Open 804: Popcorn Mafia Redux [Game Over!]

[SirCakez]

Norfolk is my strongest SR now I think
One of their last posts was all about getting me tied to Duchess scum
Seems obvious they knew Duchess was flipping scum

[SirCakez]

Mush getting the gun really makes me think I am on the right track considering Mush is all over a couple people who are not in the scum pool most people have been talking about

[SirCakez]

I don't agree with your reasoning on why MUSH got a gun. Occam's razor suggests she got one because scum felt she the most susceptible to possibly misfire, which I don't think it's completely dependent on reads

So they think Mush's reads are bad if she is most likely to misfire
What else would it be?

[SirCakez]

I think Wheme Norfolk and NM are all obvious scum at this point
The fourth is my question mark, looking at Imperium or Dunn atm

[SirCakez]

I don't agree with your reasoning on why MUSH got a gun. Occam's razor suggests she got one because scum felt she the most susceptible to possibly misfire, which I don't think it's completely dependent on reads

So they think Mush's reads are bad if she is most likely to misfire
What else would it be?

The other option here is like I said they just want to get rid of Mush because she is obvtown

[SirCakez]

look there's a reason i went on this tangent to begin with. it's because i was composing this while i was catching up:

I don't know how entirely true this is (not discrediting peta) because I don't remember N_M being an ubiquitous scumread. I sort of feared Norfolk being Godfather however when I was looking at this since a good chunk of people were saying to shoot him. What's interesting to me however is that you have (Me, RLotus, Cakez, Wheme) all claiming Duchess was a good shot D1. I want to look through how Duchess responded to each individual scumread on them

Well like I said yesterday that's my point about NM - despite their scummy play (and not just the normal trolling stuff but the people he is calling scum and town) he has gone pretty ignored mostly.

[SirCakez]

Who's Duchess?

Only mention of Duchess in NM ISO

[SirCakez]

Lots of shade casting towards Dunn, STT and Peta
Three people who are more towards the town side of my pool

[SirCakez]

I am quite invested in this game because I am 3/3 on reads so far and I feel like I can actually make an impact unlike most games where I just get yeeted in the first three days

[SirCakez]

Hey, hey guys!

Don't forget about WIFOM!

Although if I was 90% accurate it's definitely too risky for most scumteams, I wouldn't doubt expectations that I hit another scumslot before I hit green, to push for spurious "clears". Top read is most likely to be wrong, second in line I'm less sure of -- especially since second-in-line is the one pushing that my reads must all be poo. The rest could go either way, but I'd say no fewer than 2 of my 4 stated scumreads must be wrong.

I think there's a chance of this also being positioning for a deepwolf that I townread.

All of these are things I am considering.

I mean
I know I'm town and there has been a case brought up that scum want me shot more than once so it shouldn't be a surprise I'm trying to get you to change your mind

[SirCakez]

3/3 on reads so far

Who exactly? I do see your enthusiasm regardless

Lotus nulltown, Duchess scum, Mush town

Given that you are deeply scummy to me, SirCakez, and that I play an extremely sideways game of Mafia, particularly when I have /mechanical control/, it shouldn't be a surprise that you cannot change my mind unless I want you to. Hunt scum, don't try and influence me.

Fair enough

[SirCakez]

Hi Imperium how does the Duchess scum flip affect your reads?

[SirCakez]

Was Duchess a scumread of mine or a townread?

I don't know because all you talked about yesterday was Peta and me
If you said which I don't remember

[SirCakez]

Cakez: I would like you to remind me, without checking, who you think first gave Duchess a scumread. No doublechecking. I'm going to insist on that. First thought that comes to mind.

I'm guessing Lotus but I have no idea in reality

[SirCakez]

Was Duchess a scumread of mine or a townread?

I don't know because all you talked about yesterday was Peta and me
If you said which I don't remember

I did say.

Which is why you're pissing me and Tammy off this game. I am not bothered about being tunneled - people make mistakes. When you tunneled with the whole game in Family Mafia, it didn't bother me because you didn't know me.

But we've been scum partners three times. You know you tend to default to scumreading me based on our history together. So the most basic piece that I need from you is to simply read my posts and you just aren't doing that.

And if you don't respect me enough to complete step 1 and attempt to read my posts, then I won't be wasting my time talking to you.

I'm not even tunneling you at this point though? I've stated three other people as my top SRs and you in a pool of maybe-scum.

[SirCakez]

Interesting. Who second? Again, no double checking, I actually prefer you to not know the real answers here; I'm getting a feel for something in particular.

Unwnd?

[SirCakez]

Imperium, why are you treating unwnd like town if you (to my knowledge) most recently scumread them?

They dropped out of my scumreads. Tammy is more skeptical than I but my scumteam is NM/Norfolk/peta/Wheme.

We have 3/4 of the same scumreads ftr
Let's stop fighting and work through them

[SirCakez]

We have 3/4 of the same scumreads ftr
Let's stop fighting and work through them

I don't care about getting along with you this game; now that Mush has the gun I'm fairly confident we're winning. But we're going to play together in the future and there will be games where us not being able to get along will lose town the game. I need you to work on some introspection with how you're treating me so that doesn't happen.

I can't really do this until postgame or you flip because I won't know how sincere all this is or if you're scum playing mind games
That's why I just want to move forwards

[SirCakez]

Cakez, your guesses at who scumread Duchess first are insightful, because they're wrong.

Wheme was the first one to say the word. Lotus was the second. unwnd didn't scumread Duchess until nearly the very end of Day 1, partially due to not being here until then.

I am taking something useful away from this, but I'm not saying what.

Ok

[SirCakez]

Here's another thing I want to bring up. Who do you think are the most thoughtful, in the "puts a lot of thought into things" sense, players in the playerlist? NOT the best or most skilled or whatever else. Also, you can't say me. Anyone can answer. Everyone can answer. I'm looking for something.

Definitely Unwnd, Imperium and you
I don't think anyone else is even close

[SirCakez]

That's messing with me. THREE DAYS. I thought it was 5 -- still absurdly short, but way better than what we got...

Not as bad as those large themes Shea runs where everyone is a dayvig lol

[SirCakez]

Hello im glad duchess got shot

i dont see how duchess scum points to me being scum can some1 help me with that

No I just think your ISO is terrible

[SirCakez]

Well I was wrong

Unwnd why did your read on me change to null?

Also maybe I'm biased but I think the way some people were pushing Duchess felt unnatural/TMI, especially early on before rtlotus got the gun, I just don't think they were that easy to pick out and then they flipped godfather

I didn't know wheme has pushed duchess, that was interested from mush, I thought unwnd was one of the first

Who are these people?

[SirCakez]

Well I was wrong

Unwnd why did your read on me change to null?

Also maybe I'm biased but I think the way some people were pushing Duchess felt unnatural/TMI, especially early on before rtlotus got the gun, I just don't think they were that easy to pick out and then they flipped godfather

I didn't know wheme has pushed duchess, that was interested from mush, I thought unwnd was one of the first

Who are these people?

I don't know... do you have thoughts?

I was thinkign unwnd from early

Uhhhh I was expecting you to have names given that you brought up the point
Wheme can go in here. He always had Duchess in his SRs but frequently pushed elsewhere

[SirCakez]

I will be intensely annoyed if I get the gun, so much that I'll hipfire

Last time I talk about that however, just note if that is your decision then expect suboptimal hipfire into my null pool

This isn't like you

So if you're scum, this is subtle manipulation to try to avoid being shot

If you're town: Stop and think. What shot opens the gamestate? What shot is likely to be scum? There's no reason for you to be tilted and shoot wildly.

I agree that Unwnd post is not good

[SirCakez]

this is going to sound fucking terrible but as i was reading yesterday, i thought the way imperium is plying they're going to get vengekilled for sure if they're town, so i decided to gambit and bullshit a scumread on them because if scum buy that i'm hardtunneling them maybe they don't get venged, i figured they wouldn't get shot by rlotus ever but just to be safe i was like "shoot norfolk first every time", that's why i was so insistent on that order that they got on my case hardcore about, it was because i didn't actually want them shot. they came back at me so hard i actually panicked a little and talked myself into think they were scum for a bit but at some point i realized i was being a fucking idiot and tammy is obvtown, but i might as well keep it up for the sake of the gambit (and, honestly, this is terrible to admit but i felt like if i backed down there i might actually get shot). you can see how eventually i stopped attacking them at all and was basically only making arguments in self-defense and even trying to disengage entirely, because i was bluffing my read the whole time but didn't want to keep forcing arguments i didn't actually believe in. (i did get legit pissed at the BoP thing though, sorry, but that felt like it was entirely in relation to my read on them and nothing else). the whole idea was the make sure they don't get venged for the sake of an easy game and that's why i pushed them, i know it's stupid but that was my big brain plan

You're right this does sound terrible

[SirCakez]

It's Day 3 and we're only 2 missed shots from a loss. It really, really isn't that early in the game. I'd expect you to have /something/ more than what you have. Which is... Norfolk, a shot you mentioned first on page 4 and in your third post of the /entire/ game and have /never/ shifted your stance on. A handful of other reads you made on Day 1, like Wheme. Already gave you Imperium, who -- it's worth noting -- was in the /middle/ of your nulls anyway near the end of Day 1. I suppose I have to give you unwnd, but that was so close to Day 1 and Day 1 was so short that it was functionally the same day -- and unwnd was already right next to Not_Mafia at your end of Day 1 readslist, in the bottom half of the nulls. Right above Rockhopper, now petapan, who was in turn just barely outside of the scum section.

Your readslist has mostly just changed where you draw the lines at. Honestly, looking it over, it looks like you've only shifted the actual position of /maybe/ Imperium. Come on, Dunn.

Mush I think you're wrong about this because I have pretty much the same reads and I'm town
We have not gotten the flips we need to develop on the universally scumread slots

[SirCakez]

I don't need your permission to comment on things lol
I just thought I'd chip in

[SirCakez]

Ok

[SirCakez]

Mush, i'll wall you this evening.

As for whoever scumread me based on low posting: i'm sorry, but i'm in the middle of a Covid situation that is national news in the UK. I'll catch up tonight.

For now, all i'll say is that from the moment I read Lotus' reasoning for Duchess being scum day 1, I liked it and backed it without deviation. I even pushed it and hit home what was going on with Duchess and Imperium (who is locktown for me). When presented with a choice of 2 people to be scum or be shot, I always went Duchess. Now, who posted things like "Duchess might be scum, but I think i'd shoot X right now". Because that's where scum are.

Don't buy this

[SirCakez]

You're not gonna get anywhere arguing with Mush

[SirCakez]

I wish I had the gun and could just blindshoot five people the game would probably be over LOL

[SirCakez]

Norfolk Boy1 has requested replacement.

Scum replace out
Idc who comes in that needs to be shot

[SirCakez]

Lmao I see Krazy is keeping up with the scum trend of trying to have me shot

[SirCakez]

town

Who calls their predecessor's posting townie???

[SirCakez]

well Norfolk was universally scumread so I don't believe that you believe that

[SirCakez]

Also, I recognized this flaw in myself during Death Curse -- I have a bias towards townreading replacement players for at least one dayphase. I do wonder what could have possibly made me come to this conclusion.

And with that data now before me, I'll float my interim solve here: unwnd, HUB, Dunn, Wheme.

I want to see what other have to say about this.

PEDIT: Oh jeez that's a hell of a list if I'm right, two buddies in town and one in null.

I think it's decent
Not convinced on Unwnd and NM should be in there somewhere

[SirCakez]

HUB is going for the spam replace in approach to try to overwhelm the thread and older reads on their predecessor
No one should fall for it

[SirCakez]

Like his scumread on me is basically just explained as OMGUS
Krazy is not this bad

[SirCakez]

I still think Cakez is scum for trying to kill m

[SirCakez]

Like the way he's coming here and putting widely scumread players in his townreads and somewhat townread players in his scum pool reeks of scum trying to hero save the team

[SirCakez]

Like his scumread on me is basically just explained as OMGUS
Krazy is not this bad

I literally just explained why you could be town and that I could be wrong on you, but you continue to kinda tunnel me while ignoring my evaluation of you which seems an awful lot more like what you'd do as scum than as town

Why would I listen to an evaluation from a player who I strongly SR and who immediately attacked me when they entered?
Scum have been on my ass all game.

[SirCakez]

I don't OMGUS as scum just look Xeno 2

[SirCakez]

Hmm two people who never let themselves lose arguments getting into an argument? I could get popcorn for that.

[SirCakez]

HUB is going for the spam replace in approach to try to overwhelm the thread and older reads on their predecessor
No one should fall for it

[SirCakez]

Still looking for info on Imperium's and Cakez's bussing meta if anyone has it. Those parts were extremely important too.

I used to bus a lot but got yelled at for it recently after Among Us meta so I probably would not have played this game the same way if I were scum

[SirCakez]

zzzzz this game is stalling again

[SirCakez]

Ok good
I just think this kind of endless debate always ends up hurting town by increasing apathy

[SirCakez]

For real mind games Mush will shoot herself

[SirCakez]

NM and HUB and Wheme are universal scumread ya?

[SirCakez]

I can't even remember a time someone has successfully used meta to scum case me

[SirCakez]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

[SirCakez]

HUB's entire push on me is bad OMGUS in an attempt to salvage his terrible slot

pushing cakez does nothing to 'salvage my slot' unless he is a hit lmao, if he was town he'd just get the gun and shoot me, so the only way my slot is 'salvaged' by pushing him is if he is shot and flips red

I can't even parse this

My point was pushing me gets a town shot instead of you. Your slot needed a strong push elsewhere otherwise you were looking like a pretty likely candidate to eat the bullet

[SirCakez]

I'd like HUB but I'm not like ABSOLUTELY HIM NOBODY ELSE sure
I'd be happy with NM or Wheme too

[SirCakez]

I think I want to wait on Imo
I think their alignment will become clear with more flips

[SirCakez]

Imp*

[SirCakez]

I felt so bad for Mahomes he just could not get any air

[SirCakez]

Mush frankly your gun-waving demands are kind of annoying
I'm willing to help you but demanding walls and cases and defenses from other people is not really very fair or fun imo
And idc if this gets me shot or whatever

[SirCakez]

Basically I'm not gonna bend over backwards for you if that's what you're looking for from the people in your pool

[SirCakez]

Also there is no way in hell I'd be bussing Imperium here
You can argue TvT or TvS but SvS is ridiculous

[SirCakez]

If I do get shot I am probably not gonna wait too long to make my move here because this game has been getting really dragged out and I don't see much changing my mind here

[SirCakez]

Mush I think you just need to go for it whatever you feel
Not every game is some puzzle that can be solved
Especially not with the flips we have

[SirCakez]

I kinda told Lotus the same thing and it got us scum!Duchess flipped
Overthinking can be a disservice

[SirCakez]

If you're so lost then just shoot the most universally scumread person
That's the best way to progress the game

[SirCakez]

My reads haven't evolved because all of them have been correct so far and my top scumreads have not been shot. Why would I change anything?

[SirCakez]

Idk I can't change your mind at this point so do what you want

[SirCakez]

alrighty finally

[SirCakez]

If that's real scum just won

[SirCakez]

First read I was wrong on :/
@imperium we can have the discussion you want post-game
This even moreso reinforces that scum were going for the "shoot Cakez shoot imperium" game ender (along with the fact that both Duchess and HUB were pushing me hella hard obviously)

But HUB was scum so I'm happy with that
I want NM or Wheme today

[SirCakez]

Aside from me Imperium kill points to Peta or STT I think?

[SirCakez]

Also I want to go back and look at all the people who were defending Norfolk as awkward limbait

[SirCakez]

shoot norfolk

Early distancing?

[SirCakez]

My list:

Netflix
Imperium
Mush
Not Mafia
Lotus
Unwnd
Cakez
Dunnstral
Duchess
Wheme
Rockhopper
ScrewTheTells

Ultimately, I don't mind being shot as it would clear all tbe gubbins around me up and we could move on, but I don't consider it a good trade for Netflix.

My town leanings are:

Imperium, based mainly on the interactions with Cakez and what I consider to be a parallel scenario with misreps.

Mush's application of logic is what I live for and I rate it highly.

Not Mafia is so reserved at the moment and based on my experience that's a little towntell.

Lotus was a little scumread for me earlier, but the back and forth with Duchess and the assessment in posts 437 and 439 have resonated with me. I like the theory and this comes across as genuine scumhunting.

I'm on the fence about Unwnd, Cakez and Dunnstral right now. I still feel that Cakez is just having a western and I don't think they're the right shot at the moment.

I wouldn't object to a Duchess or Wheme shot, both feel like they could flip scum.

Quiet Rockhopper isn't the gung ho town Rockhopper that I know.

And ScrewTheTells is my number 1 choice as previously mentioned.

Hmmm
STT more likely town
Wheme and NM more likely scum

[SirCakez]

Yeah I was thinking about that
Every scum shot from now on gives us one more mis-shoot to work with. We've been stuck at two from GG forever so hopefully we can get that threshold up.

[SirCakez]

How does Norfolk slot being scum make me scum

I make 0 sense being partner with Norfolk lmfao

HUB basically ignored you

[SirCakez]

Wheme would be louder as scum unless he's like, mellowed a looot since I last played with him, I can reread that iso though I'm just going on a tone guttake right now

Except for when he was giving you crappy townreads

[SirCakez]

And who was saying shoot cakez?

Duchess and HUB

[SirCakez]

First read I was wrong on :/
@imperium we can have the discussion you want post-game
This even moreso reinforces that scum were going for the "shoot Cakez shoot imperium" game ender (along with the fact that both Duchess and HUB were pushing me hella hard obviously)

But HUB was scum so I'm happy with that
I want NM or Wheme today

How does this reinforce that if imperium got killed?

Because we now know Imp was town
If Imp was scum obviously the theory was wrong

[SirCakez]

I mean there's only three people you didn't name Dunn, STT and me
I wouldn't call any of us "deep wolves"

[SirCakez]

I think it's just Wheme, NM, and one of Peta or Dunn

[SirCakez]

Aside from me Imperium kill points to Peta or STT I think?

i feel like anyone would have killed imperium because they were never going to be shot

although it's probably STT

Yo mush good job btw peta is next right

lol ok

Except they could have been..i expressed a lot of suspicion of them and a few others did iirc

[SirCakez]

Imagine if we shot Norfolk day 1 like everyone wanted, except Imperium, Netflix, Not_mafia and Wheme*.

Okay now don't repeat the mistake. Shoot top scum. Mush, why do you think Not_mafia is not top scum? Admittedly I was pretty wrong about Imperium but they weren't my top scum pick.

* (Just checked: Wheme notably voted Norfolk first but then quickly said it was for the lols and started going against it. Also for what it's worth, according to peta's chart MUSH didn't go after norfolk day 1 either.)
---

Aside from me Imperium kill points to Peta or STT I think?

i feel like anyone would have killed imperium because they were never going to be shot

although it's probably STT

I'm confused why my name was suddenly mentioned in this context. What's the logic behind scum-STT wanting Imperium dead? (Relative to other players)

I'm still looking at early Norfolk interactions. I agree late Norfolk/HUB was just trying to distract. Cakez saw right through that lol, good call. I almost wanted to believe HUB...meh his wild takes were tempting. My gut wants to say he was on the 1st level of WIFOM (tell lies) but I've had a bad record of trying to guess WIFOM in mafia and my rule of thumb is to ignore it. Maybe there's a chance here though since we know his likely goals?

Imp suspected you at the end of yesterday

[SirCakez]

I think we need to keep going on the route of shooting the universal scumreads
We can hero-shoot for deep wolves once the obviously scummy slots are cleared out and we (hopefully) have some breathing room for mis-shots

[SirCakez]

Hahaha you think I'm bussing
You should check out the BooneyToonz game that just ended where I literally refused to bus until there was literally no other option

[SirCakez]

But it doesn't matter as long as we clear out the obvcum I won't be offended if you shoot me

[SirCakez]

I pretty much agree Mush my one question is where does Dunn fit in? Because he has read increasingly scummy to me

[SirCakez]

I pretty much agree Mush my one question is where does Dunn fit in? Because he has read increasingly scummy to me

???

Go back and look at my pushes this game

I can't remember literally any of them

[SirCakez]

I don't even see the point in arguing more
Once Mush gets what she needs shoot and move on

[SirCakez]

Why couldn't peta v imp TvT?
Me vs Imp was

[SirCakez]

Imp is not always right
I think Peta has a decent chance of being scum but I don't like this dichotomy where one of Imp and Peta HAD to be scum

[SirCakez]

I know imp isn’t always right they scumread me. Difference is they said they have a hard meta case on peta and they were 100% sure that it was correct.

what's your point? them thinking it's 100% correct does not = 100% correct in reality

[SirCakez]

Why would I be killed when the gun holder said I was their top SR at the end of yesterday?

[SirCakez]

This debate is pointless

[SirCakez]

STT why does it matter? Not mafia will be yeeted very shortly anyways.

[SirCakez]

mmmmmmm

[SirCakez]

I still think not mafia is highly likely to be scum but I have to reevaluate now

[SirCakez]

You sound worried Peta

[SirCakez]

I mean I know it's LyLo but I'm not that worried about a hipfire because I think the pool Wheme suggested is pretty good
The way you said "please don't hipfire" right after Wheme put you up sounded panicky in a not good way

[SirCakez]

I mean for everyone except Wheme at this point there is a pool of five people and you need to pick three scum out of it

[SirCakez]

Like I said yesterday the Imperium kill really points to Peta so heavily because they were definitely misshootable

[SirCakez]

Aside from me Imperium kill points to Peta or STT I think?

[SirCakez]

I'm here and praying
I yelled at Syr on discord

[SirCakez]

If Wheme and NM were both town then we deserved this loss

[SirCakez]

I don't see scum gloating so we got one?

[SirCakez]

GG

[SirCakez]

I think this setup still needs more tweaking; it feels slightly scumsided because town only got three "miselims" when in a normal 13p town should have four.
That said scum deserved the win here.

[SirCakez]

I should have dug more into that Imperium kill

[SirCakez]

I think this setup still needs more tweaking; it feels slightly scumsided because town only got three "miselims" when in a normal 13p town should have four.
That said scum deserved the win here.

Maybe one less scum but keep the vengekill and gf bomb kill and this feels pretty fair but idk I haven't looked at the other iterations

[SirCakez]

This was such a good list and I like the format, love you guys! Thanks for shooting me it was fun!

Yes this was a very fun game ^.^

[SirCakez]

Mush you were good don't worry
All of town who was left the last two days had bad reads

[SirCakez]

Just look at your ISO dude
You spent so much time midgame just popping in and out with random comments
Your scumhunting seemed fake

[SirCakez]

while acting pompous and condescending in the process

I can understand everything else you said but this I can't understand.
I specifically try to avoid doing this in my play because it bothers me when other people do this too.
I am not sure where you're getting this from because there was never a point where I was lording over you guys or something.

[SirCakez]

Thanks everyone for playing! I hope this iteration of popcorn made it fun for both sides!

I think this setup still needs more tweaking; it feels slightly scumsided because town only got three "miselims" when in a normal 13p town should have four.
That said scum deserved the win here.

Maybe one less scum but keep the vengekill and gf bomb kill and this feels pretty fair but idk I haven't looked at the other iterations

I think you meant 2 mislims vs the normal 3, but the point is noted.

I ran simulations and the way this setup works is that basically the more accurate town is, the more screwed scum are. Like even a small increase in accuracy from shooters results in a huge swing against scum. Just 5% more accuracy on the town's part swings almost 10% of games in town's favor.

With regards to the mislims, I considered changing scum's wincon from "half or more" to "more than half", which makes it such that scum needs to exceed the number of town and town gets its three mislims. However, I think the reduction in average mislims is good for this setup due to the late game swing towards town. Once scum exhaust their tools each correct elimination directly adds more mislims into town's pocket and makes uphill climbs for scum almost impossible. Therefore I think having a slightly more dangerous early game is both balanced and actually slightly beneficial to town as it further discourages rushing, hero shots and hipfires. This setup is all about good day play on both sides. It is absolutely swingy but personally I think it's pretty well balanced. Assuming town shoots correctly slightly more than half the time (55% of the time, in my sims), town will win 52% of games.

This all being said, I am absolutely open to feedback from both teams (please give me feedback!) and I will run a tweaked version of this in the future. I already have some ideas on how to make it slightly better feeling for scum (not in terms of power, but rather agency).

?
In a 13p town can have four miselims: 10v3, 8v3, 6v3, 4v3
Here we had three mis-shots - on Lotus, Wheme and NM

[SirCakez]

Yeah after this game I have no clue
My "read him using other people" tactic didn't work