Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

I also don't think Best Birb flipping scum would spew Hoopla town because that's a gambit I can imagine Hoopla pulling, given how insistent she was that it barely ever happens.

[Something_Smart]

*blinks*

[Something_Smart]

Was "I'm not claiming" just a blatant lie, or did you change your mind after reading the two posts following it?

[Something_Smart]

That relies on the existence of the TMI that Dunn has no legitimate explanation for. How do you think he knew that lilith jailed you?

[Something_Smart]

Well, your argument in 2736 assumes he did. If he just guessed correctly from her soft, he could have just said as much and claimed the aforementioned role he was softing

[Something_Smart]

What are you saying exactly, S_S?

You reasoned that Dunn claimed VT because he needed a bogus explanation for why he knew lilith had jailed you.

If "I picked up on her soft" was the true explanation, he could have just used that, which would free him up to claim whatever he wanted.

So, your reasoning only holds if Dunn for some reason knew that lilith had jailed you but couldn't claim why he knew. I was asking, why would that be?

[Something_Smart]

i thought this was softing cop ^

I mean uh sometimes people just say stuff like that when they aren't cops. I wouldn't say it looks like a soft.

[Something_Smart]

S_S have you got anything you would like to add (like a vote..?)

Not to my knowledge.

I could vote Dunnstral if people really wanted but I'd rather let them do so on their own schedule and I don't expect us having trouble getting enough votes to execute him.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorta wondering what scum are doing in this gamestate if dunn is scum--the answer is probably bussing, but I'm not sure why they felt the need to bus. Imo the case on dunn isn't rock solid, and dave or me seem like reasonable targets to push instead. It's wine, but something to think about.

It doesn't really matter whether the case on Dunn is that solid; there's no way he makes it near endgame at this rate. Which means bussing is not mandatory, but it is totally reasonable and pretty much without downside.

[Something_Smart]

those scumreads feel weirdly uncharitable.

What does this mean

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I

can

.

[Something_Smart]

I don't have a particular desire to make N_M mad.

But if you want, you can unvote and I can give you the hammer.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Dunn

[Something_Smart]

If scum are most of the way done figuring out the setup and we have no clue, wouldn't a massclaim help us more?

The cop should claim today for sure.

[Something_Smart]

fyi, "she claimed JK" is no longer a good reason, for anyone wanting that

Sure, but "she claimed JK unprompted on D2 after a no-kill in an organic way that looks like she thought she had a guilty" still is.

[Something_Smart]

do you think any aside from the cop should claim, S_S?

This question should probably be deferred until the cop claim or lack-of-a-claim.

[Something_Smart]

which is then added wine, because would you kill her as one of the main people supporting you!town?

I don't think there's a single person in this game who wouldn't kill skitter.

[Something_Smart]

ahh fuck it, maybe we should just massclaim

S_S? thoughts?

Like I said. First massclaim cop/not cop, then we'll figure out what to do from there.

Not cop.

[Something_Smart]

there's no way lilith thinks up that on her own

what makes you say this?

[Something_Smart]

i'm just gonna say it: i think not_mafia is probably the neighborizer, because virtually no one else in the game would have neighborized dunnstral.

Lol.

[Something_Smart]

Cop is with redirector, not RB.

[Something_Smart]

The neighborizer slot has been given out in every single run of this setup and every time to town.

[Something_Smart]

does it sound like I'm joking?

Are we asking rhetorical questions now?

[Something_Smart]

*blinks harder*

[Something_Smart]

Why did you claim VT?

[Something_Smart]

Lilith needs to claim her target asap.

[Something_Smart]

S_S where have you gone

Playing games with friends, sorry :3

[Something_Smart]

I am worried about you being scum bc of how you disappeared but I'm inclined to trust skitter's read on you and then

blame

gently rib her about it after the game if ur scum

I mean I am doing something irl and I wouldn't lie about that

[Something_Smart]

okay

i picked cop

[Something_Smart]

Let's figure out the rest of the claim order first.

It's me, Birb, Infinity who haven't claimed?

I'm thinking Birb -> Infinity -> me but I'm fine with going before Infinity if people want that.

[Something_Smart]

VT. Went for rolecop.

[Something_Smart]

It's a role I thought I would get, it's a good counter to informed and good at detecting fakeclaims in general, it can clear me from having done the nightkill, it's a reasonably useful role to deny from scum, UB is fairly likely to miss or at least not do anything for several nights, and the popularity of UB means that if the first role to die is something like jailkeeper or doctor then having that slot can serve as a deterrent because scum will expect a UB.

[Something_Smart]

Scum never takes 1-shot commuter right? So it's dave/peta or dave is town.

Nobody has ever (successfully) taken commuter. Scum has taken watcher but it's rare.

[Something_Smart]

I don't know.

I townread everybody in the redirector group. Given that one of those townreads is clearly wrong, that makes me feel like my reads this game haven't been very accurate.

Probably my strongest townread at this point, aside from lilith, is peta for his little juke regarding the role he tried for. If he's scum with davesaz then it ties them together really hard, and if he's scum and davesaz is not then I don't see the benefit to removing him from the redirector pool for no reason.

[Something_Smart]

Annoyingly Infinity being scum and Menalque being scum both explain the no-kill equally well.

[Something_Smart]

How likely do you think it is that mena and I are both town?

Well, not very, because there has to be scum in the two of you plus peta and I just said that I think peta's town, AND it makes the no-kill make less sense (I guess it would be a frame kill in that case).

[Something_Smart]

Why does peta-scum do his little gambit instead of just claiming he went for watcher from the start?

[Something_Smart]

I’m not even clear on what the gambit was exactly

He claimed that he went for N3 vig initially, then after everyone had claimed he retracted and said he went for watcher.

[Something_Smart]

So peta “confirming” Dave to try and take them both out of the pool seems likely to me?

Sure. But if he was gonna do that, why draw attention to it? I'm sure they had worked out their claims by the time massclaim started, so why not just claim he went for watcher from the start and then when dave claims be like "oh look there's the watcher, I knew it had to be somewhere"?

[Something_Smart]

I don’t see why it’s more likely to be true than a gambit?

It draws attention to peta, and to the connection between peta and dave, but confers no benefit. I can see doing it as town in an attempt to catch someone fakeclaiming, but I can't really see why peta would think it would be helpful to do as scum.

[Something_Smart]

I think it confers a benefit if scum are going for the easiest win which is tomorrow?

We may not be talking about the same thing.

I'm talking about: [peta claiming he went for vig and then correcting to watcher] as compared to [peta claiming he went for watcher].

It looks like you might be talking about [peta claiming he went for vig and then correcting to watcher] as compared to [peta claiming he went for vig]?

I know why he would claim he went for watcher as scum with dave-- to knock dave out of the execution pool. What I don't know is why he wouldn't immediately claim he went for watcher as scum with dave, instead of being cryptic about it.

[Something_Smart]

Does “doing a gambit” make peta look more or less town?

More; gambits without overt scum motivation are usually towny by default.

[Something_Smart]

Talking of which, skitter being dead is another point — why does a scumteam with me on it kill skitter last night?

Because skitter is a dangerous player.

As I said I think everyone is capable of killing skitter here.

[Something_Smart]

My point is, if doing a gambit (“changing the slot he claims he went for”) is something he thinks will make him look townie, he’ll do it as scum?

Sure, but I don't see why he would think it would make him look towny.

[Something_Smart]

But equally, if it’s not peta it’s just lilith/BB/dave

This team is impossible because none of them can be the redirector.

[Something_Smart]

Right but— why do I kill her right after spending 3 days pocketing her? And when she’s primed and ready to go on mission “kill lilith” that I can let her lead and then kill her tomorrow night instead?

I'd think you would attempt to pocket her as scum regardless of if/when you intended to kill her.

As for lilith if you are scum and lilith is town I would expect that it's only a matter of time before skitter figures that out.

In other words NKA is hard and unreliable.

[Something_Smart]

Why not?

Lilith can't be the redirector because Dunn confirmed she got the JK slot
Dave can't be the redirector because peta confirmed he got the watcher slot
BB can't be the redirector because he's below TGP who failed to get it

[Something_Smart]

Lilith is the only explanation for the no-kill, and scum-you would know that that's possibly the case coming into today. That would make her harder if not impossible to eliminate and might cause skitter to flip on you if she realizes that lilith is town.

I'm not saying this is definitely what happened, it's just a possibility. This kind of thing is why reliable NKA is so tricky.

[Something_Smart]

Idk gamestate feels suuuuuuuuper fucked up

Yeah that one I can agree with.

Why are you so confident on Infinity town, again?

[Something_Smart]

If mena is scum, this is the most wrong I've ever been on a townread. My heart isn't in a mena elim. I'm willing to lose to scum!mena.

What flipped it that quickly?

[Something_Smart]

And when mena starting posting the "I'm gonna die but I'm gonna put all my energy into solving so y'all can figure it out when I'm dead" posts, I remembered why I have such a strong TR on him.

...and why is that, exactly?

I've never seen scum-Menalque get close to an execution. But I don't really think he would respond any other way besides this. Was there a particular post that you thought was genuine?

[Something_Smart]

I'm also fairly certain scum!mena would be pushing me here.

I mean, if Menalque is redirector, then he has to push on one of {me, you, peta}. Given how close he was with skitter and how much he respects her opinion, it makes sense for peta to be the one he'd go after there, and he'd try to pocket me and you.

[Something_Smart]

For real tho, are you scum S_S? I just wanna know if this is you faking this level of respect for my scumgame or if you genuinely do

It wouldn't matter if I were, I wouldn't fake that kind of respect for your scumgame if I didn't really believe it.

Though, the only time I've seen you as scum I couldn't catch you until you tried to make a play, and if you're scum here then this would be your play and it doesn't feel especially fake, though I can see why it logically might be.

You just strike me as very self-aware both tonally and trajectory-wise and that makes it very hard to confidently say "scum-Menalque wouldn't do X".

[Something_Smart]

so, SS/BB/peta is probably my top solve right now.

If you think this is the team, why are you voting me over peta?

[Something_Smart]

you would’ve had to not claim cop for wine

I mean, this holds equally for whoever the redirector is.

[Something_Smart]

Or who had a reason for not claiming cop that he's not sharing?

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: s_s ehh ok

Why?

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla convinced me, honestly I’m pretty comfortable just sheeping her at this stage.

What did Hoopla say that was convincing?

[Something_Smart]

SS makes the most sense as a player who would try to kill a town-you N1. but SS also makes sense as a player who i suspect would consider no-killing N1 given his adeptness regarding mechanics/strategy.

How is that compelling? All it takes is one person on the scumteam saying that Menalque is a strong player for the scum to attack him. Just because peta isn't familiar with him doesn't mean nobody on his team is.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see how the need for that is obviated by it not being lylo?

[Something_Smart]

Oh I mean more

Like I’m very confident Dave is scum

But he won’t be confscum unless we’re crossvoting in lylo

Ya feel?

I guess? But if you know you'd be voting him in lylo, then you must already have solid reasoning on why he's scum, so you might as well share that reasoning now rather than waiting until then. Same goes for lilith.

I agree that their dayplay has been pretty gross, but town is perfectly capable of playing like that. And they both have mechanical reasons that make them townier, and killing one of them today brings us no closer to solving the redirector group which given how screwed-up it is could be the key to solving this game.

[Something_Smart]

Also your BoP on peta is terrible. The situations are quite different.

[Something_Smart]

The fact that Infinity is townreading Menalque is throwing me for a loop. If not for that I would want to execute Menalque and sheep him to the end of the earth if he flips town, but that feels disrespectful to Infinity.

Occam's razor says that Infinity's townread for dubious reasons is just erroneous (even if correct, Menalque himself admitted that the reasons weren't that good).

[Something_Smart]

This is like a super scummy thing to say and I am doubtful as to whether I should be trusting skitter on you to the extent that I am

Objectively it isn't because I use that mode of thinking all the time.

[Something_Smart]

That's true. But I don't think that's likely.

[Something_Smart]

That’s not at all persuasive because in this *particular* instance that line of thinking allows you to support killing town!me and to then use the place where I’m wrong (my townread on you and not having you in the PoE) to target one of the two townies who *are* in there for the win

I mean as town it allows me to support killing town-you and then use the place where you're right to target the scum for hopefully a win. It also potentially allows me to support killing scum-you.

"Person X doing Action Y is scummy because Action Y benefits them if they are scum" is not compelling if Action Y also benefits them if they are town. It's like asking the other two people to crossvote in 3p lylo. Yeah you get to hammer if you're scum, but you also get to hammer if you're town.

[Something_Smart]

I will laugh my ass off if it’s as simple as scum forgot to submit a kill in the official way or something

...That's actually the most plausible argument for lilith-scum I've heard so far.

[Something_Smart]

Sure. But there's a first time for everything.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think the team is exactly dave/peta/lilith then?

[Something_Smart]

whatever happened to this reasoning, btw

did it suddenly go away because lilith is a convenient vote, or what

this is a good point

[Something_Smart]

in particular, Menalque, you were disagreeing with skitter while she was alive despite townreading her, but once she's flipped you now want to sheep her reads. Why is that?

[Something_Smart]

I’m literally Jesus this game

Sacrificing myself to give you 2 scum, town

You are starting to sound like FL lol

[Something_Smart]

can someone else please step up and talk with me about the gamestate?

Gladly.

Usually it becomes easier to read people in a critical situation like this because scum start to more transparently play to their wincons.

But almost everybody is transparently playing to their hypothetical wincon if they are scum.

I really want to believe that Menalque is town and his persecution complex is real but him blindly sheeping skitter and pushing on lilith is really hard to wrap my head around.

[Something_Smart]

who is your top suspect?

Legit no clue.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah, of course. We're obviously not rushing this day like we rushed some of the others.

[Something_Smart]

No conclusions does not equal no solving.

Infinity and Menalque being scum together did cross my mind. It would explain the two of them writing each other off as town for pretty questionable reasons, and I do feel like Infinity's play today has been pretty gross even though I want to trust skitter and Menalque on him.

The reason I'm so stuck is that I don't feel good killing anyone in the redirector group, and yet I strongly feel we should kill someone in the redirector group today.

[Something_Smart]

Jumping on lilith immediately, pushing Menalque and then immediately backtracking him to locktown, and then jumping on literally everyone else in the redirector bracket, most notably sheeping Hoopla's stupid case on me that she soon after admitted was bad.

And all that playing the victim stuff ("oh nobody will listen to me") is unhelpful. People are listening to you, they just don't AGREE with you, probably because your worldview is heavily based on gut reads.

[Something_Smart]

@s_s Do you at least see the conflict that’s happening in my head?

I see why it's plausible as coming from town, of course, but it still seems weird and makes more sense as coming from scum than from town.

I still want to trust Menalque and skitter on you, and I have been historically bad at reading you, but I think peta is town and you and Menalque both townread each other, so either I'm wrong about peta, or one of you is wrong about the other, or you're both scum. That's the conflict that's happening in MY head.

[Something_Smart]

How do you feel about voting bird?

Seems like we would only get the votes to execute bird iff he's town. And if he's town then we're in lylo with the same fustercluck we've got today.

This is why I'd like to execute in the redirector group today.

[Something_Smart]

All I believe
Is it a dream
That comes crashing down on me
All that I hope
Is it just smoke and mirrors

[Something_Smart]

why?

Because it blatantly contradicts mechanics.

Maybe it's just a culture shock thing, but mechanics > reads always for me, even when those reads came from skitter.

[Something_Smart]

do I need to find examples of skitter being accurate or examples of me putting a high weight on skitter's opinions when she's been townflipped? cause I'm p sure I can do both

I mean if you really want to look for examples of you putting a high weight on someone's read after they've flipped town despite the mechanics (which only came to light after that person died) suggesting that read is wrong, you can, but it's not like I don't believe you would do this as town-- if I thought that I'd be voting you. As I said, I just have trouble understanding it.

[Something_Smart]

It’s kind of pissing me off that I haven’t even read anything yet and Mena is already hellbent on killing us. Let us at least get caught up first ffs!

I mean he was hellbent on it long before you were in the slot.

[Something_Smart]

I am not answering that.

Huh why not

So that means it's now to our advantage to get N_M to replace out (well, even more to our advantage than it was), because then the replacement can tell us this?

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorry. That's the way the chips fall sometimes.

[Something_Smart]

Menalque Infinity peta I guess, but I don't have to feel good about it.

[Something_Smart]

I don't have that awful sinking feeling in my gut that I got when Menalque was scum before.

But, he's not trying to execute me this time.

[Something_Smart]

I feel like S_S using mechanics to justify voting me when the mechanics are weak evidence for me being scum is fairly +scum for him, ftr

Good, because that's not why you're at the top of my list. It's because I townread peta, and I trust your townread on Infinity.

[Something_Smart]

anyone who tries to push the bullshit ("we have to kill in the redirector pool" tomorrow is MEGA SUS)

Do you mean it's bullshit now, or it's bullshit in lylo? I do agree with the latter.

[Something_Smart]

you think I'm the most likely person to be scum yet simultaneously you think my townread on infinity is legit... mmhm

Well, yeah. Your likelihood to be scum isn't related to the strength of your reads if you are town.

[Something_Smart]

how weird her night action choices were

Why were they bad?

[Something_Smart]

lili is smart and no matter how busy she was she’s the sort of person I would expect to have skimmed the wiki article for play advice which is v clearly “use it as a doctor until scum numbers are down” yet every time she had to justify it it was “i was trying to hit scum”

That's a great idea in a game where scum are probably aiming for PR's and everyone knows who the PR's are.

Hell, if she'd tried to save skitter she probably would have gotten herself killed.

[Something_Smart]

I don't understand what your point is. You think she was making pro-scum actions and trying to give town explanations? Or you think she doesn't know how she'd use a JK as town, but you know somehow?

[Something_Smart]

They conflict with what you think is best play. But bad does not equal scum.

[Something_Smart]

And furthermore doing what you suggested is way more pro-scum if she is scum JK... she can just block PR's, kill elsewhere, and go "oh I was trying to protect them."

[Something_Smart]

Whether she follows the recommended play doesn't matter. Like I said it's not like she's incapable of determining how she'd play it as town.

[Something_Smart]

One vote this entire game s_s.

Must be hard to actually do something.

It's not that, it's just that my threshold for "it's time to do something" is much higher than everyone else's.

[Something_Smart]

I'm here.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Menalque

[Something_Smart]

How many times do I have to explain my reasoning for voting you before you'll stop repeating the false claim that it's due to mechanics?

[Something_Smart]

What exactly are you arguing? That you as scum just roll over and die as your team busses you and somehow people don't find that suspicious?

[Something_Smart]

Peta, simple question: would you feel worse losing to scum!me or to scum!smart?

This is a dumb argument and you know that.

[Something_Smart]

What do you think about him not answering my question?

Which one

[Something_Smart]

Not really seeing how that’s the case pal

I mean the goal of the game is to win, not to avoid feeling bad.

You're trying to argue that because I have a minimalist playstyle I'm somehow less deserving of winning.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, look me in the eye and tell me my alignment is different to what it was in this game: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=83553

I don't know where you got the idea in your head that I'm confident on this

[Something_Smart]

Like how do I make over 400 posts here defneind myself as scum instead of getting my team to bus the shit out of me?

They are not mutually exclusive; also, if the wagon on you went super fast, bussing would be expected.[/quote]

Because if I /do/ successfully defend myself, I’m going down tomorrow, right? Like, look at how much pressure is on me, the only thing that buys scum!me another day is a scumflip

Maybe, but getting rid of peta first is a pretty huge boost to your team.

Getting my partners to defend me would be suicide for the scumteam overall because they’d go down after their connections to me once I went down tomorrow.

Not necessarily, because there will be other people who didn't defend you, and they can switch over if your execution looks inevitable, and they can make the WIFOM argument that they wouldn't be so obvious.

So, I’m only scum here if I’m hard bussing and the effort is to make me look really good. In which case, I have to have persuaded pretty much half the town to NOT vote me here even as scum are ACTIVELY SUPPORTING my death, and I’m good, but I’m not convinced I’m that good

I mean it could be one on you and one off, which you seem to have completely ignored... and even if it is two on, people have a tendency to listen to the loudest voice so it wouldn't exactly shock me if peta's whole wagon is town.

So yeah, unless you think I’m scum with exactly Dave + one of the other people I pressured and who voted me or is leaning me, you need to explain why I suicide the scumteam and lose? Ego isn’t a good enough reason because I will demonstrably make pragmatic sacrifices to win the game even if I don’t /like/ doing them

Because it's not as clear-cut as you make it out to be, and you may well have judged that getting peta exed today is worth one or both of your buddies tying themselves to you because they still have mis-executions available to them.

[Something_Smart]

Happy?

[Something_Smart]

Bc now I get to explain how your reasons are made up to look reasonable while not actually being reasonable and we get to kill scum!you for like, the first time ever!

I mean my reasons are just "your claims are extraordinary and you have given insufficient proof of them"...

[Something_Smart]

[Something_Smart]

1 - they literally aren't. The burden of proof is on you to explain why you're incapable of making 400 posts while being bussed.
2 - because scum need two mis-exes to win. If you flip scum, you're never getting the peta exe, so that's why it's so valuable to get him first.
3 - yeah it's usually suboptimal, but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I've seen people make unintuitive votes in lylo out of paranoia before. If your team thought they could save you, they might consider it to be worth the risk. Alternatively, they can always switch from peta to you, which under that same surface level analysis would make them look just as good as being on you from the beginning. (See why that analysis is a bit of a caricature? Towns are more nuanced than that, even if they do use surface-level thinking sometimes.)
4 - this doesn't make any sense. I think you're ignoring the fact that your partners bussing you increases your chance of being executed; it's not a foregone conclusion. So they need to balance looking good when you flip scum with trying to prevent you from flipping if they think they can-- and also with what they were previously saying (flipping randomly to you is gonna look weird even if you flip scum).
4b - "pushing" is kind of a charitable way to describe the people who are just passively sitting on you and not doing anything.
I don't know who your partners would be. Premature associatives are a great way to work yourself into a logical gutter. I'm not even all that confident you will flip scum.
5 - see 2. It's a mis-exe that you're never getting if you don't get now, and going to lylo is really good for scum because it requires quite a lot of coordination from town to execute scum.

[Something_Smart]

What do you even mean by "believe"

[Something_Smart]

Like I would say you're maybe 55% likely to be scum right now?

[Something_Smart]

Why @peta

[Something_Smart]

I don't believe you are scum, then, and I don't know where you got that idea in your head.

[Something_Smart]

yet you are voting me

Are you seriously giving me shit for voting without being 100% confident when there are 6 hours left in the day

Is that even what is happening right now

[Something_Smart]

I mean, again, if S_S is still around I think it would be a de facto scumclaim not to self

I will self if it comes to that, yes.

[Something_Smart]

So uh I have a few things to say

First, I'm quite annoyed by Menalque's play yesterday. I very clearly telegraphed my confusion and uncertainty before deciding at the eleventh hour that Menalque was the best compromise (and it was based on me having a strong townread on peta, which was RIGHT) only to have him rip into me because how could I possibly be so confident that he's scum, when I obviously WASN'T confident. It will be interesting to look at the wagons knowing all of peta/me/Menalque are town-- intuitively I would guess that at least one scum jumped on me because they wanted to save the Menalque/peta fight for lylo.

Second, I'm actually really glad peta was killed, because I think I was leaning him over Infinity, because I wanted to trust in Menalque and skitter's townreads of Infinity and peta's vote switching was kinda awful. I don't know why peta was killed; maybe it was just to give Infinity an excuse to drop his townread of me.

Third, when the day opened I asked myself if there was any reason not to vote Infinity immediately, and it turns out there is. It requires very specifically S&M/N_M/BB or S&M/N_M/Hoopla where N_M claimed neighborizer to cover for his real neighborizer partner and he's actually redirector. This is a pretty remote possibility, but there is no harm in taking things a little slower.

[Something_Smart]

Oh yeah, and also the PR's should claim their actions asap.

[Something_Smart]

I don’t understand this @SS, why are we even in your PoE?

If you're referring to my third point, that was just an explanation of why mechanically Infinity is not quite confscum from my POV (though he almost certainly is scum). I don't think you being scum is all that likely, though a gambit is in theory possible.

[Something_Smart]

Dave, claim your action now.

[Something_Smart]

S_S acted wrong on mechanics

I what now?

[Something_Smart]

S_S acted wrong on mechanics

I what now?

This coming from the guy who tried to argue that Menalque was guiltied, too.

[Something_Smart]

I think this is probably all town.

You think that Infinity and I killed off peta so that we'd be forced into a 1v1 today and now we're barely even pushing it?

[Something_Smart]

How are you getting that from my post?

You listed four people and said they were all town, implying that the other three are scum. Was that not your intention?

[Something_Smart]

for N_M to be fakeclaiming, it requires scum to have roleswapped, and one of the VT claims to actually be the neighbouriser. i don't see the benefit in playing such tricks, because if the real mafia neighbouriser was ever eliminated, it proves N_M to be scum.

the benefit is if N_M is the redirector

[Something_Smart]

it's probably unreasonable for me to ask for whoever is town out of SS/infinity to ignore the knowledge they have today from their perspective.

There's a difference between ignoring information and trying to work together with your team. Although executing Infinity is clearly best from my POV, there's no reason I should expect everyone else to share that view.

[Something_Smart]

you know, it actually would be a genius play if N_M was mafia redirector and BB was mafia neighbouriser and they swapped roles

I literally brought this up at the very start of the day, lol.

And I think if it is true it's a hell of a lot more likely with you than it is with BB.

[Something_Smart]

Wrt to any potential role swapping, there’s no actual evidence that scum redirected me.

...why does that have anything to do with it?

The biggest issue in the roleswap is, how did they know N_M was going to be jailed N3. If the roleswap is real, then either you are also scum, or they were going to have N_M claim to have neighborized a buddy and instead they just improvised.

[Something_Smart]

It's worth noting that scum killed in the redirector group, which is widely seen as a misplay, but S&M has shown that they think a kill in the redirector group would have been reasonable.

[Something_Smart]

Not from play, but I thought that she was probably town based on the way she played her role.

A gambit's not impossible, but it would definitely surprise me.

[Something_Smart]

s_s, who's scum (with me)?

Honestly not a clue. Probably not S&M. Probably not N_M/BB together (I don't see them intentionally colliding).

Hoopla and BB are probably not both town, because they both made awful jumps onto me yesterday.

[Something_Smart]

-snip-

But what does any of this have to do with the possibility of a roleswap? We know there's a redirector regardless.

[Something_Smart]

Why not? Are you arguing that scum never makes NKs to confuse town? That’s exactly what happened in Surprise Mafia. Scum actually NK’d a freaking lurker slot. And that wasn’t the only NK in that game that didn’t make any sense. None of them did and that’s probably what they were going for.

I'm arguing that scum NK's usually have more of a reason behind them than "confuse town", though that may be part of it. Confusion doesn't help scum unless it actually drives town to do something scum want them to do.

[Something_Smart]

I guess I’ll accept losing to absurd neighborizer gambit. Scum deserve the win if that’s the case anyway.

I don't like this argument, because it seems like emotional hedging rather than actual logic. But, I agree that the gambit is unlikely, because it requires so many moving parts.

VOTE: Infinity