don't know if the band winning causes the other factions to lose or if it's immaterial for the other factions. I don't think the mod can answer this, and thus he probably won't answer the pending question. He did say that wincon is basically alignment, but the answer wasn't 100%.

[davesaz]

They have no way of communicating with each other.

First question: How do you know that?

Cult, by definition, never do. But you're right I don't know that.

We don't know if the band can actually recruit

Second question: Explain why NPOM's role had the Town wincon originally, and then it was struck through and replaced by the band's wincon if he wasn't recruited mid-game.

What we can't know is whether it was a

recruit

or some other mechanic.

we don't know if the band winning causes the other factions to lose or if it's immaterial for the other factions

I think it's OBVIOUS that if they are alive at ENDGAME it means someone else won, and thy win WITH that "someone else".

On the other hand, if they reach 50% if the players alive the game proptky ends, so OBVIOUSLY nobody else wins (unless they already achieved their wincon, ex: the Eliminator who had already won)

No, it's not obvious, nothing is obvious.

dave cultslipped hard

I'm unwilling to post my rolecard and get banned. Instead I have to tell you to go fuck yourself. There is no such thing as a slip.

dave cultslipped hard

I agree

VOTE: Almost50

[davesaz]

There is apparently a band which is functionally similar to a cult, if you look closely at the flips.

[davesaz]

It's right there in the flip.

[davesaz]

For Bambi Jay since it doesn't appear that anyone else did this.
NPOM's updated wincon:

You win when all opposition to the town is eliminated.

You and your band win if you are alive at end game, or you take up 50% of the player list, whichever comes first.

[davesaz]

I doubt the mod is going to clarify but if

@Baker

feels like confirming for us that the cult win-condition does not create a loss for town, I am willing and happy to hear it.

I think it's OBVIOUS that if they are alive at ENDGAME it means someone else won, and thy win WITH that "someone else".

What this doesn't make clear is what happens if they get 50% of the player list before endgame. Do they silently win and continue to count towards their previous alignment, or leave the game?

[davesaz]

1 town, 2 band (former town), 1 mafia -> band and mafia win if the band leaves immediately, but town can still eliminate the last mafia if the band wins silently but stays in.

[davesaz]

Vanilla Shredder

[davesaz]

uuuuuuuuuuuhhh wtf
either something really bastard happened or I might be conftown??? I have no idea what's going on but I just came on site after not being on for like a day to see BEF flipped my flavor and I was given a new flavor?????

Have you said what band your new flavor is from?

[davesaz]

Do we still care who it is btw? Or just move on with shredding mafia like normal.

[davesaz]

That story is interesting. Couple holes there which we'll have to see what they mean.

[davesaz]

I made an excel showing vote by vote counts.
One living player stands out as often having a (relatively) high VC before the player who was eventually eliminated, with a count that goes down in tandem with the eliminated player going up.
I think it might be fun to point this out and open the floor for guesses on who it is.

[davesaz]

UNVOTE:
moron A50 is almost always town A50
there, I finally got forced to use the word

[davesaz]

VOTE: TiphaineDeath
Don’t know why y’all want to lose but whatever.

[davesaz]

Im a little sad that cult knew they could viably win with town, but kept trying to NK townie looking towns. Feels like they were wanting to win alone via outnumbering the roster, and working with town was just a back up plan incase they lost thier KP. smh

This makes me think that there is mafia among the cult.

[davesaz]

VOTE: pisskop

[davesaz]

Anytime y'all wanna engage some of the ol' grey matter and attempt to win this instead of flapping around like the proverbial chickens...

[davesaz]

Dave what are your thoughts on Pooky?

DO you think Pisskop would cliam 3rd party like cult in this situation if he couldn't win with town?

I don't get why people think Pooky is town.
The cult have been playing as anti-town. Nuff said. I don't trust the "I'm a cop" part either.

[davesaz]

Once Dave flips scum we’re coming for you Pooky.

Whatcha gonna do when I flip town?

[davesaz]

I'm town.
Nobody has tried to make an actual case.
You won't care that nobody made a case.
Don't know why I should care.

[davesaz]

I'll go one better than that.
No such case is even possible.

[davesaz]

what Dave flips

Vanilla shredder.

Don't forget that Bambi Jay's actions are supposed to be global.

[davesaz]

I'm quite certain. I suppose there could be a mod error involved? But I don't really know anything other than what my PM said on replace in.

[davesaz]

Why are we entertaining A50 as a role that needs to be NK'd to win, when he hasn't done anything all game that would invite a NK?

[davesaz]

Quit measuring your dicks and eliminate scum.
Hint -- it's not me.

[davesaz]

why aren’t you okay with a ml or two?

I'm never "ok" with a mislim.

[davesaz]

Why are we entertaining A50 as a role that needs to be NK'd to win, when he hasn't done anything all game that would invite a NK?

I think A50's claim is fake. If he actually needed to be NK'd he did not play it as such. He's only making that claim because it started to look like he'd get limmed.
Something that you think is proven isn't.

[davesaz]

I am totally uninterested in being culted.
I am totally uninterested in helping people who scumread me.
End of story. I've done nothing remotely scummy and there has been no explanation of wanting to kill me. Dying isn't my thing, sorry.