In post 3710, davesaz wrote:I doubt I even need to say what my preferred order is.
I view this as a 99% vs a 33% and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where the best odds are.
In post 3665, Hoopla wrote:
however, this logic doesn't make sense. we eliminated the PGO/1-shot vig slot on D1, and the other vig (if town didn't choose vengeful) isn't active until N3. so scum wouldn't have been scared of either vig on N1.
actually, now that i think about it, scum wouldn't have been scared of any roles N1 really, as they blocked cop,
knew
doc/RB didn't exist from their informed information, and the vigs weren't a threat. if there was ever any N1 to deviate from the status-quo move of shooting for PR's high in the draft (and instead shooting a strong player), it would be in this specific set of circumstances: where PR's are a low threat.
you could also argue that given the UB slot was out of scum's control and we eliminated a PGO D1, scum may have been fearing a high draft pick arming themselves with a PGO shot. shooting mena (who was one slot below DGB) is a plausible NK choice as he's a strong player guaranteed not to be PGO.
^could explain why scum NK that low in the draft N1.
do you at least have a preference in {SS/infinity/peta} as a secondary choice? even if you're locked into a scum!mena mindset, who of those three make the most sense as a buddy?
alright, for better or for worse, i'm locked in with infinity & mena, and choose the peta side of this 1v1.
VOTE: peta
for a little commentary:
i still somehow find mena's frazzled energy when he comes under extreme heat quite townie. i think there's something to be said for that. as for peta, i find his reactions under pressure more confusing. he seems to largely rely on wifom defences of:
"oh, this specific thing? i would never do that as scum. i have been thinking about the game a lot, here is X, Y, Z why i wouldn't do it"
.
like yeah, it's probably suboptimal to link yourself so obviously with dave if he's scum, but if we rewind to the start of this day before massclaim, dave & peta were two top candidates that would have been high in people's collective solves. he would have had to do
something
to avoid the walls of PoE closing in.
making a proactive move to link each other together to muddy PoE isn't a bad play - it's a good distancing trick in a late game to confuse the PoE and attempt to win the game in 7p ELo. having said that, i'd say this play is quite unlikely for most and not worth really considering, but peta seems canny enough (especially given his history as scum). it also needs to be mentioned that it's possible peta can make this play while dave is town too. i think everyone is quickly jumping to that conclusion, but it's not a slamdunk pairing.
i don't know. when i see stuff like this:
In post 3827, petapan wrote:but i came into the day with a clear idea of what the mechanics around claims were and doing a watcher claim that ties me to dave is pretty much the worst one i could make
all i get from this, is that it proves he's been thinking about the setup/mechanics a lot. and scum are more likely to be thinking about the setup a lot overnight last night. if he's scum the above quote^ carries a bitterness about not reaping the amount of credit he thought he deserved for such a play.
In post 3859, petapan wrote:i'm town and i tried to do what i thought would help, don't know why you think i'd box myself in like this
my working assumption is that you projected a cop-guilty claim today was a losing strategy: get a mis-elim today, but then when you flip scum, your buddies are too obviously linked to you, and would be next to go D6 and D7.
if you're scum, this play looks like a move of trying to win it in a 7p ELo before associations come into the game from scumflips.
In post 3879, petapan wrote:you know hoopla has written a tome to justify each of her votes today and while having reasons isn't bad it feels almost over-justified in context, given how she's shifted it around so much - she's voted 3 different people but there's a wall each time. if it was just admitting to a compromise, i wouldn't really have a problem but she feels the need to act like she's so sure each time but starts to look less believable when you move around as much as she has
generally speaking, i formulate my thoughts through writing. often times i don't know what i
actually
think until i write through it, as opposed to thinking of something first,
then
writing it down.
to spare the reader my wayward rambling, i'll usually trim the fat of any substantial post in a bid to be succinct. but i've definitely been favouring just posting as much of what comes to mind today, given it's such a confusing gamestate.
if not for a careful curtailing of instincts, i could easily have been a mastin in another timeline.
In post 4039, Menalque wrote:in my defence hoopla, it is my wincondition to not die today and the best way I have seen to do that is arguing frantically with absolutely everyone to try to make them realise they're voting town
what salient points have i missed in the last 6 pages? it's probably best if you can condense what has happened, as i don't have time this morning before work to read all that then respond to it.
In post 4044, Menalque wrote:I've basically been asking for explanations on how people (especially those who know me well, à la S_S, could really reasonably believe that I'm scum this game, and in the lack of those I am assuming scum
I decided that peta is actually probably town and that I'd rather try a last minute S_S wagon than vote someone I know is town, although I will switch back to peta if I can't get any votes on S_S bc at least I know my alignment and I could be wrong on peta
we barely have the numbers for you or peta, let alone SS. i'm not in favour of fracturing the town again at the 11th hour for a hail mary play.
the whole reason i pushed the town into compromising yesterday was to explicitly avoid this situation. chaotic last minute wagons where any vote can be justified almost always end up on town. seriously, i think the only way we get enough votes for SS is if he's town, as scum will happily push there, but if he's scum his buddies can just lurk it out for the last ~6 hours.
In post 4055, Menalque wrote:well peta just voted there and he was your top scumread about 24-48 hours ago
infinity will likely vote there if you do too
and S_S as town, even, will vote himself. if he doesn't vote himself at L-1 without the numbers for another wagon, it's a scumclaim
i literally have to go to work in ~20 minutes, and probably won't have time minus a small break to check in properly. so i'm not putting my vote in limbo on a whim with 5 hours left until deadline.
In post 4058, petapan wrote:how is that any moire true for him than it is for ether of us
these are the two established wagons.
by fracturing the town again, you give the option of lurking out a scum wagon or voting a new town wagon to players like dave and N_M. their votes are already in play on the established wagons.
In post 4082, Menalque wrote:if S_S town/peta scum this is like the biggest throw ever and I'm so sorry skitter
if peta town/S_S scum it's like the biggest save ever
yes, if we were right the whole time on peta, i'll be pissed, but i do think SS overall is the better move. and we probably pseudo-confirm enough slots to win.
In post 4142, davesaz wrote:I tend to think that 1-shots should not reveal whether the shot is used or not.
you should claim it. we're in a 7p ELo and need every townie to vote correctly for the next three days to win. i want to solve the game today, so we need all the information on the table, even if that information is a no-result.
In post 4148, davesaz wrote:Should scum shoot me, or keep me alive as a miselim? I don't want to make that question any easier for them to answer.
no, if you're scum i want you to be locked into your claim now rather than keeping the option of faking a guilty up your sleeve should you need it in 5p or 3p ELo.
In post 4152, Best Bird wrote:I will vote any of SM/SS/infinity or Dave if he keeps being dumb.
before anyone does any voting, i want N_M, dave, S&M to lay out their suspicions first, given each were all in on menalque being scum yesterday without considering other players.
In post 4155, Infinity 324 wrote:I want to know if people are leaning towards voting me or s_s more.
yes, we're eliminating between you & SS today given there is at least one scum between you (barring a ridiculous neighbouriser gambit, which i guess is now possible since N_M didn't use it last night).
but i still want those three to talk about the gamestate for a while, since they literally have no expressed reads attached to their name. at least one of you (N_M, dave, S&M) has to be town, so please try.
In post 4177, Best Bird wrote:Confirm things that were said in the neighborhood that n_m has repeated here. Not confirm the role.
oh yes, i forgot dunn claimed that "someone" neighbourised him. this confirms the role exists but not necessarily that N_M has it.
for N_M to be fakeclaiming, it requires scum to have roleswapped, and one of the VT claims to actually be the neighbouriser. i don't see the benefit in playing such tricks, because if the real mafia neighbouriser was ever eliminated, it proves N_M to be scum.
the only motivation i can think of for scum to do this, would be if scum felt N_M was a likely PoE candidate and wanted to bolster this slot's standing in the game by giving him a very town looking claim.
the above^ seems really unlikely, as this scenario still requires a mafia neighbouriser to exist elsewhere in the playerlist. if N_M is scum he's almost certainly a mafia neighbouriser.
i'd really love for dave & N_M to quit stalling and lay out out their suspicions (or at the very least pick between SS & infinity), because i am itching to say my piece and reveal my interpretation of the gamestate.
yeah maybe. but it still requires scum going all in on winning the game in 7p ELo, as any scum being eliminated would probably unravel such an intricate net of fakeclaiming (not to mention, one more day of N_M not claiming a neighbourise target would be absurd). usually scum are more inclined to simply bus the weakest link than to go all in with such a play.
interestingly, this stalemate occurred between two town wagons with nobody choosing to push either through. you'd think if there was two scum there amongst the non-voters {SS/BB/S&M}, they could easily push through one of these wagons through. as a matter of fact, given how single-mindedly defiant davesaz was of menalque being scum, if scum managed to push through a peta mis-elim, they could simply carry dave/mena into a 7p ELo and win. the fact scum didn't take this opportunity implies that there is less than two scum in {SS/BB/S&M} OR that a dave/mena combination in ELo wasn't winning (ergo dave is scum).
anyhow, as a consequence of the stalemate in VC 4.15, a late speedwagon was attempted on SS:
lets first look at it from the perspective that SS is scum:
given BB had opportunities to jump on mena or peta during the stalemate, but instead waited for this spontaneous speedwagon to commit to his vote, i find it hard to see that BB is scum with SS. remember, BB/SS were two of the non-voters during the stalemate in 4.15 - they could have easily pushed through one of peta/mena without garnering any suspicion.
it was at this point, that S&M evened the ledger with a vote on mena, pushing him quite hard. from timing alone, this move has good equity with being a partner for SS. however, if SS/S&M are scum together, it means they passed up on pushing through a peta mis-elim (in 4.15) that would win them the game in 7p ELo if mena/dave was a town/town pairing.
as such, if SS/S&M are scum together, then dave is almost certainly the third partner. i don't see why SS/S&M just sit back and not push through mena or peta during the stalemate when it was wide open for them. this specific combo gets pretty gross however, as it means scum must have taken JK with first pick (instead of vig), no-killed N1 AND taken 1-shot watcher. that is a lot of odd stuff to sign off on.
occam's razor: is the scum-team exactly SS/S&M/dave or are other scum-team explanations more likely?
well, if we remove S&M as a partner for SS, it allows for the possibility of infinity to be paired with SS, which i think is a possibility that few are considering, but given he sat back during the critical moment of the new stalemate between mena & SS:
i think him being partnered with SS is a real possibility, given he didn't hammer there. there's no way he could logically justify hammering mena given he was infinity's top town read. granted, SS was another of infinity's town reads, so if he's scum, he sort of left himself in a no-win bind where he can't justify a vote on either.
i don't know, i've been feeling pretty good about infinity for most of the game, but the fact we haven't eliminated any scum yet is making me consider things i wouldn't normally.
i was also trying to think why scum would NK peta last night. i suppose he did look quite townie in his plaintive wallowing near deadline, but his hammer on mena was pretty awful. so i don't know why scum wouldn't leave him alive as a viable mis-elim. one theory i've been considering is that scum wanted to force a fake 50/50 where SS/infinity are scum together, and that eliminating one will pseudo-clear the other from the perspective of "why would scum narrow down the redirector pool" like that.
although, the counter-argument to that is, if we eliminate the scum in the fake 50/50 who was a goon and not redirector, it guarantees that the other must be mafia redirector. yeah, there's no way scum give us that 50/50.
okay, so i'm ruling out SS/infinity scumteams too.
so, if SS isn't scum with infinity or BB, it leaves these as the only possible SS scumteams:
SS/dave/S&M
SS/dave/N_M
i've talked about the above combination. the latter combination still has problems too, namely N_M being neighbouriser - a role that scum has never picked in 13 games. although, if this is the scumteam, it means we have a town JK which gives us a 50/50 shot of preventing the NK tonight, and then a guaranteed no-kill the night after which would yield us an extra mis-elim. so, if SS is scum, we have a 50/50 shot of the SS/dave/N_M scumteam self-resolving. regardless, the elim sequence is SS --> dave --> then if S&M/N_M hasn't resolved we decide.
~~
this whole post was from the perspective of SS being scum. later in the day, i'll be considering the game from a scum!infinity/town!SS perspective and see which scumteams make the most sense.
this post i'll be thinking about the scum!infinity universes.
lets work out which scum-teams we can straight away discount:
almost certainly we can rule out is SS. as i mentioned before, creating a 50/50 between the two of them seems an absurd gambit, given that if we eliminated the right one of SS/infinity today, it would confirm the other as scum. so, i really don't see why they would risk that.
for the same logic as i mentioned in my SS-scum post, i don't think two scum are within {SS/BB/S&M} unless the scumteam is specifically SS/S&M/dave, as scum could simply take the win on offer with a peta mis-elim and a dave/mena 7p ELo. so, if infinity isn't scum with SS, and there's one (or none) scum in {SS/BB/S&M}, an infinity scumteam would require one or two of {dave/N_M} to be scum.
this leaves us with the possible infinity scumteams of:
my thoughts:
options 2, 3 & 5 seem like the only ones worth considering. or at the very least, i favour testing universes with the least amount of screwy things happening. the less leaps of faith required the better. then hopefully, we can draft an elimination sequence that has good equity in the most amount of probable universes.
however, i've kind of just come to the strange realisation that in scum!infinity and scum!SS universes, i don't see a likely scumteam that doesn't contain dave, so it almost makes me want to ignore the 50/50 and elim there?
in order to get dave eliminated today, it'd require whoever is town of SS/infinity to turn their back on a guilty, given whoever is innocent in this pair, knows the other is scum (unless N_M is somehow redirector). it's probably unreasonable for me to ask for whoever is town out of SS/infinity to ignore the knowledge they have today from their perspective.
we need to solve the 50/50 today.
out of curiosity:
@SS
do you agree with my PoE in the scum!infinity universe?
@infinity
do you agree with my PoE in the scum!SS universe?
obviously, you both have a bit of extra legwork to do, as i'm not confirmed to either of you. but i get the impression i'm not going to get much solving attempts from dave/BB/N_M, so i want to go over this with both of you while you're both still alive. hopefully i haven't missed anything obvious or am ruling certain events out too easily.
In post 4198, Infinity 324 wrote:I'm confused why scum!s_s killed peta, forcing a 1v1 between me and him, and his buddies aren't just hard pushing me. It almost felt like they were waiting for one of us to vote the other. I know s_s has to be scum barring a conspiracy, but I'm willing to consider it here.
What do you think about this hoopla?
I'm pretty confident you're town here but I will look at some stuff tomorrow. 4197 seems to make sense.
what would the conspiracy be? N_M being redirector? i admit, i haven't really thought about this possibility too much as it seems kind of farfetched.
for this to be true, it requires mafia to have a neighbouriser elsewhere. like, where can it be? dave's role is confirmed via peta's claim. it could be either of you/SS, but if either of you flip mafia neighbouriser, it confirms N_M as scum. the only realistic spot it could be is with BB, but that still requires BB/N_M to be doubled up scum on number 4.
you know, it actually would be a genius play if N_M was mafia redirector and BB was mafia neighbouriser and they swapped roles, as this hides the redirector below TGP's slot (and creates a false 50/50 between you/SS), while also giving N_M a very town looking claim. would also explain the woopsy-daisy of N_M not neighbourising anyone last night (because he can't).
In post 4257, Infinity 324 wrote:@4253 I’m paranoid as hell of the n_m redirector gambit, and you make the most sense as a partner there. I also think you make the most sense as a partner for s_s/dave or just with s_s and n_m. But maybe the most logical thing to do would be to vote s_s. Idk.
after sleeping on it, if that's actually what has happened, i feel like i'm willing to lose the game to that. there's likely at least one low% event that has happened, but to me that seems the least likely of them all.
to me, this angle seems like a waste of time to realistically consider. besides, N_M could always use his neighbouriser tonight (or soak up an NK). so there's a chance this conspiracy self-resolves some of the time.
In post 4287, Infinity 324 wrote:Fair enough, but it does make me want to elim S&M more. Regardless, I guess that’s not happening today.
Are you still on dave? I feel like dave is town but I’m not sure we can win anyway if dave is town, so I could be convinced to vote there.
i don't see a likely scumteam without him. but as far as i can see, whether we elim him today or tomorrow it's inconsequential as it doesn't inform the 50/50 any further. and to win the game, we need to correctly solve the 50/50 today or tomorrow, so i'd rather solve it today while i am guaranteed to be an influential voice in the matter. i don't trust the town to follow my lead should i be NK'ed tonight.
yeah, maybe. but if there's two+ scum in {SS/S&M/BB} it would be impossible for any elimination to go through without their participation.
to have (pretty much) the entire town split on two town wagons that deep in the game is so rare, i don't see why caution would be necessary given how snowed the town would be if this were the case.
but looking back, the stalemate didn't actually last as long as i remembered, so you have a point.
In post 4292, Infinity 324 wrote:s_s seems like the type of player who would tend towards inaction. Yes caution wasn’t necessary, but neither was action, and maybe they thought the only way they could lose would be to out themselves with scummy votes.
you might be right.
going to think on this for another ~24 hours then slap down a vote on this 50/50 before my busy weekend kicks in.
happy to chat with the rest of the cast before then.
sorry friends. got unexpectedly smacked with work duties. i don't have a lot of time to commit to the game any further before deadline, so unfortunately i'm going to have to go all in on the analysis i invested in earlier in the game and hope it comes up trumps.
VOTE: SS
hope this isn't a game-losing vote, but if it is, well played scumbags, it's been an entertaining tussle.
In post 4360, Infinity 324 wrote:No kill makes more sense if dave is town, since scum want to avoid a watch.
It also makes a bit more sense if S&M are scum cause it corroborates the JK claim kinda
I think we just no elim?
PEdit: with me SRing n_m, I’d expect me or hoopla to die. Probably hoopla since dave said I was scum with s_s
i think i agree with infinity's analysis. perhaps no-elim'ing is wise, as it forces mafia to make the first move.
no-kill seems like mafia trying to keep the PoE open and to see if town will elim in even numbers, or to try and solidify S&M's claim somewhat. N_M being the killer or killee is also possible if S&M is town, but seems highly unusual.
In post 4366, Infinity 324 wrote:Yeah S&M and n_m both being town seems absurd, so it must have been a no kill.
if we no-elim today, this is probably our last phase to talk together since one of us probably dies tonight. so lets try and solve the game today while we can run ideas by each other.
i've had a busy weekend and haven't really been thinking about this game much since we guessed right on the 50/50. so i'd like to at least use up a couple days reading through things.
In post 4374, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Also if we hit scum on today's elim I have a 25% chance of jailing the last scum and just autowinning tonight.
this is true. but it still requires assuming you're town, which i'm still finding it hard to believe.
i think the likeliest scumteams are:
S&M/N_M
S&M/dave
dave/N_M
but the last of those three seems weird now with N_M pushing dave. need to relook into when BB's bussing votes took place, but from memory, they came at times that made little sense to bus, and when there were a lot of other viable mis-elims.
In post 4387, Infinity 324 wrote:But what I really think happened was that scum thought s_s could win a 1v1 against me. They waited for someone to vote me, while positioning themselves to put votes on me first if necessary. Since dave didn’t out who he was leaning towards, they thought s_s could still win up until he got elimmed.
I haven’t 100% made up my mind but I think that makes the most sense.
thinking about this more, it may be optimal to elim today especially if S&M is one half of the team. and
especially
if N_M is the third.
the logic:
if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising
and
killing in the same night as scum don't have informed. so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.
this all hinges on S&M being scum. if they are, i think there's no way we don't brute force a win, as we get to test N_M
and
another slot in case we're wrong.
whereas, if we go the no-elim route we only get to test one slot other than S&M.
In post 4397, Hoopla wrote:
if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising
and
killing in the same night as scum don't have informed.
Scum don't have multitasking.
ah yes, that's a typo. scum don't have
multitasking
is what i meant to say. so, if there's one scum left N_M-scum won't be able to neighbourise and kill in the same night.
so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.
It's possible to have a no-kill and no-neighborize, if the 3rd scum is RB. That slot was not claimed to have been picked by anyone, and any of the "last in a chain" claims could be a fakeclaim to hide the RB.
this is actually a decent point. we've ruled out the doctor from existing, but technically a scum RB could exist. so, you're right here. a no-kill/no neighbourise could occur. but if we eliminate scum today, a kill tonight would still confirm N_M as town (because the scum RB wouldn't be able to block and kill in the same night), which was my main point.
alright, i just slurped down my morning coffee and i still don't see any realistic scumteams without S&M. so, i'm happy putting the game on the line now.
VOTE: S&M
infinity and BB have signalled intent there, so we just need whoever is town (or wants to bus) out of N_M/dave to get this through.
In post 4435, davesaz wrote:Nobody's going to convince me that scum no-killed on purpose twice.
In post 4436, Infinity 324 wrote:Nobody's gonna convince me that scum threw a game by bussing when they were 90% to win.
this is what it comes down to for me.
it's highly unlikely scum no-killed n1.
it's also highly unlikely scum needed to bus SS.
both are very low frequency events, yet one happened. and in a sea of unprobable events, you need to filter in reads/associations, and lilith has great equity with SS. S&M's late push on mena yesterday when the counterwagon on SS was threatening was also very telling.
it's literally only the no-kill being unlikely that is in that slot's favour. but now that we have confirmed SS scum, we're in the one branch of the game-tree where a no-kill
as a mechanically minded player, this game has felt very against the grain, and has been really making me question my intuition in a lot of mechanics vs. reads situations.
but if there's anything the mena elim has taught us, it's that sometimes you have to listen to the glaringly obvious, mechanics be damned.
congrats town for a hard fought game, and a knowing wink to my cunning scumteam;)
this could have been over much earlier if we had pushed through peta on D4 and taken dave/mena into 7p ELo as i was sure dave would mis-vote mena. as it happened, the unexpected rush onto SS caught us by surprise that i felt bussing was the safest option to ensure i'd at least win it in 3p if SS/S&M were ever eliminated.
town also had a lot of opportunities to crack the game wide open early. lilith wagon got to E-1 on D1, and it felt like half the town suspected me at one point over the first few days, though not simultaneously, which allowed us to slowly pick off my detractors. SS played a great town looking game for the first 4 days. it was perhaps fortuitous timing that when SS came under pressure, i was starting to look more town and build a game-winning alliance with infinity.
overall, the game had a fun balance of behavioural analysis, meta-reads and mechanical plays (props to SS for dreaming up the no-kill gambit N1 - this went a long way to clouding PoE and winning the game i feel). thanks to duckie for the smooth hosting job also.
also, sorry it seemed you weren't enjoying the game on D1! i invited you to have a fun time with ol' hoops, but as the gods would have it, i drew scum. i feel i probably would have come to your defence more if i was town, as it seemed quite obvious to me you were town - but given lilith and i were under pressure, it was simply too beneficial to quietly allow your wagon to go through.
Also i will henceforth be ignoring people telling me to listen to vague mechanical reasons for clearing people who i scumread, because i've gotten burned on just this like three times recently
by D4, there was good mechanical reasons to discount most of the players - and we knew that at least one or two of them must have happened (in this case it was a no-kill N1). so, unless you have good reason for being able to rank order the likeliness of these mechanical reasons, it's logical for them to cancel each other out and to default back to scumreads, especially when you have scumreads that the whole town pretty much agrees on (lilith).
also, well done on a solid game, skitter. i was hoping the continual survival of you and menalque would eventually start to turn you both on each other (from a why-are-you-still-alive perspective), but you managed to crossread each other as town strong confidently enough that we had to bite the bullet and NK you.
